[Script Info]
Title: 
[Events]
Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text
Dialogue: 0,0:00:00.60,0:00:02.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Growth is not dead.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:02.88,0:00:04.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Applause)
Dialogue: 0,0:00:04.26,0:00:08.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Let's start the story 120 years ago,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:08.23,0:00:11.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when American factories began to electrify their operations,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:11.86,0:00:15.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,igniting the Second Industrial Revolution.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:15.20,0:00:16.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The amazing thing is
Dialogue: 0,0:00:16.31,0:00:19.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that productivity did not increase in those factories
Dialogue: 0,0:00:19.09,0:00:22.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for 30 years. Thirty years.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:22.35,0:00:25.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's long enough for a generation of managers to retire.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:25.82,0:00:28.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You see, the first wave of managers
Dialogue: 0,0:00:28.04,0:00:31.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,simply replaced their steam engines with electric motors,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:31.46,0:00:34.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but they didn't redesign the factories to take advantage
Dialogue: 0,0:00:34.47,0:00:36.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of electricity's flexibility.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:36.81,0:00:40.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It fell to the next generation to invent new work processes,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:40.79,0:00:43.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then productivity soared,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:43.52,0:00:47.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,often doubling or even tripling in those factories.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:47.19,0:00:51.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Electricity is an example of a general purpose technology,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:51.91,0:00:54.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,like the steam engine before it.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:54.14,0:00:57.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,General purpose technologies drive most economic growth,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:57.56,0:01:01.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because they unleash cascades of complementary innovations,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:01.01,0:01:04.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,like lightbulbs and, yes, factory redesign.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:04.64,0:01:08.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Is there a general purpose technology of our era?
Dialogue: 0,0:01:08.25,0:01:10.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Sure. It's the computer.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:10.76,0:01:13.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But technology alone is not enough.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:13.42,0:01:16.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Technology is not destiny.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:16.18,0:01:17.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We shape our destiny,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:17.76,0:01:20.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and just as the earlier generations of managers
Dialogue: 0,0:01:20.28,0:01:22.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,needed to redesign their factories,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:22.58,0:01:24.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we're going to need to reinvent our organizations
Dialogue: 0,0:01:24.81,0:01:27.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and even our whole economic system.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:27.36,0:01:30.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We're not doing as well at that job as we should be.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:30.96,0:01:32.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,As we'll see in a moment,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:32.19,0:01:34.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,productivity is actually doing all right,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:34.92,0:01:38.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but it has become decoupled from jobs,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:38.78,0:01:43.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the income of the typical worker is stagnating.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:43.20,0:01:45.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,These troubles are sometimes misdiagnosed
Dialogue: 0,0:01:45.72,0:01:49.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as the end of innovation,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:49.43,0:01:51.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but they are actually the growing pains
Dialogue: 0,0:01:51.56,0:01:57.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of what Andrew McAfee and I call the new machine age.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:57.15,0:01:59.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Let's look at some data.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:59.03,0:02:01.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So here's GDP per person in America.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:01.93,0:02:04.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There's some bumps along the way, but the big story
Dialogue: 0,0:02:04.70,0:02:07.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is you could practically fit a ruler to it.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:07.41,0:02:10.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is a log scale, so what looks like steady growth
Dialogue: 0,0:02:10.69,0:02:13.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is actually an acceleration in real terms.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:13.73,0:02:15.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And here's productivity.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:15.89,0:02:18.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You can see a little bit of a slowdown there in the mid-'70s,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:18.56,0:02:22.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but it matches up pretty well with the Second Industrial Revolution,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:22.30,0:02:24.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when factories were learning how to electrify their operations.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:24.99,0:02:29.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,After a lag, productivity accelerated again.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:29.12,0:02:31.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So maybe "history doesn't repeat itself,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:31.69,0:02:34.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but sometimes it rhymes."
Dialogue: 0,0:02:34.26,0:02:37.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Today, productivity is at an all-time high,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:37.40,0:02:39.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and despite the Great Recession,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:39.37,0:02:43.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it grew faster in the 2000s than it did in the 1990s,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:43.62,0:02:47.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the roaring 1990s, and that was faster than the '70s or '80s.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:47.76,0:02:51.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's growing faster than it did during the Second Industrial Revolution.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:51.43,0:02:53.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And that's just the United States.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:53.18,0:02:56.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The global news is even better.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:56.42,0:02:58.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Worldwide incomes have grown at a faster rate
Dialogue: 0,0:02:58.78,0:03:01.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the past decade than ever in history.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:01.28,0:03:06.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If anything, all these numbers actually understate our progress,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:06.33,0:03:08.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because the new machine age
Dialogue: 0,0:03:08.24,0:03:09.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is more about knowledge creation
Dialogue: 0,0:03:09.91,0:03:12.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,than just physical production.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:12.24,0:03:15.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's mind not matter, brain not brawn,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:15.18,0:03:17.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,ideas not things.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:17.24,0:03:19.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That creates a problem for standard metrics,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:19.81,0:03:23.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because we're getting more and more stuff for free,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:23.31,0:03:25.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,like Wikipedia, Google, Skype,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:25.95,0:03:29.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and if they post it on the web, even this TED Talk.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:29.02,0:03:32.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now getting stuff for free is a good thing, right?
Dialogue: 0,0:03:32.32,0:03:34.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Sure, of course it is.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:34.08,0:03:37.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But that's not how economists measure GDP.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:37.95,0:03:43.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Zero price means zero weight in the GDP statistics.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:43.54,0:03:45.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,According to the numbers, the music industry
Dialogue: 0,0:03:45.66,0:03:48.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is half the size that it was 10 years ago,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:48.66,0:03:52.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but I'm listening to more and better music than ever.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:52.31,0:03:54.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You know, I bet you are too.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:54.50,0:03:57.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In total, my research estimates
Dialogue: 0,0:03:57.23,0:04:01.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that the GDP numbers miss over 300 billion dollars per year
Dialogue: 0,0:04:01.98,0:04:05.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in free goods and services on the Internet.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:05.33,0:04:07.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now let's look to the future.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:07.12,0:04:09.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There are some super smart people
Dialogue: 0,0:04:09.38,0:04:14.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who are arguing that we've reached the end of growth,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:14.40,0:04:17.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but to understand the future of growth,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:17.96,0:04:20.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we need to make predictions
Dialogue: 0,0:04:20.64,0:04:23.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about the underlying drivers of growth.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:23.93,0:04:27.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'm optimistic, because the new machine age
Dialogue: 0,0:04:27.73,0:04:32.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is digital, exponential and combinatorial.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:32.76,0:04:35.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When goods are digital, they can be replicated
Dialogue: 0,0:04:35.03,0:04:39.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with perfect quality at nearly zero cost,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:39.54,0:04:43.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they can be delivered almost instantaneously.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:43.56,0:04:46.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Welcome to the economics of abundance.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:46.36,0:04:50.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But there's a subtler benefit to the digitization of the world.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:50.04,0:04:54.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Measurement is the lifeblood of science and progress.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:54.64,0:04:56.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In the age of big data,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:56.79,0:05:01.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we can measure the world in ways we never could before.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:01.08,0:05:05.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Secondly, the new machine age is exponential.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:05.17,0:05:11.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Computers get better faster than anything else ever.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:11.11,0:05:14.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,A child's Playstation today is more powerful
Dialogue: 0,0:05:14.68,0:05:18.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,than a military supercomputer from 1996.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:18.73,0:05:21.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But our brains are wired for a linear world.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:21.94,0:05:25.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,As a result, exponential trends take us by surprise.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:25.83,0:05:28.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I used to teach my students that there are some things,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:28.43,0:05:30.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you know, computers just aren't good at,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:30.36,0:05:32.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,like driving a car through traffic.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:32.75,0:05:34.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:05:34.76,0:05:38.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's right, here's Andy and me grinning like madmen
Dialogue: 0,0:05:38.25,0:05:40.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because we just rode down Route 101
Dialogue: 0,0:05:40.64,0:05:44.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in, yes, a driverless car.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:44.31,0:05:46.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Thirdly, the new machine age is combinatorial.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:46.89,0:05:50.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The stagnationist view is that ideas get used up,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:50.94,0:05:52.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,like low-hanging fruit,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:52.79,0:05:55.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but the reality is that each innovation
Dialogue: 0,0:05:55.96,0:05:59.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,creates building blocks for even more innovations.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:59.21,0:06:02.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Here's an example. In just a matter of a few weeks,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:02.56,0:06:04.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,an undergraduate student of mine
Dialogue: 0,0:06:04.63,0:06:08.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,built an app that ultimately reached 1.3 million users.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:08.74,0:06:10.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,He was able to do that so easily
Dialogue: 0,0:06:10.44,0:06:12.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because he built it on top of Facebook,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:12.27,0:06:14.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and Facebook was built on top of the web,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:14.20,0:06:15.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that was built on top of the Internet,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:15.90,0:06:18.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and so on and so forth.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:18.32,0:06:23.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now individually, digital, exponential and combinatorial
Dialogue: 0,0:06:23.08,0:06:25.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,would each be game-changers.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:25.43,0:06:27.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Put them together, and we're seeing a wave
Dialogue: 0,0:06:27.62,0:06:29.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of astonishing breakthroughs,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:29.01,0:06:32.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,like robots that do factory work or run as fast as a cheetah
Dialogue: 0,0:06:32.07,0:06:34.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or leap tall buildings in a single bound.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:34.87,0:06:37.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You know, robots are even revolutionizing
Dialogue: 0,0:06:37.10,0:06:38.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,cat transportation.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:38.93,0:06:41.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:06:41.20,0:06:43.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But perhaps the most important invention,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:43.93,0:06:48.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the most important invention is machine learning.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:48.100,0:06:52.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Consider one project: IBM's Watson.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:52.37,0:06:53.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,These little dots here,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:53.96,0:06:58.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,those are all the champions on the quiz show "Jeopardy."
Dialogue: 0,0:06:58.82,0:07:01.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,At first, Watson wasn't very good,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:01.37,0:07:06.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but it improved at a rate faster than any human could,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:06.99,0:07:09.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and shortly after Dave Ferrucci showed this chart
Dialogue: 0,0:07:09.68,0:07:11.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to my class at MIT,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:11.33,0:07:14.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Watson beat the world "Jeopardy" champion.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:14.87,0:07:18.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,At age seven, Watson is still kind of in its childhood.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:18.86,0:07:24.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Recently, its teachers let it surf the Internet unsupervised.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:24.18,0:07:30.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The next day, it started answering questions with profanities.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:30.12,0:07:32.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Damn. (Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:07:32.40,0:07:34.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But you know, Watson is growing up fast.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:34.68,0:07:38.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's being tested for jobs in call centers, and it's getting them.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:38.89,0:07:42.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's applying for legal, banking and medical jobs,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:42.61,0:07:44.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and getting some of them.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:44.56,0:07:46.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Isn't it ironic that at the very moment
Dialogue: 0,0:07:46.45,0:07:48.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we are building intelligent machines,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:48.68,0:07:52.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,perhaps the most important invention in human history,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:52.13,0:07:56.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,some people are arguing that innovation is stagnating?
Dialogue: 0,0:07:56.11,0:07:58.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Like the first two industrial revolutions,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:58.53,0:08:01.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the full implications of the new machine age
Dialogue: 0,0:08:01.66,0:08:04.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are going to take at least a century to fully play out,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:04.34,0:08:07.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but they are staggering.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:07.38,0:08:10.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So does that mean we have nothing to worry about?
Dialogue: 0,0:08:10.71,0:08:14.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,No. Technology is not destiny.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:14.39,0:08:16.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Productivity is at an all time high,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:16.96,0:08:19.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but fewer people now have jobs.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:19.94,0:08:23.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We have created more wealth in the past decade than ever,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:23.06,0:08:26.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but for a majority of Americans, their income has fallen.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:26.97,0:08:29.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is the great decoupling
Dialogue: 0,0:08:29.28,0:08:32.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of productivity from employment,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:32.26,0:08:35.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of wealth from work.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:35.36,0:08:37.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You know, it's not surprising that millions of people
Dialogue: 0,0:08:37.71,0:08:40.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,have become disillusioned by the great decoupling,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:40.55,0:08:42.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but like too many others,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:42.30,0:08:45.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they misunderstand its basic causes.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:45.40,0:08:48.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Technology is racing ahead,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:48.01,0:08:51.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but it's leaving more and more people behind.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:51.56,0:08:55.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Today, we can take a routine job,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:55.08,0:08:58.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,codify it in a set of machine-readable instructions,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:58.17,0:09:00.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then replicate it a million times.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:00.99,0:09:03.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You know, I recently overheard a conversation
Dialogue: 0,0:09:03.27,0:09:05.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that epitomizes these new economics.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:05.22,0:09:09.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This guy says, "Nah, I don't use H&R Block anymore.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:09.42,0:09:11.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,TurboTax does everything that my tax preparer did,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:11.87,0:09:16.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but it's faster, cheaper and more accurate."
Dialogue: 0,0:09:16.43,0:09:18.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,How can a skilled worker
Dialogue: 0,0:09:18.23,0:09:21.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,compete with a $39 piece of software?
Dialogue: 0,0:09:21.24,0:09:23.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,She can't.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:23.20,0:09:25.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Today, millions of Americans do have faster,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:25.98,0:09:28.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,cheaper, more accurate tax preparation,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:28.37,0:09:29.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the founders of Intuit
Dialogue: 0,0:09:29.86,0:09:32.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,have done very well for themselves.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:32.35,0:09:36.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But 17 percent of tax preparers no longer have jobs.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:36.56,0:09:38.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That is a microcosm of what's happening,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:38.64,0:09:43.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not just in software and services, but in media and music,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:43.32,0:09:47.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in finance and manufacturing, in retailing and trade --
Dialogue: 0,0:09:47.00,0:09:50.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in short, in every industry.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:50.90,0:09:53.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,People are racing against the machine,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:53.99,0:09:57.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and many of them are losing that race.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:57.08,0:10:00.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What can we do to create shared prosperity?
Dialogue: 0,0:10:00.97,0:10:03.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The answer is not to try to slow down technology.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:03.99,0:10:06.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Instead of racing against the machine,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:06.54,0:10:10.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we need to learn to race with the machine.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:10.22,0:10:13.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That is our grand challenge.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:13.35,0:10:15.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The new machine age
Dialogue: 0,0:10:15.67,0:10:18.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,can be dated to a day 15 years ago
Dialogue: 0,0:10:18.79,0:10:21.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when Garry Kasparov, the world chess champion,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:21.66,0:10:25.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,played Deep Blue, a supercomputer.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:25.37,0:10:27.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The machine won that day,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:27.38,0:10:30.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and today, a chess program running on a cell phone
Dialogue: 0,0:10:30.35,0:10:32.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,can beat a human grandmaster.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:32.65,0:10:36.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It got so bad that, when he was asked
Dialogue: 0,0:10:36.01,0:10:38.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what strategy he would use against a computer,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:38.57,0:10:42.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Jan Donner, the Dutch grandmaster, replied,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:42.59,0:10:44.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"I'd bring a hammer."
Dialogue: 0,0:10:44.36,0:10:48.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:10:48.04,0:10:52.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But today a computer is no longer the world chess champion.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:52.58,0:10:55.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Neither is a human,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:55.24,0:10:58.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because Kasparov organized a freestyle tournament
Dialogue: 0,0:10:58.82,0:11:00.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where teams of humans and computers
Dialogue: 0,0:11:00.73,0:11:02.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,could work together,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:02.83,0:11:05.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the winning team had no grandmaster,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:05.99,0:11:08.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it had no supercomputer.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:08.46,0:11:12.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What they had was better teamwork,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:12.63,0:11:17.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they showed that a team of humans and computers,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:17.65,0:11:20.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,working together, could beat any computer
Dialogue: 0,0:11:20.69,0:11:24.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or any human working alone.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:24.21,0:11:25.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Racing with the machine
Dialogue: 0,0:11:25.88,0:11:28.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,beats racing against the machine.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:28.22,0:11:30.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Technology is not destiny.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:30.78,0:11:32.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We shape our destiny.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:32.53,0:11:33.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Thank you.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:33.97,0:11:38.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Applause)