Can we prevent the end of the world?
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0:00 - 0:03Ten years ago, I wrote a book which I entitled
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0:03 - 0:06"Our Final Century?" Question mark.
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0:06 - 0:09My publishers cut out the question mark. (Laughter)
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0:09 - 0:11The American publishers changed our title
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0:11 - 0:15to "Our Final Hour."
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0:15 - 0:19Americans like instant gratification and the reverse.
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0:19 - 0:20(Laughter)
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0:20 - 0:22And my theme was this:
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0:22 - 0:26Our Earth has existed for 45 million centuries,
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0:26 - 0:28but this one is special —
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0:28 - 0:31it's the first where one species, ours,
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0:31 - 0:34has the planet's future in its hands.
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0:34 - 0:36Over nearly all of Earth's history,
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0:36 - 0:38threats have come from nature —
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0:38 - 0:42disease, earthquakes, asteroids and so forth —
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0:42 - 0:47but from now on, the worst dangers come from us.
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0:47 - 0:50And it's now not just the nuclear threat;
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0:50 - 0:52in our interconnected world,
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0:52 - 0:55network breakdowns can cascade globally;
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0:55 - 0:59air travel can spread pandemics
worldwide within days; -
0:59 - 1:03and social media can spread panic and rumor
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1:03 - 1:06literally at the speed of light.
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1:06 - 1:09We fret too much about minor hazards —
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1:09 - 1:13improbable air crashes, carcinogens in food,
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1:13 - 1:15low radiation doses, and so forth —
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1:15 - 1:18but we and our political masters
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1:18 - 1:22are in denial about catastrophic scenarios.
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1:22 - 1:25The worst have thankfully not yet happened.
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1:25 - 1:28Indeed, they probably won't.
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1:28 - 1:31But if an event is potentially devastating,
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1:31 - 1:34it's worth paying a substantial premium
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1:34 - 1:38to safeguard against it, even if it's unlikely,
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1:38 - 1:42just as we take out fire insurance on our house.
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1:42 - 1:47And as science offers greater power and promise,
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1:47 - 1:51the downside gets scarier too.
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1:51 - 1:53We get ever more vulnerable.
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1:53 - 1:55Within a few decades,
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1:55 - 1:57millions will have the capability
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1:57 - 2:00to misuse rapidly advancing biotech,
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2:00 - 2:04just as they misuse cybertech today.
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2:04 - 2:07Freeman Dyson, in a TED Talk,
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2:07 - 2:11foresaw that children will design
and create new organisms -
2:11 - 2:15just as routinely as his generation
played with chemistry sets. -
2:15 - 2:18Well, this may be on the science fiction fringe,
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2:18 - 2:21but were even part of his scenario to come about,
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2:21 - 2:24our ecology and even our species
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2:24 - 2:28would surely not survive long unscathed.
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2:28 - 2:31For instance, there are some eco-extremists
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2:31 - 2:34who think that it would be better for the planet,
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2:34 - 2:37for Gaia, if there were far fewer humans.
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2:37 - 2:40What happens when such people have mastered
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2:40 - 2:42synthetic biology techniques
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2:42 - 2:45that will be widespread by 2050?
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2:45 - 2:48And by then, other science fiction nightmares
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2:48 - 2:50may transition to reality:
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2:50 - 2:52dumb robots going rogue,
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2:52 - 2:54or a network that develops a mind of its own
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2:54 - 2:57threatens us all.
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2:57 - 3:00Well, can we guard against such risks by regulation?
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3:00 - 3:03We must surely try, but these enterprises
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3:03 - 3:06are so competitive, so globalized,
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3:06 - 3:08and so driven by commercial pressure,
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3:08 - 3:11that anything that can be done
will be done somewhere, -
3:11 - 3:13whatever the regulations say.
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3:13 - 3:17It's like the drug laws — we try to regulate, but can't.
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3:17 - 3:20And the global village will have its village idiots,
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3:20 - 3:23and they'll have a global range.
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3:23 - 3:26So as I said in my book,
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3:26 - 3:29we'll have a bumpy ride through this century.
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3:29 - 3:32There may be setbacks to our society —
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3:32 - 3:36indeed, a 50 percent chance of a severe setback.
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3:36 - 3:39But are there conceivable events
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3:39 - 3:41that could be even worse,
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3:41 - 3:45events that could snuff out all life?
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3:45 - 3:48When a new particle accelerator came online,
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3:48 - 3:49some people anxiously asked,
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3:49 - 3:52could it destroy the Earth or, even worse,
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3:52 - 3:54rip apart the fabric of space?
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3:54 - 3:58Well luckily, reassurance could be offered.
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3:58 - 4:00I and others pointed out that nature
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4:00 - 4:02has done the same experiments
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4:02 - 4:04zillions of times already,
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4:04 - 4:06via cosmic ray collisions.
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4:06 - 4:09But scientists should surely be precautionary
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4:09 - 4:11about experiments that generate conditions
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4:11 - 4:14without precedent in the natural world.
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4:14 - 4:17Biologists should avoid release
of potentially devastating -
4:17 - 4:20genetically modified pathogens.
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4:20 - 4:24And by the way, our special aversion
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4:24 - 4:27to the risk of truly existential disasters
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4:27 - 4:30depends on a philosophical and ethical question,
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4:30 - 4:32and it's this:
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4:32 - 4:34Consider two scenarios.
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4:34 - 4:40Scenario A wipes out 90 percent of humanity.
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4:40 - 4:43Scenario B wipes out 100 percent.
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4:43 - 4:46How much worse is B than A?
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4:46 - 4:49Some would say 10 percent worse.
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4:49 - 4:53The body count is 10 percent higher.
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4:53 - 4:55But I claim that B is incomparably worse.
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4:55 - 4:58As an astronomer, I can't believe
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4:58 - 5:01that humans are the end of the story.
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5:01 - 5:04It is five billion years before the sun flares up,
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5:04 - 5:07and the universe may go on forever,
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5:07 - 5:09so post-human evolution,
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5:09 - 5:11here on Earth and far beyond,
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5:11 - 5:14could be as prolonged as the Darwinian process
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5:14 - 5:17that's led to us, and even more wonderful.
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5:17 - 5:20And indeed, future evolution
will happen much faster, -
5:20 - 5:22on a technological timescale,
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5:22 - 5:24not a natural selection timescale.
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5:24 - 5:28So we surely, in view of those immense stakes,
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5:28 - 5:32shouldn't accept even a one in a billion risk
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5:32 - 5:34that human extinction would foreclose
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5:34 - 5:36this immense potential.
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5:36 - 5:38Some scenarios that have been envisaged
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5:38 - 5:40may indeed be science fiction,
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5:40 - 5:43but others may be disquietingly real.
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5:43 - 5:46It's an important maxim that the unfamiliar
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5:46 - 5:49is not the same as the improbable,
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5:49 - 5:51and in fact, that's why we at Cambridge University
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5:51 - 5:55are setting up a center to study how to mitigate
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5:55 - 5:57these existential risks.
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5:57 - 6:00It seems it's worthwhile just for a few people
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6:00 - 6:02to think about these potential disasters.
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6:02 - 6:05And we need all the help we can get from others,
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6:05 - 6:08because we are stewards of a precious
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6:08 - 6:11pale blue dot in a vast cosmos,
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6:11 - 6:14a planet with 50 million centuries ahead of it.
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6:14 - 6:17And so let's not jeopardize that future.
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6:17 - 6:19And I'd like to finish with a quote
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6:19 - 6:22from a great scientist called Peter Medawar.
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6:22 - 6:26I quote, "The bells that toll for mankind
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6:26 - 6:28are like the bells of Alpine cattle.
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6:28 - 6:30They are attached to our own necks,
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6:30 - 6:33and it must be our fault if they do not make
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6:33 - 6:35a tuneful and melodious sound."
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6:35 - 6:38Thank you very much.
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6:38 - 6:40(Applause)
- Title:
- Can we prevent the end of the world?
- Speaker:
- Sir Martin Rees
- Description:
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A post-apocalyptic Earth, emptied of humans, seems like the stuff of science fiction TV and movies. But in this short, surprising talk, Lord Martin Rees asks us to think about our real existential risks — natural and human-made threats that could wipe out humanity. As a concerned member of the human race, he asks: What’s the worst thing that could possibly happen?
- Video Language:
- English
- Team:
- closed TED
- Project:
- TEDTalks
- Duration:
- 06:52
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Morton Bast edited English subtitles for Can we prevent the end of the world? | ||
Morton Bast edited English subtitles for Can we prevent the end of the world? | ||
Madeleine Aronson accepted English subtitles for Can we prevent the end of the world? | ||
Madeleine Aronson edited English subtitles for Can we prevent the end of the world? | ||
Madeleine Aronson edited English subtitles for Can we prevent the end of the world? |