How to topple a dictator
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0:01 - 0:04Good afternoon. I am proud to be here at TEDxKrakow.
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0:04 - 0:07I'll try to speak a little bit today about a phenomenon
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0:07 - 0:10which can and is actually changing the world,
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0:10 - 0:12and whose name is people power.
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0:12 - 0:15I'll start with the anecdote, or for those of you
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0:15 - 0:19who are Monty Python lovers, a Monty Python type of sketch.
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0:19 - 0:23Here it is. It is December 15, 2010.
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0:23 - 0:26Somebody gives you a bet. You will look at a crystal ball
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0:26 - 0:29and you will see the future. The future will be accurate.
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0:29 - 0:31But you need to share it with the world. Okay?
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0:31 - 0:34Curiosity killed the cat. You take the bet.
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0:34 - 0:36You look at the crystal ball. One hour later,
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0:36 - 0:39you are sitting in a building on the national TV
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0:39 - 0:42in a talkshow, and you tell the story.
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0:42 - 0:47"Before the end of 2011, Ben Ali and Mubarak
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0:47 - 0:50and Gaddafi will be down and prosecuted.
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0:50 - 0:53Saleh of Yemen and Assad of Syria
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0:53 - 0:56would be either challenged or already on their knees.
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0:56 - 0:59Osama bin Laden will be dead,
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0:59 - 1:01and Ratko Mladic will be in the Hague."
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1:01 - 1:05Now, the anchor watches you with a strange gaze on his face,
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1:05 - 1:07and then on the top of it you add,
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1:07 - 1:09"And thousands of the young people from Athens, Madrid
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1:09 - 1:12and New York will demonstrate for social justice,
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1:12 - 1:15claiming that they are inspired with Arabs."
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1:15 - 1:18Next thing you know, two guys in white appear.
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1:18 - 1:21They give you the strange t-shirt,
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1:21 - 1:23take you to the nearest mental institution.
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1:23 - 1:26So I would like to speak a little bit about the phenomenon
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1:26 - 1:29which is behind what already seems to be the very bad year
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1:29 - 1:34for bad guys, and this phenomenon is called people power.
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1:34 - 1:37Well, people power has been there for a while.
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1:37 - 1:40It helped Gandhi kick the Brits from India.
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1:40 - 1:44It helped Martin Luther King win a historic racial struggle.
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1:44 - 1:47It helped local Lech Walesa to kick out
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1:47 - 1:50one million Soviet troops from Poland
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1:50 - 1:53and beginning the end of the Soviet Union as we know it.
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1:53 - 1:56So what's new in it? What seems to be very new,
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1:56 - 1:59which is the idea I would like to share with you today,
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1:59 - 2:03that there is a set of rules and skills which can be learned
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2:03 - 2:08and taught in order to perform successful nonviolent struggle.
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2:08 - 2:11If this is true, we can help these movements.
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2:11 - 2:14Well, first one, analytic skills.
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2:14 - 2:17I'll try where it all started in the Middle East,
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2:17 - 2:21and for so many years we were living with completely the wrong
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2:21 - 2:23perception of the Middle East.
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2:23 - 2:27It was looking like the frozen region, literally a refrigerator,
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2:27 - 2:29and there are only two types of meals there:
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2:29 - 2:32steak, which stands for a Mubarak, Ben Ali-type of
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2:32 - 2:36military police dictatorship, or a potato,
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2:36 - 2:39which stands for Tehran types of theocracies.
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2:39 - 2:42And everybody was amazed when the refrigerator opened
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2:42 - 2:46and millions of young, mainly secular people step out
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2:46 - 2:50to do the change. Guess what? They didn't watch the demographics.
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2:50 - 2:53What is the average age of Egyptians? 24.
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2:53 - 2:56How long was Mubarak in power? 31.
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2:56 - 2:59So this system: just obsolete. They expired,
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2:59 - 3:02and young people of the Arab World have awakened
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3:02 - 3:06one morning and understood that power lies in their hands.
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3:06 - 3:09The rest is the year in front of us. And guess what?
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3:09 - 3:12The same Generation Epsilon with their rules,
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3:12 - 3:15with their tools, with their games and with their language,
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3:15 - 3:19which sounds a little bit strange to me. I am 38 now.
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3:19 - 3:22And can you look at the age of the people on the streets of Europe?
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3:22 - 3:27It seems that Generation Epsilon is coming.
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3:27 - 3:30Now let me set another example.
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3:30 - 3:32I'm meeting different people throughout the world,
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3:32 - 3:34and they are, you know, academics and professors
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3:34 - 3:37and doctors, and they will always talk conditions.
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3:37 - 3:41They will say, "People power will work only if the regime is not too oppressive."
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3:41 - 3:44They will say, "People power will work if the annual income
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3:44 - 3:47of the country is between X and Z."
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3:47 - 3:50They will say, "People power will work only if there is a foreign pressure."
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3:50 - 3:53They will say, "People power will work only if there is no oil."
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3:53 - 3:55And, I mean, there is a set of conditions.
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3:55 - 4:00Well, the news here is that your skills [that you] bring in the conflict
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4:00 - 4:03seem to be more important than the conditions,
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4:03 - 4:06namely skills of unity, planning,
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4:06 - 4:08and maintaining nonviolent discipline.
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4:08 - 4:10Let me give you the example.
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4:10 - 4:11I am coming from a country called Serbia.
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4:11 - 4:16It took us 10 years to unite 18 opposition party leaders,
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4:16 - 4:19with their big egos, behind one single candidate
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4:19 - 4:22against Balkan dictator Slobodan Milosevic.
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4:22 - 4:25Guess what? That was the day of his defeat.
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4:25 - 4:28You look at the Egyptians, they fire on Tahrir Square,
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4:28 - 4:30they get rid of their individual symbols.
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4:30 - 4:33They appear on the street only with the flag of Egypt.
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4:33 - 4:35I will give you a counter-example.
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4:35 - 4:39You see nine presidential candidates running against Lukashenko.
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4:39 - 4:40You will know the outcome.
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4:40 - 4:43So unity is a big thing, and this can be achieved.
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4:43 - 4:46Same with planning. Somebody has lied to you
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4:46 - 4:50about the successful and spontaneous nonviolent revolution?
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4:50 - 4:52That thing doesn't exist in the world.
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4:52 - 4:55Whenever you see young people in front of the road
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4:55 - 4:57trying to fraternize with the police or military,
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4:57 - 5:00somebody was thinking about it before.
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5:00 - 5:02Now, at the end, nonviolent discipline,
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5:02 - 5:04and this is probably the game-changer.
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5:04 - 5:09If you maintain nonviolent discipline, you will exclusively win.
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5:09 - 5:11You have 100,000 people in a nonviolent march,
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5:11 - 5:14and one idiot or agent provocateur is throwing stones,
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5:14 - 5:17guess what takes all the cameras? That one guy.
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5:17 - 5:19One single act of violence can literally
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5:19 - 5:22destroy your movement.
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5:22 - 5:24Now let me move to another place.
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5:24 - 5:26It's selection of strategies and tactics.
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5:26 - 5:30There are certain rules in nonviolent struggle you may follow.
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5:30 - 5:31First, you start small.
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5:31 - 5:34Second, you pick the battles you can win.
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5:34 - 5:37It's only 200 of us in this room.
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5:37 - 5:39We won't call for the March of Millions.
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5:39 - 5:42But what if we organize spraying graffiti throughout the night
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5:42 - 5:45all over Krakow city? The city will know.
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5:45 - 5:49So we pick the tactics which accommodates to the event,
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5:49 - 5:53especially this thing we call the small tactics of dispersion.
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5:53 - 5:57They're very useful in a violent oppression.
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5:57 - 5:59We are actually witnessing the picture
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5:59 - 6:01of one of the best tactics ever used.
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6:01 - 6:04It was on Tahrir Square, where the international community
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6:04 - 6:08was constantly frightened that the Islamists
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6:08 - 6:10will overtake the revolution. Well, they've organized
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6:10 - 6:13Christians protecting Muslims, who are there praying,
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6:13 - 6:16Coptic wedding cheered by thousands of Muslims.
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6:16 - 6:18The world has just changed the picture,
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6:18 - 6:21but somebody was thinking about this previously.
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6:21 - 6:24So there are so many things you can do instead of
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6:24 - 6:27getting into one place, shouting and
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6:27 - 6:30showing off in front of the security forces.
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6:30 - 6:34Now there is also another very important dynamic,
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6:34 - 6:37and this is a dynamic normally analytics don't see.
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6:37 - 6:41This is dynamics between fear and apathy on one side
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6:41 - 6:44and enthusiasm and humor on another side.
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6:44 - 6:46So it works like in a video game.
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6:46 - 6:48You have a fear high, you have status quo.
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6:48 - 6:52You have enthusiasm higher, you see fear starting to melt.
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6:52 - 6:54Day two, you see people running towards police
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6:54 - 6:57instead of from the police.
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6:57 - 7:00In Egypt, you can tell that something is happening there.
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7:00 - 7:03And then it's about humor. Humor is such a powerful
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7:03 - 7:06game-changer, and of course it was very big in Poland.
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7:06 - 7:09And you know, we were just a small group of crazy students
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7:09 - 7:12in Serbia when we made this big skit.
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7:12 - 7:15We put the big petrol barrel with a
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7:15 - 7:18portrait picture of Mr. President on it
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7:18 - 7:20in the middle of the Main Street. There was a hole on the top
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7:20 - 7:23so you could literally come, put a coin in,
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7:23 - 7:27get a baseball bat, and pow, hit his face.
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7:27 - 7:30Sounds loud. And within the minutes, we were sitting
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7:30 - 7:33in a nearby cafe having coffee, and there was
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7:33 - 7:36a queue of people waiting to do this lovely thing.
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7:36 - 7:39Well, that's just the beginning of the show.
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7:39 - 7:41The real show starts when the police appears.
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7:41 - 7:45What will they do? Arrest us? We are nowhere to be seen.
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7:45 - 7:49We are three blocks away observing it from our espresso bar.
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7:49 - 7:52Arrest the shoppers with kids? Doesn't make sense.
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7:52 - 7:55Of course, you could bet they have done the most stupid thing:
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7:55 - 7:57They arrested the barrel. And now the picture
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7:57 - 8:00of the smashed face on the barrel with the policeman
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8:00 - 8:03dragging them to the police car, that was the best day
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8:03 - 8:06for the photographers from newspapers that they ever will have.
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8:06 - 8:09So, I mean, these are the things you can do,
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8:09 - 8:10and you can always use the humor.
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8:10 - 8:14There is also one big thing about the humor: It really hurts,
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8:14 - 8:18because these guys really are taking themselves too seriously.
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8:18 - 8:20When you start to mock them, it hurts.
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8:20 - 8:25Now, everybody is talking about His Majesty, the Internet,
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8:25 - 8:29and it is also a very useful skill, but don't rush
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8:29 - 8:32to label things like Facebook Revolution, Twitter Revolution.
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8:32 - 8:36Don't mix tools with the substance.
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8:36 - 8:39It is true that the Internet and new media are very useful
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8:39 - 8:42in making things faster and cheaper.
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8:42 - 8:45They make it also a bit safer for the participants
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8:45 - 8:47because they give the part of anonymity.
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8:47 - 8:51We are watching the great example of something else the Internet can do.
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8:51 - 8:56It can put the price tag of state-sponsored violence over nonviolent protesters.
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8:56 - 8:58This is a famous group, We are all Khaled Said,
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8:58 - 9:01made by Wael Ghonim in Egypt and his friend.
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9:01 - 9:04This is the mutilated face of the guy who was beaten by the police.
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9:04 - 9:07This is how he became the public, and this is what probably
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9:07 - 9:11became the straw which broke the camel's back.
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9:11 - 9:12But here is also the bad news.
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9:12 - 9:15The nonviolent struggle is won in the real world,
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9:15 - 9:19in the streets. You will never change your society
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9:19 - 9:22towards democracy or economics
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9:22 - 9:24if you sit down and click.
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9:24 - 9:26There are risks to be taken and there are living people
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9:26 - 9:28who are winning the struggle.
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9:28 - 9:32Well, million dollar question: What will happen in the Arab World?
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9:32 - 9:35And though young people from the Arab World
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9:35 - 9:38were pretty successful in bringing down three dictators,
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9:38 - 9:42shaking the region, kind of persuading clever kings
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9:42 - 9:45from Jordan and Morocco doing substantial reforms,
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9:45 - 9:49it is yet to be seen what will be the outcome,
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9:49 - 9:53whether the Egyptians and Tunisians will make it through the transition
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9:53 - 9:57or this will end in bloody ethnic and religious conflict,
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9:57 - 10:01whether the Syrians will maintain nonviolent discipline,
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10:01 - 10:04faced with the brutal daily violence
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10:04 - 10:06which kills thousands already,
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10:06 - 10:08or they will slip into violent struggle
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10:08 - 10:12and make ugly civil war.
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10:12 - 10:16Will these revolutions be whole like through the transitions
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10:16 - 10:18to democracy or be overtaken by military
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10:18 - 10:22or extremists of all kinds? We cannot tell.
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10:22 - 10:25Same works for the Western sector, where you can see
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10:25 - 10:28all of these excited young people protesting around the world,
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10:28 - 10:31occupying this, occupying that.
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10:31 - 10:34Are they going to become the world wave?
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10:34 - 10:38Are they going to find their skills, their enthusiasm,
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10:38 - 10:41and their strategy to find what they really want
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10:41 - 10:44and push for the reform, or will they just stay
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10:44 - 10:50complaining about the endless list of the things they hate?
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10:50 - 10:53This is the difference between two towns.
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10:53 - 10:56Now, what [do] the statistics have?
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10:56 - 10:58My friend's book, Maria Stephan's book,
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10:58 - 11:01talks a lot about violent and nonviolent struggle,
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11:01 - 11:04and there are some shocking data.
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11:04 - 11:06If you look at the last 35 years
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11:06 - 11:09and different social transitions from dictatorship to democracy,
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11:09 - 11:13you will see that out of 67 different cases,
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11:13 - 11:16in 50 of these cases it was nonviolent struggle
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11:16 - 11:20which was the key power.
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11:20 - 11:22This is one more reason to look at this phenomenon.
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11:22 - 11:25This is one more reason to look at the Generation Epsilon,
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11:25 - 11:29enough for me to give them credit and hope
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11:29 - 11:33that they will find their skills and their courage
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11:33 - 11:35to use the nonviolent struggle
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11:35 - 11:37and thus fix at least a part of the mess
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11:37 - 11:39our generation is making in this world.
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11:39 - 11:43Thank you. (Applause)
- Title:
- How to topple a dictator
- Speaker:
- Srdja Popovic
- Description:
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2011 was a year of extraordinary people-powered resistance, starting with Arab Spring and spreading across the world. How did this resistance work so well? Srdja Popovic (who led the nonviolent movement that took down Milosevic in Serbia in 2000) lays out the plans, skills and tools each movement needs -- from nonviolent tactics to a sense of humor.
(Filmed at TEDxKrakow.) - Video Language:
- English
- Team:
- closed TED
- Project:
- TEDTalks
- Duration:
- 12:02
Brian Greene edited English subtitles for How to topple a dictator | ||
Camille Martínez edited English subtitles for How to topple a dictator | ||
Krystian Aparta edited English subtitles for How to topple a dictator | ||
Krystian Aparta commented on English subtitles for How to topple a dictator | ||
Krystian Aparta edited English subtitles for How to topple a dictator | ||
Krystian Aparta edited English subtitles for How to topple a dictator | ||
Morton Bast edited English subtitles for How to topple a dictator | ||
Morton Bast edited English subtitles for How to topple a dictator |
Krystian Aparta
The English transcript was updated on 2/12/2015.