Why we need to imagine different futures
-
0:01 - 0:04I visit the future for a living.
-
0:04 - 0:06Not just one future,
-
0:06 - 0:08but many possible futures,
-
0:08 - 0:12bringing back evidences from those futures
for you to experience today. -
0:13 - 0:15Like an archaeologist of the future.
-
0:16 - 0:19Over the years, my many journeys
have brought back things -
0:19 - 0:22like a new species
of synthetically engineered bees; -
0:25 - 0:27a book named, "Pets as Protein;"
-
0:28 - 0:31a machine that makes you rich
by trading your genetic data; -
0:31 - 0:33a lamp powered by sugar;
-
0:34 - 0:36a computer for growing food.
-
0:37 - 0:41OK, so I don't actually travel
to different futures -- yet. -
0:41 - 0:44But my husband Jon and I spend
a lot of time thinking -
0:44 - 0:48and creating visions
of different futures in our studio. -
0:48 - 0:51We are constantly looking out
for weak signals, -
0:51 - 0:53those murmurs of future potential.
-
0:53 - 0:57Then we trace those threads of potential
out into the future, asking: -
0:58 - 1:00What might it feel like
to live in this future? -
1:01 - 1:04What might we see, hear and even breathe?
-
1:05 - 1:10Then we run experiments,
build prototypes, make objects, -
1:10 - 1:12bringing aspects of these futures to life,
-
1:12 - 1:14making them concrete and tangible
-
1:14 - 1:19so you can really feel the impact
of those future possibilities -
1:19 - 1:20here and now.
-
1:21 - 1:24But this work is not about predictions.
-
1:24 - 1:26It's about creating tools --
-
1:26 - 1:29tools that can help connect
our present and our future selves -
1:29 - 1:34so we become active participants
in creating a future we want -- -
1:34 - 1:36a future that works for all.
-
1:37 - 1:39So how do we go about doing this?
-
1:39 - 1:42For a recent project called Drone Aviary,
-
1:43 - 1:44we were interested in exploring
-
1:44 - 1:47what it would mean to live
with drones in our cities. -
1:47 - 1:50Drones that have the power
to see things we can't, -
1:50 - 1:52to go places we can't
-
1:52 - 1:54and to do so with increasing autonomy.
-
1:55 - 1:56But to understand the technology,
-
1:56 - 1:58getting our hands dirty was crucial.
-
1:59 - 2:01So we built several different
drones in our studio. -
2:02 - 2:05We gave them names, functions
and then flew them -- -
2:05 - 2:07but not without difficulty.
-
2:07 - 2:09Things came loose,
-
2:09 - 2:10GPS signals glitched
-
2:10 - 2:12and drones crashed.
-
2:13 - 2:15But it was through such experimentation
-
2:15 - 2:19that we could construct a very
concrete and very experiential slice -
2:19 - 2:21of one possible future.
-
2:22 - 2:24So now, let's go to that future.
-
2:24 - 2:28Let's imagine we are living in a city
with drones like this one. -
2:28 - 2:30We call it The Nightwatchman.
-
2:31 - 2:35It patrols the streets, often spotted
in the evenings and at night. -
2:35 - 2:39Initially, many of us were annoyed
by its low, dull hum. -
2:39 - 2:42But then, like everything else,
we got used to it. -
2:42 - 2:45Now, what if you could see
the world through its eyes? -
2:47 - 2:51See how it constantly logs
every resident of our neighborhood; -
2:51 - 2:54logging the kids who play football
in the no-ballgame area -
2:54 - 2:57and marking them as statutory nuisances.
-
2:57 - 2:58(Laughter)
-
2:58 - 3:02And then see how it disperses
this other group, who are teenagers, -
3:02 - 3:05with the threat of an autonomously
issued injunction. -
3:06 - 3:10And then there's this giant
floating disc called Madison. -
3:10 - 3:12Its glaring presence is so overpowering,
-
3:12 - 3:15I can't help but stare at it.
-
3:15 - 3:17But if feels like each time I look at it,
-
3:17 - 3:19it knows a little more about me --
-
3:20 - 3:23like it keeps flashing all these
Brianair adverts at me, -
3:23 - 3:25as if it knows about
the holiday I'm planning. -
3:26 - 3:30I'm not sure if I find this
mildly entertaining -
3:30 - 3:32or just entirely invasive.
-
3:34 - 3:35Back to the present.
-
3:36 - 3:38In creating this future, we learned a lot.
-
3:38 - 3:41Not just about how these machines work,
-
3:41 - 3:44but what it would feel like
to live alongside them. -
3:44 - 3:46Whilst drones like Madison
and Nightwatchman, -
3:47 - 3:48in these particular forms,
-
3:48 - 3:50are not real yet,
-
3:50 - 3:54most elements of a drone future
are in fact very real today. -
3:54 - 3:55For instance,
-
3:55 - 3:58facial recognition systems
are everywhere -- -
3:58 - 4:00in our phones, even in our thermostats
-
4:00 - 4:02and in cameras around our cities --
-
4:03 - 4:05keeping a record of everything we do,
-
4:05 - 4:10whether it's an advertisement
we glanced at or a protest we attended. -
4:10 - 4:11These things are here,
-
4:11 - 4:14and we often don't understand
how they work, -
4:14 - 4:16and what their consequences could be.
-
4:17 - 4:19And we see this all around us.
-
4:19 - 4:21This difficulty in even imagining
-
4:21 - 4:25how the consequences of our actions
today will affect our future. -
4:26 - 4:29Last year, where I live, in the UK,
there was a referendum -
4:29 - 4:31where the people could vote
for the UK to leave the EU -
4:31 - 4:32or stay in the EU,
-
4:32 - 4:34popularly known as "Brexit."
-
4:35 - 4:37And soon after the results came out,
-
4:37 - 4:40a word began to surface
called "Bregret" -- -
4:40 - 4:41(Laughter)
-
4:41 - 4:44describing people who chose to vote
for Brexit as a protest, -
4:44 - 4:47but without thinking through
its potential consequences. -
4:49 - 4:53And this disconnect is evident
in some of the simplest things. -
4:54 - 4:56Say you go out for a quick drink.
-
4:56 - 4:58Then you decide
you wouldn't mind a few more. -
4:58 - 5:01You know you'll wake up
in the morning feeling awful, -
5:01 - 5:02but you justify it by saying,
-
5:02 - 5:05"The other me in the future
will deal with that." -
5:06 - 5:07But as we find out in the morning,
-
5:07 - 5:09that future "you" is you.
-
5:10 - 5:14When I was growing up in India
in the late '70s and early '80s, -
5:14 - 5:15there was a feeling
-
5:15 - 5:18that the future both needed to
and could actually be planned. -
5:18 - 5:22I remember my parents had to plan
for some of the simplest things. -
5:22 - 5:24When they wanted a telephone in our house,
-
5:24 - 5:26they needed to order it and then wait --
-
5:26 - 5:29wait for nearly five years before
it got installed in our house. -
5:29 - 5:30(Laughter)
-
5:30 - 5:34And then if they wanted to call
my grandparents who lived in another city, -
5:34 - 5:36they needed to book
something called a "trunk call," -
5:36 - 5:39and then wait again,
for hours or even days. -
5:39 - 5:42And then abruptly, the phone
would ring at two in the morning, -
5:42 - 5:46and all of us would jump out of our beds
and gather round the phone, -
5:46 - 5:48shrieking into it,
discussing general well-being -
5:48 - 5:49at two in the morning.
-
5:49 - 5:53Today it can feel like things
are happening too fast -- -
5:53 - 5:55so fast, that it can
become really difficult -
5:55 - 5:58for us to form an understanding
of our place in history. -
5:58 - 6:02It creates an overwhelming sense
of uncertainty and anxiety, -
6:02 - 6:05and so, we let the future
just happen to us. -
6:06 - 6:08We don't connect with that future "us."
-
6:09 - 6:11We treat our future selves as a stranger,
-
6:11 - 6:13and the future as a foreign land.
-
6:14 - 6:15It's not a foreign land;
-
6:15 - 6:17it's unfolding right in front of us,
-
6:17 - 6:19continually being shaped
by our actions today. -
6:20 - 6:21We are that future,
-
6:22 - 6:25and so I believe fighting
for a future we want -
6:25 - 6:27is more urgent and necessary
than ever before. -
6:28 - 6:30We have learned in our work
-
6:30 - 6:33that one of the most powerful means
of effecting change -
6:33 - 6:37is when people can directly, tangibly
and emotionally experience -
6:37 - 6:40some of the future consequences
of their actions today. -
6:41 - 6:45Earlier this year, the government
of the United Arab Emirates invited us -
6:45 - 6:48to help them shape
their country's energy strategy -
6:48 - 6:49all the way up to 2050.
-
6:50 - 6:54Based on the government's econometric
data, we created this large city model, -
6:54 - 6:57and visualized many
possible futures on it. -
6:58 - 7:02As I was excitably taking a group
of government officials -
7:02 - 7:03and members of energy companies
-
7:03 - 7:06through one sustainable
future on our model, -
7:06 - 7:08one of the participants told me,
-
7:08 - 7:11"I cannot imagine that in the future
people will stop driving cars -
7:11 - 7:13and start using public transport."
-
7:14 - 7:15And then he said,
-
7:15 - 7:19"There's no way I can tell my own son
to stop driving his car." -
7:20 - 7:22But we were prepared for this reaction.
-
7:23 - 7:27Working with scientists in a chemistry lab
in my home city in India, -
7:27 - 7:29we had created approximate samples
-
7:29 - 7:34of what the air would be like in 2030
if our behavior stays the same. -
7:34 - 7:38And so, I walked the group
over to this object -
7:38 - 7:40that emits vapor from those air samples.
-
7:41 - 7:45Just one whiff of the noxious
polluted air from 2030 -
7:45 - 7:48brought home the point
that no amount of data can. -
7:49 - 7:52This is not the future you would want
your children to inherit. -
7:53 - 7:55The next day, the government
made a big announcement. -
7:55 - 7:58They would be investing billions
of dollars in renewables. -
7:58 - 8:03We don't know what part our future
experiences played in this decision, -
8:03 - 8:05but we know that they've changed
their energy policy -
8:05 - 8:07to mitigate such a scenario.
-
8:07 - 8:10While something like air from the future
is very effective and tangible, -
8:10 - 8:13the trajectory from our present
to a future consequence -
8:13 - 8:15is not always so linear.
-
8:15 - 8:19Even when a technology
is developed with utopian ideals, -
8:19 - 8:21the moment it leaves the laboratory
and enters the world, -
8:21 - 8:25it is subject to forces outside
of the creators' control. -
8:26 - 8:30For one particular project,
we investigated medical genomics: -
8:30 - 8:33the technology of gathering
and using people's genetic data -
8:33 - 8:35to create personalized medicine.
-
8:35 - 8:37We were asking:
-
8:37 - 8:40What are some of the unintended
consequences of linking our genetics -
8:40 - 8:42to health care?
-
8:43 - 8:45To explore this question further,
-
8:45 - 8:47we created a fictional lawsuit,
-
8:48 - 8:52and brought it to life through 31 pieces
of carefully crafted evidence. -
8:53 - 8:56So we built an illegal genetic clinic,
-
8:56 - 8:59a DIY carbon dioxide incubator,
-
8:59 - 9:01and even bought frozen mice on eBay.
-
9:02 - 9:05So now let's go to that future
where this lawsuit is unfolding, -
9:05 - 9:08and meet the defendant, Arnold Mann.
-
9:08 - 9:12Arnold is being prosecuted
by this global giant biotech company -
9:12 - 9:13called Dynamic Genetics,
-
9:14 - 9:15because they have evidence
-
9:15 - 9:20that Arnold has illegally inserted
the company's patented genetic material -
9:20 - 9:21into his body.
-
9:21 - 9:24How on earth did Arnold manage to do that?
-
9:25 - 9:26Well, it all started
-
9:26 - 9:30when Arnold was asked to submit
a saliva sample in this spit kit -
9:30 - 9:32to the NHI --
-
9:32 - 9:35the UK's National Health
Insurance service. -
9:35 - 9:38When Arnold received
his health insurance bill, -
9:38 - 9:40he was shocked and scared
-
9:40 - 9:42to see that his premiums
had gone through the roof, -
9:42 - 9:45beyond anything he or his family
could ever afford. -
9:46 - 9:49The state's algorithm had scanned
his genetic data -
9:49 - 9:53and found the risk of a chronic health
condition lurking in his DNA. -
9:53 - 9:56And so Arnold had to start paying
toward the potential costs -
9:57 - 9:58of that future disease --
-
9:58 - 10:00potential future disease from today.
-
10:00 - 10:02In that moment of fear and panic,
-
10:02 - 10:04Arnold slipped through the city
-
10:04 - 10:07into the dark shadows
of this illegal clinic for treatment -- -
10:07 - 10:10a treatment that would modify his DNA
-
10:10 - 10:13so that the state's algorithm
would no longer see him as a risk, -
10:13 - 10:16and his insurance premiums
would become affordable again. -
10:16 - 10:18But Arnold was caught.
-
10:18 - 10:22And the legal proceedings in the case
Dynamic Genetics v. Mann began. -
10:23 - 10:25In bringing such a future to life,
-
10:25 - 10:28what was important to us
was that people could actually touch, -
10:28 - 10:29see and feel its potential,
-
10:30 - 10:33because such an immediate and close
encounter provokes people -
10:33 - 10:34to ask the right questions,
-
10:35 - 10:36questions like:
-
10:36 - 10:38What are the implications
of living in a world -
10:38 - 10:40where I'm judged on my genetics?
-
10:41 - 10:44Or: Who might claim ownership
to my genetic data, -
10:44 - 10:46and what might they do with it?
-
10:47 - 10:50If this feels even slightly
out-there or farfetched, -
10:50 - 10:54today there's a little-known bill
being passed through the American congress -
10:54 - 10:58known as HR 1313, Preserving
Employee Wellness Programs Act. -
10:58 - 11:03This bill proposes to amend the Genetic
Information Nondiscrimination Act, -
11:03 - 11:05popularly known as GINA,
-
11:05 - 11:08and would allow employers to ask
about family medical history -
11:08 - 11:09and genetic data
-
11:09 - 11:12to all employees for the first time.
-
11:13 - 11:16Those who refuse
would face large penalties. -
11:17 - 11:19In the work I've shown so far,
-
11:19 - 11:21whether it was drones or genetic crimes,
-
11:21 - 11:24these stories describe troubling futures
-
11:24 - 11:26with the intention of helping us
avoid those futures. -
11:27 - 11:29But what about what we can't avoid?
-
11:30 - 11:32Today, especially with climate change,
-
11:32 - 11:34it looks like we are heading for trouble.
-
11:34 - 11:37And so what we want to do now
is to prepare for that future -
11:37 - 11:42by developing tools and attitudes
that can help us find hope -- -
11:42 - 11:44hope that can inspire action.
-
11:45 - 11:48Currently, we are running
an experiment in our studio. -
11:48 - 11:49It's a work in progress.
-
11:50 - 11:52Based on climate data projections,
-
11:52 - 11:53we are exploring a future
-
11:53 - 11:57where the Western world has moved
from abundance to scarcity. -
11:57 - 12:00We imagine living in a future city
with repeated flooding, -
12:00 - 12:03periods with almost
no food in supermarkets, -
12:03 - 12:05economic instabilities,
-
12:05 - 12:06broken supply chains.
-
12:07 - 12:11What can we do to not just survive,
but prosper in such a world? -
12:12 - 12:13What food can we eat?
-
12:14 - 12:16To really step inside these questions,
-
12:16 - 12:20we are building this room in a flat
in London from 2050. -
12:21 - 12:24It's like a little time capsule
that we reclaimed from the future. -
12:24 - 12:26We stripped it down to the bare minimum.
-
12:26 - 12:28Everything we lovingly put in our homes,
-
12:28 - 12:30like flat-panel TVs,
-
12:30 - 12:32internet-connected fridges
-
12:32 - 12:33and artisanal furnishings
-
12:33 - 12:34all had to go.
-
12:34 - 12:37And in its place,
we're building food computers -
12:37 - 12:40from abandoned, salvaged
and repurposed materials, -
12:41 - 12:43turning today's waste
into tomorrow's dinner. -
12:45 - 12:46For instance,
-
12:46 - 12:50we've just finished building our first
fully automated fogponics machine. -
12:50 - 12:53It uses the technique of fogponics --
so just fog as a nutrient, -
12:53 - 12:55not even water or soil --
-
12:55 - 12:56to grow things quickly.
-
12:57 - 12:59At the moment,
-
12:59 - 13:00we have successfully grown tomatoes.
-
13:01 - 13:04But we'll need more food than what
we can grow in this small room. -
13:05 - 13:07So what else could we forage
from the city? -
13:08 - 13:11Insects? Pigeons? Foxes?
-
13:14 - 13:16Earlier, we brought back
air from the future. -
13:16 - 13:19This time we are bringing
an entire room from the future, -
13:19 - 13:21a room full of hope, tools and tactics
-
13:22 - 13:25to create positive action
in hostile conditions. -
13:25 - 13:27Spending time in this room,
-
13:27 - 13:29a room that could be our own future home,
-
13:29 - 13:33makes the consequences
of climate change and food insecurity -
13:33 - 13:35much more immediate and tangible.
-
13:37 - 13:40What we're learning through such
experiments and our practice -
13:40 - 13:42and the people we engage with
-
13:42 - 13:44is that creating concrete experiences
-
13:44 - 13:47can bridge the disconnect
between today and tomorrow. -
13:48 - 13:51By putting ourselves
into different possible futures, -
13:51 - 13:52by becoming open and willing
-
13:52 - 13:57to embrace the uncertainty and discomfort
that such an act can bring, -
13:57 - 14:00we have the opportunity
to imagine new possibilities. -
14:00 - 14:02We can find optimistic futures;
-
14:02 - 14:04we can find paths forward;
-
14:04 - 14:06we can move beyond hope into action.
-
14:07 - 14:10It means we have the chance
to change direction, -
14:11 - 14:13a chance to have our voices heard,
-
14:14 - 14:18a chance to write ourselves
into a future we want. -
14:20 - 14:22Other worlds are possible.
-
14:22 - 14:24Thank you.
-
14:24 - 14:27(Applause)
- Title:
- Why we need to imagine different futures
- Speaker:
- Anab Jain
- Description:
-
Anab Jain brings the future to life, creating experiences where people can touch, see and feel the potential of the world we're creating. Do we want a world where intelligent machines patrol our streets, for instance, or where our genetic heritage determines our health care? Jain's projects show why it's important to fight for a world we want. Catch a glimpse of possible futures in this eye-opening talk.
- Video Language:
- English
- Team:
- closed TED
- Project:
- TEDTalks
- Duration:
- 14:41
Brian Greene edited English subtitles for Why we need to imagine different futures | ||
Brian Greene approved English subtitles for Why we need to imagine different futures | ||
Brian Greene edited English subtitles for Why we need to imagine different futures | ||
Camille Martínez accepted English subtitles for Why we need to imagine different futures | ||
Camille Martínez edited English subtitles for Why we need to imagine different futures | ||
Camille Martínez edited English subtitles for Why we need to imagine different futures | ||
Leslie Gauthier edited English subtitles for Why we need to imagine different futures | ||
Leslie Gauthier edited English subtitles for Why we need to imagine different futures |