A 40-year plan for energy
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0:00 - 0:02America's public energy conversation
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0:02 - 0:05boils down to this question:
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0:05 - 0:08Would you rather die of A) oil wars,
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0:08 - 0:11or B) climate change,
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0:11 - 0:12or C) nuclear holocaust,
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0:12 - 0:15or D) all of the above?
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0:15 - 0:18Oh, I missed one: or E) none of the above?
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0:18 - 0:20That's the one we're not normally offered.
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0:20 - 0:22What if we could make energy do our work
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0:22 - 0:25without working our undoing?
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0:25 - 0:27Could we have fuel without fear?
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0:27 - 0:29Could we reinvent fire?
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0:29 - 0:31You see, fire made us human;
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0:31 - 0:33fossil fuels made us modern.
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0:33 - 0:34But now we need a new fire
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0:34 - 0:38that makes us safe, secure, healthy and durable.
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0:38 - 0:40Let's see how.
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0:40 - 0:43Four-fifths of the world's energy
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0:43 - 0:45still comes from burning each year
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0:45 - 0:48four cubic miles of the rotted remains
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0:48 - 0:51of primeval swamp goo.
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0:51 - 0:53Those fossil fuels
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0:53 - 0:56have built our civilization.
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0:56 - 0:58They've created our wealth.
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0:58 - 1:00They've enriched the lives of billions.
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1:00 - 1:02But they also have rising costs
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1:02 - 1:07to our security, economy, health and environment
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1:07 - 1:10that are starting to erode, if not outweigh their benefits.
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1:10 - 1:12So we need a new fire.
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1:12 - 1:15And switching from the old fire to the new fire
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1:15 - 1:19means changing two big stories about oil and electricity,
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1:19 - 1:24each of which puts two-fifths of the fossil carbon in the air.
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1:24 - 1:26But they're really quite distinct.
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1:26 - 1:29Less than one percent of our electricity is made from oil --
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1:29 - 1:33although almost half is made from coal.
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1:33 - 1:35Their uses are quite concentrated.
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1:35 - 1:38Three-fourths of our oil fuel is transportation.
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1:38 - 1:41Three-fourths of our electricity powers buildings.
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1:41 - 1:43And the rest of both runs factories.
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1:43 - 1:47So very efficient vehicles, buildings and factories
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1:47 - 1:48save oil and coal,
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1:48 - 1:52and also natural gas that can displace both of them.
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1:52 - 1:56But today's energy system is not just inefficient,
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1:56 - 1:58it is also disconnected,
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1:58 - 2:00aging, dirty and insecure.
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2:00 - 2:03So it needs refurbishment.
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2:03 - 2:06By 2050 though, it could become efficient,
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2:06 - 2:09connected and distributed
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2:09 - 2:11with elegantly frugal
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2:11 - 2:14autos, factories and buildings
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2:14 - 2:16all relying on a modern, secure
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2:16 - 2:19and resilient electricity system.
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2:19 - 2:24We can eliminate our addiction to oil and coal by 2050
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2:24 - 2:27and use one-third less natural gas
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2:27 - 2:30while switching to efficient use
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2:30 - 2:33and renewable supply.
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2:33 - 2:36This could cost, by 2050,
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2:36 - 2:39five trillion dollars less in net present value,
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2:39 - 2:42that is expressed as a lump sum today,
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2:42 - 2:44than business as usual --
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2:44 - 2:45assuming that carbon emissions
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2:45 - 2:48and all other hidden or external costs are worth zero --
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2:48 - 2:52a conservatively low estimate.
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2:52 - 2:54Yet this cheaper energy system
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2:54 - 2:58could support 158 percent bigger U.S. economy
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2:58 - 3:00all without needing oil or coal,
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3:00 - 3:03or for that matter nuclear energy.
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3:03 - 3:06Moreover, this transition needs no new inventions
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3:06 - 3:09and no acts of Congress
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3:09 - 3:13and no new federal taxes, mandate subsidies or laws
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3:13 - 3:16and running Washington gridlock.
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3:16 - 3:17Let me say that again.
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3:17 - 3:20I'm going to tell you how to get the United States
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3:20 - 3:23completely off oil and coal, five trillion dollars cheaper
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3:23 - 3:25with no act of Congress
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3:25 - 3:27led by business for profit.
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3:27 - 3:31In other words, we're going to use our most effective institutions --
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3:31 - 3:35private enterprise co-evolving with civil society
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3:35 - 3:37and sped by military innovation
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3:37 - 3:40to go around our least effective institutions.
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3:40 - 3:42And whether you care most
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3:42 - 3:46about profits and jobs and competitive advantage
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3:46 - 3:48or national security, or environmental stewardship
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3:48 - 3:50and climate protection and public health,
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3:50 - 3:55reinventing fire makes sense and makes money.
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3:55 - 3:58General Eisenhower reputedly said
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3:58 - 4:01that enlarging the boundaries of a tough problem
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4:01 - 4:05makes it soluble by encompassing more options and more synergies.
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4:05 - 4:07So in reinventing fire,
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4:07 - 4:10we integrated all four sectors that use energy --
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4:10 - 4:14transportation, buildings, industry and electricity --
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4:14 - 4:16and we integrated four kinds of innovation,
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4:16 - 4:19not just technology and policy,
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4:19 - 4:22but also design and business strategy.
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4:22 - 4:24Those combinations yield
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4:24 - 4:26very much more than the sum of the parts,
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4:26 - 4:32especially in creating deeply disruptive business opportunities.
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4:32 - 4:36Oil costs our economy two billion dollars a day,
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4:36 - 4:38plus another four billion dollars a day
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4:38 - 4:41in hidden economic and military costs,
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4:41 - 4:44raising its total cost to over a sixth of GDP.
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4:44 - 4:47Our mobility fuel goes three-fifths to automobiles.
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4:47 - 4:50So let's start by making autos oil free.
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4:50 - 4:53Two-thirds of the energy it takes to move a typical car
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4:53 - 4:55is caused by its weight.
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4:55 - 4:59And every unit of energy you save at the wheels,
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4:59 - 5:00by taking out weight or drag,
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5:00 - 5:02saves seven units in the tank,
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5:02 - 5:04because you don't have to waste six units
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5:04 - 5:06getting the energy to the wheels.
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5:06 - 5:09Unfortunately, over the past quarter century,
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5:09 - 5:12epidemic obesity has made our two-ton steel cars
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5:12 - 5:16gain weight twice as fast as we have.
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5:16 - 5:19But today, ultralight, ultrastrong materials,
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5:19 - 5:22like carbon fiber composites,
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5:22 - 5:24can make dramatic weight savings snowball
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5:24 - 5:28and can make cars simpler and cheaper to build.
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5:28 - 5:31Lighter and more slippery autos
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5:31 - 5:33need less force to move them,
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5:33 - 5:35so their engines get smaller.
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5:35 - 5:38Indeed, that sort of vehicle fitness
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5:38 - 5:41then makes electric propulsion affordable
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5:41 - 5:44because the batteries or fuel cells
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5:44 - 5:48also get smaller and lighter and cheaper.
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5:48 - 5:52So sticker prices will ultimately fall to about the same as today,
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5:52 - 5:55while the driving cost, even from the start,
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5:55 - 5:57is very much lower.
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5:57 - 6:01So these innovations together can transform automakers
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6:01 - 6:04from wringing tiny savings
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6:04 - 6:07out of Victorian engine and seal-stamping technologies
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6:07 - 6:10to the steeply falling costs
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6:10 - 6:15of three linked innovations that strongly reenforce each other --
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6:15 - 6:19namely ultralight materials, making them into structures
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6:19 - 6:21and electric propulsion.
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6:21 - 6:26The sales can grow and the prices fall even faster
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6:26 - 6:27with temporary feebates,
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6:27 - 6:30that is rebates for efficient new autos
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6:30 - 6:33paid for by fees on inefficient ones.
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6:33 - 6:36And just in the first two years
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6:36 - 6:39the biggest of Europe's five feebate programs
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6:39 - 6:43has tripled the speed of improving automotive efficiency.
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6:43 - 6:47The resulting shift to electric autos
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6:47 - 6:48is going to be as game-changing
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6:48 - 6:52as shifting from typewriters to the gains in computers.
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6:52 - 6:54Of course, computers and electronics
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6:54 - 6:57are now America's biggest industry,
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6:57 - 6:59while typewriter makers have vanished.
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6:59 - 7:01So vehicle fitness
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7:01 - 7:04opens a new automotive competitive strategy
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7:04 - 7:07that can double the oil savings over the next 40 years,
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7:07 - 7:10but then also make electrification affordable,
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7:10 - 7:14and that displaces the rest of the oil.
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7:14 - 7:18America could lead this next automotive revolution.
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7:18 - 7:20Currently the leader is Germany.
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7:20 - 7:23Last year, Volkswagen announced
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7:23 - 7:25that by next year they'll be producing
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7:25 - 7:28this carbon fiber plugin hybrid
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7:28 - 7:30getting 230 miles a gallon.
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7:30 - 7:33Also last year, BMW announced
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7:33 - 7:35this carbon fiber electric car,
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7:35 - 7:37they said that its carbon fiber is paid for
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7:37 - 7:39by needing fewer batteries.
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7:39 - 7:42And they said, "We do not intend to be a typewriter maker."
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7:42 - 7:45Audi claimed it's going to beat them both by a year.
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7:45 - 7:48Seven years ago, an even faster and cheaper
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7:48 - 7:51American manufacturing technology
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7:51 - 7:59was used to make this little carbon fiber test part,
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7:59 - 8:01which doubles as a carbon cap.
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8:01 - 8:02(Laughter)
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8:02 - 8:06In one minute -- and you can tell from the sound
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8:06 - 8:08how immensely stiff and strong it is.
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8:08 - 8:12Don't worry about dropping it, it's tougher than titanium.
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8:12 - 8:14Tom Friedman actually whacked it as hard as he could with a sledgehammer
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8:14 - 8:16without even scuffing it.
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8:16 - 8:18But such manufacturing techniques
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8:18 - 8:21can scale to automotive speed and cost
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8:21 - 8:22with aerospace performance.
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8:22 - 8:26They can save four-fifths of the capital needed to make autos.
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8:26 - 8:27They can save lives
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8:27 - 8:28because this stuff can absorb
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8:28 - 8:32up to 12 times as much crash energy per pound as steel.
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8:32 - 8:33If we made all of our autos this way,
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8:33 - 8:36it would save oil equivalent to finding
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8:36 - 8:39one and a half Saudi Arabias, or half an OPEC,
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8:39 - 8:44by drilling in the Detroit formation, a very prospective play.
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8:44 - 8:46And all those mega-barrels under Detroit
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8:46 - 8:49cost an average of 18 bucks a barrel.
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8:49 - 8:51They are all-American, carbon-free
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8:51 - 8:53and inexhaustible.
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8:53 - 8:56The same physics and the same business logic
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8:56 - 8:57also apply to big vehicles.
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8:57 - 9:00In the five years ending with 2010,
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9:00 - 9:04Walmart saved 60 percent of the fuel per ton-mile
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9:04 - 9:06in its giant fleet of heavy trucks
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9:06 - 9:07through better logistics and design.
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9:07 - 9:10But just the technological savings in heavy trucks
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9:10 - 9:12can get to two-thirds.
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9:12 - 9:15And combined with triple to quintuple efficiency airplanes,
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9:15 - 9:17now on the drawing board,
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9:17 - 9:19can save close to a trillion dollars.
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9:19 - 9:24Also today's military revolution in energy efficiency
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9:24 - 9:27is going to speed up all of these civilian advances
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9:27 - 9:29in much the same way that military R&D
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9:29 - 9:33has given us the Internet, the Global Positioning System
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9:33 - 9:36and the jet engine and microchip industries.
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9:36 - 9:39As we design and build vehicles better,
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9:39 - 9:41we can also use them smarter
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9:41 - 9:43by harnessing four powerful techniques
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9:43 - 9:45for eliminating needless driving.
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9:45 - 9:48Instead of just seeing the travel grow,
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9:48 - 9:51we can use innovative pricing,
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9:51 - 9:55charging for road infrastructure by the mile, not by the gallon.
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9:55 - 9:58We can use some smart IT to enhance transit
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9:58 - 10:02and enable car sharing and ride sharing.
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10:02 - 10:06We can allow smart and lucrative growth models
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10:06 - 10:10that help people already be near where they want to be,
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10:10 - 10:12so they don't need to go somewhere else.
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10:12 - 10:14And we can use smart IT
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10:14 - 10:16to make traffic free-flowing.
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10:16 - 10:19Together, those things can give us the same or better access
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10:19 - 10:24with 46 to 84 percent less driving,
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10:24 - 10:26saving another 0.4 trillion dollars,
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10:26 - 10:31plus 0.3 trillion dollars from using trucks more productively.
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10:31 - 10:34So 40 years hence, when you add it all up,
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10:34 - 10:37a far more mobile U.S. economy
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10:37 - 10:39can use no oil.
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10:39 - 10:42Saving or displacing barrels for 25 bucks
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10:42 - 10:44rather than buying them for over a hundred,
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10:44 - 10:48adds up to a $4 trillion net saving
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10:48 - 10:51counting all the hidden costs at zero.
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10:51 - 10:54So to get mobility without oil,
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10:54 - 10:56to phase out the oil,
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10:56 - 10:59we can get efficient and then switch fuels.
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10:59 - 11:03Those 125 to 240 mile-per-gallon-equivalent autos
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11:03 - 11:07can use any mixture of hydrogen fuel cells,
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11:07 - 11:10electricity and advanced biofuels.
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11:10 - 11:14The trucks and planes can realistically use
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11:14 - 11:17hydrogen or advanced biofuels.
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11:17 - 11:19The trucks could even use natural gas.
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11:19 - 11:21But no vehicles will need oil.
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11:21 - 11:24And the most biofuel we might need,
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11:24 - 11:26just three million barrels a day,
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11:26 - 11:27can be made two-thirds from waste
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11:27 - 11:29without displacing any cropland
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11:29 - 11:32and without harming soil or climate.
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11:32 - 11:34Our team speeds up these kinds of oil savings
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11:34 - 11:37by what we call "institutional acupuncture."
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11:37 - 11:39We figure out where the business logic
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11:39 - 11:41is congested and not flowing properly,
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11:41 - 11:43we stick little needles in it to get it flowing,
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11:43 - 11:45working with partners like Ford and Walmart and the Pentagon.
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11:45 - 11:49And the long transition is already well under way.
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11:49 - 11:53In fact, three years ago mainstream analysts were starting to see peak oil,
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11:53 - 11:56not in supply, but in demand.
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11:56 - 12:01And Deutsche Bank even said world oil use could peak around 2016.
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12:01 - 12:06In other words, oil is getting uncompetitive even at low prices
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12:06 - 12:10before it becomes unavailable even at high prices.
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12:10 - 12:13But the electrified vehicles
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12:13 - 12:16don't need to burden the electricity grid.
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12:16 - 12:19Rather, when smart autos exchange electricity and information
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12:19 - 12:22through smart buildings with smart grids,
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12:22 - 12:25they're adding to the grid valuable flexibility and storage
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12:25 - 12:27that help the grid integrate
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12:27 - 12:30varying solar and wind power.
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12:30 - 12:31So the electrified autos
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12:31 - 12:34make the auto and electricity problems
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12:34 - 12:36easier to solve together than separately.
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12:36 - 12:38And they also converge the oil story
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12:38 - 12:41with our second big story,
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12:41 - 12:44saving electricity and then making it differently.
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12:44 - 12:47And those twin revolutions in electricity
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12:47 - 12:50will bring to that sector
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12:50 - 12:53more numerous and profound and diverse disruptions
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12:53 - 12:54than any other sector,
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12:54 - 12:59because we've got 21st century technology and speed colliding head-on
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12:59 - 13:03with 20th and 19th century institutions, rules and cultures.
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13:03 - 13:06Changing how we make electricity gets easier
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13:06 - 13:09if we need less of it.
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13:09 - 13:11Most of it now is wasted
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13:11 - 13:13and the technologies for saving it
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13:13 - 13:16keep improving faster than we're installing them.
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13:16 - 13:18So the unbought efficiency resource
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13:18 - 13:21keeps getting ever bigger and cheaper.
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13:21 - 13:24But as efficiency in buildings and industry
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13:24 - 13:26starts to grow faster than the economy,
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13:26 - 13:30America's electricity use could actually shrink,
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13:30 - 13:34even with the little extra use required
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13:34 - 13:36for those efficient electrified autos.
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13:36 - 13:41And we can do this just by reasonably accelerating existing trends.
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13:41 - 13:43Over the next 40 years, buildings,
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13:43 - 13:45which use three-quarters of the electricity,
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13:45 - 13:49can triple or quadruple their energy productivity,
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13:49 - 13:53saving 1.4 trillion dollars, net present value,
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13:53 - 13:57with a 33 percent internal rate of return
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13:57 - 13:58or in English,
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13:58 - 14:02the savings are worth four times what they cost.
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14:02 - 14:04And industry can accelerate too,
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14:04 - 14:06doubling its energy productivity
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14:06 - 14:08with a 21 percent internal rate of return.
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14:08 - 14:11The key is a disruptive innovation
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14:11 - 14:13that we call integrative design
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14:13 - 14:16that often makes very big energy savings
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14:16 - 14:19cost less than small or no savings.
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14:19 - 14:21That is, it can give you expanding returns,
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14:21 - 14:23not diminishing returns.
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14:23 - 14:27That is how our 2010 retrofit
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14:27 - 14:30is saving over two-fifths of the energy in the Empire State Building --
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14:30 - 14:34remanufacturing those six and a half thousand windows on site
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14:34 - 14:39into super windows that pass light, but reflect heat.
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14:39 - 14:42plus better lights and office equipment and such
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14:42 - 14:45cut the maximum cooling load by a third.
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14:45 - 14:50And then renovating smaller chillers instead of adding bigger ones
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14:50 - 14:52saved 17 million dollars of
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14:52 - 14:55capital cost, which helped pay for the other improvements
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14:55 - 14:59and reduce the payback to just three years.
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14:59 - 15:02Integrative design can also increase
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15:02 - 15:04energy savings in industry.
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15:04 - 15:06Dow's billion-dollar efficiency investment
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15:06 - 15:09has already returned nine billion dollars.
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15:09 - 15:12But industry as a whole has another half-trillion dollars
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15:12 - 15:14of energy still to save.
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15:14 - 15:19For example, three-fifths of the world's electricity runs motors.
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15:19 - 15:21Half of that runs pumps and fans.
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15:21 - 15:24And those can all be made more efficient,
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15:24 - 15:26and the motors that turn them
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15:26 - 15:29can have their system efficiency roughly doubled
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15:29 - 15:33by integrating 35 improvements, paying back in about a year.
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15:33 - 15:36But first we ought to be capturing bigger, cheaper savings
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15:36 - 15:39that are normally ignored and are not in the textbooks.
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15:39 - 15:42For example, pumps, the biggest use of motors,
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15:42 - 15:44move liquid through pipes.
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15:44 - 15:46But a standard industrial pumping loop
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15:46 - 15:50was redesigned to use at least 86 percent less energy,
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15:50 - 15:52not by getting better pumps,
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15:52 - 15:55but just by replacing long, thin, crooked pipes
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15:55 - 15:58with fat, short, straight pipes.
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15:58 - 16:01This is not about new technology,
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16:01 - 16:03it's just rearranging our metal furniture.
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16:03 - 16:06Of course, it also shrinks the pumping equipment
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16:06 - 16:07and its capital costs.
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16:07 - 16:10So what do such savings mean
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16:10 - 16:14for the electricity that is three-fifths used in motors?
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16:14 - 16:17Well, from the coal burned at the power plant
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16:17 - 16:20through all these compounding losses,
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16:20 - 16:23only a tenth of the fuel energy
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16:23 - 16:26actually ends up coming out the pipe as flow.
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16:26 - 16:29But now let's turn those compounding losses around backwards,
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16:29 - 16:35and every unit of flow or friction that we save in the pipe
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16:35 - 16:39saves 10 units of fuel cost, pollution
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16:39 - 16:42and what Hunter Lovins calls "global weirding"
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16:42 - 16:43back at the power plant.
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16:43 - 16:45And of course, as you go back upstream,
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16:45 - 16:48the components get smaller and therefore cheaper.
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16:48 - 16:53Our team has lately found such snowballing energy savings
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16:53 - 16:56in more than 30 billion dollars worth of industrial redesigns --
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16:56 - 16:59everything from data centers and chip fabs
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16:59 - 17:01to mines and refineries.
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17:01 - 17:02Typically our retrofit designs
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17:02 - 17:05save about 30 to 60 percent of the energy
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17:05 - 17:07and pay back in a few years,
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17:07 - 17:11while the new facility designs save 40 to 90-odd percent
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17:11 - 17:14with generally lower capital cost.
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17:14 - 17:17Now needing less electricity
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17:17 - 17:19would ease and speed
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17:19 - 17:22the shift to new sources of electricity, chiefly renewables.
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17:22 - 17:27China leads their explosive growth and their plummeting cost.
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17:27 - 17:30In fact, these solar power module costs
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17:30 - 17:33have just fallen off the bottom of the chart.
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17:33 - 17:36And Germany now has more solar workers
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17:36 - 17:38than America has steel workers.
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17:38 - 17:40Already in about 20 states
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17:40 - 17:43private installers will come
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17:43 - 17:46put those cheap solar cells on your roof with no money down
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17:46 - 17:48and beat your utility bill.
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17:48 - 17:50Such unregulated products
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17:50 - 17:53could ultimately add up to a virtual utility
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17:53 - 17:56that bypasses your electric company
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17:56 - 18:00just as your cellphone bypassed your wireline phone company.
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18:00 - 18:03And this sort of thing gives utility executives the heebee-jeebees
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18:03 - 18:05and it gives venture capitalists sweet dreams.
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18:05 - 18:08Renewables are no longer a fringe activity.
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18:08 - 18:11For each of the past four years
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18:11 - 18:14half of the world's new generating capacity
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18:14 - 18:15has been renewable,
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18:15 - 18:17mainly lately in developing countries.
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18:17 - 18:21In 2010, renewables other than big hydro,
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18:21 - 18:24particularly wind and solar cells,
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18:24 - 18:29got 151 billion dollars of private investment,
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18:29 - 18:31and they actually surpassed the total installed capacity
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18:31 - 18:33of nuclear power in the world
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18:33 - 18:36by adding 60 billion watts in that one year.
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18:36 - 18:40That happens to be the same amount of solar cell capacity
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18:40 - 18:43that the world can now make every year --
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18:43 - 18:46a number that goes up 60 or 70 percent a year.
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18:46 - 18:52In contrast, the net additions of nuclear capacity and coal capacity
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18:52 - 18:55and the orders behind those keep fading
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18:55 - 18:58because they cost too much and they have too much financial risk.
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18:58 - 18:59In fact in this country,
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18:59 - 19:01no new nuclear power plant
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19:01 - 19:04has been able to raise any private construction capital,
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19:04 - 19:08despite seven years of 100-plus percent subsidies.
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19:08 - 19:12So how else could we replace the coal-fired power plants?
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19:12 - 19:16Well efficiency and gas can displace them all
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19:16 - 19:19at just below their operating cost
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19:19 - 19:23and, combined with renewables, can displace them more than 23 times
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19:23 - 19:25at less than their replacement cost.
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19:25 - 19:27But we only need to replace them once.
-
19:27 - 19:29We're often told though
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19:29 - 19:32that only coal and nuclear plants can keep the lights on,
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19:32 - 19:33because they're 24/7,
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19:33 - 19:36whereas wind and solar power are variable,
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19:36 - 19:39and hence supposedly unreliable.
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19:39 - 19:42Actually no generator is 24/7. They all break.
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19:42 - 19:44And when a big plant goes down,
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19:44 - 19:47you lose a thousand megawatts in milliseconds,
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19:47 - 19:51often for weeks or months, often without warning.
-
19:51 - 19:53That is exactly why we've designed the grid
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19:53 - 19:57to back up failed plants with working plants.
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19:57 - 19:59And in exactly the same way,
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19:59 - 20:04the grid can handle wind and solar power's
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20:04 - 20:06forecastable variations.
-
20:06 - 20:10Hourly simulations
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20:10 - 20:13show that largely or wholly renewable grids
-
20:13 - 20:15can deliver highly reliable power
-
20:15 - 20:17when they're forecasted,
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20:17 - 20:19integrated and diversified
-
20:19 - 20:21by both type and location.
-
20:21 - 20:25And that's true both for continental areas like the U.S. or Europe
-
20:25 - 20:29and for smaller areas embedded within a larger grid.
-
20:29 - 20:31That is how, for example,
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20:31 - 20:34four German states in 2010
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20:34 - 20:36were 43 to 52 percent wind powered.
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20:36 - 20:40Portugal was 45 percent renewable powered,
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20:40 - 20:42Denmark 36.
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20:42 - 20:45And it's how all of Europe can shift
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20:45 - 20:47to renewable electricity.
-
20:47 - 20:51In America, our aging, dirty and insecure power system
-
20:51 - 20:54has to be replaced anyway by 2050.
-
20:54 - 20:56And whatever we replace it with
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20:56 - 20:57is going to cost about the same,
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20:57 - 21:00about six trillion dollars at present value --
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21:00 - 21:02whether we buy more of what we've got
-
21:02 - 21:04or new nuclear and so-called clean coal,
-
21:04 - 21:08or renewables that are more or less centralized.
-
21:08 - 21:11But those four futures at the same cost
-
21:11 - 21:13differ profoundly in their risks,
-
21:13 - 21:16around national security,
-
21:16 - 21:19fuel, water, finance, technology,
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21:19 - 21:21climate and health.
-
21:21 - 21:24For example, our over-centralized grid
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21:24 - 21:28is very vulnerable to cascading
-
21:28 - 21:30and potentially economy-shattering blackouts
-
21:30 - 21:34caused by bad space weather or other natural disasters
-
21:34 - 21:36or a terrorist attack.
-
21:36 - 21:39But that blackout risk disappears,
-
21:39 - 21:41and all of the other risks are best managed,
-
21:41 - 21:43with distributed renewables
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21:43 - 21:47organized into local micro-grids that normally interconnect,
-
21:47 - 21:49but can stand alone at need.
-
21:49 - 21:51That is, they can disconnect fractally
-
21:51 - 21:54and then reconnect seamlessly.
-
21:54 - 21:57That approach is exactly what the Pentagon is adopting
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21:57 - 21:58for its own power supply.
-
21:58 - 22:02They think they need that; how about the rest of us that they're defending?
-
22:02 - 22:03We want our stuff to work too.
-
22:03 - 22:07At about the same cost as business as usual,
-
22:07 - 22:09this would maximize national security,
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22:09 - 22:13customer choice, entrepreneurial opportunity
-
22:13 - 22:15and innovation.
-
22:15 - 22:20Together, efficient use and diverse dispersed renewable supply
-
22:20 - 22:23are starting to transform the whole electricity sector.
-
22:23 - 22:25Traditionally utilities build
-
22:25 - 22:27a lot of giant coal and nuclear plants
-
22:27 - 22:29and a bunch of big gas plants
-
22:29 - 22:30and maybe a little bit of efficiency renewables.
-
22:30 - 22:32And those utilities were rewarded,
-
22:32 - 22:35as they still are in 34 states,
-
22:35 - 22:38for selling you more electricity.
-
22:38 - 22:41However, especially where regulators
-
22:41 - 22:45are now instead rewarding cutting your bills,
-
22:45 - 22:49the investments are shifting radically
-
22:49 - 22:51toward efficiency, demand response, cogeneration,
-
22:51 - 22:54renewables and ways to knit them all together reliably
-
22:54 - 22:56with less transmission
-
22:56 - 22:59and little or no bulk electricity storage.
-
22:59 - 23:02So our energy future is not fate, but choice,
-
23:02 - 23:04and that choice is very flexible.
-
23:04 - 23:06In 1976, for example,
-
23:06 - 23:08government and industry insisted
-
23:08 - 23:10that the amount of energy needed to make a dollar of GDP
-
23:10 - 23:12could never go down.
-
23:12 - 23:16And I heretically suggested it could go down several-fold.
-
23:16 - 23:18Well that's what's actually happened so far.
-
23:18 - 23:19It's fallen by half.
-
23:19 - 23:22But with today's much better technologies,
-
23:22 - 23:25more mature delivery channels and integrative design,
-
23:25 - 23:29we can do far more and even cheaper.
-
23:29 - 23:31So to solve the energy problem,
-
23:31 - 23:33we just needed to enlarge it.
-
23:33 - 23:36And the results may at first seem incredible,
-
23:36 - 23:38but as Marshall McLuhan said,
-
23:38 - 23:41"Only puny secrets need protection.
-
23:41 - 23:47Big discoveries are protected by public incredulity."
-
23:47 - 23:50Now combine the electricity and oil revolutions,
-
23:50 - 23:52both driven by modern efficiency,
-
23:52 - 23:56and you get the really big story: reinventing fire,
-
23:56 - 24:01where business enabled and sped by smart policies in mindful markets
-
24:01 - 24:05can lead the United States completely off oil and coal by 2050,
-
24:05 - 24:08saving 5 trillion dollars,
-
24:08 - 24:10growing the economy 2.6-fold,
-
24:10 - 24:12strengthening out national security,
-
24:12 - 24:15oh, and by the way, by getting rid of the oil and coal,
-
24:15 - 24:19reducing the fossil carbon emissions by 82 to 86 percent.
-
24:19 - 24:23Now if you like any of those outcomes,
-
24:23 - 24:25you can support reinventing fire
-
24:25 - 24:27without needing to like all of them
-
24:27 - 24:30and without needing to agree about which of them is most important.
-
24:30 - 24:33So focusing on outcomes, not motives,
-
24:33 - 24:36can turn gridlock and conflict
-
24:36 - 24:40into a unifying solution to America's energy challenge.
-
24:40 - 24:43This also turns out to be the best way
-
24:43 - 24:46to cope with global challenges --
-
24:46 - 24:48climate change, nuclear proliferation,
-
24:48 - 24:51energy insecurity, energy poverty --
-
24:51 - 24:54all of which make us less safe.
-
24:54 - 24:58Now our team at RMI helps smart companies
-
24:58 - 25:01to get unstuck and speed this journey
-
25:01 - 25:04via six sectoral initiatives, with some more hatching.
-
25:04 - 25:07Of course there's still a lot of old thinking out there too.
-
25:07 - 25:10Former oil man Maurice Strong said,
-
25:10 - 25:12"Not all the fossils are in the fuel."
-
25:12 - 25:16But as Edgar Woolard, who used to chair Dupont, reminds us,
-
25:16 - 25:21"Companies hampered by old thinking won't be a problem
-
25:21 - 25:26because," he said," they simply won't be around long-term."
-
25:26 - 25:29I've described not just a once-in-a-civilization
-
25:29 - 25:31business opportunity,
-
25:31 - 25:33but one of the most profound transitions
-
25:33 - 25:36in the history of our species.
-
25:36 - 25:39We humans are inventing a new fire,
-
25:39 - 25:41not dug from below,
-
25:41 - 25:44but flowing from above;
-
25:44 - 25:47not scarce, but bountiful;
-
25:47 - 25:48not local, but everywhere;
-
25:48 - 25:51not transient, but permanent;
-
25:51 - 25:54not costly, but free.
-
25:54 - 25:57And but for a little transitional tail of natural gas
-
25:57 - 26:01and a bit of biofuel grown in ways that sustain and endure,
-
26:01 - 26:04this new fire is flameless.
-
26:04 - 26:09Efficiently used, it really can do our work
-
26:09 - 26:11without working our undoing.
-
26:11 - 26:16Each of you owns a piece of that $5 trillion prize.
-
26:16 - 26:18And our new book "Reinventing Fire"
-
26:18 - 26:21describes how you can capture it.
-
26:21 - 26:23So with the conversation just begun
-
26:23 - 26:25at ReinventingFire.com,
-
26:25 - 26:27let me invite you each
-
26:27 - 26:31to engage with us and with each other, with everyone around you,
-
26:31 - 26:34to help make the world richer, fairer,
-
26:34 - 26:36cooler and safer
-
26:36 - 26:39by together reinventing fire.
-
26:39 - 26:41Thank you.
-
26:41 - 26:42(Applause)
- Title:
- A 40-year plan for energy
- Speaker:
- Amory Lovins
- Description:
-
In this intimate talk filmed at TED's offices, energy theorist Amory Lovins lays out the steps we must take to end the world's dependence on oil (before we run out). Some changes are already happening -- like lighter-weight cars and smarter trucks -- but some require a bigger vision.
- Video Language:
- English
- Team:
- closed TED
- Project:
- TEDTalks
- Duration:
- 27:10
Jenny Zurawell edited English subtitles for A 40-year plan for energy | ||
Jenny Zurawell edited English subtitles for A 40-year plan for energy | ||
Zehra Ezgi HOŞSÖZ accepted English subtitles for A 40-year plan for energy | ||
Ng Nicole edited English subtitles for A 40-year plan for energy | ||
Jenny Zurawell edited English subtitles for A 40-year plan for energy | ||
Jenny Zurawell approved English subtitles for A 40-year plan for energy | ||
Jenny Zurawell edited English subtitles for A 40-year plan for energy | ||
Morton Bast accepted English subtitles for A 40-year plan for energy |