0:00:00.686,0:00:05.742 This is the skyline[br]of my hometown, New Orleans. 0:00:05.766,0:00:08.379 It was a great place to grow up, 0:00:08.403,0:00:12.114 but it's one of the most vulnerable[br]spots in the world. 0:00:12.138,0:00:14.821 Half the city is already below sea level. 0:00:14.845,0:00:18.273 In 2005, the world watched as New Orleans 0:00:18.297,0:00:21.776 and the Gulf Coast were[br]devastated by Hurricane Katrina. 0:00:21.800,0:00:27.986 One thousand, eight hundred and thirty-six[br]people died. Nearly 300,000 homes were lost. 0:00:28.010,0:00:30.257 These are my mother's, at the top -- 0:00:30.281,0:00:31.711 although that's not her car, 0:00:31.735,0:00:34.259 it was carried there[br]by floodwaters up to the roof -- 0:00:34.283,0:00:36.357 and that's my sister's, below. 0:00:36.381,0:00:40.209 Fortunately, they and other[br]family members got out in time, 0:00:40.233,0:00:42.424 but they lost their homes,[br]and as you can see, 0:00:42.448,0:00:45.274 just about everything in them. 0:00:45.298,0:00:47.584 Other parts of the world[br]have been hit by storms 0:00:47.608,0:00:49.568 in even more devastating ways. 0:00:49.592,0:00:52.446 In 2008, Cyclone Nargis and its aftermath 0:00:52.470,0:00:55.788 killed 138,000 in Myanmar. 0:00:55.812,0:00:59.220 Climate change is affecting[br]our homes, our communities, 0:00:59.244,0:01:01.668 our way of life. We should be preparing 0:01:01.692,0:01:05.325 at every scale and at every opportunity. 0:01:05.349,0:01:09.180 This talk is about being[br]prepared for, and resilient to 0:01:09.204,0:01:11.966 the changes that are coming[br]and that will affect our homes 0:01:11.990,0:01:14.520 and our collective home, the Earth. 0:01:14.544,0:01:18.872 The changes in these times[br]won't affect us all equally. 0:01:18.896,0:01:21.182 There are important[br]distributional consequences, 0:01:21.206,0:01:23.350 and they're not what you[br]always might think. 0:01:23.374,0:01:26.592 In New Orleans, the elderly[br]and female-headed households 0:01:26.616,0:01:28.872 were among the most vulnerable. 0:01:28.896,0:01:30.960 For those in vulnerable,[br]low-lying nations, 0:01:30.984,0:01:33.808 how do you put a dollar value[br]on losing your country 0:01:33.832,0:01:38.328 where you ancestors are buried?[br]And where will your people go? 0:01:38.352,0:01:40.459 And how will they cope in a foreign land? 0:01:40.483,0:01:42.536 Will there be tensions over immigration, 0:01:42.560,0:01:46.032 or conflicts over competition[br]for limited resources? 0:01:46.056,0:01:51.024 It's already fueled conflicts[br]in Chad and Darfur. 0:01:51.048,0:01:55.841 Like it or not, ready[br]or not, this is our future. 0:01:55.865,0:01:59.368 Sure, some are looking[br]for opportunities in this new world. 0:01:59.392,0:02:02.392 That's the Russians planting[br]a flag on the ocean bottom 0:02:02.416,0:02:05.824 to stake a claim for minerals[br]under the receding Arctic sea ice. 0:02:05.848,0:02:09.086 But while there might be[br]some short-term individual winners, 0:02:09.110,0:02:12.624 our collective losses[br]will far outweigh them. 0:02:12.648,0:02:14.887 Look no further than the insurance[br]industry as they struggle 0:02:14.911,0:02:16.943 to cope with mounting catastrophic losses 0:02:16.967,0:02:19.369 from extreme weather events. 0:02:19.393,0:02:22.224 The military gets it.[br]They call climate change 0:02:22.248,0:02:25.465 a threat multiplier that could[br]harm stability and security, 0:02:25.489,0:02:28.354 while governments[br]around the world are evaluating 0:02:28.378,0:02:30.401 how to respond. 0:02:30.425,0:02:34.576 So what can we do? How can[br]we prepare and adapt? 0:02:34.600,0:02:37.607 I'd like to share three sets[br]of examples, starting with 0:02:37.631,0:02:40.576 adapting to violent storms and floods. 0:02:40.600,0:02:43.264 In New Orleans, the I-10 Twin Spans, 0:02:43.288,0:02:46.137 with sections knocked[br]out in Katrina, have been rebuilt 0:02:46.161,0:02:50.112 21 feet higher to allow[br]for greater storm surge. 0:02:50.136,0:02:52.658 And these raised[br]and energy-efficient homes 0:02:52.682,0:02:55.520 were developed by Brad[br]Pitt and Make It Right 0:02:55.544,0:02:58.336 for the hard-hit Ninth Ward. 0:02:58.360,0:03:01.432 The devastated church[br]my mom attends has been 0:03:01.456,0:03:04.104 not only rebuilt higher,[br]it's poised to become 0:03:04.128,0:03:06.736 the first Energy Star[br]church in the country. 0:03:06.760,0:03:08.856 They're selling electricity[br]back to the grid 0:03:08.880,0:03:12.503 thanks to solar panels,[br]reflective paint and more. 0:03:12.527,0:03:15.080 Their March electricity[br]bill was only 48 dollars. 0:03:15.104,0:03:19.393 Now these are examples of New[br]Orleans rebuilding in this way, 0:03:19.417,0:03:24.289 but better if others act proactively[br]with these changes in mind. 0:03:24.313,0:03:28.072 For example, in Galveston,[br]here's a resilient home 0:03:28.096,0:03:30.520 that survived Hurricane Ike, 0:03:30.544,0:03:33.136 when others on neighboring[br]lots clearly did not. 0:03:33.160,0:03:36.313 And around the world,[br]satellites and warning systems 0:03:36.337,0:03:40.721 are saving lives in flood-prone[br]areas such as Bangladesh. 0:03:40.745,0:03:43.833 But as important as technology[br]and infrastructure are, 0:03:43.857,0:03:47.569 perhaps the human element[br]is even more critical. 0:03:47.593,0:03:50.952 We need better planning[br]and systems for evacuation. 0:03:50.976,0:03:54.041 We need to better understand[br]how people make decisions 0:03:54.065,0:03:56.137 in times of crisis, and why. 0:03:56.161,0:04:00.249 While it's true that many who died in Katrina[br]did not have access to transportation, 0:04:00.273,0:04:03.449 others who did refused to leave[br]as the storm approached, 0:04:03.473,0:04:07.271 often because available[br]transportation and shelters 0:04:07.295,0:04:09.785 refused to allow them to take their pets. 0:04:09.809,0:04:14.805 Imagine leaving behind your own pet[br]in an evacuation or a rescue. 0:04:14.829,0:04:17.680 Fortunately in 2006, Congress passed 0:04:17.704,0:04:21.154 the Pet Evacuation and Transportation[br]Standards Act (Laughter) 0:04:21.178,0:04:25.692 — it spells "PETS" — to change that. 0:04:25.716,0:04:28.577 Second, preparing for heat and drought. 0:04:28.601,0:04:31.450 Farmers are facing challenges[br]of drought from Asia 0:04:31.474,0:04:33.954 to Africa, from Australia to Oklahoma, 0:04:33.978,0:04:36.321 while heat waves linked[br]with climate change 0:04:36.345,0:04:38.722 have killed tens of thousands of people 0:04:38.746,0:04:44.954 in Western Europe in 2003,[br]and again in Russia in 2010. 0:04:44.978,0:04:49.905 In Ethiopia, 70 percent, that's 7-0[br]percent of the population, 0:04:49.929,0:04:52.514 depends on rainfall for its livelihood. 0:04:52.538,0:04:56.226 Oxfam and Swiss Re, together[br]with Rockefeller Foundation, 0:04:56.250,0:04:59.882 are helping farmers like this[br]one build hillside terraces 0:04:59.906,0:05:02.513 and find other ways to conserve water, 0:05:02.537,0:05:06.514 but they're also providing for insurance[br]when the droughts do come. 0:05:06.538,0:05:08.872 The stability this provides[br]is giving the farmers 0:05:08.896,0:05:10.698 the confidence to invest. 0:05:10.722,0:05:13.340 It's giving them access[br]to affordable credit. 0:05:13.364,0:05:14.988 It's allowing them to become[br]more productive so that 0:05:15.012,0:05:18.898 they can afford their own insurance[br]over time, without assistance. 0:05:18.922,0:05:21.542 It's a virtuous cycle,[br]and one that could be replicated 0:05:21.566,0:05:23.893 throughout the developing world. 0:05:23.917,0:05:26.738 After a lethal 1995 heat wave 0:05:26.762,0:05:29.338 turned refrigerator[br]trucks from the popular 0:05:29.362,0:05:32.531 Taste of Chicago festival[br]into makeshift morgues, 0:05:32.555,0:05:34.778 Chicago became a recognized leader, 0:05:34.802,0:05:37.609 tamping down on the urban[br]heat island impact 0:05:37.633,0:05:39.626 through opening cooling centers, 0:05:39.650,0:05:42.835 outreach to vulnerable[br]neighborhoods, planting trees, 0:05:42.859,0:05:45.762 creating cool white[br]or vegetated green roofs. 0:05:45.786,0:05:49.406 This is City Hall's green roof, next to Cook[br]County's [portion of the] roof, 0:05:49.430,0:05:52.922 which is 77 degrees Fahrenheit[br]hotter at the surface. 0:05:52.946,0:05:57.018 Washington, D.C., last year,[br]actually led the nation 0:05:57.042,0:06:00.330 in new green roofs installed,[br]and they're funding this in part 0:06:00.354,0:06:03.784 thanks to a five-cent tax on plastic bags. 0:06:03.808,0:06:06.570 They're splitting the cost[br]of installing these green roofs 0:06:06.594,0:06:08.282 with home and building owners. 0:06:08.306,0:06:10.813 The roofs not only temper[br]urban heat island impact 0:06:10.837,0:06:13.170 but they save energy, and therefore money, 0:06:13.194,0:06:15.323 the emissions that cause climate change, 0:06:15.347,0:06:17.818 and they also reduce stormwater runoff. 0:06:17.842,0:06:22.570 So some solutions to heat can[br]provide for win-win-wins. 0:06:22.594,0:06:26.332 Third, adapting to rising seas. 0:06:26.356,0:06:29.978 Sea level rise threatens coastal[br]ecosystems, agriculture, 0:06:30.002,0:06:33.362 even major cities. This[br]is what one to two meters 0:06:33.386,0:06:36.362 of sea level rise looks[br]like in the Mekong Delta. 0:06:36.386,0:06:39.013 That's where half[br]of Vietnam's rice is grown. 0:06:39.037,0:06:42.146 Infrastructure is going to be affected. 0:06:42.170,0:06:44.666 Airports around the world[br]are located on the coast. 0:06:44.690,0:06:46.690 It makes sense, right? There's open space, 0:06:46.714,0:06:49.335 the planes can take off and land[br]without worrying about 0:06:49.359,0:06:51.550 creating noise or avoiding tall buildings. 0:06:51.574,0:06:54.686 Here's just one example,[br]San Francisco Airport, 0:06:54.710,0:06:57.400 with 16 inches or more of flooding. 0:06:57.424,0:07:00.302 Imagine the staggering cost of protecting 0:07:00.326,0:07:03.656 this vital infrastructure with levees. 0:07:03.680,0:07:05.585 But there might be some changes in store 0:07:05.609,0:07:07.792 that you might not imagine. For example, 0:07:07.816,0:07:10.353 planes require more runway for takeoff 0:07:10.377,0:07:14.219 because the heated, less dense[br]air, provides for less lift. 0:07:14.243,0:07:17.704 San Francisco is also[br]spending 40 million dollars 0:07:17.728,0:07:20.894 to rethink and redesign its[br]water and sewage treatment, 0:07:20.918,0:07:24.224 as water outfall pipes like this[br]one can be flooded with seawater, 0:07:24.248,0:07:27.193 causing backups at the plant,[br]harming the bacteria 0:07:27.217,0:07:28.884 that are needed to treat the waste. 0:07:28.908,0:07:31.004 So these outfall pipes[br]have been retrofitted 0:07:31.028,0:07:34.160 to shut seawater[br]off from entering the system. 0:07:34.184,0:07:37.088 Beyond these technical solutions, our work 0:07:37.112,0:07:38.856 at the Georgetown Climate[br]Center with communities 0:07:38.880,0:07:42.624 encourages them to look at what existing[br]legal and policy tools are available 0:07:42.648,0:07:46.200 and to consider how they can[br]accommodate change. 0:07:46.224,0:07:49.152 For example, in land use,[br]which areas do you want 0:07:49.176,0:07:52.112 to protect, through adding[br]a seawall, for example, 0:07:52.136,0:07:55.888 alter, by raising[br]buildings, or retreat from, 0:07:55.912,0:07:58.696 to allow the migration[br]of important natural systems, 0:07:58.720,0:08:01.423 such as wetlands or beaches? 0:08:01.447,0:08:03.680 Other examples to consider. In the U.K., 0:08:03.704,0:08:07.134 the Thames Barrier protects[br]London from storm surge. 0:08:07.158,0:08:09.680 The Asian Cities Climate[br][Change] Resilience Network 0:08:09.704,0:08:12.878 is restoring vital ecosystems[br]like forest mangroves. 0:08:12.902,0:08:15.968 These are not only important[br]ecosystems in their own right, 0:08:15.992,0:08:20.264 but they also serve as a buffer[br]to protect inland communities. 0:08:20.288,0:08:23.976 New York City is incredibly[br]vulnerable to storms, 0:08:24.000,0:08:27.659 as you can see from this clever[br]sign, and to sea level rise, 0:08:27.683,0:08:30.819 and to storm surge, as you can[br]see from the subway flooding. 0:08:30.843,0:08:34.229 But back above ground, these[br]raised ventilation grates 0:08:34.253,0:08:36.777 for the subway system show[br]that solutions can be both 0:08:36.801,0:08:39.443 functional and attractive.[br]In fact, in New York, 0:08:39.467,0:08:42.595 San Francisco and London,[br]designers have envisioned 0:08:42.619,0:08:45.483 ways to better integrate[br]the natural and built environments 0:08:45.507,0:08:47.891 with climate change in mind. 0:08:47.915,0:08:50.795 I think these are inspiring[br]examples of what's possible 0:08:50.819,0:08:53.962 when we feel empowered to plan[br]for a world that will be different. 0:08:53.986,0:08:56.980 But now, a word of caution. 0:08:57.004,0:08:59.859 Adaptation's too important[br]to be left to the experts. 0:08:59.883,0:09:03.211 Why? Well, there are no experts. 0:09:03.235,0:09:06.531 We're entering uncharted[br]territory, and yet 0:09:06.555,0:09:10.427 our expertise and our systems[br]are based on the past. 0:09:10.451,0:09:13.404 "Stationarity" is the notion[br]that we can anticipate the future 0:09:13.428,0:09:16.275 based on the past, and plan accordingly, 0:09:16.299,0:09:18.728 and this principle governs[br]much of our engineering, 0:09:18.752,0:09:21.777 our design of critical[br]infrastructure, city water systems, 0:09:21.801,0:09:25.898 building codes, even water rights[br]and other legal precedents. 0:09:25.922,0:09:29.027 But we can simply no longer[br]rely on established norms. 0:09:29.051,0:09:33.387 We're operating outside the bounds[br]of CO2 concentrations 0:09:33.411,0:09:37.894 that the planet has seen[br]for hundreds of thousands of years. 0:09:37.918,0:09:41.207 The larger point I'm[br]trying to make is this. 0:09:41.231,0:09:44.903 It's up to us to look[br]at our homes and our communities, 0:09:44.927,0:09:47.590 our vulnerabilities[br]and our exposures to risk, 0:09:47.614,0:09:51.135 and to find ways to not just[br]survive, but to thrive, 0:09:51.159,0:09:53.879 and it's up to us to plan and to prepare 0:09:53.903,0:09:56.475 and to call on our government[br]leaders and require them 0:09:56.499,0:09:58.535 to do the same, even while they address 0:09:58.559,0:10:01.774 the underlying causes of climate change. 0:10:01.798,0:10:03.430 There are no quick fixes. 0:10:03.454,0:10:06.705 There are no one-size-fits-all solutions. 0:10:06.729,0:10:08.614 We're all learning by doing. 0:10:08.638,0:10:12.719 But the operative word is doing. 0:10:12.743,0:10:14.802 Thank you. (Applause) 0:10:14.826,0:10:18.826 (Applause)