WEBVTT

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On March 10, 2011,

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I was in Cambridge at the MIT Media Lab

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meeting with faculty, students and staff,

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and we were trying to figure out whether

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I should be the next director.

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That night, at midnight,

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a magnitude 9 earthquake

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hit off of the Pacific coast of Japan.

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My wife and family were in Japan,

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and as the news started to come in,

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I was panicking.

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I was looking at the news streams

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and listening to the press conferences

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of the government officials

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and the Tokyo Power Company,

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and hearing about this explosion

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at the nuclear reactors

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and this cloud of fallout

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that was headed towards our house

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which was only about 200 kilometers away.

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And the people on TV weren't telling us

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anything that we wanted to hear.

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I wanted to know what was going on with the reactor,

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what was going on with the radiation,

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whether my family was in danger.

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So I did what instinctively felt like the right thing,

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which was to go onto the Internet

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and try to figure out

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if I could take matters into my own hands.

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On the Net, I found there were a lot of other people

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like me trying to figure out what was going on,

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and together we sort of loosely formed a group

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and we called it Safecast,

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and we decided we were going to try

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to measure the radiation

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and get the data out to everybody else,

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because it was clear that the government

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wasn't going to be doing this for us.

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Three years later,

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we have 16 million data points,

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we have designed our own Geiger counters

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that you can download the designs

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and plug it into the network.

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We have an app that shows you

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most of the radiation in Japan
and other parts of the world.

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We are arguably one of the most successful

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citizen science projects in the world,

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and we have created

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the largest open dataset of radiation measurements.

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And the interesting thing here

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is how did — (Applause) — Thank you.

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How did a bunch of amateurs

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who really didn't know what we were doing

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somehow come together

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and do what NGOs and the government

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were completely incapable of doing?

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And I would suggest that this has something to do

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with the Internet. It's not a fluke.

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It wasn't luck, and it wasn't because it was us.

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It helped that it was an event

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that pulled everybody together,

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but it was a new way of doing things

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that was enabled by the Internet

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and a lot of the other things that were going on,

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and I want to talk a little bit about

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what those new principles are.

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So remember before the Internet? (Laughter)

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I call this B.I. Okay?

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So, in B.I., life was simple.

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Things were Euclidian, Newtonian,

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somewhat predictable.

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People actually tried to predict the future,

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even the economists.

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And then the Internet happened,

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and the world became extremely complex,

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extremely low-cost, extremely fast,

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and those Newtonian laws

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that we so dearly cherished

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turned out to be just local ordinances,

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and what we found was that in this

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completely unpredictable world

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that most of the people who were surviving

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were working with sort of a different set of principles,

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and I want to talk a little bit about that.

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Before the Internet, if you remember,

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when we tried to create services,

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what you would do is you'd create

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the hardware layer and the
network layer and the software

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and it would cost millions of dollars

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to do anything that was substantial.

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So when it costs millions of dollars
to do something substantial,

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what you would do is you'd get an MBA

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who would write a plan

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and get the money

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from V.C.s or big companies,

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and then you'd hire the designers and the engineers,

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and they'd build the thing.

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This is the Before Internet, B.I., innovation model.

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What happened after the Internet was

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the cost of innovation went down so much

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because the cost of collaboration,
the cost of distribution,

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the cost of communication, and Moore's Law

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made it so that the cost of trying a new thing

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became nearly zero,

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and so you would have Google, Facebook, Yahoo,

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students that didn't have permission —

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permissionless innovation —

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didn't have permission, didn't have PowerPoints,

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they just built the thing,

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then they raised the money,

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and then they sort of figured out a business plan

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and maybe later on they hired some MBAs.

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So the Internet caused innovation,

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at least in software and services,

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to go from an MBA-driven innovation model

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to a designer-engineer-driven innovation model,

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and it pushed innovation to the edges,

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to the dorm rooms, to the startups,

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away from the large institutions,

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the stodgy old institutions that had the power

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and the money and the authority.

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And we all know this. We all know
this happened on the Internet.

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It turns out it's happening in other things, too.

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Let me give you some examples.

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So at the Media Lab, we don't just do hardware.

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We do all kinds of things.

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We do biology, we do hardware,

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and Nicholas Negroponte
famously said, "Demo or die,"

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as opposed to "Publish or perish,"

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which was the traditional academic way of thinking.

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And he often said, the demo only has to work once,

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because the primary mode of us impacting the world

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was through large companies

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being inspired by us

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and creating products like
the Kindle or Lego Mindstorms.

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But today, with the ability

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to deploy things into the real world at such low cost,

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I'm changing the motto now,

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and this is the official public statement.

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I'm officially saying, "Deploy or die."

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You have to get the stuff into the real world

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for it to really count,

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and sometimes it will be large companies,

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and Nicholas can talk about satellites.

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(Applause)

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Thank you.

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But we should be getting out there ourselves

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and not depending on large
institutions to do it for us.

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So last year, we sent a bunch
of students to Shenzhen,

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and they sat on the factory floors

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with the innovators in Shenzhen, and it was amazing.

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What was happening there

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was you would have these manufacturing devices,

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and they weren't making prototypes or PowerPoints.

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They were fiddling with the manufacturing equipment

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and innovating right on the
manufacturing equipment.

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The factory was in the designer,

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and the designer was literally in the factory.

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And so what you would do is,

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you'd go down to the stalls

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and you would see these cell phones.

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So instead of starting little websites

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like the kids in Palo Alto do,

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the kids in Shenzhen make new cell phones.

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They make new cell phones like kids in Palo Alto

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make websites,

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and so there's a rainforest

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of innovation going on in the cell phone.

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What they do is, they make a cell phone,

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go down to the stall, they sell some,

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they look at the other kids' stuff, go up,

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make a couple thousand more, go down.

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Doesn't this sound like a software thing?

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It sounds like agile software development,

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A/B testing and iteration,

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and what we thought you could only do with software

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kids in Shenzhen are doing this in hardware.

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My next fellow, I hope, is going to be

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one of these innovators from Shenzhen.

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And so what you see is

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that is pushing innovation to the edges.

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We talk about 3D printers and stuff like that,

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and that's great, but this is Limor.

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She is one of our favorite graduates,

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and she is standing in front of a Samsung

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Techwin Pick and Place Machine.

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This thing can put 23,000 components per hour

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onto an electronics board.

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This is a factory in a box.

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So what used to take a factory full of workers

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working by hand

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in this little box in New York,

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she's able to have effectively —

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She doesn't actually have to go to Shenzhen

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to do this manufacturing.

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She can buy this box and she can manufacture it.

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So manufacturing, the cost of innovation,

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the cost of prototyping, distribution,
manufacturing, hardware,

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is getting so low

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that innovation is being pushed to the edges

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and students and startups are being able to build it.

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This is a recent thing, but this will happen

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and this will change

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just like it did with software.

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Sorona is a DuPont process

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that uses a genetically engineered microbe

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to turn corn sugar into polyester.

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It's 30 percent more efficient
than the fossil fuel method,

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and it's much better for the environment.

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Genetic engineering and bioengineering

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are creating a whole bunch

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of great new opportunities

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for chemistry, for computation, for memory.

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We will probably be doing a lot,
obviously doing health things,

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but we will probably be growing chairs

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and buildings soon.

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The problem is, Sorona costs
about 400 million dollars

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and took seven years to build.

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It kind of reminds you of the old mainframe days.

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The thing is, the cost of innovation

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in bioengineering is also going down.

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This is desktop gene sequencer.

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It used to cost millions and millions
of dollars to sequence genes.

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Now you can do it on a desktop like this,

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and kids can do this in dorm rooms.

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This is Gen9 gene assembler,

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and so right now when you try to print a gene,

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what you do is somebody in a factory

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with pipettes puts the thing together by hand,

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you have one error per 100 base pairs,

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and it takes a long time and costs a lot of money.

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This new device

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assembles genes on a chip,

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and instead of one error per 100 base pairs,

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it's one error per 10,000 base pairs.

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In this lab, we will have the world's capacity

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of gene printing within a year,

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200 million base pairs a year.

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This is kind of like when we went

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from transistor radios wrapped by hand

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to the Pentium.

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This is going to become the
Pentium of bioengineering,

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pushing bioengineering into the hands

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of dorm rooms and startup companies.

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So it's happening in software and in hardware

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and bioengineering,

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and so this is a fundamental new
way of thinking about innovation.

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It's a bottom-up innovation, it's democratic,

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it's chaotic, it's hard to control.

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It's not bad, but it's very different,

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and I think that the traditional rules that we have

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for institutions don't work anymore,

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and most of us here

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operate with a different set of principles.

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One of my favorite principles is the power of pull,

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which is the idea of pulling resources

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from the network as you need them

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rather than stocking them in the center

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and controlling everything.

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So in the case of the Safecast story,

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I didn't know anything when
the earthquake happened,

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but I was able to find Sean

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who was the hackerspace community organizer,

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and Peter, the analog hardware hacker

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who made our first Geiger counter,

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and Dan, who built the Three Mile Island

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monitoring system after the
Three Mile Island meltdown.

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And these people I wouldn't have been able to find

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beforehand and probably were better

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that I found them just in time from the network.

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I'm a three-time college dropout,

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so learning over education

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is very near and dear to my heart,

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but to me, education is what people do to you

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and learning is what you do to yourself.

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(Applause)

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And it feels like, and I'm biased,

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it feels like they're trying to make you memorize

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the whole encyclopedia before
they let you go out and play,

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and to me, I've got Wikipedia on my cell phone,

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and it feels like they assume

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you're going to be on top of some mountain

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all by yourself with a number 2 pencil

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trying to figure out what to do

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when in fact you're always going to be connected,

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you're always going to have friends,

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and you can pull Wikipedia
up whenever you need it,

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and what you need to learn is how to learn.

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In the case of Safecast, a bunch of amateurs

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when we started three years ago,

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I would argue that we probably as a group

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know more than any other organization

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about how to collect data and publish data

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and do citizen science.

NOTE Paragraph

00:10:50.647 --> 00:10:51.767
Compass over maps.

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So this one, the idea is that the cost of writing a plan

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or mapping something is getting so expensive

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and it's not very accurate or useful.

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So in the Safecast story, we
knew we needed to collect data,

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we knew we wanted to publish the data,

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and instead of trying to come up with the exact plan,

00:11:10.192 --> 00:11:12.600
we first said, oh, let's get Geiger counters.

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Oh, they've run out.

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Let's build them. There aren't enough sensors.

00:11:16.369 --> 00:11:18.596
Okay, then we can make a mobile Geiger counter.

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We can drive around. We can get volunteers.

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We don't have enough money. Let's Kickstarter it.

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We could not have planned this whole thing,

00:11:24.513 --> 00:11:26.257
but by having a very strong compass,

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we eventually got to where we were going,

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and to me it's very similar to
agile software development,

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but this idea of compasses is very important.

NOTE Paragraph

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So I think the good news is

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that even though the world is extremely complex,

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what you need to do is very simple.

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I think it's about stopping this notion

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that you need to plan everything,

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you need to stock everything,

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and you need to be so prepared,

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and focus on being connected,

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always learning,

00:11:52.979 --> 00:11:54.840
fully aware,

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and super present.

NOTE Paragraph

00:11:56.620 --> 00:11:59.566
So I don't like the word "futurist."

00:11:59.566 --> 00:12:05.181
I think we should be now-ists,

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like we are right now.

NOTE Paragraph

00:12:07.227 --> 00:12:09.070
Thank you.

NOTE Paragraph

00:12:09.070 --> 00:12:13.049
(Applause)