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What do I know

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that would cause me,

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a reticent, Midwestern scientist,

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to get myself arrested

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in front of the White House protesting?

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And what would you do

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if you knew what I know?

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Let's start with how I got to this point.

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I was lucky to grow up

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at a time when it was not difficult

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for the child of a tenant farmer

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to make his way to the state university.

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And I was really lucky

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to go to the University of Iowa

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where I could study under Professor James Van Allen

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who built instruments

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for the first U.S. satellites.

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Professor Van Allen told me

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about observations of Venus,

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that there was intense microwave radiation.

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Did it mean that Venus had an ionosphere?

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Or was Venus extremely hot?

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The right answer,

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confirmed by the Soviet Venera spacecraft,

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was that Venus was very hot --

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900 degrees Fahrenheit.

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And it was kept hot

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by a thick carbon dioxide atmosphere.

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I was fortunate to join NASA

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and successfully propose

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an experiment to fly to Venus.

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Our instrument took this image

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of the veil of Venus,

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which turned out to be

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a smog of sulfuric acid.

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But while our instrument was being built,

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I became involved in calculations

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of the greenhouse effect

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here on Earth,

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because we realized

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that our atmospheric composition was changing.

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Eventually, I resigned

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as principal investigator

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on our Venus experiment

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because a planet changing before our eyes

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is more interesting and important.

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Its changes will affect all of humanity.

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The greenhouse effect had been well understood

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for more than a century.

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British physicist John Tyndall,

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in the 1850's,

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made laboratory measurements

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of the infrared radiation,

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which is heat.

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And he showed that gasses such as CO2 absorb heat,

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thus acting like a blanket

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warming Earth's surface.

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I worked with other scientists

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to analyze Earth climate observations.

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In 1981,

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we published an article in Science magazine

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concluding that observed warming

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of 0.4 degrees Celsius

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in the prior century

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was consistent with the greenhouse effect

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of increasing CO2.

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That Earth would likely warm in the 1980's,

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and warming would exceed

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the noise level of random weather

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by the end of the century.

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We also said that the 21st century

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would see shifting climate zones,

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creation of drought-prone regions

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in North America and Asia,

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erosion of ice sheets, rising sea levels

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and opening of the fabled Northwest Passage.

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All of these impacts

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have since either happened

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or are now well under way.

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That paper was reported on the front page of the New York Times

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and led to me testifying to Congress

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in the 1980's,

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testimony in which I emphasized

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that global warming increases both extremes

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of the Earth's water cycle.

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Heatwaves and droughts on one hand,

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directly from the warming,

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but also, because a warmer atmosphere

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holds more water vapor

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with its latent energy,

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rainfall will become

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in more extreme events.

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There will be stronger storms and greater flooding.

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Global warming hoopla

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became time-consuming

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and distracted me from doing science --

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partly because I had complained

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that the White House altered my testimony.

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So I decided to go back

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to strictly doing science

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and leave the communication to others.

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By 15 years later,

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evidence of global warming was much stronger.

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Most of the things mentioned in our 1981 paper

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were facts.

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I had the privilege to speak twice

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to the president's climate task force.

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But energy policies continued to focus

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on finding more fossil fuels.

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By then we had two grandchildren,

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Sophie and Connor.

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I decided

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that I did not want them in the future

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to say, "Opa understood what was happening,

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but he didn't make it clear."

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So I decided to give a public talk

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criticizing the lack of an appropriate energy policy.

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I gave the talk at the University of Iowa in 2004

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and at the 2005 meeting

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of the American Geophysical Union.

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This led to calls

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from the White House to NASA headquarters

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and I was told that I could not give any talks or speak with the media

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without prior explicit approval

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by NASA headquarters.

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After I informed the New York Times

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about these restrictions,

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NASA was forced to end the censorship.

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But there were consequences.

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I had been using the first line

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of the NASA mission statement,

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"To understand and protect the home planet,"

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to justify my talks.

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Soon the first line of the mission statement

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was deleted, never to appear again.

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Over the next few years

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I was drawn more and more

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into trying to communicate the urgency

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of a change in energy policies,

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while still researching the physics of climate change.

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Let me describe the most important conclusion from the physics --

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first, from Earth's energy balance

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and, second, from Earth's climate history.

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Adding CO2 to the air

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is like throwing another blanket on the bed.

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It reduces Earth's heat radiation to space,

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so there's a temporary energy imbalance.

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More energy is coming in

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than going out,

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until Earth warms up enough

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to again radiate to space

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as much energy as it absorbs from the Sun.

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So the key quantity

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is Earth's energy imbalance.

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Is there more energy coming in

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than going out?

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If so, more warming is in the pipeline.

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It will occur without adding any more greenhouse gasses.

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Now finally,

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we can measure Earth's energy imbalance precisely

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by measuring the heat content

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in Earth's heat reservoirs.

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The biggest reservoir, the ocean, was the least well measured,

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until more than 3,000 Argo floats

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were distributed around the world's ocean.

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These floats reveal

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that the upper half of the ocean

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is gaining heat at a substantial rate.

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The deep ocean is also gaining heat at a smaller rate,

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and energy is going

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into the net melting of ice all around the planet.

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And the land, to depths of tens of meters,

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is also warming.

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The total energy imbalance now

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is about six-tenths of a watt per square meter.

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That may not sound like much,

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but when added up over the whole world, it's enormous.

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It's about 20 times greater

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than the rate of energy use by all of humanity.

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It's equivalent to exploding

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400,000 Hiroshima atomic bombs per day

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365 days per year.

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That's how much extra energy

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Earth is gaining each day.

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This imbalance,

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if we want to stabilize climate,

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means that we must reduce CO2

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from 391 ppm, parts per million,

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back to 350 ppm.

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That is the change needed to restore energy balance

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and prevent further warming.

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Climate change deniers argue

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that the Sun is the main cause of climate change.

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But the measured energy imbalance occurred

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during the deepest solar minimum in the record,

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when the Sun's energy reaching Earth was least.

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Yet, there was more energy coming in than going out.

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This shows that the effect of the Sun's variations on climate

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is overwhelmed by the increasing greenhouse gasses,

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mainly from burning fossil fuels.

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Now consider Earth's climate history.

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These curves for global temperature,

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atmospheric CO2 and sea level

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were derived from ocean cores and Antarctic ice cores,

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from ocean sediments and snowflakes

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that piled up year after year

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over 800,000 years

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forming a two-mile thick ice sheet.

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As you see, there's a high correlation

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between temperature, CO2 and sea level.

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Careful examination shows

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that the temperature changes

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slightly lead the CO2 changes

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by a few centuries.

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Climate change deniers like to use this fact

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to confuse and trick the public

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by saying, "Look, the temperature causes CO2 to change,

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not vice versa."

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But that lag

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is exactly what is expected.

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Small changes in Earth's orbit

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that occur over tens to hundreds of thousands of years

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alter the distribution

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of sunlight on Earth.

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When there is more sunlight

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at high latitudes in summer, ice sheets melt.

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Shrinking ice sheets

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make the planet darker,

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so it absorbs more sunlight

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and becomes warmer.

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A warmer ocean releases CO2,

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just as a warm Coca-Cola does.

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And more CO2 causes more warming.

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So CO2, methane, and ice sheets

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were feedbacks

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that amplified global temperature change

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causing these ancient climate oscillations to be huge,

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even though the climate change was initiated

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by a very weak forcing.

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The important point

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is that these same amplifying feedbacks

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will occur today.

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The physics does not change.

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As Earth warms,

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now because of extra CO2 we put in the atmosphere,

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ice will melt,

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and CO2 and methane will be released

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by warming ocean and melting permafrost.

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While we can't say exactly how fast

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these amplifying feedbacks will occur,

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it is certain they will occur,

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unless we stop the warming.

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There is evidence

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that feedbacks are already beginning.

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Precise measurements

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by GRACE, the gravity satellite,

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reveal that both Greenland and Antarctica

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are now losing mass,

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several hundred cubic kilometers per year.

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And the rate has accelerated

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since the measurements began

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nine years ago.

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Methane is also beginning

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to escape from the permafrost.

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What sea level rise

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can we look forward to?

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The last time CO2 was 390 ppm,

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today's value,

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sea level was higher

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by at least 15 meters, 50 feet.

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Where you are sitting now

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would be under water.

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Most estimates are that, this century,

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we will get at least one meter.

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I think it will be more

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if we keep burning fossil fuels,

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perhaps even five meters, which is 18 feet,

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this century or shortly thereafter.

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The important point

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is that we will have started a process

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that is out of humanity's control.

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Ice sheets would continue to disintegrate for centuries.

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There would be no stable shoreline.

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The economic consequences are almost unthinkable.

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Hundreds of New Orleans-like devastations

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around the world.

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What may be more reprehensible,

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if climate denial continues,

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is extermination of species.

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The monarch butterfly

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00:12:09,000 --> 00:12:14,000
could be one of the 20 to 50 percent of all species

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that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates

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will be ticketed for extinction

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00:12:19,000 --> 00:12:21,000
by the end of the century

295
00:12:21,000 --> 00:12:25,000
if we stay on business-as-usual fossil fuel use.

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Global warming is already affecting people.

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The Texas, Oklahoma, Mexico

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heatwave and drought last year,

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Moscow the year before

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00:12:35,000 --> 00:12:37,000
and Europe in 2003,

301
00:12:37,000 --> 00:12:40,000
were all exceptional events,

302
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more than three standard deviations outside the norm.

303
00:12:44,000 --> 00:12:46,000
Fifty years ago,

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00:12:46,000 --> 00:12:48,000
such anomalies

305
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covered only two- to three-tenths

306
00:12:50,000 --> 00:12:52,000
of one percent of the land area.

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In recent years,

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because of global warming,

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they now cover about 10 percent --

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an increase by a factor of 25 to 50.

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So we can say with a high degree of confidence

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that the severe Texas and Moscow heatwaves

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were not natural;

314
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they were caused by global warming.

315
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An important impact,

316
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if global warming continues,

317
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will be on the breadbasket of our nation and the world,

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the Midwest and Great Plains,

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00:13:20,000 --> 00:13:23,000
which are expected to become prone to extreme droughts,

320
00:13:23,000 --> 00:13:25,000
worse than the Dust Bowl,

321
00:13:25,000 --> 00:13:27,000
within just a few decades,

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00:13:27,000 --> 00:13:31,000
if we let global warming continue.

323
00:13:31,000 --> 00:13:34,000
How did I get dragged deeper and deeper

324
00:13:34,000 --> 00:13:36,000
into an attempt to communicate,

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00:13:36,000 --> 00:13:39,000
giving talks in 10 countries, getting arrested,

326
00:13:39,000 --> 00:13:41,000
burning up the vacation time

327
00:13:41,000 --> 00:13:44,000
that I had accumulated over 30 years?

328
00:13:45,000 --> 00:13:48,000
More grandchildren helped me along.

329
00:13:48,000 --> 00:13:50,000
Jake is a super-positive,

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00:13:50,000 --> 00:13:53,000
enthusiastic boy.

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00:13:53,000 --> 00:13:55,000
Here at age two and a half years,

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he thinks he can protect

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00:13:57,000 --> 00:14:00,000
his two and a half-day-old little sister.

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00:14:00,000 --> 00:14:02,000
It would be immoral

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00:14:02,000 --> 00:14:04,000
to leave these young people

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00:14:04,000 --> 00:14:06,000
with a climate system

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00:14:06,000 --> 00:14:08,000
spiraling out of control.

338
00:14:08,000 --> 00:14:11,000
Now the tragedy about climate change

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00:14:11,000 --> 00:14:13,000
is that we can solve it

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00:14:13,000 --> 00:14:15,000
with a simple, honest approach

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00:14:15,000 --> 00:14:18,000
of a gradually rising carbon fee

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00:14:18,000 --> 00:14:20,000
collected from fossil fuel companies

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00:14:20,000 --> 00:14:24,000
and distributed 100 percent electronically

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00:14:24,000 --> 00:14:26,000
every month to all legal residents

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00:14:26,000 --> 00:14:28,000
on a per capita basis,

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00:14:28,000 --> 00:14:32,000
with the government not keeping one dime.

347
00:14:32,000 --> 00:14:35,000
Most people would get more in the monthly dividend

348
00:14:35,000 --> 00:14:37,000
than they'd pay in increased prices.

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00:14:37,000 --> 00:14:39,000
This fee and dividend

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00:14:39,000 --> 00:14:41,000
would stimulate the economy

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00:14:41,000 --> 00:14:43,000
and innovations,

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00:14:43,000 --> 00:14:45,000
creating millions of jobs.

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00:14:45,000 --> 00:14:47,000
It is the principal requirement

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00:14:47,000 --> 00:14:50,000
for moving us rapidly

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00:14:50,000 --> 00:14:52,000
to a clean energy future.

356
00:14:52,000 --> 00:14:54,000
Several top economists

357
00:14:54,000 --> 00:14:57,000
are coauthors on this proposition.

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00:14:57,000 --> 00:15:00,000
Jim DiPeso of Republicans for Environmental Protection

359
00:15:00,000 --> 00:15:02,000
describes it thusly:

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00:15:02,000 --> 00:15:04,000
"Transparent. Market-based.

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00:15:04,000 --> 00:15:06,000
Does not enlarge government.

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00:15:06,000 --> 00:15:09,000
Leaves energy decisions to individual choices.

363
00:15:09,000 --> 00:15:13,000
Sounds like a conservative climate plan."

364
00:15:13,000 --> 00:15:17,000
But instead of placing a rising fee on carbon emissions

365
00:15:17,000 --> 00:15:20,000
to make fossil fuels pay

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00:15:20,000 --> 00:15:22,000
their true cost to society,

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00:15:22,000 --> 00:15:25,000
our governments are forcing the public

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00:15:25,000 --> 00:15:28,000
to subsidize fossil fuels

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00:15:28,000 --> 00:15:31,000
by 400 to 500 billion dollars

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00:15:31,000 --> 00:15:33,000
per year worldwide,

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00:15:33,000 --> 00:15:36,000
thus encouraging extraction of every fossil fuel --

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00:15:36,000 --> 00:15:38,000
mountaintop removal,

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00:15:38,000 --> 00:15:40,000
longwall mining, fracking,

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00:15:40,000 --> 00:15:42,000
tar sands, tar shale,

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00:15:42,000 --> 00:15:45,000
deep ocean Arctic drilling.

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00:15:45,000 --> 00:15:47,000
This path, if continued,

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00:15:47,000 --> 00:15:50,000
guarantees that we will pass tipping points

378
00:15:50,000 --> 00:15:52,000
leading to ice sheet disintegration

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00:15:52,000 --> 00:15:56,000
that will accelerate out of control of future generations.

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00:15:56,000 --> 00:15:58,000
A large fraction of species

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00:15:58,000 --> 00:16:00,000
will be committed to extinction.

382
00:16:00,000 --> 00:16:02,000
And increasing intensity of droughts and floods

383
00:16:02,000 --> 00:16:05,000
will severely impact breadbaskets of the world,

384
00:16:05,000 --> 00:16:07,000
causing massive famines

385
00:16:07,000 --> 00:16:10,000
and economic decline.

386
00:16:11,000 --> 00:16:14,000
Imagine a giant asteroid

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00:16:14,000 --> 00:16:18,000
on a direct collision course with Earth.

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00:16:18,000 --> 00:16:20,000
That is the equivalent

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00:16:20,000 --> 00:16:22,000
of what we face now.

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00:16:22,000 --> 00:16:24,000
Yet, we dither,

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00:16:24,000 --> 00:16:26,000
taking no action

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00:16:26,000 --> 00:16:28,000
to divert the asteroid,

393
00:16:28,000 --> 00:16:30,000
even though the longer we wait,

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00:16:30,000 --> 00:16:34,000
the more difficult and expensive it becomes.

395
00:16:34,000 --> 00:16:36,000
If we had started in 2005,

396
00:16:36,000 --> 00:16:39,000
it would have required emission reductions of three percent per year

397
00:16:39,000 --> 00:16:42,000
to restore planetary energy balance

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00:16:42,000 --> 00:16:45,000
and stabilize climate this century.

399
00:16:45,000 --> 00:16:47,000
If we start next year,

400
00:16:47,000 --> 00:16:49,000
it is six percent per year.

401
00:16:49,000 --> 00:16:52,000
If we wait 10 years, it is 15 percent per year --

402
00:16:52,000 --> 00:16:54,000
extremely difficult and expensive,

403
00:16:54,000 --> 00:16:57,000
perhaps impossible.

404
00:16:57,000 --> 00:16:59,000
But we aren't even starting.

405
00:16:59,000 --> 00:17:02,000
So now you know what I know

406
00:17:02,000 --> 00:17:05,000
that is moving me to sound this alarm.

407
00:17:05,000 --> 00:17:08,000
Clearly, I haven't gotten this message across.

408
00:17:08,000 --> 00:17:11,000
The science is clear.

409
00:17:11,000 --> 00:17:13,000
I need your help

410
00:17:13,000 --> 00:17:15,000
to communicate the gravity and the urgency

411
00:17:15,000 --> 00:17:17,000
of this situation

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00:17:17,000 --> 00:17:19,000
and its solutions

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00:17:19,000 --> 00:17:21,000
more effectively.

414
00:17:21,000 --> 00:17:23,000
We owe it to our children and grandchildren.

415
00:17:23,000 --> 00:17:25,000
Thank you.

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00:17:25,000 --> 00:17:30,000
(Applause)