1 00:00:00,686 --> 00:00:05,742 This is the skyline of my hometown, New Orleans. 2 00:00:05,766 --> 00:00:08,379 It was a great place to grow up, 3 00:00:08,403 --> 00:00:12,114 but it's one of the most vulnerable spots in the world. 4 00:00:12,138 --> 00:00:14,821 Half the city is already below sea level. 5 00:00:14,845 --> 00:00:18,273 In 2005, the world watched as New Orleans 6 00:00:18,297 --> 00:00:21,776 and the Gulf Coast were devastated by Hurricane Katrina. 7 00:00:21,800 --> 00:00:27,986 One thousand, eight hundred and thirty-six people died. Nearly 300,000 homes were lost. 8 00:00:28,010 --> 00:00:30,257 These are my mother's, at the top -- 9 00:00:30,281 --> 00:00:31,711 although that's not her car, 10 00:00:31,735 --> 00:00:34,259 it was carried there by floodwaters up to the roof -- 11 00:00:34,283 --> 00:00:36,357 and that's my sister's, below. 12 00:00:36,381 --> 00:00:40,209 Fortunately, they and other family members got out in time, 13 00:00:40,233 --> 00:00:42,424 but they lost their homes, and as you can see, 14 00:00:42,448 --> 00:00:45,274 just about everything in them. 15 00:00:45,298 --> 00:00:47,584 Other parts of the world have been hit by storms 16 00:00:47,608 --> 00:00:49,568 in even more devastating ways. 17 00:00:49,592 --> 00:00:52,446 In 2008, Cyclone Nargis and its aftermath 18 00:00:52,470 --> 00:00:55,788 killed 138,000 in Myanmar. 19 00:00:55,812 --> 00:00:59,220 Climate change is affecting our homes, our communities, 20 00:00:59,244 --> 00:01:01,668 our way of life. We should be preparing 21 00:01:01,692 --> 00:01:05,325 at every scale and at every opportunity. 22 00:01:05,349 --> 00:01:09,180 This talk is about being prepared for, and resilient to 23 00:01:09,204 --> 00:01:11,966 the changes that are coming and that will affect our homes 24 00:01:11,990 --> 00:01:14,520 and our collective home, the Earth. 25 00:01:14,544 --> 00:01:18,872 The changes in these times won't affect us all equally. 26 00:01:18,896 --> 00:01:21,182 There are important distributional consequences, 27 00:01:21,206 --> 00:01:23,350 and they're not what you always might think. 28 00:01:23,374 --> 00:01:26,592 In New Orleans, the elderly and female-headed households 29 00:01:26,616 --> 00:01:28,872 were among the most vulnerable. 30 00:01:28,896 --> 00:01:30,960 For those in vulnerable, low-lying nations, 31 00:01:30,984 --> 00:01:33,808 how do you put a dollar value on losing your country 32 00:01:33,832 --> 00:01:38,328 where you ancestors are buried? And where will your people go? 33 00:01:38,352 --> 00:01:40,459 And how will they cope in a foreign land? 34 00:01:40,483 --> 00:01:42,536 Will there be tensions over immigration, 35 00:01:42,560 --> 00:01:46,032 or conflicts over competition for limited resources? 36 00:01:46,056 --> 00:01:51,024 It's already fueled conflicts in Chad and Darfur. 37 00:01:51,048 --> 00:01:55,841 Like it or not, ready or not, this is our future. 38 00:01:55,865 --> 00:01:59,368 Sure, some are looking for opportunities in this new world. 39 00:01:59,392 --> 00:02:02,392 That's the Russians planting a flag on the ocean bottom 40 00:02:02,416 --> 00:02:05,824 to stake a claim for minerals under the receding Arctic sea ice. 41 00:02:05,848 --> 00:02:09,086 But while there might be some short-term individual winners, 42 00:02:09,110 --> 00:02:12,624 our collective losses will far outweigh them. 43 00:02:12,648 --> 00:02:14,887 Look no further than the insurance industry as they struggle 44 00:02:14,911 --> 00:02:16,943 to cope with mounting catastrophic losses 45 00:02:16,967 --> 00:02:19,369 from extreme weather events. 46 00:02:19,393 --> 00:02:22,224 The military gets it. They call climate change 47 00:02:22,248 --> 00:02:25,465 a threat multiplier that could harm stability and security, 48 00:02:25,489 --> 00:02:28,354 while governments around the world are evaluating 49 00:02:28,378 --> 00:02:30,401 how to respond. 50 00:02:30,425 --> 00:02:34,576 So what can we do? How can we prepare and adapt? 51 00:02:34,600 --> 00:02:37,607 I'd like to share three sets of examples, starting with 52 00:02:37,631 --> 00:02:40,576 adapting to violent storms and floods. 53 00:02:40,600 --> 00:02:43,264 In New Orleans, the I-10 Twin Spans, 54 00:02:43,288 --> 00:02:46,137 with sections knocked out in Katrina, have been rebuilt 55 00:02:46,161 --> 00:02:50,112 21 feet higher to allow for greater storm surge. 56 00:02:50,136 --> 00:02:52,658 And these raised and energy-efficient homes 57 00:02:52,682 --> 00:02:55,520 were developed by Brad Pitt and Make It Right 58 00:02:55,544 --> 00:02:58,336 for the hard-hit Ninth Ward. 59 00:02:58,360 --> 00:03:01,432 The devastated church my mom attends has been 60 00:03:01,456 --> 00:03:04,104 not only rebuilt higher, it's poised to become 61 00:03:04,128 --> 00:03:06,736 the first Energy Star church in the country. 62 00:03:06,760 --> 00:03:08,856 They're selling electricity back to the grid 63 00:03:08,880 --> 00:03:12,503 thanks to solar panels, reflective paint and more. 64 00:03:12,527 --> 00:03:15,080 Their March electricity bill was only 48 dollars. 65 00:03:15,104 --> 00:03:19,393 Now these are examples of New Orleans rebuilding in this way, 66 00:03:19,417 --> 00:03:24,289 but better if others act proactively with these changes in mind. 67 00:03:24,313 --> 00:03:28,072 For example, in Galveston, here's a resilient home 68 00:03:28,096 --> 00:03:30,520 that survived Hurricane Ike, 69 00:03:30,544 --> 00:03:33,136 when others on neighboring lots clearly did not. 70 00:03:33,160 --> 00:03:36,313 And around the world, satellites and warning systems 71 00:03:36,337 --> 00:03:40,721 are saving lives in flood-prone areas such as Bangladesh. 72 00:03:40,745 --> 00:03:43,833 But as important as technology and infrastructure are, 73 00:03:43,857 --> 00:03:47,569 perhaps the human element is even more critical. 74 00:03:47,593 --> 00:03:50,952 We need better planning and systems for evacuation. 75 00:03:50,976 --> 00:03:54,041 We need to better understand how people make decisions 76 00:03:54,065 --> 00:03:56,137 in times of crisis, and why. 77 00:03:56,161 --> 00:04:00,249 While it's true that many who died in Katrina did not have access to transportation, 78 00:04:00,273 --> 00:04:03,449 others who did refused to leave as the storm approached, 79 00:04:03,473 --> 00:04:07,271 often because available transportation and shelters 80 00:04:07,295 --> 00:04:09,785 refused to allow them to take their pets. 81 00:04:09,809 --> 00:04:14,805 Imagine leaving behind your own pet in an evacuation or a rescue. 82 00:04:14,829 --> 00:04:17,680 Fortunately in 2006, Congress passed 83 00:04:17,704 --> 00:04:21,154 the Pet Evacuation and Transportation Standards Act (Laughter) 84 00:04:21,178 --> 00:04:25,692 — it spells "PETS" — to change that. 85 00:04:25,716 --> 00:04:28,577 Second, preparing for heat and drought. 86 00:04:28,601 --> 00:04:31,450 Farmers are facing challenges of drought from Asia 87 00:04:31,474 --> 00:04:33,954 to Africa, from Australia to Oklahoma, 88 00:04:33,978 --> 00:04:36,321 while heat waves linked with climate change 89 00:04:36,345 --> 00:04:38,722 have killed tens of thousands of people 90 00:04:38,746 --> 00:04:44,954 in Western Europe in 2003, and again in Russia in 2010. 91 00:04:44,978 --> 00:04:49,905 In Ethiopia, 70 percent, that's 7-0 percent of the population, 92 00:04:49,929 --> 00:04:52,514 depends on rainfall for its livelihood. 93 00:04:52,538 --> 00:04:56,226 Oxfam and Swiss Re, together with Rockefeller Foundation, 94 00:04:56,250 --> 00:04:59,882 are helping farmers like this one build hillside terraces 95 00:04:59,906 --> 00:05:02,513 and find other ways to conserve water, 96 00:05:02,537 --> 00:05:06,514 but they're also providing for insurance when the droughts do come. 97 00:05:06,538 --> 00:05:08,872 The stability this provides is giving the farmers 98 00:05:08,896 --> 00:05:10,698 the confidence to invest. 99 00:05:10,722 --> 00:05:13,340 It's giving them access to affordable credit. 100 00:05:13,364 --> 00:05:14,988 It's allowing them to become more productive so that 101 00:05:15,012 --> 00:05:18,898 they can afford their own insurance over time, without assistance. 102 00:05:18,922 --> 00:05:21,542 It's a virtuous cycle, and one that could be replicated 103 00:05:21,566 --> 00:05:23,893 throughout the developing world. 104 00:05:23,917 --> 00:05:26,738 After a lethal 1995 heat wave 105 00:05:26,762 --> 00:05:29,338 turned refrigerator trucks from the popular 106 00:05:29,362 --> 00:05:32,531 Taste of Chicago festival into makeshift morgues, 107 00:05:32,555 --> 00:05:34,778 Chicago became a recognized leader, 108 00:05:34,802 --> 00:05:37,609 tamping down on the urban heat island impact 109 00:05:37,633 --> 00:05:39,626 through opening cooling centers, 110 00:05:39,650 --> 00:05:42,835 outreach to vulnerable neighborhoods, planting trees, 111 00:05:42,859 --> 00:05:45,762 creating cool white or vegetated green roofs. 112 00:05:45,786 --> 00:05:49,406 This is City Hall's green roof, next to Cook County's [portion of the] roof, 113 00:05:49,430 --> 00:05:52,922 which is 77 degrees Fahrenheit hotter at the surface. 114 00:05:52,946 --> 00:05:57,018 Washington, D.C., last year, actually led the nation 115 00:05:57,042 --> 00:06:00,330 in new green roofs installed, and they're funding this in part 116 00:06:00,354 --> 00:06:03,784 thanks to a five-cent tax on plastic bags. 117 00:06:03,808 --> 00:06:06,570 They're splitting the cost of installing these green roofs 118 00:06:06,594 --> 00:06:08,282 with home and building owners. 119 00:06:08,306 --> 00:06:10,813 The roofs not only temper urban heat island impact 120 00:06:10,837 --> 00:06:13,170 but they save energy, and therefore money, 121 00:06:13,194 --> 00:06:15,323 the emissions that cause climate change, 122 00:06:15,347 --> 00:06:17,818 and they also reduce stormwater runoff. 123 00:06:17,842 --> 00:06:22,570 So some solutions to heat can provide for win-win-wins. 124 00:06:22,594 --> 00:06:26,332 Third, adapting to rising seas. 125 00:06:26,356 --> 00:06:29,978 Sea level rise threatens coastal ecosystems, agriculture, 126 00:06:30,002 --> 00:06:33,362 even major cities. This is what one to two meters 127 00:06:33,386 --> 00:06:36,362 of sea level rise looks like in the Mekong Delta. 128 00:06:36,386 --> 00:06:39,013 That's where half of Vietnam's rice is grown. 129 00:06:39,037 --> 00:06:42,146 Infrastructure is going to be affected. 130 00:06:42,170 --> 00:06:44,666 Airports around the world are located on the coast. 131 00:06:44,690 --> 00:06:46,690 It makes sense, right? There's open space, 132 00:06:46,714 --> 00:06:49,335 the planes can take off and land without worrying about 133 00:06:49,359 --> 00:06:51,550 creating noise or avoiding tall buildings. 134 00:06:51,574 --> 00:06:54,686 Here's just one example, San Francisco Airport, 135 00:06:54,710 --> 00:06:57,400 with 16 inches or more of flooding. 136 00:06:57,424 --> 00:07:00,302 Imagine the staggering cost of protecting 137 00:07:00,326 --> 00:07:03,656 this vital infrastructure with levees. 138 00:07:03,680 --> 00:07:05,585 But there might be some changes in store 139 00:07:05,609 --> 00:07:07,792 that you might not imagine. For example, 140 00:07:07,816 --> 00:07:10,353 planes require more runway for takeoff 141 00:07:10,377 --> 00:07:14,219 because the heated, less dense air, provides for less lift. 142 00:07:14,243 --> 00:07:17,704 San Francisco is also spending 40 million dollars 143 00:07:17,728 --> 00:07:20,894 to rethink and redesign its water and sewage treatment, 144 00:07:20,918 --> 00:07:24,224 as water outfall pipes like this one can be flooded with seawater, 145 00:07:24,248 --> 00:07:27,193 causing backups at the plant, harming the bacteria 146 00:07:27,217 --> 00:07:28,884 that are needed to treat the waste. 147 00:07:28,908 --> 00:07:31,004 So these outfall pipes have been retrofitted 148 00:07:31,028 --> 00:07:34,160 to shut seawater off from entering the system. 149 00:07:34,184 --> 00:07:37,088 Beyond these technical solutions, our work 150 00:07:37,112 --> 00:07:38,856 at the Georgetown Climate Center with communities 151 00:07:38,880 --> 00:07:42,624 encourages them to look at what existing legal and policy tools are available 152 00:07:42,648 --> 00:07:46,200 and to consider how they can accommodate change. 153 00:07:46,224 --> 00:07:49,152 For example, in land use, which areas do you want 154 00:07:49,176 --> 00:07:52,112 to protect, through adding a seawall, for example, 155 00:07:52,136 --> 00:07:55,888 alter, by raising buildings, or retreat from, 156 00:07:55,912 --> 00:07:58,696 to allow the migration of important natural systems, 157 00:07:58,720 --> 00:08:01,423 such as wetlands or beaches? 158 00:08:01,447 --> 00:08:03,680 Other examples to consider. In the U.K., 159 00:08:03,704 --> 00:08:07,134 the Thames Barrier protects London from storm surge. 160 00:08:07,158 --> 00:08:09,680 The Asian Cities Climate [Change] Resilience Network 161 00:08:09,704 --> 00:08:12,878 is restoring vital ecosystems like forest mangroves. 162 00:08:12,902 --> 00:08:15,968 These are not only important ecosystems in their own right, 163 00:08:15,992 --> 00:08:20,264 but they also serve as a buffer to protect inland communities. 164 00:08:20,288 --> 00:08:23,976 New York City is incredibly vulnerable to storms, 165 00:08:24,000 --> 00:08:27,659 as you can see from this clever sign, and to sea level rise, 166 00:08:27,683 --> 00:08:30,819 and to storm surge, as you can see from the subway flooding. 167 00:08:30,843 --> 00:08:34,229 But back above ground, these raised ventilation grates 168 00:08:34,253 --> 00:08:36,777 for the subway system show that solutions can be both 169 00:08:36,801 --> 00:08:39,443 functional and attractive. In fact, in New York, 170 00:08:39,467 --> 00:08:42,595 San Francisco and London, designers have envisioned 171 00:08:42,619 --> 00:08:45,483 ways to better integrate the natural and built environments 172 00:08:45,507 --> 00:08:47,891 with climate change in mind. 173 00:08:47,915 --> 00:08:50,795 I think these are inspiring examples of what's possible 174 00:08:50,819 --> 00:08:53,962 when we feel empowered to plan for a world that will be different. 175 00:08:53,986 --> 00:08:56,980 But now, a word of caution. 176 00:08:57,004 --> 00:08:59,859 Adaptation's too important to be left to the experts. 177 00:08:59,883 --> 00:09:03,211 Why? Well, there are no experts. 178 00:09:03,235 --> 00:09:06,531 We're entering uncharted territory, and yet 179 00:09:06,555 --> 00:09:10,427 our expertise and our systems are based on the past. 180 00:09:10,451 --> 00:09:13,404 "Stationarity" is the notion that we can anticipate the future 181 00:09:13,428 --> 00:09:16,275 based on the past, and plan accordingly, 182 00:09:16,299 --> 00:09:18,728 and this principle governs much of our engineering, 183 00:09:18,752 --> 00:09:21,777 our design of critical infrastructure, city water systems, 184 00:09:21,801 --> 00:09:25,898 building codes, even water rights and other legal precedents. 185 00:09:25,922 --> 00:09:29,027 But we can simply no longer rely on established norms. 186 00:09:29,051 --> 00:09:33,387 We're operating outside the bounds of CO2 concentrations 187 00:09:33,411 --> 00:09:37,894 that the planet has seen for hundreds of thousands of years. 188 00:09:37,918 --> 00:09:41,207 The larger point I'm trying to make is this. 189 00:09:41,231 --> 00:09:44,903 It's up to us to look at our homes and our communities, 190 00:09:44,927 --> 00:09:47,590 our vulnerabilities and our exposures to risk, 191 00:09:47,614 --> 00:09:51,135 and to find ways to not just survive, but to thrive, 192 00:09:51,159 --> 00:09:53,879 and it's up to us to plan and to prepare 193 00:09:53,903 --> 00:09:56,475 and to call on our government leaders and require them 194 00:09:56,499 --> 00:09:58,535 to do the same, even while they address 195 00:09:58,559 --> 00:10:01,774 the underlying causes of climate change. 196 00:10:01,798 --> 00:10:03,430 There are no quick fixes. 197 00:10:03,454 --> 00:10:06,705 There are no one-size-fits-all solutions. 198 00:10:06,729 --> 00:10:08,614 We're all learning by doing. 199 00:10:08,638 --> 00:10:12,719 But the operative word is doing. 200 00:10:12,743 --> 00:10:14,022 Thank you. 201 00:10:14,046 --> 00:10:18,046 (Applause)