The surprising workforce crisis of 2030 — and how to start solving it now
-
0:01 - 0:042014 is a very special year for me:
-
0:04 - 0:0620 years as a consultant,
-
0:06 - 0:0820 years of marriage,
-
0:08 - 0:11and I'm turning 50 in one month.
-
0:11 - 0:16That means I was born in 1964
in a small town in Germany. -
0:16 - 0:18It was a gray November day,
-
0:18 - 0:20and I was overdue.
-
0:20 - 0:24The hospital's maternity ward
was really stressed out -
0:24 - 0:28because a lot of babies were born
on this gray November day. -
0:28 - 0:30As a matter of fact,
-
0:30 - 0:351964 was the year with the highest
birth rate ever in Germany: -
0:35 - 0:37more than 1.3 million.
-
0:37 - 0:40Last year, we just hit over 600,000,
-
0:40 - 0:41so half of my number.
-
0:41 - 0:45What you can see here
is the German age pyramid, -
0:45 - 0:48and there, the small black point
at the top, that's me. -
0:48 - 0:52(Laughter) (Applause)
-
0:54 - 0:58In red, you can see the potential
working-age population, -
0:58 - 1:03so people over 15 and under 65,
-
1:03 - 1:06and I'm actually only interested
in this red area. -
1:06 - 1:08Now, let's do a simple simulation
-
1:08 - 1:13of how this age structure will develop
over the next couple of years. -
1:13 - 1:14As you can see,
-
1:14 - 1:17the peak is moving to the right,
-
1:17 - 1:23and I, with many other baby boomers,
will retire in 2030. -
1:23 - 1:26By the way, I don't need any forecasts
-
1:26 - 1:28of birth rates for predicting
this red area. -
1:28 - 1:30The red area,
-
1:30 - 1:33so the potential
working-age population in 2030, -
1:33 - 1:37is already set in stone today,
-
1:37 - 1:40except for much higher migration rates.
-
1:40 - 1:46And if you compare this red area in 2030
with the red area in 2014, -
1:46 - 1:49it is much, much smaller.
-
1:49 - 1:52So before I show you
the rest of the world, -
1:52 - 1:55what does this mean for Germany?
-
1:55 - 1:59So what we know from
this picture is that the labor supply, -
1:59 - 2:01so people who provide labor,
-
2:01 - 2:05will go down in Germany,
and will go down significantly. -
2:05 - 2:07Now, what about labor demand?
-
2:07 - 2:09That's where it gets tricky.
-
2:10 - 2:15As you might know, the consultant's
favorite answer to any question is, -
2:15 - 2:17"It depends."
-
2:17 - 2:19So I would say it depends.
-
2:19 - 2:21We didn't want to forecast the future.
-
2:21 - 2:23Highly speculative.
-
2:23 - 2:25We did something else.
-
2:25 - 2:28We looked at the GDP
and productivity growth of Germany -
2:28 - 2:30over the last 20 years,
-
2:30 - 2:32and calculated the following scenario:
-
2:32 - 2:37if Germany wants to continue
this GDP and productivity growth, -
2:37 - 2:39we could directly calculate
-
2:39 - 2:43how many people Germany would need
to support this growth. -
2:43 - 2:46And this is the green line: labor demand.
-
2:46 - 2:51So Germany will run into
a major talent shortage very quickly. -
2:51 - 2:53Eight million people are missing,
-
2:53 - 2:56which is more than 20 percent
of our current workforce, -
2:56 - 2:59so big numbers, really big numbers.
-
2:59 - 3:01And we calculated several scenarios,
-
3:01 - 3:03and the picture always looked like this.
-
3:05 - 3:06Now, to close the gap,
-
3:06 - 3:11Germany has to significantly
increase migration, -
3:11 - 3:13get many more women in the workforce,
-
3:13 - 3:14increase retirement age —
-
3:14 - 3:17by the way, we just
lowered it this year — -
3:17 - 3:20and all these measures at once.
-
3:20 - 3:24If Germany fails here,
Germany will stagnate. -
3:24 - 3:26We won't grow anymore. Why?
-
3:26 - 3:29Because the workers are not there
who can generate this growth. -
3:29 - 3:34And companies will look
for talents somewhere else. -
3:34 - 3:35But where?
-
3:37 - 3:41Now, we simulated labor supply
and labor demand -
3:41 - 3:44for the largest 15 economies in the world,
-
3:44 - 3:48representing more than 70 percent
of world GDP, -
3:48 - 3:52and the overall picture
looks like this by 2020. -
3:52 - 3:54Blue indicates a labor surplus,
-
3:54 - 3:57red indicates a labor shortfall,
-
3:57 - 4:00and gray are those countries
which are borderline. -
4:00 - 4:07So by 2020, we still see a labor surplus
in some countries, -
4:07 - 4:09like Italy, France, the U.S.,
-
4:09 - 4:13but this picture will change
dramatically by 2030. -
4:13 - 4:18By 2030, we will face
a global workforce crisis -
4:18 - 4:21in most of our largest economies,
-
4:21 - 4:23including three
out of the four BRIC countries. -
4:23 - 4:27China, with its former
one-child policy, will be hit, -
4:27 - 4:30as well as Brazil and Russia.
-
4:30 - 4:34Now, to tell the truth,
-
4:34 - 4:39in reality, the situation
will be even more challenging. -
4:39 - 4:42What you can see here are average numbers.
-
4:42 - 4:44We de-averaged them
-
4:44 - 4:47and broke them down
into different skill levels, -
4:47 - 4:48and what we found
-
4:48 - 4:52were even higher shortfalls
for high-skilled people -
4:52 - 4:56and a partial surplus
for low-skilled workers. -
4:56 - 4:59So on top of an overall labor shortage,
-
4:59 - 5:03we will face a big
skill mismatch in the future, -
5:03 - 5:05and this means huge challenges
-
5:05 - 5:07in terms of education, qualification,
-
5:07 - 5:10upskilling for governments and companies.
-
5:12 - 5:18Now, the next thing we looked into
was robots, automation, technology. -
5:18 - 5:22Will technology change this picture
and boost productivity? -
5:24 - 5:26Now, the short answer would be
-
5:26 - 5:30that our numbers already include
a significant growth in productivity -
5:30 - 5:32driven by technology.
-
5:33 - 5:37A long answer would go like this.
-
5:37 - 5:39Let's take Germany again.
-
5:39 - 5:42The Germans have
a certain reputation in the world -
5:42 - 5:44when it comes to productivity.
-
5:44 - 5:49In the '90s, I worked in our Boston office
for almost two years, -
5:49 - 5:53and when I left, an old senior partner
told me, literally, -
5:53 - 5:56"Send me more of these Germans,
they work like machines." -
5:56 - 6:01(Laughter)
-
6:01 - 6:04That was 1998.
-
6:04 - 6:08Sixteen years later,
you'd probably say the opposite. -
6:08 - 6:11"Send me more of these machines.
They work like Germans." -
6:11 - 6:16(Laughter) (Applause)
-
6:18 - 6:23Technology will replace
a lot of jobs, regular jobs. -
6:23 - 6:25Not only in the production industry,
-
6:25 - 6:27but even office workers are in jeopardy
-
6:27 - 6:30and might be replaced by robots,
-
6:30 - 6:32artificial intelligence,
big data, or automation. -
6:33 - 6:38So the key question is not
if technology replaces some of these jobs, -
6:38 - 6:42but when, how fast, and to what extent?
-
6:42 - 6:43Or in other words,
-
6:43 - 6:48will technology help us
to solve this global workforce crisis? -
6:49 - 6:51Yes and no.
-
6:51 - 6:54This is a more sophisticated
version of "it depends." -
6:54 - 6:55(Laughter)
-
6:55 - 7:00Let's take the automotive industry
as an example, -
7:00 - 7:05because there, more than 40 percent
of industrial robots are already working -
7:05 - 7:08and automation has already taken place.
-
7:09 - 7:15In 1980, less than 10 percent
of the production cost of a car -
7:15 - 7:17was caused by electronic parts.
-
7:17 - 7:21Today, this number is more than 30 percent
-
7:21 - 7:25and it will grow
to more than 50 percent by 2030. -
7:25 - 7:30And these new electronic parts
and applications -
7:30 - 7:34require new skills
and have created a lot of new jobs, -
7:34 - 7:36like the cognitive systems engineer
-
7:36 - 7:41who optimizes the interaction
between driver and electronic system. -
7:42 - 7:49In 1980, no one had the slightest clue
that such a job would ever exist. -
7:50 - 7:51As a matter of fact,
-
7:51 - 7:55the overall number of people
involved in the production of a car -
7:55 - 7:59has only changed slightly
in the last decades, -
7:59 - 8:02in spite of robots and automation.
-
8:02 - 8:03So what does this mean?
-
8:03 - 8:06Yes, technology
will replace a lot of jobs, -
8:06 - 8:12but we will also see a lot of new jobs
and new skills on the horizon, -
8:12 - 8:18and that means technology will worsen
our overall skill mismatch. -
8:18 - 8:20And this kind of de-averaging
-
8:20 - 8:23reveals the crucial challenge
for governments and businesses. -
8:25 - 8:29So people, high-skilled people,
-
8:29 - 8:33talents, will be the big thing
in the next decade. -
8:33 - 8:39If they are the scarce resource,
we have to understand them much better. -
8:39 - 8:42Are they actually willing to work abroad?
-
8:42 - 8:43What are their job preferences?
-
8:45 - 8:50To find out, this year we conducted
a global survey -
8:50 - 8:55among more than 200,000 job seekers
from 189 countries. -
8:56 - 9:01Migration is certainly
one key measure to close a gap, -
9:01 - 9:03at least in the short term,
-
9:03 - 9:06so we asked about mobility.
-
9:06 - 9:10More than 60 percent
of these 200,000 job seekers -
9:10 - 9:13are willing to work abroad.
-
9:13 - 9:15For me, a surprisingly high number.
-
9:15 - 9:18If you look at the employees
aged 21 to 30, -
9:18 - 9:21this number is even higher.
-
9:21 - 9:24If you split this number up by country,
-
9:24 - 9:29yes, the world is mobile, but only partly.
-
9:29 - 9:33The least mobile countries
are Russia, Germany and the U.S. -
9:34 - 9:38Now where would these people like to move?
-
9:38 - 9:42Number seven is Australia,
where 28 percent could imagine moving. -
9:42 - 9:47Then France, Switzerland,
Germany, Canada, U.K., -
9:47 - 9:50and the top choice
worldwide is the U.S. -
9:51 - 9:54Now, what are the job preferences
of these 200,000 people? -
9:54 - 9:56So, what are they looking for?
-
9:57 - 10:03Out of a list of 26 topics,
salary is only number eight. -
10:03 - 10:08The top four topics
are all around culture. -
10:08 - 10:10Number four,
-
10:10 - 10:13having a great relationship with the boss;
-
10:13 - 10:17three, enjoying a great work-life balance;
-
10:17 - 10:20two, having a great relationship
with colleagues; -
10:20 - 10:24and the top priority worldwide
-
10:24 - 10:27is being appreciated for your work.
-
10:28 - 10:31So, do I get a thank you?
-
10:31 - 10:34Not only once a year
with the annual bonus payment, -
10:34 - 10:37but every day.
-
10:37 - 10:42And now, our global workforce crisis
becomes very personal. -
10:42 - 10:45People are looking for recognition.
-
10:45 - 10:48Aren't we all looking
for recognition in our jobs? -
10:51 - 10:55Now, let me connect the dots.
-
10:55 - 10:57We will face a global workforce crisis
-
10:57 - 11:00which consists
of an overall labor shortage -
11:00 - 11:02plus a huge skill mismatch,
-
11:02 - 11:05plus a big cultural challenge.
-
11:05 - 11:09And this global workforce crisis
is approaching very fast. -
11:09 - 11:12Right now, we are
just at the turning point. -
11:12 - 11:16So what can we, what can governments,
what can companies do? -
11:16 - 11:18Every company,
-
11:18 - 11:20but also every country,
-
11:20 - 11:22needs a people strategy,
-
11:22 - 11:25and to act on it immediately,
-
11:25 - 11:29and such a people strategy
consists of four parts. -
11:29 - 11:30Number one, a plan
-
11:30 - 11:37for how to forecast supply and demand
for different jobs and different skills. -
11:37 - 11:41Workforce planning will become
more important than financial planning. -
11:42 - 11:46Two, a plan for
how to attract great people: -
11:46 - 11:49generation Y, women, but also retirees.
-
11:50 - 11:54Three, a plan for how to educate
and upskill them. -
11:54 - 11:56There's a huge
upskilling challenge ahead of us. -
11:58 - 12:00And four,
-
12:00 - 12:02for how to retain the best people,
-
12:02 - 12:03or in other words,
-
12:03 - 12:08how to realize an appreciation
and relationship culture. -
12:12 - 12:18However, one crucial underlying factor
is to change our attitudes. -
12:18 - 12:23Employees are resources, are assets,
-
12:23 - 12:25not costs, not head counts,
-
12:25 - 12:26not machines,
-
12:27 - 12:28not even the Germans.
-
12:28 - 12:29Thank you.
-
12:29 - 12:33(Applause)
- Title:
- The surprising workforce crisis of 2030 — and how to start solving it now
- Speaker:
- Rainer Strack
- Description:
-
It sounds counterintuitive, but by 2030, many of the world's largest economies will have more jobs than adult citizens to do those jobs. In this data-filled — and quite charming — talk, human resources expert Rainer Strack suggests that countries ought to look across borders for mobile and willing job seekers. But to do that, they need to start by changing the culture in their businesses.
- Video Language:
- English
- Team:
- closed TED
- Project:
- TEDTalks
- Duration:
- 12:47
Morton Bast edited English subtitles for The workforce crisis of 2030 -- and how to start solving it now | ||
Morton Bast edited English subtitles for The workforce crisis of 2030 -- and how to start solving it now | ||
Morton Bast edited English subtitles for The workforce crisis of 2030 -- and how to start solving it now | ||
Morton Bast edited English subtitles for The workforce crisis of 2030 -- and how to start solving it now | ||
Morton Bast approved English subtitles for The workforce crisis of 2030 -- and how to start solving it now | ||
Krystian Aparta edited English subtitles for The workforce crisis of 2030 -- and how to start solving it now | ||
Krystian Aparta edited English subtitles for The workforce crisis of 2030 -- and how to start solving it now | ||
Krystian Aparta accepted English subtitles for The workforce crisis of 2030 -- and how to start solving it now |