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When you come to TEDx,
you always think about technology,
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the world changing,
becoming more innovative.
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You think about the driverless.
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Everybody's talking about
driverless cars these days,
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and I love the concept
of a driverless car,
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but when I go in one, you know,
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I want it really slow,
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I want access to the steering wheel
and the brake, just in case.
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I don't know about you,
but I am not ready for a driverless bus.
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I am not ready for a driverless airplane.
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How about a driverless world?
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And I ask you that
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because we are increasingly in one.
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It's not supposed to be that way.
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We're number one,
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the United States is large and in charge.
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Americanization and globalization
for the last several generations
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have basically been the same thing.
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Right? Whether it's
the World Trade Organization
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or it's the IMF, the World Bank,
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the Bretton Woods, the ?? currency,
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these were American institutions,
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our values, our friends, our allies,
our money, our standards.
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That was the way the world worked.
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So it's sort of interesting,
if you want to look at how the U.S. looks,
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here it is.
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This is our view of how the world is run.
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President Obama has got the red carpet,
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he goes down Air Force One,
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and it feels pretty good,
it feels pretty comfortable.
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Well, I don't know how many of you
saw the China trip last week
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and the G20.
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Oh my God. Right?
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This is how we landed
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for the most important meeting
of the world's leaders in China.
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The National Security Advisor
was actually spewing expletives
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on the tarmac,
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no red carpet,
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kind of left out the bottom of the plane
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along with all the media
and everybody else.
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Later on in the G20,
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well there's Obama.
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Hi, George. Hi, Norman.
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They look like they're about
to get into a cage match, right?
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And they did. It was 90 minutes long,
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and they talked about Syria.
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That's what Putin wanted to talk about.
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He's increasingly calling the shots.
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He's the one willing to do stuff there.
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There's not a lot of mutual like or trust,
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but it's not as if the Americans
are telling him what to do.
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Well, how about when the whole 20
are getting together?
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Then, surely, when the leaders
are all onstage,
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then the Americans
are pulling their weight.
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Uh oh.
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Xi Jinping seems fine.
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Angela Merkel has, she always does,
that look, she always does that.
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But Putin is telling
Turkish President Erdogan
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what to do, and Obama is like,
what's going on over there?
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You see. And the problem is
it's not a G20,
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the problem is it's a G-Zero world,
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a world order where there is
no single country or alliance
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that can meet the challenges
of global leadership.
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The G20 doesn't work,
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the G7, all of our friends,
that's history.
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So globalization is continuing.
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Goods and services and people
and capital are moving across borders
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faster and faster than ever before,
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but Americanization is not.
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So if I've convinced you of that,
I want to do two things
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with the rest of this talk.
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I want to talk about
the implications of that
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for the whole world.
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I'll go around it.
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And then I want to talk about
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what we think, right here
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in the United States and in New York.
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So why? What are the implications.
Why are we here?
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Well, we're here
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because the United States,
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we spent two trillion dollars
on wars in Iraq and Afghanistan
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that were failed. We don't want
to do that anymore.
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We have large numbers of middle
and working classes
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that feel like they've not benefited
from promises of globalization,
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so they don't want to see it particularly.
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And we have an energy revolution
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where we don't need OPEC
or the Middle East the way we used to.
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We produce all that right here
in the United States.
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So the Americans don't want
to be the global sheriff for security
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or the architect of global trade.
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The Americans don't want to even be
the cheerleader of global values.
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Well then you look to Europe,
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and the most important alliance
in the world has been
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the transatlantic relationship.
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But it is now weaker than it has been
at any point since World War II,
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all of the crises,
the Brexit conversations,
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the hedging going on
between the French and the Russians
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or the Germans and the Turks
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or the Brits and the Chinese.
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China does want to do more leadership.
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They do, but only in the economic sphere,
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and they want their own values,
standards, currency,
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in competition with that of the U.S.
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The Russians want to do more leadership.
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You see that in Ukraine,
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in the Baltic states, in the Middle East,
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but not with the Americans.
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They want their own preferences in order.
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That's why we are where we are.
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So what happens going forward?