0:00:00.000,0:00:02.239
I'll just start talking[br]about the 17th century.

0:00:02.263,0:00:03.976
I hope nobody finds that offensive.

0:00:04.000,0:00:06.976
I -- you know, when I --[br]after I had invented PCR,

0:00:07.000,0:00:08.976
I kind of needed a change.

0:00:09.000,0:00:11.976
And I moved down to La Jolla[br]and learned how to surf.

0:00:12.000,0:00:14.976
And I started living down there[br]on the beach for a long time.

0:00:15.000,0:00:16.976
And when surfers are out waiting

0:00:17.000,0:00:18.976
for waves,

0:00:19.000,0:00:20.976
you probably wonder, if you've never[br]been out there, what are they doing?

0:00:21.000,0:00:22.976
You know, sometimes there's a 10-,[br]15-minute break out there

0:00:23.000,0:00:25.000
when you're waiting for a wave to come in.

0:00:25.024,0:00:27.024
They usually talk about the 17th century.

0:00:28.000,0:00:30.976
You know, they get a real[br]bad rap in the world.

0:00:31.000,0:00:34.000
People think they're sort of lowbrows.

0:00:35.000,0:00:37.143
One day, somebody suggested[br]I read this book.

0:00:37.167,0:00:38.976
It was called --

0:00:39.000,0:00:40.976
it was called "The Air Pump,"

0:00:41.000,0:00:43.429
or something like "The[br]Leviathan and The Air Pump."

0:00:43.453,0:00:45.976
It was a real weird book[br]about the 17th century.

0:00:46.000,0:00:47.976
And I realized, the roots

0:00:48.000,0:00:49.976
of the way I sort of thought

0:00:50.000,0:00:52.976
was just the only natural[br]way to think about things.

0:00:53.000,0:00:55.976
That -- you know, I was born[br]thinking about things that way,

0:00:56.000,0:00:57.976
and I had always[br]been like a little scientist guy.

0:00:58.000,0:00:59.976
And when I went to find out something,

0:01:00.000,0:01:01.976
I used scientific methods.[br]I wasn't real surprised,

0:01:02.000,0:01:03.976
you know, when they first told me how --

0:01:04.000,0:01:05.976
how you were supposed to do science,

0:01:06.000,0:01:09.000
because I'd already been doing it[br]for fun and whatever.

0:01:10.000,0:01:12.976
But it didn't -- it never occurred to me

0:01:13.000,0:01:14.976
that it had to be invented

0:01:15.000,0:01:16.976
and that it had been invented

0:01:17.000,0:01:18.976
only 350 years ago.

0:01:19.000,0:01:20.976
You know, it was --

0:01:21.000,0:01:23.976
like it happened in England,[br]and Germany, and Italy

0:01:24.000,0:01:25.976
sort of all at the same time.

0:01:26.000,0:01:27.976
And the story of that,

0:01:28.000,0:01:29.976
I thought, was really fascinating.

0:01:30.000,0:01:32.143
So I'm going to talk[br]a little bit about that,

0:01:32.167,0:01:34.976
and what exactly is it[br]that scientists are supposed to do.

0:01:35.000,0:01:36.976
And it's, it's a kind of --

0:01:37.000,0:01:40.976
You know, Charles I got beheaded

0:01:41.000,0:01:42.976
somewhere early in the 17th century.

0:01:43.000,0:01:44.976
And the English set up Cromwell

0:01:45.000,0:01:47.143
and a whole bunch[br]of Republicans or whatever,

0:01:47.167,0:01:49.167
and not the kind of Republicans we had.

0:01:50.000,0:01:53.000
They changed the government,[br]and it didn't work.

0:01:54.000,0:01:56.000
And

0:01:57.000,0:01:59.000
Charles II, the son,

0:02:01.000,0:02:03.191
was finally put back[br]on the throne of England.

0:02:03.215,0:02:05.501
He was really nervous,[br]because his dad had been,

0:02:06.000,0:02:08.286
you know, beheaded for being[br]the King of England

0:02:08.310,0:02:10.310
And he was nervous about the fact

0:02:11.000,0:02:12.976
that conversations that got going

0:02:13.000,0:02:14.976
in, like, bars and stuff

0:02:15.000,0:02:16.976
would turn to --

0:02:17.000,0:02:18.976
this is kind of -- it's hard to believe,

0:02:19.000,0:02:20.976
but people in the 17th century in England

0:02:21.000,0:02:22.976
were starting to talk about, you know,

0:02:23.000,0:02:24.976
philosophy and stuff in bars.

0:02:25.000,0:02:26.976
They didn't have TV screens,

0:02:27.000,0:02:29.334
and they didn't have[br]any football games to watch.

0:02:29.358,0:02:30.976
And they would get really pissy,

0:02:31.000,0:02:34.239
and all of a sudden people would spill[br]out into the street and fight

0:02:34.263,0:02:35.976
about issues like whether or not

0:02:36.000,0:02:38.976
it was okay if Robert Boyle

0:02:39.000,0:02:40.976
made a device called the vacuum pump.

0:02:41.000,0:02:43.976
Now, Boyle was a friend of Charles II.

0:02:44.000,0:02:46.976
He was a Christian guy[br]during the weekends,

0:02:47.000,0:02:49.976
but during the week he was a scientist.

0:02:50.000,0:02:50.976
(Laughter)

0:02:51.000,0:02:52.976
Which was -- back then it was

0:02:53.000,0:02:55.976
sort of, you know, well, you know --

0:02:56.000,0:02:58.524
if you made this thing --[br]he made this little device,

0:02:58.548,0:03:00.976
like kind of like a bicycle pump

0:03:01.000,0:03:03.976
in reverse that could suck[br]all the air out of --

0:03:04.000,0:03:05.976
you know what a bell jar is?[br]One of these things,

0:03:06.000,0:03:08.334
you pick it up, put it[br]down, and it's got a seal,

0:03:08.358,0:03:09.976
and you can see inside of it,

0:03:10.000,0:03:11.976
so you can see what's going[br]on inside this thing.

0:03:12.000,0:03:14.976
But what he was trying to do[br]was to pump all the air out of there,

0:03:15.000,0:03:16.976
and see what would happen inside there.

0:03:17.000,0:03:20.048
I mean, the first -- I think[br]one of the first experiments he did

0:03:21.000,0:03:22.976
was he put a bird in there.

0:03:23.000,0:03:25.976
And people in the 17th century,

0:03:26.000,0:03:28.976
they didn't really understand[br]the same way we do

0:03:29.000,0:03:30.976
about you know, this stuff is

0:03:31.000,0:03:33.976
a bunch of different kinds of molecules,

0:03:34.000,0:03:36.976
and we breathe it[br]in for a purpose and all that.

0:03:37.000,0:03:38.976
I mean, fish don't know much about water,

0:03:39.000,0:03:41.976
and people didn't know much about air.

0:03:42.000,0:03:43.976
But both started exploring it.

0:03:44.000,0:03:45.976
One thing, he put a bird in there,[br]and he pumped all the air out,

0:03:46.000,0:03:47.976
and the bird died. So he said, hmm...

0:03:48.000,0:03:50.976
He said -- he called[br]what he'd done as making --

0:03:51.000,0:03:53.191
they didn't call it[br]a vacuum pump at the time.

0:03:53.215,0:03:55.976
Now you call it a vacuum[br]pump; he called it a vacuum.

0:03:56.000,0:03:58.976
Right? And immediately,

0:03:59.000,0:04:00.976
he got into trouble with the local clergy

0:04:01.000,0:04:03.976
who said, you can't make a vacuum.

0:04:04.000,0:04:05.976
Ah, uh --

0:04:06.000,0:04:08.976
(Laughter)

0:04:09.000,0:04:10.976
Aristotle said that nature abhors one.

0:04:11.000,0:04:13.096
I think it was a poor[br]translation, probably,

0:04:13.120,0:04:15.976
but people relied[br]on authorities like that.

0:04:16.000,0:04:18.976
And you know, Boyle says, well, shit.

0:04:19.000,0:04:20.976
I make them all the time.

0:04:21.000,0:04:23.976
I mean, whatever[br]that is that kills the bird --

0:04:24.000,0:04:25.976
and I'm calling it a vacuum.

0:04:26.000,0:04:28.976
And the religious people said that

0:04:29.000,0:04:31.976
if God wanted you to make --

0:04:32.000,0:04:33.976
I mean, God is everywhere,

0:04:34.000,0:04:36.381
that was one of their rules,[br]is God is everywhere.

0:04:36.405,0:04:38.501
And a vacuum --[br]there's nothing in a vacuum,

0:04:38.525,0:04:40.976
so you've -- God couldn't be in there.

0:04:41.000,0:04:44.239
So therefore the church said that you[br]can't make a vacuum, you know.

0:04:44.263,0:04:45.976
And Boyle said, bullshit.

0:04:46.000,0:04:47.976
I mean, you want to call it Godless,

0:04:48.000,0:04:49.976
you know, you call it Godless.

0:04:50.000,0:04:51.976
But that's not my job. I'm not into that.

0:04:52.000,0:04:54.000
I do that on the weekend. And like --

0:04:55.000,0:04:57.976
what I'm trying to do[br]is figure out what happens

0:04:58.000,0:05:00.976
when you suck everything[br]out of a compartment.

0:05:01.000,0:05:03.143
And he did all these[br]cute little experiments.

0:05:03.167,0:05:05.976
Like he did one with --[br]he had a little wheel,

0:05:06.000,0:05:08.000
like a fan, that was

0:05:09.000,0:05:11.976
sort of loosely attached,[br]so it could spin by itself.

0:05:12.000,0:05:13.976
He had another fan opposed to it

0:05:14.000,0:05:15.976
that he had like a --

0:05:16.000,0:05:17.976
I mean, the way I would have done[br]this would be, like, a rubber band,

0:05:18.000,0:05:20.239
and, you know, around a tinker[br]toy kind of fan.

0:05:20.263,0:05:23.263
I know exactly how he did[br]it; I've seen the drawings.

0:05:24.000,0:05:25.976
It's two fans, one which he could[br]turn from outside

0:05:26.000,0:05:27.976
after he got the vacuum established,

0:05:28.000,0:05:30.976
and he discovered that if he pulled[br]all the air out of it,

0:05:31.000,0:05:33.976
the one fan would no longer[br]turn the other one, right?

0:05:34.000,0:05:36.976
Something was missing, you know.[br]I mean, these are --

0:05:37.000,0:05:38.976
it's kind of weird to think that someone[br]had to do an experiment to show that,

0:05:39.000,0:05:42.000
but that was what was going[br]on at the time.

0:05:43.976,0:05:45.976
And like, there was big arguments about it

0:05:46.000,0:05:49.286
in the -- you know, the gin houses[br]and in the coffee shops and stuff.

0:05:50.000,0:05:51.976
And Charles

0:05:52.000,0:05:53.976
started not liking that.

0:05:54.000,0:05:56.000
Charles II was kind of saying, you[br]know, you should keep that --

0:05:57.000,0:05:59.976
let's make a place where[br]you can do this stuff

0:06:00.000,0:06:01.976
where people don't get so -- you know,

0:06:02.000,0:06:04.976
we don't want the -- we don't want to get[br]the people mad at me again. And so --

0:06:05.000,0:06:07.976
because when they started[br]talking about religion

0:06:08.000,0:06:09.976
and science and stuff like that,

0:06:10.000,0:06:12.667
that's when it had sort of gotten[br]his father in trouble.

0:06:12.691,0:06:13.976
And so,

0:06:14.000,0:06:16.048
Charles said, I'm going[br]to put up the money

0:06:16.072,0:06:17.976
give you guys a building,

0:06:18.000,0:06:20.048
come here and you can[br]meet in the building,

0:06:20.072,0:06:22.168
but just don't talk[br]about religion in there.

0:06:22.192,0:06:23.976
And that was fine with Boyle.

0:06:24.000,0:06:26.667
He said, OK, we're going[br]to start having these meetings.

0:06:26.691,0:06:28.976
And anybody who wants to do science is --

0:06:29.000,0:06:30.976
this is about the time that Isaac[br]Newton was starting to whip out

0:06:31.000,0:06:32.976
a lot of really interesting things.

0:06:33.000,0:06:36.334
And there was all kind of people[br]that would come to the Royal Society,

0:06:36.358,0:06:38.976
they called it. You had to be[br]dressed up pretty well.

0:06:39.000,0:06:40.976
It wasn't like a TED conference.

0:06:41.000,0:06:42.976
That was the only criteria,[br]was that you be --

0:06:43.000,0:06:46.000
you looked like a gentleman,[br]and they'd let anybody could come.

0:06:46.024,0:06:47.976
You didn't have to be a member then.

0:06:48.000,0:06:50.191
And so, they would come[br]in and you would do --

0:06:50.215,0:06:52.976
Anybody that was going[br]to show an experiment,

0:06:53.000,0:06:54.976
which was kind of a new word at the time,

0:06:55.000,0:06:56.976
demonstrate some principle,

0:06:57.000,0:06:59.976
they had to do it on stage,[br]where everybody could see it.

0:07:00.000,0:07:01.976
So they were --

0:07:02.000,0:07:03.976
the really important part of this was,

0:07:04.000,0:07:05.976
you were not supposed to talk

0:07:06.000,0:07:08.976
about final causes, for instance.

0:07:09.000,0:07:10.976
And God was out of the picture.

0:07:11.000,0:07:14.000
The actual nature of reality[br]was not at issue.

0:07:15.000,0:07:18.143
You're not supposed to talk[br]about the absolute nature of anything.

0:07:18.167,0:07:20.263
You were not supposed[br]to talk about anything

0:07:20.287,0:07:21.976
that you couldn't demonstrate.

0:07:22.000,0:07:25.477
So if somebody could see it, you could[br]say, here's how the machine works,

0:07:25.501,0:07:28.501
here's what we do, and then[br]here's what happens.

0:07:29.000,0:07:30.976
And seeing what happens, it was OK

0:07:31.000,0:07:32.976
to generalize,

0:07:33.000,0:07:35.976
and say, I'm sure that this[br]will happen anytime

0:07:36.000,0:07:37.976
we make one of these things.

0:07:38.000,0:07:40.000
And so you can start making up some rules.

0:07:40.024,0:07:42.976
You say, anytime you have a vacuum state,

0:07:43.000,0:07:45.976
you will discover that one wheel[br]will not turn another one,

0:07:46.000,0:07:47.976
if the only connection between them

0:07:48.000,0:07:50.976
is whatever was there before the vacuum.[br]That kind of thing.

0:07:51.000,0:07:52.976
Candles can't burn in a vacuum,

0:07:53.000,0:07:55.976
therefore, probably[br]sparklers wouldn't either.

0:07:56.000,0:07:57.976
It's not clear; actually sparklers will,

0:07:58.000,0:07:59.976
but they didn't know that.

0:08:00.000,0:08:01.976
They didn't have sparklers. But, they --

0:08:02.000,0:08:06.976
(Laughter)

0:08:07.000,0:08:09.334
-- you can make up rules,[br]but they have to relate

0:08:10.000,0:08:11.976
only to the things[br]that you've been able to demonstrate.

0:08:12.000,0:08:14.976
And most the demonstrations[br]had to do with visuals.

0:08:15.000,0:08:16.976
Like if you do an experiment on stage,

0:08:17.000,0:08:19.976
and nobody can see it, they can just hear it,[br]they would probably think you were freaky.

0:08:20.000,0:08:22.976
I mean, reality is what you can see.

0:08:23.000,0:08:26.976
That wasn't an explicit[br]rule in the meeting,

0:08:27.000,0:08:28.976
but I'm sure that was part of it,[br]you know. If people hear voices,

0:08:29.000,0:08:31.976
and they can't see and associate[br]it with somebody,

0:08:32.000,0:08:33.976
that person's probably not there.

0:08:34.000,0:08:36.048
But the general idea[br]that you could only --

0:08:38.000,0:08:40.524
you could only really talk[br]about things in that place

0:08:40.548,0:08:42.976
that had some kind of experimental basis.

0:08:43.000,0:08:44.976
It didn't matter what Thomas Hobbes,

0:08:45.000,0:08:46.976
who was a local philosopher,

0:08:47.000,0:08:48.976
said about it, you know,

0:08:49.000,0:08:51.524
because you weren't going[br]to be talking final causes.

0:08:51.548,0:08:52.976
What's happening here,

0:08:53.000,0:08:54.976
in the middle of the 17th century,

0:08:55.000,0:08:56.976
was that what became my field --

0:08:57.000,0:08:58.976
science, experimental science --

0:08:59.000,0:09:00.976
was pulling itself away,

0:09:01.000,0:09:03.976
and it was in a physical way, because we're[br]going to do it in this room over here,

0:09:04.000,0:09:05.976
but it was also what -- it[br]was an amazing thing that happened.

0:09:06.000,0:09:07.976
Science had been all interlocked

0:09:08.000,0:09:09.976
with theology, and philosophy,

0:09:10.000,0:09:12.976
and -- and -- and mathematics,

0:09:13.000,0:09:15.000
which is really not science.

0:09:16.000,0:09:19.048
But experimental science had[br]been tied up with all those things.

0:09:19.072,0:09:21.976
And the mathematics part

0:09:22.000,0:09:23.976
and the experimental science part

0:09:24.000,0:09:25.976
was pulling away from philosophy.

0:09:26.000,0:09:27.976
And -- things --

0:09:28.000,0:09:29.976
we never looked back.

0:09:30.000,0:09:32.000
It's been so cool since then.

0:09:33.000,0:09:37.976
I mean, it just -- it just -- untangled[br]a thing that was really impeding

0:09:38.000,0:09:39.976
technology from being developed.

0:09:40.000,0:09:41.976
And, I mean, everybody in this room --

0:09:42.000,0:09:43.976
now, this is 350 short years ago.

0:09:44.000,0:09:45.976
Remember, that's a short time.

0:09:46.000,0:09:48.000
It was 300,000, probably, years ago

0:09:49.000,0:09:51.976
that most of us, the ancestors[br]of most of us in this room

0:09:52.000,0:09:54.143
came up out of Africa[br]and turned to the left.

0:09:55.000,0:09:56.976
You know, the ones that turned[br]to the right, there are some of those

0:09:57.000,0:09:58.976
in the Japanese translation.

0:09:59.000,0:10:01.976
But that happened very -- a long time ago

0:10:02.000,0:10:03.976
compared to

0:10:04.000,0:10:05.976
350 short years ago.

0:10:06.000,0:10:07.976
But in that 350 years,

0:10:08.000,0:10:10.976
the place has just undergone[br]a lot of changes.

0:10:11.000,0:10:12.976
In fact, everybody in this room probably,

0:10:13.000,0:10:15.976
especially if you picked up your bag --

0:10:16.000,0:10:17.976
some of you, I know, didn't[br]pick up your bags --

0:10:18.000,0:10:19.976
but if you picked up your bag,[br]everybody in this room

0:10:20.000,0:10:22.239
has got in their pocket,[br]or back in their room,

0:10:22.263,0:10:23.976
something

0:10:24.000,0:10:25.976
that 350 years ago,

0:10:26.000,0:10:28.000
kings would have gone to war to have.

0:10:29.000,0:10:30.976
I mean, if you can think how important --

0:10:31.000,0:10:32.976
If you have a GPS system[br]and there are no satellites,

0:10:33.000,0:10:35.048
it's not going to be much use.[br]But, like --

0:10:35.072,0:10:37.120
but, you know, if somebody[br]had a GPS system

0:10:37.144,0:10:39.976
in the 17th century

0:10:40.000,0:10:41.976
some king would have[br]gotten together an army

0:10:42.000,0:10:43.976
and gone to get it, you know.[br]If that person --

0:10:44.000,0:10:46.143
Audience: For the teddy bear?[br]The teddy bear?

0:10:46.167,0:10:49.120
Kary Mullis: They might have done[br]it for the teddy bear, yeah.

0:10:49.144,0:10:50.976
But -- all of us own stuff.

0:10:51.000,0:10:52.976
I mean, individuals own things

0:10:53.000,0:10:55.477
that kings would have[br]definitely gone to war to get.

0:10:55.501,0:10:56.976
And this is just 350 years.

0:10:57.000,0:10:59.048
Not a whole lot of people[br]doing this stuff.

0:10:59.072,0:11:00.976
You know, the important people --

0:11:01.000,0:11:02.976
you can almost read about their lives,

0:11:03.000,0:11:06.191
about all the really important[br]people that made advances, you know.

0:11:06.215,0:11:07.976
And, I mean --

0:11:08.000,0:11:10.976
this kind of stuff, you[br]know, all this stuff

0:11:11.000,0:11:12.976
came from that separation

0:11:13.000,0:11:15.976
of this little sort of thing that we do --

0:11:16.000,0:11:17.976
now I, when I was a boy

0:11:18.000,0:11:19.976
was born sort of with this idea

0:11:20.000,0:11:21.976
that if you want to know something --

0:11:22.000,0:11:23.976
you know, maybe it's because my old[br]man was gone a lot,

0:11:24.000,0:11:26.191
and my mother didn't[br]really know much science,

0:11:26.215,0:11:28.882
but I thought if you want[br]to know something about stuff,

0:11:29.000,0:11:31.191
you do it -- you make[br]an experiment, you know.

0:11:31.215,0:11:32.976
You get -- you get, like --

0:11:33.000,0:11:35.976
I just had a natural feeling for science

0:11:36.000,0:11:37.976
and setting up experiments. I thought[br]that was the way everybody had always thought.

0:11:38.000,0:11:40.976
I thought that anybody[br]with any brains will do it that way.

0:11:41.000,0:11:43.976
It isn't true. I mean,[br]there's a lot of people --

0:11:44.000,0:11:46.976
You know, I was one of those[br]scientists that was --

0:11:47.000,0:11:49.000
got into trouble the other night at dinner

0:11:49.024,0:11:50.976
because of the post-modernism thing.

0:11:51.000,0:11:52.976
And I didn't mean, you know[br]-- where is that lady?

0:11:53.000,0:11:53.976
Audience: Here.

0:11:54.000,0:11:54.976
(Laughter)

0:11:55.000,0:11:57.667
KM: I mean, I didn't really[br]think of that as an argument

0:11:57.691,0:11:59.976
so much as just a lively discussion.

0:12:00.000,0:12:02.000
I didn't take it personally, but --

0:12:03.000,0:12:05.976
I just -- I had -- I naively had thought,

0:12:06.000,0:12:09.000
until this surfing experience[br]started me into the 17th century,

0:12:09.024,0:12:11.263
I'd thought that's just[br]the way people thought,

0:12:11.287,0:12:13.976
and everybody did,[br]and they recognized reality

0:12:14.000,0:12:16.286
by what they could see[br]or touch or feel or hear.

0:12:17.000,0:12:20.000
At any rate, when I was a boy,

0:12:22.000,0:12:23.976
I, like, for instance, I had this --

0:12:24.000,0:12:25.976
I got this little book[br]from Fort Sill, Oklahoma --

0:12:26.000,0:12:28.191
This is about the time[br]that George Dyson's dad

0:12:28.215,0:12:29.976
was starting to blow nuclear --

0:12:30.000,0:12:32.976
thinking about blowing[br]up nuclear rockets and stuff.

0:12:33.000,0:12:35.976
I was thinking about making[br]my own little rockets.

0:12:36.000,0:12:38.976
And I knew that frogs -- little frogs --

0:12:39.000,0:12:40.976
had aspirations of space travel,

0:12:41.000,0:12:42.976
just like people. And I --

0:12:43.000,0:12:45.976
(Laughter)

0:12:46.000,0:12:47.976
I was looking for a --

0:12:48.000,0:12:49.976
a propulsion system

0:12:50.000,0:12:51.976
that would like, make a rocket, like,

0:12:52.000,0:12:54.429
maybe about four feet high[br]go up a couple of miles.

0:12:54.453,0:12:56.976
And, I mean, that was my sort of goal.

0:12:57.000,0:13:00.334
I wanted it to go out of sight and then[br]I wanted this little parachute

0:13:00.358,0:13:02.976
to come back with the frog in it.

0:13:03.000,0:13:04.976
And -- I -- I --

0:13:05.000,0:13:06.976
I got this book from Fort Sill, Oklahoma,

0:13:07.000,0:13:08.976
where there's a missile base.

0:13:09.000,0:13:11.000
They send it out for amateur rocketeers,

0:13:12.000,0:13:13.976
and

0:13:14.000,0:13:15.976
it said in there

0:13:16.000,0:13:18.976
do not ever heat a mixture[br]of potassium perchlorate and sugar.

0:13:19.000,0:13:21.976
(Laughter)

0:13:22.000,0:13:23.976
You know,

0:13:24.000,0:13:25.976
that's what you call a lead.

0:13:26.000,0:13:27.976
(Laughter)

0:13:28.000,0:13:29.976
You sort of -- now you say,[br]well, let's see if I can

0:13:30.000,0:13:32.976
get hold of some potassium chlorate[br]and sugar, perchlorate and sugar,

0:13:33.000,0:13:35.976
and heat it; it would be interesting to see[br]what it is they don't want me to do,

0:13:36.000,0:13:38.572
and what it is going to --[br]and how is it going to work.

0:13:38.596,0:13:39.976
And we didn't have --

0:13:40.000,0:13:41.976
like, my mother

0:13:42.000,0:13:44.976
presided over the back yard

0:13:45.000,0:13:46.976
from an upstairs window,

0:13:47.000,0:13:48.976
where she would be ironing[br]or something like that.

0:13:49.000,0:13:50.976
And she was usually just[br]sort of keeping an eye on,

0:13:51.000,0:13:53.191
and if there was any puffs[br]of smoke out there,

0:13:53.215,0:13:54.976
she'd lean out and admonish us all

0:13:55.000,0:13:57.000
not to blow our eyes out. That was her --

0:14:00.000,0:14:01.976
You know, that was kind of the worst[br]thing that could happen to us.

0:14:02.000,0:14:03.000
That's why I thought, as long[br]as I don't blow my eyes out...

0:14:04.000,0:14:06.976
I may not care about the fact

0:14:07.000,0:14:08.976
that it's prohibited[br]from heating this solution.

0:14:09.000,0:14:11.143
I'm going to do it[br]carefully, but I'll do it.

0:14:11.167,0:14:13.167
It's like anything else that's prohibited:

0:14:13.191,0:14:14.976
you do it behind the garage.

0:14:15.000,0:14:16.976
(Laughter)

0:14:17.000,0:14:18.976
So, I went to the drug store

0:14:19.000,0:14:21.976
and I tried to buy[br]some potassium perchlorate

0:14:22.000,0:14:23.976
and it wasn't unreasonable then for a kid

0:14:24.000,0:14:26.976
to walk into a drug store[br]and buy chemicals.

0:14:27.000,0:14:28.976
Nowadays, it's no ma'am,

0:14:29.000,0:14:30.976
check your shoes. And like --

0:14:31.000,0:14:32.976
(Laughter)

0:14:33.000,0:14:34.976
But then it wasn't -- they didn't[br]have any, but the guy had --

0:14:35.000,0:14:37.976
I said, what kind of salts[br]of potassium do you have? You know.

0:14:38.000,0:14:39.976
And he had potassium nitrate.

0:14:40.000,0:14:42.976
And I said, that might do[br]the same thing, whatever it is.

0:14:43.000,0:14:45.976
I'm sure it's got to do with rockets[br]or it wouldn't be in that manual.

0:14:46.000,0:14:47.976
And so I -- I did some experiments.

0:14:48.000,0:14:50.286
You know, I started[br]off with little tiny amounts

0:14:50.310,0:14:51.976
of potassium nitrate and sugar,

0:14:52.000,0:14:53.976
which was readily available,

0:14:54.000,0:14:55.976
and I mixed it in different proportions,

0:14:56.000,0:14:58.000
and I tried to light it on fire.

0:14:59.000,0:15:01.667
Just to see what would happen,[br]if you mixed it together.

0:15:01.691,0:15:02.976
And it -- they burned.

0:15:03.000,0:15:04.976
It burned kind of slow,[br]but it made a nice smell,

0:15:05.000,0:15:07.048
compared to other rocket[br]fuels I had tried,

0:15:07.072,0:15:08.976
that all had sulfur in them.

0:15:09.000,0:15:11.000
And, it smelt like burnt candy.

0:15:12.000,0:15:14.976
And then I tried the melting[br]business, and I melted it.

0:15:15.000,0:15:18.976
And then it melted into a little sort[br]of syrupy liquid, brown.

0:15:19.000,0:15:21.976
And then it cooled[br]down to a brick-hard substance,

0:15:22.000,0:15:23.976
that when you lit that,

0:15:24.000,0:15:25.976
it went off like a bat.

0:15:26.000,0:15:27.976
I mean, the little bowl of that stuff[br]that had cooled down --

0:15:28.000,0:15:29.976
you'd light it, and it would just[br]start dancing around the yard.

0:15:30.000,0:15:31.976
And I said, there

0:15:32.000,0:15:34.976
is a way to get a frog[br]up to where he wants to go.

0:15:35.000,0:15:35.976
(Laughter)

0:15:36.000,0:15:38.976
So I started developing --

0:15:39.000,0:15:41.000
you know, George's dad had a lot of help.[br]I just had my brother.

0:15:42.000,0:15:44.976
But I -- it took me[br]about -- it took me about,

0:15:45.000,0:15:46.976
I'd say, six months

0:15:47.000,0:15:49.048
to finally figure[br]out all the little things.

0:15:49.072,0:15:50.976
There's a lot of little things involved

0:15:51.000,0:15:53.191
in making a rocket that it[br]will actually work,

0:15:53.215,0:15:54.976
even after you have the fuel.

0:15:55.000,0:15:56.976
But you do it, by -- what I just--

0:15:57.000,0:15:58.976
you know, you do experiments,

0:15:59.000,0:15:59.976
and you write down things sometimes,

0:16:00.000,0:16:01.976
you make observations, you know.

0:16:02.000,0:16:03.976
And then you slowly build up a theory

0:16:04.000,0:16:05.976
of how this stuff works.

0:16:06.000,0:16:08.096
And it was --[br]I was following all the rules.

0:16:08.120,0:16:09.976
I didn't know what the rules were,

0:16:10.000,0:16:11.976
I'm a natural born scientist, I guess,

0:16:12.000,0:16:14.976
or some kind of a throwback[br]to the 17th century, whatever.

0:16:15.000,0:16:18.976
But at any rate, we finally did

0:16:19.000,0:16:20.976
have a device that would reproduceably

0:16:21.000,0:16:22.976
put a frog out of sight

0:16:23.000,0:16:24.976
and get him back alive.

0:16:25.000,0:16:26.976
And we had not --

0:16:27.000,0:16:29.976
I mean, we weren't frightened by it.

0:16:30.000,0:16:32.429
We should have been,[br]because it made a lot of smoke

0:16:32.453,0:16:33.976
and it made a lot of noise,

0:16:34.000,0:16:35.976
and it was powerful, you know.

0:16:36.000,0:16:37.976
And once in a while, they would blow up.

0:16:38.000,0:16:39.976
But I wasn't worried, by the way,

0:16:40.000,0:16:41.976
about, you know,

0:16:42.000,0:16:43.976
the explosion causing[br]the destruction of the planet.

0:16:44.000,0:16:45.976
I hadn't heard about the 10 ways

0:16:46.000,0:16:47.976
that we should be afraid of the --

0:16:48.000,0:16:49.976
By the way,

0:16:50.000,0:16:51.976
I could have thought,

0:16:52.000,0:16:53.976
I'd better not do this because

0:16:54.000,0:16:55.976
they say not to, you know.

0:16:56.000,0:16:57.976
And I'd better get permission[br]from the government.

0:16:58.000,0:16:59.976
If I'd have waited around for that,

0:17:00.000,0:17:03.000
I would have never -- the frog[br]would have died, you know.

0:17:04.000,0:17:06.976
At any rate, I bring it[br]up because it's a good story,

0:17:07.000,0:17:08.976
and he said, tell personal things,[br]you know, and that's a personal --

0:17:09.000,0:17:11.000
I was going to tell you about the first[br]night that I met my wife,

0:17:12.000,0:17:14.096
but that would be too[br]personal, wouldn't it.

0:17:15.000,0:17:17.429
So, so I've got something[br]else that's not personal.

0:17:17.453,0:17:19.976
But that... process[br]is what I think of as science,

0:17:20.000,0:17:22.976
see, where you start with some idea,

0:17:23.000,0:17:25.000
and then instead of, like, looking up,

0:17:26.000,0:17:27.976
every authority that you've ever heard of

0:17:28.000,0:17:29.976
I -- sometimes you do that,

0:17:30.000,0:17:31.976
if you're going to write a paper later,

0:17:32.000,0:17:33.976
you want to figure[br]out who else has worked on it.

0:17:34.000,0:17:36.143
But in the actual process,[br]you get an idea --

0:17:36.167,0:17:37.976
like, when I got the idea one night

0:17:38.000,0:17:40.976
that I could amplify DNA[br]with two oligonucleotides,

0:17:41.000,0:17:43.858
and I could make lots of copies[br]of some little piece of DNA,

0:17:44.000,0:17:45.976
you know, the thinking for that

0:17:46.000,0:17:49.000
was about 20 minutes[br]while I was driving my car,

0:17:50.000,0:17:53.572
and then instead of going -- I went[br]back and I did talk to people about it,

0:17:53.596,0:17:57.787
but if I'd listened to what I heard[br]from all my friends who were molecular biologists --

0:17:58.000,0:17:59.976
I would have abandoned it.

0:18:00.000,0:18:01.976
You know, if I had gone back[br]looking for an authority figure

0:18:02.000,0:18:04.000
who could tell me if it would work or not,

0:18:04.024,0:18:06.024
he would have said, no, it probably won't.

0:18:06.048,0:18:09.024
Because the results of it[br]were so spectacular

0:18:10.000,0:18:12.976
that if it worked it was going to change[br]everybody's goddamn way of doing molecular biology.

0:18:13.000,0:18:14.976
Nobody wants a chemist to come in

0:18:15.000,0:18:17.976
and poke around in their stuff[br]like that and change things.

0:18:18.000,0:18:19.976
But if you go to authority,[br]and you always don't --

0:18:20.000,0:18:22.048
you don't always get[br]the right answer, see.

0:18:22.072,0:18:23.976
But I knew, you'd go into the lab

0:18:24.000,0:18:25.976
and you'd try to make it work yourself.[br]And then you're the authority,

0:18:26.000,0:18:27.976
and you can say, I know it works,

0:18:28.000,0:18:29.976
because right there in that tube

0:18:30.000,0:18:31.976
is where it happened,

0:18:32.000,0:18:33.976
and here, on this gel,[br]there's a little band there

0:18:34.000,0:18:37.000
that I know that's DNA,[br]and that's the DNA I wanted to amplify,

0:18:37.024,0:18:38.976
so there! So it does work.

0:18:39.000,0:18:40.976
You know, that's how you do science.

0:18:41.000,0:18:42.976
And then you say, well,[br]what can make it work better?

0:18:43.000,0:18:44.976
And then you figure out better[br]and better ways to do it.

0:18:45.000,0:18:47.000
But you always work from, from like, facts

0:18:47.024,0:18:49.976
that you have made available to you

0:18:50.000,0:18:51.976
by doing experiments: things[br]that you could do on a stage.

0:18:52.000,0:18:54.976
And no tricky shit behind the thing.[br]I mean, it's all --

0:18:55.000,0:18:56.976
you've got to be very honest

0:18:57.000,0:18:58.976
with what you're doing if it[br]really is going to work.

0:18:59.000,0:19:00.976
I mean, you can't make up results,

0:19:01.000,0:19:03.334
and then do another experiment[br]based on that one.

0:19:03.358,0:19:04.976
So you have to be honest.

0:19:05.000,0:19:06.976
And I'm basically honest.

0:19:07.000,0:19:09.976
I have a fairly bad memory, and dishonesty[br]would always get me in trouble,

0:19:10.000,0:19:12.667
if I, like -- so I've just[br]sort of been naturally honest

0:19:12.691,0:19:14.691
and naturally inquisitive,

0:19:15.000,0:19:17.239
and that sort of leads[br]to that kind of science.

0:19:17.263,0:19:18.976
Now, let's see...

0:19:19.000,0:19:21.976
I've got another five minutes, right?

0:19:22.000,0:19:25.000
OK. All scientists aren't like that.

0:19:26.000,0:19:27.976
You know -- and there is a lot --

0:19:28.000,0:19:29.976
(Laughter)

0:19:30.000,0:19:32.239
There is a lot -- a lot[br]has been going on since

0:19:32.263,0:19:34.976
Isaac Newton and all that stuff happened.

0:19:35.000,0:19:36.976
One of the things that happened[br]right around World War II

0:19:37.000,0:19:38.976
in that same time period before,

0:19:39.000,0:19:40.976
and as sure as hell afterwards,

0:19:41.000,0:19:44.000
government got -- realized[br]that scientists aren't strange dudes

0:19:44.024,0:19:46.976
that, you know, hide in ivory towers

0:19:47.000,0:19:49.976
and do ridiculous things with test tube.

0:19:50.000,0:19:51.976
Scientists, you know, made World War II

0:19:52.000,0:19:53.976
as we know it quite possible.

0:19:54.000,0:19:56.000
They made faster things.

0:19:57.000,0:19:59.976
They made bigger guns[br]to shoot them down with.

0:20:00.000,0:20:02.976
You know, they made drugs[br]to give the pilots

0:20:03.000,0:20:05.976
if they were broken up in the process.

0:20:06.000,0:20:08.976
They made all kinds of --[br]and then finally one giant bomb

0:20:09.000,0:20:10.976
to end the whole thing, right?

0:20:11.000,0:20:12.976
And everybody stepped back[br]a little and said, you know,

0:20:13.000,0:20:14.976
we ought to invest in this shit,

0:20:15.000,0:20:17.976
because whoever has got[br]the most of these people

0:20:18.000,0:20:20.976
working in the places is going[br]to have a dominant position,

0:20:21.000,0:20:23.976
at least in the military, and probably[br]in all kind of economic ways.

0:20:24.000,0:20:25.976
And they got involved[br]in it, and the scientific

0:20:26.000,0:20:27.976
and industrial establishment was born,

0:20:28.000,0:20:29.976
and out of that came a lot of scientists

0:20:30.000,0:20:32.976
who were in there for the money, you know,

0:20:33.000,0:20:34.976
because it was suddenly available.

0:20:35.000,0:20:36.976
And they weren't the curious little boys

0:20:37.000,0:20:38.976
that liked to put frogs up in the air.

0:20:39.000,0:20:41.976
They were the same people that later[br]went in to medical school, you know,

0:20:42.000,0:20:44.976
because there was money in it, you know. I mean,[br]later, then they all got into business --

0:20:45.000,0:20:47.976
I mean, there are waves of --[br]going into your high school,

0:20:48.000,0:20:50.976
person saying, you want to be rich, you know,[br]be a scientist. You know, not anymore.

0:20:51.000,0:20:53.000
You want to be rich, you be a businessman.

0:20:53.024,0:20:56.501
But a lot of people got in it for the money[br]and the power and the travel.

0:20:56.525,0:20:59.501
That's back when travel was easy.

0:21:00.000,0:21:01.976
And those people don't think --

0:21:02.000,0:21:03.976
they don't --

0:21:04.000,0:21:05.976
they don't always tell[br]you the truth, you know.

0:21:06.000,0:21:08.096
There is nothing[br]in their contract, in fact,

0:21:08.120,0:21:10.096
that makes it to their advantage always,

0:21:10.120,0:21:11.976
to tell you the truth.

0:21:12.000,0:21:14.976
And the people I'm talking[br]about are people that like --

0:21:15.000,0:21:17.976
they say that they're[br]a member of the committee

0:21:18.000,0:21:21.976
called, say, the Inter-Governmental[br]Panel on Climate Change.

0:21:22.000,0:21:25.477
And they -- and they have these big[br]meetings where they try to figure out

0:21:26.000,0:21:28.762
how we're going to -- how we're[br]going to continually prove

0:21:28.786,0:21:30.976
that the planet is getting warmer,

0:21:31.000,0:21:33.976
when that's actually contrary[br]to most people's sensations.

0:21:34.000,0:21:35.976
I mean, if you actually measure

0:21:36.000,0:21:37.976
the temperature over a period --

0:21:38.000,0:21:40.143
I mean, the temperature[br]has been measured now

0:21:40.167,0:21:42.976
pretty carefully for about 50, 60 years --

0:21:43.000,0:21:44.976
longer than that it's been measured,

0:21:45.000,0:21:46.976
but in really nice, precise ways,

0:21:47.000,0:21:49.976
and records have been kept[br]for 50 or 60 years,

0:21:50.000,0:21:51.976
and in fact, the temperature[br]hadn't really gone up.

0:21:52.000,0:21:53.976
It's like, the average temperature

0:21:54.000,0:21:55.976
has gone up a tiny little bit,

0:21:56.000,0:21:58.976
because the nighttime temperatures

0:21:59.000,0:22:00.976
at the weather stations have[br]come up just a little bit.

0:22:01.000,0:22:02.976
But there's a good explanation for that.

0:22:03.000,0:22:06.096
And it's that the weather stations[br]are all built outside of town,

0:22:06.120,0:22:07.976
where the airport was, and now

0:22:08.000,0:22:09.976
the town's moved out there,[br]there's concrete all around

0:22:10.000,0:22:11.976
and they call it the skyline effect.

0:22:12.000,0:22:13.976
And most responsible people

0:22:14.000,0:22:15.976
that measure temperatures realize

0:22:16.000,0:22:18.429
you have to shield[br]your measuring device from that.

0:22:18.453,0:22:20.976
And even then, you know,

0:22:21.000,0:22:21.976
because the buildings get[br]warm in the daytime,

0:22:22.000,0:22:24.000
and they keep it a little warmer at night.

0:22:24.024,0:22:26.000
So the temperature has[br]been, sort of, inching up.

0:22:26.024,0:22:28.976
It should have been. But not a lot.[br]Not like, you know --

0:22:29.000,0:22:30.976
the first guy -- the first[br]guy that got the idea

0:22:31.000,0:22:32.976
that we're going to fry ourselves here,

0:22:33.000,0:22:34.976
actually, he didn't think of it that way.

0:22:35.000,0:22:37.976
His name was Sven Arrhenius.[br]He was Swedish, and he said,

0:22:38.000,0:22:40.976
if you double the CO2[br]level in the atmosphere,

0:22:41.000,0:22:43.096
which he thought might[br]-- this is in 1900 --

0:22:44.000,0:22:47.048
the temperature ought to go[br]up about 5.5 degrees, he calculated.

0:22:47.072,0:22:49.263
He was thinking of the earth[br]as, kind of like,

0:22:49.287,0:22:51.976
you know, like a completely[br]insulated thing

0:22:52.000,0:22:53.976
with no stuff in it, really,

0:22:54.000,0:22:55.976
just energy coming down, energy leaving.

0:22:56.000,0:22:57.976
And so he came up with this theory,

0:22:58.000,0:22:59.976
and he said, this will be cool,

0:23:00.000,0:23:02.976
because it'll be a longer[br]growing season in Sweden,

0:23:03.000,0:23:04.976
you know, and the surfers liked it,

0:23:05.000,0:23:06.976
the surfers thought, that's a cool idea,

0:23:07.000,0:23:09.976
because it's pretty cold[br]in the ocean sometimes, and --

0:23:10.000,0:23:11.976
but a lot of other people later on

0:23:12.000,0:23:14.048
started thinking it[br]would be bad, you know.

0:23:15.000,0:23:17.048
But nobody actually[br]demonstrated it, right?

0:23:17.072,0:23:18.976
I mean, the temperature as measured --

0:23:19.000,0:23:21.286
and you can find this[br]on our wonderful Internet,

0:23:21.310,0:23:23.976
you just go and look[br]for all NASAs records,

0:23:24.000,0:23:25.976
and all the Weather Bureau's records,

0:23:26.000,0:23:28.976
and you'll look at it yourself,[br]and you'll see, the temperature has just --

0:23:29.000,0:23:32.000
the nighttime temperature measured[br]on the surface of the planet

0:23:32.024,0:23:33.976
has gone up a tiny little bit.

0:23:34.000,0:23:35.976
So if you just average that and the daytime[br]temperature, it looks like it went up

0:23:36.000,0:23:38.976
about .7 degrees in this century.

0:23:39.000,0:23:40.976
But in fact, it was just coming up --

0:23:41.000,0:23:43.858
it was the nighttime; the daytime[br]temperatures didn't go up.

0:23:43.882,0:23:45.976
So -- and Arrhenius' theory --

0:23:46.000,0:23:47.976
and all the global warmers think --

0:23:48.000,0:23:49.976
they would say, yeah, it should[br]go up in the daytime, too,

0:23:50.000,0:23:51.976
if it's the greenhouse effect.

0:23:52.000,0:23:54.976
Now, people like things[br]that have, like, names like that,

0:23:55.000,0:23:57.976
that they can envision it, right?[br]I mean --

0:23:58.000,0:24:00.905
but people don't like things[br]like this, so -- most -- I mean,

0:24:00.929,0:24:02.929
you don't get all excited about things

0:24:03.000,0:24:04.976
like the actual evidence, you know,

0:24:05.000,0:24:06.976
which would be evidence for strengthening

0:24:07.000,0:24:09.976
of the tropical circulation in the 1990s.

0:24:10.000,0:24:11.976
It's a paper that came out in February,

0:24:12.000,0:24:14.976
and most of you probably[br]hadn't heard about it.

0:24:15.000,0:24:16.976
"Evidence for Large Decadal Variability

0:24:17.000,0:24:20.000
in the Tropical Mean[br]Radiative Energy Budget."

0:24:21.000,0:24:23.976
Excuse me. Those papers[br]were published by NASA,

0:24:24.000,0:24:26.048
and some scientists[br]at Columbia, and Viliki

0:24:26.072,0:24:28.976
and a whole bunch of people, Princeton.

0:24:29.000,0:24:31.976
And those two papers came[br]out in Science Magazine,

0:24:32.000,0:24:33.976
February the first,

0:24:34.000,0:24:36.976
and these -- the conclusion[br]in both of these papers,

0:24:37.000,0:24:39.976
and in also the Science editor's, like,

0:24:40.000,0:24:42.096
descriptions of these[br]papers, for, you know,

0:24:42.120,0:24:43.976
for the quickie,

0:24:44.000,0:24:45.976
is that our theories about global warming

0:24:46.000,0:24:47.976
are completely wrong. I mean,

0:24:48.000,0:24:49.976
what these guys were doing,

0:24:50.000,0:24:52.976
and this is what -- the NASA people[br]have been saying this for a long time.

0:24:53.000,0:24:55.976
They say, if you measure the temperature[br]of the atmosphere, it isn't going up --

0:24:56.000,0:24:59.477
it's not going up at all. We've doing[br]it very carefully now for 20 years,

0:24:59.501,0:25:01.976
from satellites, and it isn't going up.

0:25:02.000,0:25:04.976
And in this paper, they show[br]something much more striking,

0:25:05.000,0:25:07.976
and that was that they did[br]what they call a radiation --

0:25:08.000,0:25:10.976
and I'm not going to go into the details[br]of it, actually it's quite complicated,

0:25:11.000,0:25:13.976
but it isn't as complicated[br]as they might make you think it is

0:25:14.000,0:25:16.976
by the words they use in those papers.[br]If you really get down to it, they say,

0:25:17.000,0:25:19.191
the sun puts out a certain[br]amount of energy --

0:25:19.215,0:25:20.976
we know how much that is --

0:25:21.000,0:25:23.905
it falls on the earth, the earth[br]gives back a certain amount.

0:25:23.929,0:25:25.976
When it gets warm it generates --

0:25:26.000,0:25:28.976
it makes redder energy --[br]I mean, like infra-red,

0:25:29.000,0:25:31.976
like something that's warm[br]gives off infra-red.

0:25:32.000,0:25:34.048
The whole business[br]of the global warming --

0:25:34.072,0:25:35.976
trash, really,

0:25:36.000,0:25:39.000
is that -- if the -- if there's too[br]much CO2 in the atmosphere,

0:25:39.024,0:25:40.976
the heat that's trying to escape

0:25:41.000,0:25:43.976
won't be able to get out. But[br]the heat coming from the sun,

0:25:44.000,0:25:46.976
which is mostly down in the --[br]it's like 350 nanometers,

0:25:47.000,0:25:49.976
which is where it's centered --[br]that goes right through CO2.

0:25:50.000,0:25:51.976
So you still get heated,[br]but you don't dissipate any.

0:25:52.000,0:25:53.976
Well, these guys measured[br]all of those things.

0:25:54.000,0:25:55.976
I mean, you can talk about that stuff,

0:25:56.000,0:25:59.858
and you can write these large reports,[br]and you can get government money to do it,

0:25:59.882,0:26:01.976
but these -- they actually measured it,

0:26:02.000,0:26:04.143
and it turns[br]out that in the last 10 years --

0:26:04.167,0:26:06.143
that's why they say "decadal" there --

0:26:06.167,0:26:08.976
that the energy -- that the level

0:26:09.000,0:26:10.976
of what they call "imbalance"

0:26:11.000,0:26:13.976
has been way the hell[br]over what was expected.

0:26:14.000,0:26:16.976
Like, the amount of imbalance --

0:26:17.000,0:26:19.976
meaning, heat's coming[br]in and it's not going out

0:26:20.000,0:26:22.191
that you would get[br]from having double the CO2,

0:26:22.215,0:26:24.976
which we're not anywhere[br]near that, by the way.

0:26:25.000,0:26:26.976
But if we did, in 2025 or something,

0:26:27.000,0:26:29.976
have double the CO2 as we had in 1900,

0:26:30.000,0:26:32.239
they say it would be[br]increase the energy budget

0:26:32.263,0:26:34.976
by about -- in other words,

0:26:35.000,0:26:36.976
one watt per square centimeter more

0:26:37.000,0:26:38.976
would be coming in than going out.

0:26:39.000,0:26:41.976
So the planet should get warmer.

0:26:42.000,0:26:44.620
Well, they found out in this[br]study -- these two studies

0:26:44.644,0:26:45.976
by two different teams --

0:26:46.000,0:26:47.976
that five and a half watts

0:26:48.000,0:26:49.976
per square meter

0:26:50.000,0:26:52.976
had been coming in from 1998, 1999,

0:26:53.000,0:26:54.976
and the place didn't get warmer.

0:26:55.000,0:26:56.976
So the theory's kaput -- it's nothing.

0:26:57.000,0:26:58.976
These papers should have been called,

0:26:59.000,0:27:01.976
"The End to the Global[br]Warming Fiasco," you know.

0:27:02.000,0:27:03.976
They're concerned,

0:27:04.000,0:27:06.976
and you can tell they have very[br]guarded conclusions in these papers,

0:27:07.000,0:27:09.191
because they're talking[br]about big laboratories

0:27:09.215,0:27:10.976
that are funded by lots of money

0:27:11.000,0:27:12.976
and by scared people.

0:27:13.000,0:27:14.976
You know, if they said, you know what?

0:27:15.000,0:27:16.976
There isn't a problem[br]with global warming any longer,

0:27:17.000,0:27:18.976
so we can -- you know, they're funding.

0:27:19.000,0:27:21.762
And if you start a grant request[br]with something like that,

0:27:22.000,0:27:24.429
and say, global warming[br]obviously hadn't happened...

0:27:24.453,0:27:26.429
if they -- if they -- if they actually[br]-- if they actually said that,

0:27:26.453,0:27:27.976
I'm getting out.

0:27:28.000,0:27:30.976
(Laughter)

0:27:31.000,0:27:32.976
I'll stand up too, and --

0:27:33.000,0:27:34.976
(Laughter)

0:27:35.000,0:27:37.976
(Applause)

0:27:38.000,0:27:39.976
They have to say that.

0:27:40.000,0:27:41.976
They had to be very cautious.

0:27:42.000,0:27:44.143
But what I'm saying is,[br]you can be delighted,

0:27:44.167,0:27:46.976
because the editor[br]of Science, who is no dummy,

0:27:47.000,0:27:49.976
and both of these fairly professional --

0:27:50.000,0:27:52.976
really professional teams, have[br]really come to the same conclusion

0:27:53.000,0:27:54.976
and in the bottom lines in their papers

0:27:55.000,0:27:57.000
they have to say, what this means[br]is, that what we've been thinking,

0:27:58.000,0:28:00.239
was the global circulation[br]model that we predict

0:28:00.263,0:28:02.239
that the earth is going to get overheated

0:28:02.263,0:28:04.976
that it's all wrong.[br]It's wrong by a large factor.

0:28:05.000,0:28:07.976
It's not by a small one. They just --

0:28:08.000,0:28:10.976
they just misinterpreted[br]the fact that the earth --

0:28:11.000,0:28:13.000
there's obviously some mechanisms going on

0:28:13.024,0:28:14.976
that nobody knew about,

0:28:15.000,0:28:16.976
because the heat's coming[br]in and it isn't getting warmer.

0:28:17.000,0:28:19.976
So the planet is a pretty[br]amazing thing, you know,

0:28:20.000,0:28:21.976
it's big and horrible --[br]and big and wonderful,

0:28:22.000,0:28:24.976
and it does all kinds of things[br]we don't know anything about.

0:28:25.000,0:28:26.976
So I mean, the reason I put[br]those things all together,

0:28:27.000,0:28:28.976
OK, here's the way you're[br]supposed to do science --

0:28:29.000,0:28:31.976
some science is done for other[br]reasons, and just curiosity.

0:28:32.000,0:28:34.286
And there's a lot of things[br]like global warming,

0:28:34.310,0:28:35.976
and ozone hole and you know,

0:28:36.000,0:28:38.000
a whole bunch of scientific public issues,

0:28:38.024,0:28:39.976
that if you're interested in them,

0:28:40.000,0:28:43.096
then you have to get down the details,[br]and read the papers called,

0:28:43.120,0:28:44.976
"Large Decadal Variability in the..."

0:28:45.000,0:28:47.286
You have to figure[br]out what all those words mean.

0:28:47.310,0:28:48.976
And if you just listen to the guys

0:28:49.000,0:28:51.976
who are hyping those issues,[br]and making a lot of money out of it,

0:28:52.000,0:28:55.286
you'll be misinformed, and you'll be[br]worrying about the wrong things.

0:28:55.310,0:28:58.691
Remember the 10 things that are going[br]to get you. The -- one of them --

0:28:58.715,0:28:59.976
(Laughter)

0:29:00.000,0:29:02.976
And the asteroids is the one I really[br]agree with there.

0:29:03.000,0:29:06.810
I mean, you've got to watch out for asteroids.[br]OK, thank you for having me here.

0:29:06.834,0:29:09.834
(Applause)