Your kids might live on Mars. Here's how they'll survive
-
0:01 - 0:03Strap yourselves in,
-
0:03 - 0:05we're going to Mars.
-
0:05 - 0:07Not just a few astronauts --
-
0:08 - 0:11thousands of people
are going to colonize Mars. -
0:11 - 0:14And I am telling you
that they're going to do this soon. -
0:15 - 0:18Some of you will end up
working on projects on Mars, -
0:18 - 0:21and I guarantee that some
of your children will end up living there. -
0:22 - 0:24That probably sounds preposterous,
-
0:24 - 0:27so I'm going to share with you
how and when that will happen. -
0:28 - 0:31But first I want to discuss
the obvious question: -
0:31 - 0:32Why the heck should we do this?
-
0:34 - 0:3512 years ago,
-
0:35 - 0:39I gave a TED talk on 10 ways
the world could end suddenly. -
0:39 - 0:43We are incredibly vulnerable
to the whims of our own galaxy. -
0:44 - 0:47A single, large asteroid
could take us out forever. -
0:47 - 0:51To survive we have to reach
beyond the home planet. -
0:51 - 0:53Think what a tragedy it would be
-
0:53 - 0:56if all that humans have accomplished
were suddenly obliterated. -
0:57 - 0:59And there's another reason we should go:
-
0:59 - 1:02exploration is in our DNA.
-
1:02 - 1:05Two million years ago
humans evolved in Africa -
1:05 - 1:10and then slowly but surely
spread out across the entire planet -
1:10 - 1:14by reaching into the wilderness
that was beyond their horizons. -
1:14 - 1:15This stuff is inside us.
-
1:16 - 1:18And they prospered doing that.
-
1:18 - 1:22Some of the greatest advances
in civilization and technology -
1:22 - 1:24came because we explored.
-
1:25 - 1:27Yes, we could do a lot of good
-
1:27 - 1:30with the money it will take
to establish a thriving colony on Mars. -
1:31 - 1:35And yes we should all be taking
far better care of our own home planet. -
1:36 - 1:41And yes, I worry we could screw up Mars
the way we've screwed up Earth. -
1:42 - 1:44But think for a moment,
-
1:44 - 1:49what we had when John F. Kennedy
told us we would put a human on the moon. -
1:49 - 1:52He excited an entire generation to dream.
-
1:53 - 1:56Think how inspired we will be
to see a landing on Mars. -
1:56 - 1:59Perhaps then we will look back at Earth
-
1:59 - 2:02and see that that is
one people instead of many -
2:03 - 2:05and perhaps then
we will look back at Earth, -
2:05 - 2:07as we struggle to survive on Mars,
-
2:08 - 2:10and realize how precious
the home planet is. -
2:12 - 2:16So let me tell you about the extraordinary
adventure we're about to undertake. -
2:17 - 2:18But first,
-
2:18 - 2:21a few fascinating facts
about where we're going. -
2:22 - 2:26This picture actually represents
the true size of Mars compared to Earth. -
2:26 - 2:28Mars is not our sister planet.
-
2:28 - 2:31It's far less than half
the size of the Earth, -
2:31 - 2:33and yet despite the fact
that it's smaller, -
2:33 - 2:36the surface area of Mars
that you can stand on -
2:36 - 2:40is equivalent to the surface area
of the Earth that you can stand on, -
2:40 - 2:42because the Earth
is mostly covered by water. -
2:43 - 2:45The atmosphere on Mars is really thin --
-
2:45 - 2:48100 times thinner than on Earth --
-
2:48 - 2:52and it's not breathable,
it's 96 percent carbon dioxide. -
2:53 - 2:54It's really cold there.
-
2:54 - 2:57The average temperature
is minus 81 degrees, -
2:57 - 3:01although there is
quite a range of temperature. -
3:01 - 3:04A day on Mars is about as long
as a day on Earth, -
3:04 - 3:06plus about 39 minutes.
-
3:06 - 3:11Seasons and years on Mars
are twice as long as they are on Earth. -
3:12 - 3:17And for anybody who wants to strap
on some wings and go flying one day, -
3:17 - 3:19Mars has a lot less gravity than on Earth,
-
3:20 - 3:21and it's the kind of place
-
3:21 - 3:24where you can jump over your car
instead of walk around it. -
3:24 - 3:28Now, as you can see,
Mars isn't exactly Earth-like, -
3:28 - 3:33but it's by far the most livable
other place in our entire solar system. -
3:33 - 3:35Here's the problem.
-
3:35 - 3:37Mars is a long way away,
-
3:37 - 3:42a thousand times farther away
from us than our own moon. -
3:43 - 3:46The Moon is 250,000 miles away
-
3:46 - 3:50and it took Apollo astronauts
three days to get there. -
3:51 - 3:54Mars is 250 million miles away
-
3:54 - 3:56and it will take us
eight months to get there -- -
3:56 - 3:57240 days.
-
3:58 - 4:01And that's only if we launch
on a very specific day, -
4:01 - 4:02at a very specific time,
-
4:02 - 4:04once every two years,
-
4:04 - 4:08when Mars and the Earth
are aligned just so, -
4:08 - 4:12so the distance that the rocket
would have to travel will be the shortest. -
4:13 - 4:18240 days is a long time to spend
trapped with your colleagues in a tin can. -
4:19 - 4:23And meanwhile, our track record
of getting to Mars is lousy. -
4:23 - 4:26We and the Russians,
the Europeans, the Japanese, -
4:26 - 4:27the Chinese and the Indians,
-
4:27 - 4:30have actually sent 44 rockets there,
-
4:30 - 4:33and the vast majority of them
have either missed or crashed. -
4:33 - 4:37Only about a third of the missions
to Mars have been successful. -
4:38 - 4:42And we don't at the moment have
a rocket big enough to get there anyway. -
4:43 - 4:45We once had that rocket, the Saturn V.
-
4:45 - 4:48A couple of Saturn Vs
would have gotten us there. -
4:48 - 4:51It was the most magnificent
machine ever built by humans, -
4:51 - 4:54and it was the rocket
that took us to the Moon. -
4:54 - 4:59But the last Saturn V was used in 1973
to launch the Skylab space station, -
4:59 - 5:02and we decided to do
something called the shuttle -
5:02 - 5:06instead of continuing on to Mars
after we landed on the Moon. -
5:07 - 5:08The biggest rocket we have now
-
5:08 - 5:11is only half big enough
to get us anything to Mars. -
5:12 - 5:15So getting to Mars is not going to be easy
-
5:15 - 5:18and that brings up
a really interesting question ... -
5:20 - 5:24how soon will the first humans
actually land here? -
5:25 - 5:29Now, some pundits think
if we got there by 2050, -
5:30 - 5:31that'd be a pretty good achievement.
-
5:32 - 5:38These days, NASA seems to be saying
that it can get humans to Mars by 2040. -
5:38 - 5:39Maybe they can.
-
5:41 - 5:46I believe that they can get
human beings into Mars orbit by 2035. -
5:46 - 5:47But frankly,
-
5:47 - 5:52I don't think they're going to bother
in 2035 to send a rocket to Mars, -
5:52 - 5:54because we will already be there.
-
5:54 - 5:57We're going to land on Mars in 2027.
-
5:58 - 5:59And the reason is
-
6:00 - 6:02this man is determined
to make that happen. -
6:02 - 6:07His name is Elon Musk,
he's the CEO of Tesla Motors and SpaceX. -
6:08 - 6:13Now, he actually told me
that we would land on Mars by 2025, -
6:13 - 6:16but Elon Musk is more
optimistic than I am -- -
6:16 - 6:17and that's going a ways --
-
6:17 - 6:20so I'm giving him
a couple of years of slack. -
6:21 - 6:22Still ...
-
6:22 - 6:24you've got to ask yourself,
-
6:24 - 6:28can this guy really do this
by 2025 or 2027? -
6:29 - 6:32Well, let's put a decade with Elon Musk
into a little perspective. -
6:33 - 6:35Where was this 10 years ago?
-
6:35 - 6:38That's the Tesla electric automobile.
-
6:38 - 6:41In 2005, a lot of people
in the automobile industry were saying, -
6:41 - 6:45we would not have
a decent electric car for 50 years. -
6:48 - 6:50And where was that?
-
6:50 - 6:53That is SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket,
-
6:53 - 6:58lifting six tons of supplies
to the International Space Station. -
6:58 - 6:5910 years ago,
-
6:59 - 7:04SpaceX had not launched anything,
or fired a rocket to anywhere. -
7:05 - 7:07So I think it's a pretty good bet
-
7:07 - 7:10that the person who is revolutionizing
the automobile industry -
7:10 - 7:11in less than 10 years
-
7:11 - 7:17and the person who created an entire
rocket company in less than 10 years -
7:17 - 7:20will get us to Mars by 2027.
-
7:21 - 7:24Now, you need to know this:
-
7:24 - 7:27governments and robots
no longer control this game. -
7:28 - 7:30Private companies are leaping into space
-
7:30 - 7:33and they will be happy
to take you to Mars. -
7:34 - 7:37And that raises a really big question.
-
7:37 - 7:39Can we actually live there?
-
7:41 - 7:45Now, NASA may not be able
to get us there until 2040, -
7:45 - 7:47or we may get there
a long time before NASA, -
7:47 - 7:52but NASA has taken a huge responsibility
in figuring out how we can live on Mars. -
7:53 - 7:55Let's look at the problem this way.
-
7:55 - 7:57Here's what you need to live on Earth:
-
7:57 - 8:00food, water, shelter and clothing.
-
8:00 - 8:03And here's what you need to live on Mars:
-
8:03 - 8:05all of the above, plus oxygen.
-
8:06 - 8:10So let's look at the most
important thing on this list first. -
8:10 - 8:13Water is the basis
of all life as we know it, -
8:13 - 8:18and it's far too heavy for us to carry
water from the Earth to Mars to live, -
8:18 - 8:23so we have to find water
if our life is going to succeed on Mars. -
8:24 - 8:26And if you look at Mars,
it looks really dry, -
8:26 - 8:29it looks like the entire
planet is a desert. -
8:29 - 8:31But it turns out that it's not.
-
8:31 - 8:36The soil alone on Mars
contains up to 60 percent water. -
8:36 - 8:41And a number of orbiters that we still
have flying around Mars have shown us -- -
8:41 - 8:44and by the way,
that's a real photograph -- -
8:44 - 8:48that lots of craters on Mars
have a sheet of water ice in them. -
8:48 - 8:50It's not a bad place to start a colony.
-
8:52 - 8:56Now, here's a view of a little dig
the Phoenix Lander did in 2008, -
8:56 - 9:00showing that just below
the surface of the soil is ice -- -
9:00 - 9:02that white stuff is ice.
-
9:02 - 9:03In the second picture,
-
9:03 - 9:05which is four days later
than the first picture, -
9:05 - 9:07you can see that
some of it is evaporating. -
9:08 - 9:09Orbiters also tell us
-
9:09 - 9:13that there are huge amounts
of underground water on Mars -
9:13 - 9:15as well as glaciers.
-
9:15 - 9:19In fact, if only the water ice
at the poles on Mars melted, -
9:19 - 9:22most of the planet
would be under 30 feet of water. -
9:23 - 9:25So there's plenty of water there,
-
9:25 - 9:28but most of it's ice,
most of it's underground, -
9:28 - 9:31it takes a lot of energy to get it
and a lot of human labor. -
9:32 - 9:35This is a device cooked up
at the University of Washington -
9:35 - 9:36back in 1998.
-
9:37 - 9:40It's basically a low-tech dehumidifier.
-
9:40 - 9:44And it turns out the Mars atmosphere
is often 100 percent humid. -
9:44 - 9:48So this device can extract
all the water that humans will need -
9:48 - 9:51simply from the atmosphere on Mars.
-
9:52 - 9:55Next we have to worry
about what we will breathe. -
9:55 - 9:57Frankly, I was really shocked
-
9:57 - 10:00to find out that NASA
has this problem worked out. -
10:00 - 10:03This is a scientist at MIT
named Michael Hecht. -
10:04 - 10:07And he's developed this machine, Moxie.
-
10:07 - 10:08I love this thing.
-
10:08 - 10:10It's a reverse fuel cell, essentially,
-
10:10 - 10:14that sucks in the Martian atmosphere
and pumps out oxygen. -
10:14 - 10:16And you have to remember that CO2 --
-
10:16 - 10:20carbon dioxide, which is
96 percent of Mars' atmosphere -- -
10:20 - 10:23CO2 is basically 78 percent oxygen.
-
10:24 - 10:28Now, the next big rover
that NASA sends to Mars in 2020 -
10:28 - 10:30is going to have one
of these devices aboard, -
10:31 - 10:33and it will be able
to produce enough oxygen -
10:33 - 10:36to keep one person alive indefinitely.
-
10:36 - 10:38But the secret to this --
-
10:38 - 10:40and that's just for testing --
-
10:40 - 10:43the secret to this is that this thing
was designed from the get-go -
10:43 - 10:46to be scalable by a factor of 100.
-
10:47 - 10:49Next, what will we eat?
-
10:49 - 10:52Well, we'll use hydroponics to grow food,
-
10:52 - 10:54but we're not going to be able to grow
-
10:54 - 10:56more than 15 to 20 percent
of our food there, -
10:56 - 11:00at least not until water is running
on the surface of Mars -
11:00 - 11:04and we actually have the probability
and the capability of planting crops. -
11:05 - 11:06In the meantime,
-
11:06 - 11:08most of our food will arrive from Earth,
-
11:08 - 11:09and it will be dried.
-
11:10 - 11:13And then we need some shelter.
-
11:13 - 11:17At first we can use inflatable,
pressurized buildings -
11:17 - 11:19as well as the landers themselves.
-
11:19 - 11:22But this really only works
during the daytime. -
11:22 - 11:27There is too much solar radiation
and too much radiation from cosmic rays. -
11:27 - 11:29So we really have to go underground.
-
11:29 - 11:32Now, it turns out that the soil on Mars,
-
11:32 - 11:35by and large,
is perfect for making bricks. -
11:35 - 11:37And NASA has figured this one out, too.
-
11:37 - 11:40They're going to throw
some polymer plastic into the bricks, -
11:40 - 11:42shove them in a microwave oven,
-
11:42 - 11:45and then you will be able to build
buildings with really thick walls. -
11:45 - 11:51Or we may choose to live underground
in caves or in lava tubes, -
11:51 - 11:53of which there are plenty.
-
11:54 - 11:56And finally there's clothing.
-
11:56 - 11:59On Earth we have miles
of atmosphere piled up on us, -
11:59 - 12:03which creates 15 pounds of pressure
on our bodies at all times, -
12:03 - 12:05and we're constantly
pushing out against that. -
12:05 - 12:08On Mars there's hardly
any atmospheric pressure. -
12:09 - 12:11So Dava Newman,
-
12:11 - 12:12a scientist at MIT,
-
12:12 - 12:15has created this sleek space suit.
-
12:15 - 12:17It will keep us together,
-
12:17 - 12:19block radiation and keep us warm.
-
12:20 - 12:22So let's think about this for a minute.
-
12:22 - 12:25Food, shelter, clothing, water, oxygen ...
-
12:26 - 12:27we can do this.
-
12:28 - 12:29We really can.
-
12:30 - 12:33But it's still a little complicated
and a little difficult. -
12:34 - 12:37So that leads to the next big --
-
12:37 - 12:38really big step --
-
12:38 - 12:40in living the good life on Mars.
-
12:40 - 12:42And that's terraforming the planet:
-
12:43 - 12:44making it more like Earth,
-
12:44 - 12:47reengineering an entire planet.
-
12:48 - 12:50That sounds like a lot of hubris,
-
12:50 - 12:51but the truth is
-
12:51 - 12:55that the technology to do everything
I'm about to tell you already exists. -
12:56 - 12:58First we've got to warm it up.
-
12:58 - 13:03Mars is incredibly cold
because it has a very thin atmosphere. -
13:03 - 13:07The answer lies here, at the south pole
and at the north pole of Mars, -
13:07 - 13:09both of which are covered
-
13:09 - 13:12with an incredible amount
of frozen carbon dioxide -- -
13:12 - 13:13dry ice.
-
13:13 - 13:15If we heat it up,
-
13:15 - 13:17it sublimes directly into the atmosphere
-
13:17 - 13:20and thickens the atmosphere
the same way it does on Earth. -
13:20 - 13:21And as we know,
-
13:21 - 13:25CO2 is an incredibly
potent greenhouse gas. -
13:26 - 13:32Now, my favorite way of doing this
is to erect a very, very large solar sail -
13:32 - 13:33and focus it --
-
13:33 - 13:35it essentially serves as a mirror --
-
13:35 - 13:37and focus it on the south pole
of Mars at first. -
13:37 - 13:41As the planet spins, it will heat up
all that dry ice, sublime it, -
13:41 - 13:43and it will go into the atmosphere.
-
13:44 - 13:45It actually won't take long
-
13:45 - 13:47for the temperature
on Mars to start rising, -
13:47 - 13:50probably less than 20 years.
-
13:51 - 13:52Right now,
-
13:52 - 13:54on a perfect day at the equator,
-
13:54 - 13:56in the middle of summer on Mars,
-
13:56 - 13:58temperatures can
actually reach 70 degrees, -
13:58 - 14:01but then they go down
to minus 100 at night. -
14:01 - 14:02(Laughter)
-
14:02 - 14:06What we're shooting for
is a runaway greenhouse effect: -
14:07 - 14:11enough temperature rise
to see a lot of that ice on Mars -- -
14:11 - 14:13especially the ice in the ground -- melt.
-
14:14 - 14:15Then we get some real magic.
-
14:16 - 14:19As the atmosphere gets thicker,
everything gets better. -
14:19 - 14:22We get more protection from radiation,
-
14:22 - 14:25more atmosphere makes us warmer,
makes the planet warmer, -
14:25 - 14:27so we get running water
-
14:27 - 14:28and that makes crops possible.
-
14:29 - 14:34Then more water vapor goes into the air,
forming yet another potent greenhouse gas. -
14:34 - 14:37It will rain and it will snow on Mars.
-
14:38 - 14:41And a thicker atmosphere
will create enough pressure -
14:41 - 14:44so that we can
throw away those space suits. -
14:44 - 14:47We only need about five pounds
of pressure to survive. -
14:47 - 14:53Eventually, Mars will be made
to feel a lot like British Columbia. -
14:54 - 14:56We'll still be left
with the complicated problem -
14:56 - 14:58of making the atmosphere breathable,
-
14:58 - 15:01and frankly that could take
1,000 years to accomplish. -
15:02 - 15:06But humans are amazingly smart
and incredibly adaptable. -
15:06 - 15:11There is no telling what our future
technology will be able to accomplish -
15:11 - 15:14and no telling what we can do
with our own bodies. -
15:14 - 15:16In biology right now,
-
15:16 - 15:21we are on the very verge of being
able to control our own genetics, -
15:22 - 15:24what the genes
in our own bodies are doing, -
15:24 - 15:26and certainly,
-
15:26 - 15:28eventually, our own evolution.
-
15:29 - 15:33We could end up with a species
of human being on Earth -
15:33 - 15:37that is slightly different
from the species of human beings on Mars. -
15:38 - 15:41But what would you do there?
How would you live? -
15:41 - 15:43It's going to be
the same as it is on Earth. -
15:44 - 15:46Somebody's going to start a restaurant,
-
15:46 - 15:48somebody's going to build an iron foundry.
-
15:49 - 15:51Someone will make
documentary movies of Mars -
15:51 - 15:52and sell them on Earth.
-
15:55 - 15:58Some idiot will start a reality TV show.
-
15:58 - 15:59(Laughter)
-
16:00 - 16:02There will be software companies,
-
16:02 - 16:04there will be hotels, there will be bars.
-
16:06 - 16:07This much is certain:
-
16:07 - 16:11it will be the most disruptive
event in our lifetimes, -
16:11 - 16:14and I think it will be the most inspiring.
-
16:15 - 16:19Ask any 10-year-old girl
if she wants to go to Mars. -
16:19 - 16:23Children who are now in elementary school
are going to choose to live there. -
16:24 - 16:27Remember when we landed
humans on the Moon? -
16:27 - 16:30When that happened,
people looked at each other and said, -
16:30 - 16:33"If we can do this, we can do anything."
-
16:34 - 16:38What are they going to think
when we actually form a colony on Mars? -
16:39 - 16:40Most importantly,
-
16:40 - 16:44it will make us a spacefaring species.
-
16:44 - 16:49And that means humans will survive
no matter what happens on Earth. -
16:49 - 16:52We will never be the last of our kind.
-
16:52 - 16:54Thank you.
-
16:54 - 16:57(Applause)
- Title:
- Your kids might live on Mars. Here's how they'll survive
- Speaker:
- Stephen Petranek
- Description:
-
It sounds like science fiction, but journalist Stephen Petranek considers it fact: within 20 years, humans will live on Mars. In this provocative talk, Petranek makes the case that humans will become a spacefaring species and describes in fascinating detail how we'll make Mars our next home. "Humans will survive no matter what happens on Earth," Petranek says. "We will never be the last of our kind."
- Video Language:
- English
- Team:
- closed TED
- Project:
- TEDTalks
- Duration:
- 17:14
Brian Greene edited English subtitles for Your kids might live on Mars. Here's how they'll survive | ||
Brian Greene edited English subtitles for Your kids might live on Mars. Here's how they'll survive | ||
Brian Greene edited English subtitles for Your kids might live on Mars. Here's how they'll survive | ||
Brian Greene edited English subtitles for Your kids might live on Mars. Here's how they'll survive | ||
Brian Greene approved English subtitles for Your kids might live on Mars. Here's how they'll survive | ||
Brian Greene edited English subtitles for Your kids might live on Mars. Here's how they'll survive | ||
Brian Greene edited English subtitles for Your kids might live on Mars. Here's how they'll survive | ||
Brian Greene edited English subtitles for Your kids might live on Mars. Here's how they'll survive |