WEBVTT 00:00:01.747 --> 00:00:03.785 My talk today is about something 00:00:03.785 --> 00:00:06.118 maybe a couple of you have already heard about. 00:00:06.118 --> 00:00:08.452 It's called the Arab Spring. 00:00:08.452 --> 00:00:10.350 Anyone heard of it? NOTE Paragraph 00:00:10.350 --> 00:00:13.475 (Applause) NOTE Paragraph 00:00:13.475 --> 00:00:18.220 So in 2011, power shifted, 00:00:18.220 --> 00:00:20.863 from the few to the many, 00:00:20.863 --> 00:00:24.618 from oval offices to central squares, 00:00:24.618 --> 00:00:27.611 from carefully guarded airwaves 00:00:27.611 --> 00:00:30.298 to open-source networks. 00:00:30.298 --> 00:00:35.082 But before Tahrir was a global symbol of liberation, 00:00:35.082 --> 00:00:37.066 there were representative surveys 00:00:37.066 --> 00:00:40.056 already giving people a voice 00:00:40.056 --> 00:00:43.549 in quieter but still powerful ways. NOTE Paragraph 00:00:43.549 --> 00:00:48.381 I study Muslim societies around the world at Gallup. 00:00:48.381 --> 00:00:50.865 Since 2001, 00:00:50.865 --> 00:00:54.246 we've interviewed hundreds of thousands of people -- 00:00:54.246 --> 00:00:56.021 young and old, men and women, 00:00:56.021 --> 00:00:58.161 educated and illiterate. 00:00:58.161 --> 00:01:01.664 My talk today draws on this research 00:01:01.664 --> 00:01:05.597 to reveal why Arabs rose up 00:01:05.597 --> 00:01:08.614 and what they want now. NOTE Paragraph 00:01:08.614 --> 00:01:11.796 Now this region's very diverse, 00:01:11.796 --> 00:01:13.781 and every country is unique. 00:01:13.781 --> 00:01:15.431 But those who revolted 00:01:15.431 --> 00:01:18.370 shared a common set of grievances 00:01:18.370 --> 00:01:21.547 and have similar demands today. 00:01:21.547 --> 00:01:24.398 I'm going to focus a lot of my talk on Egypt. 00:01:24.398 --> 00:01:27.764 It has nothing to do with the fact that I was born there, of course. 00:01:27.764 --> 00:01:31.348 But it's the largest Arab country 00:01:31.348 --> 00:01:34.763 and it's also one with a great deal of influence. 00:01:34.763 --> 00:01:38.747 But I'm going to end by widening the lens to the entire region 00:01:38.747 --> 00:01:41.564 to look at the mundane topics 00:01:41.564 --> 00:01:44.347 of Arab views of religion and politics 00:01:44.347 --> 00:01:47.532 and how this impacts women, 00:01:47.532 --> 00:01:51.304 revealing some surprises along the way. NOTE Paragraph 00:01:51.304 --> 00:01:55.433 So after analyzing mounds of data, 00:01:55.433 --> 00:01:57.901 what we discovered was this: 00:01:57.901 --> 00:02:01.140 Unemployment and poverty alone 00:02:01.140 --> 00:02:05.734 did not lead to the Arab revolts of 2011. 00:02:05.734 --> 00:02:08.817 If an act of desperation by a Tunisian fruit vendor 00:02:08.817 --> 00:02:10.535 sparked these revolutions, 00:02:10.535 --> 00:02:14.535 it was the difference between what Arabs experienced 00:02:14.535 --> 00:02:16.915 and what they expected 00:02:16.915 --> 00:02:18.748 that provided the fuel. NOTE Paragraph 00:02:18.748 --> 00:02:20.149 To tell you what I mean, 00:02:20.149 --> 00:02:22.331 consider this trend in Egypt. 00:02:22.331 --> 00:02:25.307 On paper the country was doing great. 00:02:25.307 --> 00:02:28.164 In fact, it attracted accolades 00:02:28.164 --> 00:02:30.616 from multinational organizations 00:02:30.616 --> 00:02:32.682 because of its economic growth. 00:02:32.682 --> 00:02:35.331 But under the surface was a very different reality. 00:02:35.331 --> 00:02:39.081 In 2010, right before the revolution, 00:02:39.081 --> 00:02:41.232 even though GDP per capita 00:02:41.232 --> 00:02:44.331 had been growing at five percent for several years, 00:02:44.331 --> 00:02:48.831 Egyptians had never felt worse about their lives. NOTE Paragraph 00:02:48.831 --> 00:02:51.099 Now this is very unusual, 00:02:51.099 --> 00:02:54.400 because globally we find that, not surprisingly, 00:02:54.400 --> 00:02:58.015 people feel better as their country gets richer. 00:02:58.015 --> 00:03:00.798 And that's because they have better job opportunities 00:03:00.798 --> 00:03:04.211 and their state offers better social services. 00:03:04.211 --> 00:03:06.599 But it was exactly the opposite in Egypt. 00:03:06.599 --> 00:03:09.331 As the country got more well-off, 00:03:09.331 --> 00:03:11.749 unemployment actually rose 00:03:11.749 --> 00:03:14.399 and people's satisfaction 00:03:14.399 --> 00:03:20.336 with things like housing and education plummeted. 00:03:20.336 --> 00:03:24.626 But it wasn't just anger at economic injustice. 00:03:24.626 --> 00:03:32.000 It was also people's deep longing for freedom. 00:03:32.000 --> 00:03:36.266 Contrary to the clash of civilizations theory, 00:03:36.266 --> 00:03:39.802 Arabs didn't despise Western liberty, 00:03:39.802 --> 00:03:41.754 they desired it. NOTE Paragraph 00:03:41.754 --> 00:03:44.503 As early as 2001, 00:03:44.503 --> 00:03:47.976 we asked Arabs, and Muslims in general around the world, 00:03:47.976 --> 00:03:50.905 what they admired most about the West. 00:03:50.905 --> 00:03:53.572 Among the most frequent responses 00:03:53.572 --> 00:03:55.924 was liberty and justice. 00:03:55.924 --> 00:03:59.090 In their own words to an open-ended question 00:03:59.090 --> 00:04:02.006 we heard, "Their political system is transparent 00:04:02.006 --> 00:04:05.207 and it's following democracy in its true sense." 00:04:05.207 --> 00:04:07.206 Another said it was "liberty and freedom 00:04:07.206 --> 00:04:09.938 and being open-minded with each other." 00:04:09.938 --> 00:04:14.573 Majorities as high as 90 percent and greater 00:04:14.573 --> 00:04:16.991 in Egypt, Indonesia and Iran 00:04:16.991 --> 00:04:19.674 told us in 2005 00:04:19.674 --> 00:04:23.873 that if they were to write a new constitution 00:04:23.873 --> 00:04:27.239 for a theoretical new country 00:04:27.239 --> 00:04:29.564 that they would guarantee freedom of speech 00:04:29.564 --> 00:04:31.974 as a fundamental right, 00:04:31.974 --> 00:04:34.058 especially in Egypt. 00:04:34.058 --> 00:04:38.040 Eighty-eight percent said moving toward greater democracy 00:04:38.040 --> 00:04:40.606 would help Muslims progress -- 00:04:40.606 --> 00:04:44.823 the highest percentage of any country we surveyed. NOTE Paragraph 00:04:44.823 --> 00:04:48.523 But pressed up against these democratic aspirations 00:04:48.523 --> 00:04:51.624 was a very different day-to-day experience, 00:04:51.624 --> 00:04:53.790 especially in Egypt. 00:04:53.790 --> 00:04:57.308 While aspiring to democracy the most, 00:04:57.308 --> 00:05:02.055 they were the least likely population in the world 00:05:02.055 --> 00:05:05.782 to say that they had actually voiced their opinion 00:05:05.782 --> 00:05:08.156 to a public official in the last month -- 00:05:08.156 --> 00:05:11.839 at only four percent. 00:05:11.839 --> 00:05:16.607 So while economic development made a few people rich, 00:05:16.607 --> 00:05:19.605 it left many more worse off. 00:05:19.605 --> 00:05:23.191 As people felt less and less free, 00:05:23.191 --> 00:05:26.940 they also felt less and less provided for. 00:05:26.940 --> 00:05:30.690 So rather than viewing their former regimes 00:05:30.690 --> 00:05:34.124 as generous if overprotective fathers, 00:05:34.124 --> 00:05:38.325 they viewed them as essentially prison wardens. NOTE Paragraph 00:05:38.325 --> 00:05:42.741 So now that Egyptians have ended Mubarak's 30-year rule, 00:05:42.741 --> 00:05:44.908 they potentially could be 00:05:44.908 --> 00:05:47.574 an example for the region. 00:05:47.574 --> 00:05:49.296 If Egypt is to succeed 00:05:49.296 --> 00:05:52.763 at building a society based on the rule of law, 00:05:52.763 --> 00:05:55.615 it could be a model. 00:05:55.615 --> 00:05:56.940 If, however, 00:05:56.940 --> 00:06:01.364 the core issues that propelled the revolution aren't addressed, 00:06:01.364 --> 00:06:05.074 the consequences could be catastrophic -- 00:06:05.074 --> 00:06:06.308 not just for Egypt, 00:06:06.308 --> 00:06:09.580 but for the entire region. NOTE Paragraph 00:06:09.580 --> 00:06:13.208 The signs don't look good, some have said. 00:06:13.208 --> 00:06:18.041 Islamists, not the young liberals that sparked the revolution, 00:06:18.041 --> 00:06:20.640 won the majority in Parliament. 00:06:20.640 --> 00:06:22.311 The military council 00:06:22.311 --> 00:06:26.626 has cracked down on civil society and protests 00:06:26.626 --> 00:06:29.994 and the country's economy continues to suffer. 00:06:29.994 --> 00:06:34.759 Evaluating Egypt on this basis alone, however, 00:06:34.759 --> 00:06:39.387 ignores the real revolution. 00:06:39.387 --> 00:06:41.566 Because Egyptians are more optimistic 00:06:41.566 --> 00:06:44.013 than they have been in years, 00:06:44.013 --> 00:06:47.785 far less divided on religious-secular lines 00:06:47.785 --> 00:06:49.101 than we would think 00:06:49.101 --> 00:06:53.016 and poised for the demands of democracy. NOTE Paragraph 00:06:53.016 --> 00:06:55.967 Whether they support Islamists or liberals, 00:06:55.967 --> 00:06:59.311 Egyptians' priorities for this government are identical, 00:06:59.311 --> 00:07:02.067 and they are jobs, stability and education, 00:07:02.067 --> 00:07:04.400 not moral policing. 00:07:04.400 --> 00:07:05.468 But most of all, 00:07:05.468 --> 00:07:06.899 for the first time in decades, 00:07:06.899 --> 00:07:10.649 they expect to be active participants, not spectators, 00:07:10.649 --> 00:07:12.950 in the affairs of their country. NOTE Paragraph 00:07:12.950 --> 00:07:16.966 I was meeting with a group of newly-elected parliamentarians 00:07:16.966 --> 00:07:18.501 from Egypt and Tunisia 00:07:18.501 --> 00:07:20.033 a couple of weeks ago. 00:07:20.033 --> 00:07:22.811 And what really struck me about them 00:07:22.811 --> 00:07:28.000 was that they weren't only optimistic, 00:07:28.000 --> 00:07:30.842 but they kind of struck me as nervous, 00:07:30.842 --> 00:07:32.193 for lack of a better word. 00:07:32.193 --> 00:07:33.482 One said to me, 00:07:33.482 --> 00:07:36.405 "Our people used to gather in cafes to watch football" -- 00:07:36.405 --> 00:07:39.422 or soccer, as we say in America -- 00:07:39.422 --> 00:07:43.805 "and now they gather to watch Parliament." 00:07:43.805 --> 00:07:47.159 (Laughter) 00:07:47.159 --> 00:07:49.381 "They're really watching us, 00:07:49.381 --> 00:07:53.368 and we can't help but worry 00:07:53.368 --> 00:07:55.888 that we're not going to live up to their expectations." 00:07:55.888 --> 00:07:57.396 And what really struck me 00:07:57.396 --> 00:07:59.588 is that less than 24 months ago, 00:07:59.588 --> 00:08:01.839 it was the people that were nervous 00:08:01.839 --> 00:08:04.921 about being watched by their government. NOTE Paragraph 00:08:04.921 --> 00:08:07.771 And the reason that they're expecting a lot 00:08:07.771 --> 00:08:11.375 is because they have a new-found hope for the future. 00:08:11.375 --> 00:08:13.161 So right before the revolution 00:08:13.161 --> 00:08:16.638 we said that Egyptians had never felt worse about their lives, 00:08:16.638 --> 00:08:20.938 but not only that, they thought their future would be no better. 00:08:20.938 --> 00:08:24.171 What really changed after the ouster of Mubarak 00:08:24.171 --> 00:08:26.005 wasn't that life got easier. 00:08:26.005 --> 00:08:28.112 It actually got harder. 00:08:28.112 --> 00:08:31.205 But people's expectations for their future 00:08:31.205 --> 00:08:33.005 went up significantly. 00:08:33.005 --> 00:08:35.402 And this hope, this optimism, 00:08:35.402 --> 00:08:39.748 endured a year of turbulent transition. NOTE Paragraph 00:08:39.748 --> 00:08:43.276 One reason that there's this optimism 00:08:43.276 --> 00:08:47.007 is because, contrary to what many people have said, 00:08:47.007 --> 00:08:51.189 most Egyptians think things really have changed in many ways. 00:08:51.189 --> 00:08:54.023 So while Egyptians were known 00:08:54.023 --> 00:08:57.490 for their single-digit turnout 00:08:57.490 --> 00:08:59.758 in elections before the revolution, 00:08:59.758 --> 00:09:03.590 the last election had around 70 percent voter turnout -- 00:09:03.590 --> 00:09:05.589 men and women. 00:09:05.589 --> 00:09:10.503 Where scarcely a quarter believed in the honesty of elections in 2010 -- 00:09:10.503 --> 00:09:12.184 I'm surprised it was a quarter -- 00:09:12.184 --> 00:09:16.296 90 percent thought that this last election was honest. 00:09:16.296 --> 00:09:17.874 Now why this matters 00:09:17.874 --> 00:09:21.040 is because we discovered a link 00:09:21.040 --> 00:09:25.274 between people's faith in their democratic process 00:09:25.274 --> 00:09:29.123 and their faith that oppressed people 00:09:29.123 --> 00:09:31.640 can change their situation 00:09:31.640 --> 00:09:36.360 through peaceful means alone. NOTE Paragraph 00:09:36.360 --> 00:09:45.731 (Applause) NOTE Paragraph 00:09:45.731 --> 00:09:48.152 Now I know what some of you are thinking. 00:09:48.152 --> 00:09:49.785 The Egyptian people, 00:09:49.785 --> 00:09:53.635 and many other Arabs who've revolted and are in transition, 00:09:53.635 --> 00:09:57.052 have very high expectations of the government. 00:09:57.052 --> 00:10:01.850 They're just victims of a long-time autocracy, 00:10:01.850 --> 00:10:04.067 expecting a paternal state 00:10:04.067 --> 00:10:06.446 to solve all their problems. 00:10:06.446 --> 00:10:10.035 But this conclusion would ignore 00:10:10.035 --> 00:10:13.185 a tectonic shift taking place in Egypt 00:10:13.185 --> 00:10:17.201 far from the cameras in Tahrir Square. 00:10:17.201 --> 00:10:20.867 And that is Egyptians' elevated expectations 00:10:20.867 --> 00:10:24.234 are placed first on themselves. NOTE Paragraph 00:10:24.234 --> 00:10:28.401 In the country once known for its passive resignation, 00:10:28.401 --> 00:10:30.267 where, as bad as things got, 00:10:30.267 --> 00:10:33.736 only four percent expressed their opinion to a public official, 00:10:33.736 --> 00:10:37.048 today 90 percent tell us 00:10:37.048 --> 00:10:39.320 that if there's a problem in their community, 00:10:39.320 --> 00:10:41.753 it's up to them to fix it. 00:10:41.753 --> 00:10:49.446 (Applause) 00:10:49.446 --> 00:10:51.249 And three-fourths 00:10:51.249 --> 00:10:54.080 believe they not only have the responsibility, 00:10:54.080 --> 00:10:57.050 but the power to make change. NOTE Paragraph 00:10:57.050 --> 00:10:59.314 And this empowerment 00:10:59.314 --> 00:11:02.246 also applies to women, 00:11:02.246 --> 00:11:03.917 whose role in the revolts 00:11:03.917 --> 00:11:06.068 cannot be underestimated. 00:11:06.068 --> 00:11:08.469 They were doctors and dissidents, 00:11:08.469 --> 00:11:10.035 artists and organizers. 00:11:10.035 --> 00:11:15.168 A full third of those who braved tanks and tear gas 00:11:15.168 --> 00:11:20.203 to ask or to demand liberty and justice in Egypt 00:11:20.203 --> 00:11:21.876 were women. NOTE Paragraph 00:11:21.876 --> 00:11:27.519 (Applause) NOTE Paragraph 00:11:27.519 --> 00:11:30.208 Now people have raised some real concerns 00:11:30.208 --> 00:11:33.874 about what the rise of Islamist parties means for women. 00:11:33.874 --> 00:11:38.158 What we've found about the role of religion in law 00:11:38.158 --> 00:11:40.674 and the role of religion in society 00:11:40.674 --> 00:11:43.660 is that there's no female consensus. 00:11:43.660 --> 00:11:47.843 We found that women in one country 00:11:47.843 --> 00:11:49.810 look more like the men in that country 00:11:49.810 --> 00:11:54.474 than their female counterparts across the border. 00:11:54.474 --> 00:11:55.992 Now what this suggests 00:11:55.992 --> 00:12:00.059 is that how women view religion's role in society 00:12:00.059 --> 00:12:05.340 is shaped more by their own country's culture and context 00:12:05.340 --> 00:12:07.855 than one monolithic view 00:12:07.855 --> 00:12:10.692 that religion is simply bad for women. 00:12:10.692 --> 00:12:14.457 Where women agree, however, 00:12:14.457 --> 00:12:16.040 is on their own role, 00:12:16.040 --> 00:12:18.573 and that it must be central and active. NOTE Paragraph 00:12:18.573 --> 00:12:23.691 And here is where we see the greatest gender difference within a country -- 00:12:23.691 --> 00:12:26.441 on the issue of women's rights. 00:12:26.441 --> 00:12:29.041 Now how men feel about women's rights 00:12:29.041 --> 00:12:32.490 matters to the future of this region. 00:12:32.490 --> 00:12:34.524 Because we discovered a link 00:12:34.524 --> 00:12:38.526 between men's support for women's employment 00:12:38.526 --> 00:12:41.725 and how many women are actually employed 00:12:41.725 --> 00:12:44.909 in professional fields in that country. NOTE Paragraph 00:12:44.909 --> 00:12:46.373 So the question becomes, 00:12:46.373 --> 00:12:50.548 What drives men's support for women's rights? 00:12:50.548 --> 00:12:57.297 What about men's views of religion and law? 00:12:57.297 --> 00:13:00.182 [Does] a man's opinion 00:13:00.182 --> 00:13:03.067 of the role of religion in politics 00:13:03.067 --> 00:13:06.716 shape their view of women's rights? 00:13:06.716 --> 00:13:07.949 The answer is no. 00:13:07.949 --> 00:13:10.834 We found absolutely no correlation, 00:13:10.834 --> 00:13:12.648 no impact whatsoever, 00:13:12.648 --> 00:13:15.183 between these two variables. 00:13:15.183 --> 00:13:18.899 What drives men's support for women's employment 00:13:18.899 --> 00:13:21.783 is men's employment, 00:13:21.783 --> 00:13:24.282 their level of education 00:13:24.282 --> 00:13:27.067 as well as a high score 00:13:27.067 --> 00:13:31.166 on their country's U.N. Human Development Index. 00:13:31.166 --> 00:13:32.357 What this means 00:13:32.357 --> 00:13:35.431 is that human development, 00:13:35.431 --> 00:13:37.727 not secularization, 00:13:37.727 --> 00:13:40.447 is what's key to women's empowerment 00:13:40.447 --> 00:13:44.131 in the transforming Middle East. NOTE Paragraph 00:13:44.131 --> 00:13:47.080 And the transformation continues. 00:13:47.080 --> 00:13:50.963 From Wall Street to Mohammed Mahmoud Street, 00:13:50.963 --> 00:13:53.020 it has never been more important 00:13:53.020 --> 00:13:55.364 to understand the aspirations 00:13:55.364 --> 00:13:57.482 of ordinary people. NOTE Paragraph 00:13:57.482 --> 00:13:59.213 Thank you. NOTE Paragraph 00:13:59.213 --> 00:14:09.399 (Applause)