0:00:00.663,0:00:03.066 Hans Rosling: I'm going to ask you 0:00:03.066,0:00:04.391 three multiple choice questions. 0:00:04.391,0:00:08.122 Use this device. Use this device to answer. 0:00:08.122,0:00:10.677 The first question is, how did the number 0:00:10.677,0:00:12.798 of deaths per year 0:00:12.798,0:00:14.090 from natural disaster, 0:00:14.090,0:00:16.691 how did that change during the last century? 0:00:16.691,0:00:18.070 Did it more than double, 0:00:18.070,0:00:20.852 did it remain about the same in the world as a whole, 0:00:20.852,0:00:23.226 or did it decrease to less than half? 0:00:23.226,0:00:25.630 Please answer A, B or C. 0:00:25.630,0:00:29.730 I see lots of answers. This is much[br]faster than I do it at universities. 0:00:29.730,0:00:32.887 They are so slow. They keep[br]thinking, thinking, thinking. 0:00:32.887,0:00:34.909 Oh, very, very good. 0:00:34.909,0:00:36.772 And we go to the next question. 0:00:36.772,0:00:39.431 So how long did women 30 years old 0:00:39.431,0:00:41.527 in the world go to school: 0:00:41.527,0:00:43.561 seven years, five years or three years? 0:00:43.561,0:00:50.064 A, B or C? Please answer. 0:00:50.064,0:00:52.102 And we go to the next question. 0:00:52.102,0:00:56.023 In the last 20 years, how did the percentage 0:00:56.023,0:00:57.850 of people in the world 0:00:57.850,0:01:00.067 who live in extreme poverty change? 0:01:00.067,0:01:02.628 Extreme poverty — not having [br]enough food for the day. 0:01:02.628,0:01:04.689 Did it almost double, 0:01:04.689,0:01:06.238 did it remain more or less the same, 0:01:06.238,0:01:07.751 or did it halve? 0:01:07.751,0:01:11.771 A, B or C? 0:01:11.771,0:01:14.927 Now, answers. 0:01:14.927,0:01:16.021 You see, 0:01:16.021,0:01:17.746 deaths from natural disasters in the world, 0:01:17.746,0:01:19.668 you can see it from this graph here, 0:01:19.668,0:01:22.448 from 1900 to 2000. 0:01:22.448,0:01:25.703 In 1900, there was about half a million people 0:01:25.703,0:01:27.790 who died every year from natural disasters: 0:01:27.790,0:01:32.887 floods, earthquakes, volcanic [br]eruption, whatever, droughts. 0:01:32.887,0:01:35.607 And then, how did that change? 0:01:35.607,0:01:39.093 Gapminder asked the public in Sweden. 0:01:39.093,0:01:40.952 This is how they answered. 0:01:40.952,0:01:42.881 The Swedish public answered like this: 0:01:42.881,0:01:44.353 Fifty percent thought it had doubled, 0:01:44.353,0:01:46.558 38 percent said it's more or less the same, 0:01:46.558,0:01:48.656 12 said it had halved. 0:01:48.656,0:01:51.308 This is the best data from the disaster researchers, 0:01:51.308,0:01:54.274 and it goes up and down, 0:01:54.274,0:01:56.826 and it goes to the Second World War, 0:01:56.826,0:02:00.226 and after that it starts to fall and it keeps falling 0:02:00.226,0:02:02.072 and it's down to much less than half. 0:02:02.072,0:02:04.680 The world has been much, much more capable 0:02:04.680,0:02:06.294 as the decades go by 0:02:06.294,0:02:08.685 to protect people from this, you know. 0:02:08.685,0:02:11.551 So only 12 percent of the Swedes know this. 0:02:11.551,0:02:14.042 So I went to the zoo and I asked the chimps. 0:02:14.042,0:02:23.888 (Laughter) (Applause) 0:02:27.458,0:02:31.257 The chimps don't watch the evening news, 0:02:31.257,0:02:32.715 so the chimps, 0:02:32.715,0:02:36.147 they choose by random, so the[br]Swedes answer worse than random. 0:02:36.147,0:02:39.086 Now how did you do? 0:02:39.086,0:02:42.048 That's you. 0:02:42.048,0:02:44.273 You were beaten by the chimps. 0:02:44.273,0:02:46.063 (Laughter) 0:02:46.063,0:02:49.038 But it was close. 0:02:49.038,0:02:53.059 You were three times better than the Swedes, 0:02:53.059,0:02:54.302 but that's not enough. 0:02:54.302,0:02:56.884 You shouldn't compare yourself to Swedes. 0:02:56.884,0:03:00.415 You must have higher ambitions in the world. 0:03:00.415,0:03:03.823 Let's look at the next answer here: women in school. 0:03:03.823,0:03:05.839 Here, you can see men went eight years. 0:03:05.839,0:03:07.620 How long did women go to school? 0:03:07.620,0:03:10.369 Well, we asked the Swedes like this, 0:03:10.369,0:03:12.586 and that gives you a hint, doesn't it? 0:03:12.586,0:03:14.948 The right answer is probably the one 0:03:14.948,0:03:17.683 the fewest Swedes picked, isn't it? 0:03:17.683,0:03:19.186 (Laughter) 0:03:19.186,0:03:21.624 Let's see, let's see. Here we come. 0:03:21.624,0:03:26.025 Yes, yes, yes, women have almost caught up. 0:03:26.025,0:03:29.438 This is the U.S. public. 0:03:29.438,0:03:33.313 And this is you. Here you come. 0:03:33.313,0:03:37.325 Ooh. 0:03:37.325,0:03:39.154 Well, congratulations, you're[br]twice as good as the Swedes, 0:03:39.154,0:03:41.574 but you don't need me — 0:03:41.574,0:03:46.388 So how come? I think it's like this, 0:03:46.388,0:03:49.110 that everyone is aware that there are countries 0:03:49.110,0:03:50.214 and there are areas 0:03:50.214,0:03:52.352 where girls have great difficulties. 0:03:52.352,0:03:54.260 They are stopped when they go to school, 0:03:54.260,0:03:56.325 and it's disgusting. 0:03:56.325,0:03:58.222 But in the majority of the world, 0:03:58.222,0:03:59.909 where most people in the world live, 0:03:59.909,0:04:02.891 most countries, girls today go to school 0:04:02.891,0:04:05.430 as long as boys, more or less. 0:04:05.430,0:04:07.489 That doesn't mean that gender equity is achieved, 0:04:07.489,0:04:09.573 not at all. 0:04:09.573,0:04:14.114 They still are confined to terrible, terrible limitations, 0:04:14.114,0:04:16.346 but schooling is there in the world today. 0:04:16.346,0:04:20.441 Now, we miss the majority. 0:04:20.441,0:04:23.764 When you answer, you answer[br]according to the worst places, 0:04:23.764,0:04:26.620 and there you are right, but you miss the majority. 0:04:26.620,0:04:28.096 What about poverty? 0:04:28.096,0:04:30.999 Well, it's very clear that poverty here 0:04:30.999,0:04:32.774 was almost halved, 0:04:32.774,0:04:34.453 and in U.S., when we asked the public, 0:04:34.453,0:04:38.437 only five percent got it right. 0:04:38.437,0:04:41.306 And you? 0:04:41.306,0:04:45.164 Ah, you almost made it to the chimps. 0:04:45.164,0:04:47.525 (Laughter) (Applause) 0:04:47.525,0:04:53.142 That little, just a few of you! 0:04:53.142,0:04:56.821 There must be preconceived ideas, you know. 0:04:56.821,0:04:58.615 And many in the rich countries, 0:04:58.615,0:05:02.275 they think that oh, we can never end extreme poverty. 0:05:02.275,0:05:03.928 Of course they think so, 0:05:03.928,0:05:06.892 because they don't even know what has happened. 0:05:06.892,0:05:09.242 The first thing to think about the future 0:05:09.242,0:05:11.263 is to know about the present. 0:05:11.263,0:05:14.315 These questions were a few of the first ones 0:05:14.315,0:05:17.700 in the pilot phase of the Ignorance Project 0:05:17.700,0:05:20.720 in Gapminder Foundation that we run, 0:05:20.720,0:05:23.516 and it was started, this project, last year 0:05:23.516,0:05:27.922 by my boss, and also my son, Ola Rosling. (Laughter) 0:05:27.922,0:05:29.504 He's cofounder and director, 0:05:29.504,0:05:31.048 and he wanted, Ola told me 0:05:31.048,0:05:33.608 we have to be more systematic 0:05:33.608,0:05:35.481 when we fight devastating ignorance. 0:05:35.481,0:05:37.699 So already the pilots reveal this, 0:05:37.699,0:05:40.909 that so many in the public score worse than random, 0:05:40.909,0:05:42.992 so we have to think about preconceived ideas, 0:05:42.992,0:05:45.020 and one of the main preconceived ideas 0:05:45.020,0:05:46.889 is about world income distribution. 0:05:46.889,0:05:50.720 Look here. This is how it was in 1975. 0:05:50.720,0:05:53.939 It's the number of people on each income, 0:05:53.939,0:05:56.830 from one dollar a day — 0:05:56.830,0:05:59.281 (Applause) 0:05:59.281,0:06:01.356 See, there was one hump here, 0:06:01.356,0:06:03.254 around one dollar a day, 0:06:03.254,0:06:04.710 and then there was one hump here 0:06:04.710,0:06:06.725 somewhere between 10 and 100 dollars. 0:06:06.725,0:06:08.471 The world was two groups. 0:06:08.471,0:06:12.081 It was a camel world, like a camel with two humps, 0:06:12.081,0:06:14.093 the poor ones and the rich ones, 0:06:14.093,0:06:15.657 and there were fewer in between. 0:06:15.657,0:06:17.826 But look how this has changed: 0:06:17.826,0:06:19.652 As I go forward, what has changed, 0:06:19.652,0:06:21.308 the world population has grown, 0:06:21.308,0:06:24.076 and the humps start to merge. 0:06:24.076,0:06:26.846 The lower humps merged with the upper hump, 0:06:26.846,0:06:29.973 and the camel dies and we have a dromedary world 0:06:29.973,0:06:32.228 with one hump only. 0:06:32.228,0:06:34.152 The percent in poverty has decreased. 0:06:34.152,0:06:35.729 Still it's appalling 0:06:35.729,0:06:38.930 that so many remain in extreme poverty. 0:06:38.930,0:06:41.953 We still have this group, almost a billion, over there, 0:06:41.953,0:06:45.002 but that can be ended now. 0:06:45.002,0:06:47.305 The challenge we have now 0:06:47.305,0:06:50.113 is to get away from that,[br]understand where the majority is, 0:06:50.113,0:06:53.357 and that is very clearly shown in this question. 0:06:53.357,0:06:55.590 We asked, what is the percentage of the world's 0:06:55.590,0:06:57.244 one-year-old children who have got those 0:06:57.244,0:06:59.854 basic vaccines against measles and other things 0:06:59.854,0:07:01.347 that we have had for many years: 0:07:01.347,0:07:03.369 20, 50 or 80 percent? 0:07:03.369,0:07:07.442 Now, this is what the U.S.[br]public and the Swedish answered. 0:07:07.442,0:07:08.318 Look at the Swedish result: 0:07:08.318,0:07:10.380 you know what the right answer is. 0:07:10.380,0:07:14.053 (Laughter) 0:07:14.053,0:07:17.556 Who the heck is a professor of[br]global health in that country? 0:07:17.556,0:07:19.228 Well, it's me. It's me. 0:07:19.228,0:07:21.190 (Laughter) 0:07:21.190,0:07:23.672 It's very difficult, this. It's very difficult. 0:07:23.672,0:07:26.770 (Applause) 0:07:26.770,0:07:30.484 However, Ola's approach 0:07:30.484,0:07:33.642 to really measure what we know made headlines, 0:07:33.642,0:07:36.705 and CNN published these results on their web 0:07:36.705,0:07:38.852 and they had the questions there, millions answered, 0:07:38.852,0:07:42.334 and I think there were about 2,000 comments, 0:07:42.334,0:07:44.647 and this was one of the comments. 0:07:44.647,0:07:48.191 "I bet no member of the media[br]passed the test," he said. 0:07:48.191,0:07:50.830 So Ola told me, "Take these devices. 0:07:50.830,0:07:52.535 You are invited to media conferences. 0:07:52.535,0:07:54.812 Give it to them and measure what the media know." 0:07:54.812,0:07:56.736 And ladies and gentlemen, 0:07:56.736,0:07:59.413 for the first time, the informal results 0:07:59.413,0:08:03.338 from a conference with U.S. media. 0:08:03.338,0:08:08.224 And then, lately, from the European Union media. 0:08:08.224,0:08:09.492 (Laughter) 0:08:09.492,0:08:11.697 You see, the problem is not that people 0:08:11.697,0:08:13.645 don't read and listen to the media. 0:08:13.645,0:08:17.864 The problem is that the[br]media doesn't know themselves. 0:08:17.864,0:08:19.445 What shall we do about this, Ola? 0:08:19.445,0:08:20.943 Do we have any ideas? 0:08:20.943,0:08:32.037 (Applause) 0:08:32.037,0:08:35.746 Ola Rosling: Yes, I have an idea, but first, 0:08:35.746,0:08:39.561 I'm so sorry that you were beaten by the chimps. 0:08:39.561,0:08:42.194 Fortunately, I will be able to comfort you 0:08:42.194,0:08:46.753 by showing why it was not your fault, actually. 0:08:46.753,0:08:48.775 Then, I will equip you with some tricks 0:08:48.775,0:08:50.865 for beating the chimps in the future. 0:08:50.865,0:08:53.079 That's basically what I will do. 0:08:53.079,0:08:55.282 But first, let's look at why are we so ignorant, 0:08:55.282,0:08:57.889 and it all starts in this place. 0:08:57.889,0:09:01.579 It's Hudiksvall. It's a city in northern Sweden. 0:09:01.579,0:09:05.376 It's a neighborhood where I grew up, 0:09:05.376,0:09:08.977 and it's a neighborhood with a large problem. 0:09:08.977,0:09:10.963 Actually, it has exactly the same problem 0:09:10.963,0:09:13.572 which existed in all the neighborhoods 0:09:13.572,0:09:14.920 where you grew up as well. 0:09:14.920,0:09:17.582 It was not representative. Okay? 0:09:17.582,0:09:20.025 It gave me a very biased view 0:09:20.025,0:09:22.373 of how life is on this planet. 0:09:22.373,0:09:25.365 So this is the first piece of the ignorance puzzle. 0:09:25.365,0:09:26.637 We have a personal bias. 0:09:26.637,0:09:28.750 We have all different experiences 0:09:28.750,0:09:30.390 from communities and people we meet, 0:09:30.390,0:09:33.377 and on top of this, we start school, 0:09:33.377,0:09:35.298 and we add the next problem. 0:09:35.298,0:09:36.442 Well, I like schools, 0:09:36.442,0:09:41.529 but teachers tend to teach outdated worldviews, 0:09:41.529,0:09:44.130 because they learned something[br]when they went to school, 0:09:44.130,0:09:46.683 and now they describe this world to the students 0:09:46.683,0:09:48.889 without any bad intentions, 0:09:48.889,0:09:51.118 and those books, of course, that are printed 0:09:51.118,0:09:54.049 are outdated in a world that changes. 0:09:54.049,0:09:55.296 And there is really no practice 0:09:55.296,0:09:58.545 to keep the teaching material up to date. 0:09:58.545,0:10:00.529 So that's what we are focusing on. 0:10:00.529,0:10:02.098 So we have these outdated facts 0:10:02.098,0:10:05.032 added on top of our personal bias. 0:10:05.032,0:10:07.508 What happens next is news, okay? 0:10:07.508,0:10:10.025 An excellent journalist knows how to pick 0:10:10.025,0:10:12.431 the story that will make headlines, 0:10:12.431,0:10:15.030 and people will read it because it's sensational. 0:10:15.030,0:10:18.995 Unusual events are more interesting, no? 0:10:18.995,0:10:20.710 And they are exaggerated, 0:10:20.710,0:10:24.139 and especially things we're afraid of. 0:10:24.139,0:10:26.567 A shark attack on a Swedish person 0:10:26.567,0:10:30.282 will get headlines for weeks in Sweden. 0:10:30.282,0:10:34.001 So these three skewed sources of information 0:10:34.001,0:10:37.276 were really hard to get away from. 0:10:37.276,0:10:38.907 They kind of bombard us 0:10:38.907,0:10:42.713 and equip our mind with a lot of strange ideas, 0:10:42.713,0:10:45.450 and on top of it we put the very thing 0:10:45.450,0:10:50.716 that makes us humans, our human intuition. 0:10:50.716,0:10:52.892 It was good in evolution. 0:10:52.892,0:10:54.150 It helped us generalize 0:10:54.150,0:10:56.408 and jump to conclusions very, very fast. 0:10:56.408,0:11:00.376 It helped us exaggerate what we were afraid of, 0:11:00.376,0:11:03.660 and we seek causality where there is none, 0:11:03.660,0:11:08.597 and we then get an illusion of confidence 0:11:08.597,0:11:11.603 where we believe that we are the best car drivers, 0:11:11.603,0:11:13.343 above the average. 0:11:13.343,0:11:14.705 Everybody answered that question, 0:11:14.705,0:11:15.974 "Yeah, I drive cars better." 0:11:15.974,0:11:18.271 Okay, this was good evolutionarily, 0:11:18.271,0:11:20.104 but now when it comes to the worldview, 0:11:20.104,0:11:22.966 it is the exact reason why it's upside down. 0:11:22.966,0:11:25.889 The trends that are increasing are instead falling, 0:11:25.889,0:11:27.471 and the other way around, 0:11:27.471,0:11:31.471 and in this case, the chimps[br]use our intuition against us, 0:11:31.471,0:11:34.911 and it becomes our weakness instead of our strength. 0:11:34.911,0:11:37.394 It was supposed to be our strength, wasn't it? 0:11:37.394,0:11:39.766 So how do we solve such problems? 0:11:39.766,0:11:41.441 First, we need to measure it, 0:11:41.441,0:11:42.843 and then we need to cure it. 0:11:42.843,0:11:45.375 So by measuring it we can understand 0:11:45.375,0:11:47.699 what is the pattern of ignorance. 0:11:47.699,0:11:49.235 We started the pilot last year, 0:11:49.235,0:11:51.704 and now we're pretty sure that we will encounter 0:11:51.704,0:11:55.285 a lot of ignorance across the whole world, 0:11:55.285,0:11:58.898 and the idea is really to 0:11:58.898,0:12:00.875 scale it up to all domains 0:12:00.875,0:12:03.423 or dimensions of global development, 0:12:03.423,0:12:07.505 such as climate, endangered species, human rights, 0:12:07.505,0:12:10.715 gender equality, energy, finance. 0:12:10.715,0:12:13.448 All different sectors have facts, 0:12:13.448,0:12:15.044 and there are organizations trying to spread 0:12:15.044,0:12:16.970 awareness about these facts. 0:12:16.970,0:12:20.674 So I've started actually contacting some of them, 0:12:20.674,0:12:24.015 like WWF and Amnesty International and UNICEF, 0:12:24.015,0:12:26.613 and asking them, what are your favorite facts 0:12:26.613,0:12:28.506 which you think the public doesn't know? 0:12:28.506,0:12:30.084 Okay, I gather those facts. 0:12:30.084,0:12:33.619 Imagine a long list with, say, 250 facts. 0:12:33.619,0:12:34.918 And then we poll the public 0:12:34.918,0:12:36.855 and see where they score worst. 0:12:36.855,0:12:38.201 So we get a shorter list 0:12:38.201,0:12:39.257 with the terrible results, 0:12:39.257,0:12:41.806 like some few examples from Hans, 0:12:41.806,0:12:43.723 and we have no problem finding these kinds 0:12:43.723,0:12:44.938 of terrible results. 0:12:44.938,0:12:47.783 Okay, this little shortlist, what[br]are we going to do with it? 0:12:47.783,0:12:51.909 Well, we turn it into a knowledge certificate, 0:12:51.909,0:12:53.771 a global knowledge certificate, 0:12:53.771,0:12:56.674 which you can use, if you're a large organization, 0:12:56.674,0:13:00.429 a school, a university, or maybe a news agency, 0:13:00.429,0:13:04.057 to certify yourself as globally knowledgeable. 0:13:04.057,0:13:07.020 Basically meaning, we don't hire people 0:13:07.020,0:13:09.290 who score like chimpanzees. 0:13:09.290,0:13:11.650 Of course you shouldn't. 0:13:11.650,0:13:13.921 So maybe 10 years from now, 0:13:13.921,0:13:15.913 if this project succeeds, 0:13:15.913,0:13:18.161 you will be sitting in an interview 0:13:18.161,0:13:22.367 having to fill out this crazy global knowledge. 0:13:22.367,0:13:25.730 So now we come to the practical tricks. 0:13:25.730,0:13:27.634 How are you going to succeed? 0:13:27.634,0:13:31.213 There is, of course, one way, 0:13:31.213,0:13:32.950 which is to sit down late nights 0:13:32.950,0:13:35.105 and learn all the facts by heart 0:13:35.105,0:13:36.873 by reading all these reports. 0:13:36.873,0:13:38.885 That will never happen, actually. 0:13:38.885,0:13:41.594 Not even Hans thinks that's going to happen. 0:13:41.594,0:13:42.967 People don't have that time. 0:13:42.967,0:13:46.350 People like shortcuts, and here are the shortcuts. 0:13:46.350,0:13:49.124 We need to turn our intuition into strength again. 0:13:49.124,0:13:50.568 We need to be able to generalize. 0:13:50.568,0:13:52.673 So now I'm going to show you some tricks 0:13:52.673,0:13:55.223 where the misconceptions are turned around 0:13:55.223,0:13:58.431 into rules of thumb. 0:13:58.431,0:14:00.445 Let's start with the first misconception. 0:14:00.445,0:14:02.082 This is very widespread. 0:14:02.082,0:14:03.948 Everything is getting worse. 0:14:03.948,0:14:07.218 You heard it. You thought it yourself. 0:14:07.218,0:14:10.247 The other way to think is, most things improve. 0:14:10.247,0:14:12.383 So you're sitting with a question in front of you 0:14:12.383,0:14:15.616 and you're unsure. You should guess "improve." 0:14:15.616,0:14:18.600 Okay? Don't go for the worse. 0:14:18.600,0:14:20.963 That will help you score better on our tests. 0:14:20.963,0:14:22.179 (Applause) 0:14:22.179,0:14:26.405 That was the first one. 0:14:26.405,0:14:28.164 There are rich and poor 0:14:28.164,0:14:29.630 and the gap is increasing. 0:14:29.630,0:14:31.285 It's a terrible inequality. 0:14:31.285,0:14:33.486 Yeah, it's an unequal world, 0:14:33.486,0:14:35.811 but when you look at the data, it's one hump. 0:14:35.811,0:14:37.665 Okay? If you feel unsure, 0:14:37.665,0:14:40.418 go for "the most people are in the middle." 0:14:40.418,0:14:42.401 That's going to help you get the answer right. 0:14:42.401,0:14:46.108 Now, the next preconceived idea is 0:14:46.108,0:14:49.733 first countries and people need to be very, very rich 0:14:49.733,0:14:52.059 to get the social development 0:14:52.059,0:14:55.510 like girls in school and be ready for natural disasters. 0:14:55.510,0:14:57.196 No, no, no. That's wrong. 0:14:57.196,0:14:59.316 Look: that huge hump in the middle 0:14:59.316,0:15:01.759 already have girls in school. 0:15:01.759,0:15:04.087 So if you are unsure, go for the 0:15:04.087,0:15:05.482 "the majority already have this," 0:15:05.482,0:15:08.525 like electricity and girls in[br]school, these kinds of things. 0:15:08.525,0:15:10.741 They're only rules of thumb, 0:15:10.741,0:15:13.131 so of course they don't apply to everything, 0:15:13.131,0:15:14.788 but this is how you can generalize. 0:15:14.788,0:15:16.753 Let's look at the last one. 0:15:16.753,0:15:20.054 If something, yes, this is a good one, 0:15:20.054,0:15:22.227 sharks are dangerous. 0:15:22.227,0:15:26.626 No — well, yes, but they are not so important 0:15:26.626,0:15:29.602 in the global statistics, that is what I'm saying. 0:15:29.602,0:15:32.133 I actually, I'm very afraid of sharks. 0:15:32.133,0:15:34.977 So as soon as I see a question[br]about things I'm afraid of, 0:15:34.977,0:15:37.910 which might be earthquakes, other religions, 0:15:37.910,0:15:40.948 maybe I'm afraid of terrorists or sharks, 0:15:40.948,0:15:42.107 anything that makes me feel, 0:15:42.107,0:15:44.608 assume you're going to exaggerate the problem. 0:15:44.608,0:15:46.445 That's a rule of thumb. 0:15:46.445,0:15:48.604 Of course there are dangerous [br]things that are also great. 0:15:48.604,0:15:52.189 Sharks kill very, very few.[br]That's how you should think. 0:15:52.189,0:15:55.927 With these four rules of thumb, 0:15:55.927,0:15:59.287 you could probably answer better than the chimps, 0:15:59.287,0:16:01.241 because the chimps cannot do this. 0:16:01.241,0:16:03.844 They cannot generalize these kinds of rules. 0:16:03.844,0:16:07.856 And hopefully we can turn your world around 0:16:07.856,0:16:10.691 and we're going to beat the chimps. Okay? 0:16:10.691,0:16:14.612 (Applause) 0:16:19.160,0:16:21.248 That's a systematic approach. 0:16:21.248,0:16:23.812 Now the question, is this important? 0:16:23.812,0:16:26.538 Yeah, it's important to understand poverty, 0:16:26.538,0:16:29.785 extreme poverty and how to fight it, 0:16:29.785,0:16:31.830 and how to bring girls in school. 0:16:31.830,0:16:36.170 When we realize that actually it's[br]succeeding, we can understand it. 0:16:36.170,0:16:37.982 But is it important for everyone else 0:16:37.982,0:16:40.436 who cares about the rich end of this scale? 0:16:40.436,0:16:42.480 I would say yes, extremely important, 0:16:42.480,0:16:43.989 for the same reason. 0:16:43.989,0:16:47.054 If you have a fact-based worldview of today, 0:16:47.054,0:16:48.672 you might have a chance to understand 0:16:48.672,0:16:50.426 what's coming next in the future. 0:16:50.426,0:16:52.864 We're going back to these two humps in 1975. 0:16:52.864,0:16:54.214 That's when I was born, 0:16:54.214,0:16:57.233 and I selected the West. 0:16:57.233,0:17:01.416 That's the current EU countries and North America. 0:17:01.416,0:17:04.799 Let's now see how the rest and the West compares 0:17:04.799,0:17:06.880 in terms of how rich you are. 0:17:06.880,0:17:09.131 These are the people who can afford 0:17:09.131,0:17:12.709 to fly abroad with an airplane for a vacation. 0:17:12.709,0:17:16.017 In 1975, only 30 percent of them lived 0:17:16.017,0:17:18.984 outside EU and North America. 0:17:18.984,0:17:21.313 But this has changed, okay? 0:17:21.313,0:17:26.056 So first, let's look at the change up till today, 2014. 0:17:26.056,0:17:27.444 Today it's 50/50. 0:17:27.444,0:17:31.125 The Western domination is over, as of today. 0:17:31.125,0:17:33.324 That's nice. So what's going to happen next? 0:17:33.324,0:17:36.567 Do you see the big hump? Did you see how it moved? 0:17:36.567,0:17:42.598 I did a little experiment. I went to the IMF,[br]International Monetary Fund, website. 0:17:42.598,0:17:46.761 They have a forecast for the next [br]five years of GDP per capita. 0:17:46.761,0:17:49.778 So I can use that to go five years into the future, 0:17:49.778,0:17:53.113 assuming the income inequality [br]of each country is the same. 0:17:53.113,0:17:55.040 I did that, but I went even further. 0:17:55.040,0:17:58.218 I used those five years for the next 20 years 0:17:58.218,0:18:03.495 with the same speed, just as an [br]experiment what might actually happen. 0:18:03.495,0:18:04.862 Let's move into the future. 0:18:04.862,0:18:10.082 In 2020, it's 57 percent in the rest. 0:18:10.082,0:18:13.118 In 2025, 63 percent. 0:18:13.118,0:18:22.355 2030, 68. And in 2035, the West is [br]outnumbered in the rich consumer market. 0:18:22.355,0:18:25.702 These are just projections of [br]GDP per capita into the future. 0:18:25.702,0:18:28.057 Seventy-three percent of the rich consumers 0:18:28.057,0:18:31.675 are going to live outside North America and Europe. 0:18:31.675,0:18:35.873 So yes, I think it's a good idea for [br]a company to use this certificate 0:18:35.873,0:18:39.280 to make sure to make fact-[br]based decisions in the future. 0:18:39.280,0:18:40.756 Thank you very much. 0:18:40.756,0:18:43.257 (Applause) 0:18:48.184,0:18:50.236 Bruno Giussani: Hans and Ola Rosling!