0:00:20.313,0:00:22.184
I'm here today to challenge

0:00:22.184,0:00:26.012
the way we think[br]about food and civilization.

0:00:27.066,0:00:33.377
We live in a mobile, highly-technological,[br]largely urban civilization;

0:00:34.020,0:00:38.925
our food markets[br]are bursting with produce.

0:00:38.925,0:00:41.919
We have an amazing global system

0:00:41.919,0:00:46.862
that brings food from all over the world[br]to those who can buy it;

0:00:46.862,0:00:51.459
and there's the rub:[br]to those who can buy it.

0:00:53.180,0:00:57.322
In 2008, the food prices spiked

0:00:57.322,0:01:02.152
and food riots broke out[br]in 30 countries; governments fell.

0:01:02.996,0:01:05.780
At the time, I was working[br]as the science advisor

0:01:05.780,0:01:09.184
to the US Secretary of State,[br]then, Condoleezza Rice.

0:01:09.557,0:01:11.897
She asked me to organize

0:01:11.897,0:01:16.215
a high-level meeting[br]on this food price crisis.

0:01:16.745,0:01:22.837
Secretary of Defense Bob Gates was there;[br]he understood the implications.

0:01:24.533,0:01:27.736
In the ensuing years,[br]food prices moderated,

0:01:28.426,0:01:32.990
then spiked again,[br]and the Arab Spring began.

0:01:34.267,0:01:37.892
(Video starts) (Moderator)[br]Angry protesters burning tires,

0:01:37.892,0:01:41.588
blocking roads, and attacking[br]the police with fireworks

0:01:41.588,0:01:43.487
in the Algerian capital.

0:01:43.487,0:01:45.299
They are protesting

0:01:45.299,0:01:48.924
over the rise in food prices[br]and unemployment.

0:01:48.924,0:01:51.806
(Arabic) We do not accept[br]this government

0:01:51.806,0:01:53.789
because we've been suffering[br]for ten years

0:01:53.789,0:01:56.706
and ten more years are coming,[br]and nothing will have changed.

0:01:56.706,0:01:59.216
(Moderator) Anti riot squads

0:01:59.216,0:02:01.585
deployed in many Algerian cities

0:02:01.585,0:02:05.183
as a simmering anger[br]threatens massive protest

0:02:05.183,0:02:08.281
in the oil and gas-rich[br]North African country.

0:02:08.281,0:02:10.365
(Rioters) The government[br]is humiliating us,

0:02:10.365,0:02:12.125
they're raising the price of sugar.

0:02:12.125,0:02:13.454
We have to pay the rent,

0:02:13.454,0:02:16.607
the electricity, water,[br]sugar,and oil; we're all poor.

0:02:16.607,0:02:17.937
(Video ends)

0:02:18.657,0:02:21.270
Nina Fedoroff: You all know[br]how that came out;

0:02:21.759,0:02:25.552
and if you think[br]that's a coincidence, watch this:

0:02:27.005,0:02:30.194
the red lines mark when,

0:02:30.704,0:02:33.935
and the flags mark[br]where food riots happen -

0:02:37.309,0:02:38.713
a scary thought.

0:02:39.433,0:02:44.983
Can the stability of governments,[br]indeed civilizations, ride on food?

0:02:47.267,0:02:52.850
Let's go back for a moment[br]and look at how civilizations started.

0:02:53.766,0:02:57.929
For most of our history,[br]we were hunter-gatherers.

0:02:57.929,0:03:02.381
We spent our days [br]gathering and capturing food.

0:03:02.658,0:03:05.813
Then, about 10 or 20,000 years ago,

0:03:05.813,0:03:10.849
we began to adapt plants and animals[br]better to our own deeds,

0:03:10.849,0:03:14.668
and settle down to grow and herd them.

0:03:14.668,0:03:17.316
That, of course, is called agriculture,

0:03:17.316,0:03:20.668
and it allowed us to feed[br]more than ourselves and our families.

0:03:21.488,0:03:27.802
We could feed scribes,[br]artisans, warriors, and kings.

0:03:27.804,0:03:32.430
These are scenes [br]from a 3,000-year-old Egyptian tomb.

0:03:33.447,0:03:36.216
Cities and civilizations flourished.

0:03:36.216,0:03:42.042
What I'm saying is simply this:[br]all of human civilization emerged

0:03:42.042,0:03:46.262
because we figured out[br]how to produce surplus food.

0:03:46.262,0:03:51.812
For millennia,[br]civilizations rose and fell,

0:03:51.812,0:03:55.342
lasting largely until the land wore out

0:03:55.342,0:03:58.354
or until the neighbors invaded[br]having worn out their own.

0:04:00.757,0:04:04.866
Even at the turn of the 18th century,

0:04:07.546,0:04:09.983
Thomas Malthus told us

0:04:09.983,0:04:13.958
that we were doomed to hunger and strife

0:04:13.958,0:04:19.346
because our numbers inevitably grew faster[br]than our ability to produce food.

0:04:19.346,0:04:22.304
If Malthus thought the game was over

0:04:22.304,0:04:25.528
when we were just a billion people[br]on the face of the earth,

0:04:25.528,0:04:28.443
how did we get to today's seven billion?

0:04:29.368,0:04:32.507
It was just about the time

0:04:32.507,0:04:36.507
Malthus was penning his gloomy predictions

0:04:36.927,0:04:40.927
that science began[br]to enter agriculture in earnest.

0:04:41.752,0:04:44.089
Over the next two centuries,

0:04:44.669,0:04:50.086
three key innovations[br]transformed agriculture.

0:04:50.916,0:04:54.146
These were: synthetic fertilizer,

0:04:54.146,0:04:58.327
genetics, and the internal[br]combustion engine.

0:05:00.211,0:05:04.855
These three innovations set in motion[br]the most profound changes

0:05:04.855,0:05:08.722
in human civilization ever.

0:05:12.911,0:05:17.090
Plants do something quite extraordinary:

0:05:18.168,0:05:21.954
they make sugar out of water, in thin air;

0:05:21.954,0:05:24.670
well across the carbon dioxide in the air.

0:05:24.670,0:05:26.837
We also need nitrogen,

0:05:26.837,0:05:30.316
but most plants can't use[br]atmospheric nitrogen.

0:05:30.316,0:05:35.835
Manure contains nitrogen[br]in the right kinds of compounds,

0:05:35.835,0:05:40.458
and of course, it's been used[br]since time immemorial to fertilize crops.

0:05:41.215,0:05:45.229
The problem is there[br]isn't much nitrogen in manure

0:05:45.229,0:05:49.057
so it takes a lot of it[br]to fertilize crops,

0:05:49.057,0:05:52.949
and of course, you have to feed[br]the animals that produce the manure.

0:05:52.949,0:05:57.396
About a century ago, Fritz Haber[br]and Carl Bosch figured out

0:05:57.396,0:06:02.952
how to convert nitrogen in the atmosphere[br]to compounds plants can use.

0:06:02.952,0:06:06.741
That's done in huge plants[br]all around the world today.

0:06:08.247,0:06:09.978
And then, there's genetics.

0:06:09.978,0:06:15.539
This is Nobel laureate Norman Borlaug,[br]the father of the Green Revolution

0:06:15.539,0:06:20.221
that put the countries, the populace,[br]and famine-plagued Asian countries

0:06:20.221,0:06:22.484
on the road out of poverty.

0:06:23.055,0:06:25.143
What you might not know

0:06:25.143,0:06:29.149
is that the Green Revolution[br]was based on mutations,

0:06:29.149,0:06:35.224
genetic changes that allowed plants[br]to use fertilizer, nitrogen fertilizer,

0:06:35.224,0:06:39.434
more efficiently,[br]doubling and tripling yields.

0:06:41.468,0:06:45.972
Genetic modification, GM;[br]today, we vilify that

0:06:45.972,0:06:47.888
- I'll get back to that.

0:06:48.539,0:06:50.593
Then there's[br]the internal combustion engine:

0:06:50.593,0:06:52.815
for most of human history,

0:06:53.795,0:06:58.747
agriculture was back-breaking work[br]and occupied most people.

0:06:59.814,0:07:04.057
The populace remained largely agrarian[br]even in developed countries,

0:07:04.057,0:07:06.958
well into the 20th century.

0:07:08.928,0:07:13.520
As machines gradually took over the task,

0:07:13.520,0:07:18.600
it requires fewer and fewer people[br]to produce more and more food;

0:07:18.600,0:07:23.643
people flow to cities, cities became[br]hotbeds of innovation and collaboration;

0:07:24.897,0:07:30.732
technology-driven[br]wealth generation accelerated

0:07:30.732,0:07:35.948
giving us all the machines, the gadgets,[br]and the comforts of modern life,

0:07:35.948,0:07:38.303
even the Internet and even Twitter.

0:07:40.317,0:07:42.020
What does the future hold?

0:07:42.840,0:07:47.018
Was Malthus just plain wrong[br]because he didn't figure out science?

0:07:47.524,0:07:49.248
Are there limits

0:07:50.568,0:07:55.372
to how much, how many people[br]the plant can provision?

0:07:55.903,0:07:59.342
Will climate change help or harm?

0:07:59.342,0:08:01.003
Let's look at some trends.

0:08:01.713,0:08:04.224
Population growth is slowing,

0:08:04.224,0:08:08.961
but it's not likely to stop[br]much short of 10 billion;

0:08:08.961,0:08:10.726
probably will go higher.

0:08:13.134,0:08:17.186
As technology powers country[br]after country out of poverty,

0:08:17.186,0:08:20.694
people want to eat more meat;

0:08:20.694,0:08:27.107
transitioning from a grain-based diet[br]to a meat-based diet requires more grain;

0:08:28.469,0:08:33.273
growing more grain requires more land,[br]but there isn't any more.

0:08:34.350,0:08:37.107
In fact, we're losing it faster

0:08:37.107,0:08:41.930
to urbanization, salinization,[br]and desertification than we're adding it.

0:08:42.079,0:08:44.561
If we don't do something different,

0:08:44.561,0:08:47.109
we'll be back to Malthus in our lifetime;

0:08:47.109,0:08:53.011
well, maybe not mine,[br]but certainly yours and your children's.

0:08:55.845,0:08:58.205
Then there's climate change.

0:08:58.205,0:09:03.997
Our major food and feed crops[br]grow best at about the temperatures

0:09:03.997,0:09:06.070
that you and I find comfortable.

0:09:06.070,0:09:10.309
Let me draw your attention[br]to this very hot summer of 2003

0:09:10.309,0:09:12.207
many of you experienced it.

0:09:12.937,0:09:17.971
It was only three degrees [br]above average for the last century,

0:09:18.971,0:09:23.951
but crop yields declined by about 30%;

0:09:23.951,0:09:29.796
think about that - that's going to be[br]an average summer in a few decades,

0:09:30.666,0:09:34.266
and a cool summer[br]by the end of the century.

0:09:36.833,0:09:38.660
Then there's water -

0:09:38.660,0:09:41.989
the most productive agriculture[br]is irrigated agriculture,

0:09:41.989,0:09:45.075
and the most reliable water[br]comes from deep underground,

0:09:45.075,0:09:46.638
indeed, from fossil aquifers.

0:09:47.658,0:09:51.884
These are being exhausted faster[br]and faster the world around.

0:09:53.120,0:09:55.312
Not good trends;

0:09:56.722,0:10:03.344
I think that our past successes[br]in our bursting food markets

0:10:04.044,0:10:09.853
have led a lot of city folks into thinking[br]Malthus is ancient history;

0:10:10.743,0:10:14.260
but Norman Borlaug knew otherwise.

0:10:14.737,0:10:17.535
In his Nobel Prize speech, he said,

0:10:17.535,0:10:22.704
"We may be at high tide now,[br]but ebb tide could soon set in

0:10:22.704,0:10:26.843
if we become complacent[br]and relax our efforts,"

0:10:26.843,0:10:28.766
and that's just what we've done.

0:10:29.342,0:10:34.065
We've contracted our investments[br]in agricultural research

0:10:34.065,0:10:38.687
leaving the job primarily[br]to big agribusiness companies,

0:10:38.687,0:10:41.813
and then we berated them[br]- think Monsanto.

0:10:41.813,0:10:46.525
We've taken to the notion of organic food[br]because it's more natural;

0:10:46.525,0:10:47.983
don't be seduced -

0:10:47.983,0:10:51.785
the primary tenant [br]of organic farming is a prohibition

0:10:51.785,0:10:56.368
on the use of synthetic fertilizer,[br]but manure alone can't do the job;

0:10:56.368,0:10:59.775
if we, the entire world,[br]went organic tomorrow,

0:10:59.775,0:11:03.857
we could probably feed[br]half of our current population.

0:11:05.348,0:11:08.653
So can we feed 10 billion people?

0:11:10.489,0:11:15.354
I think we can, but we have[br]to think and act differently.

0:11:17.063,0:11:22.759
Agriculture is a complex system[br]of water, energy, chemical nutrients,

0:11:22.759,0:11:25.597
environment, of course, people;

0:11:25.597,0:11:29.469
we have to optimize that system as a whole

0:11:29.469,0:11:31.767
and make it more sustainable.

0:11:31.767,0:11:34.980
Very easy to say, hard to do.

0:11:34.980,0:11:37.870
Let me give you some specifics:

0:11:37.870,0:11:40.395
we need to increase the yield

0:11:40.395,0:11:45.160
on the land we already farm[br]using less water.

0:11:45.160,0:11:50.737
One contribution of many[br]is moving high-value crops indoors.

0:11:51.078,0:11:54.714
This is a very modern greenhouse[br]in Southern California;

0:11:54.714,0:11:57.254
tomatoes are growing[br]on strings straight up

0:11:57.254,0:12:02.421
producing five to ten times as much this[br]they produce in open fields,

0:12:02.421,0:12:06.941
as much as 100 kilograms[br]per square meter per year

0:12:06.941,0:12:10.397
using a tenth as much water.

0:12:10.397,0:12:14.829
We can build greenhouses[br]in cities on rooftops,

0:12:16.626,0:12:19.123
and even in the desert[br]with a bit of tweaking,

0:12:19.892,0:12:22.450
but we won't grow our grain under glass.

0:12:23.668,0:12:26.974
Today, farmers distribute

0:12:26.974,0:12:31.200
a hundred million tons[br]of chemical fertilizer

0:12:31.200,0:12:34.195
on their fields each year.

0:12:34.195,0:12:38.263
Much of it runs off to pollute[br]our waterways, killing them;

0:12:38.263,0:12:42.291
figuring out how to deliver the nutrients[br]precisely when they are needed,

0:12:42.291,0:12:46.248
exactly where they're needed[br]is one of the challenges of the future.

0:12:46.248,0:12:48.542
Here's one system, is called fertigation,

0:12:48.542,0:12:53.164
and you can see the nutrients in the water[br]go directly to the roots underground,

0:12:53.164,0:12:55.595
but there's much more to be done.

0:12:55.595,0:12:57.664
Then there's insecticides -

0:12:57.664,0:13:02.191
we use about a billion pounds[br]a year globally,

0:13:02.191,0:13:08.549
to kill pests like this corn earworm,[br]but they also kill beneficial insects.

0:13:08.549,0:13:16.451
Rachel Carson, author of "Silent Spring"[br]that ignited the environmental movement

0:13:16.451,0:13:17.758
dreamed of a time

0:13:17.758,0:13:21.964
that we could do this biologically[br]rather than with toxic chemicals.

0:13:21.964,0:13:26.399
Now we can: take this corn[br]- is called BT corn.

0:13:26.399,0:13:30.061
similar to any other corn[br]except it has one extra gene in it,

0:13:30.061,0:13:35.480
taken from a safe bacterium [br]used as a pesticide by organic farmers

0:13:35.480,0:13:39.486
and put directly[br]into the genome of the plant.

0:13:40.083,0:13:44.093
This is modern genetic modification, GM:

0:13:44.093,0:13:47.805
the plant produces the bacterial protein,

0:13:47.805,0:13:53.513
and it affects only the insects[br]that munch on the plant;

0:13:53.513,0:13:57.654
insecticide use has gone down[br]a lot, worldwide,

0:13:57.654,0:14:01.527
with the use of these plants,[br]with these crops,

0:14:03.477,0:14:07.055
beneficial insects flourish,[br]and farmers' prices come down;

0:14:07.055,0:14:09.868
but there's much, much more[br]that can be done.

0:14:09.868,0:14:13.982
We can look forward to crops[br]that withstand drought,

0:14:13.982,0:14:18.674
that use nitrogen more efficiently,[br]that tolerate heat,

0:14:18.674,0:14:22.597
and they are frankly,[br]more nutritious for us,

0:14:23.857,0:14:31.065
but contemporary[br]genetically modified crops

0:14:31.945,0:14:35.452
are the only ones[br]that have gotten the GMO moniker,

0:14:35.452,0:14:37.038
and that's a fearful word.

0:14:37.038,0:14:40.425
Google it, and you'll be astounded:

0:14:40.865,0:14:44.572
GMOs have been blamed[br]for farmer suicides in India,

0:14:44.572,0:14:49.313
tumors in rats,[br]and every manner of human ill

0:14:49.313,0:14:53.797
from autism to obesity[br]to infertility and cancer.

0:14:55.883,0:15:00.789
Scary - fortunately, none of it is true.

0:15:02.677,0:15:07.333
Indeed, after 25 years[br]of government research,

0:15:07.333,0:15:14.934
the EU published a report, basically[br]summarizing the 25 years of research

0:15:14.934,0:15:18.171
costing upwards of 300 million euros

0:15:18.171,0:15:24.549
by saying very simply the modification[br]of plants by GM techniques

0:15:24.549,0:15:29.619
is no more dangerous than modification[br]of plants by other techniques.

0:15:31.369,0:15:39.615
But the GMO wars rage on[br]fueled by electronic gossip,

0:15:39.615,0:15:44.421
by organizations[br]that exploit GM fears for profit;

0:15:44.421,0:15:48.807
fears sell better than facts.

0:15:50.602,0:15:55.431
Important work on GM crops[br]has been destroyed the world around

0:15:55.431,0:16:00.165
like work on this golden rice,[br]vitamin-A-enriched rice;

0:16:01.811,0:16:04.377
I myself have been picketed,

0:16:04.377,0:16:09.205
verbally abused,[br]subject to endless hate email,

0:16:09.205,0:16:11.934
and even narrowly escaped physical attack,

0:16:11.934,0:16:14.561
all because I keep trying to explain

0:16:14.561,0:16:20.101
the science and the sense[br]behind this amazing revolution.

0:16:21.450,0:16:24.684
We are approaching a tipping point;

0:16:26.484,0:16:32.331
we expect 10 billion people for dinner[br]in the not-too-distant future.

0:16:34.727,0:16:40.243
How we meet their demands for food[br]will again reshape civilization;

0:16:41.513,0:16:46.683
will we continue to ignore facts[br]and cling to fear-based belief systems

0:16:47.703,0:16:52.034
with the glowing embers [br]of poverty-based social instability

0:16:52.604,0:16:56.752
flare into [br]civilization- consuming conflagrations?

0:16:59.159,0:17:05.252
Or will we be able to develop, test, [br]and actually use new technologies?

0:17:07.645,0:17:12.804
Will we be able to realize[br]the knowledge civilizations

0:17:12.804,0:17:14.953
to which we all aspire?

0:17:17.267,0:17:20.148
Will we have the wisdom to invest

0:17:20.148,0:17:25.140
in the scientific[br]and technological innovations

0:17:26.608,0:17:32.759
that can give everyone a livelihood,[br]a seat at the table, and enough to eat?

0:17:34.736,0:17:36.306
I believe we can.

0:17:37.506,0:17:41.419
Will we? I don't know.

0:17:42.358,0:17:43.602
Thank you.

0:17:43.602,0:17:44.902
(Applause)