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What I hope to do in this video is to explore the relationship
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between oil and gas prices, and you do see that there is
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a very strong correlation between how they trend.
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This right over here is oil prices quoted at a specific point on the planet
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This is dependent on where you are and as you can see this is
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in US dollars per barrel. In early 2008 around $100
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It went up to about $140 then came back down
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and then it's been trending up ever since, now it's about $100 per barrel
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this is where we see the oil prices on a per barrel basis
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And then related to that you see the gas of gasoline
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this is even more geographically specific because not only do you have
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transportation costs but you also have very
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region specific taxation for oil and sometimes
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regulation but taxation is the big part of it
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but you do see that it trends up when oil prices
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trend up, and then it goes down and this is on
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a per gallon basis and these are the prices right
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over here in New York. But they don't move competely
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locked up, if anything you can see that the oil price on a per
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barrel basis is much more volatile than the gasoline
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prices right over here but there is the same
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general trend, when the oil prices moves up
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this tends to move up but it's not always in the same
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percentage but there's definitely a relationship.
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Now, before trying to figure out when you pay, say
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$4 at the pump how much up that is oil and how much
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is refining and how much is transportation
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Let's at least kind of build up to that
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to think about how does the oil even end up in your
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car, then we can build up that price of the oil.
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Or, the price of the gasoline I should say.
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This right over here, you're probably familiar with these,
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these are oil rigs, two very different types: this
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This is an offshore oil rig, this is a land based oil rig
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but they're both doing the same fundamental thing:
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they're drilling into the ground until they get to a pocket of oil
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and then they will pump that oil out
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and try to transport it to the market somehow, first
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going through a refinery. Offshore is really fast and it
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really is an engineering marvel how they do it
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It might be sitting out here in the ocean and it will
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literally go to the bottom of the ocean, go to the sea
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floor and then drill from there to actually get to the
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oil pockets so it's really an engineering marvel
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and you have to be very careful, it can be very dangerous
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working on an oil rig and obviously if there's an accident
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it can be an environmental nightmare like we saw
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with the BP situation but it is undoubtedly an
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engineering marvel. Now, once you have that oil you need
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to get it to a refinery so that the oil can be
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broken up into its useful parts, and the way it
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is typically transported to a refinery is some combination
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of a pipeline or an oil tanker, this right over here is actually
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the Alaskan pipeline, it takes oil from the very northern part
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of Alaska to the southern part so that it can then be
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put onto oil tankers which can then transport it anywhere
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in the world to refineries. It could go straight to a tanker
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actually in some offshore places you could use a tanker or sometimes if they're
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close enough to land they actually might have a pipeline
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that will take it to land where it can go to a refinery
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or go to an oil tanker so that it can be transported
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even farther. And then from there it gets to a refinery
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So we can start to think about how the price of oil is built up
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before we even think about what a refinery
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even does. So let's say that the current price of oil
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and I kind of rigged the numbers, to work out fairly well
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But let's say the current price of oil is $90 per barrel.
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So a barrel (this is just a units thing) is equal
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to 42 gallons. So if I say I have a barrel of water
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I'm really saying that I have 42 gallons of water.
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And now all 42 gallons of crude oil do not turn into
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42 gallons of gasoline, out of 42 gallons
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of crude oil you can get about 19 or 20 gallons of
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gasoline, to make the numbers easy I'll just go with 20.
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And then the rest will be other stuff, so 22 gallons of other stuff
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It might not even be 22 gallons, some of it will just be
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waste, some of it will be by-products some of it is actually
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used to fuel the refining process.
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I won't write that number, the rest is "other stuff."
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So let's say, this refinery is paying $90 per barrel
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when it gets it, so that incorporates what the oil procuders
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are getting, and it also takes care of the transportation
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costs to the refinery, and let's say jsut for the sake
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of argument that the refinery can sell
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Let's say that it doesn't even take care of the transportation
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network, let's say there are people willing to buy directly
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from the refinery at the refinery, they are willing to buy
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gasoline at $3.25 per gallon, so the gas at refinery,
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people are willing to spend, the transporters are willing to pay them
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$3.25 per gallon, and so from this barrel they're going
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to get 20 gallons of gasoline, they can sell that
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at $3.25 per gallon so you're going to have
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20 * 3.25 = $65 for the gasoline
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And then let's just say, for the sake of argument,
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they get $35 for the other stuff
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Some of this other stuff is actually quite useful, it's stuff like
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motor oil, it could be jet fuel, it could be natural gas
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All sorts of... and it can obviously be fuel to actually fuel
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the refinery, and so let's actually start building this up over here
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so one way to think about it, let me draw it this way
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so the price we're up to $3.25, this is what the price is
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exiting the refinery, what the refinery is getting for it.
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So, let's say this is one dollar, this is two dollars,
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and this is three dollars, and they're getting $3.25
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$3.25 would be like that, that is what the
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refinery is getting and one way to think about it
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It's not completely... not all of their profit is coming from the gasoline
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But one way to think about it is the refinery, after refining
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all of this barrel of crude oil that they paid $90 for,
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they're going to get $65 for the gasoline and then
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they're going to get $35 for the other stuff
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so they made a combination of $100. They were able to buy
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crude oil at $90, do what they had to do, and then
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they were able to sell it for $100, so one way to think
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about it, at least in this situation, 90% of what they were
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getting for it is their cost, it breaks down between
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the other stuff and the gasoline, so it's not super easy to break
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down, but you can say in this example a good chunk
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of it was the cost of gasoline. And it obviously depends how
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you account for it but a good chunk of it is the cost of
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the crude, and this right over here you could say is
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how much the refinery actually makes and that the amount
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it actually gets versus what it costs, so the amount
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they actually get for the product they produced versus the crude oil
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that they had to pay for, this margin is often called
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the crack spread. Just to understand what a refinery
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is doing, it's breaking up the crude oil into its various parts
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It's actually a very simple, well I don't want to say "simple process"
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When you look at a refinery you obviously don't think it's a
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simple thing, but the idea for the process is actually
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fairly straightforward, it takes the crude oil
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and it heats it up through a boiler, so right over here
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the crude is getting really hot. This is the boiler,
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the boiler is often fueled by some of the outputs of
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that oil, and then it goes into a distillation column.
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That's why you see all the towers over here in an oil refinery
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Those are the distillation columns, and so in the
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distillation columns the different parts of the oil have
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different boiling temperatures. So the very long
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carbon chains in the oil have very high boiling
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temperatures, so as hot as they are they're not
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going to boil, they're going to stay in their liquid form
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down here, and then the slightly shorter chains are
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going to boil and evaporate a little bit but
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then as they rise they're going to cool down and
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then they might condense right over here and they can
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be pulled away in pipes, and then things that have
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slightly shorter chains than that will go a little bit higher
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before cooling to even lower temperatures before going
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back into a liquid state, and they can be collected
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over here... all the way until you get to the very
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shortest chains, like the natural gas, that would be
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collected out of the top. The gasoline that you put
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in your car might be collected right over here from this
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So essentially you're breaking up that oil into
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its different parts. As for some of the different parts..
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this might be motor oil over here, the thing you use to
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lubricate, not fuel, your engine. You might have
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jet fuel up here, then you have a whole ton of different
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fuels, this might be kerosene, and all sorts of things...
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you are able to take out of that crude oil.
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But anyway, let's get back to the gasoline.
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So the refinery got $3.25, now we have to
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transport that gasoline, so let's say 10 cents for
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transportation. This is at about $3.25 here, so now
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we're going to have 10 cents for transportation
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I'll just write transportation for short.
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And then it goes to the gas station, and as I mentioned
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gas is heavily heavily taxed and it depends on what jurisdiction
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what country or even states within countries
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but for the sake of simplicity let's just say that
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it's taxed at about 50 cents a gallon, which is not that
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different from what it's taxed at in many states.
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So now we're at 50 cents a gallon so that would be
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right around... this is tax right over here going
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to the state and federal government, so let's see
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$3.25 is what the refinery got, 10 cents for transportation gets
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us to $3.35, 50 cents for tax gets us up to $3.85
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and then now we're at the gas station, it'll essentially
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cost $3.85 for the fuel, but the gas station
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needs to make some money to pay their costs
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so the gas station sells you that fuel at a $4 per gallon
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So you might say, hey! they gas station made 15 cents
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But actually a huge amount of that 15 cents goes to the
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credit card processors because most people
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pay at the pump with their credit cards, so that's why
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some gas stations like it, even give you a discount when
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you pay in cash because of that 15 cents, as much as
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or in general about 5 cents of that will go
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to the credit card fees. So the retailer will be
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left with about 10 cents of margin.
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So anyway, hopefully that gives you a sense of how
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crude oil turns into gasoline, and when you pay at the pump
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what is the breakdown for the different players
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and how much of the money is going to those different
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players.