[Script Info]
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[Events]
Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text
Dialogue: 0,0:00:00.50,0:00:05.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The global economic financial crisis has reignited public interest
Dialogue: 0,0:00:05.00,0:00:08.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in something that's actually one of the oldest questions in economics,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:08.42,0:00:11.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,dating back to at least before Adam Smith.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:11.10,0:00:16.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And that is, why is it that countries with seemingly similar economies and institutions
Dialogue: 0,0:00:16.58,0:00:19.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,can display radically different savings behavior?
Dialogue: 0,0:00:19.83,0:00:24.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, many brilliant economists have spent their entire lives working on this question,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:24.37,0:00:27.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and as a field we've made a tremendous amount of headway
Dialogue: 0,0:00:27.78,0:00:30.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we understand a lot about this.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:30.22,0:00:33.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What I'm here to talk with you about today is an intriguing new hypothesis
Dialogue: 0,0:00:33.85,0:00:37.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and some surprisingly powerful new findings that I've been working on
Dialogue: 0,0:00:37.88,0:00:42.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about the link between the structure of the language you speak
Dialogue: 0,0:00:42.60,0:00:47.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and how you find yourself with the propensity to save.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:47.00,0:00:50.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Let me tell you a little bit about savings rates, a little bit about language,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:50.07,0:00:52.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then I'll draw that connection.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:52.42,0:00:56.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Let's start by thinking about the member countries of the OECD,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:56.98,0:01:00.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:00.28,0:01:04.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,OECD countries, by and large, you should think about these
Dialogue: 0,0:01:04.18,0:01:06.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as the richest, most industrialized countries in the world.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:06.82,0:01:10.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And by joining the OECD, they were affirming a common commitment
Dialogue: 0,0:01:10.87,0:01:14.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to democracy, open markets and free trade.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:14.31,0:01:18.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Despite all of these similarities, we see huge differences in savings behavior.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:18.100,0:01:21.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So all the way over on the left of this graph,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:21.44,0:01:26.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what you see is many OECD countries saving over a quarter of their GDP every year,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:26.18,0:01:30.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and some OECD countries saving over a third of their GDP per year.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:30.86,0:01:35.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Holding down the right flank of the OECD, all the way on the other side, is Greece.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:35.63,0:01:39.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And what you can see is that over the last 25 years,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:39.04,0:01:42.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Greece has barely managed to save more than 10 percent of their GDP.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:42.94,0:01:49.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It should be noted, of course, that the United States and the U.K. are the next in line.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:49.82,0:01:52.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now that we see these huge differences in savings rates,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:52.40,0:01:56.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how is it possible that language might have something to do with these differences?
Dialogue: 0,0:01:56.06,0:01:59.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Let me tell you a little bit about how languages fundamentally differ.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:59.11,0:02:04.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Linguists and cognitive scientists have been exploring this question for many years now.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:04.68,0:02:09.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And then I'll draw the connection between these two behaviors.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:09.29,0:02:11.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Many of you have probably already noticed that I'm Chinese.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:11.90,0:02:14.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I grew up in the Midwest of the United States.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:14.86,0:02:17.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And something I realized quite early on
Dialogue: 0,0:02:17.31,0:02:20.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,was that the Chinese language forced me to speak about and --
Dialogue: 0,0:02:20.90,0:02:23.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in fact, more fundamentally than that --
Dialogue: 0,0:02:23.79,0:02:27.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,ever so slightly forced me to think about family in very different ways.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:27.88,0:02:29.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, how might that be? Let me give you an example.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:29.96,0:02:34.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Suppose I were talking with you and I was introducing you to my uncle.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:34.36,0:02:37.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You understood exactly what I just said in English.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:37.23,0:02:40.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If we were speaking Mandarin Chinese with each other, though,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:40.18,0:02:42.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I wouldn't have that luxury.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:42.24,0:02:45.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I wouldn't have been able to convey so little information.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:45.08,0:02:47.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What my language would have forced me to do,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:47.46,0:02:49.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,instead of just telling you, "This is my uncle,"
Dialogue: 0,0:02:49.46,0:02:52.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is to tell you a tremendous amount of additional information.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:52.74,0:02:54.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,My language would force me to tell you
Dialogue: 0,0:02:54.56,0:02:57.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,whether or not this was an uncle on my mother's side or my father's side,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:57.98,0:03:01.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,whether this was an uncle by marriage or by birth,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:01.06,0:03:03.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and if this man was my father's brother,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:03.30,0:03:06.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,whether he was older than or younger than my father.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:06.08,0:03:10.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,All of this information is obligatory. Chinese doesn't let me ignore it.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:10.21,0:03:12.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And in fact, if I want to speak correctly,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:12.38,0:03:15.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Chinese forces me to constantly think about it.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:15.50,0:03:19.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, that fascinated me endlessly as a child,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:19.44,0:03:22.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but what fascinates me even more today as an economist
Dialogue: 0,0:03:22.68,0:03:27.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is that some of these same differences carry through to how languages speak about time.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:27.98,0:03:32.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So for example, if I'm speaking in English, I have to speak grammatically differently
Dialogue: 0,0:03:32.23,0:03:34.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if I'm talking about past rain, "It rained yesterday,"
Dialogue: 0,0:03:34.96,0:03:37.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,current rain, "It is raining now,"
Dialogue: 0,0:03:37.19,0:03:39.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or future rain, "It will rain tomorrow."
Dialogue: 0,0:03:39.63,0:03:44.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Notice that English requires a lot more information with respect to the timing of events.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:44.46,0:03:46.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Why? Because I have to consider that
Dialogue: 0,0:03:46.46,0:03:51.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I have to modify what I'm saying to say, "It will rain," or "It's going to rain."
Dialogue: 0,0:03:51.24,0:03:55.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's simply not permissible in English to say, "It rain tomorrow."
Dialogue: 0,0:03:55.36,0:03:59.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In contrast to that, that's almost exactly what you would say in Chinese.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:59.54,0:04:01.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,A Chinese speaker can basically say something
Dialogue: 0,0:04:01.86,0:04:04.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that sounds very strange to an English speaker's ears.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:04.44,0:04:09.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They can say, "Yesterday it rain," "Now it rain," "Tomorrow it rain."
Dialogue: 0,0:04:09.01,0:04:12.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In some deep sense, Chinese doesn't divide up the time spectrum
Dialogue: 0,0:04:12.88,0:04:19.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the same way that English forces us to constantly do in order to speak correctly.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:19.31,0:04:20.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Is this difference in languages
Dialogue: 0,0:04:20.89,0:04:25.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,only between very, very distantly related languages, like English and Chinese?
Dialogue: 0,0:04:25.09,0:04:26.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Actually, no.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:26.04,0:04:29.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So many of you know, in this room, that English is a Germanic language.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:29.78,0:04:33.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What you may not have realized is that English is actually an outlier.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:33.69,0:04:36.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It is the only Germanic language that requires this.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:36.94,0:04:39.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For example, most other Germanic language speakers
Dialogue: 0,0:04:39.83,0:04:42.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,feel completely comfortable talking about rain tomorrow
Dialogue: 0,0:04:42.84,0:04:44.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by saying, "Morgen regnet es,"
Dialogue: 0,0:04:44.81,0:04:48.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,quite literally to an English ear, "It rain tomorrow."
Dialogue: 0,0:04:48.71,0:04:53.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This led me, as a behavioral economist, to an intriguing hypothesis.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:53.78,0:04:58.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Could how you speak about time, could how your language forces you to think about time,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:58.03,0:05:01.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,affect your propensity to behave across time?
Dialogue: 0,0:05:01.78,0:05:04.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You speak English, a futured language.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:04.68,0:05:07.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And what that means is that every time you discuss the future,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:07.84,0:05:09.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or any kind of a future event,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:09.41,0:05:12.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,grammatically you're forced to cleave that from the present
Dialogue: 0,0:05:12.81,0:05:15.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and treat it as if it's something viscerally different.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:15.44,0:05:17.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now suppose that that visceral difference
Dialogue: 0,0:05:17.94,0:05:22.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,makes you subtly dissociate the future from the present every time you speak.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:22.14,0:05:24.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If that's true and it makes the future feel
Dialogue: 0,0:05:24.06,0:05:27.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,like something more distant and more different from the present,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:27.04,0:05:29.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that's going to make it harder to save.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:29.69,0:05:32.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If, on the other hand, you speak a futureless language,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:32.24,0:05:35.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the present and the future, you speak about them identically.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:35.63,0:05:38.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If that subtly nudges you to feel about them identically,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:38.61,0:05:40.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that's going to make it easier to save.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:40.99,0:05:43.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now this is a fanciful theory.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:43.54,0:05:46.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'm a professor, I get paid to have fanciful theories.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:46.44,0:05:50.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But how would you actually go about testing such a theory?
Dialogue: 0,0:05:50.68,0:05:54.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, what I did with that was to access the linguistics literature.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:54.74,0:05:59.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And interestingly enough, there are pockets of futureless language speakers
Dialogue: 0,0:05:59.13,0:06:01.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,situated all over the world.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:01.06,0:06:04.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is a pocket of futureless language speakers in Northern Europe.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:04.43,0:06:07.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Interestingly enough, when you start to crank the data,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:07.33,0:06:10.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,these pockets of futureless language speakers all around the world
Dialogue: 0,0:06:10.56,0:06:14.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,turn out to be, by and large, some of the world's best savers.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:14.49,0:06:16.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Just to give you a hint of that,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:16.66,0:06:19.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,let's look back at that OECD graph that we were talking about.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:19.41,0:06:22.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What you see is that these bars are systematically taller
Dialogue: 0,0:06:22.79,0:06:24.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and systematically shifted to the left
Dialogue: 0,0:06:24.93,0:06:29.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,compared to these bars which are the members of the OECD that speak futured languages.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:29.44,0:06:30.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What is the average difference here?
Dialogue: 0,0:06:30.91,0:06:34.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Five percentage points of your GDP saved per year.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:34.19,0:06:38.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Over 25 years that has huge long-run effects on the wealth of your nation.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:38.93,0:06:41.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now while these findings are suggestive,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:41.63,0:06:43.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,countries can be different in so many different ways
Dialogue: 0,0:06:43.69,0:06:48.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that it's very, very difficult sometimes to account for all of these possible differences.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:48.08,0:06:52.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What I'm going to show you, though, is something that I've been engaging in for a year,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:52.11,0:06:54.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which is trying to gather all of the largest datasets
Dialogue: 0,0:06:54.43,0:06:56.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that we have access to as economists,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:56.72,0:07:00.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I'm going to try and strip away all of those possible differences,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:00.11,0:07:02.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,hoping to get this relationship to break.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:02.76,0:07:07.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And just in summary, no matter how far I push this, I can't get it to break.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:07.79,0:07:09.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Let me show you how far you can do that.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:09.56,0:07:14.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,One way to imagine that is I gather large datasets from around the world.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:14.19,0:07:17.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So for example, there is the Survey of Health, [Aging] and Retirement in Europe.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:17.92,0:07:21.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,From this dataset you actually learn that retired European families
Dialogue: 0,0:07:21.76,0:07:24.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are extremely patient with survey takers.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:24.39,0:07:26.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:07:26.31,0:07:30.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So imagine that you're a retired household in Belgium and someone comes to your front door.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:30.69,0:07:35.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Excuse me, would you mind if I peruse your stock portfolio?
Dialogue: 0,0:07:35.27,0:07:38.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Do you happen to know how much your house is worth? Do you mind telling me?
Dialogue: 0,0:07:38.81,0:07:42.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Would you happen to have a hallway that's more than 10 meters long?
Dialogue: 0,0:07:42.07,0:07:46.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you do, would you mind if I timed how long it took you to walk down that hallway?
Dialogue: 0,0:07:46.57,0:07:50.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Would you mind squeezing as hard as you can, in your dominant hand, this device
Dialogue: 0,0:07:50.47,0:07:51.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so I can measure your grip strength?
Dialogue: 0,0:07:51.98,0:07:56.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,How about blowing into this tube so I can measure your lung capacity?"
Dialogue: 0,0:07:56.01,0:07:58.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The survey takes over a day.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:58.89,0:08:00.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:08:00.37,0:08:04.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Combine that with a Demographic and Health Survey
Dialogue: 0,0:08:04.27,0:08:08.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,collected by USAID in developing countries in Africa, for example,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:08.72,0:08:13.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which that survey actually can go so far as to directly measure the HIV status
Dialogue: 0,0:08:13.87,0:08:16.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of families living in, for example, rural Nigeria.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:16.97,0:08:18.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Combine that with a world value survey,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:18.87,0:08:23.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which measures the political opinions and, fortunately for me, the savings behaviors
Dialogue: 0,0:08:23.31,0:08:28.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of millions of families in hundreds of countries around the world.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:28.01,0:08:31.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Take all of that data, combine it, and this map is what you get.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:31.82,0:08:34.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What you find is nine countries around the world
Dialogue: 0,0:08:34.07,0:08:36.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that have significant native populations
Dialogue: 0,0:08:36.73,0:08:40.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which speak both futureless and futured languages.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:40.77,0:08:44.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And what I'm going to do is form statistical matched pairs
Dialogue: 0,0:08:44.31,0:08:49.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,between families that are nearly identical on every dimension that I can measure,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:49.90,0:08:53.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then I'm going to explore whether or not the link between language and savings holds
Dialogue: 0,0:08:53.44,0:08:56.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,even after controlling for all of these levels.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:56.92,0:08:59.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What are the characteristics we can control for?
Dialogue: 0,0:08:59.14,0:09:01.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well I'm going to match families on country of birth and residence,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:01.90,0:09:04.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the demographics -- what sex, their age --
Dialogue: 0,0:09:04.30,0:09:06.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,their income level within their own country,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:06.44,0:09:09.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,their educational achievement, a lot about their family structure.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:09.45,0:09:12.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It turns out there are six different ways to be married in Europe.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:12.97,0:09:17.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And most granularly, I break them down by religion
Dialogue: 0,0:09:17.17,0:09:20.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where there are 72 categories of religions in the world --
Dialogue: 0,0:09:20.48,0:09:22.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so an extreme level of granularity.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:22.20,0:09:26.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There are 1.4 billion different ways that a family can find itself.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:26.74,0:09:30.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now effectively everything I'm going to tell you from now on
Dialogue: 0,0:09:30.78,0:09:33.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is only comparing these basically nearly identical families.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:33.83,0:09:36.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's getting as close as possible to the thought experiment
Dialogue: 0,0:09:36.33,0:09:39.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of finding two families both of whom live in Brussels
Dialogue: 0,0:09:39.27,0:09:42.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who are identical on every single one of these dimensions,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:42.27,0:09:45.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but one of whom speaks Flemish and one of whom speaks French;
Dialogue: 0,0:09:45.38,0:09:48.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or two families that live in a rural district in Nigeria,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:48.10,0:09:51.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,one of whom speaks Hausa and one of whom speaks Igbo.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:51.93,0:09:55.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now even after all of this granular level of control,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:55.82,0:09:58.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,do futureless language speakers seem to save more?
Dialogue: 0,0:09:58.98,0:10:02.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Yes, futureless language speakers, even after this level of control,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:02.64,0:10:06.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are 30 percent more likely to report having saved in any given year.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:06.33,0:10:08.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Does this have cumulative effects?
Dialogue: 0,0:10:08.15,0:10:12.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Yes, by the time they retire, futureless language speakers, holding constant their income,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:12.57,0:10:15.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are going to retire with 25 percent more in savings.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:15.64,0:10:18.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Can we push this data even further?
Dialogue: 0,0:10:18.12,0:10:23.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Yes, because I just told you, we actually collect a lot of health data as economists.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:23.42,0:10:27.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now how can we think about health behaviors to think about savings?
Dialogue: 0,0:10:27.30,0:10:30.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, think about smoking, for example.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:30.13,0:10:33.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Smoking is in some deep sense negative savings.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:33.32,0:10:36.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If savings is current pain in exchange for future pleasure,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:36.98,0:10:38.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,smoking is just the opposite.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:38.29,0:10:41.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's current pleasure in exchange for future pain.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:41.15,0:10:44.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What we should expect then is the opposite effect.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:44.10,0:10:45.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And that's exactly what we find.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:45.87,0:10:49.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Futureless language speakers are 20 to 24 percent less likely
Dialogue: 0,0:10:49.64,0:10:53.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to be smoking at any given point in time compared to identical families,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:53.05,0:10:55.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they're going to be 13 to 17 percent less likely
Dialogue: 0,0:10:55.95,0:10:58.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to be obese by the time they retire,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:58.17,0:11:00.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they're going to report being 21 percent more likely
Dialogue: 0,0:11:00.63,0:11:02.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to have used a condom in their last sexual encounter.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:02.92,0:11:06.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I could go on and on with the list of differences that you can find.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:06.40,0:11:10.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's almost impossible not to find a savings behavior
Dialogue: 0,0:11:10.20,0:11:12.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for which this strong effect isn't present.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:12.80,0:11:17.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,My linguistics and economics colleagues at Yale and I are just starting to do this work
Dialogue: 0,0:11:17.55,0:11:22.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and really explore and understand the ways that these subtle nudges
Dialogue: 0,0:11:22.72,0:11:28.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,cause us to think more or less about the future every single time we speak.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:28.11,0:11:30.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Ultimately, the goal,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:30.41,0:11:34.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,once we understand how these subtle effects can change our decision making,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:34.61,0:11:37.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we want to be able to provide people tools
Dialogue: 0,0:11:37.56,0:11:40.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so that they can consciously make themselves better savers
Dialogue: 0,0:11:40.37,0:11:43.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and more conscious investors in their own future.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:43.63,0:11:45.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Thank you very much.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:45.90,0:11:52.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Applause)