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I study the future
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of crime and terrorism,
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and frankly, I'm afraid.
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I'm afraid by what I see.
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I sincerely want to believe
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that technology can bring us
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the techno-utopia that we've been promised,
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but, you see,
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I've spent a career in law enforcement,
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and that's informed my perspective on things.
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I've been a street police officer,
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an undercover investigator,
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a counter-terrorism strategist,
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and I've worked in more than 70 countries
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around the world.
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And I've had to see more than my fair share
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of violence and the darker underbelly of society,
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and that's informed my opinions.
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My work with criminals and terrorists
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has actually been highly educational.
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They have taught me a lot,
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and I'd like to be able to share
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some of these observations with you.
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Today I'm going to show you the flip side
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of all those technologies that we marvel at,
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the ones that we love.
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In the hands of the TED community,
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these are awesome tools which will bring about
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radical openness and great change for our world,
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but in the hands of suicide bombers,
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the future can look quite different.
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I started observing
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technology and how criminals were using it
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as a young patrol officer.
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In those days, this was the height of technology.
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Laugh though you will,
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all the drug dealers and gang members
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with whom I dealt had one of these
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long before any police officer I knew did.
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Twenty years later, criminals are still using
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mobile phones, but they're also building
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their own mobile phone networks,
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like this one, which has been deployed
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in all 31 states of Mexico by the narcos.
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They have a national encrypted
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radio communications system.
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Think about that.
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Think about the innovation that went into that.
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Think about the infrastructure to build it,
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and then thing about this:
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why can't I get a cell phone signal
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in San Francisco? (Laughter)
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How is this possible? (Laughter)
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It makes no sense. (Applause)
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We consistently underestimate
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what criminals and terrorists can do.
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Technology has made our world
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increasingly open, and for the most part,
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that's great, but all this openness
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may have unintended consequences.
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Consider the 2008 terrorist attack on Mumbai.
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The men that carried that attack out were armed
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with AK-47s, explosives, and hand grenades.
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They threw these hand grenades
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at innocent people as they sat eating in cafes
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and waited to catch trains on their way home from work.
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But heavy artillery is nothing new
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in terrorist operations.
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Guns and bombs are nothing new.
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What was different this time
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is the way that the terrorists used
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modern information communications technologies
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to locate additional victims and slaughter them.
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They were armed with mobile phones.
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They had Blackberries.
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They had access to satellite imagery.
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They had satellite phones,
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and they even had night vision goggles.
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But perhaps their greatest innovation was this.
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We've all seen pictures like this
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on television and in the news.
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This is an operation center.
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And the terrorists built their very own op center
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across the border in Pakistan,
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where they monitored the BBC,
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al Jazeera, CNN, and Indian local stations.
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They also monitored the internet
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and social media
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to monitor the progress of their attacks
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and how many people they had killed.
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They did all of this in real time.
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The innovation of the terrorist operation center
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gave terrorists unparalleled situational awareness
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and tactical advantage over the police
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and over the government.
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What did they do with this?
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They used it to great effect.
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At one point during the 60-hour siege,
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the terrorists were going room to room
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trying to find additional victims.
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They came upon a suite on the top floor
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of the hotel, and they kicked down the door
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and they found a man hiding by his bed.
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And they said to him, "Who are you,
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and what are you doing here?"
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And the man replied,
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"I'm just an innocent schoolteacher."
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Of course, the terrorists knew
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that no Indian schoolteacher stays at a suite
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in the Taj.
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They picked up his identification,
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and they phoned his name in to the terrorist war room,
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where the terrorist war room googled him,
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and found a picture and called their operatives
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on the ground and said,
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"Your hostage, is he heavyset?
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Is he bald in front? Does he wear glasses?"
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"Yes, yes, yes," came the answers.
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The op center had found him and they had a match.
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He was not a schoolteacher.
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He was the second-wealthiest businessman
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in India, and after discovering this information,
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the terrorist war room gave the order
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to the terrorists on the ground in Mumbai.
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We all worry about our privacy settings
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on Facebook,
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but the fact of the matter is,
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our openness can be used against us.
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Terrorists are doing this.
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A search engine can determine
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who shall live and who shall die.
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This is the world that we live in.
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During the Mumbai siege,
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terrorists were so dependent on technology
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that several witnesses reported that
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as the terrorists were shooting hostages with one hand,
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they were checking their mobile phone messages
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in the very other hand.
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That's how integrated it was.
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In the end, 300 people were gravely wounded
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and over on men, women, and children
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lost their lives that day.
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Think about what happened.
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During this 60-hour siege on Mumbai,
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10 men armed not just with weapons
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but with technology
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were able to bring a city of 20 million people
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to a standstill.
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Ten people brought 20 million people
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to a standstill, and this traveled around the world.
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This is what radicals can do with openness.
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This was done nearly four years ago.
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What could terrorists do today
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with the technologies available that we have?
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What will they do tomorrow?
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The ability of one to affect many
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is scaling exponentially,
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and it's scaling for good
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and it's scaling for evil.
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It's not just about terrorism, though.
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There's also been a big paradigm shift
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in crime.
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You see, you can now commit more crime as well.
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In the old days, it was a knife and a gun.
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Then criminals moved to robbing trains.
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You could rob 200 people on a train,
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a great innovation.
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Moving forward, the internet
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allowed things to scale even more.
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In fact, many of you will remember
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the recent Sony PlayStation hack.
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In that incident, over 100 million people
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were robbed.
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Think about that.
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When in the history of humanity
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has it ever been possible for one person
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to rob 100 million?
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Of course, it's not just about stealing things.
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There are other avenues of technology
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that criminals can exploit.
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Many of you will remember this super cute video
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from the last TED,
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but not all of quadcopter swarms are so nice and cute.
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They don't all have drumsticks.
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Some can be armed with HD cameras
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and do countersurveillance on protesters,
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or, as in this little bit of movie magic,
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quadcopters can be loaded with firearms
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and automatic weapons.
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Little robots are cute when they play music to you.
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When they swarm and chase you down the block
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to shoot you, a little bit less so.
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Of course, criminals and terrorists weren't the first
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to give guns to robots.
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We know where that started.
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But they're adapting quickly.
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Recently, the FBI arrested a man,
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an al Qaeda affiliate in the United States,
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who was planning on using these remote-controlled
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drone aircraft to fly C4 explosives
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into government buildings in the United States.
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By the way, these travel
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at over 600 miles an hour.
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Every time a new technology is being introduced,
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criminals are there to exploit it.
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We've all seen 3D printers.
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We know with them that you can print
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in many materials ranging from plastic
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to chocolate to metal and even concrete
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with great precision.
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I actually was able to make this
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just the other day,
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a very cute little ducky.
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But I wonder to myself,
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for those people that strap bombs
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to their chests
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and blow themselves up,
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how might they use 3D printers?
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Perhaps
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like this.
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You see, if you can print in metal,
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you can print one of these,
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and in fact,
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you can also print one of these too.
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The UK I know has some very strict firearms laws.
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You needn't bring the gun into the UK anymore.
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You just bring the 3D printer
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and print the gun while you're here,
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and, of course, the magazines for your bullets.
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But as these gets bigger in the future,
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what other items will you be able to print?
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The technologies are allowing bigger printers.
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As we move forward,
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we'll see new technologies also, like the Internet of Things.
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Every day we're connecting more and more of our lives
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to the internet, which means
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that the Internet of Things will soon be
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the Internet of Things To Be Hacked.
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All of the physical objects in our space
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are being transformed into information technologies,
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and that has a radical implication for our security,
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because more connections to more devices
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means more vulnerabilities.
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Criminals understand this.
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Terrorists understand this. Hackers understand this.
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If you control the code,
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you control the world.
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This is the future that awaits us.
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There has not yet been an operating system
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or a technology that hasn't been hacked.
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That's troubling, since the human body itself
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is now becoming an information technology.
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As we've seen here,
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we're transforming ourselves into cyborgs.
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Every year, thousands of cochlear implants,
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diabetic pumps, pacemakers
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and defibrillators are being implanted in people.
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In the United States, there are 60,000 people
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who have a pacemaker that connects to the internet.
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The defibrillators allow a physician at a distance
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to give a shock to a heart
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in case a patient needs it.
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But if you don't need it,
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and somebody else gives you the shock,
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it's not a good thing.
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Of course, we're going to go even deeper
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than the human body.
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We're going down to the cellular level these days.
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Up until this point, all the technologies
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I've been talking about have been silicon-based
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ones and zeroes,
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but there's another operating system out there:
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the original operating system, DNA.
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And to hackers, DNA is just another operating system
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waiting to be hacked.
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It's a great challenge for them.
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There are people already working
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on hacking the software of life,
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and while most of them are doing this to great good
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and to help us all,
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some won't be.
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So how will criminals abuse this?
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Well, with synthetic biology you can do
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some pretty neat things.
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For example, I predict that we will move away
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from a plant-based narcotics world
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to a synthetic one.
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Why do you need the plants anymore?
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You can just take the DNA code from marijuana
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or poppies or coca leaves
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and cut and past that gene
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and put it into yeast,
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and you can take those yeast
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and make them make the cocaine for you,
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or the marijuana,
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or any other drug.
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So how we use yeast in the future
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is going to be really interesting.
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In fact, we may have some really interesting
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bread and beer as we go into
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this next century. (Laughter)
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The cost of sequencing the human genome
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is dropping precipitously.
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It was proceeding at Moore's Law pace,
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but then in 2008, something changed.
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The technologies got better,
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and now DNA sequencing is proceeding at a pace
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five times that of Moore's Law.
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That has significant implications for us.
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It took us 30 years to get from
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the introduction of the personal computer
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to the level of cybercrime we have today,
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but looking at how biology is proceeding so rapidly,
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and knowing criminals and terrorists as I do,
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we may get there a lot faster
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with biocrime in the future.
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It will be easy for anybody to go ahead
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and print their own bio-virus,
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enhanced versions of ebola or anthrax,
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weaponized flu.
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We recently saw a case where some researchers
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made the H5N1 avian influenza virus
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more potent.
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It already has a 70% mortality rate
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if you get it, but it's hard to get.
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Engineers, by moving around a small number
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of genetic changes,
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were able to weaponize it
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and make it much more easy for human beings to catch,
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so that not thousands of people would die,
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but tens of millions.
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You see, you can go ahead and create
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new pandemics, and the researchers who did this
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were so proud of their accomplishments,
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they wanted to publish it openly
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so that everybody could see this
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and get access to this information.
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But it goes deeper than that.
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DNA researcher Andrew Hessel
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has pointed out quite rightly
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that if you can use cancer treatments,
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modern cancer treatments,
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to go after one cell while leaving all the other cells
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around it intact,
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then you can also go after any one person's cell.
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Personalized cancer treatments
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are the flip side of personalized bioweapons,
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which means you can attack any one individual,
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including all the people in this picture.
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How will we protect them in the future?
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What to do?
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What to do about all this?
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That's what I get asked all the time.
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For those of you who follow me on twitter,
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I will be tweeting out the answer
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later on today. (Laughter)
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Actually, it's a bit more complex than that,
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and there are no magic bullets.
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I don't have all the answers,
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but I know a few things.
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In the wake of 9/11,
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the best security minds
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put together all their innovation
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and this is what they created
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for security.
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This was their thought of what
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the best and brightest in security looks like.
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If you're expecting the people who built this
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to protect you
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from the coming roboypocalypse — (Laughter)
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— uh, you may want to have a backup plan. (Laughter)
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Just saying. (Applause)
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Just think about that. (Applause)
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Law enforcement is currently a closed system.
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It's nation-based, while the threat is international.
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Policing doesn't scale globally.
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At least, it hasn't,
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and our current system of guns,
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border guards, big gates and fences
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are outdated in the new world into which we're moving.
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So how might we prepare for some of these
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specific threats, like attacking a president
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or a prime minister?
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This would be the natural government response,
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to hide away all our government leaders
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in hermetically sealed bubbles.
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But this is not going to work.
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The cost of doing a DNA sequence is going to be trivial.
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Anybody will have it and we will all have them in the future.
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So maybe there's a more radical way
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that we can look at this.
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What happens if we were to take
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the President's DNA, or a king or queen's,
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and put it out to a group of a few hundred
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trusted researchers so they could
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study that DNA and do penetration testing against it
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as a means of helping our leaders?
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Or what if we sent it out to a few thousand?
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Or, controversially, and not without its risks,
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what happens if we just gave it to the whole public?
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Then we could all be engaged in helping.
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We've already seen examples of this working well.
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The Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project
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is staffed by journalists and citizens
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where they are crowd-sourcing
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what dictators and terrorists are doing
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with public funds around the world,
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and, in a more dramatic case,
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we've seen in Mexico
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a country that has been racked
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by 50,000 narcotics-related murders
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in the past six years.
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They're killing so many people
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they can't even afford to bury them all
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in anything but these unmarked graves
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like this one outside of Ciudad Juarez.
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What can we do about this?
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The government has proven ineffective.
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So in Mexico, citizens, at great risk to themselves,
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are fighting back to build an effective solution.
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They're crowd-mapping the activities
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of the drug dealers.
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Whether or not you realize it,
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we are at the dawn of a technological arms race,
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an arms race between people
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who are using technology for good
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and those who are using it for ill.
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The threat is serious, and the time to prepare for it
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is now.
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I can assure you that the terrorists and criminals are.
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My personal belief is that,
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rather than having a small elite force
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of highly trained government agents
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here to protect us all,
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we're much better off
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having average and ordinary citizens like ourselves
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approaching this problem as a group
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and seeing what we can do.
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If we all do all our part,
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I think we'll be in a much better space.
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The tools to change the world
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are in everybody's hands.
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How we use them is not just up to me,
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it's up to all of us.
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This was a technology I would frequently deploy
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as a police officer.
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This technology has become outdated
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in our current world.
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It doesn't scale, it doesn't work globally,
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and it surely doesn't work virtually.
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We've seen paradigm shifts in crime and terrorism.
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They call for a shift to a more open form
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and a more participatory form of law enforcement.
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So I invite you to join me.
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After all, public safety is too important
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to leave to the professionals.
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Thank you. (Applause)
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(Applause)