[Script Info]
Title: 
[Events]
Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text
Dialogue: 0,0:00:00.22,0:00:02.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,America's public energy conversation
Dialogue: 0,0:00:02.49,0:00:04.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,boils down to this question:
Dialogue: 0,0:00:04.71,0:00:08.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Would you rather die of A) oil wars,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:08.09,0:00:10.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or B) climate change,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:10.70,0:00:12.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or C) nuclear holocaust,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:12.10,0:00:15.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or D) all of the above?
Dialogue: 0,0:00:15.40,0:00:18.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Oh, I missed one: or E) none of the above?
Dialogue: 0,0:00:18.20,0:00:20.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's the one we're not normally offered.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:20.32,0:00:22.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What if we could make energy do our work
Dialogue: 0,0:00:22.45,0:00:24.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,without working our undoing?
Dialogue: 0,0:00:24.90,0:00:27.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Could we have fuel without fear?
Dialogue: 0,0:00:27.00,0:00:29.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Could we reinvent fire?
Dialogue: 0,0:00:29.41,0:00:31.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You see, fire made us human;
Dialogue: 0,0:00:31.04,0:00:33.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,fossil fuels made us modern.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:33.09,0:00:34.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But now we need a new fire
Dialogue: 0,0:00:34.39,0:00:37.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that makes us safe, secure, healthy and durable.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:37.92,0:00:40.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Let's see how.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:40.17,0:00:43.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Four-fifths of the world's energy
Dialogue: 0,0:00:43.06,0:00:44.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,still comes from burning each year
Dialogue: 0,0:00:44.83,0:00:48.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,four cubic miles of the rotted remains
Dialogue: 0,0:00:48.33,0:00:50.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of primeval swamp goo.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:50.93,0:00:53.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Those fossil fuels
Dialogue: 0,0:00:53.07,0:00:56.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,have built our civilization.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:56.14,0:00:58.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They've created our wealth.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:58.23,0:00:59.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They've enriched the lives of billions.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:59.80,0:01:02.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But they also have rising costs
Dialogue: 0,0:01:02.44,0:01:06.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to our security, economy, health and environment
Dialogue: 0,0:01:06.83,0:01:10.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that are starting to erode, if not outweigh their benefits.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:10.09,0:01:12.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So we need a new fire.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:12.33,0:01:15.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And switching from the old fire to the new fire
Dialogue: 0,0:01:15.23,0:01:19.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,means changing two big stories about oil and electricity,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:19.27,0:01:23.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,each of which puts two-fifths of the fossil carbon in the air.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:23.94,0:01:25.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But they're really quite distinct.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:25.91,0:01:29.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Less than one percent of our electricity is made from oil --
Dialogue: 0,0:01:29.32,0:01:33.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,although almost half is made from coal.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:33.03,0:01:35.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Their uses are quite concentrated.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:35.31,0:01:38.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Three-fourths of our oil fuel is transportation.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:38.05,0:01:40.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Three-fourths of our electricity powers buildings.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:40.82,0:01:42.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the rest of both runs factories.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:42.86,0:01:46.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So very efficient vehicles, buildings and factories
Dialogue: 0,0:01:46.70,0:01:48.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,save oil and coal,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:48.47,0:01:51.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and also natural gas that can displace both of them.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:51.90,0:01:55.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But today's energy system is not just inefficient,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:55.58,0:01:57.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it is also disconnected,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:57.59,0:02:00.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,aging, dirty and insecure.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:00.30,0:02:02.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So it needs refurbishment.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:02.78,0:02:06.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,By 2050 though, it could become efficient,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:06.20,0:02:09.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,connected and distributed
Dialogue: 0,0:02:09.47,0:02:10.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with elegantly frugal
Dialogue: 0,0:02:10.87,0:02:13.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,autos, factories and buildings
Dialogue: 0,0:02:13.60,0:02:15.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,all relying on a modern, secure
Dialogue: 0,0:02:15.97,0:02:18.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and resilient electricity system.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:18.63,0:02:24.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We can eliminate our addiction to oil and coal by 2050
Dialogue: 0,0:02:24.07,0:02:27.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and use one-third less natural gas
Dialogue: 0,0:02:27.24,0:02:30.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,while switching to efficient use
Dialogue: 0,0:02:30.12,0:02:32.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and renewable supply.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:32.70,0:02:36.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This could cost, by 2050,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:36.24,0:02:39.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,five trillion dollars less in net present value,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:39.49,0:02:42.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that is expressed as a lump sum today,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:42.13,0:02:43.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,than business as usual --
Dialogue: 0,0:02:43.68,0:02:45.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,assuming that carbon emissions
Dialogue: 0,0:02:45.13,0:02:48.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and all other hidden or external costs are worth zero --
Dialogue: 0,0:02:48.20,0:02:52.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a conservatively low estimate.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:52.08,0:02:54.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Yet this cheaper energy system
Dialogue: 0,0:02:54.03,0:02:57.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,could support 158 percent bigger U.S. economy
Dialogue: 0,0:02:57.87,0:03:00.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,all without needing oil or coal,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:00.24,0:03:02.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or for that matter nuclear energy.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:02.70,0:03:05.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Moreover, this transition needs no new inventions
Dialogue: 0,0:03:05.72,0:03:08.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and no acts of Congress
Dialogue: 0,0:03:08.98,0:03:13.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and no new federal taxes, mandate subsidies or laws
Dialogue: 0,0:03:13.47,0:03:16.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and running Washington gridlock.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:16.42,0:03:17.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Let me say that again.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:17.33,0:03:20.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'm going to tell you how to get the United States
Dialogue: 0,0:03:20.10,0:03:23.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,completely off oil and coal, five trillion dollars cheaper
Dialogue: 0,0:03:23.41,0:03:24.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with no act of Congress
Dialogue: 0,0:03:24.76,0:03:27.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,led by business for profit.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:27.27,0:03:30.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In other words, we're going to use our most effective institutions --
Dialogue: 0,0:03:30.91,0:03:34.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,private enterprise co-evolving with civil society
Dialogue: 0,0:03:34.72,0:03:37.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and sped by military innovation
Dialogue: 0,0:03:37.23,0:03:40.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to go around our least effective institutions.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:40.03,0:03:42.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And whether you care most
Dialogue: 0,0:03:42.37,0:03:45.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about profits and jobs and competitive advantage
Dialogue: 0,0:03:45.80,0:03:48.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or national security, or environmental stewardship
Dialogue: 0,0:03:48.21,0:03:50.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and climate protection and public health,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:50.37,0:03:54.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,reinventing fire makes sense and makes money.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:54.65,0:03:58.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,General Eisenhower reputedly said
Dialogue: 0,0:03:58.10,0:04:00.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that enlarging the boundaries of a tough problem
Dialogue: 0,0:04:00.72,0:04:05.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,makes it soluble by encompassing more options and more synergies.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:05.29,0:04:06.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So in reinventing fire,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:06.96,0:04:10.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we integrated all four sectors that use energy --
Dialogue: 0,0:04:10.12,0:04:13.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,transportation, buildings, industry and electricity --
Dialogue: 0,0:04:13.76,0:04:16.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we integrated four kinds of innovation,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:16.38,0:04:18.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not just technology and policy,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:18.93,0:04:22.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but also design and business strategy.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:22.03,0:04:24.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Those combinations yield
Dialogue: 0,0:04:24.05,0:04:26.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,very much more than the sum of the parts,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:26.15,0:04:31.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,especially in creating deeply disruptive business opportunities.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:31.50,0:04:35.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Oil costs our economy two billion dollars a day,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:35.55,0:04:37.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,plus another four billion dollars a day
Dialogue: 0,0:04:37.92,0:04:40.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in hidden economic and military costs,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:40.56,0:04:44.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,raising its total cost to over a sixth of GDP.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:44.49,0:04:47.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Our mobility fuel goes three-fifths to automobiles.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:47.04,0:04:49.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So let's start by making autos oil free.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:49.68,0:04:52.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Two-thirds of the energy it takes to move a typical car
Dialogue: 0,0:04:52.86,0:04:55.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is caused by its weight.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:55.06,0:04:58.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And every unit of energy you save at the wheels,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:58.57,0:04:59.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by taking out weight or drag,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:59.82,0:05:01.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,saves seven units in the tank,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:01.85,0:05:03.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because you don't have to waste six units
Dialogue: 0,0:05:03.53,0:05:05.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,getting the energy to the wheels.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:05.63,0:05:09.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Unfortunately, over the past quarter century,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:09.22,0:05:11.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,epidemic obesity has made our two-ton steel cars
Dialogue: 0,0:05:11.93,0:05:15.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,gain weight twice as fast as we have.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:15.76,0:05:19.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But today, ultralight, ultrastrong materials,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:19.41,0:05:21.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,like carbon fiber composites,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:21.100,0:05:24.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,can make dramatic weight savings snowball
Dialogue: 0,0:05:24.37,0:05:28.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and can make cars simpler and cheaper to build.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:28.28,0:05:30.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Lighter and more slippery autos
Dialogue: 0,0:05:30.65,0:05:32.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,need less force to move them,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:32.90,0:05:35.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so their engines get smaller.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:35.17,0:05:38.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Indeed, that sort of vehicle fitness
Dialogue: 0,0:05:38.00,0:05:41.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,then makes electric propulsion affordable
Dialogue: 0,0:05:41.17,0:05:44.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because the batteries or fuel cells
Dialogue: 0,0:05:44.30,0:05:47.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,also get smaller and lighter and cheaper.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:47.90,0:05:51.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So sticker prices will ultimately fall to about the same as today,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:51.80,0:05:55.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,while the driving cost, even from the start,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:55.32,0:05:57.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is very much lower.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:57.07,0:06:01.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So these innovations together can transform automakers
Dialogue: 0,0:06:01.22,0:06:03.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from wringing tiny savings
Dialogue: 0,0:06:03.58,0:06:06.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,out of Victorian engine and seal-stamping technologies
Dialogue: 0,0:06:06.91,0:06:09.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to the steeply falling costs
Dialogue: 0,0:06:09.65,0:06:14.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of three linked innovations that strongly reenforce each other --
Dialogue: 0,0:06:14.75,0:06:18.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,namely ultralight materials, making them into structures
Dialogue: 0,0:06:18.67,0:06:21.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and electric propulsion.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:21.00,0:06:25.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The sales can grow and the prices fall even faster
Dialogue: 0,0:06:25.70,0:06:27.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with temporary feebates,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:27.41,0:06:29.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that is rebates for efficient new autos
Dialogue: 0,0:06:29.66,0:06:32.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,paid for by fees on inefficient ones.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:32.76,0:06:35.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And just in the first two years
Dialogue: 0,0:06:35.61,0:06:39.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the biggest of Europe's five feebate programs
Dialogue: 0,0:06:39.06,0:06:43.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,has tripled the speed of improving automotive efficiency.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:43.10,0:06:46.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The resulting shift to electric autos
Dialogue: 0,0:06:46.53,0:06:48.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is going to be as game-changing
Dialogue: 0,0:06:48.00,0:06:52.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as shifting from typewriters to the gains in computers.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:52.20,0:06:54.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Of course, computers and electronics
Dialogue: 0,0:06:54.30,0:06:56.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are now America's biggest industry,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:56.60,0:06:58.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,while typewriter makers have vanished.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:58.75,0:07:00.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So vehicle fitness
Dialogue: 0,0:07:00.68,0:07:04.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,opens a new automotive competitive strategy
Dialogue: 0,0:07:04.24,0:07:07.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that can double the oil savings over the next 40 years,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:07.50,0:07:10.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but then also make electrification affordable,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:10.38,0:07:14.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that displaces the rest of the oil.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:14.36,0:07:17.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,America could lead this next automotive revolution.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:17.92,0:07:20.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Currently the leader is Germany.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:20.40,0:07:22.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Last year, Volkswagen announced
Dialogue: 0,0:07:22.91,0:07:25.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that by next year they'll be producing
Dialogue: 0,0:07:25.13,0:07:28.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this carbon fiber plugin hybrid
Dialogue: 0,0:07:28.00,0:07:30.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,getting 230 miles a gallon.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:30.41,0:07:32.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Also last year, BMW announced
Dialogue: 0,0:07:32.92,0:07:35.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this carbon fiber electric car,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:35.19,0:07:37.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they said that its carbon fiber is paid for
Dialogue: 0,0:07:37.17,0:07:39.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by needing fewer batteries.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:39.22,0:07:41.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And they said, "We do not intend to be a typewriter maker."
Dialogue: 0,0:07:41.77,0:07:45.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Audi claimed it's going to beat them both by a year.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:45.28,0:07:48.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Seven years ago, an even faster and cheaper
Dialogue: 0,0:07:48.50,0:07:51.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,American manufacturing technology
Dialogue: 0,0:07:51.09,0:07:58.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,was used to make this little carbon fiber test part,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:58.54,0:08:00.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which doubles as a carbon cap.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:00.88,0:08:02.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:08:02.44,0:08:05.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In one minute -- and you can tell from the sound
Dialogue: 0,0:08:05.50,0:08:08.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how immensely stiff and strong it is.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:08.33,0:08:11.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Don't worry about dropping it, it's tougher than titanium.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:11.82,0:08:14.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Tom Friedman actually whacked it as hard as he could with a sledgehammer
Dialogue: 0,0:08:14.05,0:08:15.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,without even scuffing it.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:15.59,0:08:17.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But such manufacturing techniques
Dialogue: 0,0:08:17.70,0:08:20.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,can scale to automotive speed and cost
Dialogue: 0,0:08:20.92,0:08:22.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with aerospace performance.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:22.38,0:08:25.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They can save four-fifths of the capital needed to make autos.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:25.90,0:08:27.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They can save lives
Dialogue: 0,0:08:27.06,0:08:28.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because this stuff can absorb
Dialogue: 0,0:08:28.35,0:08:31.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,up to 12 times as much crash energy per pound as steel.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:31.62,0:08:33.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If we made all of our autos this way,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:33.37,0:08:36.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it would save oil equivalent to finding
Dialogue: 0,0:08:36.29,0:08:39.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,one and a half Saudi Arabias, or half an OPEC,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:39.12,0:08:43.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by drilling in the Detroit formation, a very prospective play.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:43.55,0:08:46.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And all those mega-barrels under Detroit
Dialogue: 0,0:08:46.25,0:08:48.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,cost an average of 18 bucks a barrel.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:48.77,0:08:50.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They are all-American, carbon-free
Dialogue: 0,0:08:50.61,0:08:52.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and inexhaustible.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:52.93,0:08:55.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The same physics and the same business logic
Dialogue: 0,0:08:55.69,0:08:57.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,also apply to big vehicles.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:57.23,0:08:59.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In the five years ending with 2010,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:59.92,0:09:04.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Walmart saved 60 percent of the fuel per ton-mile
Dialogue: 0,0:09:04.50,0:09:05.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in its giant fleet of heavy trucks
Dialogue: 0,0:09:05.90,0:09:07.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,through better logistics and design.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:07.30,0:09:10.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But just the technological savings in heavy trucks
Dialogue: 0,0:09:10.32,0:09:12.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,can get to two-thirds.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:12.20,0:09:15.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And combined with triple to quintuple efficiency airplanes,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:15.49,0:09:17.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,now on the drawing board,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:17.21,0:09:19.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,can save close to a trillion dollars.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:19.45,0:09:23.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Also today's military revolution in energy efficiency
Dialogue: 0,0:09:23.82,0:09:26.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is going to speed up all of these civilian advances
Dialogue: 0,0:09:26.80,0:09:29.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in much the same way that military R&D
Dialogue: 0,0:09:29.33,0:09:32.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,has given us the Internet, the Global Positioning System
Dialogue: 0,0:09:32.52,0:09:35.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the jet engine and microchip industries.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:35.59,0:09:39.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,As we design and build vehicles better,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:39.12,0:09:41.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we can also use them smarter
Dialogue: 0,0:09:41.22,0:09:43.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by harnessing four powerful techniques
Dialogue: 0,0:09:43.46,0:09:45.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for eliminating needless driving.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:45.45,0:09:48.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Instead of just seeing the travel grow,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:48.25,0:09:50.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we can use innovative pricing,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:50.90,0:09:54.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,charging for road infrastructure by the mile, not by the gallon.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:54.85,0:09:58.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We can use some smart IT to enhance transit
Dialogue: 0,0:09:58.10,0:10:01.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and enable car sharing and ride sharing.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:01.64,0:10:05.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We can allow smart and lucrative growth models
Dialogue: 0,0:10:05.90,0:10:10.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that help people already be near where they want to be,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:10.08,0:10:11.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so they don't need to go somewhere else.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:11.59,0:10:13.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And we can use smart IT
Dialogue: 0,0:10:13.70,0:10:16.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to make traffic free-flowing.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:16.25,0:10:19.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Together, those things can give us the same or better access
Dialogue: 0,0:10:19.07,0:10:23.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with 46 to 84 percent less driving,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:23.57,0:10:26.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,saving another 0.4 trillion dollars,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:26.20,0:10:31.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,plus 0.3 trillion dollars from using trucks more productively.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:31.20,0:10:33.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So 40 years hence, when you add it all up,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:33.90,0:10:36.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a far more mobile U.S. economy
Dialogue: 0,0:10:36.91,0:10:38.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,can use no oil.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:38.99,0:10:42.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Saving or displacing barrels for 25 bucks
Dialogue: 0,0:10:42.50,0:10:43.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,rather than buying them for over a hundred,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:43.90,0:10:47.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,adds up to a $4 trillion net saving
Dialogue: 0,0:10:47.68,0:10:50.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,counting all the hidden costs at zero.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:50.68,0:10:53.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So to get mobility without oil,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:53.60,0:10:55.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to phase out the oil,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:55.70,0:10:59.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we can get efficient and then switch fuels.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:59.13,0:11:03.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Those 125 to 240 mile-per-gallon-equivalent autos
Dialogue: 0,0:11:03.48,0:11:07.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,can use any mixture of hydrogen fuel cells,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:07.32,0:11:10.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,electricity and advanced biofuels.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:10.43,0:11:14.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The trucks and planes can realistically use
Dialogue: 0,0:11:14.08,0:11:16.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,hydrogen or advanced biofuels.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:16.90,0:11:18.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The trucks could even use natural gas.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:18.97,0:11:20.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But no vehicles will need oil.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:20.97,0:11:24.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the most biofuel we might need,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:24.05,0:11:25.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,just three million barrels a day,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:25.80,0:11:27.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,can be made two-thirds from waste
Dialogue: 0,0:11:27.43,0:11:29.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,without displacing any cropland
Dialogue: 0,0:11:29.27,0:11:32.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and without harming soil or climate.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:32.30,0:11:34.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Our team speeds up these kinds of oil savings
Dialogue: 0,0:11:34.32,0:11:37.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by what we call "institutional acupuncture."
Dialogue: 0,0:11:37.27,0:11:38.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We figure out where the business logic
Dialogue: 0,0:11:38.67,0:11:41.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is congested and not flowing properly,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:41.14,0:11:42.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we stick little needles in it to get it flowing,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:42.95,0:11:45.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,working with partners like Ford and Walmart and the Pentagon.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:45.44,0:11:48.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the long transition is already well under way.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:48.90,0:11:53.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In fact, three years ago mainstream analysts were starting to see peak oil,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:53.20,0:11:56.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not in supply, but in demand.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:56.15,0:12:01.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And Deutsche Bank even said world oil use could peak around 2016.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:01.26,0:12:05.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In other words, oil is getting uncompetitive even at low prices
Dialogue: 0,0:12:05.92,0:12:10.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,before it becomes unavailable even at high prices.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:10.02,0:12:12.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But the electrified vehicles
Dialogue: 0,0:12:12.94,0:12:15.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,don't need to burden the electricity grid.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:15.72,0:12:19.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Rather, when smart autos exchange electricity and information
Dialogue: 0,0:12:19.16,0:12:21.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,through smart buildings with smart grids,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:21.58,0:12:24.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they're adding to the grid valuable flexibility and storage
Dialogue: 0,0:12:24.90,0:12:26.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that help the grid integrate
Dialogue: 0,0:12:26.75,0:12:29.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,varying solar and wind power.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:29.60,0:12:31.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So the electrified autos
Dialogue: 0,0:12:31.27,0:12:33.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,make the auto and electricity problems
Dialogue: 0,0:12:33.90,0:12:36.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,easier to solve together than separately.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:36.13,0:12:37.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And they also converge the oil story
Dialogue: 0,0:12:37.96,0:12:40.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with our second big story,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:40.55,0:12:44.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,saving electricity and then making it differently.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:44.31,0:12:47.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And those twin revolutions in electricity
Dialogue: 0,0:12:47.29,0:12:50.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,will bring to that sector
Dialogue: 0,0:12:50.34,0:12:53.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,more numerous and profound and diverse disruptions
Dialogue: 0,0:12:53.13,0:12:54.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,than any other sector,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:54.49,0:12:58.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because we've got 21st century technology and speed colliding head-on
Dialogue: 0,0:12:58.70,0:13:03.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with 20th and 19th century institutions, rules and cultures.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:03.40,0:13:06.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Changing how we make electricity gets easier
Dialogue: 0,0:13:06.48,0:13:08.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if we need less of it.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:08.99,0:13:10.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Most of it now is wasted
Dialogue: 0,0:13:10.65,0:13:12.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the technologies for saving it
Dialogue: 0,0:13:12.63,0:13:15.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,keep improving faster than we're installing them.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:15.59,0:13:18.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So the unbought efficiency resource
Dialogue: 0,0:13:18.03,0:13:20.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,keeps getting ever bigger and cheaper.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:20.93,0:13:23.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But as efficiency in buildings and industry
Dialogue: 0,0:13:23.100,0:13:25.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,starts to grow faster than the economy,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:25.97,0:13:30.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,America's electricity use could actually shrink,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:30.39,0:13:33.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,even with the little extra use required
Dialogue: 0,0:13:33.99,0:13:35.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for those efficient electrified autos.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:35.97,0:13:40.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And we can do this just by reasonably accelerating existing trends.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:40.80,0:13:43.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Over the next 40 years, buildings,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:43.13,0:13:45.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which use three-quarters of the electricity,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:45.34,0:13:49.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,can triple or quadruple their energy productivity,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:49.18,0:13:53.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,saving 1.4 trillion dollars, net present value,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:53.10,0:13:56.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with a 33 percent internal rate of return
Dialogue: 0,0:13:56.70,0:13:58.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or in English,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:58.37,0:14:01.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the savings are worth four times what they cost.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:01.57,0:14:03.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And industry can accelerate too,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:03.80,0:14:05.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,doubling its energy productivity
Dialogue: 0,0:14:05.52,0:14:08.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with a 21 percent internal rate of return.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:08.47,0:14:10.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The key is a disruptive innovation
Dialogue: 0,0:14:10.51,0:14:13.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that we call integrative design
Dialogue: 0,0:14:13.33,0:14:16.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that often makes very big energy savings
Dialogue: 0,0:14:16.26,0:14:18.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,cost less than small or no savings.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:18.74,0:14:21.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That is, it can give you expanding returns,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:21.36,0:14:23.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not diminishing returns.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:23.22,0:14:26.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That is how our 2010 retrofit
Dialogue: 0,0:14:26.96,0:14:30.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is saving over two-fifths of the energy in the Empire State Building --
Dialogue: 0,0:14:30.17,0:14:34.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,remanufacturing those six and a half thousand windows on site
Dialogue: 0,0:14:34.32,0:14:38.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,into super windows that pass light, but reflect heat.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:38.63,0:14:41.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,plus better lights and office equipment and such
Dialogue: 0,0:14:41.82,0:14:45.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,cut the maximum cooling load by a third.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:45.43,0:14:50.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And then renovating smaller chillers instead of adding bigger ones
Dialogue: 0,0:14:50.50,0:14:52.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,saved 17 million dollars of
Dialogue: 0,0:14:52.02,0:14:55.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,capital cost, which helped pay for the other improvements
Dialogue: 0,0:14:55.40,0:14:59.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and reduce the payback to just three years.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:59.44,0:15:01.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Integrative design can also increase
Dialogue: 0,0:15:01.67,0:15:03.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,energy savings in industry.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:03.88,0:15:05.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Dow's billion-dollar efficiency investment
Dialogue: 0,0:15:05.87,0:15:09.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,has already returned nine billion dollars.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:09.17,0:15:12.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But industry as a whole has another half-trillion dollars
Dialogue: 0,0:15:12.11,0:15:14.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of energy still to save.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:14.31,0:15:18.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For example, three-fifths of the world's electricity runs motors.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:18.87,0:15:20.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Half of that runs pumps and fans.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:20.94,0:15:23.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And those can all be made more efficient,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:23.81,0:15:25.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the motors that turn them
Dialogue: 0,0:15:25.52,0:15:29.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,can have their system efficiency roughly doubled
Dialogue: 0,0:15:29.18,0:15:33.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by integrating 35 improvements, paying back in about a year.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:33.09,0:15:36.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But first we ought to be capturing bigger, cheaper savings
Dialogue: 0,0:15:36.32,0:15:38.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that are normally ignored and are not in the textbooks.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:38.97,0:15:42.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For example, pumps, the biggest use of motors,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:42.12,0:15:43.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,move liquid through pipes.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:43.94,0:15:45.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But a standard industrial pumping loop
Dialogue: 0,0:15:45.74,0:15:50.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,was redesigned to use at least 86 percent less energy,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:50.12,0:15:52.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not by getting better pumps,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:52.05,0:15:55.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but just by replacing long, thin, crooked pipes
Dialogue: 0,0:15:55.44,0:15:58.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with fat, short, straight pipes.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:58.05,0:16:01.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is not about new technology,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:01.27,0:16:03.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's just rearranging our metal furniture.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:03.24,0:16:05.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Of course, it also shrinks the pumping equipment
Dialogue: 0,0:16:05.60,0:16:07.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and its capital costs.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:07.31,0:16:09.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So what do such savings mean
Dialogue: 0,0:16:09.93,0:16:13.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for the electricity that is three-fifths used in motors?
Dialogue: 0,0:16:13.62,0:16:16.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, from the coal burned at the power plant
Dialogue: 0,0:16:16.72,0:16:19.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,through all these compounding losses,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:19.84,0:16:22.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,only a tenth of the fuel energy
Dialogue: 0,0:16:22.66,0:16:25.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,actually ends up coming out the pipe as flow.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:25.66,0:16:29.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But now let's turn those compounding losses around backwards,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:29.33,0:16:34.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and every unit of flow or friction that we save in the pipe
Dialogue: 0,0:16:34.96,0:16:39.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,saves 10 units of fuel cost, pollution
Dialogue: 0,0:16:39.11,0:16:41.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and what Hunter Lovins calls "global weirding"
Dialogue: 0,0:16:41.73,0:16:43.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,back at the power plant.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:43.13,0:16:44.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And of course, as you go back upstream,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:44.82,0:16:48.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the components get smaller and therefore cheaper.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:48.12,0:16:52.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Our team has lately found such snowballing energy savings
Dialogue: 0,0:16:52.70,0:16:55.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in more than 30 billion dollars worth of industrial redesigns --
Dialogue: 0,0:16:55.94,0:16:58.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,everything from data centers and chip fabs
Dialogue: 0,0:16:58.67,0:17:00.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to mines and refineries.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:00.86,0:17:02.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Typically our retrofit designs
Dialogue: 0,0:17:02.30,0:17:05.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,save about 30 to 60 percent of the energy
Dialogue: 0,0:17:05.25,0:17:07.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and pay back in a few years,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:07.20,0:17:11.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,while the new facility designs save 40 to 90-odd percent
Dialogue: 0,0:17:11.37,0:17:13.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with generally lower capital cost.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:13.80,0:17:16.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now needing less electricity
Dialogue: 0,0:17:16.86,0:17:19.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,would ease and speed
Dialogue: 0,0:17:19.18,0:17:22.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the shift to new sources of electricity, chiefly renewables.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:22.34,0:17:26.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,China leads their explosive growth and their plummeting cost.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:26.82,0:17:30.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In fact, these solar power module costs
Dialogue: 0,0:17:30.25,0:17:32.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,have just fallen off the bottom of the chart.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:32.62,0:17:35.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And Germany now has more solar workers
Dialogue: 0,0:17:35.70,0:17:38.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,than America has steel workers.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:38.33,0:17:40.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Already in about 20 states
Dialogue: 0,0:17:40.18,0:17:42.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,private installers will come
Dialogue: 0,0:17:42.53,0:17:46.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,put those cheap solar cells on your roof with no money down
Dialogue: 0,0:17:46.02,0:17:47.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and beat your utility bill.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:47.89,0:17:50.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Such unregulated products
Dialogue: 0,0:17:50.08,0:17:52.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,could ultimately add up to a virtual utility
Dialogue: 0,0:17:52.93,0:17:55.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that bypasses your electric company
Dialogue: 0,0:17:55.89,0:17:59.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,just as your cellphone bypassed your wireline phone company.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:59.72,0:18:03.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And this sort of thing gives utility executives the heebee-jeebees
Dialogue: 0,0:18:03.14,0:18:05.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it gives venture capitalists sweet dreams.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:05.36,0:18:08.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Renewables are no longer a fringe activity.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:08.45,0:18:10.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For each of the past four years
Dialogue: 0,0:18:10.93,0:18:13.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,half of the world's new generating capacity
Dialogue: 0,0:18:13.77,0:18:15.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,has been renewable,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:15.36,0:18:17.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,mainly lately in developing countries.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:17.06,0:18:21.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In 2010, renewables other than big hydro,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:21.35,0:18:23.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,particularly wind and solar cells,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:23.68,0:18:28.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,got 151 billion dollars of private investment,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:28.67,0:18:31.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they actually surpassed the total installed capacity
Dialogue: 0,0:18:31.26,0:18:32.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of nuclear power in the world
Dialogue: 0,0:18:32.94,0:18:36.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by adding 60 billion watts in that one year.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:36.40,0:18:40.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That happens to be the same amount of solar cell capacity
Dialogue: 0,0:18:40.10,0:18:42.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that the world can now make every year --
Dialogue: 0,0:18:42.92,0:18:46.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a number that goes up 60 or 70 percent a year.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:46.26,0:18:51.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In contrast, the net additions of nuclear capacity and coal capacity
Dialogue: 0,0:18:51.80,0:18:55.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the orders behind those keep fading
Dialogue: 0,0:18:55.36,0:18:57.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because they cost too much and they have too much financial risk.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:57.90,0:18:59.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In fact in this country,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:59.30,0:19:01.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,no new nuclear power plant
Dialogue: 0,0:19:01.42,0:19:03.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,has been able to raise any private construction capital,
Dialogue: 0,0:19:03.93,0:19:08.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,despite seven years of 100-plus percent subsidies.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:08.35,0:19:12.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So how else could we replace the coal-fired power plants?
Dialogue: 0,0:19:12.35,0:19:16.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well efficiency and gas can displace them all
Dialogue: 0,0:19:16.12,0:19:18.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,at just below their operating cost
Dialogue: 0,0:19:18.80,0:19:22.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and, combined with renewables, can displace them more than 23 times
Dialogue: 0,0:19:22.56,0:19:24.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,at less than their replacement cost.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:24.63,0:19:26.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But we only need to replace them once.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:26.64,0:19:29.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We're often told though
Dialogue: 0,0:19:29.33,0:19:31.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that only coal and nuclear plants can keep the lights on,
Dialogue: 0,0:19:31.71,0:19:32.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because they're 24/7,
Dialogue: 0,0:19:32.100,0:19:35.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,whereas wind and solar power are variable,
Dialogue: 0,0:19:35.82,0:19:38.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and hence supposedly unreliable.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:38.83,0:19:42.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Actually no generator is 24/7. They all break.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:42.22,0:19:44.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And when a big plant goes down,
Dialogue: 0,0:19:44.33,0:19:47.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you lose a thousand megawatts in milliseconds,
Dialogue: 0,0:19:47.12,0:19:50.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,often for weeks or months, often without warning.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:50.62,0:19:52.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That is exactly why we've designed the grid
Dialogue: 0,0:19:52.62,0:19:56.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to back up failed plants with working plants.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:56.88,0:19:58.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And in exactly the same way,
Dialogue: 0,0:19:58.62,0:20:03.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the grid can handle wind and solar power's
Dialogue: 0,0:20:03.65,0:20:06.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,forecastable variations.
Dialogue: 0,0:20:06.20,0:20:09.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Hourly simulations
Dialogue: 0,0:20:09.50,0:20:13.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,show that largely or wholly renewable grids
Dialogue: 0,0:20:13.27,0:20:15.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,can deliver highly reliable power
Dialogue: 0,0:20:15.05,0:20:16.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when they're forecasted,
Dialogue: 0,0:20:16.68,0:20:18.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,integrated and diversified
Dialogue: 0,0:20:18.73,0:20:20.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by both type and location.
Dialogue: 0,0:20:20.78,0:20:25.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And that's true both for continental areas like the U.S. or Europe
Dialogue: 0,0:20:25.00,0:20:29.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and for smaller areas embedded within a larger grid.
Dialogue: 0,0:20:29.49,0:20:31.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That is how, for example,
Dialogue: 0,0:20:31.13,0:20:33.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,four German states in 2010
Dialogue: 0,0:20:33.51,0:20:36.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,were 43 to 52 percent wind powered.
Dialogue: 0,0:20:36.12,0:20:39.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Portugal was 45 percent renewable powered,
Dialogue: 0,0:20:39.77,0:20:42.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Denmark 36.
Dialogue: 0,0:20:42.09,0:20:45.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And it's how all of Europe can shift
Dialogue: 0,0:20:45.38,0:20:46.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to renewable electricity.
Dialogue: 0,0:20:46.66,0:20:51.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In America, our aging, dirty and insecure power system
Dialogue: 0,0:20:51.39,0:20:54.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,has to be replaced anyway by 2050.
Dialogue: 0,0:20:54.27,0:20:55.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And whatever we replace it with
Dialogue: 0,0:20:55.90,0:20:57.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is going to cost about the same,
Dialogue: 0,0:20:57.34,0:21:00.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about six trillion dollars at present value --
Dialogue: 0,0:21:00.05,0:21:02.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,whether we buy more of what we've got
Dialogue: 0,0:21:02.25,0:21:04.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or new nuclear and so-called clean coal,
Dialogue: 0,0:21:04.37,0:21:07.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or renewables that are more or less centralized.
Dialogue: 0,0:21:07.100,0:21:11.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But those four futures at the same cost
Dialogue: 0,0:21:11.27,0:21:13.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,differ profoundly in their risks,
Dialogue: 0,0:21:13.34,0:21:15.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,around national security,
Dialogue: 0,0:21:15.87,0:21:19.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,fuel, water, finance, technology,
Dialogue: 0,0:21:19.40,0:21:20.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,climate and health.
Dialogue: 0,0:21:20.94,0:21:23.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For example, our over-centralized grid
Dialogue: 0,0:21:23.77,0:21:27.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is very vulnerable to cascading
Dialogue: 0,0:21:27.70,0:21:30.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and potentially economy-shattering blackouts
Dialogue: 0,0:21:30.43,0:21:33.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,caused by bad space weather or other natural disasters
Dialogue: 0,0:21:33.87,0:21:35.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or a terrorist attack.
Dialogue: 0,0:21:35.81,0:21:38.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But that blackout risk disappears,
Dialogue: 0,0:21:38.54,0:21:40.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and all of the other risks are best managed,
Dialogue: 0,0:21:40.54,0:21:42.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with distributed renewables
Dialogue: 0,0:21:42.79,0:21:47.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,organized into local micro-grids that normally interconnect,
Dialogue: 0,0:21:47.07,0:21:48.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but can stand alone at need.
Dialogue: 0,0:21:48.88,0:21:50.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That is, they can disconnect fractally
Dialogue: 0,0:21:50.91,0:21:53.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then reconnect seamlessly.
Dialogue: 0,0:21:53.77,0:21:57.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That approach is exactly what the Pentagon is adopting
Dialogue: 0,0:21:57.04,0:21:58.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for its own power supply.
Dialogue: 0,0:21:58.36,0:22:01.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They think they need that; how about the rest of us that they're defending?
Dialogue: 0,0:22:01.62,0:22:03.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We want our stuff to work too.
Dialogue: 0,0:22:03.32,0:22:06.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,At about the same cost as business as usual,
Dialogue: 0,0:22:06.90,0:22:08.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this would maximize national security,
Dialogue: 0,0:22:08.90,0:22:12.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,customer choice, entrepreneurial opportunity
Dialogue: 0,0:22:12.90,0:22:14.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and innovation.
Dialogue: 0,0:22:14.52,0:22:20.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Together, efficient use and diverse dispersed renewable supply
Dialogue: 0,0:22:20.20,0:22:23.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are starting to transform the whole electricity sector.
Dialogue: 0,0:22:23.12,0:22:24.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Traditionally utilities build
Dialogue: 0,0:22:24.75,0:22:26.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a lot of giant coal and nuclear plants
Dialogue: 0,0:22:26.92,0:22:28.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and a bunch of big gas plants
Dialogue: 0,0:22:28.87,0:22:29.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and maybe a little bit of efficiency renewables.
Dialogue: 0,0:22:29.94,0:22:32.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And those utilities were rewarded,
Dialogue: 0,0:22:32.47,0:22:34.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as they still are in 34 states,
Dialogue: 0,0:22:34.92,0:22:38.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for selling you more electricity.
Dialogue: 0,0:22:38.39,0:22:41.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,However, especially where regulators
Dialogue: 0,0:22:41.18,0:22:44.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are now instead rewarding cutting your bills,
Dialogue: 0,0:22:44.74,0:22:48.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the investments are shifting radically
Dialogue: 0,0:22:48.52,0:22:51.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,toward efficiency, demand response, cogeneration,
Dialogue: 0,0:22:51.05,0:22:54.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,renewables and ways to knit them all together reliably
Dialogue: 0,0:22:54.42,0:22:55.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with less transmission
Dialogue: 0,0:22:55.84,0:22:58.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and little or no bulk electricity storage.
Dialogue: 0,0:22:58.70,0:23:01.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So our energy future is not fate, but choice,
Dialogue: 0,0:23:01.52,0:23:04.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that choice is very flexible.
Dialogue: 0,0:23:04.27,0:23:05.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In 1976, for example,
Dialogue: 0,0:23:05.87,0:23:07.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,government and industry insisted
Dialogue: 0,0:23:07.70,0:23:10.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that the amount of energy needed to make a dollar of GDP
Dialogue: 0,0:23:10.28,0:23:12.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,could never go down.
Dialogue: 0,0:23:12.06,0:23:15.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I heretically suggested it could go down several-fold.
Dialogue: 0,0:23:15.69,0:23:17.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well that's what's actually happened so far.
Dialogue: 0,0:23:17.96,0:23:19.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's fallen by half.
Dialogue: 0,0:23:19.27,0:23:21.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But with today's much better technologies,
Dialogue: 0,0:23:21.76,0:23:24.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,more mature delivery channels and integrative design,
Dialogue: 0,0:23:24.67,0:23:28.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we can do far more and even cheaper.
Dialogue: 0,0:23:28.57,0:23:31.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So to solve the energy problem,
Dialogue: 0,0:23:31.08,0:23:33.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we just needed to enlarge it.
Dialogue: 0,0:23:33.00,0:23:36.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the results may at first seem incredible,
Dialogue: 0,0:23:36.20,0:23:37.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but as Marshall McLuhan said,
Dialogue: 0,0:23:37.98,0:23:40.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Only puny secrets need protection.
Dialogue: 0,0:23:40.73,0:23:46.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Big discoveries are protected by public incredulity."
Dialogue: 0,0:23:46.81,0:23:50.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now combine the electricity and oil revolutions,
Dialogue: 0,0:23:50.30,0:23:51.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,both driven by modern efficiency,
Dialogue: 0,0:23:51.98,0:23:55.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and you get the really big story: reinventing fire,
Dialogue: 0,0:23:55.52,0:24:00.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where business enabled and sped by smart policies in mindful markets
Dialogue: 0,0:24:00.65,0:24:05.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,can lead the United States completely off oil and coal by 2050,
Dialogue: 0,0:24:05.18,0:24:07.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,saving 5 trillion dollars,
Dialogue: 0,0:24:07.50,0:24:10.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,growing the economy 2.6-fold,
Dialogue: 0,0:24:10.10,0:24:11.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,strengthening out national security,
Dialogue: 0,0:24:11.74,0:24:14.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,oh, and by the way, by getting rid of the oil and coal,
Dialogue: 0,0:24:14.72,0:24:19.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,reducing the fossil carbon emissions by 82 to 86 percent.
Dialogue: 0,0:24:19.23,0:24:22.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now if you like any of those outcomes,
Dialogue: 0,0:24:22.57,0:24:24.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you can support reinventing fire
Dialogue: 0,0:24:24.76,0:24:26.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,without needing to like all of them
Dialogue: 0,0:24:26.62,0:24:30.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and without needing to agree about which of them is most important.
Dialogue: 0,0:24:30.04,0:24:33.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So focusing on outcomes, not motives,
Dialogue: 0,0:24:33.12,0:24:35.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,can turn gridlock and conflict
Dialogue: 0,0:24:35.68,0:24:39.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,into a unifying solution to America's energy challenge.
Dialogue: 0,0:24:39.98,0:24:43.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This also turns out to be the best way
Dialogue: 0,0:24:43.04,0:24:45.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to cope with global challenges --
Dialogue: 0,0:24:45.54,0:24:48.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,climate change, nuclear proliferation,
Dialogue: 0,0:24:48.12,0:24:50.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,energy insecurity, energy poverty --
Dialogue: 0,0:24:50.55,0:24:54.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,all of which make us less safe.
Dialogue: 0,0:24:54.19,0:24:57.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now our team at RMI helps smart companies
Dialogue: 0,0:24:57.88,0:25:00.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to get unstuck and speed this journey
Dialogue: 0,0:25:00.95,0:25:04.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,via six sectoral initiatives, with some more hatching.
Dialogue: 0,0:25:04.01,0:25:06.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Of course there's still a lot of old thinking out there too.
Dialogue: 0,0:25:06.97,0:25:10.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Former oil man Maurice Strong said,
Dialogue: 0,0:25:10.14,0:25:12.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Not all the fossils are in the fuel."
Dialogue: 0,0:25:12.09,0:25:16.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But as Edgar Woolard, who used to chair Dupont, reminds us,
Dialogue: 0,0:25:16.40,0:25:20.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Companies hampered by old thinking won't be a problem
Dialogue: 0,0:25:20.54,0:25:26.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because," he said," they simply won't be around long-term."
Dialogue: 0,0:25:26.12,0:25:28.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I've described not just a once-in-a-civilization
Dialogue: 0,0:25:28.98,0:25:30.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,business opportunity,
Dialogue: 0,0:25:30.59,0:25:33.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but one of the most profound transitions
Dialogue: 0,0:25:33.02,0:25:35.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the history of our species.
Dialogue: 0,0:25:35.53,0:25:38.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We humans are inventing a new fire,
Dialogue: 0,0:25:38.95,0:25:40.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not dug from below,
Dialogue: 0,0:25:40.70,0:25:43.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but flowing from above;
Dialogue: 0,0:25:43.60,0:25:46.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not scarce, but bountiful;
Dialogue: 0,0:25:46.54,0:25:48.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not local, but everywhere;
Dialogue: 0,0:25:48.24,0:25:50.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not transient, but permanent;
Dialogue: 0,0:25:50.87,0:25:53.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not costly, but free.
Dialogue: 0,0:25:53.77,0:25:57.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And but for a little transitional tail of natural gas
Dialogue: 0,0:25:57.17,0:26:00.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and a bit of biofuel grown in ways that sustain and endure,
Dialogue: 0,0:26:00.73,0:26:04.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this new fire is flameless.
Dialogue: 0,0:26:04.44,0:26:08.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Efficiently used, it really can do our work
Dialogue: 0,0:26:08.50,0:26:11.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,without working our undoing.
Dialogue: 0,0:26:11.36,0:26:16.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Each of you owns a piece of that $5 trillion prize.
Dialogue: 0,0:26:16.24,0:26:18.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And our new book "Reinventing Fire"
Dialogue: 0,0:26:18.49,0:26:20.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,describes how you can capture it.
Dialogue: 0,0:26:20.88,0:26:23.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So with the conversation just begun
Dialogue: 0,0:26:23.15,0:26:25.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,at ReinventingFire.com,
Dialogue: 0,0:26:25.03,0:26:27.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,let me invite you each
Dialogue: 0,0:26:27.16,0:26:31.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to engage with us and with each other, with everyone around you,
Dialogue: 0,0:26:31.00,0:26:33.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to help make the world richer, fairer,
Dialogue: 0,0:26:33.79,0:26:36.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,cooler and safer
Dialogue: 0,0:26:36.40,0:26:39.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by together reinventing fire.
Dialogue: 0,0:26:39.21,0:26:41.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Thank you.
Dialogue: 0,0:26:41.07,0:26:42.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Applause)