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(Ian Goldin) Great, thank you: it's
wonderful to be with educators
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who care about the intersection
of learning and technology,
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because that's going to shape the future.
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Whether we're able
to get this right or not
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will determine whether we have
a glorious 21st century
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or a period of unmitigated risks.
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The walls are coming down everywhere and
it's difficult to not think about this,
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being so close to it, here in Berlin,
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25 years ago, these walls coming down.
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But it's not just about physical walls
coming down,
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it's about mental walls,
it's about financial walls,
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it's about technological walls.
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All the walls are coming down,
and it's that
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which makes this the most exciting century
in the history of humanity.
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It changes all of our lives
in surprising ways.
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And it's certainly changed mine.
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I was living in Paris
when this wall came down.
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I didn't imagine that it would touch me
personally.
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I thought it was about Eastern Europe,
about the Cold War, about something else.
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But within 6 months, I would,
much to my surprise,
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I was invited to have dinner with
President Mandela in Paris.
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He wasn't president then,
he had just been released from prison.
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But he was released
because the Cold War ended.
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And the defining feature of this period
we live in, our lives,
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is that what happens elsewhere will
dramatically affect us in new ways.
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It's this change that results
from the walls coming down.
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And it's this change that will shape
education going forward
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and technological progress.
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And of course, the other fundamental
period of -- in this time --
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is technology, technology
which got off the ground
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at the same time as the Berlin Wall
came down, over 25 years,
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this exponential growth in
virtual connectivity.
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And now we have a world of 5 billion
literate, educated people
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whereas we had a world,
only 30 years ago,
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of well less than a billion
connected people.
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Four billion more literate
connected people in the world,
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and this is the engine of change,
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where the people in the slums of Mumbai,
Soweto's Sao Paulo (check)
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or in apartments in Berlin,
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they will contribute to change
in surprising new ways.
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And they're coming together.
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There is a release of individual genius.
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If you believe in the random distribution
of exceptional capabilities, which I do,
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there is just more people out there,
educated, connected, giving, learning.
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But I also believe in collective genius,
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the capabilities of people
coming together,
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to form teams,
to learn from each other
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through the methods that
we heard about this morning.
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and in other ways.
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So new cures for cancer being developed
on 24-hour cycles around the world.
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My lab in Oxford, doing this with people
in Beijing and San Francisco and Palo Alto
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and all over, in real time.
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There is no sleep on innovation any more.
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And that's the power, the engine,
which brings change.
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So if you think you've seen
a lot of change
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be ready for much more surprises.
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This is the slowest time in history
you will know.
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It's going to get faster,
the pace of change greater,
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the surprises more intense.
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It's always going to be
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more and more difficult
to predict what's next.
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Uncertainty will grow because
the pace of change is growing.
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Because the walls have come down,
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there are two billion more people
in the world since 1990.
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And that's because ideas have traveled,
simple ideas,
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like washing your hands prevents
contagious diseases;
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really complicated ideas
like those embedded in vaccines
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in new cures for cancer
and many other things.
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Two billion more people coming together,
most of them now urbanized,
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and even those that aren't
physically together,
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virtually together.
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A quite extraordinary moment
in human history,
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one where we've come together
as a community,
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like we were 150,000 years ago,
when we lived in villages together,
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our ancestors in East Africa,
and then dispersed around the world
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and now, reconnected.
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And it's this reconnection, which
I believe, gives us the potential.
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But do we learn from it?
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And are we able to think of ourselves
in new ways,
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because we're connecting in new ways?
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Is this wall coming down changing the way
we are and we think?
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Or do we still think like individualists
in our nation states,
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pursuing our own self-interest
and those of our countries,
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not realizing that now,
we are in a different game?
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Now we're in a game in which
we have to cooperate,
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where we have to think about others,
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where our actions, for the first time,
spill over in dramatic new ways
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and affect people
on the other side of the planet.
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This pace of education means that
not only are we liberating ourselves,
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but we're liberating people from
all sorts of past habits.
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And this change is leading
to quick changes in social norms.
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Acceptance of gay marriage
is one of those,
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but there'll be many, many, many others.
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And so, what we think about
as normal today
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will seem very strange
in a few years' time:
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this pace of change driven by education,
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more doctorates being created
in China now
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than in the rest of the world
put together every year,
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more scientists alive today
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than all the scientists
that ever lived in history,
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more literate people alive today
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than all the literate people
that ever lived in history.
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This is the engine of change.
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But it's not simply about
more and more progress.
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It's not simply that we know
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that this is going to get
better and better.
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It's about what's next.
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We don't know what the future holds.
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We live in this extraordinary moment
of our lives
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where we've seen exponential growth
in incomes: that's red.
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And we seen this most rapid
increase in populations,
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and income growth, even more rapid
than population growth, which is why
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people have escaped poverty at a pace
that has never happened in history.
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Despite the world's population increasing
by two billion over the last 25 years,
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the number of desperately poor people
has gone down by about 300 million.
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This has never happened before.
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This is an incredible time, by far
the best time to be alive.
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Just while you're here, your average
life expectancy should increase
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by about 10 hours.
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That's the pace of progress:
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what you're learning,
and what's happening in the labs.
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And it's that which makes me
incredibly optimistic.
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This is the age of discovery,
this is the new Renaissance.
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This is a period of creativity
and technological change
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which hasn't been seen for 500 years.
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This is from my stem cell lab
in the Oxford Martin School:
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the lab technician's skin
turned into a heart cell.
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And this is one of the
extraordinary things that's happening
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that makes one so excited
about the future.
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A future of rising life expectancy,
so children being born today
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in Berlin or elsewhere in Europe,
will have life expectancies well over 100,
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and not having to worry about the things
that I worry about,
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like Alzheimer's, Parkinson's and dementia.
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But what skills are they learning today
that will help them shape this future,
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prepare for it, and will still be relevant
in a hundred years time?
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It's those skills that you have
the responsibility to help shape.
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We can imagine this glorious future,
an extraordinary time in human history.
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But we can also realize
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that it could come very, very badly
at stuck.
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I looked at the Renaissance
for inspiration
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to try and understand how people
interpreted these choices.
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That was a period of
creative exceptionalism,
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scientific exceptionalism.
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And we think today of the iconic figures,
the Michelangelos, the Da Vincis,
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the Copernicuses,
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discovering the earth went round the sun,
not the other way round,
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fundamentally changing our understanding
of ourselves in the universe
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in ways that will happen
in our lifetimes.
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Fundamental changes
which lead to Humanism,
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Enlightenment and many,
many other things,
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spurred by technologies.
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Then, it was the Gutenberg press.
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Simple ideas travel very rapidly.
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Until then only monks
could read and write,
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in Latin, in their monasteries.
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Less than half of 1% of the world
was literate.
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There was nothing to read
-- and it was in Latin.
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And then, this invention lead
to a whole new way of thinking.
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Ideas traveled, people could learn
in their own languages,
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and we had the Renaissance.
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We also had the development
of nationalism
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because people could identify.
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and of course, massive
technological push-back.
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The Bonfire of the Vanities,
the burning of books,
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not far from here and across Europe.
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Destruction of presses,
religious fundamentalism,
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extremism,
religious wars for 150 years.
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Now if you recall those curves I put up,
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of the long trajectory of income growth
and population growth,
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but the Renaissance did not figure.
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It was a non-event,
it lead to no improvements
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in people's welfare in Europe or beyond.
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Are we different?
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Can we embrace our technologies in ways
that lead to sustained progress?
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And there are two things I worry about
in this respect.
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First, while the walls have gone down
between societies,
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within societies,
the walls are going up everywhere.
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All countries are experiencing
rising inequality.
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Why is this?
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It's because the pace of progress
is so fast at the frontier
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that this process of integration
-- some call it globalization --
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has led to such rapid change
that if you aren't on the frontier,
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if you don't have the skills,
the mobility, the attitude to change,
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to adapt, to grab new things,
you're left further and further behind.
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If you're in the wrong place,
with the wrong skills at the wrong time,
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or you're too old,
you're left further and further behind.
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And so we see in all societies
rising inequality.
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And some people have been able to capture
the goods of globalization.
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They've been able to park their money,
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whether they are a corporation
in Bermuda or somewhere,
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or an individual in Monaco
or Lichtenstein or Luxembourg.
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And so governments are becoming
less and less able
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to tax their citizens
and tax their corporates
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and less able to fund education,
health, infrastructure,
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and the other things we need.
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And the second big problem
of this integration process
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is when things connect.
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Unfortunately,
not only good stuff connects.
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Rarely, bad stuff connects too.
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And so the question is how do we have
this complex, dense, intertwined system
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without becoming overwhelmed by it?
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Are we able to manage
our interdependencies
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in ways that will be sustained
and benefit us,
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or will they overwhelm us?
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And this is both the intended
consequences which lead
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to unintended bads.
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Our intended consequence of using
more antibiotics around the world
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leading to antibiotic resistance.
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Or as our energy growth grows
around the world
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because people are escaping poverty,
leading to climate change.
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Or as our resource use increases
because people are consuming more food,
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leading to resource depletion.
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And the unintended consequences,
banks which spread around the globe
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becoming centers of cascading risk
and financial crisis.
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Airports spreading pandemics, what I call
the butterfly defect of globalization.
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The spreading of risk is not a new idea.
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We think in England that a rat coming
off a ship in Liverpool
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might have killed half the British
population in the Black Death.
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Early globalization leading
to systemic risk.
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But what's new is the pace
and scale of the change.
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So the swine flu that starts
in Mexico City
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in 160 countries in thirty days.
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And the emerging infections group
in the Oxford Martin School
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has modeled spread of this
with airline traffic
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and shown it exactly replicates.
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So the super-spreaders of the good
of globalization
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like JFK, Heathrow, Frankfurt,
and other great airports
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become the super-spreaders of the bads,
in this case, pandemics.
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And in the cybersphere, of course,
we see this dramatically,
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that anything can be instantaneously
elsewhere, be it good or be it bad.
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In finance, we've seen a dramatic
indication of this,
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this collapsing system starting
from a subprime crisis in the US
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leading to 100 million people laid off
in work from work around the world.
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So what happens somewhere
dramatically affecting people
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on the other side of the world
in the same way that my life
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was shaped, but sometimes
with disastrous consequences.
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And what the financial system also teaches
us is the rising power of individuals.
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These new technologies give individuals
simply unprecedented powers.
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Barings Bank had existed for 200 years.
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It had withstood the most amazing
technological, political, and other changes,
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and one young man, Nick Leeson,
having some fun, a bit of trading,
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managed to bring it down.
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And the same thing almost happened
in Societe Generale with Jerome Kerviel,
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JP Morgan, UBS, and many others.
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We see that these individuals
now have power in new ways.
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And of course, individuals can also
in new ways, develop biopathogens
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using a DNA sequencing which
is going down exponentially in price,
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a single individual now
can build something using
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a technology like a drone to distribute
it, and kill perhaps tens,
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if not hundreds of millions of people.
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This new capability, this new power
of individuals has changed
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so that nation states are becoming
less and less powerful
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relative to the power of individuals.
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And there are seven billion of us
growing to nine billion
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over the next 35 years.
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Within the cybersphere,
we see this dramatically,
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how small groups can cause mayhem,
steal all our records,
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open our bank accounts,
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They'll be opening our front door locks,
controlling our vehicle-to-vehicle
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communication, etc.
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Understanding how we build systems
which liberate us, and yet
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we do not become slaves
or vulnerable to, is the central question.
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Can we create interdependent systems
where we are in control,
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and what does that mean?
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And that education process requires
a new understanding of responsibility.
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As these technologies pervade into
our bodies and everything we do,
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it becomes more and more important.
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Trust, integrity, judgment,
these old things become more
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and more important.
-
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The financial crisis was characterized
by a number of remarkable things.
-
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Over 250,000 extremely well-paid
people in the central banks of the world
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in the IMF and other institutions
with this enormous amount of data
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do not see it coming.
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Too much data, too little integrity.
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And as machines begin to take our jobs
-
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-- and one of my groups in the Oxford
Martin School has said that 47% of US jobs
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will be lost to machine intelligence
over the next 20 years --
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people will increasingly see
machine intelligence as a threat
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not only to their bank accounts
and other systems,
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but to their jobs and their careers.
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And so, how do we create education
systems where we are not vulnerable
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to automation taking our jobs? (16:33)
Claude Almansi
Wow! Thanks a bunch, Mariana!
Claude Almansi
Again: thanks a lot, Cathy.
Best,
Claude
Mariana Arias
You're welcome, Claude. It's a great video. :)