Why do we make irrational decisions? - Sara Garofalo
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0:07 - 0:09Let's say you're on a game show.
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0:09 - 0:12You've already earned $1000
in the first round -
0:12 - 0:15when you land on the bonus space.
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0:15 - 0:17Now, you have a choice.
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0:17 - 0:20You can either take
a $500 bonus guaranteed -
0:20 - 0:23or you can flip a coin.
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0:23 - 0:26If it's heads, you win $1000 bonus.
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0:26 - 0:29If it's tails, you get no bonus at all.
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0:29 - 0:34In the second round, you've earned $2000
when you land on the penalty space. -
0:34 - 0:36Now you have another choice.
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0:36 - 0:39You can either take a $500 loss,
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0:39 - 0:42or try your luck at the coin flip.
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0:42 - 0:44If it's heads, you lose nothing,
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0:44 - 0:49but if it's tails, you lose $1000 instead.
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0:49 - 0:50If you're like most people,
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0:50 - 0:54you probably chose to take
the guaranteed bonus in the first round -
0:54 - 0:57and flip the coin in the second round.
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0:57 - 1:00But if you think about it,
this makes no sense. -
1:00 - 1:04The odds and outcomes in both rounds
are exactly the same. -
1:04 - 1:09So why does the second round
seem much scarier? -
1:09 - 1:13The answer lies in a phenomenon
known as loss aversion. -
1:13 - 1:15Under rational economic theory,
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1:15 - 1:19our decisions should follow a simple
mathematical equation -
1:19 - 1:23that weighs the level of risk
against the amount at stake. -
1:23 - 1:25But studies have found
that for many people, -
1:25 - 1:29the negative psychological impact
we feel from losing something -
1:29 - 1:35is about twice as strong as the positive
impact of gaining the same thing. -
1:35 - 1:40Loss aversion is one cognitive bias
that arises from heuristics, -
1:40 - 1:44problem-solving approaches based on
previous experience and intuition -
1:44 - 1:47rather than careful analysis.
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1:47 - 1:50And these mental shortcuts can lead
to irrational decisions, -
1:50 - 1:51not like falling in love
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1:51 - 1:53or bungee jumping off a cliff,
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1:53 - 1:58but logical fallacies that can easily
be proven wrong. -
1:58 - 2:04Situations involving probability are
notoriously bad for applying heuristics. -
2:04 - 2:09For instance, say you were to roll a die
with four green faces and two red faces -
2:09 - 2:11twenty times.
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2:11 - 2:14You can choose one of
the following sequences of rolls, -
2:14 - 2:17and if it shows up,
you'll win $25. -
2:17 - 2:19Which would you pick?
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2:19 - 2:24In one study, 65% of the participants
who were all college students -
2:24 - 2:26chose sequence B
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2:26 - 2:30even though A is shorter
and contained within B, -
2:30 - 2:32in other words, more likely.
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2:32 - 2:35This is what's called
a conjunction fallacy. -
2:35 - 2:37Here, we expect to see more green rolls,
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2:37 - 2:42so our brains can trick us into picking
the less likely option. -
2:42 - 2:46Heuristics are also terrible
at dealing with numbers in general. -
2:46 - 2:49In one example, students were split
into two groups. -
2:49 - 2:55The first group was asked whether
Mahatma Gandhi died before or after age 9, -
2:55 - 3:00while the second was asked whether
he died before or after age 140. -
3:00 - 3:03Both numbers were obviously way off,
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3:03 - 3:07but when the students were then asked
to guess the actual age at which he died, -
3:07 - 3:10the first group's answers averaged to 50
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3:10 - 3:14while the second group's averaged to 67.
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3:14 - 3:17Even though the clearly wrong information
in the initial questions -
3:17 - 3:19should have been irrelevant,
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3:19 - 3:22it still affected the students' estimates.
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3:22 - 3:25This is an example
of the anchoring effect, -
3:25 - 3:28and it's often used in marketing
and negotiations -
3:28 - 3:31to raise the prices
that people are willing to pay. -
3:31 - 3:35So, if heuristics lead to
all these wrong decisions, -
3:35 - 3:37why do we even have them?
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3:37 - 3:40Well, because they can be quite effective.
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3:40 - 3:41For most of human history,
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3:41 - 3:46survival depended on making quick
decisions with limited information. -
3:46 - 3:50When there's no time to logically
analyze all the possibilities, -
3:50 - 3:53heuristics can sometimes save our lives.
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3:53 - 3:57But today's environment requires
far more complex decision-making, -
3:57 - 4:01and these decisions are more biased
by unconscious factors than we think, -
4:01 - 4:04affecting everything from health
and education -
4:04 - 4:06to finance and criminal justice.
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4:06 - 4:08We can't just shut off
our brain's heuristics, -
4:08 - 4:11but we can learn to be aware of them.
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4:11 - 4:14When you come to
a situation involving numbers, -
4:14 - 4:15probability,
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4:15 - 4:17or multiple details,
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4:17 - 4:18pause for a second
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4:18 - 4:23and consider that the intuitive answer
might not be the right one after all.
- Title:
- Why do we make irrational decisions? - Sara Garofalo
- Speaker:
- Sara Garofalo
- Description:
-
View full lesson: http://ed.ted.com/lessons/the-psychology-behind-irrational-decisions-sara-garofalo
Often people make decisions that are not “rational” from a purely economical point of view — meaning that they don’t necessarily lead to the best result. Why is that? Are we just bad at dealing with numbers and odds? Or is there a psychological mechanism behind it? Sara Garofalo explains heuristics, problem-solving approaches based on previous experience and intuition rather than analysis.
Lesson by Sara Garofalo, animation by TOGETHER.
- Video Language:
- English
- Team:
- closed TED
- Project:
- TED-Ed
- Duration:
- 04:39
Jessica Ruby edited English subtitles for The psychology behind irrational decisions | ||
Jessica Ruby approved English subtitles for The psychology behind irrational decisions | ||
Jessica Ruby edited English subtitles for The psychology behind irrational decisions | ||
Jessica Ruby accepted English subtitles for The psychology behind irrational decisions | ||
Jessica Ruby edited English subtitles for The psychology behind irrational decisions | ||
Jessica Ruby edited English subtitles for The psychology behind irrational decisions | ||
Jennifer Cody edited English subtitles for The psychology behind irrational decisions | ||
Jennifer Cody edited English subtitles for The psychology behind irrational decisions |