The state of the climate — and what we might do about it
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0:00 - 0:04We are at a remarkable moment in time.
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0:04 - 0:07We face over the next two decades
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0:07 - 0:09two fundamental transformations
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0:09 - 0:12that will determine whether the next 100 years
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0:12 - 0:17is the best of centuries or the worst of centuries.
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0:17 - 0:19Let me illustrate with an example.
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0:19 - 0:23I first visited Beijing 25 years ago
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0:23 - 0:26to teach at the People's University of China.
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0:26 - 0:28China was getting serious about market economics
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0:28 - 0:31and about university education,
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0:31 - 0:35so they decided to call in the foreign experts.
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0:35 - 0:37Like most other people,
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0:37 - 0:40I moved around Beijing by bicycle.
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0:40 - 0:42Apart from dodging the occasional vehicle,
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0:42 - 0:45it was a safe and easy way to get around.
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0:45 - 0:47Cycling in Beijing now
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0:47 - 0:49is a completely different prospect.
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0:49 - 0:53The roads are jammed by cars and trucks.
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0:53 - 0:54The air is dangerously polluted
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0:54 - 0:58from the burning of coal and diesel.
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0:58 - 1:00When I was there last in the spring,
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1:00 - 1:03there was an advisory for people of my age —
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1:03 - 1:05over 65 —
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1:05 - 1:08to stay indoors and not move much.
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1:08 - 1:10How did this come about?
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1:10 - 1:13It came from the way in which
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1:13 - 1:15Beijing has grown as a city.
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1:15 - 1:17It's doubled over those 25 years, more than doubled,
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1:17 - 1:19from 10 million to 20 million.
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1:19 - 1:21It's become a sprawling urban area
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1:21 - 1:25dependent on dirty fuel, dirty energy,
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1:25 - 1:27particularly coal.
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1:27 - 1:32China burns half the world's coal each year,
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1:32 - 1:36and that's why, it is a key reason why,
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1:36 - 1:38it is the world's largest emitter
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1:38 - 1:40of greenhouse gases.
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1:40 - 1:43At the same time, we have to recognize
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1:43 - 1:46that in that period China has grown remarkably.
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1:46 - 1:48It has become the world's second largest economy.
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1:48 - 1:50Hundreds of millions of people
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1:50 - 1:52have been lifted out of poverty.
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1:52 - 1:54That's really important.
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1:54 - 1:56But at the same time, the people of China
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1:56 - 1:58are asking the question:
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1:58 - 1:59What's the value of this growth
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1:59 - 2:02if our cities are unlivable?
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2:02 - 2:04They've analyzed, diagnosed
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2:04 - 2:07that this is an unsustainable path of growth
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2:07 - 2:09and development.
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2:09 - 2:12China's planning to scale back coal.
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2:12 - 2:17It's looking to build its cities in different ways.
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2:17 - 2:19Now, the growth of China
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2:19 - 2:23is part of a dramatic change, fundamental change,
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2:23 - 2:26in the structure of the world economy.
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2:26 - 2:29Just 25 years ago, the developing countries,
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2:29 - 2:30the poorer countries of the world,
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2:30 - 2:34were, notwithstanding being
the vast majority of the people, -
2:34 - 2:36they accounted for only about a third
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2:36 - 2:38of the world's output.
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2:38 - 2:40Now it's more than half;
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2:40 - 2:4325 years from now, it will probably be two thirds
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2:43 - 2:46from the countries that we saw 25 years ago
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2:46 - 2:47as developing.
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2:47 - 2:49That's a remarkable change.
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2:49 - 2:51It means that most countries around the world,
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2:51 - 2:53rich or poor, are going to be facing
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2:53 - 2:55the two fundamental transformations
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2:55 - 2:58that I want to talk about and highlight.
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2:58 - 3:01Now, the first of these transformations
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3:01 - 3:03is the basic structural change
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3:03 - 3:05of the economies and societies
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3:05 - 3:07that I've already begun to illustrate
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3:07 - 3:10through the description of Beijing.
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3:10 - 3:13Fifty percent now in urban areas.
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3:13 - 3:17That's going to go to 70 percent in 2050.
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3:17 - 3:19Over the next two decades, we'll see
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3:19 - 3:22the demand for energy rise by 40 percent,
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3:22 - 3:26and the growth in the economy and in the population
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3:26 - 3:29is putting increasing pressure on our land,
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3:29 - 3:33on our water and on our forests.
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3:33 - 3:36This is profound structural change.
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3:36 - 3:38If we manage it in a negligent
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3:38 - 3:40or a shortsighted way,
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3:40 - 3:44we will create waste, pollution, congestion,
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3:44 - 3:48destruction of land and forests.
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3:48 - 3:50If we think of those three areas that I have illustrated
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3:50 - 3:54with my numbers — cities, energy, land —
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3:54 - 3:56if we manage all that badly,
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3:56 - 3:58then the outlook for the lives and livelihoods
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3:58 - 4:00of the people around the world
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4:00 - 4:03would be poor and damaged.
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4:03 - 4:04And more than that,
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4:04 - 4:08the emissions of greenhouse gases would rise,
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4:08 - 4:12with immense risks to our climate.
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4:12 - 4:14Concentrations of greenhouse gases
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4:14 - 4:17in the atmosphere are already
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4:17 - 4:20higher than they've been for millions of years.
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4:20 - 4:24If we go on increasing those concentrations,
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4:24 - 4:27we risk temperatures over the next century or so
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4:27 - 4:29that we have not seen on this planet
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4:29 - 4:32for tens of millions of years.
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4:32 - 4:34We've been around as Homo sapiens —
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4:34 - 4:37that's a rather generous definition, sapiens —
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4:37 - 4:40for perhaps a quarter of a million
years, a quarter of a million. -
4:40 - 4:41We risk temperatures we haven't seen
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4:41 - 4:46for tens of millions of years over a century.
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4:46 - 4:48That would transform the relationship
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4:48 - 4:52between human beings and the planet.
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4:52 - 4:57It would lead to changing deserts,
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4:57 - 5:00changing rivers, changing patterns of hurricanes,
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5:00 - 5:02changing sea levels,
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5:02 - 5:04hundreds of millions of people,
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5:04 - 5:07perhaps billions of people who would have to move,
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5:07 - 5:09and if we've learned anything from history,
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5:09 - 5:12that means severe and extended conflict.
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5:12 - 5:14And we couldn't just turn it off.
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5:14 - 5:16You can't make a peace treaty with the planet.
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5:16 - 5:18You can't negotiate with the laws of physics.
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5:18 - 5:20You're in there. You're stuck.
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5:20 - 5:22Those are the stakes we're playing for,
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5:22 - 5:24and that's why we have to make
this second transformation, -
5:24 - 5:26the climate transformation,
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5:26 - 5:28and move to a low-carbon economy.
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5:28 - 5:31Now, the first of these transformations
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5:31 - 5:32is going to happen anyway.
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5:32 - 5:34We have to decide whether to do it well or badly,
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5:34 - 5:36the economic, or structural, transformation.
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5:36 - 5:38But the second of the transformations,
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5:38 - 5:42the climate transformations, we have to decide to do.
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5:42 - 5:45Those two transformations face us
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5:45 - 5:47in the next two decades.
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5:47 - 5:50The next two decades are decisive
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5:50 - 5:53for what we have to do.
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5:53 - 5:54Now, the more I've thought about this,
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5:54 - 5:56the two transformations coming together,
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5:56 - 5:58the more I've come to realize
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5:58 - 6:01that this is an enormous opportunity.
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6:01 - 6:03It's an opportunity which we can use
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6:03 - 6:07or it's an opportunity which we can lose.
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6:07 - 6:09And let me explain through those three key areas
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6:09 - 6:12that I've identified: cities, energy and land.
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6:12 - 6:14And let me start with cities.
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6:14 - 6:18I've already described the problems of Beijing:
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6:18 - 6:21pollution, congestion, waste and so on.
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6:21 - 6:25Surely we recognize that in many of our cities
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6:25 - 6:26around the world.
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6:26 - 6:29Now, with cities, like life but particularly cities,
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6:29 - 6:32you have to think ahead.
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6:32 - 6:33The cities that are going to be built —
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6:33 - 6:35and there are many, and many big ones —
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6:35 - 6:37we have to think of how to design them
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6:37 - 6:38in a compact way
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6:38 - 6:42so we can save travel time
and we can save energy. -
6:42 - 6:46The cities that already are
there, well established, -
6:46 - 6:49we have to think about renewal
and investment in them -
6:49 - 6:51so that we can connect ourselves much better
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6:51 - 6:54within those cities, and make it easier,
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6:54 - 6:57encourage more people, to live closer to the center.
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6:57 - 7:00We've got examples building around the world
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7:00 - 7:02of the kinds of ways in which we can do that.
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7:02 - 7:06The bus rapid transport system in Bogotá in Colombia
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7:06 - 7:09is a very important case of how to move around
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7:09 - 7:11safely and quickly in a non-polluting way
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7:11 - 7:15in a city: very frequent buses,
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7:15 - 7:17strongly protected routes, the same service, really,
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7:17 - 7:20as an underground railway system,
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7:20 - 7:21but much, much cheaper
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7:21 - 7:24and can be done much more quickly,
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7:24 - 7:26a brilliant idea in many more cities
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7:26 - 7:28around the world that's developing.
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7:28 - 7:30Now, some things in cities do take time.
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7:30 - 7:33Some things in cities can happen much more quickly.
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7:33 - 7:35Take my hometown, London.
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7:35 - 7:40In 1952, smog in London killed 4,000 people
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7:40 - 7:43and badly damaged the lives of many, many more.
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7:43 - 7:44And it happened all the time.
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7:44 - 7:47For those of you live outside London in the U.K.
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7:47 - 7:49will remember it used to be called The Smoke.
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7:49 - 7:50That's the way London was.
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7:50 - 7:53By regulating coal, within a few years
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7:53 - 7:56the problems of smog were rapidly reduced.
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7:56 - 7:57I remember the smogs well.
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7:57 - 8:00When the visibility dropped to [less] than
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8:00 - 8:02a few meters,
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8:02 - 8:04they stopped the buses and I had to walk.
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8:04 - 8:06This was the 1950s.
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8:06 - 8:10I had to walk home three miles from school.
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8:10 - 8:13Again, breathing was a hazardous activity.
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8:13 - 8:16But it was changed. It was changed by a decision.
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8:16 - 8:19Good decisions can bring good results,
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8:19 - 8:22striking results, quickly.
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8:22 - 8:24We've seen more: In London, we've
introduced the congestion charge, -
8:24 - 8:27actually quite quickly and effectively,
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8:27 - 8:29and we've seen great improvements
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8:29 - 8:33in the bus system, and cleaned up the bus system.
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8:33 - 8:36You can see that the two
transformations I've described, -
8:36 - 8:38the structural and the climate,
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8:38 - 8:40come very much together.
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8:40 - 8:43But we have to invest. We have to invest in our cities,
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8:43 - 8:46and we have to invest wisely, and if we do,
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8:46 - 8:50we'll see cleaner cities, quieter cities, safer cities,
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8:50 - 8:53more attractive cities, more productive cities,
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8:53 - 8:56and stronger community in those cities —
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8:56 - 8:58public transport, recycling, reusing,
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8:58 - 9:02all sorts of things that bring communities together.
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9:02 - 9:04We can do that, but we have to think,
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9:04 - 9:06we have to invest, we have to plan.
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9:06 - 9:09Let me turn to energy.
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9:09 - 9:12Now, energy over the last 25 years
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9:12 - 9:14has increased by about 50 percent.
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9:14 - 9:17Eighty percent of that comes from fossil fuels.
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9:17 - 9:18Over the next 20 years,
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9:18 - 9:22perhaps it will increase by another 40 percent or so.
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9:22 - 9:25We have to invest strongly in energy,
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9:25 - 9:28we have to use it much more efficiently,
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9:28 - 9:30and we have to make it clean.
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9:30 - 9:31We can see how to do that.
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9:31 - 9:33Take the example of California.
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9:33 - 9:35It would be in the top 10 countries in the world
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9:35 - 9:38if it was independent.
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9:38 - 9:40I don't want to start any —
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9:40 - 9:44(Laughter)
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9:44 - 9:46California's a big place.
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9:46 - 9:48(Laughter)
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9:48 - 9:51In the next five or six years,
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9:51 - 9:53they will likely move from
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9:53 - 9:56around 20 percent in renewables —
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9:56 - 9:57wind, solar and so on —
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9:57 - 10:00to over 33 percent,
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10:00 - 10:02and that would bring California back
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10:02 - 10:05to greenhouse gas emissions in 2020
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10:05 - 10:07to where they were in 1990,
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10:07 - 10:08a period when the economy in California
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10:08 - 10:10would more or less have doubled.
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10:10 - 10:11That's a striking achievement.
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10:11 - 10:13It shows what can be done.
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10:13 - 10:16Not just California — the
incoming government of India -
10:16 - 10:19is planning to get solar technology
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10:19 - 10:21to light up the homes
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10:21 - 10:22of 400 million people
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10:22 - 10:24who don't have electricity in India.
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10:24 - 10:27They've set themselves a target of five years.
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10:27 - 10:30I think they've got a good chance of doing that.
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10:30 - 10:33We'll see, but what you're seeing now
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10:33 - 10:35is people moving much more quickly.
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10:35 - 10:37Four hundred million, more than the population
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10:37 - 10:39of the United States.
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10:39 - 10:41Those are the kinds of ambitions now
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10:41 - 10:43people are setting themselves
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10:43 - 10:47in terms of rapidity of change.
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10:47 - 10:49Again, you can see
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10:49 - 10:51good decisions can bring quick results,
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10:51 - 10:54and those two transformations,
the economy and the structure -
10:54 - 10:56and the climate and the low carbon,
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10:56 - 10:58are intimately intertwined.
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10:58 - 11:00Do the first one well, the structural,
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11:00 - 11:02the second one on the climate
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11:02 - 11:05becomes much easier.
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11:05 - 11:07Look at land,
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11:07 - 11:10land and particularly forests.
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11:10 - 11:13Forests are the hosts to valuable
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11:13 - 11:15plant and animal species.
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11:15 - 11:18They hold water in the soil
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11:18 - 11:21and they take carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere,
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11:21 - 11:24fundamental to the tackling of climate change.
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11:24 - 11:26But we're losing our forests.
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11:26 - 11:29In the last decade, we've lost a forest area
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11:29 - 11:31the size of Portugal,
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11:31 - 11:33and much more has been degraded.
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11:33 - 11:35But we're already seeing
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11:35 - 11:38that we can do so much about that.
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11:38 - 11:40We can recognize the problem, but we can also
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11:40 - 11:42understand how to tackle it.
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11:42 - 11:44In Brazil, the rate of deforestation
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11:44 - 11:46has been reduced by 70 percent
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11:46 - 11:49over the last 10 years.
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11:49 - 11:52How? By involving local communities,
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11:52 - 11:55investing in their agriculture and their economies,
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11:55 - 11:57by monitoring more carefully,
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11:57 - 12:00by enforcing the law more strictly.
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12:00 - 12:02And it's not just stopping deforestation.
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12:02 - 12:05That's of course of first and fundamental importance,
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12:05 - 12:08but it's also regrading degraded land,
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12:08 - 12:13regenerating, rehabilitating degraded land.
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12:13 - 12:17I first went to Ethiopia in 1967.
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12:17 - 12:19It was desperately poor. In the following years,
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12:19 - 12:21it suffered devastating famines
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12:21 - 12:25and profoundly destructive social conflict.
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12:25 - 12:28Over the last few years, actually more than a few,
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12:28 - 12:31Ethiopia has been growing much more rapidly.
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12:31 - 12:32It has ambitions to be a middle-income country
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12:32 - 12:3515 years from now
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12:35 - 12:37and to be carbon neutral.
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12:37 - 12:40Again, I think it's a strong ambition
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12:40 - 12:43but it is a plausible one.
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12:43 - 12:44You're seeing that commitment there.
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12:44 - 12:45You're seeing what can be done.
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12:45 - 12:48Ethiopia is investing in clean energy.
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12:48 - 12:51It's working in the rehabilitation of land.
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12:51 - 12:54In Humbo, in southwest Ethiopia,
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12:54 - 12:55a wonderful project
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12:55 - 12:57to plant trees on degraded land
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12:57 - 12:59and work with local communities
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12:59 - 13:02on sustainable forest management
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13:02 - 13:05has led to big increases in living standards.
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13:05 - 13:08So we can see, from Beijing to London,
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13:08 - 13:11from California to India,
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13:11 - 13:14from Brazil to Ethiopia,
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13:14 - 13:15we do understand
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13:15 - 13:18how to manage those two transformations,
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13:18 - 13:20the structural and the climate.
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13:20 - 13:24We do understand how to manage those well.
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13:24 - 13:27And technology is changing very rapidly.
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13:27 - 13:29I don't have to list all those things
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13:29 - 13:31to an audience like this,
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13:31 - 13:33but you can see the electric cars,
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13:33 - 13:36you can see the batteries using new materials.
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13:36 - 13:39You can see that we can manage remotely now
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13:39 - 13:42our household appliances on our
mobile phones when we're away. -
13:42 - 13:44You can see better insulation.
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13:44 - 13:46And there's much more coming.
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13:46 - 13:48But, and it's a big but,
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13:48 - 13:50the world as a whole
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13:50 - 13:53is moving far too slowly.
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13:53 - 13:55We're not cutting emissions in the way we should.
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13:55 - 13:58We're not managing those structural transformations
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13:58 - 14:00as we can.
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14:00 - 14:03The depth of understanding of the
immense risks of climate change -
14:03 - 14:07are not there yet.
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14:07 - 14:09The depth of understanding
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14:09 - 14:12of the attractiveness of what we can do
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14:12 - 14:15is not there yet.
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14:15 - 14:19We need political pressure to build.
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14:19 - 14:22We need leaders to step up.
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14:22 - 14:26We can have better growth,
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14:26 - 14:30better climate, a better world.
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14:30 - 14:32We can make,
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14:32 - 14:35by managing those two transformations well,
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14:35 - 14:39the next 100 years the best of centuries.
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14:39 - 14:40If we make a mess of it,
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14:40 - 14:43we, you and me, if we make a mess of it,
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14:43 - 14:46if we don't manage those transformations properly,
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14:46 - 14:49it will be, the next 100 years
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14:49 - 14:51will be the worst of centuries.
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14:51 - 14:53That's the major conclusion
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14:53 - 14:56of the report on the economy and climate
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14:56 - 15:00chaired by ex-President Felipe Calderón of Mexico,
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15:00 - 15:02and I co-chaired that with him,
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15:02 - 15:04and we handed that report yesterday
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15:04 - 15:07here in New York, in the United Nations Building
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15:07 - 15:09to the Secretary-General of the U.N.,
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15:09 - 15:10Ban Ki-moon.
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15:10 - 15:14We know that we can do this.
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15:14 - 15:18Now, two weeks ago,
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15:18 - 15:21I became a grandfather for the fourth time.
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15:21 - 15:23Our daughter —
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15:23 - 15:34(Baby cries) (Laughter) (Applause) —
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15:34 - 15:37Our daughter gave birth to Rosa here in New York
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15:37 - 15:40two weeks ago. Here are Helen and Rosa.
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15:40 - 15:44(Applause)
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15:47 - 15:50Two weeks old.
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15:50 - 15:56Are we going to look our grandchildren in the eye
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15:56 - 15:59and tell them that we understood the issues,
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15:59 - 16:03that we recognized the dangers and the opportunities,
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16:03 - 16:07and still we failed to act?
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16:07 - 16:10Surely not. Let's make the next 100 years
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16:10 - 16:12the best of centuries.
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16:12 - 16:16(Applause)
- Title:
- The state of the climate — and what we might do about it
- Speaker:
- Lord Nicholas Stern
- Description:
-
How can we begin to address the global, insidious problem of climate change — a problem that’s too big for any one country to solve? Economist Nicholas Stern lays out a plan, presented to the UN’s Climate Summit in 2014, showing how the world’s countries can work together on climate. It’s a big vision for cooperation, with a payoff that goes far beyond averting disaster. He asks: How can we use this crisis to spur better lives for all?
- Video Language:
- English
- Team:
- closed TED
- Project:
- TEDTalks
- Duration:
- 16:33
Morton Bast edited English subtitles for The state of the climate — and what we might do about it | ||
Morton Bast approved English subtitles for The state of the climate — and what we might do about it | ||
Morton Bast edited English subtitles for The state of the climate — and what we might do about it | ||
Morton Bast edited English subtitles for The state of the climate — and what we might do about it | ||
Morton Bast edited English subtitles for The state of the climate — and what we might do about it | ||
Madeleine Aronson accepted English subtitles for The state of the climate — and what we might do about it | ||
Madeleine Aronson edited English subtitles for The state of the climate — and what we might do about it | ||
Madeleine Aronson edited English subtitles for The state of the climate — and what we might do about it |