The next manufacturing revolution is here
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0:02 - 0:04Guys, we have an issue.
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0:04 - 0:05(Laughter)
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0:05 - 0:08Growth is fading away,
and it's a big deal. -
0:09 - 0:11Our global economy stops growing.
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0:12 - 0:13And it's not new.
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0:13 - 0:17Growth has actually declined
for the last 50 years. -
0:17 - 0:20If we continue like this, we need to learn
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0:20 - 0:24how to live in a world
with no growth in the next decade. -
0:24 - 0:28This is scary because
when the economy doesn't grow, -
0:28 - 0:30our children don't get better lives.
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0:31 - 0:34What's even scarier is that
when the pie does not grow, -
0:34 - 0:36each of us get a smaller piece.
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0:36 - 0:38We're then ready to fight
for a bigger one. -
0:38 - 0:41This creates tensions
and serious conflicts. -
0:42 - 0:44Growth matters a lot.
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0:45 - 0:48If we look at the history of growth,
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0:48 - 0:50times of big growth
have always been fueled -
0:50 - 0:52by big manufacturing revolutions.
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0:53 - 0:56It happened three times,
every 50-60 years. -
0:56 - 1:00The steam engine
in the middle of the 19th century, -
1:00 - 1:04the mass-production model
in the beginning of the 20th century -- -
1:04 - 1:06thanks, Mr. Ford.
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1:06 - 1:09And the first automation
wave in the 1970s. -
1:10 - 1:12Why did these manufacturing revolutions
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1:12 - 1:15create huge growth in our economies?
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1:16 - 1:19Because they have injected
huge productivity improvement. -
1:20 - 1:21It's rather simple:
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1:21 - 1:24in order to grow,
you need to be producing more, -
1:24 - 1:26putting more into our economy.
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1:27 - 1:33This means either more labor
or more capital or more productivity. -
1:33 - 1:36Each time, productivity
has been the growth lever. -
1:38 - 1:40I'm here today to tell you
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1:41 - 1:44that we are on the verge
of another huge change, -
1:44 - 1:48and that this change, surprisingly enough,
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1:48 - 1:50is going to come
from manufacturing, again. -
1:51 - 1:55It will get us out of our growth slump
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1:55 - 1:58and it will change radically
the way globalization has been shaped -
1:58 - 2:00over the last decade.
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2:00 - 2:05I'm here to tell you about the amazing
fourth manufacturing revolution -
2:05 - 2:07that is currently underway.
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2:07 - 2:10It's not as if we've done nothing
with manufacturing -
2:10 - 2:11since the last revolution.
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2:11 - 2:13Actually, we've made
some pretty lame attempts -
2:13 - 2:15to try to revitalize it.
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2:15 - 2:18But none of them
have been the big overhaul -
2:18 - 2:20we really need to get us growing again.
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2:20 - 2:25For example, we've tried
to relocate our factories offshore -
2:25 - 2:28in order to reduce cost
and take advantage of cheap labor. -
2:29 - 2:33Not only did this not
inspire productivity, -
2:33 - 2:35but it only saved money
for a short period of time, -
2:35 - 2:38because cheap labor
didn't stay cheap for long. -
2:38 - 2:42Then, we've tried to make
our factories larger -
2:42 - 2:44and we specialized them by product.
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2:45 - 2:49The idea was that we can
make a lot of one product -
2:49 - 2:51and stockpile it to be sold with demand.
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2:52 - 2:55This did help productivity for a while.
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2:55 - 2:59But it introduced a lot of rigidities
in our supply chain. -
2:59 - 3:01Let's take fashion retail.
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3:01 - 3:03Traditional clothing companies
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3:03 - 3:08have built offshore,
global, rigid supply chains. -
3:09 - 3:12When fast-fashion competitors like Zara
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3:12 - 3:14started replenishing their stocks faster
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3:14 - 3:18from two collections a year
to one collection a month, -
3:18 - 3:20none of them have been able
to keep up with the pace. -
3:20 - 3:23Most of them are
in great difficulties today. -
3:24 - 3:27Yet, with all of their shortcomings,
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3:27 - 3:29those are the factories we know today.
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3:30 - 3:31When you open the doors,
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3:31 - 3:34they look the same
as they did 50 years ago. -
3:34 - 3:39We've just changed the location,
the size, the way they operate. -
3:40 - 3:43Can you name anything else
that looks the same -
3:43 - 3:44as it did 50 years ago?
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3:44 - 3:45It's crazy.
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3:46 - 3:49We've made all the tweaks
to the model that we could, -
3:49 - 3:52and now we hit its limits.
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3:53 - 3:58After all of our attempts to fix
the manufacturing model failed, -
3:58 - 4:01we thought growth could come
from elsewhere. -
4:01 - 4:03We turned to the tech sector --
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4:03 - 4:05there's been quite a lot
of innovations there. -
4:05 - 4:07Just to name one: the Internet.
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4:08 - 4:10We hoped it could produce growth.
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4:10 - 4:12And indeed, it changed our lives.
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4:12 - 4:17It made big waves in the media,
the service, the entertainment spaces. -
4:17 - 4:19But it hasn't done much for productivity.
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4:20 - 4:24Actually, what's surprising
is that productivity is on the decline -
4:24 - 4:27despite all of those innovation efforts.
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4:28 - 4:31Imagine that -- sitting at work,
scrolling through Facebook, -
4:31 - 4:35watching videos on YouTube
has made us less productive. -
4:35 - 4:36Weird.
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4:36 - 4:38(Laughter)
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4:38 - 4:40This is why we are not growing.
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4:41 - 4:44We failed at reinventing
the manufacturing space, -
4:44 - 4:48and large technological innovations
have played away from it. -
4:49 - 4:51But what if we could combine those forces?
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4:52 - 4:57What if the existing manufacturing
and large technological innovation -
4:57 - 5:01came together to create
the next big manufacturing reinvention. -
5:01 - 5:03Bingo!
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5:03 - 5:05This is the fourth
manufacturing revolution, -
5:05 - 5:07and it's happening right now.
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5:07 - 5:11Major technologies are entering
the manufacturing space, -
5:11 - 5:12big time.
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5:12 - 5:15They will boost industrial productivity
by more than a third. -
5:16 - 5:20This is massive, and it will do
a lot in creating growth. -
5:21 - 5:23Let me tell you about some of them.
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5:24 - 5:27Have you already met advanced
manufacturing robots? -
5:28 - 5:30They are the size of humans,
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5:30 - 5:32they actually collaborate with them,
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5:32 - 5:33and they can be programmed
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5:33 - 5:36in order to perform
complex, non-repetitive tasks. -
5:38 - 5:43Today in our factories, only
8 percent of the tasks are automated. -
5:43 - 5:46The less complex,
the more repetitive ones. -
5:47 - 5:49It will be 25 percent in 10 years.
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5:49 - 5:52It means that by 2025,
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5:52 - 5:55advanced robots will complement workers
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5:55 - 5:58to be, together,
20 percent more productive, -
5:58 - 6:00to manufacture 20 percent more outputs,
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6:00 - 6:02to achieve 20 percent additional growth.
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6:03 - 6:06This isn't some fancy, futuristic idea.
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6:06 - 6:09These robots are working for us right now.
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6:10 - 6:16Last year in the US, they helped
Amazon prepare and ship all the products -
6:16 - 6:18required for Cyber Monday,
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6:18 - 6:20the annual peak of online retail.
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6:20 - 6:22Last year in the US,
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6:22 - 6:28it was the biggest online shopping day
of the year and of history. -
6:29 - 6:32Consumers spent 3 billion dollars
on electronics that day. -
6:32 - 6:35That's real economic growth.
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6:36 - 6:40Then there's additive
manufacturing, 3D printing. -
6:40 - 6:443D printing has already improved
plastic manufacturing -
6:44 - 6:47and it's now making its way through metal.
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6:47 - 6:48Those are not small industries.
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6:49 - 6:52Plastic and metals represent 25 percent
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6:52 - 6:54of global manufacturing production.
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6:55 - 6:56Let's take a real example.
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6:57 - 7:00In the aerospace industry,
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7:00 - 7:04fuel nozzles are some of the most
complex parts to manufacture, -
7:04 - 7:06for one reason:
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7:06 - 7:09they are made up of 20 different parts
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7:09 - 7:12that need to be separately produced
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7:12 - 7:14and then painstakingly assembled.
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7:15 - 7:18Aerospace companies
are now using 3D printing, -
7:18 - 7:22which allows them to turn
those 20 different parts -
7:22 - 7:23into just one.
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7:23 - 7:25The results?
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7:25 - 7:2740 percent more productivity,
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7:27 - 7:3140 percent more output produced,
40 percent more growth -
7:31 - 7:32for this specific industry.
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7:33 - 7:39But actually, the most exciting part
of this new manufacturing revolution -
7:39 - 7:42goes much beyond productivity.
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7:43 - 7:46It's about producing better,
smarter products. -
7:46 - 7:49It's about scale customization.
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7:49 - 7:54Imagine a world where you can buy
the exact products you want -
7:54 - 7:56with the functionalities you need,
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7:56 - 7:58with the design you want,
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7:58 - 8:00with the same cost and lead time
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8:00 - 8:02as a product that's been mass produced,
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8:02 - 8:04like your car, or your clothes
or your cell phone. -
8:05 - 8:08The new manufacturing revolution
makes it possible. -
8:09 - 8:11Advanced robots can be programmed
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8:11 - 8:15in order to perform
any product configuration -
8:15 - 8:17without any setup time or ramp up.
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8:18 - 8:243D printers instantaneously produce
any customized design. -
8:24 - 8:29We are now able to produce
a batch of one product, your product, -
8:29 - 8:33at the same cost and lead time
as a batch of many. -
8:34 - 8:37Those are only a few examples
of the manufacturing revolution at play. -
8:38 - 8:43Not only will manufacturing
become more productive, -
8:43 - 8:46it will also become more flexible,
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8:46 - 8:50and those were exactly the elements
of growth that we are missing. -
8:51 - 8:55But actually, there are even
some bigger implications -
8:55 - 9:00for all of us when manufacturing
will find its way back into the limelight. -
9:00 - 9:04It will create a huge macroeconomic shift.
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9:05 - 9:09First, our factories will be relocated
into our home markets. -
9:10 - 9:12In the world of scale customization,
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9:12 - 9:15consumer proximity is the new norm.
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9:16 - 9:20Then, our factories
will be smaller, agile. -
9:20 - 9:23Scale does not matter anymore,
flexibility does. -
9:24 - 9:27They will be operating on a multi-product,
made-to-order basis. -
9:28 - 9:30The change will be drastic.
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9:31 - 9:34Globalization will enter a new era.
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9:35 - 9:38The East-to-West trade flows
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9:38 - 9:41will be replaced by regional trade flows.
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9:41 - 9:43East for East, West for West.
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9:44 - 9:45When you think about that,
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9:46 - 9:48the old model was pretty much insane.
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9:49 - 9:53Piling up stocks, making products
travel the whole world -
9:53 - 9:55before they reach their end consumers.
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9:55 - 9:59The new model, producing
just next to the consumer market, -
9:59 - 10:03will be much cleaner,
much better for our environment. -
10:05 - 10:08In mature economies,
manufacturing will be back home, -
10:08 - 10:11creating more employment,
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10:11 - 10:13more productivity and more growth.
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10:14 - 10:15Good news, isn't it?
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10:17 - 10:18But here's the thing with growth --
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10:18 - 10:20it does not come automatically.
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10:20 - 10:22Mature economies will have to seize it.
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10:23 - 10:26We'll have to massively
re-train our workforce. -
10:27 - 10:29In most countries,
like in my country, France, -
10:29 - 10:32we've told our children
that manufacturing had no future. -
10:32 - 10:34That it was something happening far away.
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10:34 - 10:36We need to reverse that
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10:36 - 10:39and teach manufacturing again
at university. -
10:39 - 10:43Only the countries
that will boldly transform -
10:43 - 10:45will be able to seize this growth.
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10:47 - 10:50It's also a chance
for developing economies. -
10:50 - 10:54Of course China
and other emerging economies -
10:54 - 10:56won't be the factory of the world anymore.
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10:58 - 11:02Actually, it was not a sustainable
model in the long term, -
11:02 - 11:05as those countries are becoming richer.
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11:06 - 11:11Last year, it was already
as expensive to produce in Brazil -
11:11 - 11:12as to produce in France.
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11:14 - 11:20By 2018, manufacturing costs in China
will be on par with the US. -
11:21 - 11:24The new manufacturing revolution
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11:24 - 11:28will accelerate the transition
of those emerging economies -
11:28 - 11:32towards a model driven
by domestic consumption. -
11:32 - 11:33And this is good,
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11:33 - 11:35because this is where growth
will be created. -
11:36 - 11:38In the next five years,
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11:38 - 11:43the next billion consumers in China
will inject more growth in our economies -
11:43 - 11:45than the top five
European markets together. -
11:48 - 11:52This fourth manufacturing revolution
is a chance for all of us. -
11:53 - 11:55If we play it right,
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11:55 - 11:58we'll see sustainable growth
in all of our economies. -
11:59 - 12:03This means more wealth
distributed to all of us -
12:03 - 12:05and a better future for our children.
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12:05 - 12:06Thank you.
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12:06 - 12:14(Applause)
- Title:
- The next manufacturing revolution is here
- Speaker:
- Olivier Scalabre
- Description:
-
Economic growth has been slowing for the past 50 years, but relief might come from an unexpected place -- a new form of manufacturing that is neither what you thought it was nor where you thought it was. Industrial systems thinker Olivier Scalabre details how a fourth manufacturing revolution will produce a macroeconomic shift and boost employment, productivity and growth.
- Video Language:
- English
- Team:
- closed TED
- Project:
- TEDTalks
- Duration:
- 12:26
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