How fear of nuclear power is hurting the environment
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0:01 - 0:02Have you heard the news?
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0:02 - 0:05We're in a clean energy revolution.
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0:05 - 0:07And where I live in Berkeley, California,
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0:07 - 0:12it seems like every day I see a new roof
with new solar panels going up, -
0:12 - 0:14electric car in the driveway.
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0:14 - 0:17Germany sometimes gets
half its power from solar, -
0:17 - 0:22and India is now committed
to building 10 times more solar -
0:22 - 0:23than we have in California,
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0:23 - 0:24by the year 2022.
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0:25 - 0:27Even nuclear seems to be
making a comeback. -
0:28 - 0:31Bill Gates is in China
working with engineers, -
0:31 - 0:34there's 40 different companies
that are working together -
0:34 - 0:37to try to race to build the first
reactor that runs on waste, -
0:37 - 0:38that can't melt down
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0:38 - 0:40and is cheaper than coal.
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0:40 - 0:43And so you might start to ask:
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0:43 - 0:45Is this whole global warming problem
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0:45 - 0:48going to be a lot easier to solve
than anybody imagined? -
0:49 - 0:50That was the question we wanted to know,
-
0:50 - 0:54so my colleagues and I decided
to take a deep dive into the data. -
0:54 - 0:56We were a little skeptical of some parts
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0:56 - 0:58of the clean energy revolution story,
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0:58 - 1:01but what we found really surprised us.
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1:01 - 1:05The first thing is that clean
energy has been increasing. -
1:05 - 1:09This is electricity from clean energy
sources over the last 20 years. -
1:09 - 1:13But when you look at
the percentage of global electricity -
1:13 - 1:14from clean energy sources,
-
1:14 - 1:19it's actually been in decline
from 36 percent to 31 percent. -
1:19 - 1:21And if you care about climate change,
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1:21 - 1:23you've got to go in the opposite direction
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1:23 - 1:27to 100 percent of our electricity
from clean energy sources, -
1:27 - 1:28as quickly as possible.
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1:28 - 1:29Now, you might wonder,
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1:29 - 1:33"Come on, how much could five percentage
points of global electricity be?" -
1:33 - 1:35Well, it turns out to be quite a bit.
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1:35 - 1:38It's the equivalent of 60 nuclear plants
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1:38 - 1:42the size of Diablo Canyon,
California's last nuclear plant, -
1:42 - 1:46or 900 solar farms the size of Topaz,
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1:46 - 1:48which is one of the biggest
solar farms in the world, -
1:48 - 1:51and certainly our biggest in California.
-
1:52 - 1:55A big part of this is simply
that fossil fuels are increasing -
1:55 - 1:56faster than clean energy.
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1:56 - 1:57And that's understandable.
-
1:57 - 1:59There's just a lot of poor countries
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1:59 - 2:02that are still using wood
and dung and charcoal -
2:02 - 2:03as their main source of energy,
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2:03 - 2:05and they need modern fuels.
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2:05 - 2:07But there's something else going on,
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2:07 - 2:11which is that one of those clean energy
sources in particular -
2:11 - 2:14has actually been on the decline
in absolute terms, -
2:14 - 2:16not just relatively.
-
2:16 - 2:17And that's nuclear.
-
2:17 - 2:21You can see its generation
has declined seven percent -
2:21 - 2:22over the last 10 years.
-
2:22 - 2:25Now, solar and wind have been
making huge strides, -
2:25 - 2:28so you hear a lot of talk
about how it doesn't really matter, -
2:28 - 2:31because solar and wind
is going to make up the difference. -
2:31 - 2:33But the data says something different.
-
2:33 - 2:36When you combine all the electricity
from solar and wind, -
2:36 - 2:41you see it actually barely makes up
half of the decline from nuclear. -
2:42 - 2:44Let's take a closer look
in the United States. -
2:44 - 2:48Over the last couple of years --
really 2013, 2014 -- -
2:48 - 2:51we prematurely retired
four nuclear power plants. -
2:51 - 2:54They were almost entirely
replaced with fossil fuels, -
2:54 - 2:58and so the consequence
was that we wiped out -
2:58 - 3:03almost as much clean energy
electricity that we get from solar. -
3:03 - 3:06And it's not unique to us.
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3:06 - 3:09People think of California
as a clean energy and climate leader, -
3:09 - 3:11but when we looked at the data,
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3:11 - 3:13what we found is that, in fact,
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3:13 - 3:16California reduced emissions more slowly
than the national average, -
3:16 - 3:18between 2000 and 2015.
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3:18 - 3:20What about Germany?
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3:20 - 3:22They're doing a lot of clean energy.
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3:22 - 3:23But when you look at the data,
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3:23 - 3:27German emissions have actually
been going up since 2009, -
3:27 - 3:29and there's really not anybody
who's going to tell you -
3:29 - 3:33that they're going to meet
their climate commitments in 2020. -
3:33 - 3:35The reason isn't hard to understand.
-
3:35 - 3:38Solar and wind provide power
about 10 to 20 percent of the time, -
3:38 - 3:40which means that when
the sun's not shining, -
3:40 - 3:42the wind's not blowing,
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3:42 - 3:44you still need power for your hospitals,
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3:44 - 3:47your homes, your cities, your factories.
-
3:47 - 3:51And while batteries have made
some really cool improvements lately, -
3:51 - 3:53the truth is, they're just never
going to be as efficient -
3:53 - 3:54as the electrical grid.
-
3:54 - 3:58Every time you put electricity
into a battery and take it out, -
3:58 - 4:01you lose about 20 to 40
percent of the power. -
4:01 - 4:04That's why when, in California,
-
4:04 - 4:07we try to deal with all the solar
we've brought online -- -
4:07 - 4:10we now get about 10 percent
of electricity from solar -- -
4:10 - 4:12when the sun goes down,
and people come home from work -
4:12 - 4:15and turn on their air conditioners
and their TV sets, -
4:15 - 4:17and every other appliance in the house,
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4:17 - 4:19we need a lot of natural gas backup.
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4:19 - 4:20So what we've been doing
-
4:20 - 4:23is stuffing a lot of natural gas
into the side of a mountain. -
4:24 - 4:26And that worked pretty well for a while,
-
4:26 - 4:29but then late last year,
it sprung a leak. -
4:29 - 4:31This is Aliso Canyon.
-
4:31 - 4:34So much methane gas was released,
-
4:34 - 4:37it was the equivalent of putting
half a million cars on the road. -
4:37 - 4:41It basically blew through all
of our climate commitments for the year. -
4:42 - 4:43Well, what about India?
-
4:43 - 4:46Sometimes you have to go places
to really get the right data, -
4:46 - 4:48so we traveled to India a few months ago.
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4:48 - 4:51We met with all the top officials --
solar, nuclear, the rest -- -
4:51 - 4:53and what they told us is,
-
4:53 - 4:55"We're actually having
more serious problems -
4:55 - 4:57than both Germany and California.
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4:57 - 5:00We don't have backup;
we don't have all the natural gas. -
5:00 - 5:03And that's just the start of it.
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5:03 - 5:06Say we want to get
to 100 gigawatts by 2022. -
5:06 - 5:08But last year we did just five,
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5:08 - 5:10and the year before that, we did five."
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5:10 - 5:13So, let's just take
a closer look at nuclear. -
5:13 - 5:16The United Nations Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change -
5:16 - 5:19has looked at the carbon content
of all these different fuels, -
5:19 - 5:23and nuclear comes out really low --
it's actually lower even than solar. -
5:23 - 5:27And nuclear obviously
provides a lot of power -- -
5:27 - 5:2924 hours a day, seven days a week.
-
5:29 - 5:33During a year, a single plant can provide
power 92 percent of the time. -
5:33 - 5:36What's interesting is that
when you look at countries -
5:36 - 5:39that have deployed different
kinds of clean energies, -
5:39 - 5:40there's only a few that have done so
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5:41 - 5:43at a pace consistent with dealing
with the climate crisis. -
5:43 - 5:45So nuclear seems like
a pretty good option, -
5:45 - 5:48but there's this big problem with it,
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5:48 - 5:50which all of you, I'm sure, are aware of,
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5:50 - 5:52which is that people really don't like it.
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5:52 - 5:56There was a study, a survey done
of people around the world, -
5:56 - 5:58not just in the United States or Europe,
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5:58 - 6:00about a year and a half ago.
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6:00 - 6:01And what they found
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6:01 - 6:05is that nuclear is actually one
of the least popular forms of energy. -
6:05 - 6:07Even oil is more popular than nuclear.
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6:07 - 6:11And while nuclear kind of
edges out coal, the thing is, -
6:11 - 6:14people don't really fear coal
in the same way they fear nuclear, -
6:14 - 6:17which really operates on our unconscious.
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6:17 - 6:18So what is it that we fear?
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6:18 - 6:20There's really three things.
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6:20 - 6:22There's the safety
of the plants themselves -- -
6:22 - 6:25the fears that they're going
to melt down and cause damage; -
6:25 - 6:26there's the waste from them;
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6:27 - 6:29and there's the association with weapons.
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6:30 - 6:31And I think, understandably,
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6:31 - 6:35engineers look at those concerns
and look for technological fixes. -
6:35 - 6:38That's why Bill Gates is in China
developing advanced reactors. -
6:38 - 6:41That's why 40 different entrepreneurs
are working on this problem. -
6:41 - 6:43And I, myself, have been
very excited about it. -
6:43 - 6:46We did a report:
"How to Make Nuclear Cheap." -
6:46 - 6:49In particular, the thorium reactor
shows a lot of promise. -
6:49 - 6:51So when the climate
scientist, James Hansen, -
6:51 - 6:53asked if I wanted to go to China with him
-
6:53 - 6:55and look at the Chinese
advanced nuclear program, -
6:55 - 6:57I jumped at the chance.
-
6:57 - 7:00We were there with MIT
and UC Berkeley engineers. -
7:00 - 7:02And I had in my mind
-
7:02 - 7:04that the Chinese would be able
to do with nuclear -
7:04 - 7:06what they did with so many other things --
-
7:06 - 7:10start to crank out small nuclear
reactors on assembly lines, -
7:10 - 7:14ship them up like iPhones or MacBooks
and send them around the world. -
7:14 - 7:16I would get one at home in Berkeley.
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7:17 - 7:19But what I found was somewhat different.
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7:19 - 7:22The presentations were all
very exciting and very promising; -
7:22 - 7:25they have multiple reactors
that they're working on. -
7:25 - 7:28The time came for the thorium reactor,
and a bunch of us were excited. -
7:28 - 7:31They went through the whole presentation,
they got to the timeline, -
7:31 - 7:33and they said,
-
7:33 - 7:36"We're going to have
a thorium molten salt reactor -
7:36 - 7:38ready for sale to the world
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7:38 - 7:40by 2040."
-
7:41 - 7:42And I was like, "What?"
-
7:42 - 7:44(Laughter)
-
7:44 - 7:46I looked at my colleagues and I was like,
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7:46 - 7:47"Excuse me --
-
7:47 - 7:49can you guys speed that up a little bit?
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7:49 - 7:52Because we're in a little bit
of a climate crisis right now. -
7:53 - 7:55And your cities are really
polluted, by the way." -
7:55 - 7:58And they responded back, they were like,
-
7:58 - 8:00"I'm not sure what you've heard
about our thorium program, -
8:00 - 8:02but we don't have a third of our budget,
-
8:02 - 8:05and your department of energy
hasn't been particularly forthcoming -
8:05 - 8:09with all that data you guys
have on testing reactors." -
8:09 - 8:12And I said, "Well, I've got an idea.
-
8:12 - 8:15You know how you've got 10 years
where you're demonstrating that reactor? -
8:15 - 8:17Let's just skip that part,
-
8:17 - 8:19and let's just go right
to commercializing it. -
8:19 - 8:21That will save money and time."
-
8:21 - 8:24And the engineer just
looked at me and said, -
8:24 - 8:26"Let me ask you a question:
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8:26 - 8:29Would you buy a car that had never
been demonstrated before?" -
8:30 - 8:32So what about the other reactors?
-
8:32 - 8:35There's a reactor that's coming online
now, they're starting to sell it. -
8:35 - 8:37It's a high-temperature gas reactor.
-
8:37 - 8:38It can't melt down.
-
8:39 - 8:42But it's really big and bulky,
that's part of the safety, -
8:42 - 8:44and nobody thinks
it's going to ever get cheaper -
8:44 - 8:46than the reactors that we have.
-
8:46 - 8:50The ones that use waste as fuel
are really cool ideas, but the truth is, -
8:50 - 8:52we don't actually know how to do that yet.
-
8:52 - 8:55There's some risk that you'll
actually make more waste, -
8:55 - 8:57and most people think
that if you're including -
8:57 - 9:00that waste part of the process,
-
9:00 - 9:03it's just going to make the whole
machine a lot more expensive, -
9:03 - 9:05it's just adding another complicated step.
-
9:06 - 9:07The truth is,
-
9:08 - 9:11there's real questions about how much
of that we're going to do. -
9:11 - 9:14I mean, we went to India and asked
about the nuclear program. -
9:14 - 9:16The government said
before the Paris climate talks -
9:16 - 9:19that they were going to do something
like 30 new nuclear plants. -
9:19 - 9:21But when we got there
and interviewed people -
9:21 - 9:23and even looked at the internal documents,
-
9:23 - 9:26they're now saying
they're going to do about five. -
9:26 - 9:29And in most of the world,
especially the rich world, -
9:29 - 9:31they're not talking
about building new reactors. -
9:31 - 9:33We're actually talking
about taking reactors down -
9:33 - 9:35before their lifetimes are over.
-
9:35 - 9:38Germany's actually pressuring
its neighbors to do that. -
9:38 - 9:39I mentioned the United States --
-
9:39 - 9:44we could lose half of our reactors
over the next 15 years, -
9:44 - 9:47which would wipe out 40 percent
of the emissions reductions -
9:47 - 9:49we're supposed to get
under the Clean Power Plan. -
9:49 - 9:52Of course, in Japan, they took
all their nuclear plants offline, -
9:52 - 9:55replaced them with coal,
natural gas, oil burning, -
9:55 - 9:58and they're only expected to bring
online about a third to two-thirds. -
9:58 - 10:01So when we went through the numbers,
-
10:01 - 10:02and just added that up --
-
10:02 - 10:05how much nuclear do we see
China and India bringing online -
10:05 - 10:07over the next 15 years,
-
10:07 - 10:11how much do we see at risk
of being taken offline -- -
10:11 - 10:13this was the most startling finding.
-
10:13 - 10:17What we found is that
the world is actually at risk -
10:17 - 10:22of losing four times more clean energy
than we lost over the last 10 years. -
10:22 - 10:25In other words: we're not
in a clean energy revolution; -
10:25 - 10:28we're in a clean energy crisis.
-
10:29 - 10:33So it's understandable that engineers
would look for a technical fix -
10:33 - 10:35to the fears that people have of nuclear.
-
10:35 - 10:38But when you consider
that these are big challenges to do, -
10:38 - 10:40that they're going to take
a long time to solve, -
10:40 - 10:42there's this other issue, which is:
-
10:42 - 10:45Are those technical fixes
really going to solve people's fears? -
10:46 - 10:47Let's take safety.
-
10:47 - 10:50You know, despite what people think,
-
10:50 - 10:53it's hard to figure out how
to make nuclear power much safer. -
10:53 - 10:55I mean, every medical
journal that looks at it -- -
10:55 - 10:59this is the most recent study
from the British journal, "Lancet," -
10:59 - 11:01one of the most respected
journals in the world -- -
11:01 - 11:04nuclear is the safest way
to make reliable power. -
11:04 - 11:05Everybody's scared of the accidents.
-
11:05 - 11:08So you go look at the accident data --
-
11:08 - 11:09Fukushima, Chernobyl --
-
11:09 - 11:12the World Health Organization
finds the same thing: -
11:12 - 11:16the vast majority of harm
is caused by people panicking, -
11:16 - 11:18and they're panicking
because they're afraid. -
11:18 - 11:20In other words,
-
11:20 - 11:23the harm that's caused
isn't actually caused by the machines -
11:23 - 11:24or the radiation.
-
11:24 - 11:26It's caused by our fears.
-
11:27 - 11:28And what about the waste?
-
11:28 - 11:30Everyone worries about the waste.
-
11:30 - 11:32Well, the interesting
thing about the waste -
11:32 - 11:33is how little of it there is.
-
11:33 - 11:35This is just from one plant.
-
11:35 - 11:38If you take all the nuclear waste
we've ever made in the United States, -
11:38 - 11:40put it on a football field, stacked it up,
-
11:40 - 11:43it would only reach 20 feet high.
-
11:43 - 11:46And people say it's poisoning
people or doing something -- -
11:46 - 11:49it's not, it's just sitting
there, it's just being monitored. -
11:49 - 11:50There's not very much of it.
-
11:50 - 11:54By contrast, the waste that we don't
control from energy production -- -
11:54 - 11:57we call it "pollution," and it kills
seven million people a year, -
11:57 - 12:00and it's threatening very serious
levels of global warming. -
12:00 - 12:04And the truth is that even if we get
good at using that waste as fuel, -
12:04 - 12:06there's always going to be
some fuel left over. -
12:06 - 12:10That means there's always going to be
people that think it's a big problem -
12:10 - 12:14for reasons that maybe don't have
as much to do with the actual waste -
12:14 - 12:15as we think.
-
12:15 - 12:17Well, what about the weapons?
-
12:17 - 12:20Maybe the most surprising thing
is that we can't find any examples -
12:20 - 12:22of countries that have nuclear power
-
12:22 - 12:25and then, "Oh!" decide to go get a weapon.
-
12:25 - 12:26In fact, it works the opposite.
-
12:27 - 12:29What we find is the only way we know
-
12:29 - 12:31how to get rid large numbers
of nuclear weapons -
12:31 - 12:34is by using the plutonium in the warheads
-
12:34 - 12:36as fuel in our nuclear power plants.
-
12:36 - 12:40And so, if you are wanting to get
the world rid of nuclear weapons, -
12:40 - 12:43then we're going to need
a lot more nuclear power. -
12:44 - 12:47(Applause)
-
12:50 - 12:51As I was leaving China,
-
12:51 - 12:54the engineer that brought Bill Gates there
kind of pulled me aside, -
12:54 - 12:57and he said, "You know, Michael,
I appreciate your interest -
12:57 - 13:00in all the different nuclear
supply technologies, -
13:00 - 13:03but there's this more basic issue,
-
13:03 - 13:05which is that there's just not
enough global demand. -
13:05 - 13:08I mean, we can crank out
these machines on assembly lines, -
13:08 - 13:10we do know how to make things cheap,
-
13:10 - 13:12but there's just not enough
people that want them." -
13:12 - 13:17And so, let's do solar and wind
and efficiency and conservation. -
13:17 - 13:20Let's accelerate the advanced
nuclear programs. -
13:20 - 13:23I think we should triple the amount
of money we're spending on it. -
13:23 - 13:25But I just think the most important thing,
-
13:25 - 13:28if we're going to overcome
the climate crisis, -
13:28 - 13:32is to keep in mind that the cause
of the clean energy crisis -
13:33 - 13:35isn't from within our machines,
-
13:35 - 13:37it's from within ourselves.
-
13:38 - 13:39Thank you very much.
-
13:39 - 13:45(Applause)
- Title:
- How fear of nuclear power is hurting the environment
- Speaker:
- Michael Shellenberger
- Description:
-
"We're not in a clean energy revolution; we're in a clean energy crisis," says climate policy expert Michael Shellenberger. His surprising solution: nuclear. In this passionate talk, he explains why it's time to overcome longstanding fears of the technology, and why he and other environmentalists believe it's past time to embrace nuclear as a viable and desirable source of clean power.
- Video Language:
- English
- Team:
- closed TED
- Project:
- TEDTalks
- Duration:
- 13:58
Brian Greene edited English subtitles for How fear of nuclear power is hurting the environment | ||
Brian Greene approved English subtitles for How fear of nuclear power is hurting the environment | ||
Brian Greene edited English subtitles for How fear of nuclear power is hurting the environment | ||
Camille Martínez accepted English subtitles for How fear of nuclear power is hurting the environment | ||
Camille Martínez edited English subtitles for How fear of nuclear power is hurting the environment | ||
Camille Martínez edited English subtitles for How fear of nuclear power is hurting the environment | ||
Leslie Gauthier edited English subtitles for How fear of nuclear power is hurting the environment | ||
Leslie Gauthier edited English subtitles for How fear of nuclear power is hurting the environment |