[Script Info]
Title: 
[Events]
Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text
Dialogue: 0,0:00:00.27,0:00:04.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We are at a remarkable moment in time.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:04.30,0:00:07.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We face over the next two decades
Dialogue: 0,0:00:07.23,0:00:09.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,two fundamental transformations
Dialogue: 0,0:00:09.30,0:00:12.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that will determine whether the next 100 years
Dialogue: 0,0:00:12.34,0:00:16.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is the best of centuries or the worst of centuries.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:16.53,0:00:19.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Let me illustrate with an example.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:19.25,0:00:22.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I first visited Beijing 25 years ago
Dialogue: 0,0:00:22.52,0:00:25.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to teach at the People's University of China.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:25.55,0:00:28.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,China was getting serious about market economics
Dialogue: 0,0:00:28.48,0:00:30.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and about university education,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:30.82,0:00:35.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so they decided to call in the foreign experts.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:35.32,0:00:36.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Like most other people,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:36.92,0:00:39.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I moved around Beijing by bicycle.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:39.74,0:00:41.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Apart from dodging the occasional vehicle,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:41.93,0:00:45.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it was a safe and easy way to get around.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:45.24,0:00:46.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Cycling in Beijing now
Dialogue: 0,0:00:46.60,0:00:49.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is a completely different prospect.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:49.42,0:00:52.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The roads are jammed by cars and trucks.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:52.56,0:00:54.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The air is dangerously polluted
Dialogue: 0,0:00:54.36,0:00:57.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from the burning of coal and diesel.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:57.98,0:01:00.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When I was there last in the spring,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:00.11,0:01:02.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there was an advisory for people of my age —
Dialogue: 0,0:01:02.89,0:01:05.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,over 65 —
Dialogue: 0,0:01:05.32,0:01:08.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to stay indoors and not move much.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:08.19,0:01:10.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,How did this come about?
Dialogue: 0,0:01:10.12,0:01:12.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It came from the way in which
Dialogue: 0,0:01:12.54,0:01:14.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Beijing has grown as a city.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:14.81,0:01:17.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's doubled over those 25 years, more than doubled,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:17.27,0:01:19.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from 10 million to 20 million.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:19.45,0:01:21.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's become a sprawling urban area
Dialogue: 0,0:01:21.14,0:01:25.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,dependent on dirty fuel, dirty energy,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:25.50,0:01:27.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,particularly coal.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:27.32,0:01:31.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,China burns half the world's coal each year,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:31.60,0:01:35.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that's why, it is a key reason why,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:35.51,0:01:37.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it is the world's largest emitter
Dialogue: 0,0:01:37.54,0:01:40.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of greenhouse gases.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:40.45,0:01:42.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,At the same time, we have to recognize
Dialogue: 0,0:01:42.56,0:01:45.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that in that period China has grown remarkably.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:45.75,0:01:48.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It has become the world's second largest economy.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:48.19,0:01:49.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Hundreds of millions of people
Dialogue: 0,0:01:49.66,0:01:51.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,have been lifted out of poverty.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:51.82,0:01:53.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's really important.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:53.90,0:01:56.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But at the same time, the people of China
Dialogue: 0,0:01:56.22,0:01:57.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are asking the question:
Dialogue: 0,0:01:57.82,0:01:59.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What's the value of this growth
Dialogue: 0,0:01:59.40,0:02:01.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if our cities are unlivable?
Dialogue: 0,0:02:01.52,0:02:03.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They've analyzed, diagnosed
Dialogue: 0,0:02:03.84,0:02:07.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that this is an unsustainable path of growth
Dialogue: 0,0:02:07.18,0:02:09.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and development.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:09.30,0:02:11.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,China's planning to scale back coal.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:11.63,0:02:17.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's looking to build its cities in different ways.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:17.49,0:02:19.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, the growth of China
Dialogue: 0,0:02:19.33,0:02:23.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is part of a dramatic change, fundamental change,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:23.05,0:02:25.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the structure of the world economy.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:25.82,0:02:28.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Just 25 years ago, the developing countries,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:28.54,0:02:30.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the poorer countries of the world,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:30.43,0:02:34.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,were, notwithstanding being\Nthe vast majority of the people,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:34.36,0:02:36.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they accounted for only about a third
Dialogue: 0,0:02:36.18,0:02:38.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of the world's output.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:38.17,0:02:39.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now it's more than half;
Dialogue: 0,0:02:39.91,0:02:42.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,25 years from now, it will probably be two thirds
Dialogue: 0,0:02:42.88,0:02:45.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from the countries that we saw 25 years ago
Dialogue: 0,0:02:45.99,0:02:47.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as developing.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:47.27,0:02:48.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's a remarkable change.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:48.86,0:02:51.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It means that most countries around the world,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:51.27,0:02:53.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,rich or poor, are going to be facing
Dialogue: 0,0:02:53.32,0:02:55.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the two fundamental transformations
Dialogue: 0,0:02:55.30,0:02:58.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that I want to talk about and highlight.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:58.49,0:03:00.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, the first of these transformations
Dialogue: 0,0:03:00.50,0:03:03.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is the basic structural change
Dialogue: 0,0:03:03.11,0:03:04.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of the economies and societies
Dialogue: 0,0:03:04.85,0:03:06.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that I've already begun to illustrate
Dialogue: 0,0:03:06.88,0:03:10.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,through the description of Beijing.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:10.39,0:03:13.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Fifty percent now in urban areas.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:13.35,0:03:16.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's going to go to 70 percent in 2050.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:16.96,0:03:19.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Over the next two decades, we'll see
Dialogue: 0,0:03:19.22,0:03:22.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the demand for energy rise by 40 percent,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:22.13,0:03:26.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the growth in the economy and in the population
Dialogue: 0,0:03:26.11,0:03:29.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is putting increasing pressure on our land,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:29.09,0:03:32.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on our water and on our forests.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:32.96,0:03:36.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is profound structural change.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:36.24,0:03:37.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If we manage it in a negligent
Dialogue: 0,0:03:37.82,0:03:40.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or a shortsighted way,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:40.44,0:03:44.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we will create waste, pollution, congestion,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:44.30,0:03:47.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,destruction of land and forests.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:47.85,0:03:50.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If we think of those three areas that I have illustrated
Dialogue: 0,0:03:50.18,0:03:53.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with my numbers — cities, energy, land —
Dialogue: 0,0:03:53.90,0:03:55.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if we manage all that badly,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:55.78,0:03:57.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,then the outlook for the lives and livelihoods
Dialogue: 0,0:03:57.86,0:03:59.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of the people around the world
Dialogue: 0,0:03:59.67,0:04:02.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,would be poor and damaged.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:02.67,0:04:04.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And more than that,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:04.49,0:04:07.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the emissions of greenhouse gases would rise,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:07.80,0:04:11.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with immense risks to our climate.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:11.68,0:04:13.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Concentrations of greenhouse gases
Dialogue: 0,0:04:13.72,0:04:16.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the atmosphere are already
Dialogue: 0,0:04:16.64,0:04:20.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,higher than they've been for millions of years.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:20.28,0:04:23.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If we go on increasing those concentrations,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:23.91,0:04:27.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we risk temperatures over the next century or so
Dialogue: 0,0:04:27.29,0:04:28.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that we have not seen on this planet
Dialogue: 0,0:04:28.90,0:04:32.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for tens of millions of years.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:32.11,0:04:34.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We've been around as Homo sapiens —
Dialogue: 0,0:04:34.24,0:04:37.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that's a rather generous definition, sapiens —
Dialogue: 0,0:04:37.41,0:04:40.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for perhaps a quarter of a million\Nyears, a quarter of a million.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:40.21,0:04:41.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We risk temperatures we haven't seen
Dialogue: 0,0:04:41.44,0:04:46.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for tens of millions of years over a century.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:46.18,0:04:48.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That would transform the relationship
Dialogue: 0,0:04:48.25,0:04:52.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,between human beings and the planet.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:52.48,0:04:57.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It would lead to changing deserts,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:57.13,0:05:00.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,changing rivers, changing patterns of hurricanes,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:00.32,0:05:01.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,changing sea levels,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:01.56,0:05:04.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,hundreds of millions of people,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:04.20,0:05:07.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,perhaps billions of people who would have to move,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:07.43,0:05:09.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and if we've learned anything from history,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:09.35,0:05:11.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that means severe and extended conflict.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:11.66,0:05:13.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And we couldn't just turn it off.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:13.54,0:05:15.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You can't make a peace treaty with the planet.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:15.97,0:05:18.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You can't negotiate with the laws of physics.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:18.20,0:05:19.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You're in there. You're stuck.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:19.92,0:05:21.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Those are the stakes we're playing for,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:21.59,0:05:24.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that's why we have to make\Nthis second transformation,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:24.31,0:05:25.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the climate transformation,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:25.95,0:05:28.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and move to a low-carbon economy.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:28.34,0:05:30.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, the first of these transformations
Dialogue: 0,0:05:30.71,0:05:31.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is going to happen anyway.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:31.80,0:05:33.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We have to decide whether to do it well or badly,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:33.64,0:05:36.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the economic, or structural, transformation.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:36.46,0:05:38.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But the second of the transformations,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:38.35,0:05:42.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the climate transformations, we have to decide to do.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:42.47,0:05:44.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Those two transformations face us
Dialogue: 0,0:05:44.68,0:05:46.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the next two decades.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:46.86,0:05:50.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The next two decades are decisive
Dialogue: 0,0:05:50.07,0:05:52.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for what we have to do.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:52.79,0:05:54.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, the more I've thought about this,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:54.30,0:05:56.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the two transformations coming together,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:56.41,0:05:57.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the more I've come to realize
Dialogue: 0,0:05:57.96,0:06:00.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that this is an enormous opportunity.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:00.91,0:06:03.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's an opportunity which we can use
Dialogue: 0,0:06:03.14,0:06:06.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or it's an opportunity which we can lose.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:06.53,0:06:09.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And let me explain through those three key areas
Dialogue: 0,0:06:09.26,0:06:11.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that I've identified: cities, energy and land.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:11.96,0:06:14.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And let me start with cities.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:14.02,0:06:18.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I've already described the problems of Beijing:
Dialogue: 0,0:06:18.05,0:06:20.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,pollution, congestion, waste and so on.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:20.90,0:06:24.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Surely we recognize that in many of our cities
Dialogue: 0,0:06:24.59,0:06:25.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,around the world.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:25.85,0:06:28.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, with cities, like life but particularly cities,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:28.77,0:06:31.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you have to think ahead.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:31.84,0:06:33.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The cities that are going to be built —
Dialogue: 0,0:06:33.25,0:06:35.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and there are many, and many big ones —
Dialogue: 0,0:06:35.41,0:06:36.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we have to think of how to design them
Dialogue: 0,0:06:36.87,0:06:38.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in a compact way
Dialogue: 0,0:06:38.22,0:06:41.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so we can save travel time \Nand we can save energy.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:41.66,0:06:45.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The cities that already are \Nthere, well established,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:45.58,0:06:48.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we have to think about renewal\Nand investment in them
Dialogue: 0,0:06:48.65,0:06:51.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so that we can connect ourselves much better
Dialogue: 0,0:06:51.43,0:06:53.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,within those cities, and make it easier,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:53.82,0:06:57.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,encourage more people, to live closer to the center.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:57.41,0:06:59.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We've got examples building around the world
Dialogue: 0,0:06:59.82,0:07:02.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of the kinds of ways in which we can do that.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:02.11,0:07:06.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The bus rapid transport system in Bogotá in Colombia
Dialogue: 0,0:07:06.13,0:07:08.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is a very important case of how to move around
Dialogue: 0,0:07:08.76,0:07:11.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,safely and quickly in a non-polluting way
Dialogue: 0,0:07:11.33,0:07:14.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in a city: very frequent buses,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:14.53,0:07:17.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,strongly protected routes, the same service, really,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:17.46,0:07:19.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as an underground railway system,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:19.56,0:07:21.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but much, much cheaper
Dialogue: 0,0:07:21.37,0:07:23.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and can be done much more quickly,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:23.78,0:07:25.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a brilliant idea in many more cities
Dialogue: 0,0:07:25.67,0:07:27.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,around the world that's developing.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:27.71,0:07:29.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, some things in cities do take time.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:29.61,0:07:32.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Some things in cities can happen much more quickly.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:32.66,0:07:34.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Take my hometown, London.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:34.76,0:07:40.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In 1952, smog in London killed 4,000 people
Dialogue: 0,0:07:40.05,0:07:42.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and badly damaged the lives of many, many more.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:42.75,0:07:44.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And it happened all the time.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:44.10,0:07:46.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For those of you live outside London in the U.K.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:46.60,0:07:48.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,will remember it used to be called The Smoke.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:48.79,0:07:50.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's the way London was.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:50.47,0:07:52.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,By regulating coal, within a few years
Dialogue: 0,0:07:52.55,0:07:55.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the problems of smog were rapidly reduced.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:55.64,0:07:57.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I remember the smogs well.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:57.19,0:07:59.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When the visibility dropped to [less] than
Dialogue: 0,0:07:59.92,0:08:01.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a few meters,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:01.91,0:08:03.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they stopped the buses and I had to walk.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:03.76,0:08:05.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This was the 1950s.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:05.82,0:08:09.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I had to walk home three miles from school.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:09.72,0:08:13.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Again, breathing was a hazardous activity.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:13.29,0:08:15.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But it was changed. It was changed by a decision.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:15.97,0:08:19.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Good decisions can bring good results,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:19.14,0:08:21.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,striking results, quickly.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:21.50,0:08:24.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We've seen more: In London, we've\Nintroduced the congestion charge,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:24.49,0:08:27.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,actually quite quickly and effectively,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:27.20,0:08:28.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we've seen great improvements
Dialogue: 0,0:08:28.82,0:08:32.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the bus system, and cleaned up the bus system.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:32.78,0:08:35.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You can see that the two\Ntransformations I've described,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:35.90,0:08:37.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the structural and the climate,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:37.86,0:08:40.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,come very much together.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:40.49,0:08:43.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But we have to invest. We have to invest in our cities,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:43.42,0:08:45.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we have to invest wisely, and if we do,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:45.96,0:08:50.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we'll see cleaner cities, quieter cities, safer cities,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:50.49,0:08:53.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,more attractive cities, more productive cities,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:53.15,0:08:55.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and stronger community in those cities —
Dialogue: 0,0:08:55.92,0:08:58.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,public transport, recycling, reusing,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:58.16,0:09:02.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,all sorts of things that bring communities together.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:02.21,0:09:04.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We can do that, but we have to think,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:04.07,0:09:06.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we have to invest, we have to plan.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:06.35,0:09:08.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Let me turn to energy.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:08.52,0:09:11.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, energy over the last 25 years
Dialogue: 0,0:09:11.74,0:09:13.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,has increased by about 50 percent.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:13.98,0:09:16.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Eighty percent of that comes from fossil fuels.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:16.60,0:09:18.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Over the next 20 years,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:18.25,0:09:22.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,perhaps it will increase by another 40 percent or so.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:22.03,0:09:24.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We have to invest strongly in energy,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:24.56,0:09:27.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we have to use it much more efficiently,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:27.84,0:09:29.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we have to make it clean.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:29.53,0:09:30.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We can see how to do that.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:30.86,0:09:32.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Take the example of California.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:32.76,0:09:35.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It would be in the top 10 countries in the world
Dialogue: 0,0:09:35.37,0:09:37.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if it was independent.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:37.91,0:09:40.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I don't want to start any —
Dialogue: 0,0:09:40.48,0:09:43.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:09:43.98,0:09:45.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,California's a big place.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:45.82,0:09:47.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:09:47.87,0:09:50.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In the next five or six years,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:50.61,0:09:53.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they will likely move from
Dialogue: 0,0:09:53.32,0:09:55.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,around 20 percent in renewables —
Dialogue: 0,0:09:55.56,0:09:57.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,wind, solar and so on —
Dialogue: 0,0:09:57.32,0:09:59.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to over 33 percent,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:59.79,0:10:02.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that would bring California back
Dialogue: 0,0:10:02.23,0:10:04.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to greenhouse gas emissions in 2020
Dialogue: 0,0:10:04.76,0:10:06.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to where they were in 1990,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:06.72,0:10:08.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a period when the economy in California
Dialogue: 0,0:10:08.47,0:10:09.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,would more or less have doubled.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:09.90,0:10:11.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's a striking achievement.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:11.35,0:10:12.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It shows what can be done.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:12.83,0:10:16.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Not just California — the \Nincoming government of India
Dialogue: 0,0:10:16.14,0:10:19.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is planning to get solar technology
Dialogue: 0,0:10:19.16,0:10:20.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to light up the homes
Dialogue: 0,0:10:20.54,0:10:22.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of 400 million people
Dialogue: 0,0:10:22.25,0:10:24.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who don't have electricity in India.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:24.31,0:10:26.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They've set themselves a target of five years.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:26.79,0:10:30.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think they've got a good chance of doing that.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:30.02,0:10:32.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We'll see, but what you're seeing now
Dialogue: 0,0:10:32.68,0:10:34.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is people moving much more quickly.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:34.99,0:10:36.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Four hundred million, more than the population
Dialogue: 0,0:10:36.72,0:10:38.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of the United States.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:38.85,0:10:40.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Those are the kinds of ambitions now
Dialogue: 0,0:10:40.94,0:10:42.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,people are setting themselves
Dialogue: 0,0:10:42.65,0:10:47.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in terms of rapidity of change.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:47.13,0:10:49.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Again, you can see
Dialogue: 0,0:10:49.10,0:10:50.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,good decisions can bring quick results,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:50.88,0:10:53.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and those two transformations,\Nthe economy and the structure
Dialogue: 0,0:10:53.91,0:10:55.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the climate and the low carbon,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:55.90,0:10:58.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are intimately intertwined.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:58.45,0:11:00.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Do the first one well, the structural,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:00.27,0:11:02.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the second one on the climate
Dialogue: 0,0:11:02.25,0:11:05.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,becomes much easier.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:05.43,0:11:07.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Look at land,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:07.22,0:11:09.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,land and particularly forests.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:09.81,0:11:12.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Forests are the hosts to valuable
Dialogue: 0,0:11:12.87,0:11:15.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,plant and animal species.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:15.40,0:11:17.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They hold water in the soil
Dialogue: 0,0:11:17.75,0:11:20.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they take carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:20.66,0:11:23.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,fundamental to the tackling of climate change.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:23.73,0:11:25.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But we're losing our forests.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:25.96,0:11:28.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In the last decade, we've lost a forest area
Dialogue: 0,0:11:28.79,0:11:30.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the size of Portugal,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:30.94,0:11:33.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and much more has been degraded.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:33.40,0:11:35.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But we're already seeing
Dialogue: 0,0:11:35.15,0:11:37.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that we can do so much about that.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:37.56,0:11:39.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We can recognize the problem, but we can also
Dialogue: 0,0:11:39.60,0:11:41.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,understand how to tackle it.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:41.71,0:11:44.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In Brazil, the rate of deforestation
Dialogue: 0,0:11:44.37,0:11:46.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,has been reduced by 70 percent
Dialogue: 0,0:11:46.38,0:11:48.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,over the last 10 years.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:48.94,0:11:51.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,How? By involving local communities,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:51.93,0:11:54.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,investing in their agriculture and their economies,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:54.75,0:11:56.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by monitoring more carefully,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:56.85,0:12:00.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by enforcing the law more strictly.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:00.50,0:12:02.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And it's not just stopping deforestation.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:02.39,0:12:04.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's of course of first and fundamental importance,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:04.83,0:12:08.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but it's also regrading degraded land,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:08.45,0:12:12.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,regenerating, rehabilitating degraded land.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:12.85,0:12:16.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I first went to Ethiopia in 1967.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:16.73,0:12:19.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It was desperately poor. In the following years,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:19.20,0:12:20.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it suffered devastating famines
Dialogue: 0,0:12:20.95,0:12:24.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and profoundly destructive social conflict.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:24.81,0:12:27.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Over the last few years, actually more than a few,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:27.64,0:12:30.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Ethiopia has been growing much more rapidly.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:30.56,0:12:32.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It has ambitions to be a middle-income country
Dialogue: 0,0:12:32.46,0:12:34.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,15 years from now
Dialogue: 0,0:12:34.96,0:12:37.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and to be carbon neutral.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:37.20,0:12:40.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Again, I think it's a strong ambition
Dialogue: 0,0:12:40.25,0:12:42.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but it is a plausible one.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:42.55,0:12:43.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You're seeing that commitment there.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:43.96,0:12:45.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You're seeing what can be done.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:45.22,0:12:47.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Ethiopia is investing in clean energy.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:47.79,0:12:51.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's working in the rehabilitation of land.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:51.41,0:12:53.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In Humbo, in southwest Ethiopia,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:53.84,0:12:55.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a wonderful project
Dialogue: 0,0:12:55.26,0:12:57.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to plant trees on degraded land
Dialogue: 0,0:12:57.44,0:12:59.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and work with local communities
Dialogue: 0,0:12:59.06,0:13:01.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on sustainable forest management
Dialogue: 0,0:13:01.51,0:13:04.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,has led to big increases in living standards.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:04.55,0:13:08.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So we can see, from Beijing to London,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:08.41,0:13:10.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from California to India,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:10.70,0:13:13.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from Brazil to Ethiopia,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:13.83,0:13:15.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we do understand
Dialogue: 0,0:13:15.44,0:13:17.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how to manage those two transformations,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:17.64,0:13:19.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the structural and the climate.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:19.57,0:13:23.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We do understand how to manage those well.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:23.75,0:13:26.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And technology is changing very rapidly.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:26.53,0:13:28.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I don't have to list all those things
Dialogue: 0,0:13:28.94,0:13:30.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to an audience like this,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:30.83,0:13:33.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but you can see the electric cars,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:33.12,0:13:36.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you can see the batteries using new materials.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:36.21,0:13:38.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You can see that we can manage remotely now
Dialogue: 0,0:13:38.60,0:13:42.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,our household appliances on our\Nmobile phones when we're away.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:42.16,0:13:43.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You can see better insulation.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:43.96,0:13:45.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And there's much more coming.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:45.89,0:13:48.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But, and it's a big but,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:48.28,0:13:49.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the world as a whole
Dialogue: 0,0:13:49.89,0:13:52.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is moving far too slowly.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:52.67,0:13:55.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We're not cutting emissions in the way we should.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:55.21,0:13:57.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We're not managing those structural transformations
Dialogue: 0,0:13:57.92,0:14:00.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as we can.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:00.15,0:14:03.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The depth of understanding of the\Nimmense risks of climate change
Dialogue: 0,0:14:03.39,0:14:06.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are not there yet.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:06.97,0:14:09.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The depth of understanding
Dialogue: 0,0:14:09.10,0:14:11.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of the attractiveness of what we can do
Dialogue: 0,0:14:11.59,0:14:15.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is not there yet.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:15.25,0:14:18.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We need political pressure to build.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:18.75,0:14:22.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We need leaders to step up.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:22.28,0:14:25.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We can have better growth,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:25.78,0:14:29.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,better climate, a better world.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:29.99,0:14:31.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We can make,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:31.80,0:14:34.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by managing those two transformations well,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:34.58,0:14:38.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the next 100 years the best of centuries.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:38.87,0:14:40.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If we make a mess of it,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:40.09,0:14:43.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we, you and me, if we make a mess of it,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:43.24,0:14:45.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if we don't manage those transformations properly,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:45.71,0:14:48.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it will be, the next 100 years
Dialogue: 0,0:14:48.60,0:14:51.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,will be the worst of centuries.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:51.34,0:14:53.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's the major conclusion
Dialogue: 0,0:14:53.23,0:14:56.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of the report on the economy and climate
Dialogue: 0,0:14:56.36,0:15:00.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,chaired by ex-President Felipe Calderón of Mexico,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:00.23,0:15:02.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I co-chaired that with him,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:02.41,0:15:04.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we handed that report yesterday
Dialogue: 0,0:15:04.36,0:15:07.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,here in New York, in the United Nations Building
Dialogue: 0,0:15:07.35,0:15:08.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to the Secretary-General of the U.N.,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:08.82,0:15:10.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Ban Ki-moon.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:10.09,0:15:14.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We know that we can do this.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:14.19,0:15:17.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, two weeks ago,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:17.58,0:15:20.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I became a grandfather for the fourth time.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:20.98,0:15:23.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Our daughter —
Dialogue: 0,0:15:23.11,0:15:33.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Baby cries) (Laughter) (Applause) —
Dialogue: 0,0:15:33.71,0:15:36.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Our daughter gave birth to Rosa here in New York
Dialogue: 0,0:15:36.62,0:15:39.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,two weeks ago. Here are Helen and Rosa.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:39.63,0:15:44.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Applause)
Dialogue: 0,0:15:46.87,0:15:49.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Two weeks old.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:49.84,0:15:55.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Are we going to look our grandchildren in the eye
Dialogue: 0,0:15:55.52,0:15:59.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and tell them that we understood the issues,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:59.27,0:16:02.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that we recognized the dangers and the opportunities,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:02.59,0:16:06.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and still we failed to act?
Dialogue: 0,0:16:06.83,0:16:10.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Surely not. Let's make the next 100 years
Dialogue: 0,0:16:10.31,0:16:12.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the best of centuries.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:12.12,0:16:16.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Applause)