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My talk today is about something

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maybe a couple of you have already heard about.

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It's called the Arab Spring.

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Anyone heard of it?

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(Applause)

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So in 2011, power shifted,

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from the few to the many,

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from oval offices to central squares,

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from carefully guarded airwaves

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to open-source networks.

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But before Tahrir was a global symbol of liberation,

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there were representative surveys

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already giving people a voice

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in quieter but still powerful ways.

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I study Muslim societies around the world at Gallup.

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Since 2001,

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we've interviewed hundreds of thousands of people --

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young and old, men and women,

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educated and illiterate.

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My talk today draws on this research

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to reveal why Arabs rose up

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and what they want now.

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Now this region's very diverse,

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and every country is unique.

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But those who revolted

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shared a common set of grievances

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and have similar demands today.

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I'm going to focus a lot of my talk on Egypt.

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It has nothing to do with the fact that I was born there, of course.

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But it's the largest Arab country

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and it's also one with a great deal of influence.

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But I'm going to end by widening the lens to the entire region

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to look at the mundane topics

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of Arab views of religion and politics

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and how this impacts women,

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revealing some surprises along the way.

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So after analyzing mounds of data,

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what we discovered was this:

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Unemployment and poverty alone

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did not lead to the Arab revolts of 2011.

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If an act of desperation by a Tunisian fruit vendor

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sparked these revolutions,

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it was the difference between what Arabs experienced

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and what they expected

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that provided the fuel.

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To tell you what I mean,

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consider this trend in Egypt.

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On paper the country was doing great.

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In fact, it attracted accolades

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from multinational organizations

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because of its economic growth.

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But under the surface was a very different reality.

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In 2010, right before the revolution,

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even though GDP per capita

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had been growing at five percent for several years,

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Egyptians had never felt worse about their lives.

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Now this is very unusual,

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because globally we find that, not surprisingly,

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people feel better as their country gets richer.

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And that's because they have better job opportunities

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and their state offers better social services.

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But it was exactly the opposite in Egypt.

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As the country got more well-off,

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unemployment actually rose

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and people's satisfaction

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with things like housing and education plummeted.

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But it wasn't just anger at economic injustice.

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It was also people's deep longing for freedom.

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Contrary to the clash of civilizations theory,

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Arabs didn't despise Western liberty,

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they desired it.

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As early as 2001,

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we asked Arabs, and Muslims in general around the world,

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what they admired most about the West.

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Among the most frequent responses

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was liberty and justice.

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In their own words to an open-ended question

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we heard, "Their political system is transparent

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and it's following democracy in its true sense."

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Another said it was "liberty and freedom

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and being open-minded with each other."

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Majorities as high as 90 percent and greater

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in Egypt, Indonesia and Iran

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told us in 2005

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that if they were to write a new constitution

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for a theoretical new country

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that they would guarantee freedom of speech

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as a fundamental right,

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especially in Egypt.

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Eighty-eight percent said moving toward greater democracy

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would help Muslims progress --

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the highest percentage of any country we surveyed.

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But pressed up against these democratic aspirations

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was a very different day-to-day experience,

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especially in Egypt.

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While aspiring to democracy the most,

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they were the least likely population in the world

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to say that they had actually voiced their opinion

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to a public official in the last month --

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at only four percent.

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So while economic development made a few people rich,

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it left many more worse off.

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As people felt less and less free,

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they also felt less and less provided for.

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So rather than viewing their former regimes

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as generous if overprotective fathers,

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they viewed them as essentially prison wardens.

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So now that Egyptians have ended Mubarak's 30-year rule,

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they potentially could be

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an example for the region.

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If Egypt is to succeed

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at building a society based on the rule of law,

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it could be a model.

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If, however,

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the core issues that propelled the revolution aren't addressed,

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the consequences could be catastrophic --

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not just for Egypt,

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but for the entire region.

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The signs don't look good, some have said.

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Islamists, not the young liberals that sparked the revolution,

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won the majority in Parliament.

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The military council

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has cracked down on civil society and protests

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and the country's economy continues to suffer.

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Evaluating Egypt on this basis alone, however,

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ignores the real revolution.

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Because Egyptians are more optimistic

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than they have been in years,

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far less divided on religious-secular lines

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than we would think

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and poised for the demands of democracy.

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Whether they support Islamists or liberals,

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Egyptians' priorities for this government are identical,

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and they are jobs, stability and education,

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not moral policing.

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But most of all,

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for the first time in decades,

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they expect to be active participants, not spectators,

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in the affairs of their country.

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I was meeting with a group of newly-elected parliamentarians

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from Egypt and Tunisia

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a couple of weeks ago.

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And what really struck me about them

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was that they weren't only optimistic,

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but they kind of struck me as nervous,

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for lack of a better word.

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One said to me,

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"Our people used to gather in cafes to watch football" --

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or soccer, as we say in America --

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"and now they gather to watch Parliament."

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(Laughter)

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"They're really watching us,

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and we can't help but worry

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that we're not going to live up to their expectations."

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And what really struck me

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is that less than 24 months ago,

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it was the people that were nervous

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about being watched by their government.

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And the reason that they're expecting a lot

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is because they have a new-found hope for the future.

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So right before the revolution

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we said that Egyptians had never felt worse about their lives,

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but not only that, they thought their future would be no better.

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What really changed after the ouster of Mubarak

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wasn't that life got easier.

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It actually got harder.

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But people's expectations for their future

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went up significantly.

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And this hope, this optimism,

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endured a year of turbulent transition.

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One reason that there's this optimism

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is because, contrary to what many people have said,

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most Egyptians think things really have changed in many ways.

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So while Egyptians were known

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for their single-digit turnout

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in elections before the revolution,

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the last election had around 70 percent voter turnout --

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men and women.

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Where scarcely a quarter believed in the honesty of elections in 2010 --

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I'm surprised it was a quarter --

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90 percent thought that this last election was honest.

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Now why this matters

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is because we discovered a link

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between people's faith in their democratic process

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and their faith that oppressed people

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can change their situation

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through peaceful means alone.

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(Applause)

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Now I know what some of you are thinking.

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The Egyptian people,

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and many other Arabs who've revolted and are in transition,

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have very high expectations of the government.

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They're just victims of a long-time autocracy,

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expecting a paternal state

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to solve all their problems.

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But this conclusion would ignore

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a tectonic shift taking place in Egypt

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far from the cameras in Tahrir Square.

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And that is Egyptians' elevated expectations

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are placed first on themselves.

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In the country once known for its passive resignation,

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where, as bad as things got,

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only four percent expressed their opinion to a public official,

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today 90 percent tell us

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that if there's a problem in their community,

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it's up to them to fix it.

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(Applause)

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And three-fourths

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believe they not only have the responsibility,

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but the power to make change.

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And this empowerment

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also applies to women,

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whose role in the revolts

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cannot be underestimated.

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They were doctors and dissidents,

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artists and organizers.

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A full third of those who braved tanks and tear gas

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to ask or to demand liberty and justice in Egypt

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were women.

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(Applause)

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Now people have raised some real concerns

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about what the rise of Islamist parties means for women.

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What we've found about the role of religion in law

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and the role of religion in society

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is that there's no female consensus.

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We found that women in one country

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look more like the men in that country

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than their female counterparts across the border.

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Now what this suggests

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is that how women view religion's role in society

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is shaped more by their own country's culture and context

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than one monolithic view

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that religion is simply bad for women.

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Where women agree, however,

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is on their own role,

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and that it must be central and active.

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And here is where we see the greatest gender difference within a country --

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on the issue of women's rights.

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Now how men feel about women's rights

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matters to the future of this region.

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Because we discovered a link

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between men's support for women's employment

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and how many women are actually employed

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in professional fields in that country.

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So the question becomes,

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What drives men's support for women's rights?

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What about men's views of religion and law?

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[Does] a man's opinion

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of the role of religion in politics

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shape their view of women's rights?

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The answer is no.

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We found absolutely no correlation,

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no impact whatsoever,

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between these two variables.

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What drives men's support for women's employment

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is men's employment,

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their level of education

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as well as a high score

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on their country's U.N. Human Development Index.

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What this means

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is that human development,

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not secularization,

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is what's key to women's empowerment

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in the transforming Middle East.

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And the transformation continues.

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From Wall Street to Mohammed Mahmoud Street,

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it has never been more important

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to understand the aspirations

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of ordinary people.

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Thank you.

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(Applause)