Modelling Ecosystem Services under Uncertainty with ARIES: Gary Johnson at TEDxUVM
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0:13 - 0:16We all know that we receive
benefits from nature, -
0:16 - 0:18but have you ever tried
to list them out? -
0:18 - 0:21To identify them,
assign values to them -
0:21 - 0:24or actually trace them back, to particular
landscapes that give rise to them. -
0:24 - 0:26Most of us probably don't go
through this exercise -
0:26 - 0:28on a regular basis if ever.
-
0:28 - 0:32But the answer to these questions
is fundamental to our ability -
0:32 - 0:35to manage our landscapes,
for both sustainability -
0:35 - 0:37and for improved quality of life.
-
0:37 - 0:41But to answer these questions,
I need to know, -
0:42 - 0:44what values you assign
-
0:44 - 0:46to wetlands,
-
0:46 - 0:48streams, forests, fields?
-
0:48 - 0:50And this question isn't particularly
easy to answer, -
0:50 - 0:52if you think about it.
-
0:52 - 0:55We all have familiarity with assigning
a value to a pint of maple syrup -
0:55 - 0:57or a glass of water.
-
0:57 - 1:00But, what's the value of the maple trees
that produced that syrup, -
1:00 - 1:03or the forest
where maple trees grow? -
1:03 - 1:08Is the value of the forest equal
to the value of the maple syrup? -
1:08 - 1:10Probably not.
-
1:10 - 1:12Forests produce
a lot of other services, -
1:12 - 1:14and we could sit and think
about them for a minute. -
1:14 - 1:17We can think whether it is –
board field of lumber it produces, -
1:17 - 1:22or they generate other food,
fuel-fiber type resources, firewood – -
1:22 - 1:24These all have market values,
-
1:24 - 1:27so, again, it's relatively easy
to look up at the values -
1:27 - 1:29or think about them,
or think about trading them. -
1:29 - 1:31But what about the elements,
-
1:31 - 1:33the services that we get
from this ecosystems -
1:33 - 1:36that aren't necessarily material,
-
1:36 - 1:38that aren't part or the structure,
-
1:38 - 1:41but rather functions
-
1:41 - 1:44of the greater structural complexity
of these systems? -
1:44 - 1:46That is – what is the value
of a forest as a forest -
1:46 - 1:49as opposed to the value
as a piece of lumber? -
1:49 - 1:52So, that's an important question
to think about. -
1:52 - 1:53So if we can think about things like,
-
1:53 - 1:56forests absorb carbon dioxide
from the air, -
1:56 - 1:59thereby medicating greenhouse
gas emissions and climate change – -
1:59 - 2:01they produce oxygen
that we can breathe, -
2:01 - 2:05they retain nutrients,
like phosphorus and nitrogen, -
2:05 - 2:07as well as sediment,
keeping them out from water ways -
2:07 - 2:09to keep them clear.
-
2:09 - 2:11They provide habitat for biodiversity
-
2:11 - 2:14and they provide endless recreation
opportunities for us. -
2:14 - 2:16We can think of all
these kinds of things. -
2:16 - 2:18So, maybe we can get
at a lower bound for value -
2:18 - 2:21for a given forest,
if we try to add up -
2:21 - 2:24the individual contributions
of each of these different elements -
2:24 - 2:26to our well being.
-
2:26 - 2:29So we can try and do that.
-
2:29 - 2:31But now we are still faced
with a more fundamental problem, -
2:31 - 2:34which is that – we're talking
about questions of value, -
2:34 - 2:35and we're talking about value,
-
2:35 - 2:38we're talking about
people's perceptions of worth, -
2:38 - 2:41which, been held subjectively,
vary widely across populations, -
2:41 - 2:45culture, generation, ethnicity,
any number of things, -
2:45 - 2:47we can think about these axes.
-
2:47 - 2:49So, that means extremely,
extremely difficult to assign -
2:49 - 2:53blanket values, generalized values
to a given landscape, -
2:53 - 2:55because the services
that they generate are valued -
2:55 - 2:58by different people in different places
at different times. -
2:58 - 3:03So, that's the problem space
that we want to play with here. -
3:03 - 3:06So, if we're thinking
about this localization of the problem, -
3:06 - 3:10maybe a more important question,
or a different way to phrase this, -
3:10 - 3:13is not to ask ourselves,
or is not to try and say, -
3:13 - 3:16"The value of a service
from forest is x," -
3:16 - 3:18but rather to say,
-
3:18 - 3:22"The value of this service from this forest
is x to these people," -
3:22 - 3:25and to get specific.
-
3:25 - 3:28So, in that spirit,
for the last few decades, -
3:28 - 3:30our researchers
in ecosystems services area -
3:30 - 3:32have been traveling
around the world -
3:32 - 3:35and surveying people
about the values -
3:35 - 3:38they assign to the services of nature.
-
3:38 - 3:40But, obviously these things
are time consuming -
3:40 - 3:42and they are expensive.
-
3:42 - 3:44So it's extremely difficult
to get very much data here. -
3:44 - 3:46There are databases built up
on these things, -
3:46 - 3:48specially in the last decade –
-
3:48 - 3:50we've started to see some
databases emerging that you can query -
3:50 - 3:53and try to get an idea
of what the literature says -
3:53 - 3:55about some of these
different kinds of values – -
3:55 - 3:58these, again, socio-economic values
that we're playing with. -
3:58 - 4:02But, we don't think even
remotely close to global coverage, -
4:02 - 4:05nowhere near.
And at the same time, -
4:05 - 4:09especially in the last five to six years,
we've seen a major upswell -
4:09 - 4:11in institutions of both
the public and the private sector, -
4:12 - 4:15begging for global coverage
of ecosystems service information -
4:15 - 4:19that they can use
for their land management decisions, -
4:19 - 4:21and run scenarios against.
-
4:21 - 4:26So, as we've already seen, we do have
a lot of [due] a spatial data now. -
4:26 - 4:29That's kind of a new big fun thing
in ecosystems services world – -
4:29 - 4:32we're not just limited to doing
these one off surveys, -
4:32 - 4:35because we can actually do
these secondary -
4:35 - 4:37meta-level evaluations of the data.
-
4:37 - 4:41And what we get to do with this –
we get all this geospatial data, -
4:41 - 4:43we put it together, and now
what we can do in filling these gaps, -
4:43 - 4:45is we can actually try
and create functions -
4:45 - 4:49that go in and study the structure
in the data -
4:49 - 4:53of the landscapes and the people,
the cities, the community centers, -
4:53 - 4:55the roads,
all these kinds of structures, -
4:55 - 4:58and try to pull out
with these signature functions, -
4:58 - 5:01where services are likely
to be produced, -
5:01 - 5:03and where there's probably
demand for them. -
5:03 - 5:06But, once you've applied
these kinds of functions, -
5:06 - 5:08you still don't necessarily know –
-
5:08 - 5:10if you know where
the supply might be, -
5:10 - 5:11and you know where
the demand might be -
5:11 - 5:13in any given landscape,
once you've run these functions – -
5:13 - 5:16you still don't know
if any service is being delivered. -
5:16 - 5:18So, what we have to do there –
-
5:18 - 5:21is we take the landscapes,
we project this information -
5:21 - 5:25about likelihood of supply and demand
up on to a network, -
5:25 - 5:28and then we start flowing around,
we simulate in our computers -
5:28 - 5:31across all this geospatial data.
-
5:31 - 5:34We simulate the flow of,
what we call "service carriers", -
5:34 - 5:36so things like bees
for pollination services, -
5:36 - 5:39or carbon dioxide moving around,
water moving for flooding -
5:39 - 5:44and wild-fire, water supply,
water quality, any number of things. -
5:44 - 5:46You move it across the landscape
and you try actually see – -
5:46 - 5:49given any particular
topographic variables, -
5:49 - 5:53what is the service flow topology,
any given area, -
5:53 - 5:57and thereby, you can finally answer
the question: -
5:57 - 6:00Who receives services from where
in any given landscape? -
6:00 - 6:04And that's extremely powerful,
if you have that kind of information. -
6:04 - 6:09So, the kinds of things
you can answer with that, now – -
6:10 - 6:11
– that's not too bad – -
6:11 - 6:14So, for example, you can finally
show maps like this, -
6:14 - 6:16where the green areas here are like
-
6:16 - 6:20[repeated sound of] on the top,
and over here you have a mountaineer, -
6:20 - 6:23and we're looking at scenic views –
-
6:23 - 6:25So the impact of scenic views
on different properties – -
6:25 - 6:27for the red, on the top there,
is the city of Kent. -
6:27 - 6:29And so you can try and see:
-
6:29 - 6:31Who receives services from where,
and to what degree? -
6:31 - 6:33And the yellow stuff is visual blight –
-
6:33 - 6:37You can actually look at the degree
to which individual properties -
6:37 - 6:40are being impacted in terms
of their service, -
6:40 - 6:42because of the way
landscapes configure. -
6:42 - 6:43And you can run scenarios against this
-
6:43 - 6:45to try and actually, really answer
questions about -
6:45 - 6:48who wins and who looses
on different management scenarios? -
6:48 - 6:51So you say,
on a development scenario one, -
6:51 - 6:53this group of people gained something,
-
6:53 - 6:56a different group of people gains
a little bit more, -
6:56 - 6:57and this third group of people
gets hurt. -
6:57 - 7:00Whereas under development scenario two,
if I develop in this area, -
7:01 - 7:03well, it turns out that everybody
gets hurt a little bit, -
7:03 - 7:06but if I develop in the third area,
everyone benefits. -
7:09 - 7:13This is really becoming
very interesting -
7:13 - 7:17in the US, in particular,
the EPA has this entire research divisions -
7:17 - 7:19entirely turned around
to ecosystem service research these days; -
7:19 - 7:21the US GS has a very
big program in that; -
7:21 - 7:24the US GA has an office
of ecosystem services and market – -
7:24 - 7:26just started off a few years ago
under this administration, -
7:26 - 7:28and so on and so forth.
-
7:28 - 7:30So, our government's all into it.
-
7:30 - 7:32We're seeing a lot of
ecosystem service work, -
7:32 - 7:36starting to find its way
into public policy in the EU. -
7:36 - 7:38And I'm participating in some projects
in Africa as well, -
7:38 - 7:40for the Gund Institute right now,
-
7:40 - 7:42where this stuff is also
coming into play. -
7:42 - 7:45So, we're hoping that taking this kind
of technology -
7:45 - 7:48to finally connect people
to the landscapes, -
7:48 - 7:51the actual landscapes,
which generate their services, -
7:51 - 7:53will really help us to better inform,
-
7:53 - 7:56better land management
in the future for all of us. -
7:56 - 7:58Thank you.
-
7:58 - 7:59(Applause)
- Title:
- Modelling Ecosystem Services under Uncertainty with ARIES: Gary Johnson at TEDxUVM
- Description:
-
Gary Johnson models the spatial flow of services from ecosystems to people and changes to these services by different management scenarios. His research interests include ecosystem service modelling and simulation, network flow optimization and substitutability, hierarchical modelling, stochastic processes and uncertainty propagation, decision and game theory, functional programming, and machine learning.
- Video Language:
- English
- Team:
- closed TED
- Project:
- TEDxTalks
- Duration:
- 08:00
Retired user
Hi,
There is a mistake in the English subtitle between 6:13 and 6:16. The subtitle says,
"[repeated sound of] on the top,
and over here you have a mountaineer"
The speaker is actually saying,
"Puget Sound up on the top
and over here, you have, uh, Mount Rainier"
I used to live the American Northwest near Washington State, so I am 99% sure that is what he talking about based on the context. It would be great if you could correct this. Thank you.