[Script Info]
Title: 
[Events]
Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text
Dialogue: 0,0:00:00.48,0:00:02.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Ten years ago, I wrote a book which I entitled
Dialogue: 0,0:00:02.71,0:00:05.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Our Final Century?" Question mark.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:05.80,0:00:09.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,My publishers cut out the question mark. (Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:00:09.38,0:00:11.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The American publishers changed our title
Dialogue: 0,0:00:11.26,0:00:15.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to "Our Final Hour."
Dialogue: 0,0:00:15.17,0:00:18.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Americans like instant gratification and the reverse.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:18.66,0:00:20.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:00:20.37,0:00:22.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And my theme was this:
Dialogue: 0,0:00:22.12,0:00:26.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Our Earth has existed for 45 million centuries,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:26.28,0:00:28.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but this one is special —
Dialogue: 0,0:00:28.30,0:00:31.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's the first where one species, ours,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:31.31,0:00:34.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,has the planet's future in its hands.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:34.12,0:00:36.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Over nearly all of Earth's history,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:36.10,0:00:38.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,threats have come from nature —
Dialogue: 0,0:00:38.04,0:00:41.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,disease, earthquakes, asteroids and so forth —
Dialogue: 0,0:00:41.54,0:00:47.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but from now on, the worst dangers come from us.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:47.21,0:00:50.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And it's now not just the nuclear threat;
Dialogue: 0,0:00:50.48,0:00:52.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in our interconnected world,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:52.23,0:00:55.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,network breakdowns can cascade globally;
Dialogue: 0,0:00:55.39,0:00:59.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,air travel can spread pandemics\Nworldwide within days;
Dialogue: 0,0:00:59.35,0:01:02.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and social media can spread panic and rumor
Dialogue: 0,0:01:02.68,0:01:05.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,literally at the speed of light.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:05.89,0:01:09.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We fret too much about minor hazards —
Dialogue: 0,0:01:09.12,0:01:13.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,improbable air crashes, carcinogens in food,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:13.15,0:01:15.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,low radiation doses, and so forth —
Dialogue: 0,0:01:15.38,0:01:18.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but we and our political masters
Dialogue: 0,0:01:18.20,0:01:22.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are in denial about catastrophic scenarios.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:22.40,0:01:25.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The worst have thankfully not yet happened.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:25.44,0:01:27.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Indeed, they probably won't.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:27.64,0:01:30.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But if an event is potentially devastating,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:30.82,0:01:33.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's worth paying a substantial premium
Dialogue: 0,0:01:33.69,0:01:37.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to safeguard against it, even if it's unlikely,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:37.53,0:01:42.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,just as we take out fire insurance on our house.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:42.04,0:01:47.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And as science offers greater power and promise,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:47.04,0:01:50.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the downside gets scarier too.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:50.90,0:01:53.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We get ever more vulnerable.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:53.14,0:01:54.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Within a few decades,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:54.98,0:01:57.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,millions will have the capability
Dialogue: 0,0:01:57.21,0:02:00.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to misuse rapidly advancing biotech,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:00.33,0:02:03.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,just as they misuse cybertech today.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:03.88,0:02:07.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Freeman Dyson, in a TED Talk,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:07.08,0:02:10.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,foresaw that children will design\Nand create new organisms
Dialogue: 0,0:02:10.68,0:02:15.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,just as routinely as his generation\Nplayed with chemistry sets.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:15.19,0:02:17.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, this may be on the science fiction fringe,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:17.72,0:02:20.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but were even part of his scenario to come about,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:20.90,0:02:23.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,our ecology and even our species
Dialogue: 0,0:02:23.64,0:02:27.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,would surely not survive long unscathed.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:27.63,0:02:31.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For instance, there are some eco-extremists
Dialogue: 0,0:02:31.49,0:02:33.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who think that it would be better for the planet,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:33.100,0:02:37.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for Gaia, if there were far fewer humans.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:37.40,0:02:40.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What happens when such people have mastered
Dialogue: 0,0:02:40.12,0:02:42.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,synthetic biology techniques
Dialogue: 0,0:02:42.26,0:02:45.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that will be widespread by 2050?
Dialogue: 0,0:02:45.11,0:02:48.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And by then, other science fiction nightmares
Dialogue: 0,0:02:48.15,0:02:49.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,may transition to reality:
Dialogue: 0,0:02:49.86,0:02:51.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,dumb robots going rogue,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:51.93,0:02:54.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or a network that develops a mind of its own
Dialogue: 0,0:02:54.35,0:02:56.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,threatens us all.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:56.94,0:03:00.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, can we guard against such risks by regulation?
Dialogue: 0,0:03:00.21,0:03:02.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We must surely try, but these enterprises
Dialogue: 0,0:03:02.61,0:03:06.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are so competitive, so globalized,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:06.14,0:03:08.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and so driven by commercial pressure,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:08.12,0:03:11.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that anything that can be done\Nwill be done somewhere,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:11.41,0:03:13.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,whatever the regulations say.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:13.44,0:03:16.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's like the drug laws — we try to regulate, but can't.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:16.93,0:03:19.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the global village will have its village idiots,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:19.97,0:03:23.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they'll have a global range.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:23.47,0:03:25.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So as I said in my book,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:25.76,0:03:28.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we'll have a bumpy ride through this century.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:28.65,0:03:32.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There may be setbacks to our society —
Dialogue: 0,0:03:32.14,0:03:36.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,indeed, a 50 percent chance of a severe setback.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:36.26,0:03:39.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But are there conceivable events
Dialogue: 0,0:03:39.17,0:03:41.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that could be even worse,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:41.33,0:03:44.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,events that could snuff out all life?
Dialogue: 0,0:03:44.76,0:03:47.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When a new particle accelerator came online,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:47.69,0:03:49.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,some people anxiously asked,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:49.48,0:03:51.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,could it destroy the Earth or, even worse,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:51.72,0:03:54.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,rip apart the fabric of space?
Dialogue: 0,0:03:54.38,0:03:57.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well luckily, reassurance could be offered.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:57.93,0:03:59.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I and others pointed out that nature
Dialogue: 0,0:03:59.97,0:04:01.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,has done the same experiments
Dialogue: 0,0:04:01.90,0:04:04.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,zillions of times already,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:04.09,0:04:05.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,via cosmic ray collisions.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:05.86,0:04:08.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But scientists should surely be precautionary
Dialogue: 0,0:04:08.91,0:04:11.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about experiments that generate conditions
Dialogue: 0,0:04:11.49,0:04:13.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,without precedent in the natural world.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:13.97,0:04:17.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Biologists should avoid release\Nof potentially devastating
Dialogue: 0,0:04:17.40,0:04:20.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,genetically modified pathogens.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:20.11,0:04:23.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And by the way, our special aversion
Dialogue: 0,0:04:23.63,0:04:27.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to the risk of truly existential disasters
Dialogue: 0,0:04:27.09,0:04:30.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,depends on a philosophical and ethical question,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:30.36,0:04:32.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it's this:
Dialogue: 0,0:04:32.03,0:04:34.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Consider two scenarios.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:34.34,0:04:39.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Scenario A wipes out 90 percent of humanity.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:39.58,0:04:43.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Scenario B wipes out 100 percent.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:43.47,0:04:46.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,How much worse is B than A?
Dialogue: 0,0:04:46.39,0:04:49.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Some would say 10 percent worse.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:49.41,0:04:52.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The body count is 10 percent higher.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:52.56,0:04:55.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But I claim that B is incomparably worse.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:55.47,0:04:58.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,As an astronomer, I can't believe
Dialogue: 0,0:04:58.10,0:05:00.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that humans are the end of the story.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:00.57,0:05:03.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It is five billion years before the sun flares up,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:03.89,0:05:06.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the universe may go on forever,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:06.60,0:05:08.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so post-human evolution,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:08.89,0:05:11.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,here on Earth and far beyond,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:11.08,0:05:13.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,could be as prolonged as the Darwinian process
Dialogue: 0,0:05:13.80,0:05:17.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that's led to us, and even more wonderful.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:17.08,0:05:19.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And indeed, future evolution\Nwill happen much faster,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:19.74,0:05:21.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on a technological timescale,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:21.94,0:05:24.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not a natural selection timescale.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:24.24,0:05:28.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So we surely, in view of those immense stakes,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:28.43,0:05:31.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,shouldn't accept even a one in a billion risk
Dialogue: 0,0:05:31.82,0:05:34.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that human extinction would foreclose
Dialogue: 0,0:05:34.05,0:05:36.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this immense potential.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:36.36,0:05:38.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Some scenarios that have been envisaged
Dialogue: 0,0:05:38.13,0:05:39.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,may indeed be science fiction,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:39.95,0:05:43.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but others may be disquietingly real.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:43.34,0:05:46.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's an important maxim that the unfamiliar
Dialogue: 0,0:05:46.21,0:05:48.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is not the same as the improbable,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:48.91,0:05:51.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and in fact, that's why we at Cambridge University
Dialogue: 0,0:05:51.30,0:05:54.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are setting up a center to study how to mitigate
Dialogue: 0,0:05:54.68,0:05:56.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,these existential risks.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:56.71,0:05:59.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It seems it's worthwhile just for a few people
Dialogue: 0,0:05:59.78,0:06:02.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to think about these potential disasters.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:02.09,0:06:05.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And we need all the help we can get from others,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:05.10,0:06:07.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because we are stewards of a precious
Dialogue: 0,0:06:07.58,0:06:11.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,pale blue dot in a vast cosmos,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:11.07,0:06:14.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a planet with 50 million centuries ahead of it.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:14.44,0:06:17.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so let's not jeopardize that future.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:17.00,0:06:18.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I'd like to finish with a quote
Dialogue: 0,0:06:18.80,0:06:22.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from a great scientist called Peter Medawar.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:22.30,0:06:25.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I quote, "The bells that toll for mankind
Dialogue: 0,0:06:25.57,0:06:28.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are like the bells of Alpine cattle.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:28.21,0:06:30.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They are attached to our own necks,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:30.50,0:06:33.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it must be our fault if they do not make
Dialogue: 0,0:06:33.17,0:06:35.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a tuneful and melodious sound."
Dialogue: 0,0:06:35.30,0:06:37.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Thank you very much.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:37.57,0:06:39.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Applause)