How to topple a dictator
-
0:01 - 0:04Good afternoon, I'm proud
to be here at TEDxKrakow. -
0:04 - 0:07I'll try to speak a little bit today
about a phenomenon -
0:07 - 0:10which can, and actually is
changing the world, -
0:10 - 0:12and whose name is people power.
-
0:12 - 0:14I'll start with an anecdote,
-
0:14 - 0:17or for those of you
who are Monty Python lovers, -
0:17 - 0:19a Monty Python type of sketch.
-
0:19 - 0:20Here it is.
-
0:20 - 0:23It is December 15, 2010.
-
0:23 - 0:26Somebody gives you a bet:
you will look at a crystal ball, -
0:26 - 0:29and you will see the future;
the future will be accurate. -
0:29 - 0:31But you need to share it with the world.
-
0:31 - 0:34OK, curiosity killed the cat,
you take the bet, -
0:34 - 0:36you look at the crystal ball.
-
0:36 - 0:39One hour later, you're sitting
in a building of the national TV, -
0:39 - 0:42in a top show, and you tell the story.
-
0:42 - 0:45Before the end of 2011,
-
0:45 - 0:49Ben Ali, and Mubarak,
and Gaddafi would be down, -
0:49 - 0:50and prosecuted.
-
0:51 - 0:53Saleh of Yemen and Assad of Syria
-
0:53 - 0:57would be either challenged,
or already on their knees. -
0:57 - 0:59Osama bin Laden would be dead,
-
0:59 - 1:01and Ratko Mladic would be in the Hague.
-
1:01 - 1:05Now, the anchor watches you
with a strange gaze on his face. -
1:05 - 1:07And then, on top of it you add:
-
1:07 - 1:11"And thousands of young people
from Athens, Madrid and New York -
1:11 - 1:15will demonstrate for social justice,
claiming they are inspired by Arabs." -
1:16 - 1:19Next thing you know,
two guys in white appear, -
1:19 - 1:21they give you the strange t-shirt,
-
1:21 - 1:23take you to the nearest
mental institution. -
1:23 - 1:25So I would like to speak a little bit
-
1:25 - 1:29about the phenomenon which is behind
what already seems to be -
1:29 - 1:31a very bad year for bad guys.
-
1:31 - 1:34And this phenomenon
is called people power. -
1:35 - 1:37Well, people power
has been there for a while. -
1:37 - 1:40It helped Gandhi kick
the Brits from India, -
1:40 - 1:44it helped Martin Luther King
win his historic racial struggle. -
1:44 - 1:46It helped a local, Lech Walesa,
-
1:46 - 1:50to kick out one million
Soviet troops from Poland, -
1:50 - 1:53and in beginning the end
of the Soviet Union as we know it. -
1:53 - 1:55So what's new in it?
-
1:55 - 1:57What seems to be very new,
-
1:57 - 1:59which is the idea I would like
to share with you today, -
1:59 - 2:02is that there is a set of rules and skills
-
2:02 - 2:04which can be learned and taught
-
2:04 - 2:08in order to perform
successful nonviolent struggle. -
2:08 - 2:10If this is true, we can help
these movements. -
2:12 - 2:14Well, the first one - analytic skills.
-
2:14 - 2:17I'll try where it all started
in the Middle East. -
2:17 - 2:19And for so many years,
-
2:19 - 2:23we were living with a completely wrong
perception of the Middle East. -
2:23 - 2:25It was looking like the frozen region.
-
2:25 - 2:27Literally a refrigerator.
-
2:27 - 2:29And there were only
two types of meal there. -
2:29 - 2:35Steak, which stands for a Mubarak-Ben Ali
type of military police dictatorship, -
2:35 - 2:39or a potato, which stands for
a Tehran type of theocracies. -
2:39 - 2:42And everybody was amazed
when the refrigerator opened, -
2:42 - 2:45and millions of young,
mainly secular people -
2:45 - 2:47stepped out to do the change.
-
2:47 - 2:51Guess what - they didn't watch
the demographics. -
2:51 - 2:53What is the average age
of an Egyptian? 24. -
2:53 - 2:56How long was Mubarak in power? 31.
-
2:56 - 2:59So, this system was just
obsolete, they expired. -
2:59 - 3:03And young people of the Arab world
have awakened one morning, -
3:03 - 3:06and understood that power
lies in their hands. -
3:06 - 3:08The rest is the year in front of us.
-
3:08 - 3:11And guess what? The same Generation Y,
-
3:11 - 3:14with their rules, with their tools,
with their games, -
3:14 - 3:17and with their language,
which sounds a little bit strange to me. -
3:17 - 3:19I'm 38 now.
-
3:19 - 3:23And can you look at the age
of the people on the streets of Europe? -
3:23 - 3:27It seems that Generation Y is coming.
-
3:27 - 3:30Now, let me set another example.
-
3:30 - 3:32I'm meeting different people
throughout the world, -
3:32 - 3:35and they are, you know, academics,
and professors, and doctors, -
3:35 - 3:37and they will always talk conditions.
-
3:37 - 3:41They will say: "People power will work
only if the regime is not too oppressive." -
3:41 - 3:43They will say: "People power will work,
-
3:43 - 3:47if the annual income of the country
is between X and Z." -
3:47 - 3:51They will say: "People power will work
only if there is a foreign pressure." -
3:51 - 3:54They will say: "People power
will work only if there is no oil." -
3:54 - 3:57And, I mean, there is a set of conditions.
-
3:57 - 4:01Well, the news here
is that your skills during the conflict -
4:01 - 4:03seem to be more important
than the conditions. -
4:04 - 4:08Namely, the skills of unity, planning,
and maintaining nonviolent discipline. -
4:08 - 4:10Let me give you an example.
-
4:10 - 4:12I come from a country called Serbia.
-
4:12 - 4:16It took us 10 years to unite
18 opposition party leaders, -
4:16 - 4:20with their big egos,
behind one single candidate -
4:20 - 4:22against the Balkan dictator
Slobodan Milosevic. -
4:22 - 4:25Guess what? That was
the day of his defeat. -
4:25 - 4:28You look at the Egyptians,
they fight on Tahrir Square, -
4:28 - 4:30they get rid of their individual symbols,
-
4:30 - 4:33they appear on the street
only with the flag of Egypt. -
4:33 - 4:35I will give you a counter-example.
-
4:35 - 4:39You see nine presidential candidates
running against Lukashenko, -
4:39 - 4:40you all know the outcome.
-
4:40 - 4:42So unity is a big thing.
-
4:42 - 4:44And this can be achieved.
-
4:44 - 4:45Same with planning.
-
4:45 - 4:46Somebody has lied to you
-
4:46 - 4:50about the successful and spontaneous
nonviolent revolution. -
4:50 - 4:52That thing doesn't exist in the world.
-
4:52 - 4:55Whenever you see young people
in front of the row -
4:55 - 4:57trying to fraternize
with the police or military, -
4:58 - 5:00somebody was thinking about it before.
-
5:00 - 5:02Now, at the end, nonviolent discipline.
-
5:02 - 5:05And this is probably the game-changer.
-
5:05 - 5:07If you maintain nonviolent discipline,
-
5:07 - 5:09you'll exclusively win.
-
5:09 - 5:12You have 100,000 people
in a nonviolent march, -
5:12 - 5:14one idiot or agent-provocateur
throwing a stone. -
5:14 - 5:16Guess what takes all the cameras.
-
5:16 - 5:17That one guy.
-
5:17 - 5:22One single act of violence
can literally destroy your movement. -
5:22 - 5:24Now, let me move to another place.
-
5:24 - 5:26It's the selection
of strategies and tactics. -
5:26 - 5:30There are certain rules
in nonviolent struggle you may follow. -
5:30 - 5:32First, you start small.
-
5:32 - 5:35Second, you pick the battles you can win.
-
5:35 - 5:37It's only 200 of us in this room.
-
5:37 - 5:40We won't call for the march of a million.
-
5:40 - 5:43But what if we organized the spraying
of graffiti throughout the night, -
5:43 - 5:44all over Krakow.
-
5:44 - 5:46The city will know.
-
5:46 - 5:49So, we pick tactics
accommodated to the event, -
5:49 - 5:53especially this thing we call
the small tactics of dispersion. -
5:53 - 5:57They're very useful in violent oppression.
-
5:57 - 6:01We are actually witnessing the picture
of one of the best tactics ever used. -
6:01 - 6:03It was on Tahrir square,
-
6:03 - 6:07where the international community
was constantly frightened -
6:07 - 6:10that, you know, the Islamists
will overtake the revolution. -
6:10 - 6:11What they organized --
-
6:11 - 6:14Christians protecting Muslims
where they are praying, -
6:14 - 6:16a Coptic wedding cheered
by thousands of Muslims, -
6:16 - 6:18the world has just changed the picture,
-
6:18 - 6:21but somebody was thinking
about this previously. -
6:21 - 6:23So there are so many things you can do
-
6:23 - 6:26instead of getting into one place,
-
6:26 - 6:30shouting, and you know, showing off
in front of the security forces. -
6:31 - 6:34Now, there is also another
very important dynamic. -
6:34 - 6:37And this is a dynamic
that analysts normally don't see. -
6:37 - 6:41This is the dynamic between
fear and apathy on the one side, -
6:41 - 6:44and enthusiasm and humor on another side.
-
6:44 - 6:46So, it works like in a video game.
-
6:46 - 6:48You have the fear high,
you have status quo. -
6:48 - 6:50You have the enthusiasm higher,
-
6:50 - 6:52you see the fear is starting to melt.
-
6:52 - 6:55Day two, you see people
running towards the police -
6:55 - 6:57instead of from the police, in Egypt.
-
6:57 - 7:00You can tell that something
is happening there. -
7:00 - 7:02And then, it's about the humor.
-
7:02 - 7:04Humor is such a powerful game-changer,
-
7:04 - 7:06and of course, it was very big in Poland.
-
7:06 - 7:10You know, we were just a small group
of crazy students in Serbia -
7:10 - 7:12when we made this big skit.
-
7:12 - 7:15We put the big petrol barrel
-
7:15 - 7:19with a portrait of Mr. President on it,
in the middle of the Main Street. -
7:19 - 7:21There was a hole in the top.
-
7:21 - 7:24So you could literally come,
put a coin in, -
7:24 - 7:27get a baseball bat, and hit his face.
-
7:27 - 7:29Sounds loud.
-
7:29 - 7:30And within minutes,
-
7:30 - 7:33we were sitting in a nearby café
having coffee, -
7:33 - 7:36and there was a queue of people
waiting to do this lovely thing. -
7:37 - 7:39Well, that's just
the beginning of the show. -
7:39 - 7:41The real show starts
when the police appears. -
7:41 - 7:42(Laughter)
-
7:42 - 7:43"What will they do?"
-
7:43 - 7:45Arrest us? We were nowhere to be seen.
-
7:45 - 7:49We were like three blocks away,
observing it from our espresso bar. -
7:49 - 7:51Arrest the shoppers, with kids?
-
7:51 - 7:52Doesn't make sense.
-
7:52 - 7:55Of course, you could bet,
they did the most stupid thing. -
7:55 - 7:56They arrested the barrel.
-
7:57 - 8:00And now, the picture
of the smashed face on the barrel, -
8:00 - 8:02with the policemen
dragging it to the police car, -
8:02 - 8:05that was the best day
for newspaper photographers -
8:05 - 8:06that they will ever have.
-
8:07 - 8:09So, I mean, these are
the things you can do. -
8:09 - 8:10And you can always use humor.
-
8:11 - 8:13There is also one big thing about humor,
-
8:13 - 8:14it really hurts.
-
8:14 - 8:18Because these guys really are
taking themselves too seriously. -
8:18 - 8:20When you start to mock them, it hurts.
-
8:21 - 8:25Now, everybody is talking
about His Majesty, the Internet, -
8:25 - 8:27and it is also a very useful skill.
-
8:27 - 8:31But don't rush to label things
like "a Facebook Revolution," -
8:31 - 8:33"Twitter Revolution."
-
8:33 - 8:35Don't [confuse] the tools
with the substance. -
8:36 - 8:39It is true that the Internet
and the new media are very useful -
8:39 - 8:42in making things faster and cheaper.
-
8:42 - 8:45They also make it a bit safer
for the participants, -
8:45 - 8:47because they give partial anonymity.
-
8:47 - 8:51We're watching the great example
of something else the Internet can do. -
8:51 - 8:54It can put the price tag
of state-sponsored violence -
8:54 - 8:56over a nonviolent protester.
-
8:56 - 8:58This is the famous group
"We are all Khaled Said," -
8:58 - 9:01made by Wael Ghonim
in Egypt, and his friend. -
9:01 - 9:05This is the mutilated face of the guy
who was beaten by the police. -
9:05 - 9:07This is how he became known to the public,
-
9:07 - 9:10and this is what probably became
the straw that broke the camel's back. -
9:11 - 9:13But here is also the bad news.
-
9:13 - 9:16The nonviolent struggle is won
in the real world, in the streets. -
9:16 - 9:20You will never change
your society towards democracy, -
9:20 - 9:24or, you know, the economy,
if you sit down and click. -
9:24 - 9:25There are risks to be taken,
-
9:25 - 9:28and there are living people
who are winning the struggle. -
9:29 - 9:31Well, the million-dollar question.
-
9:31 - 9:33What will happen in the Arab world?
-
9:33 - 9:35And though young people
from the Arab world -
9:35 - 9:38were pretty successful
in bringing down three dictators, -
9:38 - 9:40shaking the region,
-
9:40 - 9:44kind of persuading the clever kings
from Jordan and Morocco -
9:44 - 9:45to do substantial reforms,
-
9:45 - 9:49it is yet to be seen
what will be the outcome. -
9:49 - 9:53Whether the Egyptians and Tunisians
will make it through the transition, -
9:53 - 9:57or this will end in bloody
ethnic and religious conflicts, -
9:57 - 10:02whether the Syrians
will maintain nonviolent discipline, -
10:02 - 10:06faced with a brutal daily violence
which kills thousands already, -
10:06 - 10:08or they will slip into violent struggle
-
10:08 - 10:11and make ugly civil war.
-
10:13 - 10:17Will these revolutions be pushed
through the transitions and democracy -
10:17 - 10:20or be overtaken by the military
or extremists of all kinds? -
10:21 - 10:22We cannot tell.
-
10:23 - 10:25The same works for the Western sector,
-
10:25 - 10:27where you can see
all these excited young people -
10:27 - 10:31protesting around the world,
occupying this, occupying that. -
10:32 - 10:34Are they going to become the world wave?
-
10:34 - 10:40Are they going to find their skills,
their enthusiasm, and their strategy -
10:40 - 10:43to find what they really want
and push for the reform, -
10:43 - 10:47or will they just stay complaining
about the endless list -
10:48 - 10:49of the things they hate?
-
10:50 - 10:53This is the difference
between the two paths. -
10:53 - 10:55Now, what do the statistics have?
-
10:56 - 10:58My friend Maria Stephan's book
-
10:58 - 11:01talks a lot about violent
and nonviolent struggle, -
11:01 - 11:04and there are some shocking data.
-
11:04 - 11:08If you look at the last 35 years
and different social transitions, -
11:08 - 11:10from dictatorship to democracy,
-
11:10 - 11:13you will see that,
out of 67 different cases, -
11:13 - 11:17in 50 of these cases
it was nonviolent struggle -
11:17 - 11:19which was the key power.
-
11:20 - 11:22This is one more reason
to look at this phenomenon, -
11:22 - 11:25this is one more reason
to look at Generation Y. -
11:26 - 11:28Enough for me to give them credit,
-
11:28 - 11:33and hope that they will find their skills
and their courage -
11:33 - 11:35to use nonviolent struggle
-
11:35 - 11:40and thus fix at least a part of the mess
our generation is making in this world. -
11:40 - 11:41Thank you.
-
11:41 - 11:43(Applause)
- Title:
- How to topple a dictator
- Speaker:
- Srdja Popovic
- Description:
-
2011 was a year of extraordinary people-powered resistance, starting with Arab Spring and spreading across the world. How did this resistance work so well? Srdja Popovic (who led the nonviolent movement that took down Milosevic in Serbia in 2000) lays out the plans, skills and tools each movement needs -- from nonviolent tactics to a sense of humor.
(Filmed at TEDxKrakow.) - Video Language:
- English
- Team:
- closed TED
- Project:
- TEDTalks
- Duration:
- 12:02
Brian Greene edited English subtitles for How to topple a dictator | ||
Camille Martínez edited English subtitles for How to topple a dictator | ||
Krystian Aparta edited English subtitles for How to topple a dictator | ||
Krystian Aparta commented on English subtitles for How to topple a dictator | ||
Krystian Aparta edited English subtitles for How to topple a dictator | ||
Krystian Aparta edited English subtitles for How to topple a dictator | ||
Morton Bast edited English subtitles for How to topple a dictator | ||
Morton Bast edited English subtitles for How to topple a dictator |
Krystian Aparta
The English transcript was updated on 2/12/2015.