10 billion people for dinner | Nina Fedoroff | TEDxCERN
-
0:20 - 0:22I'm here today to challenge
-
0:22 - 0:26the way we think
about food and civilization. -
0:27 - 0:33We live in a mobile, highly-technological,
largely urban civilization; -
0:34 - 0:39our food markets
are bursting with produce. -
0:39 - 0:42We have an amazing global system
-
0:42 - 0:47that brings food from all over the world
to those who can buy it; -
0:47 - 0:51and there's the rub:
to those who can buy it. -
0:53 - 0:57In 2008, the food prices spiked
-
0:57 - 1:02and food riots broke out
in 30 countries; governments fell. -
1:03 - 1:06At the time, I was working
as the science advisor -
1:06 - 1:09to the US Secretary of State,
then, Condoleezza Rice. -
1:10 - 1:12She asked me to organize
-
1:12 - 1:16a high-level meeting
on this food price crisis. -
1:17 - 1:23Secretary of Defense Bob Gates was there;
he understood the implications. -
1:25 - 1:28In the ensuing years,
food prices moderated, -
1:28 - 1:33then spiked again,
and the Arab Spring began. -
1:34 - 1:38(Video starts) (Moderator)
Angry protesters burning tires, -
1:38 - 1:42blocking roads, and attacking
the police with fireworks -
1:42 - 1:43in the Algerian capital.
-
1:43 - 1:45They are protesting
-
1:45 - 1:49over the rise in food prices
and unemployment. -
1:49 - 1:52(Arabic) We do not accept
this government -
1:52 - 1:54because we've been suffering
for ten years -
1:54 - 1:57and ten more years are coming,
and nothing will have changed. -
1:57 - 1:59(Moderator) Anti riot squads
-
1:59 - 2:02deployed in many Algerian cities
-
2:02 - 2:05as a simmering anger
threatens massive protest -
2:05 - 2:08in the oil and gas-rich
North African country. -
2:08 - 2:10(Rioters) The government
is humiliating us, -
2:10 - 2:12they're raising the price of sugar.
-
2:12 - 2:13We have to pay the rent,
-
2:13 - 2:17the electricity, water,
sugar,and oil; we're all poor. -
2:17 - 2:18(Video ends)
-
2:19 - 2:21Nina Fedoroff: You all know
how that came out; -
2:22 - 2:26and if you think
that's a coincidence, watch this: -
2:27 - 2:30the red lines mark when,
-
2:31 - 2:34and the flags mark
where food riots happen - -
2:37 - 2:39a scary thought.
-
2:39 - 2:45Can the stability of governments,
indeed civilizations, ride on food? -
2:47 - 2:53Let's go back for a moment
and look at how civilizations started. -
2:54 - 2:58For most of our history,
we were hunter-gatherers. -
2:58 - 3:02We spent our days
gathering and capturing food. -
3:03 - 3:06Then, about 10 or 20,000 years ago,
-
3:06 - 3:11we began to adapt plants and animals
better to our own deeds, -
3:11 - 3:15and settle down to grow and herd them.
-
3:15 - 3:17That, of course, is called agriculture,
-
3:17 - 3:21and it allowed us to feed
more than ourselves and our families. -
3:21 - 3:28We could feed scribes,
artisans, warriors, and kings. -
3:28 - 3:32These are scenes
from a 3,000-year-old Egyptian tomb. -
3:33 - 3:36Cities and civilizations flourished.
-
3:36 - 3:42What I'm saying is simply this:
all of human civilization emerged -
3:42 - 3:46because we figured out
how to produce surplus food. -
3:46 - 3:52For millennia,
civilizations rose and fell, -
3:52 - 3:55lasting largely until the land wore out
-
3:55 - 3:58or until the neighbors invaded
having worn out their own. -
4:01 - 4:05Even at the turn of the 18th century,
-
4:08 - 4:10Thomas Malthus told us
-
4:10 - 4:14that we were doomed to hunger and strife
-
4:14 - 4:19because our numbers inevitably grew faster
than our ability to produce food. -
4:19 - 4:22If Malthus thought the game was over
-
4:22 - 4:26when we were just a billion people
on the face of the earth, -
4:26 - 4:28how did we get to today's seven billion?
-
4:29 - 4:33It was just about the time
-
4:33 - 4:37Malthus was penning his gloomy predictions
-
4:37 - 4:41that science began
to enter agriculture in earnest. -
4:42 - 4:44Over the next two centuries,
-
4:45 - 4:50three key innovations
transformed agriculture. -
4:51 - 4:54These were: synthetic fertilizer,
-
4:54 - 4:58genetics, and the internal
combustion engine. -
5:00 - 5:05These three innovations set in motion
the most profound changes -
5:05 - 5:09in human civilization ever.
-
5:13 - 5:17Plants do something quite extraordinary:
-
5:18 - 5:22they make sugar out of water, in thin air;
-
5:22 - 5:25well across the carbon dioxide in the air.
-
5:25 - 5:27We also need nitrogen,
-
5:27 - 5:30but most plants can't use
atmospheric nitrogen. -
5:30 - 5:36Manure contains nitrogen
in the right kinds of compounds, -
5:36 - 5:40and of course, it's been used
since time immemorial to fertilize crops. -
5:41 - 5:45The problem is there
isn't much nitrogen in manure -
5:45 - 5:49so it takes a lot of it
to fertilize crops, -
5:49 - 5:53and of course, you have to feed
the animals that produce the manure. -
5:53 - 5:57About a century ago, Fritz Haber
and Carl Bosch figured out -
5:57 - 6:03how to convert nitrogen in the atmosphere
to compounds plants can use. -
6:03 - 6:07That's done in huge plants
all around the world today. -
6:08 - 6:10And then, there's genetics.
-
6:10 - 6:16This is Nobel laureate Norman Borlaug,
the father of the Green Revolution -
6:16 - 6:20that put the countries, the populace,
and famine-plagued Asian countries -
6:20 - 6:22on the road out of poverty.
-
6:23 - 6:25What you might not know
-
6:25 - 6:29is that the Green Revolution
was based on mutations, -
6:29 - 6:35genetic changes that allowed plants
to use fertilizer, nitrogen fertilizer, -
6:35 - 6:39more efficiently,
doubling and tripling yields. -
6:41 - 6:46Genetic modification, GM;
today, we vilify that -
6:46 - 6:48- I'll get back to that.
-
6:49 - 6:51Then there's
the internal combustion engine: -
6:51 - 6:53for most of human history,
-
6:54 - 6:59agriculture was back-breaking work
and occupied most people. -
7:00 - 7:04The populace remained largely agrarian
even in developed countries, -
7:04 - 7:07well into the 20th century.
-
7:09 - 7:14As machines gradually took over the task,
-
7:14 - 7:19it requires fewer and fewer people
to produce more and more food; -
7:19 - 7:24people flow to cities, cities became
hotbeds of innovation and collaboration; -
7:25 - 7:31technology-driven
wealth generation accelerated -
7:31 - 7:36giving us all the machines, the gadgets,
and the comforts of modern life, -
7:36 - 7:38even the Internet and even Twitter.
-
7:40 - 7:42What does the future hold?
-
7:43 - 7:47Was Malthus just plain wrong
because he didn't figure out science? -
7:48 - 7:49Are there limits
-
7:51 - 7:55to how much, how many people
the plant can provision? -
7:56 - 7:59Will climate change help or harm?
-
7:59 - 8:01Let's look at some trends.
-
8:02 - 8:04Population growth is slowing,
-
8:04 - 8:09but it's not likely to stop
much short of 10 billion; -
8:09 - 8:11probably will go higher.
-
8:13 - 8:17As technology powers country
after country out of poverty, -
8:17 - 8:21people want to eat more meat;
-
8:21 - 8:27transitioning from a grain-based diet
to a meat-based diet requires more grain; -
8:28 - 8:33growing more grain requires more land,
but there isn't any more. -
8:34 - 8:37In fact, we're losing it faster
-
8:37 - 8:42to urbanization, salinization,
and desertification than we're adding it. -
8:42 - 8:45If we don't do something different,
-
8:45 - 8:47we'll be back to Malthus in our lifetime;
-
8:47 - 8:53well, maybe not mine,
but certainly yours and your children's. -
8:56 - 8:58Then there's climate change.
-
8:58 - 9:04Our major food and feed crops
grow best at about the temperatures -
9:04 - 9:06that you and I find comfortable.
-
9:06 - 9:10Let me draw your attention
to this very hot summer of 2003 -
9:10 - 9:12many of you experienced it.
-
9:13 - 9:18It was only three degrees
above average for the last century, -
9:19 - 9:24but crop yields declined by about 30%;
-
9:24 - 9:30think about that - that's going to be
an average summer in a few decades, -
9:31 - 9:34and a cool summer
by the end of the century. -
9:37 - 9:39Then there's water -
-
9:39 - 9:42the most productive agriculture
is irrigated agriculture, -
9:42 - 9:45and the most reliable water
comes from deep underground, -
9:45 - 9:47indeed, from fossil aquifers.
-
9:48 - 9:52These are being exhausted faster
and faster the world around. -
9:53 - 9:55Not good trends;
-
9:57 - 10:03I think that our past successes
in our bursting food markets -
10:04 - 10:10have led a lot of city folks into thinking
Malthus is ancient history; -
10:11 - 10:14but Norman Borlaug knew otherwise.
-
10:15 - 10:18In his Nobel Prize speech, he said,
-
10:18 - 10:23"We may be at high tide now,
but ebb tide could soon set in -
10:23 - 10:27if we become complacent
and relax our efforts," -
10:27 - 10:29and that's just what we've done.
-
10:29 - 10:34We've contracted our investments
in agricultural research -
10:34 - 10:39leaving the job primarily
to big agribusiness companies, -
10:39 - 10:42and then we berated them
- think Monsanto. -
10:42 - 10:47We've taken to the notion of organic food
because it's more natural; -
10:47 - 10:48don't be seduced -
-
10:48 - 10:52the primary tenant
of organic farming is a prohibition -
10:52 - 10:56on the use of synthetic fertilizer,
but manure alone can't do the job; -
10:56 - 11:00if we, the entire world,
went organic tomorrow, -
11:00 - 11:04we could probably feed
half of our current population. -
11:05 - 11:09So can we feed 10 billion people?
-
11:10 - 11:15I think we can, but we have
to think and act differently. -
11:17 - 11:23Agriculture is a complex system
of water, energy, chemical nutrients, -
11:23 - 11:26environment, of course, people;
-
11:26 - 11:29we have to optimize that system as a whole
-
11:29 - 11:32and make it more sustainable.
-
11:32 - 11:35Very easy to say, hard to do.
-
11:35 - 11:38Let me give you some specifics:
-
11:38 - 11:40we need to increase the yield
-
11:40 - 11:45on the land we already farm
using less water. -
11:45 - 11:51One contribution of many
is moving high-value crops indoors. -
11:51 - 11:55This is a very modern greenhouse
in Southern California; -
11:55 - 11:57tomatoes are growing
on strings straight up -
11:57 - 12:02producing five to ten times as much this
they produce in open fields, -
12:02 - 12:07as much as 100 kilograms
per square meter per year -
12:07 - 12:10using a tenth as much water.
-
12:10 - 12:15We can build greenhouses
in cities on rooftops, -
12:17 - 12:19and even in the desert
with a bit of tweaking, -
12:20 - 12:22but we won't grow our grain under glass.
-
12:24 - 12:27Today, farmers distribute
-
12:27 - 12:31a hundred million tons
of chemical fertilizer -
12:31 - 12:34on their fields each year.
-
12:34 - 12:38Much of it runs off to pollute
our waterways, killing them; -
12:38 - 12:42figuring out how to deliver the nutrients
precisely when they are needed, -
12:42 - 12:46exactly where they're needed
is one of the challenges of the future. -
12:46 - 12:49Here's one system, is called fertigation,
-
12:49 - 12:53and you can see the nutrients in the water
go directly to the roots underground, -
12:53 - 12:56but there's much more to be done.
-
12:56 - 12:58Then there's insecticides -
-
12:58 - 13:02we use about a billion pounds
a year globally, -
13:02 - 13:09to kill pests like this corn earworm,
but they also kill beneficial insects. -
13:09 - 13:16Rachel Carson, author of "Silent Spring"
that ignited the environmental movement -
13:16 - 13:18dreamed of a time
-
13:18 - 13:22that we could do this biologically
rather than with toxic chemicals. -
13:22 - 13:26Now we can: take this corn
- is called BT corn. -
13:26 - 13:30similar to any other corn
except it has one extra gene in it, -
13:30 - 13:35taken from a safe bacterium
used as a pesticide by organic farmers -
13:35 - 13:39and put directly
into the genome of the plant. -
13:40 - 13:44This is modern genetic modification, GM:
-
13:44 - 13:48the plant produces the bacterial protein,
-
13:48 - 13:54and it affects only the insects
that munch on the plant; -
13:54 - 13:58insecticide use has gone down
a lot, worldwide, -
13:58 - 14:02with the use of these plants,
with these crops, -
14:03 - 14:07beneficial insects flourish,
and farmers' prices come down; -
14:07 - 14:10but there's much, much more
that can be done. -
14:10 - 14:14We can look forward to crops
that withstand drought, -
14:14 - 14:19that use nitrogen more efficiently,
that tolerate heat, -
14:19 - 14:23and they are frankly,
more nutritious for us, -
14:24 - 14:31but contemporary
genetically modified crops -
14:32 - 14:35are the only ones
that have gotten the GMO moniker, -
14:35 - 14:37and that's a fearful word.
-
14:37 - 14:40Google it, and you'll be astounded:
-
14:41 - 14:45GMOs have been blamed
for farmer suicides in India, -
14:45 - 14:49tumors in rats,
and every manner of human ill -
14:49 - 14:54from autism to obesity
to infertility and cancer. -
14:56 - 15:01Scary - fortunately, none of it is true.
-
15:03 - 15:07Indeed, after 25 years
of government research, -
15:07 - 15:15the EU published a report, basically
summarizing the 25 years of research -
15:15 - 15:18costing upwards of 300 million euros
-
15:18 - 15:25by saying very simply the modification
of plants by GM techniques -
15:25 - 15:30is no more dangerous than modification
of plants by other techniques. -
15:31 - 15:40But the GMO wars rage on
fueled by electronic gossip, -
15:40 - 15:44by organizations
that exploit GM fears for profit; -
15:44 - 15:49fears sell better than facts.
-
15:51 - 15:55Important work on GM crops
has been destroyed the world around -
15:55 - 16:00like work on this golden rice,
vitamin-A-enriched rice; -
16:02 - 16:04I myself have been picketed,
-
16:04 - 16:09verbally abused,
subject to endless hate email, -
16:09 - 16:12and even narrowly escaped physical attack,
-
16:12 - 16:15all because I keep trying to explain
-
16:15 - 16:20the science and the sense
behind this amazing revolution. -
16:21 - 16:25We are approaching a tipping point;
-
16:26 - 16:32we expect 10 billion people for dinner
in the not-too-distant future. -
16:35 - 16:40How we meet their demands for food
will again reshape civilization; -
16:42 - 16:47will we continue to ignore facts
and cling to fear-based belief systems -
16:48 - 16:52with the glowing embers
of poverty-based social instability -
16:53 - 16:57flare into
civilization- consuming conflagrations? -
16:59 - 17:05Or will we be able to develop, test,
and actually use new technologies? -
17:08 - 17:13Will we be able to realize
the knowledge civilizations -
17:13 - 17:15to which we all aspire?
-
17:17 - 17:20Will we have the wisdom to invest
-
17:20 - 17:25in the scientific
and technological innovations -
17:27 - 17:33that can give everyone a livelihood,
a seat at the table, and enough to eat? -
17:35 - 17:36I believe we can.
-
17:38 - 17:41Will we? I don't know.
-
17:42 - 17:44Thank you.
-
17:44 - 17:45(Applause)
- Title:
- 10 billion people for dinner | Nina Fedoroff | TEDxCERN
- Description:
-
This talk was given at a TEDx event using the TED conference format but independently organized by a local community. Learn more at http://ted.com/tedx
The world population is estimated to reach 10 billion in the near future. How can we feed so many with our existing resources? Nina Fedoroff gives an overview of what's needed, highlighting the important role that science has played in developing food and agriculture throughout human history and the solutions it could offer.
Nina Fedoroff's research interests range from the biochemistry of microRNA processing and transposition to the design of greenhouses for hot, humid environments, although she is best known for her pioneering work on plant transposons. A PhD from Rockefeller University, she is an Evan Pugh Professor at Pennsylvania State University. A 2006 National Medal of Science laureate, she served as Science and Technology Adviser to the US Secretary of State and to USAID's administrator.
- Video Language:
- English
- Team:
- closed TED
- Project:
- TEDxTalks
- Duration:
- 17:56
Denise RQ edited English subtitles for 10 billion people for dinner | Nina Fedoroff | TEDxCERN | ||
Denise RQ approved English subtitles for 10 billion people for dinner | Nina Fedoroff | TEDxCERN | ||
Lena Clemente accepted English subtitles for 10 billion people for dinner | Nina Fedoroff | TEDxCERN | ||
Lena Clemente edited English subtitles for 10 billion people for dinner | Nina Fedoroff | TEDxCERN | ||
Lena Clemente edited English subtitles for 10 billion people for dinner | Nina Fedoroff | TEDxCERN | ||
Lena Clemente edited English subtitles for 10 billion people for dinner | Nina Fedoroff | TEDxCERN | ||
Lena Clemente edited English subtitles for 10 billion people for dinner | Nina Fedoroff | TEDxCERN | ||
Denise RQ edited English subtitles for 10 billion people for dinner | Nina Fedoroff | TEDxCERN |