Religions and babies
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0:00 - 0:03I'm going to talk about religion.
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0:03 - 0:08But it's a broad and very delicate subject,
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0:08 - 0:10so I have to limit myself.
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0:10 - 0:13And therefore I will limit myself
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0:13 - 0:17to only talk about the links between religion and sexuality.
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0:17 - 0:20(Laughter)
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0:20 - 0:22This is a very serious Talk.
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0:22 - 0:25So I will talk of what I remember as the most wonderful.
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0:25 - 0:29It's when the young couple whisper,
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0:29 - 0:30"Tonight we are going to make a baby."
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0:30 - 0:36My Talk will be about the impact of religions
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0:36 - 0:40on the number of babies per woman.
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0:40 - 0:43This is indeed important,
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0:43 - 0:44because everyone understands
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0:44 - 0:45that there is some sort of limit
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0:45 - 0:49on how many people we can be on this planet.
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0:49 - 0:50And there are some people
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0:50 - 0:54who say that the world population is growing like this --
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0:54 - 0:55three billion in 1960,
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0:55 - 0:59seven billion just last year --
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0:59 - 1:00and it will continue to grow
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1:00 - 1:05because there are religions that stop women from having few babies,
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1:05 - 1:07and it may continue like this.
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1:07 - 1:09To what extent are these people right?
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1:09 - 1:15When I was born there was less than one billion children in the world,
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1:15 - 1:20and today, 2000, there's almost two billion.
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1:20 - 1:22What has happened since,
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1:22 - 1:23and what do the experts predict will happen
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1:23 - 1:27with the number of children during this century?
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1:27 - 1:29This is a quiz. What do you think?
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1:29 - 1:32Do you think it will decrease to one billion?
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1:32 - 1:37Will it remain the same and be two billion by the end of the century?
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1:37 - 1:41Will the number of children increase each year up to 15 years,
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1:41 - 1:43or will it continue in the same fast rate
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1:43 - 1:45and be four billion children up there?
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1:45 - 1:49I will tell you by the end of my speech.
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1:49 - 1:53But now, what does religion have to do with it?
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1:53 - 1:56When you want to classify religion,
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1:56 - 1:57it's more difficult than you think.
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1:57 - 2:01You go to Wikipedia and the first map you find is this.
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2:01 - 2:06It divides the world into Abrahamic religions and Eastern religion,
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2:06 - 2:08but that's not detailed enough.
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2:08 - 2:12So we went on and we looked in Wikipedia, we found this map.
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2:12 - 2:17But that subdivides Christianity, Islam and Buddhism
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2:17 - 2:19into many subgroups,
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2:19 - 2:21which was too detailed.
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2:21 - 2:23Therefore at Gapminder we made our own map,
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2:23 - 2:25and it looks like this.
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2:25 - 2:29Each country's a bubble.
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2:29 - 2:33The size is the population -- big China, big India.
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2:33 - 2:36And the color now is the majority religion.
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2:36 - 2:39It's the religion where more than 50 percent of the people
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2:39 - 2:42say that they belong.
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2:42 - 2:46It's Eastern religion in India and China and neighboring Asian countries.
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2:46 - 2:48Islam is the majority religion
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2:48 - 2:52all the way from the Atlantic Ocean across the Middle East,
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2:52 - 2:54Southern Europe and through Asia
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2:54 - 2:57all the way to Indonesia.
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2:57 - 2:59That's where we find Islamic majority.
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2:59 - 3:05And Christian majority religions we see in these countries. They are blue.
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3:05 - 3:08And that is most countries in America and Europe,
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3:08 - 3:13many countries in Africa and a few in Asia.
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3:13 - 3:15The white here are countries which cannot be classified,
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3:15 - 3:18because one religion does not reach 50 percent
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3:18 - 3:19or there is doubt about the data or there's some other reason.
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3:19 - 3:22So we were careful with that.
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3:22 - 3:25So bear with our simplicity now when I take you over to this shot.
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3:25 - 3:28This is in 1960.
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3:28 - 3:32And now I show the number of babies per woman here:
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3:32 - 3:33two, four or six --
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3:33 - 3:37many babies, few babies.
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3:37 - 3:40And here the income per person in comparable dollars.
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3:40 - 3:43The reason for that is that many people say you have to get rich first
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3:43 - 3:44before you get few babies.
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3:44 - 3:49So low income here, high income there.
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3:49 - 3:50And indeed in 1960,
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3:50 - 3:53you had to be a rich Christian to have few babies.
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3:53 - 3:55The exception was Japan.
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3:55 - 3:58Japan here was regarded as an exception.
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3:58 - 4:00Otherwise it was only Christian countries.
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4:00 - 4:04But there was also many Christian countries
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4:04 - 4:05that had six to seven babies per woman.
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4:05 - 4:10But they were in Latin America or they were in Africa.
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4:10 - 4:14And countries with Islam as the majority religion,
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4:14 - 4:20all of them almost had six to seven children per woman,
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4:20 - 4:23irregardless of the income level.
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4:23 - 4:27And all these Eastern religions, except Japan have the same level.
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4:27 - 4:30Now let's see what has happened in the world.
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4:30 - 4:31I start the world, and here we go.
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4:31 - 4:33Now 1962 -- can you see they're getting a little richer,
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4:33 - 4:36but the number of babies per woman is falling.
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4:36 - 4:38Look at China. They're falling fairly fast.
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4:38 - 4:43And all of the Muslim majority countries across the income are coming down,
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4:43 - 4:48as do the Christian majority countries in the middle income range.
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4:48 - 4:51And when we enter into this century,
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4:51 - 4:55you'll find that more than half of mankind down here.
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4:55 - 4:58And by 2010, we are actually 80 percent of humans
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4:58 - 5:02who live in countries with about two children per woman.
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5:02 - 5:06(Applause)
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5:06 - 5:11It's a quite amazing development which has happened.
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5:11 - 5:12(Applause)
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5:12 - 5:15And these are countries from United States here,
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5:15 - 5:16with $40,000 per capita,
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5:16 - 5:20France, Russia, Iran,
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5:20 - 5:22Mexico, Turkey, Algeria,
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5:22 - 5:26Indonesia, India
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5:26 - 5:29and all the way to Bangladesh and Vietnam,
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5:29 - 5:34which has less than five percent of the income per person of the United States
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5:34 - 5:35and the same amount of babies per woman.
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5:35 - 5:40I can tell you that the data on the number of children per woman
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5:40 - 5:42is surprisingly good in all countries.
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5:42 - 5:43We get that from the census data.
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5:43 - 5:45It's not one of these statistics which is very doubtful.
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5:45 - 5:48So what we can conclude
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5:48 - 5:51is you don't have to get rich to have few children.
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5:51 - 5:53It has happened across the world.
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5:53 - 5:56And then when we look at religions,
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5:56 - 5:57we can see that the Eastern religions,
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5:57 - 6:02indeed there's not one single country with a majority of that religion
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6:02 - 6:04that does more than three children.
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6:04 - 6:07Whereas with Islam as a majority religion and Christianity,
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6:07 - 6:10you see countries all the way.
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6:10 - 6:11But there's no major difference.
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6:11 - 6:14There's no major difference between these religions.
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6:14 - 6:17There is a difference with income.
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6:17 - 6:22The countries which have many babies per woman here,
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6:22 - 6:22they have quite low income.
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6:22 - 6:26Most of them are in sub-Saharan Africa.
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6:26 - 6:29But there are also countries here
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6:29 - 6:33like Guatemala, like Papua New Guinea,
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6:33 - 6:36like Yemen and Afghanistan.
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6:36 - 6:42Many think that Afghanistan here and Congo, which have suffered severe conflicts,
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6:42 - 6:44that they don't have fast population growth.
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6:44 - 6:46It's the other way around.
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6:46 - 6:51In the world today, it's the countries that have the highest mortality rates
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6:51 - 6:54that have the fastest population growth.
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6:54 - 6:56Because the death of a child is compensated by one more child.
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6:56 - 7:00These countries have six children per woman.
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7:00 - 7:06They have a sad death rate of one to two children per woman.
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7:06 - 7:07But 30 years from now, Afghanistan will go from 30 million to 60 million.
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7:07 - 7:08Congo will go from 60 to 120.
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7:08 - 7:15That's where we have the fast population growth.
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7:15 - 7:19And many think that all these countries are stagnant, but they are not.
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7:19 - 7:22Let me compare Senegal, a Muslim dominated country,
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7:22 - 7:26with a Christian dominated country, Ghana.
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7:26 - 7:29I take them backwards here to their independence
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7:29 - 7:33when they were up here in the beginning of the 1960's.
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7:33 - 7:35Just look what they have done.
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7:35 - 7:38It's an amazing improvement,
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7:38 - 7:40from seven children per woman,
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7:40 - 7:42they've gone all the way down to between four and five.
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7:42 - 7:43It's a tremendous improvement.
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7:43 - 7:45So what does it take?
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7:45 - 7:48Well we know quite well what is needed in these countries.
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7:48 - 7:51You need to have children to survive.
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7:51 - 7:53You need to get out of the deepest poverty
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7:53 - 7:55so children are not of importance for work in the family.
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7:55 - 8:00You need to have access to some family planning.
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8:00 - 8:04And you need the fourth factor, which perhaps is the most important factor.
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8:04 - 8:07But let me illustrate that fourth factor
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8:07 - 8:08by looking at Qatar.
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8:08 - 8:13Here we have Qatar today, and there we have Bangladesh today.
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8:13 - 8:16If I take these countries back to the years of their independence,
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8:16 - 8:20which is almost the same year -- '71, '72 --
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8:20 - 8:23it's a quite amazing development which has happened.
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8:23 - 8:26Look at Bangladesh and Qatar.
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8:26 - 8:28With so different incomes, it's almost the same drop
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8:28 - 8:31in number of babies per woman.
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8:31 - 8:32And what is the reason in Qatar?
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8:32 - 8:35Well I do as I always do.
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8:35 - 8:37I went to the statistical authority of Qatar, to their webpage --
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8:37 - 8:38It's a very good webpage. I recommend it --
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8:38 - 8:44and I looked up -- oh yeah, you can have lots of fun here --
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8:44 - 8:51and provided free of charge, I found Qatar's social trends.
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8:51 - 8:53Very interesting. Lots to read.
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8:53 - 8:57I found fertility at birth, and I looked at total fertility rate per woman.
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8:57 - 9:00These are the scholars and experts in the government agency in Qatar.
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9:00 - 9:03And they say the most important factors are:
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9:03 - 9:06"Increased age at first marriage,
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9:06 - 9:07increased educational level of Qatari woman
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9:07 - 9:12and more women integrated in the labor force."
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9:12 - 9:17I couldn't agree more. Science couldn't agree more.
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9:17 - 9:17This is a country that indeed has gone through
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9:17 - 9:21a very, very interesting modernization.
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9:21 - 9:25So what it is is these four?
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9:25 - 9:28Children should survive, children shouldn't be needed for work,
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9:28 - 9:30women should get education and join the labor force
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9:30 - 9:33and family planning should be accessible.
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9:33 - 9:35Now look again at this.
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9:35 - 9:38The average number of children in the world
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9:38 - 9:42is like in Columbia -- it's 2.4 today.
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9:42 - 9:45There are countries up here which are very poor.
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9:45 - 9:48And that's where family planning, better child survival is needed.
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9:48 - 9:52I strongly recommend Melinda Gates last TEDTalk.
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9:52 - 9:58And here down there are many countries which are less than two children per woman.
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9:58 - 10:02So when I go back now to give you the answer of the quiz,
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10:02 - 10:03it's two.
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10:03 - 10:06We have reached peak child.
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10:06 - 10:08The number of children is not growing any longer in the world.
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10:08 - 10:09We are still debating peak oil,
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10:09 - 10:10but we have definitely reached peak child.
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10:10 - 10:16And the world population will stop growing.
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10:16 - 10:19The United Nations Population Division has said
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10:19 - 10:20it will stop growing at 10 billion.
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10:20 - 10:24But why do they grow if the number of children doesn't grow?
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10:24 - 10:27Well I will show you here.
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10:27 - 10:31I will use these card boxes in which your notebooks came.
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10:31 - 10:33They are quite useful for educational purposes.
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10:33 - 10:37Each card box is one billion people.
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10:37 - 10:41And there are two billion children in the world.
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10:41 - 10:47There are two billion young people between 15 and 30.
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10:47 - 10:48These are rounded numbers.
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10:48 - 10:53Then there is one billion between 30 and 45,
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10:53 - 10:58almost one between 45 and 60.
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10:58 - 11:00And then it's my box.
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11:00 - 11:01This is me -- 60-plus.
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11:01 - 11:02We are here on top.
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11:02 - 11:08So what will happen now is what we call the big fill-up.
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11:08 - 11:11You can see that it's like three billion missing here.
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11:11 - 11:15They are not missing because they've died; they were never born.
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11:15 - 11:20Because before 1980, there were much fewer people born
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11:20 - 11:22than there were during the last 30 years.
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11:22 - 11:26So what will happen now is quite straightforward.
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11:26 - 11:29The old, sadly, we will die,
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11:29 - 11:34the rest of you, you will grow older and you will get two billion children.
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11:34 - 11:35Then the old will die.
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11:35 - 11:39The rest will grow older and get two billion children.
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11:39 - 11:45And then again the old will die and you will get two billion children.
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11:45 - 11:46(Applause)
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11:46 - 11:51This is the great fill-up.
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11:51 - 11:52It's inevitable.
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11:52 - 11:57And can you see that this increase took place
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11:57 - 12:01without life getting longer and without adding children.
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12:01 - 12:06Religion has very little to do with the number of babies per woman.
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12:06 - 12:07All the religions in the world are fully capable
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12:07 - 12:14to maintain their values and adapt to this new world.
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12:14 - 12:20And we will be just 10 billion in this world,
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12:20 - 12:24if the poorest people get out of poverty,
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12:24 - 12:27their children survive, they get access to family planning.
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12:27 - 12:28That is needed.
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12:28 - 12:34But it's inevitable that we will be two to three billion more.
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12:34 - 12:38So when you discuss and when you plan
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12:38 - 12:43for the resources and the energy needed for the future,
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12:43 - 12:44for human beings on this planet,
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12:44 - 12:45you have to plan for 10 billion.
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12:45 - 12:48Thank you very much.
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12:48 - 12:55(Applause)
- Title:
- Religions and babies
- Speaker:
- Hans Rosling
- Description:
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Hans Rosling had a question: Do some religions have a higher birth rate than others -- and how does this affect global population growth? Speaking at the TEDxSummit in Doha, Qatar, he graphs data over time and across religions. With his trademark humor and sharp insight, Hans reaches a surprising conclusion on world fertility rates.
- Video Language:
- English
- Team:
- closed TED
- Project:
- TEDTalks
- Duration:
- 13:20
Jenny Zurawell edited English subtitles for Religions and babies | ||
Jenny Zurawell approved English subtitles for Religions and babies | ||
Jenny Zurawell edited English subtitles for Religions and babies | ||
Morton Bast accepted English subtitles for Religions and babies | ||
Morton Bast edited English subtitles for Religions and babies | ||
Timothy Covell added a translation |