[Script Info]
Title: 
[Events]
Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text
Dialogue: 0,0:00:01.29,0:00:05.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In this talk today, I want to present a different idea
Dialogue: 0,0:00:05.77,0:00:09.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for why investing in early childhood education
Dialogue: 0,0:00:09.100,0:00:12.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,makes sense as a public investment.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:12.69,0:00:14.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's a different idea, because usually,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:14.93,0:00:16.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when people talk about early childhood programs,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:16.30,0:00:19.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they talk about all the wonderful benefits for participants
Dialogue: 0,0:00:19.65,0:00:22.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in terms of former participants, in preschool,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:22.93,0:00:25.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they have better K-12 test scores,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:25.19,0:00:27.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,better adult earnings.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:27.31,0:00:29.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now that's all very important,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:29.42,0:00:33.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but what I want to talk about is what preschool does
Dialogue: 0,0:00:33.52,0:00:35.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for state economies
Dialogue: 0,0:00:35.34,0:00:38.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and for promoting state economic development.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:38.64,0:00:41.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And that's actually crucial
Dialogue: 0,0:00:41.93,0:00:45.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because if we're going to get increased investment
Dialogue: 0,0:00:45.26,0:00:47.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in early childhood programs,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:47.60,0:00:51.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we need to interest state governments in this.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:51.12,0:00:53.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The federal government has a lot on its plate,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:53.35,0:00:55.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and state governments are going to have to step up.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:55.84,0:00:58.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So we have to appeal to them,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:58.03,0:01:00.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the legislators in the state government,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:00.58,0:01:02.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and turn to something they understand,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:02.57,0:01:04.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that they have to promote the economic development
Dialogue: 0,0:01:04.87,0:01:06.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of their state economy.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:06.56,0:01:08.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, by promoting economic development,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:08.37,0:01:10.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I don't mean anything magical.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:10.09,0:01:13.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,All I mean is, is that early childhood education
Dialogue: 0,0:01:13.55,0:01:17.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,can bring more and better jobs to a state
Dialogue: 0,0:01:17.45,0:01:20.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and can thereby promote higher per capita earnings
Dialogue: 0,0:01:20.63,0:01:22.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for the state's residents.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:22.58,0:01:26.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, I think it's fair to say that when people think about
Dialogue: 0,0:01:26.57,0:01:28.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,state and local economic development,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:28.58,0:01:32.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they don't generally think first about what they're doing
Dialogue: 0,0:01:32.36,0:01:34.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about childcare and early childhood programs.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:34.91,0:01:38.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I know this. I've spent most of my career researching these programs.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:38.82,0:01:40.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I've talked to a lot of directors
Dialogue: 0,0:01:40.44,0:01:42.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of state economic development agencies about these issues,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:42.77,0:01:45.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a lot of legislators about these issues.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:45.31,0:01:48.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When legislators and others think about economic development,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:48.37,0:01:51.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what they first of all think about are business tax incentives,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:51.62,0:01:54.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,property tax abatements, job creation tax credits,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:54.50,0:01:57.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you know, there are a million of these programs all over the place.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:57.19,0:01:59.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So for example, states compete very vigorously
Dialogue: 0,0:01:59.80,0:02:03.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to attract new auto plants or expanded auto plants.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:03.46,0:02:05.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They hand out all kinds of business tax breaks.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:05.60,0:02:07.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, those programs can make sense
Dialogue: 0,0:02:07.80,0:02:10.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if they in fact induce new location decisions,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:10.80,0:02:12.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the way they can make sense is,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:12.19,0:02:14.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by creating more and better jobs,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:14.50,0:02:18.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they raise employment rates, raise per capita earnings of state residents.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:18.08,0:02:20.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So there is a benefit to state residents
Dialogue: 0,0:02:20.15,0:02:22.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that corresponds to the costs that they're paying
Dialogue: 0,0:02:22.30,0:02:24.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by paying for these business tax breaks.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:24.57,0:02:28.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,My argument is essentially that early childhood programs
Dialogue: 0,0:02:28.38,0:02:32.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,can do exactly the same thing,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:32.11,0:02:36.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,create more and better jobs, but in a different way.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:36.02,0:02:38.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's a somewhat more indirect way.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:38.43,0:02:42.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,These programs can promote more and better jobs by,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:42.08,0:02:44.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you build it, you invest in high-quality preschool,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:44.96,0:02:48.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it develops the skills of your local workforce
Dialogue: 0,0:02:48.77,0:02:52.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if enough of them stick around, and, in turn,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:52.52,0:02:54.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that higher-quality local workforce
Dialogue: 0,0:02:54.67,0:02:59.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,will be a key driver of creating jobs and creating
Dialogue: 0,0:02:59.36,0:03:01.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,higher earnings per capita in the local community.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:01.87,0:03:04.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, let me turn to some numbers on this.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:04.83,0:03:09.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Okay. If you look at the research evidence --
Dialogue: 0,0:03:09.42,0:03:14.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that's extensive -- on how much early childhood programs
Dialogue: 0,0:03:14.08,0:03:18.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,affect the educational attainment, wages and skills
Dialogue: 0,0:03:18.68,0:03:22.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of former participants in preschool as adults,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:22.18,0:03:24.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you take those known effects,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:24.82,0:03:27.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you take how many of those folks will be expected
Dialogue: 0,0:03:27.51,0:03:31.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to stick around the state or local economy and not move out,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:31.21,0:03:35.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and you take research on how much skills
Dialogue: 0,0:03:35.03,0:03:38.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,drive job creation, you will conclude,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:38.20,0:03:40.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from these three separate lines of research,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:40.24,0:03:44.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that for every dollar invested in early childhood programs,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:44.32,0:03:47.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the per capita earnings of state residents
Dialogue: 0,0:03:47.78,0:03:50.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,go up by two dollars and 78 cents,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:50.54,0:03:52.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so that's a three-to-one return.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:52.41,0:03:55.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now you can get much higher returns,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:55.44,0:03:59.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of up to 16-to-one, if you include anti-crime benefits,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:59.52,0:04:04.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if you include benefits to former preschool participants
Dialogue: 0,0:04:04.23,0:04:06.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who move to some other state,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:06.41,0:04:09.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but there's a good reason for focusing on these three dollars
Dialogue: 0,0:04:09.42,0:04:11.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because this is salient and important
Dialogue: 0,0:04:11.51,0:04:13.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to state legislators and state policy makers,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:13.80,0:04:15.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it's the states that are going to have to act.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:15.95,0:04:19.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So there is this key benefit that is relevant
Dialogue: 0,0:04:19.24,0:04:22.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to state policy makers in terms of economic development.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:22.49,0:04:25.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, one objection you often hear,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:25.91,0:04:30.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or maybe you don't hear it because people are too polite to say it, is,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:30.81,0:04:35.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,why should I pay more taxes
Dialogue: 0,0:04:35.27,0:04:39.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to invest in other people's children?
Dialogue: 0,0:04:39.55,0:04:42.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What's in it for me?
Dialogue: 0,0:04:42.04,0:04:44.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the trouble with that objection,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:44.32,0:04:48.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it reflects a total misunderstanding
Dialogue: 0,0:04:48.32,0:04:51.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of how much local economies
Dialogue: 0,0:04:51.34,0:04:54.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,involve everyone being interdependent.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:54.85,0:04:58.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Specifically, the interdependency here is, is that
Dialogue: 0,0:04:58.76,0:05:02.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there are huge spillovers of skills --
Dialogue: 0,0:05:02.30,0:05:07.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that when other people's children get more skills,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:07.62,0:05:11.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that actually increases the prosperity of everyone,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:11.39,0:05:14.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,including people whose skills don't change.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:14.74,0:05:17.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So for example, numerous research studies have shown
Dialogue: 0,0:05:17.14,0:05:19.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if you look at what really drives
Dialogue: 0,0:05:19.72,0:05:22.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the growth rate of metropolitan areas,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:22.19,0:05:27.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's not so much low taxes, low cost, low wages;
Dialogue: 0,0:05:27.86,0:05:31.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's the skills of the area. Particularly, the proxy for skills
Dialogue: 0,0:05:31.48,0:05:35.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that people use is percentage of college graduates in the area.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:35.02,0:05:38.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So when you look, for example, at metropolitan areas
Dialogue: 0,0:05:38.10,0:05:41.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,such as the Boston area, Minneapolis-St. Paul,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:41.61,0:05:46.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Silicon Valley, these areas are not doing well economically
Dialogue: 0,0:05:46.94,0:05:49.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because they're low-cost.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:49.25,0:05:51.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I don't know if you ever tried to buy a house in Silicon Valley.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:51.18,0:05:53.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's not exactly a low-cost proposition.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:53.100,0:05:59.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They are growing because they have high levels of skills.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:59.94,0:06:03.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So when we invest in other people's children,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:03.10,0:06:07.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and build up those skills, we increase the overall job growth
Dialogue: 0,0:06:07.28,0:06:08.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of a metro area.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:08.80,0:06:12.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,As another example, if we look
Dialogue: 0,0:06:12.69,0:06:15.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,at what determines an individual's wages,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:15.92,0:06:20.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we do statistical exploration of that, what determines wages,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:20.15,0:06:24.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we know that the individual's wages will depend, in part,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:24.67,0:06:27.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on that individual's education,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:27.10,0:06:30.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for example whether or not they have a college degree.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:30.10,0:06:33.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,One of the very interesting facts is that, in addition,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:33.43,0:06:37.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we find that even once we hold constant, statistically,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:37.48,0:06:40.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the effect of your own education,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:40.38,0:06:43.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the education of everyone else in your metropolitan area
Dialogue: 0,0:06:43.58,0:06:45.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,also affects your wages.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:45.56,0:06:49.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So specifically, if you hold constant your education,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:49.76,0:06:53.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you stick in percentage of college graduates in your metro area,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:53.86,0:06:57.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you will find that has a significant positive effect on your wages
Dialogue: 0,0:06:57.82,0:07:01.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,without changing your education at all.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:01.29,0:07:04.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In fact, this effect is so strong
Dialogue: 0,0:07:04.44,0:07:08.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that when someone gets a college degree,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:08.26,0:07:10.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the spillover effects of this on the wages
Dialogue: 0,0:07:10.70,0:07:12.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of others in the metropolitan area
Dialogue: 0,0:07:12.59,0:07:15.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are actually greater than the direct effects.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:15.69,0:07:19.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So if someone gets a college degree, their lifetime earnings
Dialogue: 0,0:07:19.15,0:07:22.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,go up by a huge amount, over 700,000 dollars.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:22.46,0:07:24.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There's an effect on everyone else in the metro area
Dialogue: 0,0:07:24.98,0:07:28.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of driving up the percentage of college graduates in the metro area,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:28.84,0:07:32.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and if you add that up -- it's a small effect for each person,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:32.26,0:07:35.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but if you add that up across all the people in the metro area,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:35.69,0:07:39.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you actually get that the increase in wages for everyone else
Dialogue: 0,0:07:39.31,0:07:42.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the metropolitan area adds up to almost a million dollars.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:42.23,0:07:44.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's actually greater than the direct benefits
Dialogue: 0,0:07:44.30,0:07:47.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of the person choosing to get education.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:47.36,0:07:48.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, what's going on here?
Dialogue: 0,0:07:48.72,0:07:52.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What can explain these huge spillover effects of education?
Dialogue: 0,0:07:52.64,0:07:54.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, let's think about it this way.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:54.12,0:07:57.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I can be the most skilled person in the world,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:57.44,0:08:01.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but if everyone else at my firm lacks skills,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:01.24,0:08:04.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,my employer is going to find it more difficult
Dialogue: 0,0:08:04.21,0:08:08.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to introduce new technology, new production techniques.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:08.26,0:08:11.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So as a result, my employer is going to be less productive.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:11.87,0:08:15.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They will not be able to afford to pay me as good wages.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:15.47,0:08:19.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Even if everyone at my firm has good skills,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:19.15,0:08:22.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if the workers at the suppliers to my firm
Dialogue: 0,0:08:22.66,0:08:24.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,do not have good skills,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:24.63,0:08:27.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,my firm is going to be less competitive
Dialogue: 0,0:08:27.02,0:08:29.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,competing in national and international markets.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:29.41,0:08:32.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And again, the firm that's less competitive
Dialogue: 0,0:08:32.50,0:08:35.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,will not be able to pay as good wages,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:35.19,0:08:39.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then, particularly in high-tech businesses,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:39.32,0:08:42.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they're constantly stealing ideas and workers from other businesses.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:42.58,0:08:45.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So clearly the productivity of firms in Silicon Valley
Dialogue: 0,0:08:45.80,0:08:49.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,has a lot to do with the skills not only of the workers at their firm,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:49.60,0:08:54.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but the workers at all the other firms in the metro area.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:54.02,0:08:57.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So as a result, if we can invest in other people's children
Dialogue: 0,0:08:57.55,0:08:59.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,through preschool and other early childhood programs
Dialogue: 0,0:08:59.96,0:09:03.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that are high-quality, we not only help those children,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:03.61,0:09:07.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we help everyone in the metropolitan area
Dialogue: 0,0:09:07.23,0:09:10.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,gain in wages and we'll have the metropolitan area
Dialogue: 0,0:09:10.90,0:09:12.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,gain in job growth.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:12.92,0:09:15.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Another objection used sometimes here
Dialogue: 0,0:09:15.46,0:09:17.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to invest in early childhood programs
Dialogue: 0,0:09:17.68,0:09:21.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is concern about people moving out.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:21.40,0:09:25.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, you know, maybe Ohio's thinking about investing
Dialogue: 0,0:09:25.64,0:09:27.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in more preschool education
Dialogue: 0,0:09:27.88,0:09:31.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for children in Columbus, Ohio,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:31.69,0:09:33.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but they're worried that these little Buckeyes will,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:33.95,0:09:36.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for some strange reason, decide to move to Ann Arbor, Michigan,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:36.87,0:09:38.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and become Wolverines.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:38.39,0:09:41.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And maybe Michigan will be thinking about investing
Dialogue: 0,0:09:41.68,0:09:44.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in preschool in Ann Arbor, Michigan, and be worried
Dialogue: 0,0:09:44.12,0:09:47.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,these little Wolverines will end up moving to Ohio and becoming Buckeyes.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:47.36,0:09:51.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so they'll both underinvest because everyone's going to move out.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:51.35,0:09:54.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, the reality is, if you look at the data,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:54.29,0:09:58.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Americans aren't as hyper-mobile as people sometimes assume.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:58.50,0:10:03.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The data is that over 60 percent of Americans
Dialogue: 0,0:10:03.62,0:10:06.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,spend most of their working careers
Dialogue: 0,0:10:06.06,0:10:09.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the state they were born in, over 60 percent.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:09.83,0:10:13.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That percentage does not vary much from state to state.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:13.93,0:10:17.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It doesn't vary much with the state's economy,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:17.03,0:10:18.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,whether it's depressed or booming,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:18.83,0:10:21.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it doesn't vary much over time.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:21.15,0:10:26.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So the reality is, if you invest in kids,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:26.96,0:10:29.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they will stay.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:29.46,0:10:32.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Or at least, enough of them will stay
Dialogue: 0,0:10:32.50,0:10:35.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that it will pay off for your state economy.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:35.92,0:10:39.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Okay, so to sum up, there is a lot of research evidence
Dialogue: 0,0:10:39.84,0:10:42.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that early childhood programs, if run in a high-quality way,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:42.100,0:10:45.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,pay off in higher adult skills.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:45.85,0:10:47.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There's a lot of research evidence
Dialogue: 0,0:10:47.42,0:10:51.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that those folks will stick around the state economy,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:51.04,0:10:54.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and there's a lot of evidence that having more workers
Dialogue: 0,0:10:54.36,0:10:56.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with higher skills in your local economy
Dialogue: 0,0:10:56.45,0:11:00.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,pays off in higher wages and job growth for your local economy,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:00.13,0:11:03.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and if you calculate the numbers for each dollar,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:03.57,0:11:06.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we get about three dollars back
Dialogue: 0,0:11:06.30,0:11:08.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in benefits for the state economy.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:08.48,0:11:12.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So in my opinion, the research evidence is compelling
Dialogue: 0,0:11:12.09,0:11:14.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the logic of this is compelling.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:14.91,0:11:18.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So what are the barriers to getting it done?
Dialogue: 0,0:11:18.60,0:11:21.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, one obvious barrier is cost.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:21.87,0:11:26.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So if you look at what it would cost
Dialogue: 0,0:11:26.20,0:11:29.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if every state government invested
Dialogue: 0,0:11:29.02,0:11:33.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in universal preschool at age four, full-day preschool at age four,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:33.23,0:11:36.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the total annual national cost would be roughly
Dialogue: 0,0:11:36.64,0:11:38.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,30 billion dollars.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:38.95,0:11:41.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, 30 billion dollars is a lot of money.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:41.38,0:11:45.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,On the other hand, if you reflect on
Dialogue: 0,0:11:45.12,0:11:48.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that the U.S.'s population is over 300 million,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:48.98,0:11:51.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we're talking about an amount of money
Dialogue: 0,0:11:51.66,0:11:54.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that amounts to 100 dollars per capita.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:54.28,0:11:57.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Okay? A hundred dollars per capita, per person,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:57.26,0:12:01.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is something that any state government can afford to do.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:01.27,0:12:06.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's just a simple matter of political will to do it.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:06.02,0:12:07.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And, of course, as I mentioned,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:07.90,0:12:10.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this cost has corresponding benefits.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:10.05,0:12:12.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I mentioned there's a multiplier of about three,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:12.22,0:12:14.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,2.78, for the state economy,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:14.32,0:12:17.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in terms of over 80 billion in extra earnings.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:17.35,0:12:20.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And if we want to translate that from just billions of dollars
Dialogue: 0,0:12:20.38,0:12:22.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to something that might mean something,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:22.27,0:12:25.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what we're talking about is that, for the average low-income kid,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:25.86,0:12:28.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that would increase earnings by about 10 percent
Dialogue: 0,0:12:28.98,0:12:32.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,over their whole career, just doing the preschool,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:32.18,0:12:34.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not improving K-12 or anything else after that,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:34.69,0:12:37.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not doing anything with college tuition or access,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:37.24,0:12:39.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,just directly improving preschool,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:39.93,0:12:42.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we would get five percent higher earnings
Dialogue: 0,0:12:42.23,0:12:43.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for middle-class kids.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:43.63,0:12:45.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So this is an investment
Dialogue: 0,0:12:45.69,0:12:48.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that pays off in very concrete terms
Dialogue: 0,0:12:48.60,0:12:53.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for a broad range of income groups in the state's population
Dialogue: 0,0:12:53.02,0:12:57.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and produces large and tangible benefits.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:57.53,0:13:00.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, that's one barrier.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:00.09,0:13:03.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I actually think the more profound barrier
Dialogue: 0,0:13:03.51,0:13:07.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is the long-term nature of the benefits from early childhood programs.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:07.94,0:13:10.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So the argument I'm making is, is that we're increasing
Dialogue: 0,0:13:10.78,0:13:12.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the quality of our local workforce,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:12.54,0:13:15.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and thereby increasing economic development.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:15.20,0:13:18.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Obviously if we have a preschool with four-year-olds,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:18.58,0:13:20.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we're not sending these kids out at age five
Dialogue: 0,0:13:20.95,0:13:24.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to work in the sweatshops, right? At least I hope not.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:24.47,0:13:27.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So we're talking about an investment
Dialogue: 0,0:13:27.88,0:13:30.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that in terms of impacts on the state economy
Dialogue: 0,0:13:30.35,0:13:34.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is not going to really pay off for 15 or 20 years,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:34.31,0:13:37.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and of course America is notorious for being
Dialogue: 0,0:13:37.17,0:13:40.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a short term-oriented society.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:40.18,0:13:41.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now one response you can make to this,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:41.84,0:13:43.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I sometimes have done this in talks,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:43.36,0:13:46.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is people can talk about, there are benefits for these programs
Dialogue: 0,0:13:46.44,0:13:50.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in reducing special ed and remedial education costs,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:50.08,0:13:52.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there are benefits, parents care about preschool,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:52.39,0:13:54.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,maybe we'll get some migration effects
Dialogue: 0,0:13:54.64,0:13:56.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from parents seeking good preschool,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:56.96,0:13:58.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I think those are true,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:58.61,0:14:00.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but in some sense they're missing the point.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:00.77,0:14:03.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Ultimately, this is something
Dialogue: 0,0:14:03.34,0:14:07.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we're investing in now for the future.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:07.26,0:14:11.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so what I want to leave you with is
Dialogue: 0,0:14:11.21,0:14:13.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what I think is the ultimate question.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:13.52,0:14:16.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I mean, I'm an economist, but this is ultimately
Dialogue: 0,0:14:16.35,0:14:21.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not an economic question, it's a moral question:
Dialogue: 0,0:14:21.90,0:14:26.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Are we willing, as Americans,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:26.10,0:14:29.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are we as a society still capable
Dialogue: 0,0:14:29.56,0:14:34.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of making the political choice to sacrifice now
Dialogue: 0,0:14:34.34,0:14:36.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by paying more taxes
Dialogue: 0,0:14:36.99,0:14:42.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in order to improve the long-term future
Dialogue: 0,0:14:42.19,0:14:45.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of not only our kids, but our community?
Dialogue: 0,0:14:45.61,0:14:50.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Are we still capable of that as a country?
Dialogue: 0,0:14:50.06,0:14:52.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And that's something that each and every citizen
Dialogue: 0,0:14:52.50,0:14:55.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and voter needs to ask themselves.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:55.04,0:14:57.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Is that something that you are still invested in,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:57.99,0:15:00.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that you still believe in the notion of investment?
Dialogue: 0,0:15:00.72,0:15:02.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That is the notion of investment.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:02.12,0:15:04.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You sacrifice now for a return later.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:04.69,0:15:08.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So I think the research evidence
Dialogue: 0,0:15:08.33,0:15:10.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on the benefits of early childhood programs
Dialogue: 0,0:15:10.97,0:15:14.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for the local economy is extremely strong.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:14.58,0:15:18.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,However, the moral and political choice
Dialogue: 0,0:15:18.86,0:15:23.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is still up to us, as citizens and as voters.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:23.96,0:15:27.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Thank you very much. (Applause)