How not to be ignorant about the world
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0:01 - 0:03Hans Rosling: I'm going to ask you
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0:03 - 0:04three multiple choice questions.
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0:04 - 0:08Use this device. Use this device to answer.
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0:08 - 0:11The first question is, how did the number
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0:11 - 0:13of deaths per year
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0:13 - 0:14from natural disaster,
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0:14 - 0:17how did that change during the last century?
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0:17 - 0:18Did it more than double,
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0:18 - 0:21did it remain about the same in the world as a whole,
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0:21 - 0:23or did it decrease to less than half?
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0:23 - 0:26Please answer A, B or C.
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0:26 - 0:30I see lots of answers. This is much
faster than I do it at universities. -
0:30 - 0:33They are so slow. They keep
thinking, thinking, thinking. -
0:33 - 0:35Oh, very, very good.
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0:35 - 0:37And we go to the next question.
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0:37 - 0:39So how long did women 30 years old
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0:39 - 0:42in the world go to school:
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0:42 - 0:44seven years, five years or three years?
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0:44 - 0:50A, B or C? Please answer.
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0:50 - 0:52And we go to the next question.
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0:52 - 0:56In the last 20 years, how did the percentage
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0:56 - 0:58of people in the world
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0:58 - 1:00who live in extreme poverty change?
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1:00 - 1:03Extreme poverty — not having
enough food for the day. -
1:03 - 1:05Did it almost double,
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1:05 - 1:06did it remain more or less the same,
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1:06 - 1:08or did it halve?
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1:08 - 1:12A, B or C?
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1:12 - 1:15Now, answers.
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1:15 - 1:16You see,
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1:16 - 1:18deaths from natural disasters in the world,
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1:18 - 1:20you can see it from this graph here,
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1:20 - 1:22from 1900 to 2000.
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1:22 - 1:26In 1900, there was about half a million people
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1:26 - 1:28who died every year from natural disasters:
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1:28 - 1:33floods, earthquakes, volcanic
eruption, whatever, droughts. -
1:33 - 1:36And then, how did that change?
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1:36 - 1:39Gapminder asked the public in Sweden.
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1:39 - 1:41This is how they answered.
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1:41 - 1:43The Swedish public answered like this:
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1:43 - 1:44Fifty percent thought it had doubled,
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1:44 - 1:4738 percent said it's more or less the same,
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1:47 - 1:4912 said it had halved.
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1:49 - 1:51This is the best data from the disaster researchers,
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1:51 - 1:54and it goes up and down,
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1:54 - 1:57and it goes to the Second World War,
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1:57 - 2:00and after that it starts to fall and it keeps falling
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2:00 - 2:02and it's down to much less than half.
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2:02 - 2:05The world has been much, much more capable
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2:05 - 2:06as the decades go by
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2:06 - 2:09to protect people from this, you know.
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2:09 - 2:12So only 12 percent of the Swedes know this.
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2:12 - 2:14So I went to the zoo and I asked the chimps.
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2:14 - 2:24(Laughter) (Applause)
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2:27 - 2:31The chimps don't watch the evening news,
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2:31 - 2:33so the chimps,
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2:33 - 2:36they choose by random, so the
Swedes answer worse than random. -
2:36 - 2:39Now how did you do?
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2:39 - 2:42That's you.
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2:42 - 2:44You were beaten by the chimps.
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2:44 - 2:46(Laughter)
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2:46 - 2:49But it was close.
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2:49 - 2:53You were three times better than the Swedes,
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2:53 - 2:54but that's not enough.
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2:54 - 2:57You shouldn't compare yourself to Swedes.
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2:57 - 3:00You must have higher ambitions in the world.
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3:00 - 3:04Let's look at the next answer here: women in school.
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3:04 - 3:06Here, you can see men went eight years.
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3:06 - 3:08How long did women go to school?
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3:08 - 3:10Well, we asked the Swedes like this,
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3:10 - 3:13and that gives you a hint, doesn't it?
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3:13 - 3:15The right answer is probably the one
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3:15 - 3:18the fewest Swedes picked, isn't it?
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3:18 - 3:19(Laughter)
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3:19 - 3:22Let's see, let's see. Here we come.
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3:22 - 3:26Yes, yes, yes, women have almost caught up.
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3:26 - 3:29This is the U.S. public.
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3:29 - 3:33And this is you. Here you come.
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3:33 - 3:37Ooh.
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3:37 - 3:39Well, congratulations, you're
twice as good as the Swedes, -
3:39 - 3:42but you don't need me —
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3:42 - 3:46So how come? I think it's like this,
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3:46 - 3:49that everyone is aware that there are countries
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3:49 - 3:50and there are areas
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3:50 - 3:52where girls have great difficulties.
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3:52 - 3:54They are stopped when they go to school,
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3:54 - 3:56and it's disgusting.
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3:56 - 3:58But in the majority of the world,
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3:58 - 4:00where most people in the world live,
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4:00 - 4:03most countries, girls today go to school
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4:03 - 4:05as long as boys, more or less.
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4:05 - 4:07That doesn't mean that gender equity is achieved,
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4:07 - 4:10not at all.
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4:10 - 4:14They still are confined to terrible, terrible limitations,
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4:14 - 4:16but schooling is there in the world today.
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4:16 - 4:20Now, we miss the majority.
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4:20 - 4:24When you answer, you answer
according to the worst places, -
4:24 - 4:27and there you are right, but you miss the majority.
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4:27 - 4:28What about poverty?
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4:28 - 4:31Well, it's very clear that poverty here
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4:31 - 4:33was almost halved,
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4:33 - 4:34and in U.S., when we asked the public,
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4:34 - 4:38only five percent got it right.
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4:38 - 4:41And you?
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4:41 - 4:45Ah, you almost made it to the chimps.
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4:45 - 4:48(Laughter) (Applause)
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4:48 - 4:53That little, just a few of you!
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4:53 - 4:57There must be preconceived ideas, you know.
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4:57 - 4:59And many in the rich countries,
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4:59 - 5:02they think that oh, we can never end extreme poverty.
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5:02 - 5:04Of course they think so,
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5:04 - 5:07because they don't even know what has happened.
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5:07 - 5:09The first thing to think about the future
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5:09 - 5:11is to know about the present.
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5:11 - 5:14These questions were a few of the first ones
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5:14 - 5:18in the pilot phase of the Ignorance Project
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5:18 - 5:21in Gapminder Foundation that we run,
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5:21 - 5:24and it was started, this project, last year
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5:24 - 5:28by my boss, and also my son, Ola Rosling. (Laughter)
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5:28 - 5:30He's cofounder and director,
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5:30 - 5:31and he wanted, Ola told me
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5:31 - 5:34we have to be more systematic
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5:34 - 5:35when we fight devastating ignorance.
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5:35 - 5:38So already the pilots reveal this,
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5:38 - 5:41that so many in the public score worse than random,
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5:41 - 5:43so we have to think about preconceived ideas,
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5:43 - 5:45and one of the main preconceived ideas
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5:45 - 5:47is about world income distribution.
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5:47 - 5:51Look here. This is how it was in 1975.
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5:51 - 5:54It's the number of people on each income,
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5:54 - 5:57from one dollar a day —
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5:57 - 5:59(Applause)
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5:59 - 6:01See, there was one hump here,
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6:01 - 6:03around one dollar a day,
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6:03 - 6:05and then there was one hump here
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6:05 - 6:07somewhere between 10 and 100 dollars.
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6:07 - 6:08The world was two groups.
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6:08 - 6:12It was a camel world, like a camel with two humps,
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6:12 - 6:14the poor ones and the rich ones,
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6:14 - 6:16and there were fewer in between.
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6:16 - 6:18But look how this has changed:
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6:18 - 6:20As I go forward, what has changed,
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6:20 - 6:21the world population has grown,
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6:21 - 6:24and the humps start to merge.
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6:24 - 6:27The lower humps merged with the upper hump,
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6:27 - 6:30and the camel dies and we have a dromedary world
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6:30 - 6:32with one hump only.
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6:32 - 6:34The percent in poverty has decreased.
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6:34 - 6:36Still it's appalling
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6:36 - 6:39that so many remain in extreme poverty.
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6:39 - 6:42We still have this group, almost a billion, over there,
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6:42 - 6:45but that can be ended now.
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6:45 - 6:47The challenge we have now
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6:47 - 6:50is to get away from that,
understand where the majority is, -
6:50 - 6:53and that is very clearly shown in this question.
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6:53 - 6:56We asked, what is the percentage of the world's
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6:56 - 6:57one-year-old children who have got those
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6:57 - 7:00basic vaccines against measles and other things
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7:00 - 7:01that we have had for many years:
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7:01 - 7:0320, 50 or 80 percent?
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7:03 - 7:07Now, this is what the U.S.
public and the Swedish answered. -
7:07 - 7:08Look at the Swedish result:
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7:08 - 7:10you know what the right answer is.
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7:10 - 7:14(Laughter)
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7:14 - 7:18Who the heck is a professor of
global health in that country? -
7:18 - 7:19Well, it's me. It's me.
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7:19 - 7:21(Laughter)
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7:21 - 7:24It's very difficult, this. It's very difficult.
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7:24 - 7:27(Applause)
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7:27 - 7:30However, Ola's approach
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7:30 - 7:34to really measure what we know made headlines,
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7:34 - 7:37and CNN published these results on their web
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7:37 - 7:39and they had the questions there, millions answered,
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7:39 - 7:42and I think there were about 2,000 comments,
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7:42 - 7:45and this was one of the comments.
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7:45 - 7:48"I bet no member of the media
passed the test," he said. -
7:48 - 7:51So Ola told me, "Take these devices.
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7:51 - 7:53You are invited to media conferences.
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7:53 - 7:55Give it to them and measure what the media know."
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7:55 - 7:57And ladies and gentlemen,
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7:57 - 7:59for the first time, the informal results
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7:59 - 8:03from a conference with U.S. media.
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8:03 - 8:08And then, lately, from the European Union media.
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8:08 - 8:09(Laughter)
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8:09 - 8:12You see, the problem is not that people
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8:12 - 8:14don't read and listen to the media.
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8:14 - 8:18The problem is that the
media doesn't know themselves. -
8:18 - 8:19What shall we do about this, Ola?
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8:19 - 8:21Do we have any ideas?
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8:21 - 8:32(Applause)
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8:32 - 8:36Ola Rosling: Yes, I have an idea, but first,
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8:36 - 8:40I'm so sorry that you were beaten by the chimps.
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8:40 - 8:42Fortunately, I will be able to comfort you
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8:42 - 8:47by showing why it was not your fault, actually.
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8:47 - 8:49Then, I will equip you with some tricks
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8:49 - 8:51for beating the chimps in the future.
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8:51 - 8:53That's basically what I will do.
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8:53 - 8:55But first, let's look at why are we so ignorant,
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8:55 - 8:58and it all starts in this place.
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8:58 - 9:02It's Hudiksvall. It's a city in northern Sweden.
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9:02 - 9:05It's a neighborhood where I grew up,
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9:05 - 9:09and it's a neighborhood with a large problem.
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9:09 - 9:11Actually, it has exactly the same problem
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9:11 - 9:14which existed in all the neighborhoods
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9:14 - 9:15where you grew up as well.
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9:15 - 9:18It was not representative. Okay?
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9:18 - 9:20It gave me a very biased view
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9:20 - 9:22of how life is on this planet.
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9:22 - 9:25So this is the first piece of the ignorance puzzle.
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9:25 - 9:27We have a personal bias.
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9:27 - 9:29We have all different experiences
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9:29 - 9:30from communities and people we meet,
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9:30 - 9:33and on top of this, we start school,
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9:33 - 9:35and we add the next problem.
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9:35 - 9:36Well, I like schools,
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9:36 - 9:42but teachers tend to teach outdated worldviews,
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9:42 - 9:44because they learned something
when they went to school, -
9:44 - 9:47and now they describe this world to the students
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9:47 - 9:49without any bad intentions,
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9:49 - 9:51and those books, of course, that are printed
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9:51 - 9:54are outdated in a world that changes.
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9:54 - 9:55And there is really no practice
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9:55 - 9:59to keep the teaching material up to date.
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9:59 - 10:01So that's what we are focusing on.
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10:01 - 10:02So we have these outdated facts
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10:02 - 10:05added on top of our personal bias.
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10:05 - 10:08What happens next is news, okay?
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10:08 - 10:10An excellent journalist knows how to pick
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10:10 - 10:12the story that will make headlines,
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10:12 - 10:15and people will read it because it's sensational.
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10:15 - 10:19Unusual events are more interesting, no?
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10:19 - 10:21And they are exaggerated,
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10:21 - 10:24and especially things we're afraid of.
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10:24 - 10:27A shark attack on a Swedish person
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10:27 - 10:30will get headlines for weeks in Sweden.
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10:30 - 10:34So these three skewed sources of information
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10:34 - 10:37were really hard to get away from.
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10:37 - 10:39They kind of bombard us
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10:39 - 10:43and equip our mind with a lot of strange ideas,
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10:43 - 10:45and on top of it we put the very thing
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10:45 - 10:51that makes us humans, our human intuition.
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10:51 - 10:53It was good in evolution.
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10:53 - 10:54It helped us generalize
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10:54 - 10:56and jump to conclusions very, very fast.
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10:56 - 11:00It helped us exaggerate what we were afraid of,
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11:00 - 11:04and we seek causality where there is none,
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11:04 - 11:09and we then get an illusion of confidence
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11:09 - 11:12where we believe that we are the best car drivers,
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11:12 - 11:13above the average.
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11:13 - 11:15Everybody answered that question,
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11:15 - 11:16"Yeah, I drive cars better."
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11:16 - 11:18Okay, this was good evolutionarily,
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11:18 - 11:20but now when it comes to the worldview,
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11:20 - 11:23it is the exact reason why it's upside down.
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11:23 - 11:26The trends that are increasing are instead falling,
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11:26 - 11:27and the other way around,
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11:27 - 11:31and in this case, the chimps
use our intuition against us, -
11:31 - 11:35and it becomes our weakness instead of our strength.
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11:35 - 11:37It was supposed to be our strength, wasn't it?
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11:37 - 11:40So how do we solve such problems?
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11:40 - 11:41First, we need to measure it,
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11:41 - 11:43and then we need to cure it.
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11:43 - 11:45So by measuring it we can understand
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11:45 - 11:48what is the pattern of ignorance.
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11:48 - 11:49We started the pilot last year,
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11:49 - 11:52and now we're pretty sure that we will encounter
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11:52 - 11:55a lot of ignorance across the whole world,
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11:55 - 11:59and the idea is really to
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11:59 - 12:01scale it up to all domains
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12:01 - 12:03or dimensions of global development,
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12:03 - 12:08such as climate, endangered species, human rights,
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12:08 - 12:11gender equality, energy, finance.
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12:11 - 12:13All different sectors have facts,
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12:13 - 12:15and there are organizations trying to spread
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12:15 - 12:17awareness about these facts.
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12:17 - 12:21So I've started actually contacting some of them,
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12:21 - 12:24like WWF and Amnesty International and UNICEF,
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12:24 - 12:27and asking them, what are your favorite facts
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12:27 - 12:29which you think the public doesn't know?
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12:29 - 12:30Okay, I gather those facts.
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12:30 - 12:34Imagine a long list with, say, 250 facts.
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12:34 - 12:35And then we poll the public
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12:35 - 12:37and see where they score worst.
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12:37 - 12:38So we get a shorter list
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12:38 - 12:39with the terrible results,
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12:39 - 12:42like some few examples from Hans,
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12:42 - 12:44and we have no problem finding these kinds
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12:44 - 12:45of terrible results.
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12:45 - 12:48Okay, this little shortlist, what
are we going to do with it? -
12:48 - 12:52Well, we turn it into a knowledge certificate,
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12:52 - 12:54a global knowledge certificate,
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12:54 - 12:57which you can use, if you're a large organization,
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12:57 - 13:00a school, a university, or maybe a news agency,
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13:00 - 13:04to certify yourself as globally knowledgeable.
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13:04 - 13:07Basically meaning, we don't hire people
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13:07 - 13:09who score like chimpanzees.
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13:09 - 13:12Of course you shouldn't.
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13:12 - 13:14So maybe 10 years from now,
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13:14 - 13:16if this project succeeds,
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13:16 - 13:18you will be sitting in an interview
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13:18 - 13:22having to fill out this crazy global knowledge.
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13:22 - 13:26So now we come to the practical tricks.
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13:26 - 13:28How are you going to succeed?
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13:28 - 13:31There is, of course, one way,
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13:31 - 13:33which is to sit down late nights
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13:33 - 13:35and learn all the facts by heart
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13:35 - 13:37by reading all these reports.
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13:37 - 13:39That will never happen, actually.
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13:39 - 13:42Not even Hans thinks that's going to happen.
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13:42 - 13:43People don't have that time.
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13:43 - 13:46People like shortcuts, and here are the shortcuts.
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13:46 - 13:49We need to turn our intuition into strength again.
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13:49 - 13:51We need to be able to generalize.
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13:51 - 13:53So now I'm going to show you some tricks
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13:53 - 13:55where the misconceptions are turned around
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13:55 - 13:58into rules of thumb.
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13:58 - 14:00Let's start with the first misconception.
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14:00 - 14:02This is very widespread.
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14:02 - 14:04Everything is getting worse.
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14:04 - 14:07You heard it. You thought it yourself.
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14:07 - 14:10The other way to think is, most things improve.
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14:10 - 14:12So you're sitting with a question in front of you
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14:12 - 14:16and you're unsure. You should guess "improve."
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14:16 - 14:19Okay? Don't go for the worse.
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14:19 - 14:21That will help you score better on our tests.
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14:21 - 14:22(Applause)
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14:22 - 14:26That was the first one.
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14:26 - 14:28There are rich and poor
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14:28 - 14:30and the gap is increasing.
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14:30 - 14:31It's a terrible inequality.
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14:31 - 14:33Yeah, it's an unequal world,
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14:33 - 14:36but when you look at the data, it's one hump.
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14:36 - 14:38Okay? If you feel unsure,
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14:38 - 14:40go for "the most people are in the middle."
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14:40 - 14:42That's going to help you get the answer right.
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14:42 - 14:46Now, the next preconceived idea is
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14:46 - 14:50first countries and people need to be very, very rich
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14:50 - 14:52to get the social development
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14:52 - 14:56like girls in school and be ready for natural disasters.
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14:56 - 14:57No, no, no. That's wrong.
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14:57 - 14:59Look: that huge hump in the middle
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14:59 - 15:02already have girls in school.
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15:02 - 15:04So if you are unsure, go for the
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15:04 - 15:05"the majority already have this,"
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15:05 - 15:09like electricity and girls in
school, these kinds of things. -
15:09 - 15:11They're only rules of thumb,
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15:11 - 15:13so of course they don't apply to everything,
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15:13 - 15:15but this is how you can generalize.
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15:15 - 15:17Let's look at the last one.
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15:17 - 15:20If something, yes, this is a good one,
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15:20 - 15:22sharks are dangerous.
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15:22 - 15:27No — well, yes, but they are not so important
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15:27 - 15:30in the global statistics, that is what I'm saying.
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15:30 - 15:32I actually, I'm very afraid of sharks.
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15:32 - 15:35So as soon as I see a question
about things I'm afraid of, -
15:35 - 15:38which might be earthquakes, other religions,
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15:38 - 15:41maybe I'm afraid of terrorists or sharks,
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15:41 - 15:42anything that makes me feel,
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15:42 - 15:45assume you're going to exaggerate the problem.
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15:45 - 15:46That's a rule of thumb.
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15:46 - 15:49Of course there are dangerous
things that are also great. -
15:49 - 15:52Sharks kill very, very few.
That's how you should think. -
15:52 - 15:56With these four rules of thumb,
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15:56 - 15:59you could probably answer better than the chimps,
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15:59 - 16:01because the chimps cannot do this.
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16:01 - 16:04They cannot generalize these kinds of rules.
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16:04 - 16:08And hopefully we can turn your world around
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16:08 - 16:11and we're going to beat the chimps. Okay?
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16:11 - 16:15(Applause)
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16:19 - 16:21That's a systematic approach.
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16:21 - 16:24Now the question, is this important?
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16:24 - 16:27Yeah, it's important to understand poverty,
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16:27 - 16:30extreme poverty and how to fight it,
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16:30 - 16:32and how to bring girls in school.
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16:32 - 16:36When we realize that actually it's
succeeding, we can understand it. -
16:36 - 16:38But is it important for everyone else
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16:38 - 16:40who cares about the rich end of this scale?
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16:40 - 16:42I would say yes, extremely important,
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16:42 - 16:44for the same reason.
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16:44 - 16:47If you have a fact-based worldview of today,
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16:47 - 16:49you might have a chance to understand
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16:49 - 16:50what's coming next in the future.
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16:50 - 16:53We're going back to these two humps in 1975.
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16:53 - 16:54That's when I was born,
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16:54 - 16:57and I selected the West.
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16:57 - 17:01That's the current EU countries and North America.
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17:01 - 17:05Let's now see how the rest and the West compares
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17:05 - 17:07in terms of how rich you are.
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17:07 - 17:09These are the people who can afford
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17:09 - 17:13to fly abroad with an airplane for a vacation.
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17:13 - 17:16In 1975, only 30 percent of them lived
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17:16 - 17:19outside EU and North America.
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17:19 - 17:21But this has changed, okay?
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17:21 - 17:26So first, let's look at the change up till today, 2014.
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17:26 - 17:27Today it's 50/50.
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17:27 - 17:31The Western domination is over, as of today.
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17:31 - 17:33That's nice. So what's going to happen next?
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17:33 - 17:37Do you see the big hump? Did you see how it moved?
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17:37 - 17:43I did a little experiment. I went to the IMF,
International Monetary Fund, website. -
17:43 - 17:47They have a forecast for the next
five years of GDP per capita. -
17:47 - 17:50So I can use that to go five years into the future,
-
17:50 - 17:53assuming the income inequality
of each country is the same. -
17:53 - 17:55I did that, but I went even further.
-
17:55 - 17:58I used those five years for the next 20 years
-
17:58 - 18:03with the same speed, just as an
experiment what might actually happen. -
18:03 - 18:05Let's move into the future.
-
18:05 - 18:10In 2020, it's 57 percent in the rest.
-
18:10 - 18:13In 2025, 63 percent.
-
18:13 - 18:222030, 68. And in 2035, the West is
outnumbered in the rich consumer market. -
18:22 - 18:26These are just projections of
GDP per capita into the future. -
18:26 - 18:28Seventy-three percent of the rich consumers
-
18:28 - 18:32are going to live outside North America and Europe.
-
18:32 - 18:36So yes, I think it's a good idea for
a company to use this certificate -
18:36 - 18:39to make sure to make fact-
based decisions in the future. -
18:39 - 18:41Thank you very much.
-
18:41 - 18:43(Applause)
-
18:48 - 18:50Bruno Giussani: Hans and Ola Rosling!
- Title:
- How not to be ignorant about the world
- Speaker:
- Hans and Ola Rosling
- Description:
-
How much do you know about the world? Hans Rosling, with his famous charts of global population, health and income data (and an extra-extra-long pointer), demonstrates that you have a high statistical chance of being quite wrong about what you think you know. Play along with his audience quiz — then, from Hans’ son Ola, learn 4 ways to quickly get less ignorant.
- Video Language:
- English
- Team:
- closed TED
- Project:
- TEDTalks
- Duration:
- 20:31
Morton Bast edited English subtitles for How not to be ignorant about the world | ||
Morton Bast edited English subtitles for How not to be ignorant about the world | ||
Madeleine Aronson approved English subtitles for How not to be ignorant about the world | ||
Madeleine Aronson edited English subtitles for How not to be ignorant about the world | ||
Madeleine Aronson edited English subtitles for How not to be ignorant about the world | ||
Madeleine Aronson edited English subtitles for How not to be ignorant about the world | ||
Thu-Huong Ha accepted English subtitles for How not to be ignorant about the world | ||
Thu-Huong Ha edited English subtitles for How not to be ignorant about the world |