How the US should use its superpower status
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0:01 - 0:03When you come to TEDx,
you always think about technology, -
0:03 - 0:06the world changing,
becoming more innovative. -
0:06 - 0:07You think about the driverless.
-
0:07 - 0:11Everyone's talking
about driverless cars these days, -
0:11 - 0:14and I love the concept
of a driverless car, -
0:14 - 0:18but when I go in one, you know,
-
0:18 - 0:19I want it really slow,
-
0:20 - 0:25I want access to the steering wheel
and the brake, just in case. -
0:26 - 0:29I don't know about you,
but I am not ready for a driverless bus. -
0:31 - 0:33I am not ready for a driverless airplane.
-
0:35 - 0:37How about a driverless world?
-
0:38 - 0:39And I ask you that
-
0:40 - 0:43because we are increasingly in one.
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0:45 - 0:47It's not supposed to be that way.
-
0:47 - 0:49We're number one,
-
0:49 - 0:52the United States is large and in charge.
-
0:53 - 0:57Americanization and globalization
for the last several generations -
0:57 - 1:00have basically been the same thing.
-
1:00 - 1:04Right? Whether it's
the World Trade Organization -
1:04 - 1:06or it's the IMF, the World Bank,
-
1:06 - 1:08the Bretton Woods Accord on currency,
-
1:08 - 1:10these were American institutions,
-
1:10 - 1:14our values, our friends, our allies,
our money, our standards. -
1:15 - 1:18That was the way the world worked.
-
1:18 - 1:23So it's sort of interesting,
if you want to look at how the US looks, -
1:23 - 1:24here it is.
-
1:24 - 1:28This is our view of how the world is run.
-
1:28 - 1:31President Obama has got the red carpet,
-
1:31 - 1:32he goes down Air Force One,
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1:32 - 1:35and it feels pretty good,
it feels pretty comfortable. -
1:35 - 1:39Well, I don't know how many of you
saw the China trip last week -
1:39 - 1:41and the G20.
-
1:41 - 1:43Oh my God. Right?
-
1:43 - 1:45This is how we landed
-
1:45 - 1:48for the most important meeting
of the world's leaders in China. -
1:48 - 1:52The National Security Advisor
was actually spewing expletives -
1:52 - 1:54on the tarmac --
-
1:54 - 1:55no red carpet,
-
1:55 - 1:58kind of left out the bottom of the plane
-
1:58 - 2:01along with all the media
and everybody else. -
2:02 - 2:04Later on in the G20,
-
2:04 - 2:05well, there's Obama.
-
2:06 - 2:08(Laughter)
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2:08 - 2:09Hi, George.
-
2:09 - 2:11Hi, Norman.
-
2:12 - 2:16They look like they're
about to get into a cage match, right? -
2:16 - 2:19And they did. It was 90 minutes long,
and they talked about Syria. -
2:19 - 2:21That's what Putin wanted to talk about.
-
2:21 - 2:23He's increasingly calling the shots.
-
2:23 - 2:26He's the one willing to do stuff there.
-
2:26 - 2:30There's not a lot of mutual like or trust,
-
2:30 - 2:33but it's not as if the Americans
are telling him what to do. -
2:33 - 2:35How about when the whole 20
are getting together? -
2:35 - 2:37Surely, when the leaders are all onstage,
-
2:37 - 2:39then the Americans
are pulling their weight. -
2:39 - 2:41Uh-oh.
-
2:41 - 2:42(Laughter)
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2:44 - 2:47Xi Jinping seems fine.
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2:47 - 2:49Angela Merkel has -- she always does --
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2:49 - 2:51that look, she always does that.
-
2:51 - 2:54But Putin is telling
Turkish president Erdogan what to do, -
2:54 - 2:59and Obama is like,
what's going on over there? -
3:00 - 3:03You see. And the problem is
it's not a G20, -
3:03 - 3:04the problem is
-
3:04 - 3:07it's a G-Zero world that we live in,
-
3:07 - 3:12a world order where there is
no single country or alliance -
3:12 - 3:15that can meet the challenges
of global leadership. -
3:15 - 3:17The G20 doesn't work,
-
3:18 - 3:21the G7, all of our friends,
that's history. -
3:22 - 3:24So globalization is continuing.
-
3:24 - 3:28Goods and services and people
and capital are moving across borders -
3:28 - 3:30faster and faster than ever before,
-
3:30 - 3:33but Americanization is not.
-
3:34 - 3:35So if I've convinced you of that,
-
3:35 - 3:38I want to do two things
with the rest of this talk. -
3:38 - 3:42I want to talk
about the implications of that -
3:42 - 3:43for the whole world.
-
3:43 - 3:45I'll go around it.
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3:45 - 3:46And then I want to talk about
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3:46 - 3:49what we think right here
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3:49 - 3:53in the United States and in New York.
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3:53 - 3:55So why? What are the implications.
Why are we here? -
3:55 - 3:57Well, we're here
-
3:57 - 4:00because the United States,
-
4:00 - 4:04we spent two trillion dollars
on wars in Iraq and Afghanistan -
4:04 - 4:05that were failed.
-
4:06 - 4:07We don't want to do that anymore.
-
4:07 - 4:11We have large numbers
of middle and working classes -
4:11 - 4:15that feel like they've not benefited
from promises of globalization, -
4:15 - 4:17so they don't want to see it particularly.
-
4:18 - 4:20And we have an energy revolution
-
4:20 - 4:23where we don't need OPEC
or the Middle East the way we used to. -
4:24 - 4:26We produce all that right here
in the United States. -
4:26 - 4:31So the Americans don't want
to be the global sheriff for security -
4:31 - 4:34or the architect of global trade.
-
4:34 - 4:37The Americans don't want to even be
the cheerleader of global values. -
4:37 - 4:41Well, then you look to Europe,
-
4:41 - 4:43and the most important
alliance in the world -
4:43 - 4:46has been the transatlantic relationship.
-
4:46 - 4:50But it is now weaker than it has been
at any point since World War II, -
4:50 - 4:53all of the crises,
the Brexit conversations, -
4:53 - 4:57the hedging going on
between the French and the Russians, -
4:57 - 5:00or the Germans and the Turks,
or the Brits and the Chinese. -
5:01 - 5:03China does want to do more leadership.
-
5:03 - 5:06They do, but only in the economic sphere,
-
5:06 - 5:09and they want their own values,
standards, currency, -
5:09 - 5:11in competition with that of the US.
-
5:11 - 5:13The Russians want to do more leadership.
-
5:13 - 5:15You see that in Ukraine,
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5:15 - 5:18in the Baltic states, in the Middle East,
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5:18 - 5:20but not with the Americans.
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5:20 - 5:23They want their own preferences and order.
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5:23 - 5:25That's why we are where we are.
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5:25 - 5:29So what happens going forward?
-
5:29 - 5:31Let's start easy,
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5:31 - 5:32with the Middle East.
-
5:33 - 5:35(Laughter)
-
5:37 - 5:39You know, I left a little out,
-
5:39 - 5:43but you get the general idea.
-
5:43 - 5:44Look, there are three reasons
-
5:44 - 5:49why the Middle East
has had stability such as it is. Right? -
5:49 - 5:53One is because there was
a willingness to provide -
5:53 - 5:57some level of military security
by the US and allies. -
5:57 - 6:01Number two, it was easy to take
a lot of cheap money out of the ground -
6:01 - 6:03because oil was expensive.
-
6:03 - 6:04And number three
-
6:04 - 6:10was no matter how bad the leaders were,
the populations were relatively quiescent. -
6:10 - 6:12They didn't have the ability,
and many didn't have the will -
6:12 - 6:14to really rise up against.
-
6:14 - 6:16Well, I can tell you, in a G-Zero world,
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6:16 - 6:20all three of those things
are increasingly not true, -
6:20 - 6:22and so failed states,
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6:22 - 6:26terrorism, refugees and the rest.
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6:26 - 6:28Does the entire Middle East fall apart?
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6:28 - 6:31No, the Kurds will do better,
and Iraq, Israel, Iran over time. -
6:31 - 6:34But generally speaking,
it's not a good look. -
6:34 - 6:37OK, how about this guy?
-
6:37 - 6:40He's playing a poor hand very well.
-
6:40 - 6:43There's no question
he's hitting above his weight. -
6:43 - 6:46But long term -- I didn't mean that.
-
6:46 - 6:50But long term, long term,
-
6:50 - 6:52if you think that the Russians
-
6:52 - 6:58were antagonized by the US and Europe
expanding NATO right up to their borders -
6:58 - 6:59when we said they weren't going to,
-
6:59 - 7:02and the EU encroaching them,
-
7:02 - 7:05just wait until the Chinese
put hundreds of billions of dollars -
7:05 - 7:08in every country around Russia
they thought they had influence in. -
7:08 - 7:12The Chinese are going to dominate it.
The Russians are picking up the crumbs. -
7:12 - 7:18In a G-Zero world, this is going to be
a very tense 10 years for Mr. Putin. -
7:21 - 7:24It's not all bad. Right?
-
7:24 - 7:26Asia actually looks a lot better.
-
7:26 - 7:29There are real leaders across Asia,
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7:29 - 7:32they have a lot of political stability.
-
7:32 - 7:33They're there for a while.
-
7:33 - 7:35Mr. Modi in India,
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7:35 - 7:39Mr. Abe, who is probably
about to get a third term written in -
7:39 - 7:41in the Liberal Democratic Party in Japan,
-
7:41 - 7:44of course Xi Jinping
who is consolidating enormous power, -
7:44 - 7:47the most powerful leader in China
-
7:47 - 7:48since Mao.
-
7:48 - 7:52Those are the three
most important economies in Asia. -
7:52 - 7:53Now look, there are problems in Asia.
-
7:53 - 7:56We see the sparring
over the South China Sea. -
7:56 - 7:59We see that Kim Jong Un,
just in the last couple of days, -
7:59 - 8:02tested yet another nuclear weapon.
-
8:02 - 8:06But the leaders in Asia
do not feel the need -
8:06 - 8:08to wave the flag,
-
8:08 - 8:10to go xenophobic,
-
8:10 - 8:13to actually allow escalation
-
8:13 - 8:15of the geopolitical
and cross-border tensions. -
8:15 - 8:21They want to focus on long-term
economic stability and growth. -
8:21 - 8:23And that's what they're actually doing.
-
8:24 - 8:25Let's turn to Europe.
-
8:26 - 8:29Europe does look a little scared
in this environment. -
8:29 - 8:31So much of what is happening
in the Middle East -
8:31 - 8:36is washing up quite literally
onto European shores. -
8:36 - 8:40You see Brexit and you see
the concerns of populism -
8:40 - 8:43across all of the European states.
-
8:43 - 8:46Let me tell you that over the long term,
-
8:46 - 8:48in a G-Zero world,
-
8:48 - 8:52European expansion
will be seen to have gone too far. -
8:53 - 8:56Europe went right up to Russia,
went right down to the Middle East, -
8:56 - 9:01and if the world were truly becoming
more flat and more Americanized, -
9:01 - 9:02that would be less of a problem,
-
9:02 - 9:06but in a G-Zero world,
those countries nearest Russia -
9:06 - 9:07and nearest the Middle East
-
9:07 - 9:11actually have different
economic capabilities, -
9:11 - 9:13different social stability
-
9:13 - 9:17and different political preferences
and systems than core Europe. -
9:17 - 9:20So Europe was able to truly expand
-
9:20 - 9:22under the G7,
-
9:22 - 9:24but under the G-Zero,
Europe will get smaller. -
9:24 - 9:28Core Europe around Germany
and France and others -
9:29 - 9:33will still work, be functional,
stable, wealthy, integrated. -
9:33 - 9:34But the periphery,
-
9:34 - 9:36countries like Greece
and Turkey and others, -
9:37 - 9:39will not look that good at all.
-
9:40 - 9:44Latin America, a lot of populism,
-
9:44 - 9:46made the economies not go so well.
-
9:46 - 9:48They had been more opposed
to the United States for decades. -
9:49 - 9:50Increasingly, they're coming back.
-
9:50 - 9:52We see that in Argentina.
-
9:52 - 9:54We see it with the openness in Cuba.
-
9:54 - 9:57We will see it in Venezuela
when Maduro falls. -
9:57 - 10:00We will see it in Brazil
after the impeachment -
10:00 - 10:04and when we finally see
a new legitimate president elected there. -
10:05 - 10:08The only place you see
that is moving in another direction -
10:08 - 10:11is the unpopularity
of Mexican president Peña Nieto. -
10:11 - 10:15There you could actually see
a slip away from the United States -
10:15 - 10:17over the coming years.
-
10:17 - 10:20The US election matters a lot
on that one, too. -
10:20 - 10:21(Laughter)
-
10:22 - 10:23Africa, right?
-
10:23 - 10:27A lot of people have said
it's going to be Africa's decade, finally. -
10:27 - 10:30In a G-Zero world,
it is absolutely an amazing time -
10:30 - 10:32for a few African countries,
-
10:32 - 10:35those governed well
with a lot of urbanization, -
10:35 - 10:38a lot of smart people,
women really getting into the workforce, -
10:38 - 10:40entrepreneurship taking off.
-
10:40 - 10:43But for most of the countries in Africa,
-
10:43 - 10:45it's going to be a lot more dicey:
-
10:45 - 10:48extreme climate conditions,
-
10:48 - 10:52radicalism both from Islam
and also Christianity, -
10:52 - 10:54very poor governance,
-
10:54 - 10:57borders you can't defend,
lots of forced migration. -
10:57 - 10:59Those countries can fall off the map.
-
10:59 - 11:03So you're really going to see
an extreme segregation going on -
11:03 - 11:06between the winners
and the losers across Africa. -
11:06 - 11:10Finally, back to the United States.
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11:10 - 11:12What do I think about us?
-
11:12 - 11:15Because there are a lot of upset people,
-
11:15 - 11:18not here at TEDx, I know,
-
11:18 - 11:20but in the United States, my God,
-
11:20 - 11:22after 15 months of campaigning,
we should be upset. -
11:22 - 11:24I understand that.
-
11:24 - 11:27But a lot of people are upset
because they say, "Washington's broken, -
11:27 - 11:30we don't trust the establishment,
we hate the media." -
11:30 - 11:34Heck, even globalists like me
are taking it on the chin. -
11:34 - 11:39Look, I do think we have to recognize,
-
11:39 - 11:41my fellow campers,
-
11:41 - 11:45that when you are being
chased by the bear, -
11:45 - 11:50in the global context,
you need not outrun the bear, -
11:50 - 11:52you need to only outrun
your fellow campers. -
11:52 - 11:55(Laughter)
-
11:56 - 11:58Now, I just told you
-
11:58 - 12:00about our fellow campers.
-
12:00 - 12:03Right? And from that perspective,
-
12:03 - 12:05we look OK.
-
12:05 - 12:07A lot of people in that context say,
-
12:07 - 12:11"Let's go dollar.
Let's go New York real estate. -
12:11 - 12:14Let's send our kids
to American universities." -
12:14 - 12:16You know, our neighbors are awesome:
-
12:16 - 12:19Canada, Mexico
and two big bodies of water. -
12:19 - 12:23You know how much Turkey
would love to have neighbors like that? -
12:23 - 12:25Those are awesome neighbors.
-
12:26 - 12:29Terrorism is a problem
in the United States. -
12:29 - 12:32God knows we know it here in New York.
-
12:32 - 12:35But it's a much bigger problem
in Europe than the US. -
12:35 - 12:37It's a much bigger problem
in the Middle East -
12:37 - 12:38than it is in Europe.
-
12:38 - 12:41These are factors of large magnitude.
-
12:41 - 12:46We just accepted 10,000 Syrian refugees,
and we're complaining bitterly about it. -
12:46 - 12:48You know why?
Because they can't swim here. -
12:48 - 12:53Right? I mean, the Turks would love
to have only 10,000 Syrian refugees. -
12:53 - 12:56The Jordanians,
the Germans, the Brits. Right? -
12:57 - 12:58That's not the situation.
-
12:58 - 13:01That's the reality of the United States.
-
13:01 - 13:04Now, that sounds pretty good.
-
13:04 - 13:07Here's the challenge.
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13:07 - 13:10In a G-Zero world, the way you lead
-
13:11 - 13:12is by example.
-
13:12 - 13:15If we know we don't want to be
the global cop anymore, -
13:15 - 13:18if we know we're not going to be
the architect of global trade, -
13:18 - 13:21we're not going to be
the cheerleader of global values, -
13:21 - 13:23we're not going to do it
the way we used to, -
13:23 - 13:24the 21st century is changing,
-
13:24 - 13:27we need to lead by example --
be so compelling -
13:27 - 13:30that all these other people
are going to still say, -
13:30 - 13:32it's not just they're faster campers.
-
13:32 - 13:35Even when the bear is not chasing us,
this is a good place to be. -
13:35 - 13:36We want to emulate them.
-
13:37 - 13:41The election process this year
is not proving a good option -
13:42 - 13:44for leading by example.
-
13:45 - 13:47Hillary Clinton says
it's going to be like the '90s. -
13:47 - 13:50We can still be
that cheerleader on values. -
13:50 - 13:53We can still be
the architect of global trade. -
13:53 - 13:54We can still be the global sheriff.
-
13:54 - 13:57And Donald Trump wants
to bring us back to the '30s. -
13:59 - 14:02He's saying, "Our way or the highway.
You don't like it, lump it." Right? -
14:03 - 14:06Neither are recognizing
a fundamental truth of the G-Zero, -
14:06 - 14:10which is that even though
the US is not in decline, -
14:10 - 14:13it is getting objectively harder
-
14:13 - 14:16for the Americans to impose their will,
-
14:16 - 14:18even have great influence,
-
14:18 - 14:20on the global order.
-
14:20 - 14:24Are we prepared to truly lead by example?
-
14:24 - 14:27What would we have to do to fix this
-
14:27 - 14:28after November,
-
14:29 - 14:31after the next president comes in?
-
14:31 - 14:35Well, either we have to have
another crisis that forces us to respond. -
14:35 - 14:37A depression would do that.
-
14:37 - 14:39Another global financial
crisis could do this. -
14:39 - 14:41God forbid, another 9/11 could do that.
-
14:41 - 14:44Or, absent crisis,
-
14:44 - 14:50we need to see that the hollowing out,
the inequality, the challenges -
14:50 - 14:52that are growing and growing
in the United States, -
14:52 - 14:55are themselves urgent enough
-
14:55 - 14:57to force our leaders to change,
-
14:57 - 14:59and that we have those voices.
-
14:59 - 15:01Through our cell phones, individually,
-
15:01 - 15:04we have those voices
to compel them to change. -
15:05 - 15:07There is, of course, a third choice,
-
15:08 - 15:10perhaps the most likely one,
-
15:10 - 15:13which is that we do
neither of those things, -
15:13 - 15:15and in four years time you invite me back,
-
15:16 - 15:18and I will give this speech yet again.
-
15:18 - 15:20Thank you very, very much.
-
15:20 - 15:24(Applause)
- Title:
- How the US should use its superpower status
- Speaker:
- Ian Bremmer
- Description:
-
Americanization and globalization have basically been the same thing for the last several generations. But the US's view of the world -- and the world's view of the US -- is changing. In a fast-paced tour of the current state of international politics, Ian Bremmer discusses the challenges of a world where no single country or alliance can meet the challenges of global leadership and asks if the US is ready to lead by example, not by force.
- Video Language:
- English
- Team:
- closed TED
- Project:
- TEDTalks
- Duration:
- 15:37
Brian Greene edited English subtitles for How the US should use its superpower status | ||
Brian Greene approved English subtitles for How the US should use its superpower status | ||
Brian Greene edited English subtitles for How the US should use its superpower status | ||
Joanna Pietrulewicz accepted English subtitles for How the US should use its superpower status | ||
Joanna Pietrulewicz edited English subtitles for How the US should use its superpower status | ||
Joanna Pietrulewicz edited English subtitles for How the US should use its superpower status | ||
Joseph Geni edited English subtitles for How the US should use its superpower status | ||
Joseph Geni edited English subtitles for How the US should use its superpower status |