Crop insurance, an idea worth seeding
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0:00 - 0:04In Kenya, 1984 is known
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0:04 - 0:06as the year of the cup,
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0:06 - 0:09or the goro goro.
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0:09 - 0:12The goro goro is a cup used to measure
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0:12 - 0:15two kilograms of maize flower on the market,
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0:15 - 0:18and the maize flower is used to make ugali,
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0:18 - 0:22a polenta-like cake that is eaten
together with vegetables. -
0:22 - 0:24Both the maize and the vegetables are grown
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0:24 - 0:27on most Kenyan farms,
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0:27 - 0:29which means that most families can feed themselves
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0:29 - 0:31from their own farm.
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0:31 - 0:35One goro goro can feed three meals
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0:35 - 0:37for an average family,
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0:37 - 0:40and in 1984, the whole harvest
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0:40 - 0:43could fit in one goro goro.
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0:43 - 0:46It was and still is one of the worst droughts
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0:46 - 0:49in living memory.
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0:49 - 0:52Now today, I insure farmers against droughts
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0:52 - 0:54like those in the year of the cup,
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0:54 - 0:59or to be more specific, I insure the rains.
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0:59 - 1:01I come from a family of missionaries
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1:01 - 1:03who built hospitals in Indonesia,
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1:03 - 1:06and my father built a psychiatric hospital
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1:06 - 1:07in Tanzania.
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1:07 - 1:10This is me, age five, in front of that hospital.
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1:10 - 1:12I don't think they thought I'd grow up
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1:12 - 1:15to sell insurance. (Laughter)
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1:15 - 1:18So let me tell you how that happened.
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1:18 - 1:20In 2008, I was working
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1:20 - 1:22for the Ministry of Agriculture of Rwanda,
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1:22 - 1:24and my boss had just been promoted
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1:24 - 1:26to become the minister.
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1:26 - 1:27She launched an ambitious plan
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1:27 - 1:30to start a green revolution in her country,
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1:30 - 1:31and before we knew it, we were importing
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1:31 - 1:34tons of fertilizer and seed
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1:34 - 1:36and telling farmers how to apply that fertilizer
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1:36 - 1:38and plant.
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1:38 - 1:40A couple of weeks later,
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1:40 - 1:43the International Monetary Fund visited us,
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1:43 - 1:44and asked my minister,
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1:44 - 1:47"Minister, it's great that you want to help farmers
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1:47 - 1:51reach food security, but what if it doesn't rain?"
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1:51 - 1:53My minister answered proudly
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1:53 - 1:55and somewhat defiantly,
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1:55 - 2:00"I am going to pray for rain."
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2:00 - 2:03That ended the discussion.
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2:03 - 2:05On the way back to the ministry in the car,
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2:05 - 2:07she turned around to me and said,
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2:07 - 2:09"Rose, you've always been interested in finance.
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2:09 - 2:13Go find us some insurance."
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2:13 - 2:15It's been six years since,
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2:15 - 2:17and last year I was fortunate enough
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2:17 - 2:18to be part of a team that insured
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2:18 - 2:22over 185,000 farmers in Kenya and Rwanda
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2:22 - 2:24against drought.
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2:24 - 2:26They owned an average of half an acre
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2:26 - 2:29and paid on average two Euros in premium.
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2:29 - 2:32It's microinsurance.
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2:32 - 2:34Now, traditional insurance doesn't work
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2:34 - 2:36with two to three Euros of premium,
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2:36 - 2:39because traditional insurance relies on farm visits.
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2:39 - 2:41A farmer here in Germany would be visited
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2:41 - 2:43for the start of the season, halfway through,
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2:43 - 2:46and at the end, and again if there was a loss,
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2:46 - 2:49to estimate the damages.
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2:49 - 2:52For a small-scale farmer in the middle of Africa,
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2:52 - 2:54the maths of doing those visits
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2:54 - 2:57simply don't add up.
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2:57 - 3:01So instead, we rely on technology and data.
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3:01 - 3:03This satellite measures
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3:03 - 3:05whether there were clouds or not,
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3:05 - 3:06because think about it:
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3:06 - 3:11If there are clouds, then you might have some rain,
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3:11 - 3:13but if there are no clouds,
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3:13 - 3:16then it's actually impossible for it to rain.
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3:16 - 3:18These images show the onset of the rains
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3:18 - 3:20this season in Kenya.
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3:20 - 3:22You see that around March 6,
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3:22 - 3:25the clouds move in and then disappear,
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3:25 - 3:27and then around the March 11,
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3:27 - 3:30the clouds really move in.
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3:30 - 3:33That, and those clouds,
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3:33 - 3:36were the onset of the rains this year.
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3:36 - 3:39This satellite covers the whole of Africa
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3:39 - 3:42and goes back as far as 1984,
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3:42 - 3:44and that's important, because if you know
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3:44 - 3:46how many times a place has had a drought
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3:46 - 3:48in the last 30 years,
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3:48 - 3:50you can make a pretty good estimate
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3:50 - 3:53what the chances are of drought in the future,
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3:53 - 3:55and that means that you can put a price tag
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3:55 - 3:58on the risk of drought.
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3:58 - 4:00The data alone isn't enough.
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4:00 - 4:03We devise agronomic algorithms
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4:03 - 4:06which tell us how much rainfall
a crop needs and when. -
4:06 - 4:09For example, for maize at planting,
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4:09 - 4:11you need to have two days of rain
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4:11 - 4:13for farmers to plant,
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4:13 - 4:15and then it needs to rain once every two weeks
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4:15 - 4:18for the crop to properly germinate.
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4:18 - 4:21After that, you need rain every three weeks
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4:21 - 4:24for the crop to form its leaves,
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4:24 - 4:27whereas at flowering, you
need it to rain more frequently, -
4:27 - 4:31about once every 10 days
for the crop to form its cob. -
4:31 - 4:32At the end of the season,
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4:32 - 4:34you actually don't want it to rain,
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4:34 - 4:38because rains then can damage the crop.
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4:38 - 4:41Devising such a cover is difficult,
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4:41 - 4:43but it turned out the real challenge
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4:43 - 4:48was selling insurance.
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4:48 - 4:50We set ourselves a modest target
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4:50 - 4:54of 500 farmers insured after our first season.
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4:54 - 4:57After a couple of months' intense marketing,
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4:57 - 4:58we had signed up the grand total
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4:58 - 5:02of 185 farmers.
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5:02 - 5:05I was disappointed and confounded.
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5:05 - 5:07Everybody kept telling me that farmers
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5:07 - 5:09wanted insurance,
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5:09 - 5:12but our prime customers simply weren't buying.
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5:12 - 5:15They were waiting to see what would happen,
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5:15 - 5:18didn't trust insurance companies,
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5:18 - 5:20or thought, "I've managed for so many years.
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5:20 - 5:24Why would I buy insurance now?"
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5:24 - 5:26Now many of you know microcredit,
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5:26 - 5:30the method of providing small loans to poor people
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5:30 - 5:32pioneered by Muhammad Yunus,
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5:32 - 5:33who won the Nobel Peace Prize
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5:33 - 5:35for his work with the Grameen Bank.
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5:35 - 5:38Turns out, selling microcredit
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5:38 - 5:41isn't the same as selling insurance.
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5:41 - 5:45For credit, a farmer needs
to earn the trust of a bank, -
5:45 - 5:49and if it succeeds, the bank will advance him money.
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5:49 - 5:51That's an attractive proposition.
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5:51 - 5:54For insurance, the farmer needs to trust
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5:54 - 5:56the insurance company, and needs
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5:56 - 5:59to advance the insurance company money.
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5:59 - 6:02It's a very different value proposition.
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6:02 - 6:05And so the uptick of insurance has been slow,
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6:05 - 6:08with so far only 4.4 percent of Africans
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6:08 - 6:10taking up insurance in 2012,
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6:10 - 6:12and half of that number is in one country,
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6:12 - 6:14South Africa.
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6:14 - 6:16We tried for some years
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6:16 - 6:18selling insurance directly to farmers,
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6:18 - 6:20with very high marketing cost
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6:20 - 6:24and very limited success.
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6:24 - 6:25Then we realized that there were many organizations
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6:25 - 6:28working with farmers:
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6:28 - 6:32seed companies, microfinance institutions,
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6:32 - 6:34mobile phone companies,
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6:34 - 6:35government agencies.
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6:35 - 6:38They were all providing loans to farmers,
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6:38 - 6:40and often, just before they'd finalize the loan,
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6:40 - 6:42the farmer would say,
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6:42 - 6:44"But what if it doesn't rain?
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6:44 - 6:48How do you expect me to repay my loan?"
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6:48 - 6:50Many of these organizations
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6:50 - 6:52were taking on the risk themselves,
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6:52 - 6:54simply hoping that that year,
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6:54 - 6:56the worst wouldn't happen.
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6:56 - 6:58Most of the organizations, however,
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6:58 - 7:00were limiting their growth in agriculture.
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7:00 - 7:03They couldn't take on this kind of risk.
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7:03 - 7:07These organizations became our customers,
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7:07 - 7:10and when combining credit and insurance,
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7:10 - 7:13interesting things can happen.
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7:13 - 7:16Let me tell you one more story.
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7:16 - 7:20At the start of February 2012 in western Kenya,
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7:20 - 7:23the rains started, and they started early,
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7:23 - 7:26and when rains start early, farmers are encouraged,
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7:26 - 7:30because it usually means that
the season is going to be good. -
7:30 - 7:32So they took out loans and planted.
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7:32 - 7:34For the next three weeks,
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7:34 - 7:36there wasn't a single drop of rain,
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7:36 - 7:39and the crops that had germinated so well
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7:39 - 7:42shriveled and died.
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7:42 - 7:45We'd insured the loans of a microfinance institution
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7:45 - 7:46that had provided those loans
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7:46 - 7:49to about 6,000 farmers in that area,
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7:49 - 7:51and we called them up and said,
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7:51 - 7:52"Look, we know about the drought.
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7:52 - 7:54We've got you.
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7:54 - 7:58We'll give you 200,000 Euros
at the end of the season." -
7:58 - 8:00They said, "Wow, that's great,
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8:00 - 8:02but that'll be late.
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8:02 - 8:04Could you give us the money now?
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8:04 - 8:07Then these farmers can still replant
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8:07 - 8:10and can get a harvest this season."
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8:10 - 8:13So we convinced our insurance partners,
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8:13 - 8:16and later that April, these farmers replanted.
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8:16 - 8:19We took the idea of replanting to a seed company
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8:19 - 8:21and convinced them to price the cost of insurance
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8:21 - 8:23into every bag of seed,
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8:23 - 8:25and in every bag, we packed a card
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8:25 - 8:26that had a number on it,
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8:26 - 8:28and when the farmers would open the card,
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8:28 - 8:30they'd text in that number,
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8:30 - 8:32and that number would actually help us
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8:32 - 8:33to locate the farmer
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8:33 - 8:36and allocate them to a satellite pixel.
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8:36 - 8:39A satellite would then measure the rainfall
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8:39 - 8:40for the next three weeks,
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8:40 - 8:42and if it didn't rain,
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8:42 - 8:46we'd replace their seed.
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8:46 - 8:47One of the first —
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8:47 - 8:52(Applause) — Hold on, I'm not there!
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8:52 - 8:55One of the first beneficiaries
of this replanting guarantee -
8:55 - 8:57was Bosco Mwinyi.
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8:57 - 9:00We visited his farm later that August,
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9:00 - 9:04and I wish I could show you the smile on his face
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9:04 - 9:06when he showed us his harvest,
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9:06 - 9:08because it warmed my heart
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9:08 - 9:10and it made me realize why selling insurance
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9:10 - 9:12can be a good thing.
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9:12 - 9:14But you know, he insisted
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9:14 - 9:17that we get his whole harvest in the picture,
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9:17 - 9:21so we had to zoom out a lot.
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9:21 - 9:24Insurance secured his harvest that season,
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9:24 - 9:27and I believe that today,
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9:27 - 9:30we have all the tools to enable African farmers
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9:30 - 9:32to take control of their own destiny.
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9:32 - 9:34No more years of the cup.
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9:34 - 9:37Instead, I am looking forward to, at least somehow,
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9:37 - 9:40the year of the insurance,
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9:40 - 9:43or the year of the great harvest.
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9:43 - 9:46Thank you.
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9:46 - 9:47(Applause)
- Title:
- Crop insurance, an idea worth seeding
- Speaker:
- Rose Goslinga
- Description:
-
Across sub-Saharan Africa, small farmers are the bedrock of national and regional economies—unless the weather proves unpredictable and their crops fail. The solution is insurance, at a vast, continental scale, and at a very low, affordable cost. Rose Goslinga, a citizen of Kenya, and her team pioneered an unconventional way to give farmers whose crops fail early a second chance at a growing season.
- Video Language:
- English
- Team:
- closed TED
- Project:
- TEDTalks
- Duration:
- 10:04
Morton Bast edited English subtitles for Crop insurance, an idea worth seeding | ||
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Morton Bast edited English subtitles for Crop insurance, an idea worth seeding | ||
Morton Bast edited English subtitles for Crop insurance, an idea worth seeding | ||
Morton Bast edited English subtitles for Crop insurance, an idea worth seeding | ||
Madeleine Aronson accepted English subtitles for Crop insurance, an idea worth seeding | ||
Madeleine Aronson edited English subtitles for Crop insurance, an idea worth seeding | ||
Madeleine Aronson edited English subtitles for Crop insurance, an idea worth seeding |