A 40-year plan for energy
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0:00 - 0:02America's public energy conversation
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0:02 - 0:04boils down to this question:
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0:04 - 0:08Would you rather die of A.) oil wars,
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0:08 - 0:11or B.) climate change,
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0:11 - 0:12or C.) nuclear holocaust,
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0:12 - 0:15or D.) all of the above?
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0:15 - 0:18Oh, I missed one: or E.) none of the above?
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0:18 - 0:20That's the one we're not normally offered.
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0:20 - 0:22What if we could make energy do our work
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0:22 - 0:23without working out undoing?
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0:23 - 0:27Could we have fuel without fear?
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0:27 - 0:29Could we reinvent fire?
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0:29 - 0:30You see, fire made us human;
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0:30 - 0:33fossil fuels made us modern.
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0:33 - 0:34But now we need a new fire
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0:34 - 0:38that makes us safe, secure, healthy and durable.
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0:38 - 0:40Let's see how.
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0:40 - 0:43Four-fifths of the world's energy
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0:43 - 0:45still comes from burning each year
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0:45 - 0:48four cubic miles of the rotted remains
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0:48 - 0:51of primeval swamp goo.
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0:51 - 0:53Those fossil fuels
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0:53 - 0:54have built our civilization.
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0:54 - 0:56They've created our wealth.
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0:56 - 0:57They've enriched the lives of billions.
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0:57 - 1:01But they also have rising costs
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1:01 - 1:07to our security, economy, health and environment
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1:07 - 1:08that are starting to erode, if not outweigh their benefits.
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1:08 - 1:11So we need a new fire.
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1:11 - 1:15And switching from the old fire to the new fire
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1:15 - 1:19means changing two big stories about oil and electricity,
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1:19 - 1:24each of which puts two-fifths of the fossil carbon in the air.
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1:24 - 1:25But they're really quite distinct.
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1:25 - 1:28Less than one percent of our electricity is made from oil --
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1:28 - 1:32although almost half is made from coal.
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1:32 - 1:35Their uses are quite concentrated.
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1:35 - 1:37Three-fourths of our oil fuel is transportation.
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1:37 - 1:40Three-fourths of our electricity powers buildings.
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1:40 - 1:42And the rest of both runs factories.
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1:42 - 1:47So very efficient vehicles, buildings and factories
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1:47 - 1:48save oil and coal,
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1:48 - 1:52and also natural gas that can displace both of them.
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1:52 - 1:54But today's energy system is not just inefficient,
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1:54 - 1:57it is also disconnected,
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1:57 - 1:58aging, dirty and insecure.
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1:58 - 2:02So it needs refurbishment.
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2:02 - 2:05By 2050 though, it could become efficient,
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2:05 - 2:09connected and distributed
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2:09 - 2:11with elegantly frugal
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2:11 - 2:14autos, factories and buildings
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2:14 - 2:16all relying on a modern, secure
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2:16 - 2:19and resilient electricity system.
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2:19 - 2:23We can eliminate our addiction to oil and coal by 2050
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2:23 - 2:25and use one-third less natural gas
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2:25 - 2:29while switching to efficient use
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2:29 - 2:31and renewable supply.
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2:31 - 2:35This could cost, by 2050,
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2:35 - 2:38five trillion dollars less in net present value,
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2:38 - 2:42that is expressed as a lump sum today,
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2:42 - 2:43than business as usual --
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2:43 - 2:44assuming that carbon emissions
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2:44 - 2:47and all other hidden or external costs are worth zero --
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2:47 - 2:48a conservatively low estimate.
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2:48 - 2:54Yet this cheaper energy system
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2:54 - 2:58could support 158 percent bigger U.S. economy
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2:58 - 2:59all without needing oil or coal,
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2:59 - 3:03or for that matter nuclear energy.
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3:03 - 3:06Moreover, this transition needs no new inventions
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3:06 - 3:07and no acts of Congress
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3:07 - 3:13and no new federal taxes, mandate subsidies or laws
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3:13 - 3:17and running Washington gridlock.
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3:17 - 3:17Let me say that again.
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3:17 - 3:19I'm going to tell you how to get the United States
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3:19 - 3:22completely off oil and coal, five trillion dollars cheaper
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3:22 - 3:24with no act of Congress
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3:24 - 3:27led by business for profit.
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3:27 - 3:30In other words, we're going to use our most effective institutions --
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3:30 - 3:34private enterprise co-evolving with civil society
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3:34 - 3:37and sped by military innovation
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3:37 - 3:40to go around our least effective institutions.
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3:40 - 3:42And whether you care most
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3:42 - 3:44about profits and jobs and competitive advantage
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3:44 - 3:48or national security, or environmental stewardship
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3:48 - 3:50and climate protection and public health,
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3:50 - 3:53reinventing fire makes sense and makes money.
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3:53 - 3:55General Eisenhower reputedly said
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3:55 - 4:00that enlarging the boundaries of a tough problem
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4:00 - 4:05makes it soluble by encompassing more options and more synergies.
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4:05 - 4:06So in reinventing fire,
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4:06 - 4:09we integrated all four sectors that use energy --
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4:09 - 4:13transportation, buildings, industry and electricity --
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4:13 - 4:16and we integrated four kinds of innovation,
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4:16 - 4:19not just technology and policy,
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4:19 - 4:21but also design and business strategy.
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4:21 - 4:24Those combinations yield
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4:24 - 4:26very much more than the sum of the parts,
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4:26 - 4:28especially in creating deeply disruptive business opportunities.
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4:28 - 4:34Oil costs our economy two billion dollars a day,
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4:34 - 4:38plus another four billion dollars a day
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4:38 - 4:39in hidden economic and military costs,
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4:39 - 4:44raising its total cost to over a sixth of GDP.
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4:44 - 4:47Our mobility fuel goes three-fifths to automobiles.
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4:47 - 4:49So let's start by making autos oil free.
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4:49 - 4:52Two-thirds of the energy it takes to move a typical car
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4:52 - 4:54is caused by its weight.
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4:54 - 4:58And every unit of energy you save at the wheels,
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4:58 - 4:59by taking out weight or drag,
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4:59 - 5:01saves seven units in the tank,
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5:01 - 5:04because you don't have to waste six units
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5:04 - 5:06getting the energy to the wheels.
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5:06 - 5:08Unfortunately, of the past quarter century,
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5:08 - 5:12epidemic obesity has made our two-ton steel cars
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5:12 - 5:14gain weight twice as fast as we have.
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5:14 - 5:19But today, ultralight, ultrastrong materials,
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5:19 - 5:20like carbon fiber composites,
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5:20 - 5:24can make dramatic weight-saving snowball
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5:24 - 5:26and can make cars simpler and cheaper to build.
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5:26 - 5:30Lighter and more slippery autos
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5:30 - 5:32need less force to move them,
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5:32 - 5:35so their engines get smaller.
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5:35 - 5:38Indeed, that sort of vehicle fitness
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5:38 - 5:41then makes electric propulsion affordable
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5:41 - 5:44because the batteries fuel cells
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5:44 - 5:48also get smaller and lighter and cheaper.
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5:48 - 5:52So sticker prices will ultimately fall to about the same as today,
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5:52 - 5:55while the driving cost, even from the start,
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5:55 - 5:58is very much lower.
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5:58 - 6:00So these innovations together can transform automakers
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6:00 - 6:03from wringing tiny savings
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6:03 - 6:05out of Victorian engine and seal-stamping technologies
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6:05 - 6:09to the steeply falling costs
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6:09 - 6:14of three linked innovations that strongly reenforce each other --
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6:14 - 6:18namely ultralight materials, making them into structures
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6:18 - 6:21and electric propulsion.
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6:21 - 6:26The sales can grow and the prices fall even faster
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6:26 - 6:27with temporary feebates,
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6:27 - 6:29that is rebates for efficient new autos
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6:29 - 6:33paid for by fees on inefficient ones.
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6:33 - 6:34And just in the first two years
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6:34 - 6:38the biggest of Europe's five feebate programs
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6:38 - 6:41has tripled the speed of improving automotive efficiency.
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6:41 - 6:46The resulting shift to electric autos
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6:46 - 6:48is going to be as game-changing
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6:48 - 6:52as shifting from typewriters to the gains in computers.
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6:52 - 6:54Of course, computers and electronics
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6:54 - 6:57are now America's biggest industry,
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6:57 - 6:58while typewriter makers have vanished.
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6:58 - 7:00So vehicle fitness
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7:00 - 7:03opens a new automotive competitive strategy
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7:03 - 7:07that can double the oil savings over the next 40 years,
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7:07 - 7:10but then also make electrication affordable,
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7:10 - 7:13and that displaces the rest of the oil.
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7:13 - 7:18America could lead this next automotive revolution.
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7:18 - 7:20Currently the leader is Germany.
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7:20 - 7:22Last year, Volkswagen announced
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7:22 - 7:24that by next year they'll be producing
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7:24 - 7:24this carbon fiber plugin hybrid
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7:24 - 7:30getting 230 miles a gallon.
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7:30 - 7:32Also last year, BMW announced
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7:32 - 7:34this carbon fiber electric car,
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7:34 - 7:37they said that its carbon fiber is paid for
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7:37 - 7:40by needing fewer batteries.
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7:40 - 7:42And they said, "We do not intend to be a typewriter maker."
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7:42 - 7:44Audi claimed it's going to beat them both by a year.
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7:44 - 7:48Seven years ago, an even faster and cheaper
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7:48 - 7:49American manufacturing technology
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7:49 - 7:56was used to make this little carbon fiber test part,
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7:56 - 8:00which doubles as a carbon cap.
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8:00 - 8:03(Laughter)
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8:03 - 8:06In one minute -- and you can tell from the sound
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8:06 - 8:08how immensely still and strong it is.
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8:08 - 8:10Don't worry about dropping it, it's tougher than titanium.
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8:10 - 8:15Tom Friedman actually whacked it as hard as he could with a sledgehammer
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8:15 - 8:16without even scuffing it.
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8:16 - 8:17But such manufacturing techniques
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8:17 - 8:17can scale to automotive speed and cost
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8:17 - 8:21with aerospace performance.
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8:21 - 8:26They can save four-fifths of the capital needed to make autos.
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8:26 - 8:27They can save lives
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8:27 - 8:28because this stuff can absorb
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8:28 - 8:30up to 12 times as much crash energy per pound as steel.
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8:30 - 8:33If we made all of our autos this way,
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8:33 - 8:35it would save oil equivalent to finding
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8:35 - 8:38one and a half Saudi Arabias, or half an OPEC,
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8:38 - 8:42by drilling in the Detroit formation, a very prospective play.
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8:42 - 8:43And all those mega-barrels under Detroit
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8:43 - 8:49cost an average of 18 bucks a barrel.
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8:49 - 8:50They are all-American, carbon-free
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8:50 - 8:53and inexhaustible.
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8:53 - 8:54The same physics and the same business logic
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8:54 - 8:57also apply to big vehicles.
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8:57 - 8:59In the five years ending with 2010,
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8:59 - 9:04Walmart saved 60 percent of the fuel-per-ton-mile
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9:04 - 9:06in its giant fleet of heavy trucks
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9:06 - 9:07through better logistics and design.
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9:07 - 9:10But just the technological savings in heavy trucks
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9:10 - 9:12can get two-thirds.
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9:12 - 9:15And combined with triple to quintuple efficiency airplanes,
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9:15 - 9:18now on the drawing board,
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9:18 - 9:19can save close to a trillion dollars.
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9:19 - 9:24Also today's military revolution in energy efficiency
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9:24 - 9:26is going to speed up all of these civilian advances
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9:26 - 9:29in much the same way that military R&D
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9:29 - 9:32has given us the internet, the Global Positioning System
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9:32 - 9:35and the jet engine and microchip industries.
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9:35 - 9:38As we design and build vehicles better,
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9:38 - 9:41we can also use them smarter
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9:41 - 9:42by harnessing four powerful techniques
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9:42 - 9:45for eliminating needless driving.
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9:45 - 9:47Instead of just seeing the travel grow,
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9:47 - 9:51we can use innovative pricing,
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9:51 - 9:52charging for road infrastructure by the mile, not by the gallon.
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9:52 - 9:58We can use some smart I.T. to enhance transit
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9:58 - 10:01and enable car sharing and ride sharing.
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10:01 - 10:06We can allow smart and lucrative growth models
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10:06 - 10:09that help people already be near where they want to be,
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10:09 - 10:11so they don't need to go somewhere else.
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10:11 - 10:14And we can use smart I.T.
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10:14 - 10:15to make traffic free-flowing.
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10:15 - 10:19Together, those things can give us the same or better access
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10:19 - 10:24with 46 to 84 percent less driving,
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10:24 - 10:26saving another 0.4 trillion dollars,
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10:26 - 10:31plus 0.3 trillion dollars from using trucks more productively.
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10:31 - 10:34So 40 years hence, when you add it all up,
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10:34 - 10:34a far more mobile U.S. economy
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10:34 - 10:38can use no oil.
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10:38 - 10:42Saving or displacing barrels for 25 bucks
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10:42 - 10:44rather than buying them for over a hundred,
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10:44 - 10:47adds up to over a trillion-dollar net saving
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10:47 - 10:49counting all the hidden costs at zero.
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10:49 - 10:54So to get mobility without oil,
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10:54 - 10:56to phase out the oil,
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10:56 - 10:58we can get it efficient and then switch fuels.
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10:58 - 11:02Those 125 to 240 mile per gallon equivalent autos
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11:02 - 11:06can use any mixture of hydrogen fuel cells,
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11:06 - 11:10electricity and advanced biofuels.
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11:10 - 11:12The trucks and planes can realistically use
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11:12 - 11:15hydrogen or advanced biofuels.
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11:15 - 11:19The trucks could even use natural gas.
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11:19 - 11:20But no vehicles will need oil.
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11:20 - 11:22And the most biofuel we might need,
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11:22 - 11:25just three million barrels a day,
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11:25 - 11:27can be made two-thirds from waste
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11:27 - 11:29without displacing any cropland
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11:29 - 11:32and without harming soil or climate.
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11:32 - 11:34Our team speeds up these kinds of oil savings
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11:34 - 11:37by what we call "institutional acupuncture."
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11:37 - 11:39We figure out where the business logic
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11:39 - 11:39is congested and not flowing properly,
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11:39 - 11:43we stick little needles in it to get it flowing,
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11:43 - 11:44working with partners like Ford and Walmart and the Pentagon.
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11:44 - 11:48And the long transition is already well under way.
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11:48 - 11:52In fact, three years ago mainstream analysts were starting to see peak oil,
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11:52 - 11:53not in supply, but in demand.
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11:53 - 12:00And Deutsche Bank even world oil use could peak around 2016.
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12:00 - 12:03In other words, oil is getting uncompetitive even at low prices
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12:03 - 12:08before it becomes unavailable even at high prices.
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12:08 - 12:12But the electrified vehicles
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12:12 - 12:13don't need to burden the electricity grid.
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12:13 - 12:18Rather, when smart autos exchange electricity and information
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12:18 - 12:21through smart buildings with smart grids,
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12:21 - 12:23they're adding to the grid valuable flexibility and storage
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12:23 - 12:26that help the grid integrate
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12:26 - 12:28varying solar and wind power.
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12:28 - 12:31So the electrified autos
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12:31 - 12:32make the auto and electricity problems
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12:32 - 12:36easier to solve together than separately.
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12:36 - 12:38And they also converge the oil story
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12:38 - 12:39with our second big story,
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12:39 - 12:43saving electricity and then making it differently.
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12:43 - 12:46And those twin revolutions in electricity
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12:46 - 12:50will bring to that sector
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12:50 - 12:51more numerous and profound and diverse disruptions
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12:51 - 12:52than any other sector,
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12:52 - 12:57because we've got 21st century technology and speed colliding head-on
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12:57 - 13:03with 20th and 19th century institutions, rules and cultures.
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13:03 - 13:06Changing how we make electricity gets easier
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13:06 - 13:06if we need less of it.
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13:06 - 13:09Most of it now is wasted
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13:09 - 13:13and the technologies for saving it
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13:13 - 13:14keep improving faster than we're installing them.
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13:14 - 13:18So the unbought efficiency resource
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13:18 - 13:21keeps getting ever bigger and cheaper.
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13:21 - 13:22But as efficiency in buildings and industry
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13:22 - 13:26starts to grow faster than the economy,
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13:26 - 13:28Americans' electricity use could actually shrink,
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13:28 - 13:33even with the little extra use required
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13:33 - 13:36for the efficient electrified autos.
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13:36 - 13:39And we can do this just by reasonably accelerating existing trends.
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13:39 - 13:43Over the next 40 years, buildings,
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13:43 - 13:44which use three-quarters of the electricity,
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13:44 - 13:48can triple or quadruple their energy productivity,
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13:48 - 13:53saving 1.4 trillion dollars, net present value,
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13:53 - 13:57with a 33 percent internal rate of return
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13:57 - 13:59or in English,
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13:59 - 14:01the savings are worth four times of what they cost.
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14:01 - 14:02And industry can accelerate too,
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14:02 - 14:03doubling its energy productivity
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14:03 - 14:08with a 21 percent internal rate of return.
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14:08 - 14:09The key is a disruptive innovation
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14:09 - 14:10that we call integrative design
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14:10 - 14:15that often makes very big energy savings
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14:15 - 14:19cost less than small or no savings.
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14:19 - 14:21That is, it can give you expanding returns,
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14:21 - 14:21not diminishing returns.
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14:21 - 14:26That is how our 2010 retrofit
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14:26 - 14:29is saving over two-fifths of the energy in the Empire State Building --
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14:29 - 14:33remanufacturing those six and a half thousand windows on site
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14:33 - 14:38into super windows that pass light, but reflect heat.
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14:38 - 14:41plus better lights and office equipment and such
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14:41 - 14:45cut the maximum cooling load by a third.
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14:45 - 14:50And then renovating smaller chillers instead of adding bigger ones
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14:50 - 14:52saved 17 million dollars --
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14:52 - 14:54a capital cost which helped pay for the other improvements
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14:54 - 14:57and reduce the payback to just three years.
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14:57 - 15:01Integrative design can also increase
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15:01 - 15:02energy savings in industry.
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15:02 - 15:06Dow's billion-dollar efficiency investment
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15:06 - 15:08has already returned nine billion dollars.
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15:08 - 15:10But industry as a whole has another half-trillion dollars
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15:10 - 15:13of energy still to save.
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15:13 - 15:19For example, three-fifths of the world's electricity runs motors.
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15:19 - 15:20Half of that runs pumps and fans.
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15:20 - 15:24And those can all be made more efficient,
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15:24 - 15:25and the motors that turn them
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15:25 - 15:28can have their system efficiency roughly doubled
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15:28 - 15:30by integrating 35 improvements, paying back in about a year.
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15:30 - 15:35But first we ought to be capturing bigger, cheaper savings
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15:35 - 15:39that are normally ignored and that are not in the textbooks.
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15:39 - 15:40For example, pumps, the biggest use of motors,
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15:40 - 15:43move liquid through pipes.
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15:43 - 15:45But a standard industrial pumping loop
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15:45 - 15:49was redesigned to use at least 86 percent less energy,
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15:49 - 15:51not by getting better pumps,
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15:51 - 15:55but just by replacing long, thin, crooked pipes
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15:55 - 15:57with fat, short, straight pipes.
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15:57 - 16:00This is not about new technology,
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16:00 - 16:02it's just rearranging our metal furniture.
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16:02 - 16:05Of course, it also shrinks the pumping equipment
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16:05 - 16:05and its capital costs.
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16:05 - 16:09So what do such savings mean
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16:09 - 16:13for the electricity that is three-fifths used in motors?
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16:13 - 16:16Well, from the coal burned at the power plant
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16:16 - 16:19through all these compounding losses,
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16:19 - 16:21only a tenth of the fuel energy
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16:21 - 16:25actually ends up coming out the pipe as flow.
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16:25 - 16:29But now let's turn those compounding losses around backwards,
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16:29 - 16:34and every unit of flow or friction that we save in the pipe
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16:34 - 16:37saves 10 units of fuel cost, pollution
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16:37 - 16:40and what Hunter Lovins calls "global weirding"
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16:40 - 16:43back at the power plant.
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16:43 - 16:44And of course, as you go back upstream,
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16:44 - 16:47the components get smaller and therefore cheaper.
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16:47 - 16:51Our team has lately found such snowballing energy savings
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16:51 - 16:55in more than 30 billion dollars-worth of industrial redisigns --
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16:55 - 16:59everything from data centers and chip fabs
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16:59 - 16:59to mines and refineries.
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16:59 - 17:02Typically are retrofit designs
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17:02 - 17:04save about 30 to 60 percent of the energy
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17:04 - 17:04and pay back in a few years,
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17:04 - 17:09while the new facility designs save 40 to 90-odd percent
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17:09 - 17:13with generally lower capital cost.
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17:13 - 17:16Now needing less electricity
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17:16 - 17:17would ease and speed
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17:17 - 17:22the shift to new sources of electricity, chiefly renewables.
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17:22 - 17:26China leads their explosive growth and their plummeting cost.
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17:26 - 17:29In fact, these solar powered module costs
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17:29 - 17:33have just fallen off the bottom of the chart.
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17:33 - 17:35And Germany now has more solar workers
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17:35 - 17:38than America has steel workers.
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17:38 - 17:39Already in about 20 states
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17:39 - 17:43private installers will come
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17:43 - 17:45put those cheap solar cells on your roof with no money down
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17:45 - 17:45and beat your utility bill.
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17:45 - 17:49Such unregulated products
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17:49 - 17:50could ultimately add up to a virtual utility
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17:50 - 17:54that bypasses your electric company
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17:54 - 17:59just as your cellphone bypassed your wireline phone company.
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17:59 - 18:01And this sort of thing gives utility executives the heebee-jeebees
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18:01 - 18:03and it gives venture capitalists sweet dreams..
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18:03 - 18:07Renewables are no longer a fringe activity.
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18:07 - 18:10For each of the past four years
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18:10 - 18:12half of the world's new generating capacity
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18:12 - 18:15has been renewable,
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18:15 - 18:16mainly lately in developing countries.
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18:16 - 18:20In 2010, renewables other than big hydro,
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18:20 - 18:23particularly wind and solar cells,
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18:23 - 18:27got 151 billion dollars of private investment,
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18:27 - 18:31and they actually surpassed the total installed capacity
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18:31 - 18:31of nuclear power in the world
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18:31 - 18:36by adding 60 billion watts in that one year.
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18:36 - 18:38That happens to be the same amount of solar cell capacity
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18:38 - 18:42that the world can now make every year --
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18:42 - 18:44a number that goes up 60 or 70 percent a year.
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18:44 - 18:49In contrast, the net additions of nuclear capacity and coal capacity
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18:49 - 18:53and the orders behind those keep fading
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18:53 - 18:58because they cost too much and they have too much financial risk.
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18:58 - 18:59In fact in this country,
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18:59 - 19:00no new nuclear power plant
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19:00 - 19:04has been able to raise any private construction capital,
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19:04 - 19:05despite seven years of 100-plus percent subsidies.
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19:05 - 19:10So how else could we replace the coal-fired power plants?
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19:10 - 19:14Well efficiency and gas can displace them all
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19:14 - 19:18at just below their operating cost
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19:18 - 19:21and, combined with renewables, can displace more than 23 times
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19:21 - 19:25at less than their replacement cost.
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19:25 - 19:25But we only need to replace them once.
-
19:25 - 19:28We're often told though
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19:28 - 19:31that only coal and nuclear plants can keep the lights on,
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19:31 - 19:32because they're 24/7,
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19:32 - 19:33whereas wind and solar power are variable,
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19:33 - 19:39and hence supposedly unreliable.
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19:39 - 19:40Actually no generator is 24/7. They all break.
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19:40 - 19:44And when a big plant goes down,
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19:44 - 19:46you lose a thousand megawatts in milliseconds,
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19:46 - 19:50often for weeks or months, often without warning.
-
19:50 - 19:52That is exactly why we've designed the grid
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19:52 - 19:56to back up failed plants with working plants.
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19:56 - 19:57And in exactly the same way,
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19:57 - 20:02the grid can handle wind and solar power's
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20:02 - 20:06forecastable variations.
-
20:06 - 20:08Hourly simulations
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20:08 - 20:12show that largely, or wholly, renewable grids
-
20:12 - 20:13can deliver highly reliable power
-
20:13 - 20:17when they're forecasted,
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20:17 - 20:17integrated and diversified
-
20:17 - 20:19by both type and location.
-
20:19 - 20:24And that's true both for continental areas like the U.S. or Europe
-
20:24 - 20:28and for smaller areas embedded within a larger grid.
-
20:28 - 20:31That is how, for example,
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20:31 - 20:32four German states in 2010
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20:32 - 20:35were 43 to 52 percent wind powered.
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20:35 - 20:40Portugal was 45 percent renewable powered,
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20:40 - 20:41Denmark 36.
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20:41 - 20:43And it's how all of Europe can shift
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20:43 - 20:45to renewable electricity.
-
20:45 - 20:50In America, our aging, dirty and insecure power system
-
20:50 - 20:50has to be replaced anyway by 2050.
-
20:50 - 20:55And whatever we replace it with
-
20:55 - 20:56is going to cost about the same,
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20:56 - 20:59about six trillion dollars at present value --
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20:59 - 21:01whether we buy more of what we've got
-
21:01 - 21:04or new nuclear and so-called clean coal,
-
21:04 - 21:06or renewables that are more or less centralized.
-
21:06 - 21:11But those four futures at the same cost
-
21:11 - 21:12differ profoundly in their risks,
-
21:12 - 21:16around national security,
-
21:16 - 21:17fuel, water, finance, technology,
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21:17 - 21:19climate and health.
-
21:19 - 21:22For example, our over-centralized grid
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21:22 - 21:26is very vulnerable to cascading
-
21:26 - 21:30and potential economy-shattering blackouts
-
21:30 - 21:34caused by bad space weather other natural disasters
-
21:34 - 21:35or a terrorist attack.
-
21:35 - 21:36But that blackout risk disappears,
-
21:36 - 21:40and all of the other risks are best managed,
-
21:40 - 21:41with distributed renewables
-
21:41 - 21:47organized into local micro-grids that normally interconnect,
-
21:47 - 21:48but can stand alone at need.
-
21:48 - 21:48That is, they can disconnect fractally
-
21:48 - 21:54and then reconnect seamlessly.
-
21:54 - 21:55That approach is exactly what the Pentagon is adopting
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21:55 - 21:56for its own power supply.
-
21:56 - 22:00They think they need that; how about the rest of us that they're defending?
-
22:00 - 22:01We want our stuff to work too.
-
22:01 - 22:05At about the same cost as business as usual,
-
22:05 - 22:08this would maximize national security,
-
22:08 - 22:12customer choice, entrepreneurial opportunity
-
22:12 - 22:12and innovation.
-
22:12 - 22:20Together, efficient use and diverse dispersed renewable supply
-
22:20 - 22:22are starting to transform the whole electricity sector.
-
22:22 - 22:24Traditionally utilities build
-
22:24 - 22:26a lot of giant coal and nuclear plants
-
22:26 - 22:26and a bunch of big gas plants
-
22:26 - 22:29and maybe a little bit of efficiency renewables.
-
22:29 - 22:32And those utilities were rewarded,
-
22:32 - 22:33as they still are in 34 states,
-
22:33 - 22:36for selling you more electricity.
-
22:36 - 22:41However, especially where regulators
-
22:41 - 22:42are not instead rewarding cutting your bills,
-
22:42 - 22:47the investments are shifting radically
-
22:47 - 22:50toward efficiency, demand response, cogeneration,
-
22:50 - 22:53renewables and ways to knit them all together reliably
-
22:53 - 22:55with less transmission
-
22:55 - 22:56and little or no bulk electricity storage.
-
22:56 - 23:01So our energy future is not fate, but choice,
-
23:01 - 23:02and that choice is very flexible.
-
23:02 - 23:05In 1976, for example,
-
23:05 - 23:06government and industry insisted
-
23:06 - 23:09that the amount of energy needed to make a dollar of GDP
-
23:09 - 23:12could never go down.
-
23:12 - 23:13And I heretically suggested it could go down several-fold.
-
23:13 - 23:17Well that's what's actually happened so far.
-
23:17 - 23:18It's fallen by half.
-
23:18 - 23:21But with today's much better technologies,
-
23:21 - 23:25more mature delivery channels and integrative design,
-
23:25 - 23:27we can do far more and even cheaper.
-
23:27 - 23:30So to solve the energy problem,
-
23:30 - 23:33we just needed to enlarge it.
-
23:33 - 23:34And the results may at first seem incredible,
-
23:34 - 23:35but as Marshall McLuhan said,
-
23:35 - 23:40"Only puny secrets need protection.
-
23:40 - 23:44Big discoveries are protected by public incredulity."
-
23:44 - 23:49Now combine the electricity and oil revolutions,
-
23:49 - 23:50both driven by modern efficiency,
-
23:50 - 23:53and you get the really big story, reinventing fire,
-
23:53 - 23:59where business enabled and sped by smart policies in mindful markets
-
23:59 - 24:03can lead the United States completely off oil and coal by 2050,
-
24:03 - 24:07saving 5 trillion dollars,
-
24:07 - 24:09growing the economy 2.6-fold,
-
24:09 - 24:11strengthening out national security,
-
24:11 - 24:13oh, and by the way, by getting rid of the oil and coal,
-
24:13 - 24:17reducing the fossil carbon emissions by 82 to 86 percent.
-
24:17 - 24:21Now if you like any of those outcomes,
-
24:21 - 24:22you can support reinventing fire
-
24:22 - 24:25without needing to like all of them
-
24:25 - 24:26and without needing to agree about which of them is most important.
-
24:26 - 24:32So focusing on outcomes, not motives,
-
24:32 - 24:35can turn gridlock and conflict
-
24:35 - 24:39into a unifying solution to America's energy challenge.
-
24:39 - 24:41This also turns out to be the best way
-
24:41 - 24:43to cope with global challenges --
-
24:43 - 24:46climate change, nuclear proliferation,
-
24:46 - 24:50energy insecurity, energy poverty --
-
24:50 - 24:53all of which make us less safe.
-
24:53 - 24:56Now our team at RMI helps smart companies
-
24:56 - 24:57to get unstuck and speed this journey
-
24:57 - 25:03by six central initiatives, with some more hatching.
-
25:03 - 25:07Of course there's still a lot of old thinking out there too.
-
25:07 - 25:08Former oil man Maurice Strong said,
-
25:08 - 25:08"Not all the fossils are in the fuel."
-
25:08 - 25:13But as Edgar Woolard, who used to chair Dupont, reminds us,
-
25:13 - 25:19"Companies hampered by old thinking won't be a problem
-
25:19 - 25:23because," he said," they simply won't be around long-term."
-
25:23 - 25:27I've described not just a once-in-a-civilization
-
25:27 - 25:30business opportunity,
-
25:30 - 25:32but one of the most profound transitions
-
25:32 - 25:36in the history of our species.
-
25:36 - 25:37We humans are inventing a new fire,
-
25:37 - 25:40not dug from below,
-
25:40 - 25:41but flowing from above;
-
25:41 - 25:45not scarce, but bountiful;
-
25:45 - 25:46not local, but everywhere;
-
25:46 - 25:50not transient, but permanent;
-
25:50 - 25:52not costly, but free.
-
25:52 - 25:55And but for a little transitional tale of natural gas
-
25:55 - 26:00and a bit of biofuel grown in ways that sustain and endure,
-
26:00 - 26:02this new fire is flameless.
-
26:02 - 26:07Efficiently used, it really can do our work
-
26:07 - 26:09without working our undoing.
-
26:09 - 26:16Each of you owns a piece of that five trillion-dollar prize.
-
26:16 - 26:17And our new book "Reinventing Fire"
-
26:17 - 26:19describes how you can capture it.
-
26:19 - 26:22So with the conversation just begun
-
26:22 - 26:23at ReinventingFire.com,
-
26:23 - 26:26let me invite you each
-
26:26 - 26:29to engage with us and with each other, with everyone around you,
-
26:29 - 26:32to help make the world richer, fairer,
-
26:32 - 26:32cooler and safer
-
26:32 - 26:37by together reinventing fire.
-
26:37 - 26:41Thank you.
-
26:41 - 26:42(Applause)
- Title:
- A 40-year plan for energy
- Speaker:
- Amory Lovins
- Description:
-
In this intimate talk filmed at TED's offices, energy theorist Amory Lovins lays out the steps we must take to end the world's dependence on oil (before we run out). Some changes are already happening -- like lighter-weight cars and smarter trucks -- but some require a bigger vision.
- Video Language:
- English
- Team:
- closed TED
- Project:
- TEDTalks
- Duration:
- 27:10
Jenny Zurawell edited English subtitles for A 40-year plan for energy | ||
Jenny Zurawell edited English subtitles for A 40-year plan for energy | ||
Zehra Ezgi HOŞSÖZ accepted English subtitles for A 40-year plan for energy | ||
Ng Nicole edited English subtitles for A 40-year plan for energy | ||
Jenny Zurawell edited English subtitles for A 40-year plan for energy | ||
Jenny Zurawell approved English subtitles for A 40-year plan for energy | ||
Jenny Zurawell edited English subtitles for A 40-year plan for energy | ||
Morton Bast accepted English subtitles for A 40-year plan for energy |