A 30-year history of the future
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0:01 - 0:03(Video) Nicholas Negroponte:
Can we switch to the video disc, -
0:03 - 0:05which is in play mode?
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0:05 - 0:10I'm really interested in how you put people and computers together.
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0:10 - 0:14We will be using the TV screens or their equivalents
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0:14 - 0:18for electronic books of the future.
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0:18 - 0:22(Music, crosstalk)
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0:38 - 0:40Very interested in touch-sensitive displays,
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0:40 - 0:45high-tech, high-touch, not having
to pick up your fingers to use them. -
0:45 - 0:46There is another way where computers
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0:46 - 0:49touch people: wearing, physically wearing.
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0:57 - 0:59Suddenly on September 11th,
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0:59 - 1:01the world got bigger.
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1:01 - 1:04NN: Thank you. (Applause)
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1:04 - 1:06Thank you.
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1:06 - 1:08When I was asked to do this,
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1:08 - 1:13I was also asked to look at all 14 TED Talks
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1:13 - 1:14that I had given,
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1:14 - 1:16chronologically.
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1:16 - 1:18The first one was actually two hours.
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1:18 - 1:20The second one was an hour,
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1:20 - 1:21and then they became half hours,
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1:21 - 1:25and all I noticed was my bald spot getting bigger.
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1:25 - 1:27(Laughter)
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1:27 - 1:31Imagine seeing your life, 30 years of it, go by,
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1:31 - 1:35and it was, to say the least,
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1:35 - 1:39for me, quite a shocking experience.
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1:39 - 1:41So what I'm going to do in my time
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1:41 - 1:42is try and share with you what happened
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1:42 - 1:44during the 30 years,
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1:44 - 1:46and then also make a prediction,
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1:46 - 1:48and then tell you a little bit
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1:48 - 1:51about what I'm doing next.
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1:51 - 1:54And I put on a slide
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1:54 - 1:58where TED 1 happened in my life.
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1:58 - 2:00And it's rather important
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2:00 - 2:04because I had done 15 years of research before it,
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2:04 - 2:07so I had a backlog, so it was easy.
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2:07 - 2:08It's not that I was Fidel Castro
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2:08 - 2:10and I could talk for two hours,
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2:10 - 2:11or Bucky Fuller.
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2:11 - 2:13I had 15 years of stuff,
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2:13 - 2:16and the Media Lab was about to start.
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2:16 - 2:18So that was easy.
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2:18 - 2:20But there are a couple of things
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2:20 - 2:22about that period
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2:22 - 2:24and about what happened that are
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2:24 - 2:26really quite important.
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2:26 - 2:28One is that
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2:28 - 2:31it was a period when computers
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2:31 - 2:34weren't yet for people.
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2:34 - 2:37And the other thing that sort of happened
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2:37 - 2:40during that time is that
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2:40 - 2:44we were considered sissy computer scientists.
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2:44 - 2:45We weren't considered the real thing.
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2:45 - 2:49So what I'm going to show you is, in retrospect,
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2:49 - 2:52a lot more interesting and a lot more accepted
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2:52 - 2:54than it was at the time.
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2:54 - 2:56So I'm going to characterize the years
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2:56 - 2:58and I'm even going to go back
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2:58 - 3:00to some very early work of mine,
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3:00 - 3:03and this was the kind of stuff I was doing in the '60s:
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3:03 - 3:05very direct manipulation,
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3:05 - 3:08very influenced as I studied architecture
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3:08 - 3:10by the architect Moshe Safdie,
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3:10 - 3:13and you can see that we even built robotic things
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3:13 - 3:16that could build habitat-like structures.
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3:16 - 3:17And this for me was
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3:17 - 3:19not yet the Media Lab,
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3:19 - 3:22but was the beginning of what I'll call
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3:22 - 3:23sensory computing,
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3:23 - 3:25and I pick fingers
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3:25 - 3:30partly because everybody thought it was ridiculous.
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3:30 - 3:32Papers were published
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3:32 - 3:36about how stupid it was to use fingers.
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3:36 - 3:39Three reasons: One was they were low-resolution.
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3:39 - 3:41The other is your hand would occlude
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3:41 - 3:42what you wanted to see,
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3:42 - 3:44and the third, which was the winner,
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3:44 - 3:48was that your fingers would get the screen dirty,
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3:48 - 3:50and hence, fingers would never be
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3:50 - 3:52a device that you'd use.
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3:52 - 3:55And this was a device we built in the '70s,
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3:55 - 3:57which has never even been picked up.
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3:57 - 3:58It's not just touch sensitive,
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3:58 - 4:00it's pressure sensitive.
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4:00 - 4:02(Video) Voice: Put a yellow circle there.
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4:02 - 4:06NN: Later work, and again this was before TED 1 —
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4:06 - 4:08(Video) Voice: Move that west of the diamond.
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4:08 - 4:12Create a large green circle there.
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4:12 - 4:14Man: Aw, shit.
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4:14 - 4:17NN: — was to sort of do interface concurrently,
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4:17 - 4:19so when you talked and you pointed
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4:19 - 4:22and you had, if you will,
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4:22 - 4:24multiple channels.
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4:24 - 4:26Entebbe happened.
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4:26 - 4:301976, Air France was hijacked,
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4:30 - 4:31taken to Entebbe,
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4:31 - 4:36and the Israelis not only did an extraordinary rescue,
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4:36 - 4:38they did it partly because they had practiced
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4:38 - 4:41on a physical model of the airport,
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4:41 - 4:42because they had built the airport,
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4:42 - 4:43so they built a model in the desert,
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4:43 - 4:45and when they arrived at Entebbe,
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4:45 - 4:48they knew where to go because
they had actually been there. -
4:48 - 4:51The U.S. government asked some of us, '76,
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4:51 - 4:54if we could replicate that computationally,
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4:54 - 4:56and of course somebody like myself says yes.
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4:56 - 4:58Immediately, you get a contract,
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4:58 - 5:00Department of Defense,
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5:00 - 5:02and we built this truck and this rig.
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5:02 - 5:05We did sort of a simulation,
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5:05 - 5:07because you had video discs,
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5:07 - 5:09and again, this is '76.
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5:09 - 5:12And then many years later,
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5:12 - 5:13you get this truck,
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5:13 - 5:16and so you have Google Maps.
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5:16 - 5:18Still people thought,
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5:18 - 5:22no, that was not serious computer science,
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5:22 - 5:24and it was a man named Jerry Wiesner,
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5:24 - 5:26who happened to be the president of MIT,
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5:26 - 5:29who did think it was computer science.
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5:29 - 5:31And one of the keys for anybody
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5:31 - 5:35who wants to start something in life:
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5:35 - 5:38Make sure your president is part of it.
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5:38 - 5:41So when I was doing the Media Lab,
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5:41 - 5:44it was like having a gorilla in the front seat.
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5:44 - 5:46If you were stopped for speeding
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5:46 - 5:49and the officer looked in the window
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5:49 - 5:51and saw who was in the passenger seat,
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5:51 - 5:52then, "Oh, continue on, sir."
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5:52 - 5:54And so we were able,
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5:54 - 5:58and this is a cute, actually, device, parenthetically.
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5:58 - 6:01This was a lenticular photograph of Jerry Wiesner
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6:01 - 6:03where the only thing that changed in the photograph
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6:03 - 6:05were the lips.
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6:05 - 6:08So when you oscillated that little piece
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6:08 - 6:11of lenticular sheet with his photograph,
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6:11 - 6:13it would be in lip sync
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6:13 - 6:15with zero bandwidth.
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6:15 - 6:18It was a zero-bandwidth teleconferencing system
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6:18 - 6:20at the time.
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6:20 - 6:24So this was the Media Lab's —
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6:24 - 6:25this is what we said we'd do,
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6:25 - 6:28that the world of computers, publishing,
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6:28 - 6:31and so on would come together.
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6:31 - 6:33Again, not generally accepted,
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6:33 - 6:38but very much part of TED in the early days.
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6:38 - 6:41And this is really where we were headed.
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6:41 - 6:43And that created the Media Lab.
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6:43 - 6:47One of the things about age
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6:47 - 6:51is that I can tell you with great confidence,
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6:51 - 6:54I've been to the future.
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6:54 - 6:57I've been there, actually, many times.
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6:57 - 6:58And the reason I say that is,
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6:58 - 7:01how many times in my life have I said,
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7:01 - 7:03"Oh, in 10 years, this will happen,"
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7:03 - 7:05and then 10 years comes.
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7:05 - 7:06And then you say, "Oh, in
five years, this will happen." -
7:06 - 7:08And then five years comes.
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7:08 - 7:12So I say this a little bit with having felt
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7:12 - 7:14that I'd been there a number of times,
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7:14 - 7:18and one of the things that is most quoted
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7:18 - 7:19that I've ever said
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7:19 - 7:21is that computing is not about computers,
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7:21 - 7:25and that didn't quite get enough traction,
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7:25 - 7:26and then it started to.
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7:26 - 7:30It started to because people caught on
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7:30 - 7:33that the medium wasn't the message.
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7:33 - 7:36And the reason I show this car
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7:36 - 7:38in actually a rather ugly slide
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7:38 - 7:41is just again to tell you the kind of story
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7:41 - 7:44that characterized a little bit of my life.
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7:44 - 7:46This is a student of mine
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7:46 - 7:49who had done a Ph.D. called "Backseat Driver."
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7:49 - 7:51It was in the early days of GPS,
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7:51 - 7:53the car knew where it was,
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7:53 - 7:55and it would give audio instructions
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7:55 - 7:58to the driver, when to turn right,
when to turn left and so on. -
7:58 - 8:00Turns out, there are a lot of things
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8:00 - 8:03in those instructions that back in that period
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8:03 - 8:04were pretty challenging,
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8:04 - 8:07like what does it mean, take the next right?
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8:07 - 8:09Well, if you're coming up on a street,
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8:09 - 8:11the next right's probably the one after,
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8:11 - 8:13and there are lots of issues,
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8:13 - 8:15and the student did a wonderful thesis,
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8:15 - 8:20and the MIT patent office said "Don't patent it.
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8:20 - 8:22It'll never be accepted.
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8:22 - 8:24The liabilities are too large.
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8:24 - 8:25There will be insurance issues.
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8:25 - 8:27Don't patent it."
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8:27 - 8:28So we didn't,
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8:28 - 8:32but it shows you how people, again, at times,
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8:32 - 8:36don't really look at what's happening.
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8:36 - 8:39Some work, and I'll just go
through these very quickly, -
8:39 - 8:40a lot of sensory stuff.
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8:40 - 8:43You might recognize a young Yo-Yo Ma
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8:43 - 8:47and tracking his body for playing
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8:47 - 8:49the cello or the hypercello.
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8:49 - 8:53These fellows literally walked
around like that at the time. -
8:53 - 8:56It's now a little bit more discreet
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8:56 - 8:58and more commonplace.
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8:58 - 9:00And then there are at least three heroes
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9:00 - 9:01I want to quickly mention.
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9:01 - 9:04Marvin Minsky, who taught me a lot
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9:04 - 9:05about common sense,
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9:05 - 9:09and I will talk briefly about Muriel Cooper,
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9:09 - 9:11who was very important to Ricky Wurman
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9:11 - 9:15and to TED, and in fact, when she got onstage,
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9:15 - 9:17she said, the first thing she said was,
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9:17 - 9:19"I introduced Ricky to Nicky."
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9:19 - 9:21And nobody calls me Nicky
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9:21 - 9:22and nobody calls Richard Ricky,
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9:22 - 9:26so nobody knew who she was talking about.
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9:26 - 9:28And then, of course, Seymour Papert,
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9:28 - 9:30who is the person who said,
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9:30 - 9:31"You can't think about thinking
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9:31 - 9:34unless you think about thinking about something."
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9:34 - 9:39And that's actually — you can unpack that later.
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9:39 - 9:43It's a pretty profound statement.
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9:43 - 9:45I'm showing some slides
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9:45 - 9:47that were from TED 2,
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9:47 - 9:51a little silly as slides, perhaps.
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9:51 - 9:56Then I felt television really was about displays.
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9:56 - 9:59Again, now we're past TED 1,
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9:59 - 10:02but just around the time of TED 2,
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10:02 - 10:05and what I'd like to mention here is,
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10:05 - 10:07even though you could imagine
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10:07 - 10:09intelligence in the device,
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10:09 - 10:10I look today at some of the work
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10:10 - 10:13being done about the Internet of Things,
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10:13 - 10:15and I think it's kind of tragically pathetic,
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10:15 - 10:18because what has happened is people take
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10:18 - 10:21the oven panel and put it on your cell phone,
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10:21 - 10:23or the door key onto your cell phone,
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10:23 - 10:25just taking it and bringing it to you,
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10:25 - 10:28and in fact that's actually what you don't want.
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10:28 - 10:30You want to put a chicken in the oven,
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10:30 - 10:32and the oven says, "Aha, it's a chicken,"
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10:32 - 10:34and it cooks the chicken.
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10:34 - 10:35"Oh, it's cooking the chicken for Nicholas,
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10:35 - 10:37and he likes it this way and that way."
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10:37 - 10:40So the intelligence, instead of being in the device,
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10:40 - 10:42we have started today
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10:42 - 10:44to move it back onto the cell phone
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10:44 - 10:46or closer to the user,
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10:46 - 10:49not a particularly enlightened view
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10:49 - 10:51of the Internet of Things.
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10:51 - 10:55Television, again, television what I said today,
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10:55 - 10:57that was back in 1990,
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10:57 - 10:59and the television of tomorrow
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10:59 - 11:01would look something like that.
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11:01 - 11:05Again, people, but they laughed cynically,
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11:05 - 11:10they didn't laugh with much appreciation.
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11:10 - 11:13Telecommunications in the 1990s,
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11:13 - 11:18George Gilder decided that he would call this diagram
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11:18 - 11:21the Negroponte switch.
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11:21 - 11:23I'm probably much less famous than George,
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11:23 - 11:26so when he called it the Negroponte switch, it stuck,
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11:26 - 11:29but the idea of things that came in the ground
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11:29 - 11:31would go in the air and stuff in the air
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11:31 - 11:32would go into the ground
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11:32 - 11:34has played itself out.
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11:34 - 11:39That is the original slide from that year,
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11:39 - 11:42and it has worked in lockstep obedience.
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11:42 - 11:44We started Wired magazine.
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11:44 - 11:48Some people, I remember we shared
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11:48 - 11:51the reception desk periodically,
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11:51 - 11:55and some parent called up irate that his son
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11:55 - 11:57had given up Sports Illustrated
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11:57 - 11:59to subscribe for Wired,
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11:59 - 12:02and he said, "Are you some
porno magazine or something?" -
12:02 - 12:05and couldn't understand why his son
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12:05 - 12:09would be interested in Wired, at any rate.
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12:09 - 12:11I will go through this a little quicker.
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12:11 - 12:15This is my favorite, 1995,
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12:15 - 12:18back page of Newsweek magazine.
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12:18 - 12:20Okay. Read it. (Laughter)
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12:20 - 12:22["Nicholas Negroponte, director of the MIT Media Lab, predicts that we'll soon buy books and newspapers straight over the Internet. Uh, sure."
—Clifford Stoll, Newsweek, 1995] -
12:22 - 12:23You must admit that gives you,
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12:23 - 12:26at least it gives me pleasure
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12:26 - 12:29when somebody says how dead wrong you are.
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12:29 - 12:32"Being Digital" came out.
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12:32 - 12:34For me, it gave me an opportunity
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12:34 - 12:36to be more in the trade press
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12:36 - 12:40and get this out to the public,
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12:40 - 12:43and it also allowed us to build the new Media Lab,
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12:43 - 12:45which if you haven't been to, visit,
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12:45 - 12:48because it's a beautiful piece of architecture
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12:48 - 12:50aside from being a wonderful place to work.
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12:50 - 12:53So these are the things we were saying in those TEDs.
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12:53 - 12:55[Today, multimedia is a desktop or living room experience, because the apparatus is so clunky. This will change dramatically with small, bright, thin, high-resolution displays. — 1995]
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12:55 - 12:56We came to them.
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12:56 - 12:58I looked forward to it every year.
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12:58 - 13:01It was the party that Ricky Wurman never had
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13:01 - 13:04in the sense that he invited many of his old friends,
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13:04 - 13:06including myself.
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13:06 - 13:08And then something for me changed
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13:08 - 13:10pretty profoundly.
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13:10 - 13:14I became more involved with computers and learning
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13:14 - 13:16and influenced by Seymour,
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13:16 - 13:19but particularly looking at learning
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13:19 - 13:23as something that is best approximated
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13:23 - 13:24by computer programming.
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13:24 - 13:26When you write a computer program,
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13:26 - 13:29you've got to not just list things out
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13:29 - 13:31and sort of take an algorithm
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13:31 - 13:34and translate it into a set of instructions,
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13:34 - 13:36but when there's a bug, and all programs have bugs,
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13:36 - 13:38you've got to de-bug it.
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13:38 - 13:40You've got to go in, change it,
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13:40 - 13:42and then re-execute,
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13:42 - 13:44and you iterate,
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13:44 - 13:47and that iteration is really
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13:47 - 13:49a very, very good approximation of learning.
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13:49 - 13:53So that led to my own work with Seymour
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13:53 - 13:55in places like Cambodia
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13:55 - 13:58and the starting of One Laptop per Child.
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13:58 - 14:01Enough TED Talks on One Laptop per Child,
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14:01 - 14:03so I'll go through it very fast,
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14:03 - 14:07but it did give us the chance
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14:07 - 14:10to do something at a relatively large scale
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14:10 - 14:14in the area of learning, development and computing.
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14:14 - 14:17Very few people know that One Laptop per Child
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14:17 - 14:20was a $1 billion project,
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14:20 - 14:22and it was, at least over the seven years I ran it,
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14:22 - 14:25but even more important, the World Bank
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14:25 - 14:28contributed zero, USAID zero.
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14:28 - 14:32It was mostly the countries
using their own treasuries, -
14:32 - 14:33which is very interesting,
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14:33 - 14:35at least to me it was very interesting
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14:35 - 14:38in terms of what I plan to do next.
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14:38 - 14:41So these are the various places it happened.
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14:41 - 14:44I then tried an experiment,
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14:44 - 14:48and the experiment happened in Ethiopia.
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14:48 - 14:51And here's the experiment.
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14:51 - 14:52The experiment is,
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14:52 - 14:56can learning happen where there are no schools.
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14:56 - 14:59And we dropped off tablets
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14:59 - 15:01with no instructions
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15:01 - 15:04and let the children figure it out.
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15:04 - 15:08And in a short period of time,
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15:08 - 15:10they not only
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15:10 - 15:13turned them on and were using 50 apps per child
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15:13 - 15:15within five days,
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15:15 - 15:18they were singing "ABC" songs within two weeks,
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15:18 - 15:22but they hacked Android within six months.
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15:22 - 15:26And so that seemed sufficiently interesting.
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15:26 - 15:28This is perhaps the best picture I have.
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15:28 - 15:32The kid on your right
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15:32 - 15:35has sort of nominated himself as teacher.
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15:35 - 15:37Look at the kid on the left, and so on.
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15:37 - 15:40There are no adults involved in this at all.
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15:40 - 15:42So I said, well can we do this
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15:42 - 15:43at a larger scale?
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15:43 - 15:46And what is it that's missing?
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15:46 - 15:48The kids are giving a press conference at this point,
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15:48 - 15:51and sort of writing in the dirt.
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15:51 - 15:54And the answer is, what is missing?
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15:54 - 15:57And I'm going to skip over my prediction, actually,
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15:57 - 15:58because I'm running out of time,
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15:58 - 16:02and here's the question, is what's going to happen?
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16:02 - 16:04I think the challenge
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16:04 - 16:06is to connect the last billion people,
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16:06 - 16:09and connecting the last billion
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16:09 - 16:13is very different than connecting the next billion,
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16:13 - 16:14and the reason it's different
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16:14 - 16:16is that the next billion
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16:16 - 16:18are sort of low-hanging fruit,
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16:18 - 16:21but the last billion are rural.
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16:21 - 16:25Being rural and being poor
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16:25 - 16:26are very different.
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16:26 - 16:30Poverty tends to be created by our society,
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16:30 - 16:35and the people in that community are not poor
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16:35 - 16:37in the same way at all.
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16:37 - 16:38They may be primitive,
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16:38 - 16:42but the way to approach it and to connect them,
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16:42 - 16:45the history of One Laptop per Child,
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16:45 - 16:49and the experiment in Ethiopia,
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16:49 - 16:52lead me to believe that we can in fact
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16:52 - 16:55do this in a very short period of time.
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16:55 - 16:57And so my plan,
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16:57 - 16:59and unfortunately I haven't been able
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16:59 - 17:02to get my partners at this point
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17:02 - 17:03to let me announce them,
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17:03 - 17:08but is to do this with a stationary satellite.
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17:08 - 17:10There are many reasons
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17:10 - 17:15that stationary satellites aren't the best things,
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17:15 - 17:18but there are a lot of reasons why they are,
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17:18 - 17:21and for two billion dollars,
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17:21 - 17:24you can connect a lot more than 100 million people,
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17:24 - 17:27but the reason I picked two,
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17:27 - 17:31and I will leave this as my last slide,
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17:31 - 17:32is two billion dollars
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17:32 - 17:35is what we were spending
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17:35 - 17:37in Afghanistan
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17:37 - 17:39every week.
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17:39 - 17:43So surely if we can connect
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17:43 - 17:45Africa and the last billion people
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17:45 - 17:47for numbers like that,
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17:47 - 17:48we should be doing it.
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17:48 - 17:50Thank you very much.
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17:50 - 17:54(Applause)
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17:54 - 17:58Chris Anderson: Stay up there. Stay up there.
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17:58 - 18:00NN: You're going to give me extra time?
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18:00 - 18:03CA: No. That was wickedly clever, wickedly clever.
-
18:03 - 18:05You gamed it beautifully.
-
18:05 - 18:07Nicholas, what is your prediction?
-
18:07 - 18:09(Laughter)
-
18:09 - 18:12NN: Thank you for asking.
-
18:12 - 18:14I'll tell you what my prediction is,
-
18:14 - 18:17and my prediction, and this is a prediction,
-
18:17 - 18:20because it'll be 30 years. I won't be here.
-
18:20 - 18:24But one of the things about learning how to read,
-
18:24 - 18:27we have been doing a lot of consuming
-
18:27 - 18:30of information going through our eyes,
-
18:30 - 18:33and so that may be a very inefficient channel.
-
18:33 - 18:38So my prediction is that we are
going to ingest information -
18:38 - 18:41You're going to swallow a pill and know English.
-
18:41 - 18:44You're going to swallow a
pill and know Shakespeare. -
18:44 - 18:46And the way to do it is through the bloodstream.
-
18:46 - 18:48So once it's in your bloodstream,
-
18:48 - 18:50it basically goes through it and gets into the brain,
-
18:50 - 18:53and when it knows that it's in the brain
-
18:53 - 18:54in the different pieces,
-
18:54 - 18:56it deposits it in the right places.
-
18:56 - 18:58So it's ingesting.
-
18:58 - 19:00CA: Have you been hanging out
with Ray Kurzweil by any chance? -
19:00 - 19:04NN: No, but I've been hanging
around with Ed Boyden -
19:04 - 19:05and hanging around with one of the speakers
-
19:05 - 19:07who is here, Hugh Herr,
-
19:07 - 19:09and there are a number of people.
-
19:09 - 19:11This isn't quite as far-fetched,
-
19:11 - 19:13so 30 years from now.
-
19:13 - 19:15CA: We will check it out.
-
19:15 - 19:17We're going to be back and we're going
to play this clip 30 years from now, -
19:17 - 19:21and then all eat the red pill.
-
19:21 - 19:23Well thank you for that.
-
19:23 - 19:24Nicholas Negroponte.
-
19:24 - 19:26NN: Thank you.
-
19:26 - 19:26(Applause)
- Title:
- A 30-year history of the future
- Speaker:
- Nicholas Negroponte
- Description:
-
MIT Media Lab founder Nicholas Negroponte takes you on a journey through the last 30 years of tech. The consummate predictor highlights interfaces and innovations he foresaw in the 1970s and 1980s that were scoffed at then but are ubiquitous today. And he leaves you with one last (absurd? brilliant?) prediction for the coming 30 years.
- Video Language:
- English
- Team:
- closed TED
- Project:
- TEDTalks
- Duration:
- 19:43
Morton Bast edited English subtitles for A 30-year history of the future | ||
Morton Bast edited English subtitles for A 30-year history of the future | ||
Morton Bast edited English subtitles for A 30-year history of the future | ||
Morton Bast edited English subtitles for A 30-year history of the future | ||
Morton Bast approved English subtitles for A 30-year history of the future | ||
Madeleine Aronson accepted English subtitles for A 30-year history of the future | ||
Madeleine Aronson edited English subtitles for A 30-year history of the future | ||
Madeleine Aronson edited English subtitles for A 30-year history of the future |