We need nuclear power to solve climate change
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0:01 - 0:03It's easy to forget that last night,
-
0:04 - 0:08one billion people went to sleep
without access to electricity. -
0:08 - 0:09One billion people.
-
0:10 - 0:15Two and a half billion people
did not have access to clean cooking fuels -
0:16 - 0:17or clean heating fuels.
-
0:18 - 0:21Those are the problems
in the developing world. -
0:21 - 0:24And it's easy for us not to be empathetic
-
0:24 - 0:26with those people
who seem so distanced from us. -
0:26 - 0:29But even in our own world,
the developed world, -
0:30 - 0:33we see the tension of stagnant economies
-
0:33 - 0:36impacting the lives of people around us.
-
0:36 - 0:39We see it in whole pieces of the economy,
-
0:40 - 0:43where the people involved
have lost hope about the future -
0:43 - 0:45and despair about the present.
-
0:45 - 0:47We see that in the Brexit vote.
-
0:48 - 0:51We see that in the Sanders/Trump
campaigns in my own country. -
0:52 - 0:56But even in countries as recently
turning the corner -
0:57 - 0:58towards being in the developed world,
-
0:58 - 1:00in China,
-
1:00 - 1:02we see the difficulty
that President Xi has -
1:03 - 1:08as he begins to un-employ so many people
in his coal and mining industries -
1:08 - 1:10who see no future for themselves.
-
1:11 - 1:14As we as a society
figure out how to manage -
1:14 - 1:16the problems of the developed world
-
1:16 - 1:18and the problems of the developing world,
-
1:18 - 1:21we have to look at how we move forward
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1:21 - 1:25and manage the environmental impact
of those decisions. -
1:26 - 1:29We've been working on this problem
for 25 years, since Rio, -
1:29 - 1:31the Kyoto Protocols.
-
1:31 - 1:34Our most recent move is the Paris treaty,
-
1:35 - 1:37and the resulting climate agreements
-
1:37 - 1:40that are being ratified
by nations around the world. -
1:40 - 1:42I think we can be very hopeful
-
1:42 - 1:45that those agreements,
which are bottom-up agreements, -
1:45 - 1:48where nations have said
what they think they can do, -
1:48 - 1:52are genuine and forthcoming
for the vast majority of the parties. -
1:53 - 1:55The unfortunate thing
-
1:55 - 1:59is that now, as we look
at the independent analyses -
1:59 - 2:02of what those climate treaties
are liable to yield, -
2:03 - 2:06the magnitude of the problem
before us becomes clear. -
2:07 - 2:11This is the United States
Energy Information Agency's assessment -
2:12 - 2:16of what will happen if the countries
implement the climate commitments -
2:16 - 2:18that they've made in Paris
-
2:18 - 2:20between now and 2040.
-
2:21 - 2:25It shows basically CO2 emissions
around the world -
2:25 - 2:27over the next 30 years.
-
2:28 - 2:32There are three things that you need
to look at and appreciate. -
2:32 - 2:36One, CO2 emissions are expected
to continue to grow -
2:36 - 2:38for the next 30 years.
-
2:39 - 2:42In order to control climate,
-
2:42 - 2:45CO2 emissions have to literally go to zero
-
2:46 - 2:50because it's the cumulative emissions
that drive heating on the planet. -
2:50 - 2:55This should tell you that we are losing
the race to fossil fuels. -
2:56 - 2:57The second thing you should notice
-
2:57 - 3:02is that the bulk of the growth
comes from the developing countries, -
3:02 - 3:05from China, from India,
from the rest of the world, -
3:05 - 3:08which includes South Africa
and Indonesia and Brazil, -
3:09 - 3:12as most of these countries
move their people -
3:12 - 3:15into the lower range of lifestyles
-
3:15 - 3:19that we literally take for granted
in the developed world. -
3:20 - 3:23The final thing that you should notice
-
3:23 - 3:25is that each year,
-
3:25 - 3:32about 10 gigatons of carbon are getting
added to the planet's atmosphere, -
3:33 - 3:36and then diffusing into the ocean
and into the land. -
3:36 - 3:41That's on top of the 550 gigatons
that are in place today. -
3:42 - 3:44At the end of 30 years,
-
3:44 - 3:48we will have put 850 gigatons
of carbon into the air, -
3:49 - 3:51and that probably goes a long way
-
3:51 - 3:58towards locking in a 2-4 degree C increase
in global mean surface temperatures, -
3:58 - 4:01locking in ocean acidification
-
4:01 - 4:03and locking in sea level rise.
-
4:04 - 4:07Now, this is a projection made by men
-
4:08 - 4:10by the actions of society,
-
4:11 - 4:13and it's ours to change, not to accept.
-
4:14 - 4:18But the magnitude of the problem
is something we need to appreciate. -
4:19 - 4:21Different nations make
different energy choices. -
4:21 - 4:23It's a function
of their natural resources. -
4:23 - 4:25It's a function of their climate.
-
4:25 - 4:30It's a function of the development path
that they've followed as a society. -
4:31 - 4:34It's a function of where
on the surface of the planet they are. -
4:34 - 4:37Are they where it's dark
a lot of the time, -
4:37 - 4:39or are they at the mid-latitudes?
-
4:39 - 4:43Many, many, many things
go into the choices of countries, -
4:43 - 4:45and they each make a different choice.
-
4:47 - 4:50The overwhelming thing
that we need to appreciate -
4:50 - 4:52is the choice that China has made.
-
4:53 - 4:55China has made the choice,
-
4:55 - 4:58and will make the choice, to run on coal.
-
4:58 - 5:00The United States has an alternative.
-
5:00 - 5:02It can run on natural gas
-
5:02 - 5:06as a result of the inventions
of fracking and shale gas, -
5:06 - 5:08which we have here.
-
5:08 - 5:09They provide an alternative.
-
5:11 - 5:13The OECD Europe has a choice.
-
5:14 - 5:17It has renewables that it can afford
to deploy in Germany -
5:17 - 5:20because it's rich enough
to afford to do it. -
5:20 - 5:25The French and the British
show interest in nuclear power. -
5:26 - 5:30Eastern Europe, still very heavily
committed to natural gas and to coal, -
5:30 - 5:33and with natural gas
that comes from Russia, -
5:33 - 5:35with all of its entanglements.
-
5:36 - 5:38China has many fewer choices
-
5:38 - 5:40and a much harder row to hoe.
-
5:42 - 5:45If you look at China, and you ask yourself
-
5:45 - 5:47why has coal been important to it,
-
5:47 - 5:49you have to remember what China's done.
-
5:50 - 5:53China brought people to power,
not power to people. -
5:53 - 5:56It didn't do rural electrification.
-
5:56 - 5:58It urbanized.
-
5:58 - 6:02It urbanized by taking low-cost labor
and low-cost energy, -
6:02 - 6:04creating export industries
-
6:04 - 6:07that could fund a tremendous
amount of growth. -
6:08 - 6:10If we look at China's path,
-
6:10 - 6:14all of us know that prosperity in China
has dramatically increased. -
6:15 - 6:19In 1980, 80 percent of China's population
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6:19 - 6:22lived below the extreme poverty level,
-
6:22 - 6:26below the level of having
$1.90 per person per day. -
6:27 - 6:32By the year 2000, only 20 percent
of China's population -
6:32 - 6:35lived below the extreme poverty level --
-
6:35 - 6:37a remarkable feat,
-
6:38 - 6:40admittedly, with some costs
in civil liberties -
6:40 - 6:43that would be tough to accept
in the Western world. -
6:45 - 6:47But the impact of all that wealth
-
6:47 - 6:51allowed people to get
massively better nutrition. -
6:51 - 6:54It allowed water pipes to be placed.
-
6:54 - 6:57It allowed sewage pipes to be placed,
-
6:57 - 7:00dramatic decrease in diarrheal diseases,
-
7:01 - 7:03at the cost of some outdoor air pollution.
-
7:04 - 7:06But in 1980, and even today,
-
7:06 - 7:10the number one killer in China
is indoor air pollution, -
7:11 - 7:16because people do not have access
to clean cooking and heating fuels. -
7:16 - 7:18In fact, in 2040,
-
7:20 - 7:25it's still estimated
that 200 million people in China -
7:25 - 7:28will not have access
to clean cooking fuels. -
7:29 - 7:31They have a remarkable path to follow.
-
7:33 - 7:38India also needs to meet the needs
of its own people, -
7:38 - 7:40and it's going to do that by burning coal.
-
7:40 - 7:46When we look at the EIA's projections
of coal burning in India, -
7:47 - 7:51India will supply nearly four times
as much of its energy from coal -
7:52 - 7:54as it will from renewables.
-
7:55 - 7:58It's not because they don't know
the alternatives; -
7:58 - 8:02it's because rich countries
can do what they choose, -
8:02 - 8:04poor countries do what they must.
-
8:06 - 8:10So what can we do to stop
coal's emissions in time? -
8:11 - 8:16What can we do that changes
this forecast that's in front of us? -
8:16 - 8:20Because it's a forecast that we can change
if we have the will to do it. -
8:21 - 8:25First of all, we have to think
about the magnitude of the problem. -
8:25 - 8:27Between now and 2040,
-
8:27 - 8:33800 to 1,600 new coal plants
are going to be built around the world. -
8:34 - 8:39This week, between one and three
one-gigawatt coal plants -
8:39 - 8:41are being turned on around the world.
-
8:42 - 8:46That's happening regardless
of what we want, -
8:46 - 8:48because the people
that rule their countries, -
8:48 - 8:51assessing the interests of their citizens,
-
8:51 - 8:54have decided it's in the interest
of their citizens to do that. -
8:55 - 8:59And that's going to happen
unless they have a better alternative. -
9:00 - 9:03And every 100 of those plants will use up
-
9:04 - 9:07between one percent and three percent
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9:07 - 9:08of the Earth's climate budget.
-
9:09 - 9:13So every day that you go home
thinking that you should do something -
9:13 - 9:14about global warming,
-
9:15 - 9:17at the end of that week, remember:
-
9:17 - 9:21somebody fired up a coal plant
that's going to run for 50 years -
9:21 - 9:24and take away your ability to change it.
-
9:26 - 9:30What we've forgotten is something
that Vinod Khosla used to talk about, -
9:30 - 9:33a man of Indian ethnicity
but an American venture capitalist. -
9:33 - 9:36And he said, back in the early 2000s,
-
9:36 - 9:40that if you needed to get
China and India off of fossil fuels, -
9:40 - 9:44you had to create a technology
that passed the "Chindia test," -
9:45 - 9:47"Chindia" being the appending
of the two words. -
9:48 - 9:50It had to be first of all viable,
-
9:50 - 9:54meaning that technically, they could
implement it in their country, -
9:54 - 9:57and that it would be accepted
by the people in the country. -
9:58 - 10:05Two, it had to be a technology
that was scalable, -
10:05 - 10:08that it could deliver the same benefits
-
10:08 - 10:11on the same timetable as fossil fuels,
-
10:11 - 10:15so that they can enjoy the kind of life,
again, that we take for granted. -
10:16 - 10:18And third, it had to be cost-effective
-
10:18 - 10:21without subsidy or without mandate.
-
10:21 - 10:24It had to stand on its own two feet;
-
10:24 - 10:28it could not be maintained
for that many people -
10:28 - 10:31if in fact, those countries
had to go begging -
10:31 - 10:35or had some foreign country say,
"I won't trade with you," -
10:35 - 10:39in order to get
the technology shift to occur. -
10:40 - 10:42If you look at the Chindia test,
-
10:42 - 10:47we simply have not come up
with alternatives that meet that test. -
10:47 - 10:50That's what the EIA forecast tells us.
-
10:51 - 10:54China's building 800 gigawatts of coal,
-
10:55 - 10:57400 gigawatts of hydro,
-
10:58 - 11:00about 200 gigawatts of nuclear,
-
11:01 - 11:05and on an energy-equivalent basis,
adjusting for intermittency, -
11:05 - 11:07about 100 gigawatts of renewables.
-
11:08 - 11:09800 gigawatts of coal.
-
11:10 - 11:13They're doing that, knowing the costs
better than any other country, -
11:13 - 11:16knowing the need better
than any other country. -
11:16 - 11:19But that's what they're aiming for in 2040
-
11:19 - 11:21unless we give them a better choice.
-
11:22 - 11:24To give them a better choice,
-
11:24 - 11:26it's going to have to meet
the Chindia test. -
11:26 - 11:29If you look at all the alternatives
that are out there, -
11:29 - 11:31there are really two
that come near to meeting it. -
11:32 - 11:36First is this area of new nuclear
that I'll talk about in just a second. -
11:36 - 11:39It's a new generation of nuclear plants
that are on the drawing boards -
11:39 - 11:41around the world,
-
11:41 - 11:43and the people who are
developing these say -
11:43 - 11:47we can get them
in position to demo by 2025 -
11:47 - 11:51and to scale by 2030,
if you will just let us. -
11:51 - 11:54The second alternative
that could be there in time -
11:55 - 11:58is utility-scale solar
backed up with natural gas, -
11:58 - 12:00which we can use today,
-
12:00 - 12:03versus the batteries
which are still under development. -
12:05 - 12:07So what's holding new nuclear back?
-
12:08 - 12:11Outdated regulations
and yesterday's mindsets. -
12:12 - 12:16We have not used our latest
scientific thinking on radiological health -
12:16 - 12:19to think how we communicate
with the public -
12:19 - 12:21and govern the testing
of new nuclear reactors. -
12:22 - 12:26We have new scientific knowledge
that we need to use -
12:26 - 12:30in order to improve the way
we regulate nuclear industry. -
12:31 - 12:33The second thing is we've got a mindset
-
12:33 - 12:36that it takes 25 years
and 2 to 5 billion dollars -
12:36 - 12:38to develop a nuclear power plant.
-
12:38 - 12:42That comes from the historical,
military mindset -
12:42 - 12:45of the places nuclear power came from.
-
12:45 - 12:48These new nuclear ventures are saying
-
12:48 - 12:50that they can deliver power
for 5 cents a kilowatt hour; -
12:51 - 12:54they can deliver it
for 100 gigawatts a year; -
12:55 - 12:57they can demo it by 2025;
-
12:57 - 13:00and they can deliver it in scale by 2030,
-
13:01 - 13:03if only we give them a chance.
-
13:04 - 13:07Right now, we're basically
waiting for a miracle. -
13:08 - 13:09What we need is a choice.
-
13:10 - 13:13If they can't make it safe,
if they can't make it cheap, -
13:13 - 13:15it should not be deployed.
-
13:15 - 13:19But what I want you to do
is not carry an idea forward, -
13:19 - 13:20but write your leaders,
-
13:20 - 13:23write the head of the NGOs you support,
-
13:23 - 13:26and tell them to give you the choice,
-
13:26 - 13:27not the past.
-
13:27 - 13:29Thank you very much.
-
13:29 - 13:33(Applause)
- Title:
- We need nuclear power to solve climate change
- Speaker:
- Joe Lassiter
- Description:
-
Joe Lassiter is a deep thinker and straight talker focused on developing clean, secure and carbon-neutral supplies of reliable, low-cost energy. His analysis of the world's energy realities puts a powerful lens on the stubbornly touchy issue of nuclear power, including new designs for plants that can compete economically with fossil fuels. We have the potential to make nuclear safer and cheaper than it's been in the past, Lassiter says. Now we have to make the choice to pursue it.
- Video Language:
- English
- Team:
- closed TED
- Project:
- TEDTalks
- Duration:
- 13:46
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