[Script Info]
Title: 
[Events]
Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text
Dialogue: 0,0:00:00.85,0:00:02.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For the past decade,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:02.34,0:00:05.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I've been studying non-state armed groups:
Dialogue: 0,0:00:05.27,0:00:09.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,armed organizations like terrorists,\Ninsurgents or militias.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:09.59,0:00:12.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I document what these groups do\Nwhen they're not shooting.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:12.78,0:00:16.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,My goal is to better understand\Nthese violent actors
Dialogue: 0,0:00:16.37,0:00:20.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and to study ways to encourage transition\Nfrom violent engagement
Dialogue: 0,0:00:20.09,0:00:21.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to nonviolent confrontation.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:21.99,0:00:25.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I work in the field, in the policy world\Nand in the library.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:25.75,0:00:30.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Understanding non-state armed groups\Nis key to solving most ongoing conflict,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:30.88,0:00:32.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because war has changed.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:32.46,0:00:34.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It used to be a contest between states.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:35.57,0:00:36.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,No longer.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:36.74,0:00:40.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It is now a conflict between states\Nand non-state actors.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:41.24,0:00:44.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For example, of the 216 peace agreements
Dialogue: 0,0:00:44.100,0:00:48.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,signed between 1975 and 2011,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:48.43,0:00:53.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,196 of them were between a state\Nand a non-state actor.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:53.63,0:00:56.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So we need to understand these groups;\Nwe need to either engage them
Dialogue: 0,0:00:56.90,0:01:01.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or defeat them in any conflict resolution\Nprocess that has to be successful.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:01.81,0:01:03.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So how do we do that?
Dialogue: 0,0:01:03.80,0:01:06.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We need to know what makes\Nthese organizations tick.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:07.15,0:01:09.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We know a lot about\Nhow they fight, why they fight,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:09.96,0:01:13.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but no one looks at what they're doing\Nwhen they're not fighting.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:13.04,0:01:16.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Yet, armed struggle\Nand unarmed politics are related.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:16.66,0:01:18.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It is all part of the same organization.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:18.98,0:01:22.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We cannot understand these groups,\Nlet alone defeat them,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:22.16,0:01:24.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if we don't have the full picture.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:25.14,0:01:28.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And armed groups today\Nare complex organizations.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:28.22,0:01:30.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Take the Lebanese Hezbollah,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:30.15,0:01:32.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,known for its violent\Nconfrontation against Israel.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:32.96,0:01:35.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But since its creation in the early 1980s,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:35.82,0:01:38.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Hezbollah has also set up\Na political party,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:38.42,0:01:41.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a social-service network,\Nand a military apparatus.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:41.76,0:01:44.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Similarly, the Palestinian Hamas,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:44.42,0:01:46.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,known for its suicide attacks\Nagainst Israel,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:47.01,0:01:50.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,also runs the Gaza Strip since 2007.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:50.23,0:01:52.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So these groups do way more\Nthan just shoot.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:53.45,0:01:54.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They multi-task.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:55.24,0:01:58.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They set up complex\Ncommunication machines --
Dialogue: 0,0:01:58.28,0:02:00.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,radio stations, TV channels,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:00.44,0:02:03.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Internet websites\Nand social media strategies.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:03.42,0:02:05.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And up here, you have the ISIS magazine,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:05.74,0:02:08.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,printed in English\Nand published to recruit.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:09.26,0:02:12.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Armed groups also invest\Nin complex fund-raising --
Dialogue: 0,0:02:12.19,0:02:16.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not looting, but setting up\Nprofitable businesses;
Dialogue: 0,0:02:16.08,0:02:18.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for example, construction companies.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:18.49,0:02:20.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, these activities are keys.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:20.40,0:02:22.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They allow these groups\Nto increase their strength,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:22.84,0:02:24.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,increase their funds,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:24.22,0:02:27.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to better recruit\Nand to build their brand.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:27.54,0:02:29.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Armed groups also do something else:
Dialogue: 0,0:02:29.30,0:02:31.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they build stronger bonds\Nwith the population
Dialogue: 0,0:02:31.98,0:02:34.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by investing in social services.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:34.46,0:02:37.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They build schools, they run hospitals,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:37.32,0:02:41.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they set up vocational-training programs\Nor micro-loan programs.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:41.10,0:02:44.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Hezbollah offers all\Nof these services and more.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:44.90,0:02:47.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Armed groups also seek\Nto win the population over
Dialogue: 0,0:02:47.74,0:02:51.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by offering something\Nthat the state is not providing:
Dialogue: 0,0:02:51.66,0:02:53.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,safety and security.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:54.14,0:02:58.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The initial rise of the Taliban\Nin war-torn Afghanistan,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:58.12,0:03:01.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or even the beginning\Nof the ascent of ISIS,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:01.03,0:03:04.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,can be understood also by looking\Nat these groups' efforts
Dialogue: 0,0:03:04.11,0:03:06.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to provide security.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:06.35,0:03:08.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, unfortunately, in these cases,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:08.64,0:03:11.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the provision of security\Ncame at an unbearably high price
Dialogue: 0,0:03:11.91,0:03:13.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for the population.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:13.35,0:03:17.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But in general, providing\Nsocial services fills a gap,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:17.61,0:03:19.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a governance gap left by the government,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:19.90,0:03:22.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and allows these groups\Nto increase their strength
Dialogue: 0,0:03:22.52,0:03:23.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and their power.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:24.04,0:03:28.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For example, the 2006 electoral victory\Nof the Palestinian Hamas
Dialogue: 0,0:03:28.47,0:03:32.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,cannot be understood without\Nacknowledging the group's social work.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:32.70,0:03:35.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, this is a really complex picture,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:35.09,0:03:37.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,yet in the West,\Nwhen we look at armed groups,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:37.60,0:03:39.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we only think of the violent side.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:39.82,0:03:42.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But that's not enough to understand\Nthese groups' strength,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:42.72,0:03:44.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,strategy or long-term vision.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:45.39,0:03:46.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,These groups are hybrid.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:46.98,0:03:50.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They rise because they fill a gap\Nleft by the government,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:50.32,0:03:53.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they emerge\Nto be both armed and political,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:53.73,0:03:56.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,engage in violent struggle\Nand provide governance.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:57.43,0:04:01.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the more these organizations\Nare complex and sophisticated,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:01.46,0:04:04.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the less we can think of them\Nas the opposite of a state.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:04.83,0:04:07.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, what do you call\Na group like Hezbollah?
Dialogue: 0,0:04:07.13,0:04:10.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They run part of a territory,\Nthey administer all their functions,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:10.47,0:04:13.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they pick up the garbage,\Nthey run the sewage system.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:13.63,0:04:16.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Is this a state? Is it a rebel group?
Dialogue: 0,0:04:16.72,0:04:20.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Or maybe something else,\Nsomething different and new?
Dialogue: 0,0:04:20.08,0:04:21.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And what about ISIS?
Dialogue: 0,0:04:21.79,0:04:23.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The lines are blurred.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:23.08,0:04:26.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We live in a world of states,\Nnon-states, and in-between,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:26.86,0:04:30.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the more states are weak,\Nlike in the Middle East today,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:30.30,0:04:33.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the more non-state actors\Nstep in and fill that gap.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:33.80,0:04:36.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This matters for governments,\Nbecause to counter these groups,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:36.95,0:04:40.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they will have to invest more\Nin non-military tools.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:41.20,0:04:42.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Filling that governance gap
Dialogue: 0,0:04:42.70,0:04:46.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,has to be at the center\Nof any sustainable approach.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:46.15,0:04:49.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This also matters very much\Nfor peacemaking and peacebuilding.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:49.81,0:04:51.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If we better understand armed groups,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:51.87,0:04:54.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we will better know\Nwhat incentives to offer
Dialogue: 0,0:04:54.35,0:04:58.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to encourage the transition\Nfrom violence to nonviolence.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:58.49,0:05:02.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So in this new contest\Nbetween states and non-states,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:02.16,0:05:04.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,military power can win some battles,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:04.83,0:05:07.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but it will not give us\Npeace nor stability.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:08.08,0:05:09.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,To achieve these objectives,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:09.96,0:05:14.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what we need is a long-term investment\Nin filling that security gap,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:14.79,0:05:16.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in filling that governance gap
Dialogue: 0,0:05:16.81,0:05:19.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that allowed these groups\Nto thrive in the first place.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:20.22,0:05:21.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Thank you.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:21.40,0:05:24.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Applause)