The risky politics of progress
-
0:01 - 0:04The conventional wisdom
about our world today -
0:04 - 0:07is that this is a time
of terrible decline. -
0:08 - 0:12And that's not surprising,
given the bad news all around us, -
0:12 - 0:14from ISIS to inequality,
-
0:14 - 0:16political dysfunction, climate change,
-
0:16 - 0:18Brexit, and on and on.
-
0:20 - 0:23But here's the thing,
and this may sound a little weird. -
0:24 - 0:26I actually don't buy
this gloomy narrative, -
0:27 - 0:29and I don't think you should either.
-
0:29 - 0:31Look, it's not that
I don't see the problems. -
0:31 - 0:33I read the same headlines that you do.
-
0:34 - 0:38What I dispute is the conclusion
that so many people draw from them, -
0:38 - 0:40namely that we're all screwed
-
0:40 - 0:43because the problems are unsolvable
-
0:43 - 0:45and our governments are useless.
-
0:45 - 0:47Now, why do I say this?
-
0:47 - 0:50It's not like I'm particularly
optimistic by nature. -
0:50 - 0:54But something about the media's
constant doom-mongering -
0:54 - 0:58with its fixation on problems
and not on answers -
0:58 - 1:00has always really bugged me.
-
1:00 - 1:02So a few years ago I decided,
-
1:02 - 1:04well, I'm a journalist,
-
1:04 - 1:06I should see if I can do any better
-
1:06 - 1:10by going around the world
and actually asking folks -
1:10 - 1:11if and how they've tackled
-
1:11 - 1:13their big economic
and political challenges. -
1:15 - 1:17And what I found astonished me.
-
1:17 - 1:21It turns out that there are remarkable
signs of progress out there, -
1:22 - 1:25often in the most unexpected places,
-
1:25 - 1:28and they've convinced me
that our great global challenges -
1:28 - 1:31may not be so unsolvable after all.
-
1:31 - 1:34Not only are there theoretical fixes;
-
1:34 - 1:36those fixes have been tried.
-
1:36 - 1:38They've worked.
-
1:38 - 1:40And they offer hope for the rest of us.
-
1:40 - 1:42I'm going to show you what I mean
-
1:42 - 1:45by telling you about
how three of the countries I visited -- -
1:45 - 1:47Canada, Indonesia and Mexico --
-
1:47 - 1:50overcame three supposedly
impossible problems. -
1:51 - 1:55Their stories matter because they contain
tools the rest of us can use, -
1:55 - 1:58and not just for those
particular problems, -
1:58 - 1:59but for many others, too.
-
2:01 - 2:05When most people think
about my homeland, Canada, today, -
2:05 - 2:07if they think about Canada at all,
-
2:07 - 2:11they think cold, they think boring,
they think polite. -
2:11 - 2:14They think we say "sorry" too much
in our funny accents. -
2:15 - 2:16And that's all true.
-
2:16 - 2:18(Laughter)
-
2:18 - 2:19Sorry.
-
2:19 - 2:20(Laughter)
-
2:20 - 2:22But Canada's also important
-
2:23 - 2:25because of its triumph over a problem
-
2:25 - 2:28currently tearing
many other countries apart: -
2:28 - 2:29immigration.
-
2:29 - 2:33Consider, Canada today is among
the world's most welcoming nations, -
2:34 - 2:37even compared to other
immigration-friendly countries. -
2:37 - 2:42Its per capita immigration rate
is four times higher than France's, -
2:42 - 2:44and its percentage
of foreign-born residents -
2:44 - 2:46is double that of Sweden.
-
2:46 - 2:48Meanwhile, Canada admitted
-
2:48 - 2:5210 times more Syrian refugees
in the last year -
2:52 - 2:53than did the United States.
-
2:53 - 2:56(Applause)
-
3:00 - 3:03And now Canada is taking even more.
-
3:03 - 3:05And yet, if you ask Canadians
-
3:05 - 3:07what makes them proudest of their country,
-
3:08 - 3:10they rank "multiculturalism,"
-
3:10 - 3:12a dirty word in most places,
-
3:12 - 3:13second,
-
3:13 - 3:15ahead of hockey.
-
3:16 - 3:17Hockey.
-
3:17 - 3:19(Laughter)
-
3:20 - 3:22In other words,
at a time when other countries -
3:22 - 3:25are now frantically building
new barriers to keep foreigners out, -
3:25 - 3:28Canadians want even more of them in.
-
3:29 - 3:31Now, here's the really interesting part.
-
3:32 - 3:34Canada wasn't always like this.
-
3:34 - 3:39Until the mid-1960s, Canada followed
an explicitly racist immigration policy. -
3:40 - 3:43They called it "White Canada,"
-
3:43 - 3:46and as you can see, they were not
just talking about the snow. -
3:47 - 3:52So how did that Canada
become today's Canada? -
3:53 - 3:56Well, despite what my mom
in Ontario will tell you, -
3:56 - 3:58the answer had nothing to do with virtue.
-
3:58 - 4:01Canadians are not inherently
better than anyone else. -
4:01 - 4:06The real explanation involves the man
who became Canada's leader in 1968, -
4:06 - 4:09Pierre Trudeau, who is also
the father of the current prime minister. -
4:09 - 4:12(Applause)
-
4:13 - 4:15The thing to know about that first Trudeau
-
4:15 - 4:18is that he was very different
from Canada's previous leaders. -
4:18 - 4:22He was a French speaker in a country
long-dominated by its English elite. -
4:22 - 4:24He was an intellectual.
-
4:24 - 4:27He was even kind of groovy.
-
4:27 - 4:30I mean, seriously, the guy did yoga.
-
4:30 - 4:31He hung out with the Beatles.
-
4:31 - 4:32(Laughter)
-
4:32 - 4:35And like all hipsters,
he could be infuriating at times. -
4:37 - 4:38But he nevertheless pulled off
-
4:38 - 4:43one of the most progressive
transformations any country has ever seen. -
4:44 - 4:47His formula, I've learned,
involved two parts. -
4:47 - 4:51First, Canada threw out
its old race-based immigration rules, -
4:51 - 4:54and it replaced them
with new color-blind ones -
4:54 - 4:59that emphasized education,
experience and language skills instead. -
4:59 - 5:01And what that did
was greatly increase the odds -
5:01 - 5:04that newcomers would
contribute to the economy. -
5:05 - 5:08Then part two, Trudeau
created the world's first policy -
5:08 - 5:12of official multiculturalism
to promote integration -
5:12 - 5:17and the idea that diversity
was the key to Canada's identity. -
5:18 - 5:21Now, in the years that followed,
Ottawa kept pushing this message, -
5:21 - 5:24but at the same time, ordinary Canadians
-
5:24 - 5:28soon started to see the economic,
the material benefits of multiculturalism -
5:28 - 5:30all around them.
-
5:30 - 5:32And these two influences soon combined
-
5:32 - 5:36to create the passionately
open-minded Canada of today. -
5:38 - 5:41Let's now turn to another country
and an even tougher problem, -
5:41 - 5:42Islamic extremism.
-
5:43 - 5:47In 1998, the people of Indonesia
took to the streets -
5:47 - 5:50and overthrew
their longtime dictator, Suharto. -
5:50 - 5:53It was an amazing moment,
-
5:53 - 5:54but it was also a scary one.
-
5:54 - 5:56With 250 million people,
-
5:56 - 6:00Indonesia is the largest
Muslim-majority country on Earth. -
6:00 - 6:03It's also hot, huge and unruly,
-
6:03 - 6:06made up of 17,000 islands,
-
6:06 - 6:08where people speak
close to a thousand languages. -
6:09 - 6:11Now, Suharto had been a dictator,
-
6:11 - 6:13and a nasty one.
-
6:13 - 6:16But he'd also been
a pretty effective tyrant, -
6:16 - 6:19and he'd always been careful
to keep religion out of politics. -
6:19 - 6:23So experts feared that without
him keeping a lid on things, -
6:23 - 6:25the country would explode,
-
6:25 - 6:27or religious extremists would take over
-
6:27 - 6:30and turn Indonesia
into a tropical version of Iran. -
6:32 - 6:34And that's just what seemed
to happen at first. -
6:34 - 6:37In the country's
first free elections, in 1999, -
6:37 - 6:41Islamist parties scored
36 percent of the vote, -
6:41 - 6:43and the islands burned
-
6:43 - 6:45as riots and terror attacks
killed thousands. -
6:47 - 6:51Since then, however,
Indonesia has taken a surprising turn. -
6:52 - 6:55While ordinary folks have grown
more pious on a personal level -- -
6:56 - 6:58I saw a lot more headscarves
on a recent visit -
6:58 - 7:00than I would have a decade ago --
-
7:00 - 7:03the country's politics
have moved in the opposite direction. -
7:04 - 7:06Indonesia is now
a pretty decent democracy. -
7:08 - 7:11And yet, its Islamist parties
have steadily lost support, -
7:11 - 7:15from a high of about 38 percent in 2004
-
7:15 - 7:18down to 25 percent in 2014.
-
7:19 - 7:22As for terrorism, it's now extremely rare.
-
7:22 - 7:25And while a few Indonesians
have recently joined ISIS, -
7:25 - 7:27their number is tiny,
-
7:28 - 7:31far fewer in per capita terms
-
7:31 - 7:33than the number of Belgians.
-
7:34 - 7:37Try to think of one other
Muslim-majority country -
7:37 - 7:39that can say all those same things.
-
7:39 - 7:42In 2014, I went to Indonesia
to ask its current president, -
7:42 - 7:46a soft-spoken technocrat
named Joko Widodo, -
7:46 - 7:50"Why is Indonesia thriving when
so many other Muslim states are dying?" -
7:51 - 7:53"Well, what we realized," he told me,
-
7:53 - 7:58"is that to deal with extremism,
we needed to deal with inequality first." -
7:58 - 8:01See, Indonesia's religious parties,
like similar parties elsewhere, -
8:01 - 8:05had tended to focus on things like
reducing poverty and cutting corruption. -
8:06 - 8:09So that's what Joko
and his predecessors did too, -
8:09 - 8:11thereby stealing the Islamists' thunder.
-
8:11 - 8:14They also cracked down hard on terrorism,
-
8:14 - 8:17but Indonesia's democrats
have learned a key lesson -
8:17 - 8:19from the dark years of dictatorship,
-
8:19 - 8:23namely that repression
only creates more extremism. -
8:24 - 8:28So they waged their war
with extraordinary delicacy. -
8:28 - 8:30They used the police instead of the army.
-
8:30 - 8:33They only detained suspects
if they had enough evidence. -
8:33 - 8:35They held public trials.
-
8:35 - 8:37They even sent
liberal imams into the jails -
8:37 - 8:40to persuade the jihadists
that terror is un-Islamic. -
8:41 - 8:44And all of this paid off
in spectacular fashion, -
8:44 - 8:47creating the kind of country
that was unimaginable 20 years ago. -
8:49 - 8:52So at this point,
my optimism should, I hope, -
8:52 - 8:54be starting to make a bit more sense.
-
8:54 - 8:58Neither immigration nor Islamic extremism
are impossible to deal with. -
8:58 - 9:00Join me now on one last trip,
-
9:01 - 9:02this time to Mexico.
-
9:03 - 9:06Now, of our three stories,
this one probably surprised me the most, -
9:06 - 9:08since as you all know,
-
9:08 - 9:11the country is still struggling
with so many problems. -
9:11 - 9:13And yet, a few years ago,
Mexico did something -
9:13 - 9:19that many other countries
from France to India to the United States -
9:19 - 9:20can still only dream of.
-
9:20 - 9:24It shattered the political paralysis
that had gripped it for years. -
9:25 - 9:28To understand how,
we need to rewind to the year 2000, -
9:28 - 9:31when Mexico finally became a democracy.
-
9:31 - 9:35Rather than use their new freedoms
to fight for reform, -
9:35 - 9:38Mexico's politicians used them
to fight one another. -
9:38 - 9:41Congress deadlocked,
and the country's problems -- -
9:41 - 9:44drugs, poverty, crime, corruption --
-
9:44 - 9:46spun out of control.
-
9:46 - 9:49Things got so bad that in 2008,
-
9:49 - 9:52the Pentagon warned
that Mexico risked collapse. -
9:53 - 9:57Then in 2012, this guy
named Enrique Peña Nieto -
9:57 - 9:59somehow got himself elected president.
-
10:00 - 10:04Now, this Peña hardly inspired
much confidence at first. -
10:05 - 10:06Sure, he was handsome,
-
10:07 - 10:11but he came from Mexico's
corrupt old ruling party, the PRI, -
10:11 - 10:14and he was a notorious womanizer.
-
10:15 - 10:18In fact, he seemed
like such a pretty boy lightweight -
10:18 - 10:20that women called him "bombón," sweetie,
-
10:20 - 10:22at campaign rallies.
-
10:23 - 10:27And yet this same bombón
soon surprised everyone -
10:27 - 10:28by hammering out a truce
-
10:28 - 10:31between the country's
three warring political parties. -
10:31 - 10:34And over the next 18 months,
they together passed -
10:34 - 10:37an incredibly comprehensive
set of reforms. -
10:37 - 10:40They busted open Mexico's
smothering monopolies. -
10:40 - 10:43They liberalized
its rusting energy sector. -
10:43 - 10:46They restructured
its failing schools, and much more. -
10:46 - 10:49To appreciate the scale
of this accomplishment, -
10:49 - 10:53try to imagine the US Congress
passing immigration reform, -
10:53 - 10:56campaign finance reform
and banking reform. -
10:56 - 10:59Now, try to imagine Congress
doing it all at the same time. -
11:00 - 11:01That's what Mexico did.
-
11:02 - 11:06Not long ago, I met with Peña
and asked how he managed it all. -
11:06 - 11:09The President flashed me
his famous twinkly smile -- -
11:09 - 11:11(Laughter)
-
11:13 - 11:18and told me that the short answer
was "compromiso," compromise. -
11:18 - 11:19Of course, I pushed him for details,
-
11:19 - 11:22and the long answer
that came out was essentially -
11:22 - 11:25"compromise, compromise
and more compromise." -
11:25 - 11:28See, Peña knew that he needed
to build trust early, -
11:28 - 11:32so he started talking to the opposition
just days after his election. -
11:32 - 11:34To ward off pressure
from special interests, -
11:34 - 11:37he kept their meetings small and secret,
-
11:37 - 11:41and many of the participants
later told me that it was this intimacy, -
11:41 - 11:43plus a lot of shared tequila,
-
11:43 - 11:45that helped build confidence.
-
11:46 - 11:48So did the fact that all decisions
had to be unanimous, -
11:48 - 11:53and that Peña even agreed to pass
some of the other party's priorities -
11:53 - 11:54before his own.
-
11:55 - 11:58As Santiago Creel,
an opposition senator, put it to me, -
11:58 - 12:03"Look, I'm not saying that I'm special
or that anyone is special, -
12:03 - 12:05but that group, that was special."
-
12:06 - 12:07The proof?
-
12:07 - 12:11When Peña was sworn in, the pact held,
-
12:11 - 12:14and Mexico moved forward
for the first time in years. -
12:16 - 12:17Bueno.
-
12:17 - 12:19So now we've seen
how these three countries -
12:19 - 12:22overcame three of their great challenges.
-
12:22 - 12:23And that's very nice for them, right?
-
12:23 - 12:26But what good does it do the rest of us?
-
12:27 - 12:31Well, in the course of studying these
and a bunch of other success stories, -
12:31 - 12:35like the way Rwanda pulled itself
back together after civil war -
12:35 - 12:37or Brazil has reduced inequality,
-
12:38 - 12:41or South Korea has kept its economy
growing faster and for longer -
12:41 - 12:43than any other country on Earth,
-
12:43 - 12:46I've noticed a few common threads.
-
12:46 - 12:49Now, before describing them,
I need to add a caveat. -
12:49 - 12:51I realize, of course,
that all countries are unique. -
12:51 - 12:54So you can't simply
take what worked in one, -
12:54 - 12:57port it to another
and expect it to work there too. -
12:57 - 12:59Nor do specific solutions work forever.
-
12:59 - 13:02You've got to adapt them
as circumstances change. -
13:03 - 13:06That said, by stripping
these stories to their essence, -
13:07 - 13:11you absolutely can distill
a few common tools for problem-solving -
13:11 - 13:14that will work in other countries
-
13:14 - 13:15and in boardrooms
-
13:15 - 13:18and in all sorts of other contexts, too.
-
13:19 - 13:22Number one, embrace the extreme.
-
13:22 - 13:24In all the stories we've just looked at,
-
13:24 - 13:27salvation came at a moment
of existential peril. -
13:28 - 13:30And that was no coincidence.
-
13:30 - 13:34Take Canada: when Trudeau took office,
he faced two looming dangers. -
13:35 - 13:37First, though his vast,
underpopulated country -
13:37 - 13:39badly needed more bodies,
-
13:39 - 13:42its preferred source
for white workers, Europe, -
13:42 - 13:46had just stopped exporting them
as it finally recovered from World War II. -
13:46 - 13:48The other problem was
that Canada's long cold war -
13:48 - 13:51between its French
and its English communities -
13:51 - 13:53had just become a hot one.
-
13:53 - 13:55Quebec was threatening to secede,
-
13:55 - 13:59and Canadians were actually
killing other Canadians over politics. -
13:59 - 14:03Now, countries face
crises all the time. Right? -
14:03 - 14:04That's nothing special.
-
14:05 - 14:09But Trudeau's genius
was to realize that Canada's crisis -
14:09 - 14:12had swept away all the hurdles
that usually block reform. -
14:13 - 14:16Canada had to open up. It had no choice.
-
14:17 - 14:19And it had to rethink its identity.
-
14:19 - 14:21Again, it had no choice.
-
14:21 - 14:24And that gave Trudeau
a once-in-a-generation opportunity -
14:24 - 14:27to break the old rules and write new ones.
-
14:27 - 14:31And like all our other heroes,
he was smart enough to seize it. -
14:32 - 14:35Number two, there's power
in promiscuous thinking. -
14:36 - 14:39Another striking similarity
among good problem-solvers -
14:39 - 14:41is that they're all pragmatists.
-
14:41 - 14:44They'll steal the best answers
from wherever they find them, -
14:44 - 14:46and they don't let details
-
14:46 - 14:51like party or ideology
or sentimentality get in their way. -
14:51 - 14:54As I mentioned earlier,
Indonesia's democrats were clever enough -
14:54 - 14:59to steal many of the Islamists'
best campaign promises for themselves. -
14:59 - 15:03They even invited some of the radicals
into their governing coalition. -
15:03 - 15:07Now, that horrified
a lot of secular Indonesians. -
15:08 - 15:13But by forcing the radicals
to actually help govern, -
15:13 - 15:17it quickly exposed the fact
that they weren't any good at the job, -
15:17 - 15:20and it got them mixed up
in all of the grubby compromises -
15:20 - 15:23and petty humiliations
that are part of everyday politics. -
15:23 - 15:26And that hurt their image so badly
that they've never recovered. -
15:27 - 15:29Number three,
-
15:29 - 15:31please all of the people some of the time.
-
15:32 - 15:37I know I just mentioned how crises
can grant leaders extraordinary freedoms. -
15:37 - 15:41And that's true, but problem-solving
often requires more than just boldness. -
15:41 - 15:44It takes showing restraint, too,
-
15:44 - 15:47just when that's
the last thing you want to do. -
15:47 - 15:49Take Trudeau: when he took office,
-
15:49 - 15:51he could easily have put
his core constituency, -
15:51 - 15:54that is Canada's French community, first.
-
15:54 - 15:57He could have pleased
some of the people all of the time. -
15:58 - 16:01And Peña could have used his power
to keep attacking the opposition, -
16:01 - 16:03as was traditional in Mexico.
-
16:03 - 16:06Yet he chose to embrace
his enemies instead, -
16:06 - 16:09while forcing his own party to compromise.
-
16:09 - 16:13And Trudeau pushed everyone
to stop thinking in tribal terms -
16:13 - 16:18and to see multiculturalism,
not language and not skin color, -
16:18 - 16:20as what made them
quintessentially Canadian. -
16:21 - 16:23Nobody got everything they wanted,
-
16:23 - 16:27but everyone got just enough
that the bargains held. -
16:29 - 16:31So at this point you may be thinking,
-
16:31 - 16:32"OK, Tepperman,
-
16:32 - 16:35if the fixes really are out there
like you keep insisting, -
16:35 - 16:38then why aren't more countries
already using them?" -
16:39 - 16:41It's not like they require
special powers to pull off. -
16:41 - 16:45I mean, none of the leaders
we've just looked at were superheroes. -
16:45 - 16:47They didn't accomplish
anything on their own, -
16:47 - 16:49and they all had plenty of flaws.
-
16:49 - 16:52Take Indonesia's
first democratic president, -
16:52 - 16:53Abdurrahman Wahid.
-
16:53 - 16:57This man was so powerfully uncharismatic
-
16:57 - 16:59that he once fell asleep
-
16:59 - 17:00in the middle of his own speech.
-
17:00 - 17:02(Laughter)
-
17:02 - 17:03True story.
-
17:08 - 17:12So what this tells us
is that the real obstacle is not ability, -
17:12 - 17:13and it's not circumstances.
-
17:14 - 17:16It's something much simpler.
-
17:16 - 17:20Making big changes
involves taking big risks, -
17:20 - 17:22and taking big risks is scary.
-
17:22 - 17:26Overcoming that fear requires guts,
-
17:26 - 17:27and as you all know,
-
17:27 - 17:30gutsy politicians are painfully rare.
-
17:31 - 17:33But that doesn't mean we voters
-
17:33 - 17:36can't demand courage
from our political leaders. -
17:36 - 17:39I mean, that's why we put them
in office in the first place. -
17:40 - 17:43And given the state of the world today,
there's really no other option. -
17:44 - 17:47The answers are out there,
-
17:47 - 17:49but now it's up to us
-
17:49 - 17:52to elect more women and men
-
17:52 - 17:54brave enough to find them,
-
17:54 - 17:55to steal them
-
17:55 - 17:57and to make them work.
-
17:57 - 17:58Thank you.
-
17:58 - 18:04(Applause)
- Title:
- The risky politics of progress
- Speaker:
- Jonathan Tepperman
- Description:
-
Global problems such as terrorism, inequality and political dysfunction aren't easy to solve, but that doesn't mean we should stop trying. In fact, suggests journalist Jonathan Tepperman, we might even want to think riskier. He traveled the world to ask global leaders how they're tackling hard problems -- and unearthed surprisingly hopeful stories that he's distilled into three tools for problem-solving.
- Video Language:
- English
- Team:
- closed TED
- Project:
- TEDTalks
- Duration:
- 18:16
Brian Greene edited English subtitles for The risky politics of progress | ||
Brian Greene edited English subtitles for The risky politics of progress | ||
Brian Greene approved English subtitles for The risky politics of progress | ||
Brian Greene edited English subtitles for The risky politics of progress | ||
Brian Greene edited English subtitles for The risky politics of progress | ||
Brian Greene edited English subtitles for The risky politics of progress | ||
Joanna Pietrulewicz accepted English subtitles for The risky politics of progress | ||
Joanna Pietrulewicz edited English subtitles for The risky politics of progress |