MOOC Terrorism and Counterterrorism - Office Chat - February 2017

[MOOC Terrorism and Counterterrorism
Comparing Theory & Practice]

[Office Chat - Professor Edwin Bakker
February 2017]

Hi there!

Welcome to the office chat
of February 2017.

What has happened
in the last couple of weeks?

Well, there are four issues
I would like to briefly discuss with you.

The first is the situation in Pakistan.

We've seen a number
of very deadly attacks,

one on a shrine, a Sufi shrine
in the South of the country

that killed 90 people.

A very deadly attack: we know Pakistan
is very high on the list of countries

that are facing a lot of terrorism,

but it seems that with these attacks
that there's a new wave

or an escalation of violence.

There are all kinds of extremist groups
sometimes related to Pakistan

that seem to step up their efforts
to attack the government of Pakistan

its judiciary, its police force
and its army.

and we see also a very quick reaction
by the armed forces, and

here's a quote by the chief of the army
who responded to the latest attacks

by saying: "Each drop
of the nation's blood shall be avenged

and avenged immediately."

And so they did: the security services
have killed -- have closed the borders

or some of the border crossings
with Afghanistan --

and killed and arrested
dozens of militants.

And of course everybody's worried that
it will lead to a new escalation,

a new cycle of violence,

or hopefully will lead to more peace and
security for the Pakistani people

We have to see.

Then the second issue,
something completely different

there are a lot of security summits and
one of the most important annual summit

is the one in the city of Munich and a
lot of politicians come there

to talk about security:
the Vice-President,

the new Vice-President
of the United States, for instance,

but also not -- also people that are from
the world of business and NGOs:

one of them, Bill Gates
the founder of Microsoft

and he said something interesting also.

If we look at waves of terrorism and
we ask in the --

I think it's the second week, "what is
perhaps a new wave of terrorism?"

Well, Bill Gates gives us some ideas.

He says that, during this summit he says
that the next epidemic could originate

on the computer screen of a terrorist.

of a terrorist with terroristic intent
using genetic engineering to create

a synthetic version of the smallpox virus

or a super contagious and deadly strain
of 'flu.

And he's worried about bioterrorism.

Is that a new, the new wave of terrorism
with the new modus operandi?

it's interesting to hear Bill Gates
discussing this.

Of course it's not new,
what we call CBRN terrorisms,

Chemical Biological Radiological
and Nuclear terrorism is not new,

but threat assessments seem
to differ over time.

There are more and more people who think
that it's more likely.

Even the knowledge that is available,

some of the ingredients and
the materials that are available,

but still in general it's seen
as a low-probability

but high- or extremely high-impact threat.

So the chance it will happen is small
but the impact might be enormous.

But it's very good to reassess
this threat.

Are there changes today --
maybe if you look at the Islamic State --

that they have access to
certain chemical products

they had access for instance
to Mosul University,

and there are some rumors,
there is some indication

that they try to test
new chemical weapons.

Will they use it?

it's difficult to say and it's also
difficult to build this kind of weapons

in a war situation but it's something
to be worried about:

politicians are worried about it but
Bill Gates also expressed his concern

about bioterrorism.

Well, it brings me to the situation
in Syria and Iraq,

war-torn area, region.

IS is losing ground in many parts
of that region in the North-West,

and near Aleppo there is a city
called Al-Bab:

it was about to fall already last month

but they are still are keeping that a town
under IS control

it's been attacked by Turks
and allies of the opposition

but also the Syrian Arab army.

Interesting to see what will happen,
especially after the city will fall.

Will these parties then start to fight
or not?

Very surprising, last couple of days,

a Kurdish coalition supported by the US
and others are now at the outskirts of Raka,

the self-proclaimed or the capital
to self-proclaimed Caliphate,

and have cut off supply lines
between Raka and Iraq.

For instance the city of Mosul,
well that city, partly liberated ,

the Eastern part but now the Western part

is under attack by the Iraqi forces
and its allies. various militias,

and they seem to be closing in, so
they are near the borders of the town,

but not in the western part yet.

and people expect a long struggle

because IS has been waiting for this
attack for a long time,

digging tunnels, all kinds of defensive systems,
using a lot of suicide attacks

so that they're closing in
but IS is not defeated yet

but they're losing ground.

That brings me to the last point:

a recent report by the Dutch Intelligence
and Security Service.

It's called Focus on Returnees

and it's a report that's a very short
brief or paper

that will inform the public about the
threat posed by returnees.

And the main point of this report is that
those that return

in the coming months and years --
they don't expect immediately

a lot of them of them to return,
even though IS is losing grounf,

but they expect in the long run
more people to return

and they are more potentially dangerous
than those that returned in the past,

partly because they have been
around in the war zone longer,

maybe more radicalized but definitely
battle-hardened, with more skills to fight

and most of them have a link to
extremist groups, terrorist groups

like the Islamic State.

A majority of the Dutch that are still
out there have joined Islamic State,

so they expect those that return to be
potentially more dangerous

than people that returned in the past.

if you're interested in this report,
it gives you a good idea

how the Dutch authorities
look at this threat.

Have a look at their website, so
www.aivd.nl

but we'll also upload it
on the Coursera dashboard

That's it for now, see you next month.