A 40-year plan for energy
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Not SyncedAmerica's public energy conversation
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Not Syncedboils down to this question:
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Not SyncedWould you rather die of A.) oil wars,
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Not Syncedor B.) climate change,
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Not Syncedor C.) nuclear holocaust,
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Not Syncedor D.) all of the above?
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Not SyncedOh, I missed one: or E.) none of the above?
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Not SyncedThat's the one we're not normally offered.
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Not SyncedWhat if we could make energy do our work
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Not Syncedwithout working out undoing?
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Not SyncedCould we have fuel without fear?
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Not SyncedCould we reinvent fire?
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Not SyncedYou see, fire made us human;
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Not Syncedfossil fuels made us modern.
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Not SyncedBut now we need a new fire
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Not Syncedthat makes us safe, secure, healthy and durable.
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Not SyncedLet's see how.
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Not SyncedFour-fifths of the world's energy
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Not Syncedstill comes from burning each year
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Not Syncedfour cubic miles of the rotten remains
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Not Syncedof primeval swamp goo.
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Not SyncedThose fossil fuels
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Not Syncedhave built our civilization.
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Not SyncedThey've created our wealth.
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Not SyncedThey've enriched the lives of billions.
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Not SyncedBut they also have rising costs
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Not Syncedto our security, economy, health and environment
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Not Syncedthat are starting to erode, if not outweigh their benefits.
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Not SyncedSo we need a new fire.
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Not SyncedAnd switching from the old fire to the new fire
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Not Syncedmeans changing two big stories about oil and electricity,
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Not Syncedeach of which puts two-fifths of the fossil carbon in the air.
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Not SyncedBut they're really quite distinct.
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Not SyncedLess than one percent of our electricity is made from oil --
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Not Syncedalthough almost half is made from coal.
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Not SyncedTheir uses are quite concentrated.
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Not SyncedThree-fourths of our oil fuel is transportation.
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Not SyncedThree-fourths of our electricity powers buildings.
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Not SyncedAnd the rest of both runs factories.
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Not SyncedSo very efficient vehicles, buildings and factories
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Not Syncedsave oil and coal,
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Not Syncedand also natural gas that can displace both of them.
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Not SyncedBut today's energy system is not just inefficient,
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Not Syncedit is also disconnected,
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Not Syncedaging, dirty and insecure.
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Not SyncedSo it needs refurbishment.
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Not SyncedBy 2050 though, it could become efficient,
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Not Syncedconnected and distributed
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Not Syncedwith elegantly frugal
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Not Syncedautos, factories and buildings
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Not Syncedall relying on a modern, secure
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Not Syncedand resilient electricity system.
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Not SyncedWe can eliminate our addiction to oil and coal by 2050
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Not Syncedand use one-third less natural gas
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Not Syncedwhile switching to efficient use
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Not Syncedand renewable supply.
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Not SyncedThis could cost, by 2050,
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Not Syncedfive trillion dollars less in net present value,
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Not Syncedthat is expressed as a lump sum today,
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Not Syncedthan business as usual --
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Not Syncedassuming that carbon emissions
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Not Syncedand all other hidden or external costs are worth zero --
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Not Synceda conservatively low estimate.
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Not SyncedYet this cheaper energy system
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Not Syncedcould support 158 percent bigger U.S. economy
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Not Syncedall without needing oil or coal,
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Not Syncedor for that matter nuclear energy.
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Not SyncedMoreover, this transition needs no new inventions
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Not Syncedand no acts of Congress
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Not Syncedand no new federal taxes, mandated subsidies or laws
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Not Syncedand running Washington gridlock.
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Not SyncedLet me say that again.
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Not SyncedI'm going to tell you how to get the United States
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Not Syncedcompletely off oil and coal, five trillion dollars cheaper
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Not Syncedwith no act of Congress
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Not Syncedled by business for profit.
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Not SyncedIn other words, we're going to use our most effective institutions --
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Not Syncedprivate enterprise co-evolving with civil society
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Not Syncedand sped by military innovation
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Not Syncedto go around our least effective institutions.
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Not SyncedAnd whether you care most
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Not Syncedabout profits and jobs and competitive advantage
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Not Syncedor national security, or environmental stewardship
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Not Syncedand climate protection and public health,
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Not Syncedreinventing fire makes sense and makes money.
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Not SyncedGeneral Eisenhower reputedly said
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Not Syncedthat enlarging the boundaries of a tough problem
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Not Syncedmakes it soluble by encompassing more options and more synergies.
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Not SyncedSo in reinventing fire,
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Not Syncedwe integrated all four sectors that use energy --
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Not Syncedtransportation, buildings, industry and electricity --
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Not Syncedand we integrated four kinds of innovation,
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Not Syncednot just technology and policy,
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Not Syncedbut also design and business strategy.
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Not SyncedThose combination yield
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Not Syncedvery much more than the sum of the parts,
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Not Syncedespecially in creating deeply disruptive business opportunities.
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Not SyncedOil costs our economy two billion dollars a day,
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Not Syncedplus another four billion dollars a day
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Not Syncedin hidden economic and military costs,
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Not Syncedraising its total cost to over a sixth of GDP.
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Not SyncedOur mobility fuel goes three-fifths to automobiles.
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Not SyncedSo let's start by making autos oil free.
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Not SyncedTwo-thirds of the energy it takes to move a typical car
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Not Syncedis caused by its weight.
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Not SyncedAnd every unit of energy you save at the wheels,
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Not Syncedby taking out weight or drag,
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Not Syncedsaves seven units in the tank,
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Not Syncedbecause you don't have to waste six units
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Not Syncedgetting the energy to the wheels.
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Not SyncedUnfortunately, of the past quarter century,
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Not Syncedepidemic obesity has made our two-ton steel cars
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Not Syncedgain weight twice as fast as we have.
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Not SyncedBut today, ultralight, ultrastrong materials,
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Not Syncedlike carbon fiber composites,
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Not Syncedcan make dramatic weight-saving snowball
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Not Syncedand can make cars simpler and cheaper to build.
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Not SyncedLighter and more slippery autos
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Not Syncedneed less force to move them,
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Not Syncedso their engines get smaller.
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Not SyncedIndeed, that sort of vehicle fitness
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Not Syncedthen makes electric propulsion affordable
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Not Syncedbecause the batteries fuel cells
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Not Syncedalso get smaller and lighter and cheaper.
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Not SyncedSo sticker prices will ultimately fall to about the same as today,
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Not Syncedwhile the driving cost, even from the start,
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Not Syncedis very much lower.
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Not SyncedSo these innovations together can transform automakers
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Not Syncedfrom wringing tiny savings
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Not Syncedout of Victorian engine and seal-stamping technologies
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Not Syncedto the steeply falling costs
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Not Syncedof three linked innovations that strongly reenforce each other --
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Not Syncednamely ultralight materials, making them into structures
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Not Syncedand electric propulsion.
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Not SyncedThe sales can grow and the prices fall even faster
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Not Syncedwith temporary feebates,
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Not Syncedthat is rebates for efficient new autos
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Not Syncedpaid for by fees on inefficient ones.
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Not SyncedAnd just in the first two years
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Not Syncedthe biggest of Europe's five feebate programs
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Not Syncedhas tripled the speed of improving automotive efficiency.
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Not SyncedThe resulting shift to electric autos
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Not Syncedis going to be as game-changing
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Not Syncedas shifting from typewriters to the gains in computers.
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Not SyncedOf course, computers and electronics
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Not Syncedare now America's biggest industry,
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Not Syncedwhile typewriter makers have vanished.
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Not SyncedSo vehicle fitness
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Not Syncedopens a new automotive competitive strategy
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Not Syncedthat can double the oil savings over the next 40 years,
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Not Syncedbut then also make electrication,
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Not Syncedand that displaces the rest of the oil.
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Not SyncedAmerica could lead this next automotive revolution.
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Not SyncedCurrently the leader is Germany.
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Not SyncedLast year, Volkswagen announced
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Not Syncedthat by next year they'll be producing
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Not Syncedthis carbon fiber plugin hybrid
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Not Syncedgetting 230 miles a gallon.
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Not SyncedAlso last year, BMW announced
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Not Syncedthis carbon fiber electric car,
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Not Syncedthey said that its carbon fiber is paid for
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Not Syncedby needing fewer batteries.
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Not SyncedAnd they said, "We do not intend to be a typewriter maker."
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Not SyncedAudi claimed it's going to beat them both by a year.
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Not SyncedSeven years ago, an even faster and cheaper
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Not SyncedAmerican manufacturing technology
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Not Syncedwas used to make this little carbon fiber test part,
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Not Syncedwhich doubles as a carbon cap.
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Not Synced(Laughter)
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Not SyncedIn one minute -- and you can tell from the sound
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Not Syncedhow immensely still and strong it is.
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Not SyncedDon't worry about dropping it, it's tougher than titanium.
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Not SyncedTom Friedman actually whacked it as hard as he could with a sledgehammer
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Not Syncedwithout even scuffing it.
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Not SyncedBut such manufacturing techniques
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Not Syncedcan scale to automotive speed and cost
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Not Syncedwith aerospace performance.
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Not SyncedThey can save four-fifths of the capital needed to make autos.
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Not SyncedThey can save lives
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Not Syncedbecause this stuff can absorb
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Not Syncedup to 12 times as much crash energy per pound as steel.
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Not SyncedIf we made all of our autos this way,
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Not Syncedit would save oil equivalent to finding
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Not Syncedone and a half Saudi Arabias, or half an OPEC,
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Not Syncedby drilling in the Detroit formation a very prospective play.
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Not SyncedAnd all those mega-barrels under Detroit
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Not Syncedcost an average of 18 bucks a barrel.
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Not SyncedThey are all-American, carbon-free
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Not Syncedand inexhaustible.
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Not SyncedThe same physics and the same business logic
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Not Syncedalso apply to big vehicles.
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Not SyncedIn the five years ending with 2010,
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Not SyncedWalmart saved 60 percent of the fuel-per-ton-mile
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Not Syncedin its giant fleet of heavy trucks
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Not Syncedthrough better logistics and design.
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Not SyncedBut just the technological savings in heavy trucks
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Not Syncedcan get two-thirds.
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Not SyncedAnd combined with triple to quintuple efficiency airplanes,
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Not Syncednow on the drawing board,
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Not Syncedcan save close to a trillion dollars.
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Not SyncedAlso today's military revolution in energy efficiency
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Not Syncedis going to speed up all of these civilian advances
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Not Syncedin much the same way that military R&D
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Not Syncedhas given us the internet, the Global Positioning System
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Not Syncedand the jet engine and microchip industries.
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Not SyncedAs we design and build vehicles better,
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Not Syncedwe can also use them smarter
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Not Syncedby harnessing four powerful techniques
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Not Syncedfor eliminating needless driving.
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Not SyncedInstead of just seeing the travel grow,
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Not Syncedwe can use innovative pricing,
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Not Syncedcharging for road infrastructure by the mile, not by the gallon.
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Not SyncedWe can use some smart I.T. to enhance transit
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Not Syncedand enable car sharing and ride sharing.
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Not SyncedWe can allow smart and lucrative growth models
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Not Syncedthat help people already be near where they want to be,
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Not Syncedso they don't need to go somewhere else.
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Not SyncedAnd we can use smart I.T.
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Not Syncedto make traffic free-flowing.
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Not SyncedTogether, those things can give us the same or better access
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Not Syncedwith 46 to 84 percent less driving,
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Not Syncedsaving another 0.4 trillion dollars,
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Not Syncedplus 0.3 trillion dollars from using trucks more productively.
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Not SyncedSo 40 years hence, when you add it all up,
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Not Synceda far more mobile U.S. economy
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Not Syncedcan use no oil.
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Not SyncedSaving or displacing barrels for 25 bucks
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Not Syncedrather than buying them for over a hundred,
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Not Syncedadds up to over a trillion-dollar net saving
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Not Syncedcounting all the hidden costs at zero.
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Not SyncedSo to get mobility without oil,
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Not Syncedto phase out the oil,
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Not Syncedwe can get it efficient and then switch fuels.
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Not SyncedThose 125 to 240 mile per gallon equivalent autos
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Not Syncedcan use any mixture of hydrogen fuel cells,
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Not Syncedelectricity and advanced biofuels.
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Not SyncedThe trucks and planes can realistically use
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Not Syncedhydrogen or advanced biofuels.
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Not SyncedThe trucks could even use natural gas.
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Not SyncedBut no vehicles will need oil.
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Not SyncedAnd the most biofuel we might need,
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Not Syncedjust three million barrels a day,
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Not Syncedcan be made two-thirds from waste
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Not Syncedwithout displacing any cropland
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Not Syncedand without harming soil or climate.
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Not SyncedOur team speeds up these kinds of oil savings
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Not Syncedby what we call "institutional acupuncture."
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Not SyncedWe figure out where the business logic
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Not Syncedis congested and not flowing properly,
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Not Syncedwe stick little needles in it to get it flowing,
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Not Syncedworking with partners like Ford and Walmart and the Pentagon.
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Not SyncedAnd the long transition is already well under way.
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Not SyncedIn fact, three years ago mainstream analysts were starting to see peak oil,
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Not Syncednot in supply, but in demand.
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Not SyncedAnd Deutsche Bank even world oil use could peak around 2016.
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Not SyncedIn other words, oil is getting uncompetitive even at low prices
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Not Syncedbefore it becomes unavailable even at high prices.
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Not SyncedBut the electrified vehicles
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Not Synceddon't need to burden the electricity grid.
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Not SyncedRather, when smart autos exchange electricity and information
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Not Syncedthrough smart buildings with smart grids,
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Not Syncedthey're adding to the grid valuable flexibility and storage
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Not Syncedthat help the grid integrate
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Not Syncedvarying solar and wind power.
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Not SyncedSo the electrified autos
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Not Syncedmake the auto and electricity problems
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Not Syncedeasier to solve together than separately.
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Not SyncedAnd they also converge the oil story
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Not Syncedwith our second big story,
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Not Syncedsaving electricity and then making it differently.
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Not SyncedAnd those twin revolutions in electricity
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Not Syncedwill bring to that sector
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Not Syncedmore numerous and profound and diverse disruptions
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Not Syncedthan any other sector,
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Not Syncedbecause we've got 21st century technology and speed colliding head-on
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Not Syncedwith 20th and 19th century institutions, rules and cultures.
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Not SyncedChanging how we make electricity gets easier
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Not Syncedif we need less of it.
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Not SyncedMost of it now is wasted
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Not Syncedand the technologies for saving it
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Not Syncedkeep improving faster than we're installing them.
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Not SyncedSo the unbought efficiency resource
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Not Syncedkeeps getting ever bigger and cheaper.
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Not SyncedBut as efficiency in buildings and industry
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Not Syncedstarts to grow faster than the economy,
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Not SyncedAmericans' electricity use could actually shrink,
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Not Syncedeven with the little extra use required
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Not Syncedfor the efficient electrified autos.
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Not SyncedAnd we can do this just by reasonably accelerating existing trends.
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Not SyncedOver the next 40 years, buildings,
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Not Syncedwhich use three-quarters of the electricity,
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Not Syncedcan triple or quadruple their energy productivity,
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Not Syncedsaving 1.4 trillion dollars, net present value,
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Not Syncedwith a 33 percent internal rate return
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Not Syncedor in English,
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Not Syncedthe savings are worth four times of what they cost.
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Not SyncedAnd industry can accelerate too,
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Not Synceddoubling its energy productivity
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Not Syncedwith a 21 percent internal rate of return.
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Not SyncedThe key is a disruptive innovation
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Not Syncedthat we call integrative design
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Not Syncedthat often makes very big energy savings
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Not Syncedcost less than small or no savings.
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Not SyncedThat is, it can give you expanding returns,
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Not Syncednot diminishing returns.
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Not SyncedThat is how our 2010 retrofit
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Not Syncedis saving over two-fifths of the energy in the Empire State Building --
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Not Syncedremanufacturing those six and a half thousand windows on site
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Not Syncedinto super windows that pass light, but reflect heat.
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Not Syncedplus better lights and office equipment and such
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Not Syncedcut the maximum cooling load by a third.
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Not SyncedAnd then renovating smaller chillers instead of adding bigger ones
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Not Syncedsaved 17 million dollars --
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Not Synceda capital cost which helped pay for the other improvements
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Not Syncedand reduce the payback to just three years.
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Not SyncedIntegrative design can also increase
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Not Syncedenergy savings in industry.
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Not SyncedDow's billion-dollar efficiency investment
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Not Syncedhas already returned nine billion dollars.
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Not SyncedBut industry as a whole has another half-trillion dollars
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Not Syncedof energy still to save.
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Not SyncedFor example, three-fifths of the world's electricity runs motors.
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Not SyncedHalf of that runs pumps and fans.
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Not SyncedAnd those can all be made more efficient,
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Not Syncedand the motors that turn them
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Not Syncedcan have their system efficiency roughly doubled
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Not Syncedby integrating 35 improvements, paying back in about a year.
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Not SyncedBut first we ought to be capturing bigger, cheaper savings
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Not Syncedthat are normally ignored and that are not in the textbooks.
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Not SyncedFor example, pumps, the biggest use of motors,
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Not Syncedmove liquid through pipes.
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Not SyncedBut a standard industrial pumping loop
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Not Syncedwas redesigned to use at least 86 percent less energy,
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Not Syncednot by getting better pumps,
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Not Syncedbut just by replacing long, thin, crooked pipes
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Not Syncedwith fat, short, straight pipes.
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Not SyncedThis is not about new technology,
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Not Syncedit's just rearranging our metal furniture.
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Not SyncedOf course, it also shrinks the pumping equipment
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Not Syncedand its capital costs.
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Not SyncedSo what do such savings mean
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Not Syncedfor the electricity that is three-fifths used in motors?
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Not SyncedWell, from the coal burned at the power plant
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Not Syncedthrough all these compounding losses,
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Not Syncedonly a tenth of the fuel energy
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Not Syncedactually ends up coming out the pipe as flow.
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Not SyncedBut now let's turn those compounding losses around backwards,
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Not Syncedand every unit of flow or friction that we save in the pipe
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Not Syncedsaves 10 units of fuel cost, pollution
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Not Syncedand what Hunter Lovins calls "global weirding"
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Not Syncedback at the power plant.
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Not SyncedAnd of course, as you go back upstream,
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Not Syncedthe components get smaller and therefore cheaper.
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Not SyncedOur team has lately found such snowballing energy savings
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Not Syncedin more than 30 billion dollars-worth of industrial redisigns --
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Not Syncedeverything from data centers and chip fabs
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Not Syncedto mines and refineries.
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Not SyncedTypically are retrofit designs
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Not Syncedsave about 30 to 60 percent of the energy
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Not Syncedand pay back in a few years,
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Not Syncedwhile the new facility designs save 40 to 95-odd percent
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Not Syncedwith generally lower capital cost.
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Not SyncedNow needing less electricity
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Not Syncedwould ease and speed
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Not Syncedthe shift to new sources of electricity, chiefly renewables.
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Not SyncedChina leads their explosive growth and their plummeting cost.
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Not SyncedIn fact, these solar powered module costs
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Not Syncedhave just fallen off the bottom of the chart.
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Not SyncedAnd Germany now has more solar workers
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Not Syncedthan America has steel workers.
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Not SyncedAlready in about 20 states
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Not Syncedprivate installers will come
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Not Syncedput those cheap solar cells on your roof with no money down
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Not Syncedand beat your utility bill.
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Not SyncedSuch unregulated products
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Not Syncedcould ultimately add up to a virtual utility
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Not Syncedthat bypasses your electric company
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Not Syncedjust as your cellphone bypassed your wireline phone company.
- Title:
- A 40-year plan for energy
- Speaker:
- Amory Lovins
- Description:
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In this intimate talk filmed at TED's offices, energy theorist Amory Lovins lays out the steps we must take to end the world's dependence on oil (before we run out). Some changes are already happening -- like lighter-weight cars and smarter trucks -- but some require a bigger vision.
- Video Language:
- English
- Team:
- closed TED
- Project:
- TEDTalks
- Duration:
- 27:10
Jenny Zurawell edited English subtitles for A 40-year plan for energy | ||
Jenny Zurawell edited English subtitles for A 40-year plan for energy | ||
Zehra Ezgi HOŞSÖZ accepted English subtitles for A 40-year plan for energy | ||
Ng Nicole edited English subtitles for A 40-year plan for energy | ||
Jenny Zurawell edited English subtitles for A 40-year plan for energy | ||
Jenny Zurawell approved English subtitles for A 40-year plan for energy | ||
Jenny Zurawell edited English subtitles for A 40-year plan for energy | ||
Morton Bast accepted English subtitles for A 40-year plan for energy |