Why we will rely on robots
-
0:01 - 0:02Well, Arthur C. Clarke,
-
0:02 - 0:05a famous science fiction
writer from the 1950s, -
0:06 - 0:10said that, "We overestimate
technology in the short term, -
0:10 - 0:12and we underestimate it in the long term."
-
0:12 - 0:15And I think that's some of the fear
that we see -
0:15 - 0:19about jobs disappearing from artificial
intelligence and robots. -
0:19 - 0:22That we're overestimating
the technology in the short term. -
0:22 - 0:27But I am worried whether we're going to get
the technology we need in the long term. -
0:27 - 0:33Because the demographics are really going
to leave us with lots of jobs that need doing -
0:33 - 0:38and that we, our society, is going to have to be built
on the shoulders of steel of robots in the future. -
0:38 - 0:41So I'm scared we won't have enough robots.
-
0:41 - 0:46But fear of losing jobs to technology
has been around for a long time. -
0:46 - 0:50Back in 1957, there was a Spencer
Tracy, Katharine Hepburn movie. -
0:50 - 0:51So you know how it ended up,
-
0:51 - 0:55Spencer Tracy brought a computer,
a mainframe computer of 1957, in -
0:55 - 0:57to help the librarians.
-
0:57 - 1:01The librarians in the company would do
things like answer for the executives, -
1:01 - 1:05"What are the names of Santa's reindeer?"
-
1:05 - 1:06And they would look that up.
-
1:06 - 1:08And this mainframe computer was going
to help them with that job. -
1:08 - 1:12Well of course a mainframe computer
in 1957 wasn't much use for that job. -
1:12 - 1:15The librarians were afraid
their jobs were going to disappear. -
1:15 - 1:17But that's not what happened in fact.
-
1:17 - 1:22The number of jobs for librarians
increased for a long time after 1957. -
1:22 - 1:25It wasn't until the Internet
came into play, -
1:25 - 1:28the web came into play and search
engines came into play -
1:28 - 1:31that the need for librarians went down.
-
1:31 - 1:35And I think everyone from 1957
totally underestimated -
1:35 - 1:40the level of technology we would all carry
around in our hands and in our pockets today. -
1:40 - 1:45And we can just ask: "What are the names
of Santa's reindeer?" and be told instantly -- -
1:45 - 1:47or anything else we want to ask.
-
1:47 - 1:53By the way, the wages
for librarians went up faster -
1:53 - 1:56than the wages for other jobs in the U.S.
over that same time period, -
1:56 - 1:59because librarians became
partners of computers. -
1:59 - 2:02Computers became tools, and they got
more tools that they could use -
2:02 - 2:04and become more effective
during that time. -
2:04 - 2:06Same thing happened in offices.
-
2:06 - 2:09Back in the old days,
people used spreadsheets. -
2:09 - 2:11Spreadsheets were spread sheets of paper,
-
2:11 - 2:13and they calculated by hand.
-
2:13 - 2:15But here was an interesting
thing that came along. -
2:15 - 2:18With the revolution around 1980 of P.C.'s,
-
2:18 - 2:22the spreadsheet programs were
tuned for office workers, -
2:22 - 2:24not to replace office workers,
-
2:24 - 2:29but it respected office workers
as being capable of being programmers. -
2:29 - 2:32So office workers became
programmers of spreadsheets. -
2:32 - 2:34It increased their capabilities.
-
2:34 - 2:37They no longer had to do
the mundane computations, -
2:37 - 2:39but they could do something much more.
-
2:39 - 2:43Now today, we're starting
to see robots in our lives. -
2:43 - 2:45On the left there
is the PackBot from iRobot. -
2:45 - 2:48When soldiers came across roadside
bombs in Iraq and Afghanistan, -
2:48 - 2:53instead of putting on a bomb suit
and going out and poking with a stick, -
2:53 - 2:55as they used to do up until about 2002,
-
2:55 - 2:56they now send the robot out.
-
2:56 - 2:58So the robot takes
over the dangerous jobs. -
2:58 - 3:03On the right are some TUGs from a company
called Aethon in Pittsburgh. -
3:03 - 3:05These are in hundreds
of hospitals across the U.S. -
3:05 - 3:08And they take the dirty
sheets down to the laundry. -
3:08 - 3:10They take the dirty dishes
back to the kitchen. -
3:10 - 3:12They bring the medicines
up from the pharmacy. -
3:12 - 3:15And it frees up the nurses
and the nurse's aides -
3:15 - 3:19from doing that mundane work of just
mechanically pushing stuff around -
3:19 - 3:21to spend more time with patients.
-
3:21 - 3:25In fact, robots have become sort
of ubiquitous in our lives in many ways. -
3:25 - 3:31But I think when it comes to factory
robots, people are sort of afraid, -
3:31 - 3:35because factory robots
are dangerous to be around. -
3:35 - 3:40In order to program them, you have to understand
six-dimensional vectors and quaternions. -
3:40 - 3:43And ordinary people can't
interact with them. -
3:43 - 3:46And I think it's the sort
of technology that's gone wrong. -
3:46 - 3:49It's displaced the worker
from the technology. -
3:49 - 3:52And I think we really have
to look at technologies -
3:52 - 3:54that ordinary workers can interact with.
-
3:54 - 3:58And so I want to tell you today about Baxter,
which we've been talking about. -
3:58 - 4:02And Baxter, I see, as a way
-- a first wave of robot -
4:02 - 4:06that ordinary people can interact
with in an industrial setting. -
4:06 - 4:08So Baxter is up here.
-
4:08 - 4:11This is Chris Harbert
from Rethink Robotics. -
4:11 - 4:12We've got a conveyor there.
-
4:12 - 4:15And if the lighting isn't too extreme --
-
4:15 - 4:19Ah, ah! There it is. It's picked
up the object off the conveyor. -
4:19 - 4:22It's going to come bring it
over here and put it down. -
4:22 - 4:25And then it'll go back,
reach for another object. -
4:25 - 4:29The interesting thing is Baxter
has some basic common sense. -
4:29 - 4:31By the way, what's going on with the eyes?
-
4:31 - 4:33The eyes are on the screen there.
-
4:33 - 4:36The eyes look ahead where
the robot's going to move. -
4:36 - 4:38So a person that's interacting
with the robot -
4:38 - 4:41understands where it's going to reach
and isn't surprised by its motions. -
4:41 - 4:44Here Chris took the object
out of its hand, -
4:44 - 4:46and Baxter didn't go
and try to put it down; -
4:46 - 4:48it went back and realized
it had to get another one. -
4:48 - 4:52It's got a little bit of basic common
sense, goes and picks the objects. -
4:52 - 4:53And Baxter's safe to interact with.
-
4:53 - 4:56You wouldn't want to do this
with a current industrial robot. -
4:56 - 4:58But with Baxter it doesn't hurt.
-
4:58 - 5:02It feels the force, understands
that Chris is there -
5:02 - 5:05and doesn't push through him and hurt him.
-
5:05 - 5:09But I think the most interesting thing
about Baxter is the user interface. -
5:09 - 5:12And so Chris is going to come
and grab the other arm now. -
5:12 - 5:17And when he grabs an arm, it goes
into zero-force gravity-compensated mode -
5:17 - 5:19and graphics come up on the screen.
-
5:19 - 5:24You can see some icons on the left of the screen
there for what was about its right arm. -
5:24 - 5:27He's going to put something in its hand,
he's going to bring it over here, -
5:27 - 5:32press a button and let go
of that thing in the hand. -
5:32 - 5:36And the robot figures out, ah, he must
mean I want to put stuff down. -
5:36 - 5:38It puts a little icon there.
-
5:38 - 5:44He comes over here, and he gets
the fingers to grasp together, -
5:44 - 5:48and the robot infers, ah, you
want an object for me to pick up. -
5:48 - 5:50That puts the green icon there.
-
5:50 - 5:55He's going to map out an area of where
the robot should pick up the object from. -
5:55 - 5:59It just moves it around, and the robot
figures out that was an area search. -
5:59 - 6:01He didn't have to select that from a menu.
-
6:01 - 6:05And now he's going to go off and train
the visual appearance of that object -
6:05 - 6:06while we continue talking.
-
6:07 - 6:08So as we continue here,
-
6:08 - 6:10I want to tell you about what this
is like in factories. -
6:10 - 6:12These robots we're shipping every day.
-
6:12 - 6:14They go to factories around the country.
-
6:14 - 6:15This is Mildred.
-
6:15 - 6:17Mildred's a factory worker in Connecticut.
-
6:17 - 6:19She's worked on the line
for over 20 years. -
6:19 - 6:22One hour after she saw her
first industrial robot, -
6:22 - 6:25she had programmed it to do
some tasks in the factory. -
6:25 - 6:27She decided she really liked robots.
-
6:27 - 6:32And it was doing the simple repetitive
tasks that she had had to do beforehand. -
6:32 - 6:34Now she's got the robot doing it.
-
6:34 - 6:37When we first went out to talk
to people in factories -
6:37 - 6:39about how we could get robots
to interact with them better, -
6:39 - 6:41one of the questions we asked them was,
-
6:41 - 6:44"Do you want your children
to work in a factory?" -
6:44 - 6:48The universal answer was "No, I want
a better job than that for my children." -
6:48 - 6:51And as a result of that,
Mildred is very typical -
6:51 - 6:53of today's factory workers in the U.S.
-
6:53 - 6:55They're older, and they're
getting older and older. -
6:55 - 6:58There aren't many young people
coming into factory work. -
6:58 - 7:01And as their tasks become
more onerous on them, -
7:01 - 7:04we need to give them tools
that they can collaborate with, -
7:04 - 7:06so that they can be part of the solution,
-
7:06 - 7:11so that they can continue to work
and we can continue to produce in the U.S. -
7:11 - 7:15And so our vision is that Mildred
who's the line worker -
7:15 - 7:18becomes Mildred the robot trainer.
-
7:18 - 7:19She lifts her game,
-
7:19 - 7:23like the office workers of the 1980s
lifted their game of what they could do. -
7:24 - 7:28We're not giving them tools that they have to go
and study for years and years in order to use. -
7:28 - 7:31They're tools that they can just learn
how to operate in a few minutes. -
7:32 - 7:36There's two great forces
that are both volitional but inevitable. -
7:36 - 7:38That's climate change and demographics.
-
7:38 - 7:41Demographics is really
going to change our world. -
7:41 - 7:45This is the percentage
of adults who are working age. -
7:45 - 7:47And it's gone down slightly
over the last 40 years. -
7:47 - 7:51But over the next 40 years, it's going
to change dramatically, even in China. -
7:51 - 7:56The percentage of adults who are working
age drops dramatically. -
7:56 - 8:01And turned up the other way, the people
who are retirement age goes up very, very fast, -
8:01 - 8:05as the baby boomers get to retirement age.
-
8:05 - 8:09That means there will be more people
with fewer social security dollars -
8:09 - 8:12competing for services.
-
8:12 - 8:16But more than that, as we get
older we get more frail -
8:16 - 8:18and we can't do all the tasks
we used to do. -
8:18 - 8:22If we look at the statistics
on the ages of caregivers, -
8:22 - 8:26before our eyes those caregivers
are getting older and older. -
8:26 - 8:28That's happening statistically right now.
-
8:28 - 8:34And as the number of people who are older,
above retirement age and getting older, as they increase, -
8:34 - 8:36there will be less people
to take care of them. -
8:36 - 8:39And I think we're really going
to have to have robots to help us. -
8:39 - 8:42And I don't mean robots
in terms of companions. -
8:42 - 8:45I mean robots doing the things
that we normally do for ourselves -
8:45 - 8:47but get harder as we get older.
-
8:47 - 8:50Getting the groceries in from the car,
up the stairs, into the kitchen. -
8:50 - 8:52Or even, as we get very much older,
-
8:52 - 8:55driving our cars to go visit people.
-
8:55 - 9:02And I think robotics gives people a chance
to have dignity as they get older -
9:02 - 9:05by having control of the robotic solution.
-
9:05 - 9:09So they don't have to rely on people
that are getting scarcer to help them. -
9:09 - 9:15And so I really think that we're
going to be spending more time -
9:15 - 9:18with robots like Baxter
-
9:18 - 9:24and working with robots like Baxter
in our daily lives. And that we will -- -
9:24 - 9:27Here, Baxter, it's good.
-
9:27 - 9:31And that we will all come to rely
on robots over the next 40 years -
9:31 - 9:33as part of our everyday lives.
-
9:33 - 9:35Thanks very much.
-
9:35 - 9:38(Applause)
- Title:
- Why we will rely on robots
- Speaker:
- Rodney Brooks
- Description:
-
Scaremongers play on the idea that robots will simply replace people on the job. In fact, they can become our essential collaborators, freeing us up to spend time on less mundane and mechanical challenges. Rodney Brooks points out how valuable this could be as the number of working-age adults drops and the number of retirees swells. He introduces us to Baxter, the robot with eyes that move and arms that react to touch, which could work alongside an aging population -- and learn to help them at home, too.
- Video Language:
- English
- Team:
- closed TED
- Project:
- TEDTalks
- Duration:
- 09:56
Krystian Aparta edited English subtitles for Why we will rely on robots | ||
Valérie Boor commented on English subtitles for Why we will rely on robots | ||
Morton Bast edited English subtitles for Why we will rely on robots | ||
Morton Bast edited English subtitles for Why we will rely on robots | ||
Thu-Huong Ha approved English subtitles for Why we will rely on robots | ||
Thu-Huong Ha edited English subtitles for Why we will rely on robots | ||
Thu-Huong Ha edited English subtitles for Why we will rely on robots | ||
Morton Bast accepted English subtitles for Why we will rely on robots |
Valérie Boor
Dear fellow-translators,
Would someone please be able to comment on what Mr Brooks could have meant with "volitional" when he (seems to have) said:
________________________________________________________________________________________________
@7:31 - 7:36
"There's two great forces that are both volitional but inevitable."
________________________________________________________________________________________________
I'm very curious, and can come up with four explanations, but would like to see what you all think, in order to choose a fitting translation.
________________________________________________________________________________________________
The first explanation being that we should see it as a metaphor, as if climate change and demographics seem to have a will of their own - since we cannot control them single-handedly.
________________________________________________________________________________________________
I have a hard time believing the second possibility, where he actually thinks there is an element of will-power to these forces, though that does seem to be what he says.
________________________________________________________________________________________________
The third possibility, is there another meaning to volitional, that I'm unaware of?
________________________________________________________________________________________________
Finally, it could be we heard wrong, and he could be saying something else entirely.
Anyone? I'd be very grateful!
Kind regards,
Valérie