Are droids taking our jobs? | Andrew McAfee | TEDxBoston
-
0:10 - 0:13Last fall, Eric Brynjolfsson and I
published our book -
0:13 - 0:15"Race Against the Machine",
-
0:15 - 0:18and we joined a really lively discussion.
-
0:18 - 0:19Because, as it turns out,
-
0:19 - 0:21when tens of millions
of people are unemployed -
0:21 - 0:23or underemployed,
-
0:23 - 0:26there's a fair amount of interest
in what technology might be doing -
0:26 - 0:27to the labor force.
-
0:27 - 0:29And as I look at the conversation,
-
0:29 - 0:32it strikes me that it's focused
on exactly the right topic, -
0:33 - 0:36and at the same time,
it's missing the point entirely. -
0:36 - 0:37The topic that it's focused on,
-
0:37 - 0:42the question is whether or not all these
digital technologies are affecting -
0:42 - 0:44people's ability to earn a living,
-
0:44 - 0:46or, to say it a little bit different way,
-
0:46 - 0:48are the droids taking our jobs?
-
0:48 - 0:50And there's some evidence that they are.
-
0:50 - 0:54The Great Recession ended
when American GDP resumed -
0:54 - 0:57its kind of slow, steady march upward,
-
0:57 - 1:00and some other economic indicators
also started to rebound, -
1:00 - 1:02and they got kind of healthy
kind of quickly. -
1:02 - 1:05Corporate profits are quite high;
-
1:05 - 1:06in fact, if you include bank profits,
-
1:06 - 1:08they're higher than they've ever been.
-
1:08 - 1:12And business investment
in gear -- in equipment -
1:12 - 1:15and hardware and software --
is at an all-time high. -
1:15 - 1:18So the businesses are getting
out their checkbooks. -
1:18 - 1:20What they're not really doing is hiring.
-
1:21 - 1:22So this red line
-
1:22 - 1:25is the employment-to-population ratio,
-
1:25 - 1:28in other words, the percentage
of working-age people in America -
1:29 - 1:30who have work.
-
1:30 - 1:33And we see that it cratered
during the Great Recession, -
1:33 - 1:36and it hasn't started
to bounce back at all. -
1:36 - 1:39But the story is not
just a recession story. -
1:39 - 1:41The decade that we've
just been through had -
1:41 - 1:44relatively anemic job growth
all throughout, -
1:44 - 1:47especially when we compare it
to other decades, -
1:47 - 1:50and the 2000s are the only time
we have on record -
1:50 - 1:53where there were fewer people working
at the end of the decade -
1:54 - 1:55than at the beginning.
-
1:55 - 1:57This is not what you want to see.
-
1:57 - 2:00When you graph the number
of potential employees -
2:01 - 2:03versus the number of jobs in the country,
-
2:03 - 2:06you see the gap gets bigger
and bigger over time, -
2:07 - 2:10and then, during the Great Recession,
it opened up in a huge way. -
2:10 - 2:12I did some quick calculations.
-
2:12 - 2:14I took the last 20 years of GDP growth
-
2:14 - 2:17and the last 20 years
of labor-productivity growth -
2:18 - 2:20and used those in a fairly
straightforward way -
2:20 - 2:23to try to project how many jobs
the economy was going to need -
2:23 - 2:25to keep growing,
-
2:25 - 2:27and this is the line that I came up with.
-
2:27 - 2:29Is that good or bad?
-
2:29 - 2:30This is the government's projection
-
2:31 - 2:34for the working-age
population going forward. -
2:34 - 2:39So if these predictions are accurate,
that gap is not going to close. -
2:39 - 2:42The problem is, I don't think
these projections are accurate. -
2:42 - 2:45In particular, I think my projection
is way too optimistic, -
2:46 - 2:47because when I did it,
-
2:47 - 2:51I was assuming that the future
was kind of going to look like the past, -
2:51 - 2:53with labor productivity growth,
-
2:53 - 2:55and that's actually not what I believe.
-
2:55 - 2:56Because when I look around,
-
2:56 - 2:58I think that we ain't seen nothing yet
-
2:58 - 3:01when it comes to technology's
impact on the labor force. -
3:02 - 3:06Just in the past couple years,
we've seen digital tools -
3:06 - 3:10display skills and abilities
that they never, ever had before, -
3:10 - 3:14and that kind of eat deeply
into what we human beings -
3:14 - 3:15do for a living.
-
3:15 - 3:17Let me give you a couple examples.
-
3:17 - 3:18Throughout all of history,
-
3:18 - 3:22if you wanted something translated
from one language into another, -
3:22 - 3:24you had to involve a human being.
-
3:24 - 3:27Now we have multi-language, instantaneous,
-
3:27 - 3:31automatic translation services
available for free -
3:32 - 3:35via many of our devices,
all the way down to smartphones. -
3:35 - 3:37And if any of us have used these,
-
3:37 - 3:40we know that they're not perfect,
but they're decent. -
3:41 - 3:44Throughout all of history,
if you wanted something written, -
3:44 - 3:47a report or an article,
you had to involve a person. -
3:48 - 3:49Not anymore.
-
3:49 - 3:52This is an article that appeared
in Forbes online a while back, -
3:52 - 3:53about Apple's earnings.
-
3:53 - 3:55It was written by an algorithm.
-
3:55 - 3:58And it's not decent -- it's perfect.
-
3:59 - 4:01A lot of people look at this and they say,
-
4:01 - 4:04"OK, but those are very
specific, narrow tasks, -
4:04 - 4:06and most knowledge workers
are actually generalists. -
4:06 - 4:10And what they do is sit on top of a very
large body of expertise and knowledge -
4:11 - 4:14and they use that to react on the fly
to kind of unpredictable demands, -
4:14 - 4:16and that's very, very hard to automate."
-
4:17 - 4:20One of the most impressive
knowledge workers in recent memory -
4:20 - 4:22is a guy named Ken Jennings.
-
4:22 - 4:26He won the quiz show
"Jeopardy!" 74 times in a row. -
4:27 - 4:29Took home three million dollars.
-
4:29 - 4:33That's Ken on the right,
getting beat three-to-one -
4:33 - 4:38by Watson, the Jeopardy-playing
supercomputer from IBM. -
4:38 - 4:42So when we look at what technology can do
to general knowledge workers, -
4:42 - 4:45I start to think there might not be
something so special -
4:45 - 4:46about this idea of a generalist,
-
4:46 - 4:50particularly when we start doing things
like hooking Siri up to Watson, -
4:51 - 4:54and having technologies
that can understand what we're saying -
4:54 - 4:56and repeat speech back to us.
-
4:56 - 5:00Now, Siri is far from perfect,
and we can make fun of her flaws, -
5:00 - 5:02but we should also keep in mind
-
5:02 - 5:07that if technologies like Siri and Watson
improve along a Moore's law trajectory, -
5:07 - 5:08which they will,
-
5:09 - 5:12in six years, they're not going to be two
times better or four times better, -
5:12 - 5:15they'll be 16 times better
than they are right now. -
5:16 - 5:19So I start to think a lot of knowledge
work is going to be affected by this. -
5:19 - 5:23And digital technologies are not
just impacting knowledge work, -
5:23 - 5:27they're starting to flex their muscles
in the physical world as well. -
5:27 - 5:31I had the chance a little while back
to ride in the Google autonomous car, -
5:31 - 5:33which is as cool as it sounds.
-
5:33 - 5:35(Laughter)
-
5:35 - 5:40And I will vouch that it handled
the stop-and-go traffic on US 101 -
5:40 - 5:41very smoothly.
-
5:41 - 5:44There are about three and a half million
people who drive trucks for a living -
5:44 - 5:46in the United States;
-
5:46 - 5:49I think some of them are going
to be affected by this technology. -
5:49 - 5:52And right now, humanoid robots
are still incredibly primitive. -
5:52 - 5:54They can't do very much.
-
5:54 - 5:56But they're getting better quite quickly
-
5:56 - 5:59and DARPA, which is the investment arm
of the Defense Department, -
6:00 - 6:02is trying to accelerate their trajectory.
-
6:02 - 6:06So, in short, yeah, the droids
are coming for our jobs. -
6:07 - 6:10In the short term, we can
stimulate job growth -
6:10 - 6:12by encouraging entrepreneurship
-
6:12 - 6:14and by investing in infrastructure,
-
6:14 - 6:18because the robots today
still aren't very good at fixing bridges. -
6:18 - 6:20But in the not-too-long-term,
-
6:20 - 6:23I think within the lifetimes
of most of the people in this room, -
6:24 - 6:27we're going to transition into an economy
that is very productive, -
6:27 - 6:30but that just doesn't need
a lot of human workers. -
6:30 - 6:33And managing that transition
is going to be the greatest challenge -
6:33 - 6:35that our society faces.
-
6:35 - 6:37Voltaire summarized why; he said,
-
6:37 - 6:42"Work saves us from three great evils:
boredom, vice and need." -
6:43 - 6:45But despite this challenge --
-
6:45 - 6:48personally, I'm still
a huge digital optimist, -
6:48 - 6:50and I am supremely confident
-
6:50 - 6:52that the digital technologies
that we're developing now -
6:52 - 6:55are going to take us
into a Utopian future, -
6:55 - 6:57not a dystopian future.
-
6:57 - 6:58And to explain why,
-
6:58 - 7:01I want to pose a ridiculously
broad question. -
7:01 - 7:02I want to ask:
-
7:02 - 7:05what have been the most important
developments in human history? -
7:05 - 7:08Now, I want to share some
of the answers that I've gotten -
7:08 - 7:10in response to this question.
-
7:10 - 7:13It's a wonderful question to ask
and start an endless debate about, -
7:13 - 7:15because some people are going to bring up
-
7:15 - 7:18systems of philosophy
in both the West and the East -
7:18 - 7:21that have changed how a lot
of people think about the world. -
7:21 - 7:23And then other people will say,
-
7:23 - 7:25"No, actually, the big stories,
the big developments -
7:25 - 7:28are the founding
of the world's major religions, -
7:28 - 7:31which have changed civilizations
and have changed and influenced -
7:31 - 7:34how countless people
are living their lives." -
7:34 - 7:36And then some other folk will say,
-
7:36 - 7:38"Actually, what changes civilizations,
-
7:38 - 7:42what modifies them and what changes
people's lives are empires, -
7:43 - 7:45so the great developments in human history
-
7:45 - 7:48are stories of conquest and of war."
-
7:48 - 7:51And then some cheery soul
usually always pipes up and says, -
7:51 - 7:52"Hey, don't forget about plagues!"
-
7:52 - 7:55(Laughter)
-
7:56 - 7:59There are some optimistic
answers to this question, -
7:59 - 8:01so some people will bring up
the Age of Exploration -
8:01 - 8:03and the opening up of the world.
-
8:03 - 8:07Others will talk about intellectual
achievements in disciplines like math -
8:07 - 8:09that have helped us get
a better handle on the world, -
8:09 - 8:13and other folk will talk about periods
when there was a deep flourishing -
8:13 - 8:14of the arts and sciences.
-
8:14 - 8:16So this debate will go on and on.
-
8:16 - 8:17It's an endless debate
-
8:17 - 8:20and there's no conclusive,
single answer to it. -
8:21 - 8:22But if you're a geek like me,
-
8:22 - 8:25you say, "Well, what do the data say?"
-
8:25 - 8:26And you start to do things
-
8:26 - 8:29like graph things
that we might be interested in -- -
8:29 - 8:32the total worldwide
population, for example, -
8:32 - 8:35or some measure of social development
-
8:35 - 8:37or the state of advancement of a society.
-
8:37 - 8:40And you start to plot the data,
because, by this approach, -
8:41 - 8:44the big stories, the big
developments in human history, -
8:44 - 8:46are the ones that will bend
these curves a lot. -
8:46 - 8:49So when you do this
and when you plot the data, -
8:49 - 8:51you pretty quickly come
to some weird conclusions. -
8:51 - 8:53You conclude, actually,
-
8:53 - 8:55that none of these things
have mattered very much. -
8:55 - 8:58(Laughter)
-
8:59 - 9:02They haven't done
a darn thing to the curves. -
9:03 - 9:07There has been one story,
one development in human history -
9:07 - 9:10that bent the curve,
bent it just about 90 degrees, -
9:11 - 9:13and it is a technology story.
-
9:13 - 9:16The steam engine and the other
associated technologies -
9:16 - 9:18of the Industrial Revolution
-
9:18 - 9:21changed the world and influenced
human history so much, -
9:22 - 9:24that in the words
of the historian Ian Morris, -
9:24 - 9:27"... they made mockery out of all
that had come before." -
9:28 - 9:31And they did this by infinitely
multiplying the power of our muscles, -
9:31 - 9:34overcoming the limitations of our muscles.
-
9:34 - 9:36Now, what we're in the middle of now
-
9:36 - 9:39is overcoming the limitations
of our individual brains -
9:39 - 9:42and infinitely multiplying
our mental power. -
9:42 - 9:45How can this not be as big a deal
-
9:45 - 9:48as overcoming the limitations
of our muscles? -
9:48 - 9:51So at the risk of repeating
myself a little bit, -
9:51 - 9:55when I look at what's going on
with digital technology these days, -
9:55 - 9:58we are not anywhere near
through with this journey. -
9:58 - 10:01And when I look at what is happening
to our economies and our societies, -
10:01 - 10:04my single conclusion is that
we ain't seen nothing yet. -
10:05 - 10:06The best days are really ahead.
-
10:06 - 10:08Let me give you a couple examples.
-
10:08 - 10:11Economies don't run on energy.
-
10:11 - 10:14They don't run on capital,
they don't run on labor. -
10:14 - 10:17Economies run on ideas.
-
10:17 - 10:20So the work of innovation,
the work of coming up with new ideas, -
10:20 - 10:24is some of the most powerful, most
fundamental work that we can do -
10:24 - 10:25in an economy.
-
10:25 - 10:28And this is kind of how
we used to do innovation. -
10:28 - 10:31We'd find a bunch of fairly
similar-looking people... -
10:31 - 10:34(Laughter)
-
10:35 - 10:37We'd take them out of elite institutions,
-
10:37 - 10:39we'd put them into other
elite institutions -
10:39 - 10:40and we'd wait for the innovation.
-
10:41 - 10:42Now --
-
10:42 - 10:44(Laughter)
-
10:44 - 10:47as a white guy who spent
his whole career at MIT and Harvard, -
10:48 - 10:50I've got no problem with this.
-
10:50 - 10:52(Laughter)
-
10:53 - 10:55But some other people do,
-
10:55 - 10:56and they've kind of crashed the party
-
10:56 - 10:59and loosened up
the dress code of innovation. -
10:59 - 11:00(Laughter)
-
11:00 - 11:03So here are the winners of a Topcoder
programming challenge, -
11:03 - 11:06and I assure you that nobody cares
-
11:06 - 11:09where these kids grew up,
where they went to school, -
11:09 - 11:11or what they look like.
-
11:11 - 11:15All anyone cares about is the quality
of the work, the quality of the ideas. -
11:15 - 11:17And over and over again,
we see this happening -
11:17 - 11:20in the technology-facilitated world.
-
11:20 - 11:22The work of innovation
is becoming more open, -
11:22 - 11:26more inclusive, more transparent
and more merit-based, -
11:26 - 11:29and that's going to continue no matter
what MIT and Harvard think of it, -
11:29 - 11:32and I couldn't be happier
about that development. -
11:32 - 11:35I hear once in a while,
"OK, I'll grant you that, -
11:35 - 11:38but technology is still a tool
for the rich world, -
11:38 - 11:39and what's not happening,
-
11:39 - 11:42these digital tools are not
improving the lives -
11:42 - 11:44of people at the bottom of the pyramid."
-
11:44 - 11:47And I want to say to that
very clearly: nonsense. -
11:47 - 11:50The bottom of the pyramid is benefiting
hugely from technology. -
11:50 - 11:54The economist Robert Jensen
did this wonderful study a while back -
11:54 - 11:56where he watched, in great detail,
-
11:56 - 11:59what happened to the fishing
villages of Kerala, India, -
11:59 - 12:02when they got mobile phones
for the very first time. -
12:02 - 12:05And when you write for the Quarterly
Journal of Economics, -
12:05 - 12:08you have to use very dry
and very circumspect language. -
12:08 - 12:09But when I read his paper,
-
12:09 - 12:12I kind of feel Jensen
is trying to scream at us -
12:12 - 12:14and say, "Look, this was a big deal.
-
12:14 - 12:17Prices stabilized, so people
could plan their economic lives. -
12:18 - 12:21Waste was not reduced --
it was eliminated. -
12:22 - 12:24And the lives of both
the buyers and the sellers -
12:24 - 12:26in these villages measurably improved."
-
12:27 - 12:31Now, what I don't think
is that Jensen got extremely lucky -
12:31 - 12:33and happened to land
in the one set of villages -
12:33 - 12:35where technology made things better.
-
12:35 - 12:38What happened instead
is he very carefully documented -
12:38 - 12:42what happens over and over again
when technology comes for the first time -
12:42 - 12:44to an environment and a community:
-
12:44 - 12:47the lives of people, the welfares
of people, improve dramatically. -
12:48 - 12:50So as I look around at all the evidence
-
12:50 - 12:52and I think about the room
that we have ahead of us, -
12:52 - 12:54I become a huge digital optimist
-
12:54 - 12:59and I start to think that this wonderful
statement from the physicist Freeman Dyson -
12:59 - 13:00is actually not hyperbole.
-
13:00 - 13:03This is an accurate assessment
of what's going on. -
13:03 - 13:06Our technologies are great gifts,
-
13:06 - 13:09and we, right now,
have the great good fortune -
13:09 - 13:12to be living at a time when
digital technology is flourishing, -
13:12 - 13:16when it is broadening and deepening
and becoming more profound -
13:16 - 13:17all around the world.
-
13:17 - 13:20So, yeah, the droids are taking our jobs,
-
13:20 - 13:23but focusing on that fact
misses the point entirely. -
13:24 - 13:27The point is that then we
are freed up to do other things, -
13:28 - 13:30and what we're going to do,
I am very confident, -
13:30 - 13:32what we're going to do is reduce poverty
-
13:32 - 13:35and drudgery and misery around the world.
-
13:35 - 13:39I'm very confident we're going to learn
to live more lightly on the planet, -
13:39 - 13:42and I am extremely confident
that what we're going to do -
13:42 - 13:44with our new digital tools
-
13:44 - 13:47is going to be so profound
and so beneficial -
13:47 - 13:50that it's going to make a mockery
out of everything that came before. -
13:50 - 13:52I'm going to leave the last word
-
13:52 - 13:55to a guy who had a front-row seat
for digital progress, -
13:55 - 13:56our old friend Ken Jennings.
-
13:56 - 13:58I'm with him; I'm going to echo his words:
-
13:58 - 14:01"I, for one, welcome our new
computer overlords." -
14:01 - 14:02(Laughter)
-
14:03 - 14:04Thanks very much.
-
14:04 - 14:05(Applause)
- Title:
- Are droids taking our jobs? | Andrew McAfee | TEDxBoston
- Description:
-
Robots and algorithms are getting good at jobs like building cars, writing articles, translating -- jobs that once required a human. So what will we humans do for work? Andrew McAfee walks through recent labor data to say: We ain't seen nothing yet. But then he steps back to look at big history, and comes up with a surprising and even thrilling view of what comes next.
This talk was given at a TEDx event using the TED conference format but independently organized by a local community. Learn more at http://ted.com/tedx
- Video Language:
- English
- Team:
- closed TED
- Project:
- TEDxTalks
- Duration:
- 14:09
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