WEBVTT 00:00:00.980 --> 00:00:03.452 It's easy to forget that last night, 00:00:04.203 --> 00:00:07.682 one billion people went to sleep without access to electricity. 00:00:08.094 --> 00:00:09.424 One billion people. 00:00:10.298 --> 00:00:15.037 Two and a half billion people did not have access to clean cooking fuels 00:00:15.553 --> 00:00:16.885 or clean heating fuels. 00:00:18.234 --> 00:00:20.596 Those are the problems in the developing world. 00:00:20.982 --> 00:00:23.618 And it's easy for us not to be empathetic 00:00:23.642 --> 00:00:25.955 with those people who seem so distanced from us. NOTE Paragraph 00:00:26.331 --> 00:00:29.106 But even in our own world, the developed world, 00:00:29.725 --> 00:00:32.630 we see the tension of stagnant economies 00:00:33.234 --> 00:00:35.849 impacting the lives of people around us. 00:00:36.241 --> 00:00:39.345 We see it in whole pieces of the economy, 00:00:39.813 --> 00:00:42.912 where the people involved have lost hope about the future 00:00:43.220 --> 00:00:44.942 and despair about the present. 00:00:45.457 --> 00:00:47.005 We see that in the Brexit vote. 00:00:47.546 --> 00:00:50.985 We see that in the Sanders/Trump campaigns in my own country. 00:00:51.667 --> 00:00:56.195 But even in countries as recently turning the corner 00:00:56.619 --> 00:00:58.439 towards being in the developed world, 00:00:58.463 --> 00:00:59.703 in China, 00:00:59.727 --> 00:01:02.303 we see the difficulty that President Xi has 00:01:02.700 --> 00:01:07.666 as he begins to un-employ so many people in his coal and mining industries 00:01:08.214 --> 00:01:10.145 who see no future for themselves. 00:01:11.183 --> 00:01:14.186 As we as a society figure out how to manage 00:01:14.210 --> 00:01:16.163 the problems of the developed world 00:01:16.187 --> 00:01:18.235 and the problems of the developing world, 00:01:18.259 --> 00:01:21.107 we have to look at how we move forward 00:01:21.131 --> 00:01:24.841 and manage the environmental impact of those decisions. NOTE Paragraph 00:01:25.868 --> 00:01:28.967 We've been working on this problem for 25 years, since Rio, 00:01:28.991 --> 00:01:30.674 the Kyoto Protocols. 00:01:31.223 --> 00:01:33.797 Our most recent move is the Paris treaty, 00:01:34.514 --> 00:01:37.088 and the resulting climate agreements 00:01:37.112 --> 00:01:40.021 that are being ratified by nations around the world. 00:01:40.045 --> 00:01:42.232 I think we can be very hopeful 00:01:42.256 --> 00:01:45.394 that those agreements, which are bottom-up agreements, 00:01:45.418 --> 00:01:48.279 where nations have said what they think they can do, 00:01:48.303 --> 00:01:52.381 are genuine and forthcoming for the vast majority of the parties. 00:01:52.977 --> 00:01:54.545 The unfortunate thing 00:01:55.205 --> 00:01:58.732 is that now, as we look at the independent analyses 00:01:58.756 --> 00:02:01.955 of what those climate treaties are liable to yield, 00:02:03.083 --> 00:02:05.992 the magnitude of the problem before us becomes clear. NOTE Paragraph 00:02:06.965 --> 00:02:11.038 This is the United States Energy Information Agency's assessment 00:02:11.625 --> 00:02:16.313 of what will happen if the countries implement the climate commitments 00:02:16.337 --> 00:02:18.373 that they've made in Paris 00:02:18.397 --> 00:02:20.348 between now and 2040. 00:02:21.221 --> 00:02:25.441 It shows basically CO2 emissions around the world 00:02:25.465 --> 00:02:27.146 over the next 30 years. 00:02:28.236 --> 00:02:31.752 There are three things that you need to look at and appreciate. NOTE Paragraph 00:02:32.177 --> 00:02:36.348 One, CO2 emissions are expected to continue to grow 00:02:36.372 --> 00:02:37.831 for the next 30 years. 00:02:39.265 --> 00:02:41.531 In order to control climate, 00:02:42.054 --> 00:02:45.040 CO2 emissions have to literally go to zero 00:02:45.564 --> 00:02:49.718 because it's the cumulative emissions that drive heating on the planet. 00:02:50.445 --> 00:02:54.560 This should tell you that we are losing the race to fossil fuels. NOTE Paragraph 00:02:55.567 --> 00:02:57.430 The second thing you should notice 00:02:57.454 --> 00:03:01.747 is that the bulk of the growth comes from the developing countries, 00:03:01.771 --> 00:03:04.836 from China, from India, from the rest of the world, 00:03:04.860 --> 00:03:08.099 which includes South Africa and Indonesia and Brazil, 00:03:09.024 --> 00:03:11.853 as most of these countries move their people 00:03:12.353 --> 00:03:15.264 into the lower range of lifestyles 00:03:15.288 --> 00:03:19.054 that we literally take for granted in the developed world. NOTE Paragraph 00:03:20.495 --> 00:03:22.878 The final thing that you should notice 00:03:22.902 --> 00:03:24.561 is that each year, 00:03:25.394 --> 00:03:32.354 about 10 gigatons of carbon are getting added to the planet's atmosphere, 00:03:32.994 --> 00:03:35.626 and then diffusing into the ocean and into the land. 00:03:36.011 --> 00:03:41.321 That's on top of the 550 gigatons that are in place today. 00:03:42.062 --> 00:03:43.896 At the end of 30 years, 00:03:43.920 --> 00:03:48.473 we will have put 850 gigatons of carbon into the air, 00:03:49.171 --> 00:03:51.422 and that probably goes a long way 00:03:51.446 --> 00:03:57.607 towards locking in a 2-4 degree C increase in global mean surface temperatures, 00:03:58.140 --> 00:04:00.826 locking in ocean acidification 00:04:01.227 --> 00:04:03.204 and locking in sea level rise. NOTE Paragraph 00:04:04.379 --> 00:04:07.205 Now, this is a projection made by men 00:04:08.197 --> 00:04:10.125 by the actions of society, 00:04:10.863 --> 00:04:13.339 and it's ours to change, not to accept. 00:04:13.912 --> 00:04:17.790 But the magnitude of the problem is something we need to appreciate. NOTE Paragraph 00:04:18.648 --> 00:04:21.091 Different nations make different energy choices. 00:04:21.115 --> 00:04:23.442 It's a function of their natural resources. 00:04:23.466 --> 00:04:25.475 It's a function of their climate. 00:04:25.499 --> 00:04:29.981 It's a function of the development path that they've followed as a society. 00:04:30.664 --> 00:04:34.167 It's a function of where on the surface of the planet they are. 00:04:34.191 --> 00:04:36.691 Are they where it's dark a lot of the time, 00:04:36.715 --> 00:04:38.576 or are they at the mid-latitudes? 00:04:38.989 --> 00:04:42.708 Many, many, many things go into the choices of countries, 00:04:43.185 --> 00:04:45.362 and they each make a different choice. NOTE Paragraph 00:04:46.878 --> 00:04:50.040 The overwhelming thing that we need to appreciate 00:04:50.064 --> 00:04:51.981 is the choice that China has made. 00:04:52.695 --> 00:04:55.289 China has made the choice, 00:04:55.313 --> 00:04:57.818 and will make the choice, to run on coal. 00:04:58.358 --> 00:05:00.377 The United States has an alternative. 00:05:00.401 --> 00:05:02.158 It can run on natural gas 00:05:02.182 --> 00:05:06.007 as a result of the inventions of fracking and shale gas, 00:05:06.031 --> 00:05:07.502 which we have here. 00:05:07.526 --> 00:05:09.091 They provide an alternative. 00:05:10.662 --> 00:05:13.373 The OECD Europe has a choice. 00:05:13.881 --> 00:05:16.950 It has renewables that it can afford to deploy in Germany 00:05:16.974 --> 00:05:19.591 because it's rich enough to afford to do it. 00:05:19.615 --> 00:05:25.103 The French and the British show interest in nuclear power. 00:05:25.702 --> 00:05:30.307 Eastern Europe, still very heavily committed to natural gas and to coal, 00:05:30.331 --> 00:05:33.059 and with natural gas that comes from Russia, 00:05:33.083 --> 00:05:34.853 with all of its entanglements. 00:05:35.558 --> 00:05:38.015 China has many fewer choices 00:05:38.039 --> 00:05:40.289 and a much harder row to hoe. NOTE Paragraph 00:05:41.557 --> 00:05:44.589 If you look at China, and you ask yourself 00:05:44.613 --> 00:05:46.817 why has coal been important to it, 00:05:46.841 --> 00:05:49.053 you have to remember what China's done. 00:05:49.534 --> 00:05:52.841 China brought people to power, not power to people. 00:05:53.380 --> 00:05:55.830 It didn't do rural electrification. 00:05:56.427 --> 00:05:57.601 It urbanized. 00:05:57.954 --> 00:06:02.158 It urbanized by taking low-cost labor and low-cost energy, 00:06:02.182 --> 00:06:04.099 creating export industries 00:06:04.123 --> 00:06:06.630 that could fund a tremendous amount of growth. NOTE Paragraph 00:06:07.535 --> 00:06:09.739 If we look at China's path, 00:06:09.763 --> 00:06:13.896 all of us know that prosperity in China has dramatically increased. 00:06:14.713 --> 00:06:19.259 In 1980, 80 percent of China's population 00:06:19.283 --> 00:06:21.717 lived below the extreme poverty level, 00:06:22.493 --> 00:06:26.253 below the level of having $1.90 per person per day. 00:06:26.658 --> 00:06:32.130 By the year 2000, only 20 percent of China's population 00:06:32.154 --> 00:06:34.688 lived below the extreme poverty level -- 00:06:35.498 --> 00:06:37.192 a remarkable feat, 00:06:37.977 --> 00:06:40.344 admittedly, with some costs in civil liberties 00:06:40.368 --> 00:06:43.324 that would be tough to accept in the Western world. 00:06:44.548 --> 00:06:47.455 But the impact of all that wealth 00:06:47.479 --> 00:06:50.992 allowed people to get massively better nutrition. 00:06:51.484 --> 00:06:54.199 It allowed water pipes to be placed. 00:06:54.223 --> 00:06:56.682 It allowed sewage pipes to be placed, 00:06:56.706 --> 00:06:59.678 dramatic decrease in diarrheal diseases, 00:07:00.590 --> 00:07:03.213 at the cost of some outdoor air pollution. NOTE Paragraph 00:07:04.070 --> 00:07:06.350 But in 1980, and even today, 00:07:06.374 --> 00:07:10.381 the number one killer in China is indoor air pollution, 00:07:10.833 --> 00:07:15.602 because people do not have access to clean cooking and heating fuels. 00:07:16.066 --> 00:07:18.174 In fact, in 2040, 00:07:19.794 --> 00:07:24.569 it's still estimated that 200 million people in China 00:07:24.593 --> 00:07:28.144 will not have access to clean cooking fuels. 00:07:29.133 --> 00:07:31.489 They have a remarkable path to follow. NOTE Paragraph 00:07:32.854 --> 00:07:37.602 India also needs to meet the needs of its own people, 00:07:37.626 --> 00:07:39.800 and it's going to do that by burning coal. 00:07:40.475 --> 00:07:45.953 When we look at the EIA's projections of coal burning in India, 00:07:46.591 --> 00:07:51.494 India will supply nearly four times as much of its energy from coal 00:07:51.518 --> 00:07:53.557 as it will from renewables. 00:07:54.962 --> 00:07:57.815 It's not because they don't know the alternatives; 00:07:57.839 --> 00:08:01.584 it's because rich countries can do what they choose, 00:08:02.162 --> 00:08:04.309 poor countries do what they must. NOTE Paragraph 00:08:06.198 --> 00:08:09.883 So what can we do to stop coal's emissions in time? 00:08:10.899 --> 00:08:15.511 What can we do that changes this forecast that's in front of us? 00:08:15.535 --> 00:08:19.602 Because it's a forecast that we can change if we have the will to do it. NOTE Paragraph 00:08:21.094 --> 00:08:24.513 First of all, we have to think about the magnitude of the problem. 00:08:24.537 --> 00:08:26.581 Between now and 2040, 00:08:27.104 --> 00:08:32.847 800 to 1,600 new coal plants are going to be built around the world. 00:08:34.085 --> 00:08:38.694 This week, between one and three one-gigawatt coal plants 00:08:38.718 --> 00:08:40.929 are being turned on around the world. 00:08:41.817 --> 00:08:45.867 That's happening regardless of what we want, 00:08:45.891 --> 00:08:48.399 because the people that rule their countries, 00:08:48.423 --> 00:08:50.793 assessing the interests of their citizens, 00:08:50.817 --> 00:08:54.232 have decided it's in the interest of their citizens to do that. 00:08:55.335 --> 00:08:59.302 And that's going to happen unless they have a better alternative. 00:08:59.726 --> 00:09:03.483 And every 100 of those plants will use up 00:09:03.507 --> 00:09:06.638 between one percent and three percent 00:09:06.662 --> 00:09:08.280 of the Earth's climate budget. NOTE Paragraph 00:09:09.264 --> 00:09:12.755 So every day that you go home thinking that you should do something 00:09:12.779 --> 00:09:14.055 about global warming, 00:09:14.594 --> 00:09:16.526 at the end of that week, remember: 00:09:16.550 --> 00:09:20.943 somebody fired up a coal plant that's going to run for 50 years 00:09:20.967 --> 00:09:24.043 and take away your ability to change it. NOTE Paragraph 00:09:25.972 --> 00:09:29.566 What we've forgotten is something that Vinod Khosla used to talk about, 00:09:29.590 --> 00:09:32.712 a man of Indian ethnicity but an American venture capitalist. 00:09:33.339 --> 00:09:36.164 And he said, back in the early 2000s, 00:09:36.188 --> 00:09:40.195 that if you needed to get China and India off of fossil fuels, 00:09:40.219 --> 00:09:43.815 you had to create a technology that passed the "Chindia test," 00:09:44.640 --> 00:09:47.099 "Chindia" being the appending of the two words. 00:09:47.900 --> 00:09:50.259 It had to be first of all viable, 00:09:50.283 --> 00:09:53.877 meaning that technically, they could implement it in their country, 00:09:53.901 --> 00:09:56.905 and that it would be accepted by the people in the country. NOTE Paragraph 00:09:58.191 --> 00:10:04.764 Two, it had to be a technology that was scalable, 00:10:04.788 --> 00:10:07.806 that it could deliver the same benefits 00:10:07.830 --> 00:10:10.907 on the same timetable as fossil fuels, 00:10:11.387 --> 00:10:15.179 so that they can enjoy the kind of life, again, that we take for granted. NOTE Paragraph 00:10:15.766 --> 00:10:18.275 And third, it had to be cost-effective 00:10:18.299 --> 00:10:20.985 without subsidy or without mandate. 00:10:21.432 --> 00:10:24.146 It had to stand on its own two feet; 00:10:24.170 --> 00:10:28.049 it could not be maintained for that many people 00:10:28.073 --> 00:10:30.529 if in fact, those countries had to go begging 00:10:31.009 --> 00:10:34.828 or had some foreign country say, "I won't trade with you," 00:10:35.328 --> 00:10:38.611 in order to get the technology shift to occur. NOTE Paragraph 00:10:40.168 --> 00:10:41.854 If you look at the Chindia test, 00:10:41.878 --> 00:10:46.503 we simply have not come up with alternatives that meet that test. 00:10:46.984 --> 00:10:49.828 That's what the EIA forecast tells us. 00:10:50.765 --> 00:10:54.115 China's building 800 gigawatts of coal, 00:10:54.866 --> 00:10:57.050 400 gigawatts of hydro, 00:10:57.772 --> 00:11:00.144 about 200 gigawatts of nuclear, 00:11:00.501 --> 00:11:04.562 and on an energy-equivalent basis, adjusting for intermittency, 00:11:04.586 --> 00:11:06.877 about 100 gigawatts of renewables. 00:11:07.554 --> 00:11:09.462 800 gigawatts of coal. 00:11:09.805 --> 00:11:13.357 They're doing that, knowing the costs better than any other country, 00:11:13.381 --> 00:11:15.933 knowing the need better than any other country. 00:11:16.454 --> 00:11:19.081 But that's what they're aiming for in 2040 00:11:19.105 --> 00:11:21.429 unless we give them a better choice. 00:11:22.199 --> 00:11:23.639 To give them a better choice, 00:11:23.663 --> 00:11:26.224 it's going to have to meet the Chindia test. NOTE Paragraph 00:11:26.248 --> 00:11:28.906 If you look at all the alternatives that are out there, 00:11:28.930 --> 00:11:31.430 there are really two that come near to meeting it. 00:11:31.865 --> 00:11:35.750 First is this area of new nuclear that I'll talk about in just a second. 00:11:36.107 --> 00:11:39.407 It's a new generation of nuclear plants that are on the drawing boards 00:11:39.431 --> 00:11:40.707 around the world, 00:11:40.731 --> 00:11:43.069 and the people who are developing these say 00:11:43.093 --> 00:11:46.634 we can get them in position to demo by 2025 00:11:47.252 --> 00:11:50.525 and to scale by 2030, if you will just let us. 00:11:51.246 --> 00:11:54.080 The second alternative that could be there in time 00:11:54.771 --> 00:11:58.476 is utility-scale solar backed up with natural gas, 00:11:58.500 --> 00:12:00.224 which we can use today, 00:12:00.248 --> 00:12:03.182 versus the batteries which are still under development. NOTE Paragraph 00:12:04.589 --> 00:12:06.924 So what's holding new nuclear back? 00:12:07.686 --> 00:12:11.361 Outdated regulations and yesterday's mindsets. 00:12:11.972 --> 00:12:16.167 We have not used our latest scientific thinking on radiological health 00:12:16.191 --> 00:12:18.879 to think how we communicate with the public 00:12:18.903 --> 00:12:21.281 and govern the testing of new nuclear reactors. 00:12:21.729 --> 00:12:25.926 We have new scientific knowledge that we need to use 00:12:25.950 --> 00:12:30.489 in order to improve the way we regulate nuclear industry. NOTE Paragraph 00:12:30.872 --> 00:12:33.321 The second thing is we've got a mindset 00:12:33.345 --> 00:12:36.154 that it takes 25 years and 2 to 5 billion dollars 00:12:36.178 --> 00:12:37.913 to develop a nuclear power plant. 00:12:37.937 --> 00:12:41.866 That comes from the historical, military mindset 00:12:42.443 --> 00:12:44.851 of the places nuclear power came from. 00:12:45.356 --> 00:12:47.567 These new nuclear ventures are saying 00:12:47.591 --> 00:12:50.496 that they can deliver power for 5 cents a kilowatt hour; 00:12:51.212 --> 00:12:53.813 they can deliver it for 100 gigawatts a year; 00:12:54.543 --> 00:12:56.772 they can demo it by 2025; 00:12:57.168 --> 00:13:00.173 and they can deliver it in scale by 2030, 00:13:00.634 --> 00:13:02.833 if only we give them a chance. NOTE Paragraph 00:13:04.064 --> 00:13:06.967 Right now, we're basically waiting for a miracle. 00:13:07.888 --> 00:13:09.472 What we need is a choice. 00:13:09.952 --> 00:13:12.756 If they can't make it safe, if they can't make it cheap, 00:13:12.780 --> 00:13:14.597 it should not be deployed. 00:13:14.621 --> 00:13:18.675 But what I want you to do is not carry an idea forward, 00:13:18.699 --> 00:13:20.350 but write your leaders, 00:13:20.374 --> 00:13:22.752 write the head of the NGOs you support, 00:13:22.776 --> 00:13:25.719 and tell them to give you the choice, 00:13:26.290 --> 00:13:27.441 not the past. NOTE Paragraph 00:13:27.465 --> 00:13:28.649 Thank you very much. NOTE Paragraph 00:13:28.673 --> 00:13:33.465 (Applause)