Why Brexit happened -- and what to do next
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0:02 - 0:04I am British.
-
0:04 - 0:06(Laughter)
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0:06 - 0:09(Applause)
-
0:09 - 0:13Never before has the phrase
"I am British" elicited so much pity. -
0:13 - 0:15(Laughter)
-
0:15 - 0:18I come from an island
where many of us like to believe -
0:18 - 0:21there's been a lot of continuity
over the last thousand years. -
0:21 - 0:24We tend to have historically
imposed change on others -
0:24 - 0:26but done much less of it ourselves.
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0:27 - 0:30So it came as an immense shock to me
-
0:30 - 0:33when I woke up on the morning of June 24
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0:33 - 0:36to discover that my country
had voted to leave the European Union, -
0:37 - 0:38my Prime Minister had resigned,
-
0:38 - 0:41and Scotland was considering a referendum
-
0:41 - 0:46that could bring to an end
the very existence of the United Kingdom. -
0:47 - 0:50So that was an immense shock for me,
-
0:50 - 0:52and it was an immense
shock for many people, -
0:53 - 0:57but it was also something
that, over the following several days, -
0:57 - 0:59created a complete political meltdown
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0:59 - 1:01in my country.
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1:01 - 1:03There were calls for a second referendum,
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1:03 - 1:06almost as if, following a sports match,
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1:06 - 1:08we could ask the opposition for a replay.
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1:09 - 1:11Everybody was blaming everybody else.
-
1:11 - 1:13People blamed the Prime Minister
-
1:13 - 1:15for calling the referendum
in the first place. -
1:15 - 1:19They blamed the leader of the opposition
for not fighting it hard enough. -
1:19 - 1:20The young accused the old.
-
1:20 - 1:23The educated blamed
the less well-educated. -
1:23 - 1:27That complete meltdown was made even worse
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1:27 - 1:29by the most tragic element of it:
-
1:29 - 1:33levels of xenophobia and racist abuse
in the streets of Britain -
1:33 - 1:35at a level that I have never seen before
-
1:35 - 1:36in my lifetime.
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1:38 - 1:42People are now talking about whether
my country is becoming a Little England, -
1:42 - 1:44or, as one of my colleagues put it,
-
1:44 - 1:48whether we're about to become
a 1950s nostalgia theme park -
1:49 - 1:51floating in the Atlantic Ocean.
-
1:51 - 1:53(Laughter)
-
1:54 - 1:56But my question is really,
-
1:56 - 2:01should we have the degree of shock
that we've experienced since? -
2:01 - 2:04Was it something
that took place overnight? -
2:04 - 2:08Or are there deeper structural factors
that have led us to where we are today? -
2:08 - 2:13So I want to take a step back
and ask two very basic questions. -
2:13 - 2:16First, what does Brexit represent,
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2:16 - 2:17not just for my country,
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2:17 - 2:20but for all of us around the world?
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2:20 - 2:23And second, what can we do about it?
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2:23 - 2:26How should we all respond?
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2:26 - 2:28So first, what does Brexit represent?
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2:29 - 2:31Hindsight is a wonderful thing.
-
2:32 - 2:36Brexit teaches us many things
about our society -
2:36 - 2:38and about societies around the world.
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2:39 - 2:43It highlights in ways
that we seem embarrassingly unaware of -
2:43 - 2:44how divided our societies are.
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2:45 - 2:51The vote split along lines of age,
education, class and geography. -
2:51 - 2:54Young people didn't turn out
to vote in great numbers, -
2:54 - 2:56but those that did wanted to remain.
-
2:56 - 3:00Older people really wanted
to leave the European Union. -
3:00 - 3:04Geographically, it was London and Scotland
that most strongly committed -
3:04 - 3:06to being part of the European Union,
-
3:06 - 3:10while in other parts of the country
there was very strong ambivalence. -
3:11 - 3:15Those divisions are things we really
need to recognize and take seriously. -
3:15 - 3:18But more profoundly,
the vote teaches us something -
3:18 - 3:21about the nature of politics today.
-
3:21 - 3:25Contemporary politics
is no longer just about right and left. -
3:25 - 3:28It's no longer just about tax and spend.
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3:28 - 3:30It's about globalization.
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3:30 - 3:34The fault line of contemporary politics is
between those that embrace globalization -
3:34 - 3:37and those that fear globalization.
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3:38 - 3:41(Applause)
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3:44 - 3:46If we look at why
those who wanted to leave -- -
3:46 - 3:49we call them "Leavers,"
as opposed to "Remainers" -- -
3:49 - 3:51we see two factors in the opinion polls
-
3:51 - 3:53that really mattered.
-
3:53 - 3:56The first was immigration,
and the second sovereignty, -
3:56 - 4:01and these represent a desire for people
to take back control of their own lives -
4:01 - 4:05and the feeling that they
are unrepresented by politicians. -
4:07 - 4:12But those ideas are ones
that signify fear and alienation. -
4:12 - 4:17They represent a retreat
back towards nationalism and borders -
4:17 - 4:19in ways that many of us would reject.
-
4:20 - 4:23What I want to suggest is the picture
is more complicated than that, -
4:23 - 4:24that liberal internationalists,
-
4:24 - 4:28like myself, and I firmly
include myself in that picture, -
4:28 - 4:30need to write ourselves
back into the picture -
4:30 - 4:34in order to understand
how we've got to where we are today. -
4:35 - 4:38When we look at the voting patterns
across the United Kingdom, -
4:38 - 4:41we can visibly see the divisions.
-
4:41 - 4:44The blue areas show Remain
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4:44 - 4:46and the red areas Leave.
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4:46 - 4:47When I looked at this,
-
4:47 - 4:51what personally struck me
was the very little time in my life -
4:51 - 4:54I've actually spent
in many of the red areas. -
4:54 - 4:59I suddenly realized that,
looking at the top 50 areas in the UK -
4:59 - 5:01that have the strongest Leave vote,
-
5:01 - 5:07I've spent a combined total
of four days of my life in those areas. -
5:08 - 5:09In some of those places,
-
5:09 - 5:13I didn't even know the names
of the voting districts. -
5:13 - 5:15It was a real shock to me,
-
5:15 - 5:17and it suggested that people like me
-
5:17 - 5:21who think of ourselves
as inclusive, open and tolerant, -
5:21 - 5:23perhaps don't know
our own countries and societies -
5:23 - 5:26nearly as well as we like to believe.
-
5:26 - 5:29(Applause)
-
5:36 - 5:40And the challenge that comes from that
is we need to find a new way -
5:40 - 5:43to narrate globalization to those people,
-
5:43 - 5:47to recognize that for those people who
have not necessarily been to university, -
5:48 - 5:50who haven't necessarily
grown up with the Internet, -
5:50 - 5:52that don't get opportunities to travel,
-
5:52 - 5:56they may be unpersuaded
by the narrative that we find persuasive -
5:56 - 5:58in our often liberal bubbles.
-
5:59 - 6:01(Applause)
-
6:04 - 6:07It means that we need to reach out
more broadly and understand. -
6:08 - 6:14In the Leave vote, a minority have peddled
the politics of fear and hatred, -
6:14 - 6:16creating lies and mistrust
-
6:16 - 6:19around, for instance,
the idea that the vote on Europe -
6:19 - 6:23could reduce the number of refugees
and asylum-seekers coming to Europe, -
6:23 - 6:26when the vote on leaving
had nothing to do with immigration -
6:26 - 6:28from outside the European Union.
-
6:29 - 6:33But for a significant majority
of the Leave voters -
6:33 - 6:36the concern was disillusionment
with the political establishment. -
6:36 - 6:39This was a protest vote for many,
-
6:39 - 6:41a sense that nobody represented them,
-
6:41 - 6:44that they couldn't find
a political party that spoke for them, -
6:44 - 6:48and so they rejected
that political establishment. -
6:49 - 6:54This replicates around Europe
and much of the liberal democratic world. -
6:55 - 6:59We see it with the rise in popularity
of Donald Trump in the United States, -
6:59 - 7:03with the growing nationalism
of Viktor Orbán in Hungary, -
7:04 - 7:08with the increase in popularity
of Marine Le Pen in France. -
7:08 - 7:12The specter of Brexit
is in all of our societies. -
7:13 - 7:16So the question I think we need to ask
is my second question, -
7:16 - 7:19which is how should we
collectively respond? -
7:19 - 7:25For all of us who care about creating
liberal, open, tolerant societies, -
7:25 - 7:28we urgently need a new vision,
-
7:28 - 7:32a vision of a more tolerant,
inclusive globalization, -
7:32 - 7:35one that brings people with us
rather than leaving them behind. -
7:37 - 7:39That vision of globalization
-
7:39 - 7:43is one that has to start by a recognition
of the positive benefits of globalization. -
7:43 - 7:46The consensus amongst economists
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7:46 - 7:49is that free trade,
the movement of capital, -
7:49 - 7:51the movement of people across borders
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7:51 - 7:54benefit everyone on aggregate.
-
7:54 - 7:56The consensus amongst
international relations scholars -
7:56 - 7:59is that globalization
brings interdependence, -
7:59 - 8:02which brings cooperation and peace.
-
8:02 - 8:06But globalization
also has redistributive effects. -
8:06 - 8:09It creates winners and losers.
-
8:09 - 8:11To take the example of migration,
-
8:11 - 8:15we know that immigration is a net positive
for the economy as a whole -
8:15 - 8:17under almost all circumstances.
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8:18 - 8:21But we also have to be very aware
-
8:21 - 8:24that there are
redistributive consequences, -
8:24 - 8:28that importantly, low-skilled immigration
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8:28 - 8:32can lead to a reduction in wages
for the most impoverished in our societies -
8:32 - 8:34and also put pressure on house prices.
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8:34 - 8:37That doesn't detract
from the fact that it's positive, -
8:37 - 8:40but it means more people
have to share in those benefits -
8:40 - 8:41and recognize them.
-
8:43 - 8:48In 2002, the former Secretary-General
of the United Nations, Kofi Annan, -
8:48 - 8:51gave a speech at Yale University,
-
8:51 - 8:55and that speech was on the topic
of inclusive globalization. -
8:55 - 8:58That was the speech
in which he coined that term. -
8:58 - 9:01And he said, and I paraphrase,
-
9:01 - 9:06"The glass house of globalization
has to be open to all -
9:06 - 9:09if it is to remain secure.
-
9:09 - 9:13Bigotry and ignorance
-
9:13 - 9:19are the ugly face of exclusionary
and antagonistic globalization." -
9:19 - 9:24That idea of inclusive globalization
was briefly revived in 2008 -
9:24 - 9:27in a conference on progressive governance
-
9:27 - 9:30involving many of the leaders
of European countries. -
9:31 - 9:35But amid austerity
and the financial crisis of 2008, -
9:35 - 9:38the concept disappeared
almost without a trace. -
9:38 - 9:43Globalization has been taken
to support a neoliberal agenda. -
9:43 - 9:46It's perceived to be
part of an elite agenda -
9:46 - 9:48rather than something that benefits all.
-
9:48 - 9:52And it needs to be reclaimed
on a far more inclusive basis -
9:52 - 9:53than it is today.
-
9:54 - 9:57So the question is,
how can we achieve that goal? -
9:57 - 10:02How can we balance on the one hand
addressing fear and alienation -
10:02 - 10:06while on the other hand
refusing vehemently -
10:06 - 10:09to give in to xenophobia and nationalism?
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10:09 - 10:12That is the question for all of us.
-
10:12 - 10:13And I think, as a social scientist,
-
10:13 - 10:16that social science
offers some places to start. -
10:17 - 10:22Our transformation has to be about
both ideas and about material change, -
10:22 - 10:26and I want to give you four ideas
as a starting point. -
10:26 - 10:30The first relates to the idea
of civic education. -
10:30 - 10:32What stands out from Brexit
-
10:32 - 10:36is the gap between public perception
and empirical reality. -
10:36 - 10:40It's been suggested that we've moved
to a postfactual society, -
10:40 - 10:43where evidence and truth no longer matter,
-
10:43 - 10:47and lies have equal status
to the clarity of evidence. -
10:47 - 10:48So how can we --
-
10:48 - 10:51(Applause)
-
10:51 - 10:56How can we rebuild respect for truth
and evidence into our liberal democracies? -
10:56 - 10:58It has to begin with education,
-
10:58 - 11:01but it has to start with the recognition
that there are huge gaps. -
11:02 - 11:07In 2014, the pollster Ipsos MORI
-
11:07 - 11:10published a survey
on attitudes to immigration, -
11:10 - 11:14and it showed that as numbers
of immigrants increase, -
11:14 - 11:17so public concern
with immigration also increases, -
11:17 - 11:20although it obviously
didn't unpack causality, -
11:20 - 11:23because this could equally be to do
not so much with numbers -
11:23 - 11:25but the political
and media narrative around it. -
11:26 - 11:30But the same survey also revealed
-
11:30 - 11:32huge public misinformation
-
11:32 - 11:35and misunderstanding
about the nature of immigration. -
11:36 - 11:39For example, in these attitudes
in the United Kingdom, -
11:39 - 11:41the public believed that levels of asylum
-
11:42 - 11:45were a greater proportion
of immigration than they were, -
11:45 - 11:48but they also believed
the levels of educational migration -
11:48 - 11:52were far lower as a proportion
of overall migration -
11:52 - 11:53than they actually are.
-
11:53 - 11:56So we have to address this misinformation,
-
11:56 - 12:00the gap between perception and reality
on key aspects of globalization. -
12:00 - 12:03And that can't just be something
that's left to our schools, -
12:03 - 12:06although that's important
to begin at an early age. -
12:06 - 12:09It has to be about lifelong
civic participation -
12:09 - 12:13and public engagement
that we all encourage as societies. -
12:14 - 12:17The second thing
that I think is an opportunity -
12:17 - 12:21is the idea to encourage more interaction
across diverse communities. -
12:21 - 12:24(Applause)
-
12:26 - 12:29One of the things that stands out
for me very strikingly, -
12:29 - 12:32looking at immigration attitudes
in the United Kingdom, -
12:32 - 12:34is that ironically,
the regions of my country -
12:34 - 12:36that are the most tolerant of immigrants
-
12:36 - 12:39have the highest numbers of immigrants.
-
12:39 - 12:43So for instance, London and the Southeast
have the highest numbers of immigrants, -
12:44 - 12:47and they are also by far
the most tolerant areas. -
12:47 - 12:50It's those areas of the country
that have the lowest levels of immigration -
12:50 - 12:55that actually are the most exclusionary
and intolerant towards migrants. -
12:55 - 12:58So we need to encourage exchange programs.
-
12:58 - 13:01We need to ensure that older generations
who maybe can't travel -
13:01 - 13:03get access to the Internet.
-
13:03 - 13:06We need to encourage,
even on a local and national level, -
13:06 - 13:08more movement, more participation,
-
13:08 - 13:11more interaction
with people who we don't know -
13:11 - 13:14and whose views we might
not necessarily agree with. -
13:15 - 13:17The third thing that I think
is crucial, though, -
13:17 - 13:19and this is really fundamental,
-
13:19 - 13:21is we have to ensure that everybody shares
-
13:21 - 13:24in the benefits of globalization.
-
13:25 - 13:29This illustration from the Financial Times
post-Brexit is really striking. -
13:29 - 13:33It shows tragically that those people
who voted to leave the European Union -
13:33 - 13:36were those who actually
benefited the most materially -
13:36 - 13:38from trade with the European Union.
-
13:39 - 13:42But the problem is
that those people in those areas -
13:42 - 13:44didn't perceive themselves
to be beneficiaries. -
13:44 - 13:47They didn't believe that they
were actually getting access -
13:47 - 13:53to material benefits of increased trade
and increased mobility around the world. -
13:54 - 13:58I work on questions
predominantly to do with refugees, -
13:58 - 14:00and one of the ideas
I spent a lot of my time preaching, -
14:00 - 14:03mainly to developing countries
around the world, -
14:03 - 14:07is that in order to encourage
the integration of refugees, -
14:07 - 14:09we can't just benefit
the refugee populations, -
14:09 - 14:14we also have to address the concerns
of the host communities in local areas. -
14:15 - 14:17But in looking at that,
-
14:17 - 14:20one of the policy prescriptions
is that we have to provide -
14:20 - 14:23disproportionately better
education facilities, health facilities, -
14:24 - 14:25access to social services
-
14:25 - 14:28in those regions of high immigration
-
14:28 - 14:30to address the concerns
of those local populations. -
14:30 - 14:33But while we encourage that
around the developing world, -
14:33 - 14:35we don't take those lessons home
-
14:35 - 14:38and incorporate them in our own societies.
-
14:39 - 14:42Furthermore, if we're going
to really take seriously -
14:42 - 14:45the need to ensure people share
in the economic benefits, -
14:45 - 14:49our businesses and corporations
need a model of globalization -
14:49 - 14:52that recognizes that they, too,
have to take people with them. -
14:53 - 14:56The fourth and final idea
I want to put forward -
14:57 - 14:59is an idea that we need
more responsible politics. -
15:00 - 15:03There's very little
social science evidence -
15:03 - 15:06that compares attitudes on globalization.
-
15:06 - 15:09But from the surveys that do exist,
-
15:09 - 15:13what we can see is there's huge variation
across different countries -
15:13 - 15:16and time periods in those countries
-
15:16 - 15:17for attitudes and tolerance
-
15:17 - 15:21of questions like migration
and mobility on the one hand -
15:21 - 15:23and free trade on the other.
-
15:23 - 15:28But one hypothesis that I think emerges
from a cursory look at that data -
15:28 - 15:34is the idea that polarized societies
are far less tolerant of globalization. -
15:34 - 15:37It's the societies
like Sweden in the past, -
15:37 - 15:39like Canada today,
-
15:39 - 15:40where there is a centrist politics,
-
15:40 - 15:42where right and left work together,
-
15:43 - 15:47that we encourage supportive attitudes
towards globalization. -
15:47 - 15:50And what we see around the world today
is a tragic polarization, -
15:50 - 15:53a failure to have dialogue
between the extremes in politics, -
15:53 - 15:56and a gap in terms
of that liberal center ground -
15:56 - 16:00that can encourage communication
and a shared understanding. -
16:00 - 16:02We might not achieve that today,
-
16:02 - 16:06but at the very least we have to call
upon our politicians and our media -
16:06 - 16:09to drop a language of fear
and be far more tolerant of one another. -
16:09 - 16:12(Applause)
-
16:18 - 16:21These ideas are very tentative,
-
16:21 - 16:25and that's in part because this needs
to be an inclusive and shared project. -
16:26 - 16:28I am still British.
-
16:29 - 16:31I am still European.
-
16:32 - 16:35I am still a global citizen.
-
16:35 - 16:37For those of us who believe
-
16:37 - 16:41that our identities
are not mutually exclusive, -
16:41 - 16:44we have to all work together
-
16:44 - 16:48to ensure that globalization
takes everyone with us -
16:48 - 16:50and doesn't leave people behind.
-
16:50 - 16:56Only then will we truly reconcile
democracy and globalization. -
16:56 - 16:57Thank you.
-
16:57 - 17:09(Applause)
- Title:
- Why Brexit happened -- and what to do next
- Speaker:
- Alexander Betts
- Description:
-
We are embarrassingly unaware of how divided our societies are, and Brexit grew out of a deep, unexamined divide between those that fear globalization and those that embrace it, says social scientist Alexander Betts. How do we now address that fear as well as growing disillusionment with the political establishment, while refusing to give in to xenophobia and nationalism? Join Betts as he discusses four post-Brexit steps toward a more inclusive world.
- Video Language:
- English
- Team:
- closed TED
- Project:
- TEDTalks
- Duration:
- 17:22
Marta Grochowalska commented on English subtitles for Why Brexit happened -- and what to do next | ||
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Riaki Ponist commented on English subtitles for Why Brexit happened -- and what to do next | ||
Brian Greene edited English subtitles for Why Brexit happened -- and what to do next | ||
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Joanna Pietrulewicz edited English subtitles for Why Brexit happened -- and what to do next |
Riaki Ponist
Misheard words:
9:35
with a trace -> without a trace
Marta Grochowalska
Hi, I translated this talk into Polish. Unfortunately, I had to adjust the timing of almost every single subtitle to avoid the blinking of the subtitles on screen. Probably, all other translators had to do that as well which is quite time consuming and not very interesting a task... Please always adjust timings of subtitles before submitting them. Thank you!