Want to innovate? Become a "now-ist"
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0:01 - 0:03On March 10, 2011,
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0:03 - 0:06I was in Cambridge at the MIT Media Lab
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0:06 - 0:10meeting with faculty, students and staff,
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0:10 - 0:11and we were trying to figure out whether
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0:11 - 0:14I should be the next director.
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0:14 - 0:16That night, at midnight,
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0:16 - 0:18a magnitude 9 earthquake
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0:18 - 0:21hit off of the Pacific coast of Japan.
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0:21 - 0:23My wife and family were in Japan,
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0:23 - 0:26and as the news started to come in,
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0:26 - 0:28I was panicking.
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0:28 - 0:29I was looking at the news streams
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0:29 - 0:32and listening to the press conferences
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0:32 - 0:34of the government officials
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0:34 - 0:36and the Tokyo Power Company,
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0:36 - 0:38and hearing about this explosion
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0:38 - 0:40at the nuclear reactors
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0:40 - 0:41and this cloud of fallout
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0:41 - 0:43that was headed towards our house
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0:43 - 0:46which was only about 200 kilometers away.
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0:46 - 0:49And the people on TV weren't telling us
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0:49 - 0:51anything that we wanted to hear.
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0:51 - 0:53I wanted to know what was going on with the reactor,
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0:53 - 0:54what was going on with the radiation,
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0:54 - 0:57whether my family was in danger.
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0:57 - 1:00So I did what instinctively felt like the right thing,
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1:00 - 1:01which was to go onto the Internet
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1:01 - 1:03and try to figure out
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1:03 - 1:05if I could take matters into my own hands.
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1:05 - 1:07On the Net, I found there were a lot of other people
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1:07 - 1:09like me trying to figure out what was going on,
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1:09 - 1:11and together we sort of loosely formed a group
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1:11 - 1:14and we called it Safecast,
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1:14 - 1:15and we decided we were going to try
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1:15 - 1:17to measure the radiation
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1:17 - 1:18and get the data out to everybody else,
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1:18 - 1:20because it was clear that the government
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1:20 - 1:23wasn't going to be doing this for us.
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1:23 - 1:24Three years later,
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1:24 - 1:28we have 16 million data points,
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1:28 - 1:30we have designed our own Geiger counters
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1:30 - 1:32that you can download the designs
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1:32 - 1:33and plug it into the network.
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1:33 - 1:35We have an app that shows you
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1:35 - 1:38most of the radiation in Japan
and other parts of the world. -
1:38 - 1:40We are arguably one of the most successful
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1:40 - 1:42citizen science projects in the world,
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1:42 - 1:44and we have created
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1:44 - 1:48the largest open dataset of radiation measurements.
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1:48 - 1:50And the interesting thing here
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1:50 - 1:55is how did — (Applause) — Thank you.
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1:55 - 1:57How did a bunch of amateurs
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1:57 - 1:59who really didn't know what we were doing
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1:59 - 2:01somehow come together
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2:01 - 2:04and do what NGOs and the government
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2:04 - 2:07were completely incapable of doing?
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2:07 - 2:09And I would suggest that this has something to do
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2:09 - 2:11with the Internet. It's not a fluke.
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2:11 - 2:14It wasn't luck, and it wasn't because it was us.
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2:14 - 2:15It helped that it was an event
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2:15 - 2:17that pulled everybody together,
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2:17 - 2:19but it was a new way of doing things
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2:19 - 2:21that was enabled by the Internet
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2:21 - 2:22and a lot of the other things that were going on,
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2:22 - 2:24and I want to talk a little bit about
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2:24 - 2:27what those new principles are.
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2:27 - 2:32So remember before the Internet? (Laughter)
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2:32 - 2:34I call this B.I. Okay?
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2:34 - 2:37So, in B.I., life was simple.
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2:37 - 2:40Things were Euclidian, Newtonian,
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2:40 - 2:42somewhat predictable.
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2:42 - 2:44People actually tried to predict the future,
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2:44 - 2:46even the economists.
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2:46 - 2:49And then the Internet happened,
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2:49 - 2:51and the world became extremely complex,
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2:51 - 2:54extremely low-cost, extremely fast,
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2:54 - 2:56and those Newtonian laws
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2:56 - 2:58that we so dearly cherished
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2:58 - 3:00turned out to be just local ordinances,
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3:00 - 3:01and what we found was that in this
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3:01 - 3:04completely unpredictable world
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3:04 - 3:06that most of the people who were surviving
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3:06 - 3:09were working with sort of a different set of principles,
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3:09 - 3:12and I want to talk a little bit about that.
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3:12 - 3:13Before the Internet, if you remember,
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3:13 - 3:15when we tried to create services,
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3:15 - 3:16what you would do is you'd create
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3:16 - 3:19the hardware layer and the
network layer and the software -
3:19 - 3:21and it would cost millions of dollars
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3:21 - 3:23to do anything that was substantial.
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3:23 - 3:25So when it costs millions of dollars
to do something substantial, -
3:25 - 3:28what you would do is you'd get an MBA
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3:28 - 3:29who would write a plan
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3:29 - 3:30and get the money
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3:30 - 3:32from V.C.s or big companies,
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3:32 - 3:34and then you'd hire the designers and the engineers,
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3:34 - 3:35and they'd build the thing.
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3:35 - 3:39This is the Before Internet, B.I., innovation model.
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3:39 - 3:42What happened after the Internet was
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3:42 - 3:43the cost of innovation went down so much
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3:43 - 3:46because the cost of collaboration,
the cost of distribution, -
3:46 - 3:49the cost of communication, and Moore's Law
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3:49 - 3:51made it so that the cost of trying a new thing
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3:51 - 3:53became nearly zero,
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3:53 - 3:55and so you would have Google, Facebook, Yahoo,
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3:55 - 3:57students that didn't have permission —
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3:57 - 3:58permissionless innovation —
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3:58 - 4:00didn't have permission, didn't have PowerPoints,
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4:00 - 4:02they just built the thing,
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4:02 - 4:03then they raised the money,
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4:03 - 4:05and then they sort of figured out a business plan
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4:05 - 4:08and maybe later on they hired some MBAs.
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4:08 - 4:10So the Internet caused innovation,
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4:10 - 4:11at least in software and services,
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4:11 - 4:14to go from an MBA-driven innovation model
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4:14 - 4:18to a designer-engineer-driven innovation model,
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4:18 - 4:20and it pushed innovation to the edges,
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4:20 - 4:22to the dorm rooms, to the startups,
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4:22 - 4:23away from the large institutions,
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4:23 - 4:26the stodgy old institutions that had the power
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4:26 - 4:27and the money and the authority.
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4:27 - 4:30And we all know this. We all know
this happened on the Internet. -
4:30 - 4:33It turns out it's happening in other things, too.
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4:33 - 4:36Let me give you some examples.
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4:36 - 4:39So at the Media Lab, we don't just do hardware.
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4:39 - 4:40We do all kinds of things.
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4:40 - 4:42We do biology, we do hardware,
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4:42 - 4:45and Nicholas Negroponte
famously said, "Demo or die," -
4:45 - 4:47as opposed to "Publish or perish,"
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4:47 - 4:49which was the traditional academic way of thinking.
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4:49 - 4:53And he often said, the demo only has to work once,
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4:53 - 4:56because the primary mode of us impacting the world
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4:56 - 4:57was through large companies
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4:57 - 4:59being inspired by us
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4:59 - 5:02and creating products like
the Kindle or Lego Mindstorms. -
5:02 - 5:04But today, with the ability
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5:04 - 5:06to deploy things into the real world at such low cost,
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5:06 - 5:09I'm changing the motto now,
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5:09 - 5:10and this is the official public statement.
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5:10 - 5:13I'm officially saying, "Deploy or die."
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5:13 - 5:15You have to get the stuff into the real world
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5:15 - 5:17for it to really count,
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5:17 - 5:18and sometimes it will be large companies,
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5:18 - 5:20and Nicholas can talk about satellites.
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5:20 - 5:22(Applause)
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5:22 - 5:23Thank you.
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5:23 - 5:25But we should be getting out there ourselves
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5:25 - 5:28and not depending on large
institutions to do it for us. -
5:28 - 5:31So last year, we sent a bunch
of students to Shenzhen, -
5:31 - 5:32and they sat on the factory floors
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5:32 - 5:35with the innovators in Shenzhen, and it was amazing.
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5:35 - 5:36What was happening there
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5:36 - 5:38was you would have these manufacturing devices,
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5:38 - 5:41and they weren't making prototypes or PowerPoints.
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5:41 - 5:43They were fiddling with the manufacturing equipment
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5:43 - 5:46and innovating right on the
manufacturing equipment. -
5:46 - 5:48The factory was in the designer,
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5:48 - 5:50and the designer was literally in the factory.
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5:50 - 5:52And so what you would do is,
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5:52 - 5:53you'd go down to the stalls
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5:53 - 5:56and you would see these cell phones.
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5:56 - 5:58So instead of starting little websites
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5:58 - 6:00like the kids in Palo Alto do,
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6:00 - 6:02the kids in Shenzhen make new cell phones.
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6:02 - 6:05They make new cell phones like kids in Palo Alto
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6:05 - 6:06make websites,
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6:06 - 6:08and so there's a rainforest
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6:08 - 6:10of innovation going on in the cell phone.
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6:10 - 6:12What they do is, they make a cell phone,
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6:12 - 6:14go down to the stall, they sell some,
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6:14 - 6:16they look at the other kids' stuff, go up,
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6:16 - 6:19make a couple thousand more, go down.
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6:19 - 6:21Doesn't this sound like a software thing?
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6:21 - 6:22It sounds like agile software development,
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6:22 - 6:25A/B testing and iteration,
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6:25 - 6:27and what we thought you could only do with software
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6:27 - 6:30kids in Shenzhen are doing this in hardware.
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6:30 - 6:31My next fellow, I hope, is going to be
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6:31 - 6:33one of these innovators from Shenzhen.
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6:33 - 6:34And so what you see is
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6:34 - 6:36that is pushing innovation to the edges.
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6:36 - 6:38We talk about 3D printers and stuff like that,
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6:38 - 6:40and that's great, but this is Limor.
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6:40 - 6:43She is one of our favorite graduates,
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6:43 - 6:45and she is standing in front of a Samsung
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6:45 - 6:47Techwin Pick and Place Machine.
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6:47 - 6:50This thing can put 23,000 components per hour
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6:50 - 6:52onto an electronics board.
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6:52 - 6:54This is a factory in a box.
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6:54 - 6:57So what used to take a factory full of workers
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6:57 - 6:58working by hand
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6:58 - 7:00in this little box in New York,
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7:00 - 7:01she's able to have effectively —
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7:01 - 7:02She doesn't actually have to go to Shenzhen
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7:02 - 7:03to do this manufacturing.
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7:03 - 7:06She can buy this box and she can manufacture it.
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7:06 - 7:08So manufacturing, the cost of innovation,
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7:08 - 7:11the cost of prototyping, distribution,
manufacturing, hardware, -
7:11 - 7:12is getting so low
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7:12 - 7:14that innovation is being pushed to the edges
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7:14 - 7:17and students and startups are being able to build it.
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7:17 - 7:19This is a recent thing, but this will happen
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7:19 - 7:20and this will change
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7:20 - 7:23just like it did with software.
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7:23 - 7:26Sorona is a DuPont process
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7:26 - 7:29that uses a genetically engineered microbe
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7:29 - 7:33to turn corn sugar into polyester.
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7:33 - 7:35It's 30 percent more efficient
than the fossil fuel method, -
7:35 - 7:39and it's much better for the environment.
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7:39 - 7:40Genetic engineering and bioengineering
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7:40 - 7:42are creating a whole bunch
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7:42 - 7:44of great new opportunities
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7:44 - 7:46for chemistry, for computation, for memory.
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7:46 - 7:49We will probably be doing a lot,
obviously doing health things, -
7:49 - 7:51but we will probably be growing chairs
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7:51 - 7:52and buildings soon.
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7:52 - 7:56The problem is, Sorona costs
about 400 million dollars -
7:56 - 7:57and took seven years to build.
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7:57 - 8:00It kind of reminds you of the old mainframe days.
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8:00 - 8:03The thing is, the cost of innovation
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8:03 - 8:04in bioengineering is also going down.
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8:04 - 8:06This is desktop gene sequencer.
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8:06 - 8:10It used to cost millions and millions
of dollars to sequence genes. -
8:10 - 8:12Now you can do it on a desktop like this,
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8:12 - 8:14and kids can do this in dorm rooms.
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8:14 - 8:16This is Gen9 gene assembler,
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8:16 - 8:18and so right now when you try to print a gene,
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8:18 - 8:20what you do is somebody in a factory
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8:20 - 8:22with pipettes puts the thing together by hand,
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8:22 - 8:24you have one error per 100 base pairs,
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8:24 - 8:27and it takes a long time and costs a lot of money.
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8:27 - 8:28This new device
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8:28 - 8:30assembles genes on a chip,
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8:30 - 8:32and instead of one error per 100 base pairs,
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8:32 - 8:34it's one error per 10,000 base pairs.
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8:34 - 8:37In this lab, we will have the world's capacity
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8:37 - 8:39of gene printing within a year,
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8:39 - 8:41200 million base pairs a year.
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8:41 - 8:44This is kind of like when we went
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8:44 - 8:46from transistor radios wrapped by hand
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8:46 - 8:47to the Pentium.
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8:47 - 8:50This is going to become the
Pentium of bioengineering, -
8:50 - 8:52pushing bioengineering into the hands
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8:52 - 8:54of dorm rooms and startup companies.
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8:54 - 8:57So it's happening in software and in hardware
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8:57 - 8:58and bioengineering,
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8:58 - 9:01and so this is a fundamental new
way of thinking about innovation. -
9:01 - 9:04It's a bottom-up innovation, it's democratic,
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9:04 - 9:06it's chaotic, it's hard to control.
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9:06 - 9:09It's not bad, but it's very different,
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9:09 - 9:11and I think that the traditional rules that we have
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9:11 - 9:13for institutions don't work anymore,
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9:13 - 9:14and most of us here
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9:14 - 9:17operate with a different set of principles.
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9:17 - 9:20One of my favorite principles is the power of pull,
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9:20 - 9:23which is the idea of pulling resources
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9:23 - 9:24from the network as you need them
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9:24 - 9:26rather than stocking them in the center
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9:26 - 9:28and controlling everything.
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9:28 - 9:31So in the case of the Safecast story,
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9:31 - 9:32I didn't know anything when
the earthquake happened, -
9:32 - 9:34but I was able to find Sean
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9:34 - 9:36who was the hackerspace community organizer,
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9:36 - 9:38and Peter, the analog hardware hacker
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9:38 - 9:40who made our first Geiger counter,
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9:40 - 9:42and Dan, who built the Three Mile Island
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9:42 - 9:45monitoring system after the
Three Mile Island meltdown. -
9:45 - 9:47And these people I wouldn't have been able to find
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9:47 - 9:50beforehand and probably were better
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9:50 - 9:53that I found them just in time from the network.
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9:53 - 9:55I'm a three-time college dropout,
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9:55 - 9:57so learning over education
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9:57 - 9:58is very near and dear to my heart,
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9:58 - 10:00but to me, education is what people do to you
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10:00 - 10:03and learning is what you do to yourself.
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10:03 - 10:07(Applause)
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10:07 - 10:09And it feels like, and I'm biased,
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10:09 - 10:12it feels like they're trying to make you memorize
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10:12 - 10:15the whole encyclopedia before
they let you go out and play, -
10:15 - 10:19and to me, I've got Wikipedia on my cell phone,
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10:19 - 10:21and it feels like they assume
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10:21 - 10:22you're going to be on top of some mountain
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10:22 - 10:25all by yourself with a number 2 pencil
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10:25 - 10:26trying to figure out what to do
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10:26 - 10:28when in fact you're always going to be connected,
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10:28 - 10:30you're always going to have friends,
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10:30 - 10:32and you can pull Wikipedia
up whenever you need it, -
10:32 - 10:36and what you need to learn is how to learn.
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10:36 - 10:38In the case of Safecast, a bunch of amateurs
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10:38 - 10:40when we started three years ago,
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10:40 - 10:42I would argue that we probably as a group
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10:42 - 10:45know more than any other organization
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10:45 - 10:48about how to collect data and publish data
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10:48 - 10:51and do citizen science.
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10:51 - 10:52Compass over maps.
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10:52 - 10:55So this one, the idea is that the cost of writing a plan
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10:55 - 10:59or mapping something is getting so expensive
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10:59 - 11:02and it's not very accurate or useful.
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11:02 - 11:05So in the Safecast story, we
knew we needed to collect data, -
11:05 - 11:07we knew we wanted to publish the data,
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11:07 - 11:10and instead of trying to come up with the exact plan,
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11:10 - 11:13we first said, oh, let's get Geiger counters.
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11:13 - 11:14Oh, they've run out.
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11:14 - 11:16Let's build them. There aren't enough sensors.
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11:16 - 11:19Okay, then we can make a mobile Geiger counter.
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11:19 - 11:21We can drive around. We can get volunteers.
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11:21 - 11:23We don't have enough money. Let's Kickstarter it.
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11:23 - 11:25We could not have planned this whole thing,
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11:25 - 11:26but by having a very strong compass,
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11:26 - 11:28we eventually got to where we were going,
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11:28 - 11:30and to me it's very similar to
agile software development, -
11:30 - 11:33but this idea of compasses is very important.
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11:33 - 11:35So I think the good news is
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11:35 - 11:39that even though the world is extremely complex,
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11:39 - 11:41what you need to do is very simple.
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11:41 - 11:44I think it's about stopping this notion
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11:44 - 11:46that you need to plan everything,
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11:46 - 11:47you need to stock everything,
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11:47 - 11:48and you need to be so prepared,
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11:48 - 11:51and focus on being connected,
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11:51 - 11:53always learning,
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11:53 - 11:55fully aware,
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11:55 - 11:57and super present.
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11:57 - 12:00So I don't like the word "futurist."
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12:00 - 12:05I think we should be now-ists,
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12:05 - 12:07like we are right now.
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12:07 - 12:09Thank you.
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12:09 - 12:13(Applause)
- Title:
- Want to innovate? Become a "now-ist"
- Speaker:
- Joi Ito
- Description:
-
“Remember before the internet?” asks Joi Ito. “Remember when people used to try to predict the future?” In this engaging talk, the head of the MIT Media Lab skips the future predictions and instead shares a new approach to creating in the moment: building quickly and improving constantly, without waiting for permission or for proof that you have the right idea. This kind of bottom-up innovation is seen in the most fascinating, futuristic projects emerging today, and it starts, he says, with being open and alert to what’s going on around you right now. Don’t be a futurist, he suggests: be a now-ist.
- Video Language:
- English
- Team:
- closed TED
- Project:
- TEDTalks
- Duration:
- 12:31
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Madeleine Aronson edited English subtitles for Want to innovate? Become a "now-ist" | ||
Madeleine Aronson edited English subtitles for Want to innovate? Become a "now-ist" |