Why I must speak out about climate change
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0:00 - 0:02What do I know
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0:02 - 0:04that would cause me,
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0:04 - 0:06a reticent, Midwestern scientist,
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0:06 - 0:09to get myself arrested
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0:09 - 0:12in front of the White House protesting?
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0:12 - 0:14And what would you do
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0:14 - 0:16if you knew what I know?
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0:16 - 0:20Let's start with how I got to this point.
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0:20 - 0:22I was lucky to grow up
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0:22 - 0:25at a time when it was not difficult
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0:25 - 0:27for the child of a tenant farmer
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0:27 - 0:29to make his way to the state university.
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0:29 - 0:32And I was really lucky
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0:32 - 0:34to go to the University of Iowa
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0:34 - 0:37where I could study under Professor James Van Allen
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0:37 - 0:39who built instruments
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0:39 - 0:41for the first U.S. satellites.
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0:41 - 0:44Professor Van Allen told me
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0:44 - 0:47about observations of Venus,
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0:47 - 0:49that there was intense microwave radiation.
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0:49 - 0:52Did it mean that Venus had an ionosphere?
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0:52 - 0:54Or was Venus extremely hot?
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0:54 - 0:56The right answer,
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0:56 - 1:01confirmed by the Soviet Venera spacecraft,
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1:01 - 1:04was that Venus was very hot --
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1:04 - 1:06900 degrees Fahrenheit.
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1:06 - 1:08And it was kept hot
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1:08 - 1:11by a thick carbon dioxide atmosphere.
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1:11 - 1:13I was fortunate to join NASA
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1:13 - 1:15and successfully propose
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1:15 - 1:17an experiment to fly to Venus.
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1:17 - 1:20Our instrument took this image
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1:20 - 1:22of the veil of Venus,
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1:22 - 1:24which turned out to be
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1:24 - 1:27a smog of sulfuric acid.
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1:27 - 1:30But while our instrument was being built,
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1:30 - 1:32I became involved in calculations
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1:32 - 1:34of the greenhouse effect
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1:34 - 1:36here on Earth,
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1:36 - 1:38because we realized
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1:38 - 1:41that our atmospheric composition was changing.
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1:41 - 1:43Eventually, I resigned
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1:43 - 1:45as principal investigator
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1:45 - 1:47on our Venus experiment
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1:47 - 1:50because a planet changing before our eyes
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1:50 - 1:52is more interesting and important.
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1:52 - 1:55Its changes will affect all of humanity.
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1:55 - 1:57The greenhouse effect had been well understood
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1:57 - 1:59for more than a century.
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1:59 - 2:01British physicist John Tyndall,
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2:01 - 2:03in the 1850's,
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2:03 - 2:05made laboratory measurements
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2:05 - 2:07of the infrared radiation,
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2:07 - 2:09which is heat.
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2:09 - 2:12And he showed that gasses such as CO2 absorb heat,
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2:12 - 2:15thus acting like a blanket
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2:15 - 2:17warming Earth's surface.
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2:17 - 2:19I worked with other scientists
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2:19 - 2:23to analyze Earth climate observations.
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2:23 - 2:25In 1981,
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2:25 - 2:28we published an article in Science magazine
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2:28 - 2:30concluding that observed warming
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2:30 - 2:32of 0.4 degrees Celsius
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2:32 - 2:34in the prior century
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2:34 - 2:36was consistent with the greenhouse effect
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2:36 - 2:38of increasing CO2.
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2:38 - 2:41That Earth would likely warm in the 1980's,
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2:41 - 2:43and warming would exceed
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2:43 - 2:45the noise level of random weather
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2:45 - 2:47by the end of the century.
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2:47 - 2:50We also said that the 21st century
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2:50 - 2:52would see shifting climate zones,
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2:52 - 2:54creation of drought-prone regions
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2:54 - 2:56in North America and Asia,
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2:56 - 2:59erosion of ice sheets, rising sea levels
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2:59 - 3:02and opening of the fabled Northwest Passage.
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3:02 - 3:04All of these impacts
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3:04 - 3:06have since either happened
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3:06 - 3:08or are now well under way.
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3:08 - 3:12That paper was reported on the front page of the New York Times
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3:12 - 3:14and led to me testifying to Congress
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3:14 - 3:16in the 1980's,
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3:16 - 3:19testimony in which I emphasized
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3:19 - 3:22that global warming increases both extremes
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3:22 - 3:25of the Earth's water cycle.
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3:25 - 3:27Heatwaves and droughts on one hand,
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3:27 - 3:29directly from the warming,
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3:29 - 3:31but also, because a warmer atmosphere
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3:31 - 3:33holds more water vapor
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3:33 - 3:35with its latent energy,
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3:35 - 3:37rainfall will become
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3:37 - 3:39in more extreme events.
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3:39 - 3:42There will be stronger storms and greater flooding.
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3:42 - 3:45Global warming hoopla
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3:45 - 3:47became time-consuming
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3:47 - 3:49and distracted me from doing science --
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3:49 - 3:51partly because I had complained
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3:51 - 3:54that the White House altered my testimony.
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3:54 - 3:56So I decided to go back
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3:56 - 3:58to strictly doing science
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3:58 - 4:02and leave the communication to others.
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4:02 - 4:05By 15 years later,
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4:05 - 4:08evidence of global warming was much stronger.
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4:08 - 4:11Most of the things mentioned in our 1981 paper
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4:11 - 4:13were facts.
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4:13 - 4:16I had the privilege to speak twice
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4:16 - 4:18to the president's climate task force.
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4:18 - 4:21But energy policies continued to focus
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4:21 - 4:24on finding more fossil fuels.
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4:24 - 4:27By then we had two grandchildren,
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4:27 - 4:29Sophie and Connor.
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4:29 - 4:31I decided
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4:31 - 4:33that I did not want them in the future
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4:33 - 4:35to say, "Opa understood what was happening,
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4:35 - 4:37but he didn't make it clear."
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4:37 - 4:40So I decided to give a public talk
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4:40 - 4:43criticizing the lack of an appropriate energy policy.
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4:43 - 4:46I gave the talk at the University of Iowa in 2004
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4:46 - 4:49and at the 2005 meeting
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4:49 - 4:52of the American Geophysical Union.
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4:52 - 4:54This led to calls
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4:54 - 4:56from the White House to NASA headquarters
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4:56 - 4:59and I was told that I could not give any talks or speak with the media
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4:59 - 5:02without prior explicit approval
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5:02 - 5:05by NASA headquarters.
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5:05 - 5:07After I informed the New York Times
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5:07 - 5:09about these restrictions,
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5:09 - 5:12NASA was forced to end the censorship.
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5:12 - 5:14But there were consequences.
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5:14 - 5:16I had been using the first line
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5:16 - 5:18of the NASA mission statement,
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5:18 - 5:21"To understand and protect the home planet,"
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5:21 - 5:23to justify my talks.
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5:23 - 5:25Soon the first line of the mission statement
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5:25 - 5:29was deleted, never to appear again.
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5:29 - 5:31Over the next few years
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5:31 - 5:33I was drawn more and more
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5:33 - 5:36into trying to communicate the urgency
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5:36 - 5:39of a change in energy policies,
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5:39 - 5:42while still researching the physics of climate change.
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5:42 - 5:45Let me describe the most important conclusion from the physics --
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5:45 - 5:48first, from Earth's energy balance
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5:48 - 5:52and, second, from Earth's climate history.
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5:52 - 5:54Adding CO2 to the air
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5:54 - 5:57is like throwing another blanket on the bed.
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5:57 - 6:00It reduces Earth's heat radiation to space,
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6:00 - 6:03so there's a temporary energy imbalance.
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6:03 - 6:05More energy is coming in
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6:05 - 6:07than going out,
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6:07 - 6:09until Earth warms up enough
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6:09 - 6:11to again radiate to space
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6:11 - 6:13as much energy as it absorbs from the Sun.
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6:13 - 6:15So the key quantity
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6:15 - 6:18is Earth's energy imbalance.
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6:18 - 6:20Is there more energy coming in
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6:20 - 6:22than going out?
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6:22 - 6:25If so, more warming is in the pipeline.
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6:25 - 6:29It will occur without adding any more greenhouse gasses.
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6:29 - 6:31Now finally,
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6:31 - 6:35we can measure Earth's energy imbalance precisely
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6:35 - 6:37by measuring the heat content
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6:37 - 6:40in Earth's heat reservoirs.
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6:40 - 6:43The biggest reservoir, the ocean, was the least well measured,
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6:43 - 6:46until more than 3,000 Argo floats
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6:46 - 6:49were distributed around the world's ocean.
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6:49 - 6:51These floats reveal
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6:51 - 6:53that the upper half of the ocean
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6:53 - 6:56is gaining heat at a substantial rate.
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6:56 - 6:59The deep ocean is also gaining heat at a smaller rate,
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6:59 - 7:01and energy is going
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7:01 - 7:04into the net melting of ice all around the planet.
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7:04 - 7:07And the land, to depths of tens of meters,
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7:07 - 7:09is also warming.
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7:09 - 7:12The total energy imbalance now
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7:12 - 7:16is about six-tenths of a watt per square meter.
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7:16 - 7:18That may not sound like much,
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7:18 - 7:21but when added up over the whole world, it's enormous.
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7:21 - 7:24It's about 20 times greater
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7:24 - 7:27than the rate of energy use by all of humanity.
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7:27 - 7:29It's equivalent to exploding
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7:29 - 7:35400,000 Hiroshima atomic bombs per day
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7:35 - 7:38365 days per year.
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7:38 - 7:40That's how much extra energy
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7:40 - 7:42Earth is gaining each day.
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7:42 - 7:44This imbalance,
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7:44 - 7:47if we want to stabilize climate,
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7:47 - 7:49means that we must reduce CO2
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7:49 - 7:52from 391 ppm, parts per million,
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7:52 - 7:55back to 350 ppm.
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7:55 - 7:58That is the change needed to restore energy balance
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7:58 - 8:00and prevent further warming.
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8:00 - 8:03Climate change deniers argue
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8:03 - 8:06that the Sun is the main cause of climate change.
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8:06 - 8:09But the measured energy imbalance occurred
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8:09 - 8:13during the deepest solar minimum in the record,
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8:13 - 8:17when the Sun's energy reaching Earth was least.
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8:17 - 8:20Yet, there was more energy coming in than going out.
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8:20 - 8:23This shows that the effect of the Sun's variations on climate
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8:23 - 8:26is overwhelmed by the increasing greenhouse gasses,
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8:26 - 8:29mainly from burning fossil fuels.
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8:29 - 8:32Now consider Earth's climate history.
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8:32 - 8:34These curves for global temperature,
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8:34 - 8:37atmospheric CO2 and sea level
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8:37 - 8:40were derived from ocean cores and Antarctic ice cores,
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8:40 - 8:42from ocean sediments and snowflakes
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8:42 - 8:45that piled up year after year
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8:45 - 8:47over 800,000 years
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8:47 - 8:49forming a two-mile thick ice sheet.
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8:49 - 8:52As you see, there's a high correlation
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8:52 - 8:55between temperature, CO2 and sea level.
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8:55 - 8:57Careful examination shows
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8:57 - 8:59that the temperature changes
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8:59 - 9:01slightly lead the CO2 changes
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9:01 - 9:04by a few centuries.
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9:04 - 9:07Climate change deniers like to use this fact
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9:07 - 9:10to confuse and trick the public
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9:10 - 9:13by saying, "Look, the temperature causes CO2 to change,
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9:13 - 9:15not vice versa."
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9:15 - 9:17But that lag
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9:17 - 9:20is exactly what is expected.
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9:20 - 9:23Small changes in Earth's orbit
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9:23 - 9:26that occur over tens to hundreds of thousands of years
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9:26 - 9:28alter the distribution
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9:28 - 9:30of sunlight on Earth.
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9:30 - 9:32When there is more sunlight
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9:32 - 9:35at high latitudes in summer, ice sheets melt.
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9:35 - 9:37Shrinking ice sheets
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9:37 - 9:39make the planet darker,
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9:39 - 9:41so it absorbs more sunlight
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9:41 - 9:43and becomes warmer.
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9:43 - 9:45A warmer ocean releases CO2,
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9:45 - 9:48just as a warm Coca-Cola does.
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9:48 - 9:51And more CO2 causes more warming.
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9:51 - 9:54So CO2, methane, and ice sheets
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9:54 - 9:56were feedbacks
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9:56 - 9:59that amplified global temperature change
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9:59 - 10:02causing these ancient climate oscillations to be huge,
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10:02 - 10:05even though the climate change was initiated
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10:05 - 10:07by a very weak forcing.
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10:07 - 10:09The important point
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10:09 - 10:11is that these same amplifying feedbacks
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10:11 - 10:13will occur today.
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10:13 - 10:15The physics does not change.
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10:15 - 10:17As Earth warms,
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10:17 - 10:20now because of extra CO2 we put in the atmosphere,
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10:20 - 10:22ice will melt,
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10:22 - 10:24and CO2 and methane will be released
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10:24 - 10:27by warming ocean and melting permafrost.
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10:27 - 10:30While we can't say exactly how fast
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10:30 - 10:33these amplifying feedbacks will occur,
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10:33 - 10:36it is certain they will occur,
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10:36 - 10:38unless we stop the warming.
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10:38 - 10:40There is evidence
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10:40 - 10:43that feedbacks are already beginning.
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10:43 - 10:45Precise measurements
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10:45 - 10:47by GRACE, the gravity satellite,
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10:47 - 10:50reveal that both Greenland and Antarctica
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10:50 - 10:52are now losing mass,
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10:52 - 10:55several hundred cubic kilometers per year.
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10:55 - 10:57And the rate has accelerated
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10:57 - 10:59since the measurements began
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10:59 - 11:01nine years ago.
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11:01 - 11:03Methane is also beginning
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11:03 - 11:06to escape from the permafrost.
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11:06 - 11:08What sea level rise
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11:08 - 11:10can we look forward to?
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11:10 - 11:13The last time CO2 was 390 ppm,
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11:13 - 11:15today's value,
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11:15 - 11:17sea level was higher
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11:17 - 11:20by at least 15 meters, 50 feet.
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11:20 - 11:22Where you are sitting now
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11:22 - 11:24would be under water.
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11:24 - 11:27Most estimates are that, this century,
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11:27 - 11:29we will get at least one meter.
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11:29 - 11:31I think it will be more
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11:31 - 11:33if we keep burning fossil fuels,
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11:33 - 11:36perhaps even five meters, which is 18 feet,
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11:36 - 11:39this century or shortly thereafter.
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11:39 - 11:41The important point
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11:41 - 11:44is that we will have started a process
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11:44 - 11:47that is out of humanity's control.
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11:47 - 11:50Ice sheets would continue to disintegrate for centuries.
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11:50 - 11:52There would be no stable shoreline.
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11:52 - 11:55The economic consequences are almost unthinkable.
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11:55 - 11:59Hundreds of New Orleans-like devastations
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11:59 - 12:01around the world.
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12:01 - 12:03What may be more reprehensible,
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12:03 - 12:05if climate denial continues,
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12:05 - 12:07is extermination of species.
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12:07 - 12:09The monarch butterfly
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12:09 - 12:14could be one of the 20 to 50 percent of all species
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12:14 - 12:17that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates
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12:17 - 12:19will be ticketed for extinction
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12:19 - 12:21by the end of the century
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12:21 - 12:25if we stay on business-as-usual fossil fuel use.
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12:25 - 12:28Global warming is already affecting people.
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12:28 - 12:30The Texas, Oklahoma, Mexico
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12:30 - 12:33heatwave and drought last year,
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12:33 - 12:35Moscow the year before
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12:35 - 12:37and Europe in 2003,
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12:37 - 12:40were all exceptional events,
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12:40 - 12:44more than three standard deviations outside the norm.
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12:44 - 12:46Fifty years ago,
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12:46 - 12:48such anomalies
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12:48 - 12:50covered only two- to three-tenths
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12:50 - 12:52of one percent of the land area.
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12:52 - 12:54In recent years,
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12:54 - 12:56because of global warming,
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12:56 - 12:58they now cover about 10 percent --
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12:58 - 13:01an increase by a factor of 25 to 50.
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13:01 - 13:04So we can say with a high degree of confidence
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13:04 - 13:06that the severe Texas and Moscow heatwaves
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13:06 - 13:08were not natural;
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13:08 - 13:11they were caused by global warming.
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13:11 - 13:13An important impact,
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13:13 - 13:15if global warming continues,
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13:15 - 13:18will be on the breadbasket of our nation and the world,
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13:18 - 13:20the Midwest and Great Plains,
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13:20 - 13:23which are expected to become prone to extreme droughts,
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13:23 - 13:25worse than the Dust Bowl,
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13:25 - 13:27within just a few decades,
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13:27 - 13:31if we let global warming continue.
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13:31 - 13:34How did I get dragged deeper and deeper
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13:34 - 13:36into an attempt to communicate,
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13:36 - 13:39giving talks in 10 countries, getting arrested,
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13:39 - 13:41burning up the vacation time
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13:41 - 13:44that I had accumulated over 30 years?
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13:45 - 13:48More grandchildren helped me along.
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13:48 - 13:50Jake is a super-positive,
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13:50 - 13:53enthusiastic boy.
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13:53 - 13:55Here at age two and a half years,
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13:55 - 13:57he thinks he can protect
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13:57 - 14:00his two and a half-day-old little sister.
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14:00 - 14:02It would be immoral
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14:02 - 14:04to leave these young people
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14:04 - 14:06with a climate system
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14:06 - 14:08spiraling out of control.
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14:08 - 14:11Now the tragedy about climate change
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14:11 - 14:13is that we can solve it
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14:13 - 14:15with a simple, honest approach
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14:15 - 14:18of a gradually rising carbon fee
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14:18 - 14:20collected from fossil fuel companies
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14:20 - 14:24and distributed 100 percent electronically
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14:24 - 14:26every month to all legal residents
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14:26 - 14:28on a per capita basis,
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14:28 - 14:32with the government not keeping one dime.
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14:32 - 14:35Most people would get more in the monthly dividend
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14:35 - 14:37than they'd pay in increased prices.
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14:37 - 14:39This fee and dividend
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14:39 - 14:41would stimulate the economy
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14:41 - 14:43and innovations,
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14:43 - 14:45creating millions of jobs.
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14:45 - 14:47It is the principal requirement
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14:47 - 14:50for moving us rapidly
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14:50 - 14:52to a clean energy future.
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14:52 - 14:54Several top economists
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14:54 - 14:57are coauthors on this proposition.
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14:57 - 15:00Jim DiPeso of Republicans for Environmental Protection
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15:00 - 15:02describes it thusly:
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15:02 - 15:04"Transparent. Market-based.
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15:04 - 15:06Does not enlarge government.
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15:06 - 15:09Leaves energy decisions to individual choices.
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15:09 - 15:13Sounds like a conservative climate plan."
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15:13 - 15:17But instead of placing a rising fee on carbon emissions
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15:17 - 15:20to make fossil fuels pay
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15:20 - 15:22their true cost to society,
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15:22 - 15:25our governments are forcing the public
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15:25 - 15:28to subsidize fossil fuels
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15:28 - 15:31by 400 to 500 billion dollars
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15:31 - 15:33per year worldwide,
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15:33 - 15:36thus encouraging extraction of every fossil fuel --
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15:36 - 15:38mountaintop removal,
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15:38 - 15:40longwall mining, fracking,
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15:40 - 15:42tar sands, tar shale,
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15:42 - 15:45deep ocean Arctic drilling.
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15:45 - 15:47This path, if continued,
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15:47 - 15:50guarantees that we will pass tipping points
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15:50 - 15:52leading to ice sheet disintegration
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15:52 - 15:56that will accelerate out of control of future generations.
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15:56 - 15:58A large fraction of species
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15:58 - 16:00will be committed to extinction.
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16:00 - 16:02And increasing intensity of droughts and floods
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16:02 - 16:05will severely impact breadbaskets of the world,
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16:05 - 16:07causing massive famines
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16:07 - 16:10and economic decline.
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16:11 - 16:14Imagine a giant asteroid
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16:14 - 16:18on a direct collision course with Earth.
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16:18 - 16:20That is the equivalent
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16:20 - 16:22of what we face now.
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16:22 - 16:24Yet, we dither,
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16:24 - 16:26taking no action
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16:26 - 16:28to divert the asteroid,
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16:28 - 16:30even though the longer we wait,
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16:30 - 16:34the more difficult and expensive it becomes.
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16:34 - 16:36If we had started in 2005,
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16:36 - 16:39it would have required emission reductions of three percent per year
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16:39 - 16:42to restore planetary energy balance
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16:42 - 16:45and stabilize climate this century.
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16:45 - 16:47If we start next year,
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16:47 - 16:49it is six percent per year.
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16:49 - 16:52If we wait 10 years, it is 15 percent per year --
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16:52 - 16:54extremely difficult and expensive,
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16:54 - 16:57perhaps impossible.
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16:57 - 16:59But we aren't even starting.
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16:59 - 17:02So now you know what I know
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17:02 - 17:05that is moving me to sound this alarm.
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17:05 - 17:08Clearly, I haven't gotten this message across.
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17:08 - 17:11The science is clear.
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17:11 - 17:13I need your help
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17:13 - 17:15to communicate the gravity and the urgency
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17:15 - 17:17of this situation
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17:17 - 17:19and its solutions
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17:19 - 17:21more effectively.
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17:21 - 17:23We owe it to our children and grandchildren.
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17:23 - 17:25Thank you.
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17:25 - 17:30(Applause)
- Title:
- Why I must speak out about climate change
- Speaker:
- James Hansen
- Description:
-
Top climate scientist James Hansen tells the story of his involvement in the science of and debate over global climate change. In doing so he outlines the overwhelming evidence that change is happening and why that makes him deeply worried about the future.
- Video Language:
- English
- Team:
- closed TED
- Project:
- TEDTalks
- Duration:
- 17:31
Jenny Zurawell edited English subtitles for Why I must speak out about climate change | ||
Jenny Zurawell edited English subtitles for Why I must speak out about climate change | ||
Reinis Prēdelis added a translation | ||
TED added a translation |