0:00:00.980,0:00:03.452
It's easy to forget that last night,

0:00:04.203,0:00:07.682
one billion people went to sleep[br]without access to electricity.

0:00:08.094,0:00:09.424
One billion people.

0:00:10.298,0:00:15.037
Two and a half billion people[br]did not have access to clean cooking fuels

0:00:15.553,0:00:16.885
or clean heating fuels.

0:00:18.234,0:00:20.596
Those are the problems[br]in the developing world.

0:00:20.982,0:00:23.618
And it's easy for us not to be empathetic

0:00:23.642,0:00:25.955
with those people[br]who seem so distanced from us.

0:00:26.331,0:00:29.106
But even in our own world,[br]the developed world,

0:00:29.725,0:00:32.630
we see the tension of stagnant economies

0:00:33.234,0:00:35.849
impacting the lives of people around us.

0:00:36.241,0:00:39.345
We see it in whole pieces of the economy,

0:00:39.813,0:00:42.912
where the people involved[br]have lost hope about the future

0:00:43.220,0:00:44.942
and despair about the present.

0:00:45.457,0:00:47.005
We see that in the Brexit vote.

0:00:47.546,0:00:50.985
We see that in the Sanders/Trump[br]campaigns in my own country.

0:00:51.667,0:00:56.195
But even in countries as recently[br]turning the corner

0:00:56.619,0:00:58.439
towards being in the developed world,

0:00:58.463,0:00:59.703
in China,

0:00:59.727,0:01:02.303
we see the difficulty[br]that President Xi has

0:01:02.700,0:01:07.666
as he begins to un-employ so many people[br]in his coal and mining industries

0:01:08.214,0:01:10.145
who see no future for themselves.

0:01:11.183,0:01:14.186
As we as a society[br]figure out how to manage

0:01:14.210,0:01:16.163
the problems of the developed world

0:01:16.187,0:01:18.235
and the problems of the developing world,

0:01:18.259,0:01:21.107
we have to look at how we move forward

0:01:21.131,0:01:24.841
and manage the environmental impact[br]of those decisions.

0:01:25.868,0:01:28.967
We've been working on this problem[br]for 25 years, since Rio,

0:01:28.991,0:01:30.674
the Kyoto Protocols.

0:01:31.223,0:01:33.797
Our most recent move is the Paris treaty,

0:01:34.514,0:01:37.088
and the resulting climate agreements

0:01:37.112,0:01:40.021
that are being ratified[br]by nations around the world.

0:01:40.045,0:01:42.232
I think we can be very hopeful

0:01:42.256,0:01:45.394
that those agreements,[br]which are bottom-up agreements,

0:01:45.418,0:01:48.279
where nations have said[br]what they think they can do,

0:01:48.303,0:01:52.381
are genuine and forthcoming[br]for the vast majority of the parties.

0:01:52.977,0:01:54.545
The unfortunate thing

0:01:55.205,0:01:58.732
is that now, as we look[br]at the independent analyses

0:01:58.756,0:02:01.955
of what those climate treaties[br]are liable to yield,

0:02:03.083,0:02:05.992
the magnitude of the problem[br]before us becomes clear.

0:02:06.965,0:02:11.038
This is the United States[br]Energy Information Agency's assessment

0:02:11.625,0:02:16.313
of what will happen if the countries[br]implement the climate commitments

0:02:16.337,0:02:18.373
that they've made in Paris

0:02:18.397,0:02:20.348
between now and 2040.

0:02:21.221,0:02:25.441
It shows basically CO2 emissions[br]around the world

0:02:25.465,0:02:27.146
over the next 30 years.

0:02:28.236,0:02:31.752
There are three things that you need[br]to look at and appreciate.

0:02:32.177,0:02:36.348
One, CO2 emissions are expected[br]to continue to grow

0:02:36.372,0:02:37.831
for the next 30 years.

0:02:39.265,0:02:41.531
In order to control climate,

0:02:42.054,0:02:45.040
CO2 emissions have to literally go to zero

0:02:45.564,0:02:49.718
because it's the cumulative emissions[br]that drive heating on the planet.

0:02:50.445,0:02:54.560
This should tell you that we are losing[br]the race to fossil fuels.

0:02:55.567,0:02:57.430
The second thing you should notice

0:02:57.454,0:03:01.747
is that the bulk of the growth[br]comes from the developing countries,

0:03:01.771,0:03:04.836
from China, from India,[br]from the rest of the world,

0:03:04.860,0:03:08.099
which includes South Africa[br]and Indonesia and Brazil,

0:03:09.024,0:03:11.853
as most of these countries[br]move their people

0:03:12.353,0:03:15.264
into the lower range of lifestyles

0:03:15.288,0:03:19.054
that we literally take for granted[br]in the developed world.

0:03:20.495,0:03:22.878
The final thing that you should notice

0:03:22.902,0:03:24.561
is that each year,

0:03:25.394,0:03:32.354
about 10 gigatons of carbon are getting[br]added to the planet's atmosphere,

0:03:32.994,0:03:35.626
and then diffusing into the ocean[br]and into the land.

0:03:36.011,0:03:41.321
That's on top of the 550 gigatons[br]that are in place today.

0:03:42.062,0:03:43.896
At the end of 30 years,

0:03:43.920,0:03:48.473
we will have put 850 gigatons[br]of carbon into the air,

0:03:49.171,0:03:51.422
and that probably goes a long way

0:03:51.446,0:03:57.607
towards locking in a 2-4 degree C increase[br]in global mean surface temperatures,

0:03:58.140,0:04:00.826
locking in ocean acidification

0:04:01.227,0:04:03.204
and locking in sea level rise.

0:04:04.379,0:04:07.205
Now, this is a projection made by men

0:04:08.197,0:04:10.125
by the actions of society,

0:04:10.863,0:04:13.339
and it's ours to change, not to accept.

0:04:13.912,0:04:17.790
But the magnitude of the problem[br]is something we need to appreciate.

0:04:18.648,0:04:21.091
Different nations make[br]different energy choices.

0:04:21.115,0:04:23.442
It's a function[br]of their natural resources.

0:04:23.466,0:04:25.475
It's a function of their climate.

0:04:25.499,0:04:29.981
It's a function of the development path[br]that they've followed as a society.

0:04:30.664,0:04:34.167
It's a function of where[br]on the surface of the planet they are.

0:04:34.191,0:04:36.691
Are they where it's dark[br]a lot of the time,

0:04:36.715,0:04:38.576
or are they at the mid-latitudes?

0:04:38.989,0:04:42.708
Many, many, many things[br]go into the choices of countries,

0:04:43.185,0:04:45.362
and they each make a different choice.

0:04:46.878,0:04:50.040
The overwhelming thing[br]that we need to appreciate

0:04:50.064,0:04:51.981
is the choice that China has made.

0:04:52.695,0:04:55.289
China has made the choice,

0:04:55.313,0:04:57.818
and will make the choice, to run on coal.

0:04:58.358,0:05:00.377
The United States has an alternative.

0:05:00.401,0:05:02.158
It can run on natural gas

0:05:02.182,0:05:06.007
as a result of the inventions[br]of fracking and shale gas,

0:05:06.031,0:05:07.502
which we have here.

0:05:07.526,0:05:09.091
They provide an alternative.

0:05:10.662,0:05:13.373
The OECD Europe has a choice.

0:05:13.881,0:05:16.950
It has renewables that it can afford[br]to deploy in Germany

0:05:16.974,0:05:19.591
because it's rich enough[br]to afford to do it.

0:05:19.615,0:05:25.103
The French and the British[br]show interest in nuclear power.

0:05:25.702,0:05:30.307
Eastern Europe, still very heavily[br]committed to natural gas and to coal,

0:05:30.331,0:05:33.059
and with natural gas[br]that comes from Russia,

0:05:33.083,0:05:34.853
with all of its entanglements.

0:05:35.558,0:05:38.015
China has many fewer choices

0:05:38.039,0:05:40.289
and a much harder row to hoe.

0:05:41.557,0:05:44.589
If you look at China, and you ask yourself

0:05:44.613,0:05:46.817
why has coal been important to it,

0:05:46.841,0:05:49.053
you have to remember what China's done.

0:05:49.534,0:05:52.841
China brought people to power,[br]not power to people.

0:05:53.380,0:05:55.830
It didn't do rural electrification.

0:05:56.427,0:05:57.601
It urbanized.

0:05:57.954,0:06:02.158
It urbanized by taking low-cost labor[br]and low-cost energy,

0:06:02.182,0:06:04.099
creating export industries

0:06:04.123,0:06:06.630
that could fund a tremendous[br]amount of growth.

0:06:07.535,0:06:09.739
If we look at China's path,

0:06:09.763,0:06:13.896
all of us know that prosperity in China[br]has dramatically increased.

0:06:14.713,0:06:19.259
In 1980, 80 percent of China's population

0:06:19.283,0:06:21.717
lived below the extreme poverty level,

0:06:22.493,0:06:26.253
below the level of having[br]$1.90 per person per day.

0:06:26.658,0:06:32.130
By the year 2000, only 20 percent[br]of China's population

0:06:32.154,0:06:34.688
lived below the extreme poverty level --

0:06:35.498,0:06:37.192
a remarkable feat,

0:06:37.977,0:06:40.344
admittedly, with some costs[br]in civil liberties

0:06:40.368,0:06:43.324
that would be tough to accept[br]in the Western world.

0:06:44.548,0:06:47.455
But the impact of all that wealth

0:06:47.479,0:06:50.992
allowed people to get[br]massively better nutrition.

0:06:51.484,0:06:54.199
It allowed water pipes to be placed.

0:06:54.223,0:06:56.682
It allowed sewage pipes to be placed,

0:06:56.706,0:06:59.678
dramatic decrease in diarrheal diseases,

0:07:00.590,0:07:03.213
at the cost of some outdoor air pollution.

0:07:04.070,0:07:06.350
But in 1980, and even today,

0:07:06.374,0:07:10.381
the number one killer in China[br]is indoor air pollution,

0:07:10.833,0:07:15.602
because people do not have access[br]to clean cooking and heating fuels.

0:07:16.066,0:07:18.174
In fact, in 2040,

0:07:19.794,0:07:24.569
it's still estimated[br]that 200 million people in China

0:07:24.593,0:07:28.144
will not have access[br]to clean cooking fuels.

0:07:29.133,0:07:31.489
They have a remarkable path to follow.

0:07:32.854,0:07:37.602
India also needs to meet the needs[br]of its own people,

0:07:37.626,0:07:39.800
and it's going to do that by burning coal.

0:07:40.475,0:07:45.953
When we look at the EIA's projections[br]of coal burning in India,

0:07:46.591,0:07:51.494
India will supply nearly four times[br]as much of its energy from coal

0:07:51.518,0:07:53.557
as it will from renewables.

0:07:54.962,0:07:57.815
It's not because they don't know[br]the alternatives;

0:07:57.839,0:08:01.584
it's because rich countries[br]can do what they choose,

0:08:02.162,0:08:04.309
poor countries do what they must.

0:08:06.198,0:08:09.883
So what can we do to stop[br]coal's emissions in time?

0:08:10.899,0:08:15.511
What can we do that changes[br]this forecast that's in front of us?

0:08:15.535,0:08:19.602
Because it's a forecast that we can change[br]if we have the will to do it.

0:08:21.094,0:08:24.513
First of all, we have to think[br]about the magnitude of the problem.

0:08:24.537,0:08:26.581
Between now and 2040,

0:08:27.104,0:08:32.847
800 to 1,600 new coal plants[br]are going to be built around the world.

0:08:34.085,0:08:38.694
This week, between one and three[br]one-gigawatt coal plants

0:08:38.718,0:08:40.929
are being turned on around the world.

0:08:41.817,0:08:45.867
That's happening regardless[br]of what we want,

0:08:45.891,0:08:48.399
because the people[br]that rule their countries,

0:08:48.423,0:08:50.793
assessing the interests of their citizens,

0:08:50.817,0:08:54.232
have decided it's in the interest[br]of their citizens to do that.

0:08:55.335,0:08:59.302
And that's going to happen[br]unless they have a better alternative.

0:08:59.726,0:09:03.483
And every 100 of those plants will use up

0:09:03.507,0:09:06.638
between one percent and three percent

0:09:06.662,0:09:08.280
of the Earth's climate budget.

0:09:09.264,0:09:12.755
So every day that you go home[br]thinking that you should do something

0:09:12.779,0:09:14.055
about global warming,

0:09:14.594,0:09:16.526
at the end of that week, remember:

0:09:16.550,0:09:20.943
somebody fired up a coal plant[br]that's going to run for 50 years

0:09:20.967,0:09:24.043
and take away your ability to change it.

0:09:25.972,0:09:29.566
What we've forgotten is something[br]that Vinod Khosla used to talk about,

0:09:29.590,0:09:32.712
a man of Indian ethnicity[br]but an American venture capitalist.

0:09:33.339,0:09:36.164
And he said, back in the early 2000s,

0:09:36.188,0:09:40.195
that if you needed to get[br]China and India off of fossil fuels,

0:09:40.219,0:09:43.815
you had to create a technology[br]that passed the "Chindia test,"

0:09:44.640,0:09:47.099
"Chindia" being the appending[br]of the two words.

0:09:47.900,0:09:50.259
It had to be first of all viable,

0:09:50.283,0:09:53.877
meaning that technically, they could[br]implement it in their country,

0:09:53.901,0:09:56.905
and that it would be accepted[br]by the people in the country.

0:09:58.191,0:10:04.764
Two, it had to be a technology[br]that was scalable,

0:10:04.788,0:10:07.806
that it could deliver the same benefits

0:10:07.830,0:10:10.907
on the same timetable as fossil fuels,

0:10:11.387,0:10:15.179
so that they can enjoy the kind of life,[br]again, that we take for granted.

0:10:15.766,0:10:18.275
And third, it had to be cost-effective

0:10:18.299,0:10:20.985
without subsidy or without mandate.

0:10:21.432,0:10:24.146
It had to stand on its own two feet;

0:10:24.170,0:10:28.049
it could not be maintained[br]for that many people

0:10:28.073,0:10:30.529
if in fact, those countries[br]had to go begging

0:10:31.009,0:10:34.828
or had some foreign country say,[br]"I won't trade with you,"

0:10:35.328,0:10:38.611
in order to get[br]the technology shift to occur.

0:10:40.168,0:10:41.854
If you look at the Chindia test,

0:10:41.878,0:10:46.503
we simply have not come up[br]with alternatives that meet that test.

0:10:46.984,0:10:49.828
That's what the EIA forecast tells us.

0:10:50.765,0:10:54.115
China's building 800 gigawatts of coal,

0:10:54.866,0:10:57.050
400 gigawatts of hydro,

0:10:57.772,0:11:00.144
about 200 gigawatts of nuclear,

0:11:00.501,0:11:04.562
and on an energy-equivalent basis,[br]adjusting for intermittency,

0:11:04.586,0:11:06.877
about 100 gigawatts of renewables.

0:11:07.554,0:11:09.462
800 gigawatts of coal.

0:11:09.805,0:11:13.357
They're doing that, knowing the costs[br]better than any other country,

0:11:13.381,0:11:15.933
knowing the need better[br]than any other country.

0:11:16.454,0:11:19.081
But that's what they're aiming for in 2040

0:11:19.105,0:11:21.429
unless we give them a better choice.

0:11:22.199,0:11:23.639
To give them a better choice,

0:11:23.663,0:11:26.224
it's going to have to meet[br]the Chindia test.

0:11:26.248,0:11:28.906
If you look at all the alternatives[br]that are out there,

0:11:28.930,0:11:31.430
there are really two[br]that come near to meeting it.

0:11:31.865,0:11:35.750
First is this area of new nuclear[br]that I'll talk about in just a second.

0:11:36.107,0:11:39.407
It's a new generation of nuclear plants[br]that are on the drawing boards

0:11:39.431,0:11:40.707
around the world,

0:11:40.731,0:11:43.069
and the people who are[br]developing these say

0:11:43.093,0:11:46.634
we can get them[br]in position to demo by 2025

0:11:47.252,0:11:50.525
and to scale by 2030,[br]if you will just let us.

0:11:51.246,0:11:54.080
The second alternative[br]that could be there in time

0:11:54.771,0:11:58.476
is utility-scale solar[br]backed up with natural gas,

0:11:58.500,0:12:00.224
which we can use today,

0:12:00.248,0:12:03.182
versus the batteries[br]which are still under development.

0:12:04.589,0:12:06.924
So what's holding new nuclear back?

0:12:07.686,0:12:11.361
Outdated regulations[br]and yesterday's mindsets.

0:12:11.972,0:12:16.167
We have not used our latest[br]scientific thinking on radiological health

0:12:16.191,0:12:18.879
to think how we communicate[br]with the public

0:12:18.903,0:12:21.281
and govern the testing[br]of new nuclear reactors.

0:12:21.729,0:12:25.926
We have new scientific knowledge[br]that we need to use

0:12:25.950,0:12:30.489
in order to improve the way[br]we regulate nuclear industry.

0:12:30.872,0:12:33.321
The second thing is we've got a mindset

0:12:33.345,0:12:36.154
that it takes 25 years[br]and 2 to 5 billion dollars

0:12:36.178,0:12:37.913
to develop a nuclear power plant.

0:12:37.937,0:12:41.866
That comes from the historical,[br]military mindset

0:12:42.443,0:12:44.851
of the places nuclear power came from.

0:12:45.356,0:12:47.567
These new nuclear ventures are saying

0:12:47.591,0:12:50.496
that they can deliver power[br]for 5 cents a kilowatt hour;

0:12:51.212,0:12:53.813
they can deliver it[br]for 100 gigawatts a year;

0:12:54.543,0:12:56.772
they can demo it by 2025;

0:12:57.168,0:13:00.173
and they can deliver it in scale by 2030,

0:13:00.634,0:13:02.833
if only we give them a chance.

0:13:04.064,0:13:06.967
Right now, we're basically[br]waiting for a miracle.

0:13:07.888,0:13:09.472
What we need is a choice.

0:13:09.952,0:13:12.756
If they can't make it safe,[br]if they can't make it cheap,

0:13:12.780,0:13:14.597
it should not be deployed.

0:13:14.621,0:13:18.675
But what I want you to do[br]is not carry an idea forward,

0:13:18.699,0:13:20.350
but write your leaders,

0:13:20.374,0:13:22.752
write the head of the NGOs you support,

0:13:22.776,0:13:25.719
and tell them to give you the choice,

0:13:26.290,0:13:27.441
not the past.

0:13:27.465,0:13:28.649
Thank you very much.

0:13:28.673,0:13:33.465
(Applause)